The Long March-5 Y2 rocket takes off from Wenchang Satellite Launch Center in Wenchang, Hainan Province, China in July 2017. Build on the Outer Space Treaty Fifty years on, the agreement is being pushed to its limits by changing geopolitics, technology and commercial interests, warns Joan Johnson-Freese.

n 10 October 1967, the Outer Space and rescue of spacecraft and astronauts, and Meanwhile, conventional interests of Treaty went into force. Agreed on the rules governing the exploitation of space prestige, geostrategic influence and mili- during a golden age of cooperation resources and settling disputes. tary missions in space have come to the REUTERS Obetween the then-dominant superpowers, A lot has changed since. Launch costs fore. Access to space is considered a “vital the Soviet Union and the United States, the have plummeted — from US$20,000 to send national interest” by the United States1, an treaty deems space a domain to be shared one kilogram into orbit in the late twentieth area of revitalized national interest by Rus- by all nations. It states: “The exploration and early twenty-first centuries to as little as sia, and an aspiration of China, India2 and and use of outer space, including the moon $5,000 now. And more nations, people, busi- a growing number of other countries. India and other celestial bodies, shall be carried nesses and organizations are seeking to estab- and China’s ‘space race’, crucial to each coun- out for the benefit and in the interests of all lish themselves in space. ‘NewSpace’ entities try’s national prestige, is arguably fiercer than countries, irrespective of their degree of eco- — non-governmental actors, often with even the twentieth-century US–Soviet race. nomic or scientific development, and shall commercial interests and financed through In terms of military competition, the be the province of all mankind.” personal wealth — are diversifying the space United States sees China’s encroachment on The treaty gave rise to a series of others that landscape, with motivations ranging from space as heightening the risk of a space war3. govern space today: the Rescue Agreement human settlement to economic development. China’s launch of a ‘science mission’ in May (1968), the Liability Convention (1972), SpaceX founder Elon Musk, for example, has 2013 that nearly reached geosynchronous the Registration Convention (1976) and said that becoming an interplanetary spe- orbit (about 36,000 kilometres above Earth) the Moon Agreement (1984). Although the cies is the only way for humanity to avoid an caused quiet panic in the Pentagon and in United States and Soviet Union declined to eventual extinction event on Earth, and that US intelligence circles. The United States sign the Moon Agreement, to avoid having to he wants to “die on Mars, just not on impact”. had considered that orbit a sanctuary, out of share lunar resources and technologies, most Planetary Resources, a US-based asteroid- reach of foes, for some of its most strategi- issues were seemingly covered — liability for mining company, states that its vision is to cally important spy satellites, such as those damage caused by space objects, the safety extend the economy into space. in the Keyhole series.

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COMMENT

Fifty years on, the Outer Space Treaty Global Positioning System (GPS) allowed satellite did in 2016 after 46 years of silence. and its spin-offs are still appropriate. But coalition troops and equipment to be Public organizations such as the US interpretations of its provisions are, more moved across the desert without being military’s Joint Space Operations Center than ever, being influenced by commercial detected, the US military has reaped the (JSpOC) and private bodies such as the interests and politics. Supplementary rules advantages of its advanced space-based tech- Space Data Association are making progress and norms are needed. In an era in which nologies. Satellites are used for command, on these issues, including coordination international cooperation on treaties is ten- control, communications, reconnaissance between the public and private sectors. uous, informal agreements and resolutions and intelligence. The addition of a Commercial Integration must guide space-faring actors, protect the Many countries desire similar capabilities Cell, where commercial operators are able environment and prevent wars. and are developing a wide range of ‘dual-use’ to interact with their military counterparts, space technologies, which are of value to both at JSpOC in 2015 was seen as a landmark COMPETING INTERESTS the civil and military sectors. China and Rus- in commercial–military cooperation. The United States is the largest player in sia have their own versions of GPS. Missile- Nevertheless, some satellite owners, espe- terms of space spending, capabilities and defence systems being built by the United cially intelligence agencies, are reluctant to assets in orbit. The government alone spends States, China, Russia and India use targeting share too much information. That spurs about $40 billion each year on space activi- systems similar to those required for an anti- the question of whether traffic rules for ties through the Department of Defense satellite weapon. Yet, so far, no country has operation are needed, or even accept- and NASA, with China and Russia next, at crossed the Rubicon of explicitly and offi- able. Rules restrict actions, which neither about $6 billion each. Japan, France, Ger- cially developing a space weapon. companies nor governments welcome. many, Italy, India, Canada and the United The United States has largely shunned Kingdom together spend around $11 billion. SPACE SECURITY multilateral rules for coordinating and As of 1 January, there were 1,459 satellites Two debates have broken out among limiting space operations beyond the pro- in orbit, of which 593 belong to the United space-security analysts. First, are more rules visions already in place through the Outer States, 135 to Russia and 192 to China. needed for managing the space environment Space Treaty. Three key arms-control pro- US strategic thinking will largely shape the sustainably for all? Second, is space warfare visions of the Outer Space Treaty reside in direction of future global space policies. And inevitable or how should one deter it? Article IV. First, parties should not place the 2011 US National Security Space Strategy Space-resource ownership and traffic need in orbit around Earth any objects carrying described the official US view of space as to be managed. In 2015, the US Congress nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass “congested, contested, and competitive”. enacted legislation to protect the interests destruction, install such weapons on celestial Active satellites and debris from old missions and investments of US companies, such as bodies or station them in outer space. Sec- clutter the skies. More than 500,000 pieces Planetary Resources, that seek to harvest ond, the Moon and other celestial bodies of debris, ranging in size from a baseball the potentially must be used exclusively for peaceful pur- to a school bus, are being tracked in Earth vast mineral and “Encouraging poses. And third, it is forbidden to establish orbit. Millions of smaller but nonetheless water resources of mutual military bases, installations or fortifications, dangerous pieces are not. the asteroid belt as understanding or to test any type of weapon or conduct The number of countries, consortia and early as the 2020s. and building military manoeuvres on celestial bodies. companies involved in space is growing. The Spurring Pri- trust between However, military personnel’s involve- In 1959, when the United Nations Com- vate Aerospace nations is ment in scientific research or other peaceful mittee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Competitiveness crucial.” endeavours is not prohibited. Many early (COPUOS) was formed, there were 24 and Entrepreneur- astronauts and cosmonauts were members members. Today, there are 84. Although ship Act of 2015, or SPACE Act, entitles US of the military. Similarly permitted is the use few countries can afford to develop their citizens to “possess, own, transport, use and of military equipment or facilities for peace- own launch capabilities, none wishes to be sell” extracted materials, subject to the obli- ful purposes. But the dual-use nature of left out of the expanding information age gations of the United States under the various many space technologies means that civilian facilitated by space technology. Data that treaties it has previously signed4. efforts often concurrently improve military were once available only to or through gov- Some argue that this act violates Article II capabilities. For example, developing track- ernments, such as remotely sensed data, are of the Outer Space Treaty. It states: “Outer ing stations for human spaceflight missions now available through private companies. space, including the moon and other celestial also improves missile-tracking ability. The Commercial communications satellites bodies, is not subject to national appropria- many definitions of peaceful — ranging increasingly carry military traffic. In 2013, tion by claim of sovereignty, by means of use from non-military to non-offensive — have US troops operating in Africa began using a or occupation, or by any other means.” Even allowed space to slip through the cracks of Chinese Apstar-7 satellite to carry data. without making territorial claims, appro- arms-control efforts since 1984. Almost 50 commercial and non-profit priation of resources could restrict access to Although weapons of mass destruction organizations are listed in the informal resources for others and potentially encour- are banned in space, weapons in general directory of the Space Frontier Foundation age environmentally risky exploitation of the are not. Releasing energy or kinetic force in Arlington, Virginia, which is committed Moon, planets and asteroids. in space, through lasers and electromag- to facilitating the human settlement of space. Space-traffic management is the netic pulses, flak or collisions, can pollute These companies are exploring ideas from equivalent of air-traffic control. It is in no the orbital environment for decades. From satellite refuelling to mining asteroids for one’s interest to have thousands of planes fly- the 1962 US Starfish Prime test of nuclear water and providing extraterrestrial human ing around unchecked, and so is the case with weapons in space to the more recent anti- habitats, among other projects. satellites. You need to know where they are satellite weapons test carried out by China The main driver of change in US think- and where they will be. Traffic-management in 2007, the debris created can take decades ing about space security is the number systems must be able to notify parties of to clear. The 2007 Chinese test generated of countries that are developing capabili- potential collisions and events, such as when some 3,000 pieces of space debris through ties with potential military uses. Since the a satellite ‘goes rogue’ and is beyond control, some of the most populated low-Earth-orbit 1990–91 Gulf War, when the use of the or suddenly comes back to life, as the LES-1 positions. As more satellites switch off and

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COMMENT remnants break up, space becomes more difficult, expensive and dangerous to use. The International Space Station, for example, has had to manoeuvre several times to avoid colliding with space junk. Since the contentious May 2013 Chinese launch, the United States has shifted its posi- tion on space warfare. Previously, its stance was strategic restraint, refraining from TIMES/GETTY ANGELES AL SEIB/LOS introducing offensive space capabilities in the hope of moderating the behaviour of friends and potential foes; since 2013 it has been preparing for war in space, whatever that might look like. US officials are now actively exploring offensive and defensive space-based activities, with the only caveat being to avoid creating debris. In 2008 and again in 2014, China and Russia submitted a joint proposal to the United Nations for a Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force Against Sir Richard Branson presents Virgin Galactic SpaceShipTwo, part of the company’s space-travel efforts. Outer Space Objects, dubbed the PPWT. Each time, the United States rejected the pro- The first focus of an analogous set of space kind of space environment envisioned in posal as “fundamentally flawed”. Among the guidelines should be environmental protec- the Outer Space Treaty. US–Russian coop- reasons cited are that it is unverifiable — it is tion and debris avoidance, areas that most eration on the International Space Station difficult to define a space weapon owing to spacefaring nations agree on. Governments has shown that when terrestrial tensions get the dual-use nature of most of the technol- are engaged in groups such as the 13-mem- high, working together can maintain ties. ogy; it does not prohibit the development ber Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Coordination is easier than cooperation and stockpiling of space arms; and it does not Committee (IADC). The 84-member when there are technology-transfer concerns. consider ground-based space weapons, such COPUOS works through two subsidiary Proposing a big mission and inviting other as that demonstrated by the Chinese in 2007. bodies to develop best practices for sustain- countries to join would give the US human Rather than shift to aggressive policies, ing the space environment, including miti- spaceflight programme a direction, as well as nations should instead show further restraint gating debris. COPUOS working groups serving strategic purposes. A crewed fly-by and cooperation. will begin meeting again in January 2018 mission of Venus and Mars, for example, has to continue developing best practices, with been on the table since the days of the Apollo THE WAY FORWARD new proposals to be presented to the com- missions and could yet be resurrected. An Space laws need to be updated for our time. mittee in June 2018. Commercial perspec- encouraging example is the ‘space armada’ Extending the Outer Space Treaty or writing tives should be included through national of coordinated missions to study Halley’s a new one is unlikely to work, as US hesi- delegations and external observers. comet in 1986, involving the Soviet Union, tancy to sign the PPWT shows. ‘Soft law’, Politicization of any guiding principles European Space Agency and Japan. driven by need, seems the best option for must be resisted, for example, by seeking With the expansion of national and revising the rules for space operators. consensus. The IADC Steering Committee commercial space activities, the Outer Space Soft law comprises rules or guidelines that releases information and materials to the Treaty will be stretched to its limits. In that have legal significance but are not binding. public only when all parties agree, and it regard, it will be serving its intent — pav- It sets standards of conduct for agreeing works through sub-committees operat- ing the way for the peaceful exploration and parties, much like those that protect the ing from a technical rather than a politi- development of space. ■ environment and endangered species. ‘Rules cal perspective. COPUOS discussions are of the road’ and best practices for space progressing, albeit slowly. Joan Johnson-Freese is a professor of should be developed. These could take a Encouraging mutual understanding and national-security affairs and chair of science, similar form to the navigation guidelines set building trust between nations is crucial space and technology at the Naval War out in the 1972 Convention on International to avoid conflict. It is impossible to verify College, Newport, Rhode Island, USA. Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, exactly what is happening in space if a sat- e-mail: [email protected] which govern when one vessel should give ellite ceases to function: has there been an 1. Joseph, R. G. ‘Remarks on the President’s way to another, as well as other interactions. intentional attack, an act of nature or a tech- National Space Policy — Assuring America’s Soft law works when it is in the inter- nical glitch? This problem of distance and the Vital Interests’ (Center for Space and Defense est of all parties to abide by it. If countries nature of dual-use technology create ripe cir- Forum, 11 January 2007); available at http:// and companies want to maintain the space cumstances for mishaps. Transparency and go.nature.com/2km4nzs 2. Moltz, J. C. Nature 480, 171–173 (2011). environment as a usable domain, then it is confidence-building measures developed 3. Colby, E. From Sanctuary to Battlefield: A in their interests to accommodate a variety in 2013 by the UN-sponsored Group of Framework for a U.S. Defense and Deterrence of operations. Space is more complex to Governmental Experts are designed to help Strategy from Space (Center for a New American manage than air, land or sea because of the avoid misunderstanding and miscalculations Security, 2016); available at http://go.nature. distance, physics and technology involved. and should be widely adopted. com/2hjrajs 4. Nelson, T. G. ‘Billionaires Race for Space, But Just as in the cyber domain, technology has A coordinated human spaceflight mission, Just Who Owns the Cosmos?’ CNBC Disruptor 50 preceded regulation, making it difficult to in which different nations work together (29 August 2016); available at http://go.nature. impose after the fact. towards a common goal, could build the com/2yfwlnf

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