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DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2020 MARKET SNAPSHOT Q3 2020

As with most global markets, ’s economy rental falls compared to sales prices are resulting in and real estate market reeled under the impact of yield contractions. Lower yields coupled with the COVID-19 since late March 2020 with widespread new regulation on non-payment of service charges job losses and salary reductions seen in the ensuing in legal issues and restrictions on new private sector. While retail and hospitality sectors rentals and sales is expected to put further pressure continue to face headwinds due to a slowdown on landlords with limited liquidity. in global tourism, residential and office asset classes saw enquiries and transaction activity The office market saw increased relocation activity, levels rebound with higher volumes seen in Q3 particularly from SMEs and regional occupiers as 2020 as buyers, tenants and occupiers adjusted to most businesses adapted to market conditions. the new normal. Although this rise in transaction International corporates on the other hand are activity may be perceived positively, particularly mostly continuing to work from home for the in the residential market, it is most likely a release remainder of 2020 with their real estate decisions of pent-up demand created over Q2 2020. It deferred to 2021. We expect a second wave of would be interesting to see if these activity levels relocations in 2021 when these large corporates will be sustained over the near to mid-term as adjust their workplace strategies. positive demand drivers such as lower interest rates, increase in loan-to-value ratios, retirement While the initial adoption of widespread work from visas and fractional ownership of title deeds are home arrangement was met with enthusiasm, many implemented. enterprises are now witnessing that lack of social connections and no clear separation between Despite a raft of demand drivers and higher personal and professional life is causing loss of transaction volumes, sales prices remain at a productivity and lower levels of engagement. cyclical low, with many districts transacting nearly Although we agree that work from home will remain 35% lower than their 2014 peaks. With capital prevalent with hybrid models the largely accepted values now nearing the 2011 trough, we continue workplace strategy, the importance of the physical to see investor buyer interest remaining strong, office is unlikely to be diminished as businesses particularly for competitively priced ready units. will need common spaces to foster innovation, Historically, institutional investments have been productivity and teamwork that are hard to sustain limited in the UAE primarily due to the scarcity of through remote working. investment grade stock, despite strong demand. However, we now see institutional interest piquing The UAE government has been very proactive and as many existing developers and corporates agile in navigating through this ongoing situation are making assets available for dispositions as with unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures and occupiers look at focusing on core business lines policy reforms deployed to soften the impact on and assets. businesses while maintaining the highest standards of public health measures to curtail the spread of While residential supply handovers have slowed COVID-19. As we draw closer to the end of 2020, compared to initial forecasts, ample existing with signs of gradual revival seen across sectors, we inventory and contraction in demand is expected remain cautiously optimistic of a stronger 2021 on to keep a supply overhang in the near to mid-term. the back of ease in global travel, potential availability This along with the lingering impact of COVID-19 of vaccinations and undoubtedly the positive impact on the overall economy is expected to further created by the upcoming Expo. delay sales price and rental recovery while sharper

This publication

This document was published in October 2020. The data used in the charts and tables is the latest available at the time of going to press. Sources are included for all the charts. We have used a standard set of notes and abbreviations throughout the document.

2 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 3 Residential Market

4 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 5 DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2020

32,000 Estimated Residential Apartment vs. Villa Deliveries YTD 2020 Residential Supply Deliveries for 2020 12.000

10,000 30% Villas Dubai saw nearly 21,500 units come to market YTD Supply Delivered by Area YTD 2020 8,000 2020 (January 2020 to September 2020), bringing total residential stock to 571,500 units. Furthermore, Others 6,000 there are over 10,500 units expected to be handed 14% Dubai over in Q4 2020. Although handover volumes for Land 4,000

Downtown Number of units 25% 70% 2020 are significantly lower than the initial forecast 3% Apartments 2,000 of 49,000 units at the beginning the year, 2020 will Muhaisnah still see nearly 32,000 deliveries in total. While there 4% 0 are other factors at play such as lower realization Dubai Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 E rates over the past several years, we have seen the Sports City impact of COVID-19 cause a significant slowdown in 4% handover volumes. Source: CORE Research 4%

Major YTD 2020 villa deliveries include Noor Business Dubai Townhouses by Nshama in Townsquare, Pacifica by Bay South Damac in Akoya Oxygen (), Casa Dora 5% 13% (Serena) Villas by Dubai Properties in Dubailand, Dubai Silicon Maple 3 by Emaar in Dubai Hills Estate and Arabella Oasis 6% Transaction Market Trends 2 in Mudon (Dubailand). Prominent apartment JVC & JVT Meydan & handovers this year include Rawda and Hayat 9% MBR City Boulevard by Nshama in Townsquare, multiple 13% Transaction volumes across the secondary to the release of pent up demand. However, deliveries by MAG in , Merano Towers market and off-plan market displayed year- off-plan market activity is facing an interim lag by Damac in , Boulevard Point by on-year growth in Q1 2020, stemming from as buyers prefer ready units to avoid further Emaar in and One JBR by Dubai positive market sentiment with which we uncertainty and delays that may be expected Properties in Jumeirah Beach Residences. entered the year. As expected, due to lockdown from the off-plan market. 571,500 units 21,500 units restrictions and the overall uncertainty caused Total residential stock in Delivered YTD 2020 Dubailand and Dubai South are the leading areas Dubai as of Q3 2020 (Jan - Sept 2020) due to COVID-19, we saw a sharp decline in As pent-up demand activity gradually stabilizes by number of handovers YTD 2020, followed by transaction activity levels in Q2 2020. over Q4 2020, it would be interesting to see Meydan and MBR City. how transaction volumes perform as economic In Q3 2020, secondary market transaction sentiment recovers on the back of a host of We conservatively forecast nearly 39,000 units volumes saw a quick rebound and marginally demand drivers initiated by the government to 10,500 units for 2021, however, further downward revisions are Estimated to be handed over in Q4 2020 higher transactions than Q1 2020 volumes due spur demand. expected on supply forecasts as they will inherently depend on buyer confidence as developers continue to adjust to ongoing market conditions. Residential Transaction Market Trends

7000 Residential Deliveries in Dubai 2011 - 2021 6000 40 5000 35 39 4000 30

10.5 3000 25 32 20 2000 Number of transactions 28 15 1000 19 21.5 18 17 18 18 10 0

Number of units in thousands 12 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 5 11 Secondary market sales Off-plan sales 0 Source: REIDIN, CORE Research 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E

Source: CORE Research

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Residential Market Performance Apartment Sales Prices Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2020 The Greens Dubai Discovery JLT Dubailand DIFC Jumeirah Business Dubai Downtown Palm and The Sports Gardens Village Bay Marina Dubai Jumeirah Views City

Sales Market

Despite the rise in secondary transaction volumes, The most important recent announcement is -5% -6.2% -6% residential sales prices continue to follow a undoubtedly the retirement visa regulations which -7% downward trajectory with almost all areas showing is expected to create long-term demand as more -9% sharp double-digit year-on-year drops. resident expats and international buyers choose the -11% -12% UAE to settle down, thus contributing to sustained -13% -13% The government is implementing many demand population growth. In the mid to long-term, we drivers to spur recovery including attractive interest expect this regulation to open new real estate -16% rates and the favourable loan-to-value ratio with asset classes such as retirement communities with an increase of five percentage points for first-time integrated healthcare that are prevalent in other -19% buyers which is expected to improve affordability in mature economies while retirees can also benefit

the secondary sales mortgage market. While this is from UAE’s tax free environment for their retirement Source: CORE Research a good initiative, contraction in disposable income, funds. With a warmer climate compared to most concerns of oversupply and caution is making some European markets, world class infrastructure, end-user buyers, who were otherwise primed to excellent air connectivity and proximity to countries buy, wary of investing in current market conditions. with a higher population of aging residents, we New Service Charge Regulations expect strong demand from this demographic. Other positive measures include fractional Dubai’s Real Estate Regulatory Authority, as part of Management companies will need to provide ownership of title deeds for hotel or serviced Sustained price drops have also piqued the interest a series of regulatory reviews and improvements, transparency on where the money has been spent apartments. A fractional title deed refers to the of opportunistic buyers who are expected to take has recently announced that all owners need to and allocated in the communities and engage in division of the same unit into two or four fractional advantage of ongoing market conditions in this clear outstanding dues by October 2020. Non- communication with the owners to prevent legal shares, each having its own title deed that may be period of reduced liquidity. We are also witnessing compliance shall result in restrictions being cases. Legal cases need to be a minority and not the sold, mortgaged, or transferred as would any other some tenants who have a long term view, making imposed on renting and selling the property while standard operating procedure as the Dubai Owners property. This is a good step to drive demand, a shift from renting to owning as a form of savings legal action shall commence via the Dubai Land Association Market continues to mature. with the launch expected to increase interest and plan due to attractive entry points and easy access Department and associated channels. cater to a wider base of investors with smaller to finance. Therefore, we forecast continued We still believe that the best course of collections entry ticket sizes while offering access to premium market movement and steady transaction volumes, This is a massive step forward in regulation after is transparency and communication with owners secondary home options. With tourism gradually particularly in secondary homes, as many local nearly a decade of Jointly Owned Property to ensure sufficient cash flow management of the opening up, this model bodes well for Dubai due to and international investors are actively looking for operations in the Emirate and one that will develop Jointly Owned Property. Management companies its historically large tourist base with buyers being competitively priced assets in the market. the industry moving forward. This announcement will need to continue working with our communities incentivized to visit and stay for a longer duration by the Land Department is a welcome step for and the regulator at Dubai Land Department to as well as rent units as holiday homes. Associations to have a clear pathway and regulatory further develop the industry and the government’s support to pursue delinquent service charges objectives for the future of Dubai. which will improve confidence in the market and collections to protect assets and Associations. Villa Sales Prices Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2020

Emirates Palm The Dubailand Jumeirah The Springs Jumeirah Arabian Hills Jumeirah Lakes Village and The Park Ranches Circle Meadows

-4%

-7%

-10% -10% -10%

-13%

-15%

-18%

Source: CORE Research

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Rental Market months. Tenants can now find newer build and new stock deliveries such as Jumeriah Village Circle, occasionally bigger units at similar or lower rents and projects in Dubailand to than what they were previously paying. achieve major savings as tenants look to manage With many facing salary adjustments in the wake While landlords may not completely agree with finances in the backdrop of widespread salary of COVID-19, we have seen household income increasing tenant demands, most landlords are now We have seen some tenants upgrade to bigger units reductions. contraction in almost all income brackets. This has willing to negotiate lower rents and flexible lease or move from apartments to villas as the aftermath resulted in considerable movement in the rental terms upon renewals to retain tenants. This has led of COVID-19 has created the need for larger living Rents in apartment districts in general have fallen market with high enquiry levels witnessed in Q3 many tenants to remain in their current premises and outdoor spaces, particularly for families with sharper than villa districts with a higher share of 2020. This rise in interest is also partially attributed as they have been able to achieve rental savings children, as they accommodate current e-learning apartment districts witnessing double-digit drops. to the pent-up demand built over Q2 due to upon negotiations while avoiding uncertainty and and work from home arrangements. That said, The weakest performing apartment areas are movement restrictions. additional moving costs. most of these upgraders are actually paying lower Dubai Sports City (-20%), Dubailand (-18%), The than previous rents with very few going above Greens and The Views (-15%), and JLT (-14%). Villa Faced with a new financial reality, tenants are either However, depending upon landlord flexibility and a their previous rental outflows. It is also interesting communities witnessing the sharpest year-on-year looking to find the current (albeit corrected) rental tenants’ financial capability, many have relocated to to note that moving from apartments to villas declines are Reem-Mira and The Villa in Dubailand value of their property to help them negotiate rent achieve significant savings as rents have softened may at the outset offer lower rents, however, villas (-21%) followed by The Springs and The Meadows reductions with their landlords or relocate and markedly over the last 12 to 24 months, with a may involve hidden costs such as higher DEWA (-13%) and Jumeirah Village Circle (-12%). reduce their rental outflow. particularly sharp drop seen over the last few and maintenance charges which offset savings - something tenants should account for during With household incomes expected to remain under relocation. pressure, we foresee relocations to continue with a majority of tenants remaining price sensitive. Villa Rents Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2020 Some tenants on the other hand have downgraded or moved to outward locations which have seen Dubailand The Springs Jumeirah The Arabian Jumeirah Palm Emirates and The Village Lakes Ranches Park Jumeirah Hills Meadows Circle

4% -1% -2%

-6% -7%

-12% -13%

-21%

Apartment Rents Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2020

Dubai Dubailand The Greens JLT Business Discovery Dubai Jumeirah DIFC Palm Downtown Sports and The Bay Gardens Marina Village Jumeirah Dubai City Views

-6%

-9% -9%

-12% -12% -13% -14% -14% -15% -18% -20%

Source: CORE Research

10 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 11 Commercial Market

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Office Market Overview

Office Supply

ICD Brookfield Place was the Dubai Office Supply 2017 - 2022 most prominent handover of the year, adding nearly 1 million sq. 2.50 ft. of Grade A office space and bringing the total Dubai office stock to 104.9 million sq. ft as 2.00 of Q3 2020. It is reportedly 41% occupied (preleased and under 2.31 0.36 offer) with Ernst and Young 1.50 being the first major anchor tenant occupying nearly 100,000 2.07 sq. ft. across 5 floors. While arguably the most premium GLA in Million sq. ft. 1.00 Grade A building in Dubai, the 1.56 1.50 handover of ICD Brookfield 1.28 Place brings total Dubai office 0.50 Grade A stock to nearly 34.3 million sq. ft. There haven’t been 0.52 any prominent Grade B and C Office Rental Market Performance - deliveries over 2020 keeping the sector’s stock at 70.6 million sq. 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E ft. Built Expected Rents have been under pressure and Media City, DWTC, DAFZA average rents fall in the range across all the fifteen districts we and D3 have shown resilience of 5 - 10% year-on-year. The track. However, freezones with with nominal rental drops. Old weakest performing areas are the Dubai Office Market in Numbers predominantly single owned Dubai locations such as Deira, strata districts of Busines Bay office assets that are at relatively Bur Dubai, Garhoud and Sheikh and JLT displaying a steep 20% 104.9 million sq. ft. higher occupancy levels such Zayed Road (Trade Centre to year-on-year drop in average Total office stock as DIFC, third interchange) have seen rentals.

34.3 million sq. ft. 70.6 million sq. ft. Dubai Office Rents Q3 2020 Prime office stock Grade B & C office stock

400

350

300

250

200

20% 26% 150

100

Annual rents in AED / sq. ft. year Annual rents 50

0 Downtown SZR SZR D3 One DIFC DIC/ Barsha JLT Business Bur DAFZA Deira Garhoud DHCC Dubai (Trade (1st Central DMC/ Heights Bay Dubai Average prime office vacancy levels Grade B & C vacancy levels Center INTCHG KV to 1st to 3rd INTCHG INTCHG) Rental range Average rent AED / sq. ft.

Source: CORE Research Source: CORE Research

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Office Market Outlook Office Demand In the wake of COVID-19, we are seeing two types Office Trends of office market behavior emerge. A large section of demand is stemming from the SME sector which has seen the immediate business impact Office Occupancy of COVID-19 and has been agile in restructuring • First phase expansion is almost entirely staff and adjusting to market conditions. This limited with most demand coming from Occupancy levels contracted across the board as Total Office Occupied vs. Vacant Stock reduction of staff coupled with the need to lower downsizing or consolidation activity where first phase expansions remain limited and most office rents to reduce capital expenditure is leading tenants are looking for economical options new demand stems from downsizing or relocation to a significant rise in office enquiry levels from possible and immediate occupation. Most 120.0 activity, keeping the net absorption negative. this tenant segment. Most small businesses are transaction activity is focused in the sub Downtown and DIFC both saw the sharpest decline looking to renegotiate with current landlords 2,000 sq. ft. size. in occupancy levels (10% year-on-year drop) as 100.0 (some irrespective of lease term) or looking to significant new stock was handed over, coupled move depending upon the scale of their staff and • We continue to see a strong trend of old 19.5 24.6 25.2 with secondary stock brought to market as 19.8 spatial contraction. This segment has constituted Dubai occupiers migrating to properties occupiers relocated within the district. Properties 80.0 the majority of enquiries in the last few months located in Business Bay and Sheikh Zayed on Sheikh Zayed Road (Trade centre to first with demand focused in the sub 2,000 sq. ft. area Road 101.1 99.8

interchange) also saw their occupancy drop on an 103.5 requirements. 60.0 104.9 • A few tenants are looking to upsize, mostly average of 8% year-on-year while the remaining in media, healthcare, IT and technology districts in Dubai saw below 5% drops. Over the last few weeks, we are starting to see GLA in Million sq. ft. 80.0 81.6 78.9 79.7 sectors which have been relatively leasing enquiries from large local or regional 40.0 resistant to the impact of COVID-19 - occupiers as they gradually phase back into Of the total 104.9 million sq. ft. of office stock, albeit exploring upsizing options only if physical offices. nearly 25.2 million sq. ft. of stock is vacant, with there are significant discounts on offer. the volume of vacant stock gradually increasing 20.0 Of the multinational clients that are On the other hand, larger corporates and blue-chip over the last five years. That said, we have seen looking to move, we have seen their global occupiers are continuing to work from home or a polarizing performance amongst Grade A and headquarters directing strict budget 0.0 deploying hybrid models of work from home and Grade B areas with most of the market witnessing constraints on new leases. a flight to quality with Grade A areas typically 2017 2018 2019 2020 phased office occupancy. These large occupiers witnessing resilience in both occupancy and rental are yet to finalise their workplace strategy and • We have seen nearly 60% of small spatial drops. Approx. occupied stock Approx. vacant stock current and future spatial requirements, with many occupiers (sub 2,000 sq. ft.) enquire and deferring real estate decisions to 2021 and taking analyse the market and use this data to a wait and see approach on business performance renegotiate with current landlords and and growth. remain in their present units. Most of these Office Occupancy Q3 2019 vs. Q3 2020 renegotiations are for a one-year term as

100% 18 tenants are deferring decision-making and not wanting to commit to longer terms due 90% to business uncertainty. In other instances 16 where landlords were unable to meet 80% tenants’ expectations resulted in tenants 14 moving out to more economical units.

70% 12 • We have also seen tenants prefer relocating within the same building or 60% adjoining buildings where possible as they 10 want to minimize the impact on staff. We 50% have seen this trend in both single owned 8 and strata assets within DIFC, Tecom(DIC/ Occupancy 40% DMC) and JLT. 6 30% GLA in Million sq. ft. District • It is interesting to note that while landlords

4 are becoming increasingly flexible, some 20% are only being so if the company is financially strong. This has resulted in some 10% 2 landlords being cautious to offer discounts and a few have asked for credit checks 0% 0 or tenant qualifications on prospective Downtown SZR D3 DIFC DIC/ DAFZA Barsha JLT Business Bur Deira Garhoud DHCC tenants to safeguard themselves. Dubai (Trade DMC/ Heights Bay Dubai Center KV to 1st INTCHG) Occupancy Q1 2019 Occupancy Q3 2020 District GLA in Million sq. ft.

Source: CORE Research

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Tenant Preferences

Most tenants are preferring 1 - 3 year terms with the option to renew, with smaller firms looking mostly at a one year term. This trend is also attributed to the change in international accounting regulations with lease terms over one year now viewed as a liability on a firm’s balance sheet as per IFRS- 16 (starting in January 2019, IFRS 16 introduced a single lessee accounting model and requires a lessee to recognize assets and liabilities for all leases with a term of more than 12 months)

We have witnessed a higher preference for fully fitted and partitioned offices or CAT-A finishes (finished ceiling and raised flooring) while shell and core stock has seen limited movement as potential tenants are hesitant to invest in fit-outs and want immediate occupancy. This decision driver has led well priced, maintained, fully fitted units to witness good absorption, particularly in strata markets such as Business Bay and JLT.

While proximity to the metro has always been a draw for potential tenants, we have seen this preference be of increased importance recently with most occupiers preferring units within a 10-minute walking distance from the metro. Thus, projects further away from the metro have seen challenges in take-up.

Landlord Decision Drivers

Tenant retention remains the most critical issue or creative incentives compared to strata for all landlords as many tenants are coming landlords. However, with ample new grade A forward for rental negotiations irrespective stock available in the market, we have seen of their lease term. Some landlords who were newer single owned developments be more until now not aligned with market conditions flexible to increase initial critical occupancy. are playing catchup and struggling to close transactions and witnessing long void periods. In terms of typical lease terms, fitted options with 1 year lease term are now being offered We have seen strata landlords, particularly with 1 month rent free while for 3 year lease those with mortgaged units be very flexible terms for large spatial requirements rent-free and willing to undercut the market while single periods range between 3 - 6 months and are landlords are being relatively resilient. This dependent on tenant profile, condition of the is because most strata buildings have lower fit-out and landlord flexibility. Landlords are occupancy levels, making landlords eager providing attractive overall terms for long to attract and retain tenants whereas single leases of 5 years, although very few tenants landlord buildings have typically witnessed are going for such long leases with flexibility higher occupancy levels and attracted bigger remaining key, with most tenants asking for corporates, a distinction they wish to maintain. early break clauses with limited penalties. Single landlords, therefore, are unwilling to drop rents drastically while also wanting to Office landlords have typically taken single minimize the impact on their valuations. check payments but are now flexible for up to four cheques while capital contribution to fit- Single landlords also have standard lease terms outs are being offered in case of longer lease that are largely uniform across their assets terms of 5 - 7 years for prominent or anchor and thus are not flexible in providing offers tenants.

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