UK £2 Issue 240, Year 5 EU €2.50 January 19, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com US warns of New role The legacy ‘real risk’ from of Brotherhood for Russia in ? Qaboos Page 2 Page 13, 19 Pages 4, 8 Iran sends hard-line message, defends adventurism abroad

Thomas Seibert enemies now includes not only Americans but also Europeans. He told thousands of Iranians who Istanbul chanted “Death to America” that European countries could not be

a rd-line messages deliv- trusted after they initiated a nuclear ered by Iran’s top leaders agreement dispute mechanism. hint at continued policies On January 15, Iranian President Hof adventurism abroad but Hassan Rohani had warned that seem unlikely to quell popular un- European troops in the Middle East rest on the streets or end Tehran’s “may be in danger” after the dispute growing isolation internationally, mechanism was triggered. observers said. In recent demonstrations, Khame- In his first Friday prayers sermon nei and the IRGC have come under in eight years, Iranian Supreme unprecedented attacks showing Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did they are not immune to the ire of the not address attacks by demonstra- discontented public. tors targeting him and the clerical Protesters across Iran, furious over establishment. He said Iran’s “en- the downing of the plane and days of emies” — a term usually used to refer denial by the government, directed to the United States and its allies — their fury at Khamenei. “Death to tried to use the downing of Ukraine the dictator,” footage circulating International Airlines Flight 752 by on social media showed protesters the Islamic Revolutionary Guard shouting. Corps (IRGC) to shift attention from the death of Qassem Soleimani, a key general, killed by the US military. Khamenei’s discourse is Authorities initially concealed unlikely to quell popular their role in the airliner tragedy unrest on the streets or end blaming the crash on a technical Tehran’s growing isolation War vortex. A fighter loyal to the Turkey-backed Government of National Accord fires shots during problem. Their admission of re- internationally, observers clashes with the Libyan National Army in Tripoli’s suburb of Ain Zara. (AFP) sponsibility triggered days of street said. protests, which security forces dis- persed with live ammunition and Video showed students chanting tear gas. “Clerics get lost!” outside universities Fears grow over Turkey’s Khamenei called the shootdown of in Isfahan and Tehran. “They killed the plane a “bitter accident” but the our elites and replaced them with 80-year-old cleric offered no apology. clerics,” demonstrators chanted in Praising Soleimani, Khamenei de- Tehran, referring to Iranian students transfer of jihadists, fended the adventurist policies he returning to Canada who were among carried out. He said his actions be- those killed on the Ukrainian flight. yond Iran’s borders were in the ser- Rezaee said the downing of the vice of the “security” of the country. Ukrainian plane had discredited the mercenaries to He added that al-Quds Force, the IRGC. The Tehran air disaster had IRGC’s foreign intervention arm shown “that they can’t even tell a that was led by Soleimani, could missile from a passenger plane,” he In Europe and the Maghreb, there is concern the inflow take action against Iran’s adversar- said. ies abroad. Al-Quds Force, Khameini The IRGC was criticised and of Syrian fighters could widen regional insecurity. said, “protects people across the re- mocked by demonstrators, added gion”. He added: “They are fighters Rezaee, who runs the news website Lamine Ghanmi Turkey on its way to Libya and Claudia Gazzini, a senior Libya without borders.” perspective-iran.com. “This is some- Islamic militants from the “Sham analyst with the International Cri- He repeated Iran’s aim of driving thing new for Iran,” he said. Legion” were expected to be sent sis Group, noted that “anti-Turk- the United States from the Middle Despite Khameini’s defence of Tunis to the North African country. ish sentiment is already strong East, calling US President Donald adventurist and anti-Western goals, The Syrian Observatory for Hu- because of Ankara’s intervention Trump “a clown.” Iran’s latest showdown with the he quickening pace of in- man Rights put the figure of trans- and could grow as a result of this, Omid Rezaee, an Iranian journalist United States comes at a precarious ternational mediations ferred mercenaries at 1,750 and playing in Haftar’s favour,” re- in , said Khamenei’s speech time for authorities in Tehran and in the Libyan conflict re- said an additional 1,500 were be- ferring to Libyan National Army carried the expected hard-line mes- their allies across the Middle East, as T flects increasing wariness ing trained in Turkey. Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. sage. sanctions imposed by Trump have over the risk of the war morphing The Guardian reported that Experts said Turkey is trying to “I don’t think things will change caused deep harm to the Iranian into a regional conflict with un- the mercenaries were to be paid bolster Islamist forces and their after this sermon. Khamenei neither economy. predictable repercussions after $2,000 a month and were prom- faltering militant allies in Tripoli succeeded in boosting the morale of Turkey started transferring jihad- ised Turkish nationality. but Seth Frantzman, a fellow with his supporters nor in scaring his op- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly ists and mercenaries to the strife- More concern was voiced in Lib- the Middle East Forum in Phila- ponents and critics.” correspondent. stricken North African country, ya’s immediate neighbourhood. delphia, said Ankara also seeks ad- Khamenei’s speech indicated officials and experts said. Tunisian terrorism expert Alaya ditional benefits. Turkey can use that the circle of the regime’s direct P2,5,14,17 “Several thousand fighters Allani said the intrusion of fight- its “mercenary army” to “wring have left the Syrian area of Idlib ers from would prolong war deals from Russia” or just keep through the northern border with in Libya, “allowing [the Islamic the Syrian fighters “distracted by a Turkey and have ended up in Lib- State] ISIS and al-Qaeda members new jihad so that they don’t make ya,” Jordanian King Abdullah II to widen the scope of security trouble in Syria for Turkey.” said earlier this month. chaos, which can affect Libya’s The major risk is that “this will French President Emmanuel neighbours.” transform the war in Libya from Macron told France 24 that “if this ’s military, which is on internal strife into a national war information is confirmed, this is alert at the border with Libya, of liberation against a foreign very worrisome” as it “connects staged a major drill January 14, presence and will make the search two theatres of operations” — combining air and land forces for a political solution more diffi- North and the Middle East simulating tactical responses to a cult,” said Allani. — and would facilitate the emer- jihadist attack on an oil facility. In the immediate term, more gence of “terrorist hubs” in Afri- “The neighbouring countries bloodshed is feared. In unfamiliar ca’s Sahel region and Libya. like Chad, , Algeria, Tuni- terrain, the mercenaries could be A report by the Guardian news- sia, , fellow AU members war fodder. The Syrian Observato- paper stated that “2,000 fighters and beyond are suffering the con- ry said 19 mercenaries from vari- had moved from Turkey or will sequences” of the crisis, said Ebba ous pro-Turkish Syrian factions arrive imminently to fight on the Kalondo, a spokeswoman for the were killed in Libya. battlefields of Libya.” African Union (AU). The newspaper said 650 Turkey- Many experts said the trans- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab funded “Syrian National Army” fers would lead to additional tur- Weekly correspondent in Tunis. fighters arrived in Tripoli at the bulence in Libya as pro-Turkish end of December. Another con- factions have been suspected of Embattled. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tingent of 1,350 men crossed into abuses in Syria. P3,6-7,16 delivers a sermon during Friday prayers in Tehran, January 17. (AP) 2 January 19, 2020 Top news Pompeo warns of ‘real risk’ from Muslim Brotherhood in Middle East

The Arab Weekly staff The question arose in Washing- ton last April after US President Donald Trump said he was con- London sidering the designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist S Secretary of State organisation. The move followed a said the meeting Trump had with Egyptian Trump administration is President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. U considering designating In a statement, Sarah Huckabee the Muslim Brotherhood as a ter- Sanders, the White House press rorist organisation, saying there is secretary, said April 30: “The pres- “real risk” from the Brotherhood ident has consulted with his na- in countries throughout the Mid- tional security team and leaders in dle East. the region who share his concern “The administration’s still look- and this designation is working its ing at this, trying to evaluate, try- way through the internal process.” ing to make sure that we get it Pompeo, in the speech at Stan- right,” Pompeo said in a speech ford, pointed out the administra- January 13 at Stanford University’s tion was working on legal details of Hoover Institution on War, Revolu- the issue. tion and Peace. “We just want to make sure that “I don’t know how that will ulti- we get it right, that we calibrate mately be resolved but I do know this appropriately, that we make there is real risk from the Mus- sure that we’ve got the legal foun- lim Brotherhood in many nations dation for this,” he said. throughout the Middle East and we He explained there is “deep and ought to do our part, I hope along- robust and important” work to be side our European friends as well.” done “before we designate an indi- Pompeo, then a member of the vidual or a group as a terrorist or- US House of Representatives from ganisation.” Kansas, was among eight legisla- “It is — it’s perhaps a bit more nu- tors who sponsored the Muslim anced than I appreciated as a mem- Brotherhood Terrorist Designation ber of Congress from Kansas,” he Act in 2015 asking the Obama ad- added. ministration to label the Brother- In 2013, the Egyptian govern- hood a terrorist organisation. ment had declared the Brother- US Senator Ted Cruz, a Republi- hood a “terrorist group.” In addi- can from Texas, introduced a bill tion to Egypt, several countries, in 2017 to designate the Muslim including Russia, the United Arab Brotherhood a terrorist organisa- Emirates, and Bah- tion and pushed for it again last rain, have designated the Brother- Doing it right. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, fall. hood as a terrorist organisation. California, January 13. (AP) Iran threatens EU troops in Five killed in Sudan Middle East after E3 nations security agency pressure Tehran on nuclear accord insurrection

The Arab Weekly staff Boris Johnson said it was time for to salvage the nuclear deal. Jay Deshmukh and a military wing in the intelligence a “Trump deal” — a reference to Iran says it should not be bound agency whose job is essentially “to Abdelmoneim Abu Idris Ali US President Donald Trump — to to the agreement since the United gather information and analyse it.” London replace it. States reimposed crippling sanc- “Forty members involved in the Iran accused Europeans of yield- tions. incident have surrendered. We have ranian President Hassan Ro- ing to US pressure to impose a 25% “We are enriching more uranium formed a committee to investigate hani warned that European tariff on European automobile im- than before the deal was reached,” ive people, including two the issue,” he said on state television. troops in the Middle East “may ports if they did not formally ac- Rohani said in a televised speech. soldiers, were killed as gov- Government spokesman Faisal I be in danger” after Britain, cuse Iran of breaking the nuclear “Pressure has increased on Iran ernment forces crushed a Mohamed Saleh said the rebellion France and Germany challenged deal. but we continue to progress.” F mutiny by members of the was carried out by NISS agents who Tehran over exceeding the limits “Appeasement confirmed. E3 country’s security agency. rejected their retirement pay offered of its 2015 nuclear agreement. He sold out remnants of #JCPOA to Highlighting the fragility of Su- as part of a restructuring plan pro- also boasted there was “no limit” avoid new Trump tariffs. It won’t “Tomorrow the European dan’s security situation nine months posed by the new authorities. to Iran’s enrichment of uranium. work my friends. You only whet soldier could be in danger,” after long-time dictator Omar al- Burhan’s deputy, General Moham- European countries have troops his appetite. Remember your high Rohani said. Bashir was ousted during mass pro- ed Hamdan Daglo, blamed Gosh for in Afghanistan, Iraq and other re- school bully?” Iranian Foreign tests, heavy gunfire broke out Janu- the rebellion. Gosh, a key figure in al- gional countries where they often Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif Rohani said January 16 that ary 14 at several intelligence agency Bashir’s regime, stepped down days operate alongside much larger US wrote on Twitter. there was “no limit” to Iran’s en- bases. after al-Bashir was toppled. deployments. Iran is allied with The dispute mechanism begins richment of uranium following The military said two soldiers were armed proxies in Iraq, Syria, Leba- a complex diplomatic process that its decision to abandon its nu- killed when the regular army and non and . could result in UN sanctions on clear agreement commitments in a paramilitary group stormed the The mutiny in Sudan The threat was made by Rohani Iran “snapping back” into place. In response to the killing of Iranian bases. Doctors close to a protest um- reflected the fragility of its after European countries started a triggering the dispute mechanism, Major-General Qassem Soleimani brella group said three civilians were democratic transition. dispute process over Iran breaking the European coun- in a US air strike January 3. killed by gunfire near a base in south- limits from the accord. It marked tries said they were In a speech before the heads of ern Khartoum. Soon after the rebellion was de- the first time Rohani threatened not backing a US banks, Rohani said the nuclear On January 15, General Abdel feated, Burhan said: “We will not al- Europe amid tensions with the policy of “maxi- programme is in a “better situ- Fattah al-Burhan, chairman of the low any coup against the Sudanese United States, which unilaterally mum pressure” ation” than it was before the country’s transitional ruling council, revolution. We will protect this tran- withdrew from the nuclear agree- on Iran and nuclear agreement. announced on state TV that intelli- sition term and anyone who tries to ment in May 2018. they hoped US sanctions, however, con- gence service chief General Abu Bakr disturb the security and stability of “Today, the American soldier is tinue to hammer Iran’s econ- Mustafa had resigned. citizens will be defeated.” in danger. Tomorrow the European omy. Washington had aimed to The violent unrest came as agents Khartoum International Airport soldier could be in danger,” Roha- reduce Tehran’s oil exports to zero. of the General Intelligence Service — reopened January 15 after authori- ni said at a January 15 cabinet A report from the Institute known as the National Intelligence ties closed it when the shooting meeting. of International Finance, and Security Service (NISS) under al- erupted. An NISS base is near the Britain, France and Ger- a global association Bashir — rejected a retirement plan airport. Production has resumed at many — the so-called E3 of financial institu- proposed by the transitional govern- two oil fields in the western region — spent months trying to tions, estimated ment. of Darfur after government forces re- accommodate Iran and that Iran’s economy “We decided to storm the bases to took them, Oil Minister Adel Ibrahim preserve the 2015 nu- will contract more end this rebellion… We have now tak- told state television. clear deal but, on Janu- than 7% in the fis- en control of these bases,” Sudanese “Sudan needs to figure out how to ary 14, the European cal year that ends Chief-of-Staff Lieutenant-General dismantle the deep state’s security Union initiated a dispute in March, mostly Osman Mohamed al-Hassan said. forces and deal with their members,” resolution mechanism to because of the Burhan said the rebellion was said Saeed Sadek, a political analyst force Iran into compli- drop in crude launched by the military wing of in Cairo. “They are powerful, capa- ance after Tehran began Politics of threats. A handout picture provided by the Iranian oil exports. NISS, which was set up by the agen- ble of creating civil war and subvert- openly breaching restric- presidency shows the Islamic Republic’s President Hassan Rohani cy’s former chief Salah Gosh under ing the transition.” tions last summer. leading a cabinet meeting in Tehran, January 15. (AFP) (With news al-Bashir’s regime. He said the new British Prime Minister agencies) authorities do not see the need for (Agence France-Presse) January 19, 2020 3 Top news

International momentum over Libya intensifies as do questions about Turkey’s role

Michel Cousins tives and an ally of Haftar because they wanted to ensure that a ceasefire would be accepted by all Libyan fac- Tunis tions. However, for Haftar, Mishri and ver since the Libyan National Kahaili are militants who represent Army began its offensive last everything he is fighting. He regards April to seize Tripoli from the both as members of the Muslim Broth- E UN-recognised Government erhood, although Mishri formally re- of National Accord, the near stalemate signed his membership a year ago. on the military front has been accom- Haftar, while refusing to join Sar- panied by paralysis on the political raj in signing the truce accord, agreed side. to go to Berlin and continue with the Recently, however, there has been ceasefire. While there have been small an almost frenetic international move- violations, there have not been missile ment to bring about a ceasefire and a strikes or bombings. An uneasy calm settlement. This time it was not the had returned to Tripoli. French or the Italians or the United Neither side has changed its de- Nations or the Americans who pushed mands in the past nine months. Sar- the political restart button, it was the raj wants the LNA to withdraw. Haf- Turks and Russians. tar wants the militias and the various militants and Islamists, including the Muslim Brotherhood, to be crushed. “When will the Turks Both have also determined supporters leave?” is a question asked who will not willingly accept any com- Making voices heard. Lebanese anti-government protesters head towards the house of ’s prime by Libyans, including promise. minister-designate during a demonstration in , January 14. (AFP) officials in Tripoli. The difference between now and the first days of January is that the in- Because of their active involvement ternational community has seized the in the conflict — Russian mercenaries moment in hopes of building on it in Lebanon protests turn fighting for the Libyan National Army Berlin. (LNA) and Turkey’s military backing Bigger issues are expected that go for the Government of National Ac- way beyond the Berlin Conference. cord (GNA) — the two have become the Russia and Turkey, by acting in con- main external players in Libya and the cert, have established themselves as violent as ‘one-sided’ chief arbiters of the country’s future. the dominant foreign players in Libya. Triggered by significant LNA ad- Will other powers, especially the Unit- vances in October and then by a ed States, accept that? military support agreement between Questions are being asked as to what government preps cabinet the GNA and Turkey, as well as their Turkey’s future role will be. What will maritime boundaries agreement that Russia’s role be? What does either of Samar Kadi Nabil Bou Moncef, deputy editor- ment, amid the increasingly angry turned an infuriated Greece into a them want from Libya? in-chief and leading columnist of protests and free-falling economy. close ally of the LNA, momentum “When will the Turks leave?” That An Nahar newspaper, said a govern- Politicians, don’t blame the people, gained speed almost as soon as 2020 question was asked January 16 by a Beirut ment of technocrats linked to spe- blame yourselves for this dangerous started. senior Tripoli official who did not want cific politicians who represent one chaos,” Kubis posted on Twitter. The Turkish parliament decision to be named but who was strongly op- rotesters returned to the camp ( and allies) has lit- International donors have been January 2 to authorise the deploy- posed to Haftar. That day Erdogan had streets of Lebanon in large tle chance to succeed. demanding that Lebanon institute ment of Turkish forces in Libya was stated that Turkish forces were going numbers in what they “The international community, major economic changes and anti- followed six days later when Turk- to Libya in support of the GNA. P dubbed the “week of wrath” namely the West, will tell you this corruption measures and appoint a ish President Recep Tayyip Erdog- The official welcomed Turkish inter- to vent anger and frustration at the is Hezbollah’s government,” Bou new government to unlock $11 bil- an and Russian President Vladimir vention if there was no ceasefire or dia- country’s economic downward spi- Moncef said. lion in pledges made in 2018. Putin called for a ceasefire to start logue. He wanted Haftar to be defeat- ral amid delays in the formation of Violent demonstrators have most- January 12. ed but he said he was concerned the an emergency government capable ly targeted central bank Governor LNA Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar Turks might overstay their welcome. of stemming the financial crisis. The protesters have Riad Salame and banks, which have initially rejected the call but then ac- Proud of his country and jealous of Protesters blocked roads around escalated their action in the imposed capital controls on foreign cepted the ceasefire deal, following its independence, his said his fear was Beirut and clashed with anti-riot streets to express their currency accounts in the highly dol- what is believed to have been intense that Turkish forces would not leave if police near Banque du Liban, the rejection of a partisan larised economy. The local currency pressure from Moscow. they forced the LNA to retreat. He dis- central bank, smashing windows government, which they say has lost more than 60% of its value On January 13, Haftar and GNA liked Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism and of banks and foreign exchange bu- is veiled by technocrats. in just a few weeks and sources of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj trav- did not want Libya to slip back into reaus along adjacent Hamra Street, foreign currency have dried up. elled to Moscow to negotiate ceasefire Turkish control. a commercial and banking hub. “Any government today can only “The public at large has been terms. It was also announced that the Others in Tripoli have been saying The most violent clashes since the succeed in one of two cases: If it harmed by the banks’ restrictive much-delayed Berlin Conference, pro- the same. anti-government uprising, which stops the economic collapse by its policies and these constitute the posed by Germany last summer and Another question he and others erupted October 17, occurred as own means, which no government majority of the people protesting scheduled for November would hap- asked was how, if there was a deal, protests, which flared after a weeks- can do, or if it gains international against banks and the central bank pen on January 19. could Sarraj work with the Tripoli mili- long lull during end-of-year holi- support and financial aid… An ad- governor,” Bou Moncef said. Germany wanted to maintain the tias or the militants? “He does not have days, followed by soaring regional ministration representing Hezbol- “I believe that political parties momentum, fearing that delay could the power to disarm them. Who is go- tensions between the United States lah and company cannot get such linked to the Syrian regime are ma- derail international efforts to bring ing to do it? Someone else will have to and Iran, regained intensity despite assistance. It might only buy some nipulating the issue. Syria is even about peace. It did not want to allow do it,” the official said. the reported imminent formation of time,” he said. more harmed than Lebanon by the either the Libyan or the international A growing worry for the future is the a government. The protesters have escalated banking restrictions because Sala- players time to make alternative plans. position of Libyans descended from Lebanese Prime Minister-desig- their action in the streets to express me’s measures curbed drastically That the Moscow meeting failed those who settled in what is now Libya nate , who was nomi- their rejection of a partisan govern- the smuggling of dollar banknotes because Haftar refused to sign any during the period of the Ottoman Em- nated by Hezbollah and its allies, ment, which they say is veiled by to Syria. Among those arrested in deal was inconsequential. He did not pire. the Shia Amal Movement and the technocrats. the protests and vandalism against want a ceasefire because it would put a Concerns have been growing that Christian Free Patriotic Movement “They cannot fool the people the banks, there are several Syrian stop to his military objectives. He also they, especially those in Misrata, are of President , reported- by bringing in their own consult- nationals.” would not accept the demand by Sar- being singled out as an issue in the ly reached a government lineup af- ants. That is not an independent Police have been accused of ex- raj that the LNA withdraw to its posi- conflict, either being blamed for sup- ter month-long thorny discussions. government. They are ignoring the cessive use of force against protest- tions prior to April 4 — tantamount to porting the GNA and the Muslim “It is a one-sided government people’s demand amid the increas- ers, including attacks on journalists an admission of military failure — or Brotherhood and accused of trying to made up of Hezbollah and its allies. ingly angry protests and free-falling and the detention of more than 100 Sarraj’s refusal of Haftar’s demand that control the country or seen as a reason The so-called technocrats are just a economy,” Bou Moncef said. people. the militias and militants in Tripoli be to intervene. facade or masks behind which the “In addition to the Lebanese, However, people who fear their disbanded. Erdogan has further complicated politicians are hiding,” said political they are alienating the international bank deposits are in danger are not Haftar was reportedly furious at the the issue by saying that Turkey had to analyst Rached Fayed. “The people community, which just cannot be- budging. presence in Moscow of other Libyans defend “Turkish” Libyans. “It is our are against such government be- lieve that there could be such care- “We are worried about losing our invited by the Russians, specifically duty to protect our kin in Libya,” he cause they want a fully independ- less and corrupt politicians amid savings… Lebanon is not an easy the Tripoli-based High said. The Turkish leader has sparked ent administration. There is a total deepening economic crisis.” country to save in,” a protester who Chairman Khaled al-Mishri and Sadiq a debate about a newly perceived divorce between the Lebanese pub- UN Special Coordinator for Leba- was among those demonstrating al-Kahaili, the head of the breakaway minority in Libya, one that is seen by lic and the political class.” non Jan Kubis reflected the grow- outside the central bank told the As- House of Representatives also in Trip- some as alien and a controversial issue Protesters have demanded a gov- ing frustration of the international sociated Press. “We don’t trust the oli. to an already nearly intractable debate. ernment of technocrats excluding community in a series of strongly banks here anymore.” The Russians invited them and the well-known names that have worded tweets. Aguila Saleh, president of the Tobruk- Michel Cousins is an Arab Weekly symbolised Lebanon’s sectarian- “Another day of confusion Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly Travel based official House of Representa- contributor on Libyan issues. based politics for generations. around the formation of a govern- and Society section editor. 4 January 19, 2020 Top news

Smooth transition in after the passing of Qaboos

Shatha Yaish

Dubai

ith the death of Oman’s 79-year-old sultan and the swift W appointment of his like-minded cousin Al Said, 65, as his succes- sor, observers said the sultan- ate appears on track to retain its treasured status as a neutral me- diator. To do so, Sultan Haitham will need to navigate tricky geopoliti- Change of the guard. Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, after being sworn in as Oman’s new leader, January 11. (AFP) cal terrain as well as address eco- nomic challenges facing his own the country and maintain its dip- power,” said Kristin Diwan, of In a region where the push and bia and its ally the United Arab country. lomatic standing. the Arab Gulf States Institute in pull between Iran and Saudi Ara- Emirates embroiled in a grinding In his first speech as the Omani “The sultanate of Oman will Washington. bia is constant, analysts say it is 5-year-old conflict in Yemen, is leader, Sultan Haitham pledged no doubt continue to follow the Sultan Qaboos, slight in stat- in Oman’s interests to signal the showing signs of dialling back. to follow in the footsteps of his same policy, from which it has ure but usually resplendent in transition does not present an op- Oman refrained from joining influential predecessor. He ex- benefited so much,” said Bader sumptuous robes and colourful portunity for one of the powers to the Saudi-led coalition fight- pressed support for “our coun- al-Saif, an assistant professor at turbans, was synonymous with pull it to its side. ing Iran-backed Houthi rebels in try’s foreign policy of peaceful University and a fellow at Oman’s international profile and Sultan Haitham has an “inter- Yemen and leveraged that neu- living among nations and peo- the Carnegie Middle East Centre. many of the tributes since his est to present himself as someone trality to mediate the release of ples… and not interfering in the The royal family’s prompt an- death struck a warm and personal who is going to… continue the foreign hostages. It also remained internal affairs of others” and nouncement is a “message to its note. legacy of a leader, such as [Sul- neutral in the boycott against Qa- he said Oman would continue to citizens and neighbours to say tan] Qaboos, who was considered tar mounted by Saudi Arabia and “promote peaceful solutions” to that the situation is under con- to be successful,” said Sanam Va- its allies that saw diplomatic and regional and global crises. trol,” he said. The speed of the transition kil, from Chatham House think- transport ties cut in June 2017. Sultan Al Said, Apart from guiding Oman’s for- is seen as a sign that Sultan tank in London. “There is a strong rationale for who died January 10 at the age of eign policy, Sultan Haitham faces Haitham has the backing “The message of continuity is balance and neutrality, rooted in 79, was unmarried and had no ap- the task of rolling out “Vision needed to steer the country very important because Oman its geography looking towards the parent heir, meaning that succes- 2040,” a plan for social and eco- and maintain its diplomatic faces economic vulnerabilities Arabian Sea and history of inde- sion was decided in a meeting of nomic reforms designed to ad- standing. as well as challenges within the pendence from Gulf neighbours,” the royal family, whose members dress high deficits, international (Gulf) with anxieties about the Diwan said. “The new leadership opted to open a sealed letter the debt and youth unemployment. Observers said that, despite his past few years, where we’ve seen will draw strongly upon Sultan sultan had prepared, detailing his “The best guarantor of Oman’s personal profile, Oman’s diplo- a very assertive Emirati and Saudi Qaboos’s authority as it looks to preference. neutrality will be a success- matic expertise and its willing- foreign policy.” navigate the difficult regional con- The speed of the transition is ful economic restructuring that ness to provide a discreet venue Sultan Haitham takes power at flicts and economic challenges.” seen as a sign that Sultan Haitham draws upon its people and avoids for delicate negotiations, goes a time when aggressive foreign has the backing needed to steer too much reliance on any other well beyond Sultan Qaboos. policy, which has seen Saudi Ara- (Agence France-Presse) UN predicts ‘difficult year’ for refugees Protests resume in Baghdad in East Jerusalem after funding shortage amid political impasse

The Arab Weekly staff The Arab Weekly staff forms, new leadership and elections. Since November, protesters have occupied three strategic bridges in London London Baghdad — Sinak, Ahrar and Jum- huriyah — leading to or near the for- he UN agency that aids Pal- rotests turned violent in Bagh- tified Green Zone, the seat of Iraq’s estinian refugees is antici- dad and political factions have government, in a standoff with secu- pating a “difficult year” as it been unable to reach consen- rity forces. T struggles to shore up fund- P sus on a candidate to replace To return focus to the goals of the ing to carry out its mandate. caretaker Iraqi Prime Minister Adel protest movement, demonstrators in The UN Relief and Works Agency Abdul-Mahdi, who resigned under Nasiriya gave the government a week for Palestine Refugees in the Near pressure from protesters. to take serious steps to implement East (UNRWA), tasked to provide Two protesters were killed and changes. critical aid to Palestinian refugees, more than a dozen wounded January The movement has brought about has been struggling since the United 17 in Baghdad in renewed violence key changes but it is unclear whether States withdrew its annual aid of between anti-government demon- protesters can keep up momentum $360 million last year. strators and Iraqi security forces, ac- amid regional tensions and political Organisation officials said they tivists and officials said. infighting. worry funds could further dwindle Casualties occurred after protest- Pressure from the protests triggered as pro-Israel groups lobby foreign ers attempted to breach cement bar- Abdul-Mahdi’s resignation after Iraqi governments to hold back funding, riers placed by security forces. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani with- Interim UNRWA Commissioner- Tough times. Christian Saunders, United Nations Relief and Works The violence ended a period of drew support for his government. General Christian Saunders, told Agency’s (UNRWA) interim commissioner-general, speaks during calm between protesters and security In late December, parliament ap- . an interview in Gaza City, January 16. (Reuters) forces after tensions soared between proved a legislation giving political Both the United States and Israel Tehran and Washington following a independents a better chance of win- have accused UNRWA of misman- Saunders initially said Israel and tal.” Palestinians want East Jerusa- US drone strike in Iraq that killed a ning seats, a key demand of protest- agement and anti-Israeli incitement. the United States were “advocating lem to be the capital of a state they top Iranian general. ers. Once implemented, the meas- Saunders said the UN agency had against funding UNRWA in the Eu- seek to establish in the West Bank Mass protests have engulfed Bagh- ure would change the country’s 18 enough funds to carry out its mis- ropean parliaments and elsewhere” and Gaza. dad and the predominately Shia provinces into several electoral dis- sion at least for the first quarter of but clarified in a statement that he In December, the UN General As- southern provinces since October 1 tricts, with one legislator elected per 2020 and was negotiating with the was referring to pro-Israel groups. sembly renewed UNRWA’s mandate when thousands of Iraqis took to the 100,000 people. United States about its return as a He said UNRWA “had no reason to for three years. The agency aids streets to decry government corrup- Protest organisers have struggled partner. believe that the US was engaged in more than 5 million registered refu- tion, scarcity of jobs and poor basic in recent weeks to entice large crowds “We are engaged with the US. We lobbying to stop funding the agency.” gees in the West Bank, Gaza Strip services. At least 500 people have to Tahrir Square, the epicentre of the will continue to engage with them in Israel considers all of Jerusalem, and East Jerusalem, as well as in Jor- been killed by security forces, who movement, sparking fears it might be the hopes that they will see UNRWA including the eastern part captured dan, Lebanon and Syria. fired live ammunition, tear gas and losing momentum. as a reliable partner and worth sup- along the West Bank in the 1967 Mid- sound bombs. porting,” Saunders said. dle East war, as its “indivisible capi- (With news agencies) Protesters demand sweeping re- (With the Associated Press) January 19, 2020 5 Top news

UK adds entire Hezbollah movement to terror blacklist

Agence France-Presse wing, the jihad council and all units reporting to it, including the external security organisa- London tion.” Britain’s move comes amid ritain’s Finance Ministry heightened tensions in the Mid- added Lebanon’s entire dle East after the United States Hezbollah movement to killed Iranian Major-General B its list of terrorist groups Qassem Soleimani in an air strike subject to asset freezing. January 3. Hezbollah Secretary- The ministry previously only General Hassan Nasrallah threat- targeted the Shia organisation’s ened Iran’s enemies with retalia- military wing but, as of January tion. 17, included the entire group on Britain proscribes 75 interna- its terror list. The designation tional terrorist organisations un- requires any individual or insti- der terrorism legislation passed tution in Britain with accounts in 2000. or financial services connected to Hezbollah to suspend them or Iranian general sanctioned face prosecution. The US State Department said “Hezbollah itself has publicly January 17 that it imposed pen- denied a distinction between its alties on Islamic Revolutionary military and political wings,” the Guard Corps General Hassan Treasury said in a notice posted Shahvarpour for directing a mas- on its website. sacre of nearly 150 demonstra- “The group in its entirety is tors in south-western Iran in No- assessed to be concerned in ter- vember. rorism and was proscribed as a Washington officials said the terrorist organisation in the UK designation was the result of in March 2019,” it added. “This photographic and video tips sub- listing includes the military mitted by Iranians. Deteriorating image. Members of Hezbollah take part in a military parade in the city of Sidon. (AFP) UAE’s first nuclear reactor to Iran banned from hosting start operations ‘within months’ international football

Agence France-Presse reactor for operation. It would be Corporation in a deal worth more after plane shot down the first operational nuclear reac- than $20 billion. When fully op- tor in the . erational, the four reactors should The Associated Press tion, was quoted as saying by the Abu Dhabi Chairman and CEO of Abu Dhabi produce 5,600 megawatts of elec- semi-official Mehr news agency. National Oil Company Sultan al- tricity, around 25% of the United Iran’s federation, which has he ’ Jaber confirmed that the plant is Arab Emirates’ needs, the Energy Geneva four teams in the AFC Champions first nuclear power plant on course to be operational this Ministry said. League, said it would meet with is to begin operations year. “To complement our clean The United Arab Emirates, a ran’s football federation said AFC officials to express its oppo- T within a “few months” energy portfolio, this year in 2020 leading oil producer, said it wants it has been told it will not sition to the decision. after delays to meet safety and we will become the first coun- 50% of its energy to be generated be hosting any international Last season, Iranian teams regulatory conditions, Emirati try in the region to deliver safe, by clean sources by 2050. I matches on Iranian soil. played Saudi teams in the United energy officials said. commercial and peaceful nuclear ENEC said on its website it has The federation said it received Arab Emirates. The Saudi teams The first of the four nuclear re- power,” Jaber said during opening been cooperating with the Inter- a letter from the Asian Football did not travel to Iran because the actors at the Barakah plant had ceremonies of the Abu Dhabi Sus- national Atomic Energy Agency Confederation saying all matches two countries severed diplomatic been due to come online in late tainability Week. (IAEA) and the World Associa- involving Iranian teams would relations in 2016. 2017 but was delayed several In December, UAE newspa- tion of Nuclear Operators (WANO) take place in a third country. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary times. per Al-Ittihad quoted officials at to ensure that the nuclear pro- The Iranians did not say if any Guard Corps shot down a Ukrain- “Operation (of the first reactor) state-owned Emirates Nuclear En- gramme conforms with interna- reason was given or if the deci- ian airliner on January 8 the same is scheduled to start within a few ergy Corporation (ENEC) as saying tional standards. sion was related to the downing day it fired several missiles at US months,” Awaidha al-Marar, chair- the first reactor would become Since 2010, the United Arab of a Ukrainian jetliner, which troops in Iraq. Iranian officials man of Abu Dhabi’s department of operational in the first quarter of Emirates has welcomed more than killed all 176 people on board. initially blamed the crash on a energy, said January 13. 2020. 40 international missions and re- “Iran is fully ready to host technical problem but admitted He said that the first nuclear The nuclear plant west of Abu views from the IAEA and WANO, various teams as it has repeat- responsibility three days later fuel would be loaded within the Dhabi was built by a consortium highlighting its commitment to edly proven during the past sev- after Western leaders said there next few months to prepare the led by the Korea Electric Power transparency, ENEC said. eral years,” Amirmahdi Alavi, a was evidence the plane was hit spokesman for the Iranian federa- with a surface-to-air missile. Decrease of outflow from cuts illegal migration to EU

The Associated Press geri said, explaining that conflict and political instability were driv- ing the influx. Increasingly adverse Brussels conditions for Afghans in Iran and Pakistan were also spurring their he level of arrivals of irregu- movement. lar immigrants to the Euro- Leggeri noted that returns were pean Union has dropped to at a record level, with 15,850 peo- T its lowest level since 2013, ple sent back, many on commercial the bloc’s border security agency flights, which he hailed as “an ex- Frontex said. tremely effective” method. At the same time, the number of Germany, Italy, France and Bel- migrants sent back to their country gium topped the EU countries avail- of origin has risen, Frontex Execu- ing themselves of Frontex’s returns tive Director Fabrice Leggeri said at operations, with the main countries a media conference January 17. taking back their nationals being Al- A breakdown of the figures for bania, and Georgia. 2019 indicated that, while overall Leggeri said Frontex’s mission arrivals at the European Union’s ex- would be significantly beefed up next ternal borders declined 92% from year when the agency’s first full-time the spike recorded in 2015, that was uniformed staff of border and coast because of a big cut in migrants try- guard officers would be deployed. ing to cross the Mediterranean from Leggeri stressed that Frontex North Africa to Italy or Spain. would need sufficient funding from There were sustained numbers of the European Union’s 2021-27 budg- people trying to enter the European et, which is the subject of heated ne- Union through Greece, Bulgaria gotiations between members states. and Cyprus, where border cross- Some EU countries are balking ings were 46% higher than in 2018. at how much they would have to A similar jump was noted for Croatia pay to cover the $93 billion short- and Hungary. fall over the next seven years to be Breakthrough. A 2018 file picture shows the completed construction of the first unit at the Barakah Afghans and Syrians were the big- caused by Britain’s exit from the Nuclear Energy Plant in Al-Dafrah. (AFP) gest groups entering the bloc, Leg- European Union. 6 January 19, 2020 Opinion

Editorial Sahel security of concern to Arab world he summit attended by French President and five West African leaders put the spotlight on the precarious security situation in the Sahara and Sahel region, a region crucial to the peace and stability of the Arab world. T“The priority is Islamic State in the Grand Sahara… It is our priority because it is the most dangerous,” Macron said. The leaders at the summit January 13 empha- sised that the war in Libya “continues to foster instability in the Sahel.” The security threat, however, works both ways as terrorists continue to infiltrate Libya’s porous borders from sub-Saha- ran Africa as well. Many experts expressed doubt on whether the meeting decisively addressed all concerns. France announced the deployment of an additional 220 soldiers on top of the 4,500 French troops already operating in the region. Leaders agreed on a new command structure, © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly called the Coalition for the Sahel, that would enhance the efficiency of the fight against Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Qaeda affiliates. There is the issue of France’s fraying support for its military role in the region. During the summit, Nasrallah’s disconnect cannot Paris received the backing of West African leaders “for the pursuit of France’s military engagement in the Sahel.” Setbacks in the fight against jihadist groups conceal the region’s realities provoked increasing disenchantment with France’s presence in West Africa. Hundreds of demonstrators marched in Bamako, , before Khairallah Khairallah the France-Sahel summit carrying signs reading The Middle East has entered a new stage in which talk “Down with France, Barkhane must leave,” referring to the name of the French military about rejecting and resisting is no longer useful. operation, and “France is a brake on our develop- ment.” f there was one speech that cerned, Nasrallah’s words make Nasrallah was also way off target Macron accused “foreign powers” of sparking had absolutely nothing to sense only to a portion of his sup- regarding Iraq. The main concern protests to undermine French influence. Experts said radical Islamist preachers have fuelled do with reality, it would be porters who have fallen into the of Iraqi officials is not avenging the resentment of the French presence. the latest by Hassan Nasral- trap of blind fanaticism and loyalty killing of Soleimani or Muhandis. “The statements I’ve heard these past weeks are lah, the secretary-general of to velayat-e-faqih. There might be It is how to restore the bridges and shameful… because they serve other interests, Hezbollah in Lebanon. some other believers from the Free open channels with the United either those of terrorist groups… or foreign powers IIn the speech, Nasrallah tried to Patriotic Movement party headed States and the Trump administra- who want to push out Europeans because they persuade the Lebanese, Syrians, by Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of tion. have their own agenda — a mercenary agenda, ” Iraqis and the Iranians themselves Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Iraqi officials discovered, after a said Macron. that the Islamic Republic was a As for the ordinary Lebanese, re- lot of pain, that US sanctions can Many say it is an issue of unconvincing military regional power that can pursue gardless of their sect, community, extend to them, one by one, if they strategy. “Today, more than ever, the fact is that the results, despite the effort, are below the its expansionist project despite region or social classes, Nasrallah consider any pressure to compel expectations of the population,” the assassination of Qassem must seem to be on another plan- the United States to withdraw President Roch Marc Christian Kabore said during Soleimani, commander of al-Quds et. Any Lebanese endowed with a militarily from Iraq. They have a a news conference. Force of the Islamic Revolutionary minimum level of common sense living example of the pain that US UN Envoy for West Africa and the Sahel Guard Corps (IRGC). is preoccupied about the fate of his sanctions can cause: Iran. Mohamed Ibn Chambas warned recently that What Nasrallah failed to under- or her deposits in Lebanese banks. It is natural in a country such as “unprecedented terrorist violence” had shaken stand was that Soleimani’s death Lebanese central bank Governor Iraq, where corruption is rife among the African countries’ confidence in the French- and that of Abu Mahdi al-Muhan- Riad Salame said the country’s the ruling class, that every official is led operation. dis, deputy chief of the Popular banks can return money deposited thinking about saving his own skin, French officials are said to be unhappy about the limited role other European countries are play- Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, in a US in dollars in the 1.5 million ac- rather than avenging Soleimani ing in the anti-terrorism effort. They are also wary drone attack near Baghdad airport, counts but in Lebanese liras. Of and Muhandis. Iraqi Prime Minister of US intentions to draw down their forces in exposed the Iranian regime’s true course, there has been a sharp Abdel Abdul-Mahdi forgot the very Africa. nature. drop in the exchange rate of the important reality that there is a “I hope to convince President Trump that the Is there a more backward Lebanese lira and Salame was not popular revolution in Iraq and he fight against terrorism is playing out in this region regime than the one in which the explicit about how the transac- has been rejected by the Shias be- as well,” said Macron. IRGC mistakes a Ukrainian pas- tions could be made. fore being rejected by the Kurds and Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff US Army senger plane that took off from What we are witnessing is a heist Sunni Arabs. It is not a coincidence General Mark Milley said US military resources Tehran airport for a cruise missile of the savings of the poor, the rich that there were renewed popular “could be reduced and then shifted, either to increase readiness of the force in the continental and shoots it down? Shouldn’t and the in-betweens. This is the protests in Iraq, specifically in Kar- US or shifted” to the Pacific. In recent days, US Nasrallah be presenting his con- question that preoccupies Leba- bala, the same time Soleimani was President Donald Trump has called on NATO to dolences to the victims’ relatives nese citizens, including members being buried in Iran. shift its operations to the Middle East. instead of uttering pure nonsense, of the Shia community, who make Iranians know the Islamic Re- France would like international donors to fulfil knowing that most of the victims up one-third of the depositors. public regime has entered a decline their financial pledges. In 2019, $300 million of were Iranian citizens or of Iranian You can bet those people, phase, especially after they discov- the pledged $400 million came through, the origin? including most Shias, are not con- ered it was unable to respond to French presidency said. Let’s accept, for a moment, that cerned with revenge for Soleimani Soleimani’s assassination and that The United States and many other countries millions of Iranian citizens took to or Muhandis. They do not care it was behind the downing of the have raised questions about the efficiency of the fight compared to the efforts and troops already the streets for Soleimani’s funeral whether Trump is the biggest liar Ukrainian passenger plane. deployed. About 7,000 US special forces carry out and that this “terrified” US Presi- on the planet or not. What good With confrontations between operations in Africa against jihadists, especially in dent Donald Trump. What, then, is all this talk about Trump if the the regime and its people erupt- . An additional 2,000 soldiers train troops about the Iranian students and United States continues with its ing practically daily, the question in 40 African countries and assist France’s citizens who took to the streets sanctions against Iran and conse- of whether Iran has an adequate Operation Barkhane in Mali. The United Nations of Tehran and other cities as they quently against its proxies, such response to the US action is no keeps 13,000 peacekeepers in Mali. burned pictures of Soleimani and as Hezbollah, considering what longer relevant. The Iranian regime Despite these means, jihadist terror is danger- shouted “Death to the dictator,” the sanctions mean in terms of started falling practically the ously spreading in West Africa. meaning Supreme Leader Ali adverse repercussions on Leba- minute Iranians discovered that it Murderous attacks are costing the lives of African and French troops. Since 2016, there has Khamenei? nese banks and the savings of the cannot face US sanctions, even if been a five-fold increase in attacks in Burkina It is certain that something Lebanese people? it possessed all the militias of the Faso, Mali and . The death toll shot up from new is brewing inside Iran where Where does Hezbollah want to world. 770 in 2016 to 4,000 in 2019, noted Ibn Chambas. ordinary citizens are starting to take Lebanon, with all its sects The whole of the Middle East has On January 9, 89 soldiers were killed in Niger. feel that the regime has entered a and ideologies? There is, unfortu- entered a new stage in which the The effect of the military operations on local stage that does not bode well for nately, no answer to that question old talk about “rejecting and resist- populations has been huge with thousands of its future. given Nasrallah’s disconnect from ing” and everything similar is no civilians killed and more than 1 million displaced. The truth is that Nasrallah has reality. longer useful. What works is find- The broader issue is that of inadequate models nothing to offer the Lebanese, This reality says that the Syrians, ing a source of dollars. The problem of development, which encourage marginalisation of youth and radicalisation as well as illegal the Syrians, the Iraqis or the like the Lebanese, are worried is that the United States holds and migrant trafficking from West to North Africa with Yemenis, whom he remembers in about the price of the dollar after controls the dollar. the hope of reaching European shores. his speeches from time to time. its exchange rate exceeded 1,000 Are there people in Lebanon, Another problem is the widespread distrust of His retaliatory threats against the Syrian liras. They also know that Syria and Iraq who realise that sim- African governments by their own populations. United States will remain nothing the Iranian, Hezbollah and other ple reality rather than continuing to International generosity and broader military more than big words because the sectarian militias in Syria were spew the same old resistance dis- presence might not be enough to resolve the Lebanese are preoccupied with sent to the country so Syrian course? That discourse is only good security problem. Lebanon, the Syrians with Syria, President Bashar Assad could stay for the simple-minded because Much rides on the anti-terrorism effort in the the Iraqis with Iraq, the Yemenis in Damascus and so the Russians reality is different. Sahel. Some warn that, if that effort fails, there may be a broad “jihadist arch” stretching from with Yemen and the Iranians with could have the final say in Syria — Africa to the Middle East. Iran. after coordinating with Israel of Khairallah Khairallah As far as the Lebanese are con- course. is a Lebanese writer. January 19, 2020 7 Opinion One more twist in Erdogan’s imperial mindset Published by Al Arab Claude Salhani Publishing House Erdogan should be pickier about the chapters of Publisher Ottoman history he wants to reenact. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD urkish President Re- Erdogan should have avoided ancestors” in Libya is a danger- our brothers in Libya,” Erdogan cep Tayyip Erdogan the trap of seeing his militaristic ous and flammable move remi- said at a Justice and Develop- Editor-in-Chief is trying to rewrite drive being compared to that of niscent of actions by colonial ment Party meeting January 14 history to suit his other unfortunate precedents powers using protections of in Ankara. Oussama Romdhani expansionist visions in history. In 1938, Adolf nationals to invade other coun- Haftar walked out of the Mos-

of reviving the Otto- Hitler’s excuse for invading tries but these are not Turkish cow’s talks January 13, refusing Managing Editor Tman Empire, with — naturally and annexing Czechoslovakia’s nationals and evidence of their to sign a ceasefire accord. — himself as the supreme sultan. Sudetenland was the region’s ancestry is disputed. The “threat of Ottoman colo- Iman Zayat While many may laugh and German majority. The invasion Erdogan’s bellicose rhetoric nisation,” as described by the Deputy Managing Editor shrug off Erdogan’s illusions of and annexation of the Czech after the failure of the Moscow enemies of Turkey in Libya, is grandeur, the Ankara strongman region set the ground for what talks to reach an agreement on further exacerbated by reports and Online Editor is taking his role very seriously. was to come — the invasion and a ceasefire in Libya added to of jihadists and soldiers of Mamoon Alabbasi Erdogan, after intervening occupation of Europe and the the resurgence of tensions and fortune making their way from militarily in Syria, has been horrors that came with it. could ignite the zero-sum con- Syria to the shores of Tripoli. itching to send Turkish troops to Strangely enough, this mind- frontation between the Libyan These mercenaries give Er- Senior Editor Libya for no reason other than set borrows a page, not only National Army, led by Field- dogan room to appease his own John Hendel to fulfil his ideology-driven vi- from Nazi Germany, but the Marshal Khalifa Haftar, and the public opinion, which is reluc- sion of control of the region and complete opposite political spec- internationally recognised GNA. tant to support a far-away war boost his stature at home. trum — Zionist agencies’ claim to “We will not hesitate to threatening the lives of Turkish Chief Copy Editor He is saying he believes there having a mandate to save Jews teach a deserved lesson to the soldiers and bound to make the Richard Pretorius are Libyan-Turks or Libyans of anywhere in the world. putschist Haftar if he continues miserable lives of Libyans even Ottoman descent who deserve Erdogan’s attempt to establish his attacks on the country’s more miserable. Copy Editors to be protected by Ankara. “It a protectorate over “Ottoman legitimate administration and The recourse to mercenaries Stephen Quillen is our duty to protect our kin in is reminiscent of the chapter of Kyle Arensdorf Libya,” Erdogan declared Janu- janissaries in Turkish history. ary 14, adding that Turkey had The Ottomans used slaves and “deep historical and social ties prisoners to unleash a cruel Gulf Section Editor with Libya.” army on the empire’s minorities Mohammed Alkhereiji Such statements claiming a in the 19th century. The janis- mandate to protect Libyans of saries eventually became a Society and Travel Turkish ancestry have fuelled threat to the to the ex- Sections Editor the wariness of Libyans towards tent that Ottoman ruler Sultan Samar Kadi him and Turkey. It also added a Mahmoud II killed 7,000 janis- new dimension to the danger- saries in Istanbul and 120,000 in Senior Correspondents ously growing polarisation in other parts of the empire. the war-torn North African Erdogan should be pickier Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) country with many Libyans about the chapters of Ottoman Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) blaming the Turkey-backed history he wants to reenact. Government of National Accord Less militaristic and bellicose Regular Columnists (GNA) camp for failing to reject episodes could do the region Rashmee Roshan Lall Erdogan’s claims. Erdogan’s more good than those of merce- Claude Salhani claim is likely to inflame Libya naries and Ottoman wars. where the flames of war need no Yavuz Baydar fanning. Claude Salhani is a regular This incredibly arrogant and columnist for The Arab Weekly Correspondents expansionist mindset ignores and a senior fellow at the the sensitivity of Libyans to the Walking past the present. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next to a Institute of World Affairs in Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Ottomans’ abusive rule in Libya. Turkish soldier wearing an Ottoman uniform in Istanbul, last July. (AFP) Washington. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Trump’s threat to ruin Iraq Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi financially has a historical parallel Designers Rashmee Roshan Lall Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali It is outrageous to expect Iraq, which has suffered the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and the destruction of its infrastructure and economy as the result of the 2003 US-led invasion, to pay for its own occupation. Contact editor at: hen US misgovernance, incompetence china at an amazing rate. It ples are worth citing because [email protected] President and the resulting despair. warned Iraqi Prime Minister of their effect on internation- Donald My friend, Robert Maguire, Adel Abdul-Mahdi against act- al relations and the prospects Trump who teaches his signature ing on the Iraqi parliament’s for war or peace. threatened Bottom Up Development and vote to expel 5,300 US troops. Germany, the victor of the to make Iraq Poverty Alleviation course at Should Abdul-Mahdi do so, Franco-Prussian war in 1871, Al Arab Publishing House Wpay for the sprawling US base George Washington, has spent a key Iraqi government ac- exacted reparations from Quadrant Building west of Baghdad if it forced most of his life studying the count at the New York Federal France amounting to approxi- 177-179 Hammersmith Road American troops to leave the Western hemisphere’s poorest Reserve will be blocked, the mately $5 billion at today’s London W6 8BS country, I reached out to an country. If there was anyone United States warned. This prices. France was left bitter. old friend who was a profes- who would see the parallel would potentially wreck Iraq’s After World War I, the sor of international devel- between Trump’s suggestion economy. victorious Allies demanded opment studies at George for Iraq and France’s compul- The Wall Street Journal $30 billion in reparations Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Washington University. sion for Haiti, it was Maguire. reported that the Central Bank from Germany, which was Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Did he see any parallels, His answer to my question of Iraq’s most recent financial about three times more than I asked, between Trump’s was both surprising and dis- statement, at the end of 2018, the German economy was demand for billions of dol- piriting. said the New York Fed “held thought capable of producing. lars from Iraq and a despic- If Iraq were forced by nearly $3 billion in overnight In contrast, after World War US Publisher: able, long-ago international Trump to pay for Al Asad deposits.” Restricting Iraqi II, the United States’ Marshall episode between France and Airbase, it wouldn’t be like access to dollars could cause Plan financed more than $13 The Arab Weekly USA LLC. Haiti? France’s outrageous demand the Iraqi dinar’s value to fall billion worth of goods to [email protected] for compensation from Haiti, precipitously. That would After Haiti, the richest slave Western countries that had [email protected] colony in the Americas, won Maguire suggested. It would leave its financial system with been devastated. Though independence in 1804, France be worse. no way to recharge. West Germany paid some Tel: 248-679-6624 demanded compensation. “I suppose,” he added, The twisted political reparations during the post- The former colony had to pay “one could say that at least economy of reparations and war transition period, it even- the modern equivalent of $21 the Haitians — in exchange financial penalties after war tually received something billion, which France judged for the ransom imposed by is usually revengeful and not like $5 billion worth of goods to be the monetary value of France — got their freedom conducive to peace. Trump’s under the Marshall Plan. “lost” Haitian slaves as well and independence. In the threat to destroy Iraq, a sup- After WWII, the United as Haiti’s profitable sugar and Iraq case, the payback will posed US ally, financially States took the high road and, Subscription & Advertising: coffee-producing plantations. have brought them nothing… is tragic and immoral. It is it’s fair to say, that magna- [email protected] In exchange, France would except violence begetting vio- outrageous to expect Iraq, nimity created the conditions Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 recognise Haiti’s independ- lence and US actions that, in which has suffered the loss for 75 years of relative peace ence. essence, delivered Iraq to its of hundreds of thousands of in Europe. Haiti’s gargantuan debt mortal enemy — Iran — which lives and the destruction of its That was a different Mohamed Al Mufti to France was only paid off now seems to have made Iraq infrastructure and economy America. Marketing & Advertising its virtual political colony about 70 years ago. The eco- as the result of the 2003 US- Manager nomic burden was considered or, as Colin Powell famously led invasion, to pay for its Rashmee Roshan Lall is a to have severely depleted the metaphored, lots of broken own occupation. The nearest columnist for The Arab Week- Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 former “pearl of the Antilles,” pottery that they will own.” equivalent is France’s treat- ly. Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk leaving it destitute and sub- Indeed, the Trump admin- ment of Haiti. www.rashmee.com and she is ject to a never-ending cycle of istration continues to smash However, three other exam- on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 January 19, 2020 News & Analysis Gulf Iran’s point man in Yemen reported still at large after failed US attempt to kill him

The Arab Weekly staff handled $5 million in directing the plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington in London 2011. He also reportedly planned other attacks in the United States ith the revelation and elsewhere. that the US military Gulf Cooperation Council had intended to at- members have long complained W tack the Islamic Rev- about Iranian interference in olutionary Guard Corps’ point their sovereign affairs, with Yem- man in Yemen the same day it en becoming another front for carried out an operation that Tehran’s interference with the killed the head of al-Quds Force start of the war there in 2014. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq, Iran’s A Saudi-led coalition has been involvement in the war in Yemen fighting in support of the inter- became more evident. nationally recognised govern- The Washington Post said the ment of Yemen against Iran-al- US military tried to kill Abdul lied Houthi rebels. Since the start Reza Shahlai, described as “a of the war, the Houthi militia has financier and key commander shown increasingly enhanced in Iran’s al-Quds Force who has military capabilities, despite a been active in Yemen.” The op- UN arms embargo. eration failed. In late 2017, Saudi Arabia de- Although not as well-known as manded the international com- Soleimani, Shahlai has an exten- munity take immediate measures sive record in terrorism. to hold Iran accountable for its “If we had killed him, we’d hostile actions regarding Yemen be bragging about it that same after the United States present- night,” a senior US official told ed evidence to the UN Security the Post, an indicator that Shahl- Council. ai, like Soleimani, was a high-val- ue target. “Clearly, the intent here was The US military is said to to target some of al-Quds Force’s have tried and failed to kill most important and capable Abdul Reza Shahlai, proxy handlers,” Matthew Lev- described as “a financier Last farewell. A 2013 file picture shows Oman’s Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said saluting during the itt, of the Washington Institute military parade in the capital . (AFP) for Near East Policy, told the Wall and key commander in Street Journal. Iran’s al-Quds Force in The US State Department de- Yemen.” scribed Shahlai as a 63-year-old, Yemen-based, high-ranking com- On January 3 the United States Regional and world leaders mander of al-Quds Force with a conducted a drone operation that history of targeting Americans killed Soleimani, the architect and US allies. of Iran’s regional proxy groups Shahlai, who has a $15 million such as Hezbollah in Lebanon honour Sultan Qaboos and bounty on his head, was classi- and Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation fied as a Specially Designated Forces. Global Terrorist by the US Depart- Experts said the likelihood of ment of the Treasury in 2008 and Iran continuing to arm the Hou- his diplomatic legacy 2011. He was designated a terror- this is almost a certainty. ist by Saudi Arabia, the European “The support for Houthis will Union, the and not be decreased significantly, Mohammed Alkhereiji statement. He ordered three days They said the council invited in 2018. even though Soleimani had his of mourning across the United the Royal Family Council to meet The State Department said: touch on each specific proxy Arab Emirates. and select the sultan’s successor “Shahlai planned multiple assas- group,” Levitt told Voice of London Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah because he did not have children sinations of coalition forces in America. al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah ex- and had not publicly named a suc- Iraq, provided weapons and ex- “The network is in place and oyalty, heads of states pressed “great grief over the death cessor. plosives to Shia extremist groups certain people are in charge. and high-ranking govern- of Sultan Qaboos, sharing his deep Omani media reports said the and planned the January 20, The point person who provides ment officials flocked to condolences with the Omani lead- royal family members were meant 2007, attack in Karbala, Iraq, that financial and military (aid) for R Muscat to pay respects to ership and people.” Bahraini King to decide who the next sultan killed five American soldiers and Houthis is the senior IRGC com- Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said and Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa would be, taking into considera- wounded three others.” mander, Reza Shahlai, who (has show support for Sultan Haitham also announced a 3-day mourning tion, in case of a deadlock, wishes Shahlai, in his role as a finan- been) listed recently in Rewards bin Tariq Al Said, Oman’s first new period, with the Bahraini flag low- expressed by Sultan Qaboos in a cier for the Islamic Revolution- for Justice by the United States leader in almost 50 years. ered to half-staff. letter he wrote before his death. ary Guard Corps (IRGC), allegedly government.” The death of Sultan Qaboos on Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin The Royal Family Council de- January 10 at the age of 79 was Hamad al-Thani issued a state- cided, however, to resort to the considered a regional watershed. ment in which he “mourned with letter and concur with his choice Besides his distinction of being full sadness and sorrow” the late of successor in “recognition and the longest-serving Arab leader, sultan and leaders from both sides gratitude” for the late sultan. the late sultan’s policies of diplo- of the Yemen conflict offered their macy first and neutrality in con- condolences, highlighting Oman’s flicts gave Oman a prime role in neutrality. Sultan Qaboos’s policies mediations. Events in Oman dominated re- of diplomacy-first and Shortly after the Omani Royal porting of the region’s main news neutrality in conflicts Court’s announcement of Sultan channels which, despite their dif- gave Oman a prime role Qaboos’s death, Saudi King Sal- fering editorial policies, were uni- in mediations. man bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and fied in tributes to Sultan Qaboos. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sal- In Dubai, Saudi-owned Al Ara- The list of officials and govern- man bin Abdulaziz expressed “sin- biya broadcast reports on Sultan ment delegations that visited cere condolences and sympathy to Qaboos’s achievements, with an Muscat to pay their condolences the royal family and people of the emphasis on his efforts to em- and pay respects to the new sul- Sultanate of Oman as well as to the power women and on how the tan included Palestinian Authority Arab and Islamic nations over the sultanate’s economy experienced President , Brit- death of Sultan Qaboos.” “a quantum leap under Qaboos, as ish Prime Minister Boris Johnson, President of the United Arab he increased and developed the oil British Prince Charles, Abu Dhabi Emirates Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed production.” Crown Prince Mohammad bin al-Nahyan “commended the late Qatari-owned Al Jazeera showed Zayed al-Nahyan, Tunisian Presi- sultan for being dedicated to the a video report that said: “Oman dent and Iranian For- service of his people and nation under the rule of [Sultan] Qaboos eign Minister Mohammad Javad and his work on bolstering cohe- had been a destination for me- Zarif. sion of the Arab nation, ” a state- diation to resolve crises in the re- US President Donald Trump sent ment from WAM, the UAE state gion… as evidenced by its media- a delegation to Muscat headed news agency, said. tion between Iran and the United by US Secretary of Energy Dan “We express our full confidence States that resulted in the signing Brouillette to deliver a handwrit- that the people of Oman and their of the nuclear deal in 2015.” ten message from Trump to Sultan leadership will continue his bless- Details of what it called a Haitham. Bullets in common. A supporter of the Houthis carries a poster ed march serving the causes of the “smooth transition” after Sultan attached to his waist of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani. nation and develop the Arab joint Qaboos’s death were disclosed by Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf (Reuters) action,” Sheikh Khalifa said in the Oman’s Supreme Defence Council. section editor of The Arab Weekly. January 19, 2020 9 News & Analysis Maghreb Tunisia’s president takes centre stage as the search for new PM goes on

Lamine Ghanmi writing by political parties. The President may, however, pick a figure from outside the proposed Tunis list to form the government. Tunisia previously relied on po- unisian President Kais litical links between the president Saied will select a prime and Ennahda President Rached minister after bickering Ghannouchi who is also speaker T political factions in par- of parliament, to put together a liament derailed the Islamist En- government but Ennahda’s defeat nahda Movement’s drive to win a in parliament weakened Ghan- confidence vote for its designated nouchi’s clout. head of government. Ghannouchi has been dogged It is the first time parliament by opposition accusations of delivered a vote of no-confidence nepotism after he named allies to Calling the shots. Tunisian President Kais Saied (R) meets with Rached Ghannouchi, head of the for a government since Tunisia’s key positions in parliament. He Ennahda Movement at the Carthage Palace, last October. (DPA) democratic transition began in also faced criticism from inside 2011. and outside the party for a “sus- The rejection of Ennahda’s pro- picious” meeting with Turkish bring in investment from Turkey. Ghannouchi’s planned power money laundering on years-old posal to have former junior agri- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Moussi’s bid to remove Ghan- build-up was aimed at Saied, who charges. culture minister Habib Jemli lead one day after the no-confidence nouchi was backed by her most advocates a system of direct de- Tunisia’s political landscape re- the government dealt a blow to vote in parliament and amid a fierce rival in parliament, Samia mocracy and revamped presiden- mains fractured, with more than the Islamist party and highlighted heated debate about Turkey’s role Abbou of the centre-left Attayyar tial powers that could challenge 120 parties driven largely by per- its growing isolation in Tunisian in Libya. ad-dimokrati party. “Removing the constitutionally sanctioned sonalities rather than platforms, politics. Abir Moussi, president of the Ghannouchi from his position as system of government and En- as the public grows increasingly anti-Islamist Free Destourian Par- a speaker is a national necessity,” nahda’s hold on power. disillusioned with a struggling ty, said Ghannouchi represented a Moussi said. Tunisian law stipulates that economy. Ghannouchi finds himself “threat to Tunisia’s national secu- Analysts said it was unlikely Saied has until January 21 to select With Ghannouchi set back by under fire after a rity and interests” after his meet- that the divided opposition would a replacement for Jemli to build a his troubles in parliament and controversial visit to Turkey ing with Erdogan and called for unseat Ghannouchi as a speaker coalition able to win a majority in within his party, there appears to removing him as speaker. but added that growing criticism parliament. If the impasse drags be an opportunity for Saied to as- The 217-seat parliament turned Majdi Boudhina, another parlia- directed at him and the Ennahda on, snap parliamentary elections sert his leadership. down the proposed government ment member of the Free Destou- defeat in the confidence vote could be called by the end of Feb- Saied, who is the country’s first on a 134-72 vote. Even some MPs rian Party, accused Ghannouchi showed that Ghannouchi’s strat- ruary. democratically elected president from Ennahda and its ally, the of “plotting against Libya” in egy to shore up his power in the Ennahda resisted proposals by to have gained more than 70% of more radical Islamist Karama his meeting with Erdogan. “The legislative branch had hit obsta- other groups to form a “govern- the vote, will face no significant Coalition, were among those who meeting was a stab in the back of cles. ment of the president” but its de- opposition from most political voted against the Jemli cabinet. brotherly Libya,” Boudhina said. Some Ennahda officials are feat ushered in a political realign- parties, whose leaders and MPs The vote left Tunisia in a politi- Erdogan has sought to provide pushing to restructure the party ment, including rapprochement do not want to wager their current cal impasse, giving Saied, who ran military support to the Tripoli- leadership so Ghannouchi plays between former rivals, caretaker gains in snap elections. for office as an independent, the based Government of National less of a prominent role ahead of a Prime Minister , “The political parties that de- role of a political broker. Accord, which is allied with Is- leadership congress in May. who leads the Tahya Tounes par- feated Ennahda and foiled its bid Saied told political groups to lamist militias, in its fight against Following Ennahda’s defeat in ty, and media tycoon Nabil Ka- to form a government will walk on “submit their written proposals” the eastern-based Libyan National parliament, three officials, includ- roui, who heads the Qalb Tounes eggshells concerning the choice of of candidates to form the next Army. ing Hichem Laarayedh , a member party. This prompted speculation the next prime minister by Presi- government. He was to select “the Ghannouchi defended his trips of the party’s policymaking Shura that the move could bring forward dent Saied,” said political writer most able personality” from the to Turkey by saying he met with Council and son of former Prime a broad coalition of parties to iso- Marouen Achouri. “The interests lists or make his own selection. Erdogan as leader of Ennahda. Minister Ali Laarayedh, who is a late Ennahda. of the parties dictate to their lead- About 40 names, including His deputies said the meeting was candidate to replace Ghannouchi, Karoui was detained for 48 days ers to be accommodating of the three women, were submitted in a “popular diplomacy” drive to resigned from the party. on accusations of tax evasion and president.” Protests go on in even as president pledges reform

The Arab Weekly staff loud Hamrouche, staunch support- “The proposed deep reforms of our protests, our peaceful revolu- to forge a consensus about free ers of the protests. Tebboune also the constitution will help the com- tion with patience and persever- elections in December to put the visited ailing former Foreign Min- ing into existence of new modes ance because we believe nothing country onto path of a democratic Tunis ister Ahmed Taleb Ibrahimi to brief of governance and lay the founda- has changed. We have the same re- transition and we face the risks him on reform ideas. tions of new Algeria.” gime which recycled itself with the of missing another opportunity eople took to the streets He talked with Islamic scholars The proposed changes, which election of a new president.” to have a genuine dialogue about across Algeria January 17, and former independence war fig- would include limiting a president “There are no signals or meas- change,” said Bouchachi. continuing mass protests ures, including Youcef al Khatib, to two terms in office, are to be ures to display a true intent that “That confirms the belief of P that have taken place for 48 as well opposition leader Soufiane submitted to a referendum before the demands of the people will be many Algerians that there is no consecutive Fridays. Djilali, leader of Jil Jadid party. April with parliamentary elections satisfied. The authorities can take change and the regime rejects the The demonstrators, seeking Djilali is among those who ad- before the end of the year. action to prove the good intent of core issue that the source of power sweeping changes in the Algerian vocated evolution, rather than appeasement without the need of will be the free will of the Algerian government, remained high-spir- revolution, to push for reforms and dialogue. The authorities do not people.” ited more than a month after the avoid violence and strife. “Istiqlal, Istiqlal” authorise the opposition or the More than ten protesters were election of Other opponents refuse dialogue (“Independence, protesters to take measures as ges- detained by police in Algiers for as president to replace Abdelaziz with Tebboune and seek to ener- Independence”) chanted tures of good faith,” he added. taking part in the demonstrations, Bouteflika, who was ousted by the gise the protests despite apparent protesters voicing widely Bouchachi cited freeing detain- said the National Committee for pro-democracy movement after 20 fatigue in the movement as Alge- shared grievances among ees, including protest figures Ka- the Liberation of Detainees. Police years in power. rians seem increasingly tired of Algerians that the country’s rim Tabbou, Fodil Boumala and deployed enough force in the west- “Istiqlal, Istiqlal” (“Independ- taking part in marches each week independence from France Samir Belarbi, ending restrictions ern towns of Tiaret, Saida and Sidi ence, Independence”) chanted without seeing tangible results. such as police roadblocks so people Bel Abbes to stop Algerians from protesters voicing widely shared Critics of engagement with au- was “seized” by the military could travel to join protests in Al- taking to the streets. grievances among Algerians that thorities claim Tebboune’s elec- and business elites to giers, opening state-owned media Activists said such incidents cast the country’s independence from tion and his reforms would not monopolise power outlets to the opposition, tolerance doubt on Tebboune’s pledges of “a France was “seized” by the military change the Algerian government. and wealth. of opposition and dissenting views new Algeria.” and business elites to monopolise They seek a peaceful revolution to in public spaces and ending legal “An explanation is that the fac- power and wealth. achieve political gains. However, experiences of consti- restrictions of free and independ- tions of the regime are divided Protesters said revising the con- “The meeting with the president tutional change left many scepti- ent political activities. about the future shape of the re- stitution was a charade in response January 15 aimed at submitting to cal. Tebboune has freed more than gime after the elections and the to reforms proposed by Tebboune, the president the conditions of Jil “Now we have to make one of 70 detainees since his election and death of (General) Ahmed Gaid a former prime minister elected Jadid for the dialogue with the re- the two choices: setting the condi- promised to address all other de- Salah December 23,” said Nasser president December 12 with a low- gime and it was not a dialogue,” tions for a dialogue or refusing the mands to “win the confidence of Djebbar, a university teacher and turnout vote. Djilali said in a statement. “The dialogue and continue with the the Hirak (pro-democracy move- leading figure in the protests. Tebboune’s of direct talks goal of the dialogue is to establish a protests in the streets each week to ment).” “The new situation put some fac- with personalities and opposition genuine democracy in Algeria.” keep up with the unchanged radi- Analysts said Tebboune ap- tions on the losing side while oth- leaders supportive of the pro-de- Tebboune said: “The revision of cal stands without results,” said peared “hesitant” in his moves, ers won prompting the losers to mocracy movement to win support the constitution is the cornerstone Djilali. which must come swiftly to build undermine the gainers. The second for his reforms and ease the pro- for rebuilding Algeria into a new re- During demonstrations January confidence. Some said the presi- interpretation is that the regime is tests left protest figures divided. public to achieve the claims of our 17 in Algiers, rights lawyer Musta- dent’s actions were limited by divided about whom to deal with He met with former Prime Min- people expressed by the popular pha Bouchachi, a leading figure in “many red lines from the military.” the Hirak: ignore it like Gaid Salah isters and Mou- pro-democracy movement. the protests, said: “We continue “We missed the opportunity did or listen to it.” 10 January 19, 2020 News & Analysis Egypt New naval base boosts Egypt’s presence in the Red Sea

Hassan Abdel Zaher the southern entrance of the Red Sea, they added. The potential opening of the Cairo new base comes as the region brac- es after recent developments. The gypt inaugurated a naval January 3 killing of Iranian al-Quds base on its south-eastern Force commander Qassem Soleim- Red Sea coast. Near the ani in a US drone attack may result E border with Sudan, the in threats to international shipping new Barnice Base places the Egyp- in the Red Sea and the Bab el Man- tian Navy close to the southern deb Strait. entrance of the Red Sea, the Bab el Iran threatened to avenge Mandeb Strait and Yemen. Soleimani’s death and could use It also puts the navy close to the regional proxies, including the Horn of Africa, an important spot Houthis, who have attacked ves- Heightened tension. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) attends a presentation of combat for Egypt’s national and Suez Ca- sels, including Saudi oil tankers, in efficiency of the armed forces in Suez, Egypt. (Reuters) nal security. the Red Sea previously. “This is a time of high tension In April 2015, Egyptian President in the region and the presence of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi described the deployment of important naval in Libya and the Horn of Africa. rity and sabotage this plan.” a base there is a matter of extreme Red Sea and the Bab el Mandeb and military equipment to the area Its control of the Sudanese island Egypt’s intensified naval pres- importance,” said Tamer al-Shaha- Strait as “national security” issues. as part of the southern fleet. Arma- would have it near the Egyptian ence would be instrumental for wi, a member of the Committee on “Protecting the maritime move- ment includes the Mistral-class border, analysts said. the success of a Red Sea coalition Defence and National Security in ment in the Red Sea and the strait helicopter carrier Gamal Abdel- formed January 6 in Riyadh, ana- the Egyptian parliament. is a national security priority for Nasser, one of two acquired by lysts said. The base, which will include a Egypt,” Sisi said. Egypt from France in 2015. The base, which will The eight-country coalition military-civilian airport, will func- The security of the Red Sea and The Egyptian military and na- include a military- would be directed to act against pi- tion as a supply centre for Egypt’s the Bab el Mandeb Strait directly val presence in the area will shield civilian airport, will racy, smuggling and other threats southern fleet, the country’s naval affects the Suez Canal, a passage- against Turkish ambitions in the function as a supply with a view towards protecting the force near the southern entrance way of utmost importance for the Red Sea, analysts said. centre for Egypt’s international maritime movement of the Red Sea. Egyptian President Egyptian economy and interna- Turkey was hoping to gain a in the area. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who inau- tional trade. presence in the Red Sea by signing southern fleet, the “The new coalition will help its gurated the new base January 15, Egypt has grand economic plans an agreement in December 2017 country’s naval force member states tighten control on opened the headquarters of the for the Suez Canal region, which with former Sudanese President near the southern the southern entrance of the Red fleet in January 2017, apparently to include turning it into an interna- Omar al-Bashir for administrative entrance of the Red Sea. Sea,” said political analyst Abdel protect Egypt’s interests in the Red tional logistical, service and indus- control of the Sudanese Red Sea Monem Halawa. “With a new base Sea and support the Saudi-led coa- trial centre. island of Suakin. “Turkey has been trying to sur- in the area, the Egyptian Navy will lition fighting Iran-backed Houthi Egypt has granted concessions The island is a few kilometres round our country by all means, be more capable of supporting the rebels in Yemen. for three international coalitions away from Egypt’s Red Sea coast. including by gaining presence near operations of the member states of Barnice Base strengthens Egypt’s to explore for oil and gas off its The Turkish presence on the island Egypt’s Red Sea coast,” said Saad the coalition.” naval presence in the Red Sea, ana- Red Sea coast with expectations of was feared to be part of a plan to al-Zunt, the head of the Strategic lysts said. It also gives Egypt capa- huge hydrocarbon reserves in the besiege Egypt for ideological, eco- Studies Centre think-tank. “The Hassan Abdel Zaher is a bilities to quickly counter threats area. nomic and strategic reasons. construction of a naval base in this Cairo-based contributor to in the Bab el Mandeb Strait and in This may explain Egypt’s large Turkey has military presences area will protect our national secu- The Arab Weekly. Nile dam talks bear fruit in Washington but deal yet to be clinched

Amr Emam deal the following day. They ended of being reluctant to sign a binding up extending talks through a third agreement giving Cairo assurances day. that the dam filling and operation Cairo The framework agreed to by the would not deprive it of a sizeable three countries met key Egyptian amount of the water it gets from the gypt, Ethiopia and Sudan demands, Egyptian analysts said. Nile. reached an agreement on “This is a major step on the road Egypt, badly in need of water, filling and operating the to reaching an agreement that is gets 55.5 billion cubic metres of wa- E Grand Ethiopian Renais- binding to all parties,” said Ayman ter from the Nile each year. Howev- sance Dam, a project that has Salama, an international law profes- er, that is more than 25 billion cubic caused increased tensions among sor at Ain Shams University. metres of water less than annual na- the three countries since the project Following the meetings in Wash- tional needs. started in 2011. ington, Egyptian Foreign Minister Cairo wanted Ethiopia to release The foreign and water ministers of Sameh Shoukry said Egypt was 40 billion cubic metres of water the three countries agreed the reser- optimistic that US and World Bank from the dam every year during its voir of the Grand Ethiopian Renais- mediation would help the countries reservoir filling but Ethiopia ob- sance Dam (GERD) would be filled reach a final deal but cautioned they jected. However, Egypt can fulfil its in stages that consider hydrological are not there yet. objectives if Ethiopia approves de- conditions of the Blue Nile and ef- “They are an attempt to discuss tails of the framework agreed to in fects on downstream reservoirs. all important issues and relevant Washington. The ministers, meeting in Wash- points,” Shoukry said. Some Egyptian analysts said they ington under mediation by the Unit- Apart from filling the reservoir in were sceptical a final deal was in ed States and the World Bank, said stages and during the wet season, sight. in a statement that they agreed the the ministers agreed to make the in- “I have fears that Ethiopia will not dam would be filled during the July- itial filling stage of the dam quickly sign a final agreement by the end of August wet season. reach 595 metres to permit genera- the month,” said water expert Diaa The project has been contentious tion of electricity. al-Qousi. “It has been trying to because it is important for Ethio- During this stage, Ethiopia is to waste time since the beginning of pia’s development but challenges provide mitigation measures for the negotiations.” Egypt’s water supply from the Nile. Egypt and Sudan, especially in case It is not clear how the United After years of failed negotiations, of severe droughts. States and the World Bank would Cairo sought international media- Subsequent stages of dam filling respond if any of the three countries tion through a 2015 Declaration of would be done through a mecha- refused to follow through with the Principles. US officials and the nism determining the amount of final agreement. World Bank agreed to mediate. water released from the dam, the If talks collapse, Shoukry said the Last November, the US Treasury ministers said in a statement. three countries would resort to ar- Department and the World Bank Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are ex- ticles on conflict resolution in the asked the three countries to agree pected to agree on an effective coor- 2015 Declaration of Principles. on technical and hydrological is- dination mechanism and establish “The Declaration of Principles de- sues and return to Washington to provisions to settle disputes before termines the commitments of each sign a deal by January 15. the ministers return to Washington country on the road to reaching a No deals were reached, however, January 28-29 to sign a final agree- deal,” Shoukry said. “I hope we do even after four rounds of talks. The ment on the dam. not reach this point.” countries’ water and foreign minis- Egypt and Ethiopia had accused ters started meetings in Washington each other of causing the talks to Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly January 13 and were to finalise the collapse. Cairo accused Addis Ababa contributor in Cairo. January 19, 2020 11 Spotlight Religious Tolerance Egypt’s synagogue restoration part of newfound interest in Jewish heritage

Hassan Abdel Zaher agogues and cemeteries, have been restored in an ambitious national plan for the renovation of historical Cairo houses of worship. “The plan gives a good impres- he centuries-old Eliyahu sion about the current administra- Hanavi Synagogue in Alex- tion in Egypt,” said Ahmed al-Gho- andria has been restored to bashi, a professor of history at Cairo T its former glory in a move University. that highlights Jewish heritage in Egyptian President Abdel Fattah predominantly Muslim Arab Egypt. al-Sisi has demonstrated a unique Egyptian authorities invested model of religious tolerance, hav- $6.2 million in the restoration pro- ing called for reforming Islamic re- ject after a committee at the Min- ligious discourse and constructing istry of Antiquities recommended churches alongside mosques. Sisi preservation of the synagogue, also signalled a readiness to con- which was built in 1354. struct synagogues. “This is a very important site be- Egypt’s once-thriving Jewish cause it is an essential part of Egyp- community dwindled to 18 mem- tian history,” said Wa’d Allah Abul bers — 12 in Alexandria and six in Ela, a senior Antiquities Ministry of- Cairo. Several decades ago, Alexan- ficial. “Jews lived in Egypt for cen- dria was home to more than 50,000 turies in the past.” Egyptian Jews. Jews left Egypt by the thousands after Israel was es- tablished in 1948 and the emer- In addition to preserving gence of Egypt’s Arab nationalism Jewish heritage, Egypt in the 1960s. hopes to turn Jewish sites The last time Jews prayed at the into tourist magnets to help Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue was in revive its tourism sector 2012 before part of the ceiling of after years of recession. the second floor of the synagogue collapsed, prompting authorities to Two of Egypt’s largest contract- shutter the building. Jews were said ing companies carried out the res- to be sceptical about official reasons toration over three years. They re- for closing the synagogue, given by Egyptian legacy. A section of the Eliyahu Hanavi Synagogue. (Egyptian Ministry of Antiquities) placed decaying tiles with others the Muslim Brotherhood govern- resembling the original ones. They ment that then ruled Egypt. repainted the walls and renewed Eliyahu Hanavi was the only Jewish births and marriages in Al- said Hanan Kamel Mitwali, a pro- gogues threatened with collapse. the synagogue’s wooden windows. functional synagogue in Egypt at exandria. fessor of Hebrew at Ain Shams Uni- The Ministry of Antiquities plans to The restoration of Eliyahu Hanavi the time. Egypt was not able to restore Jew- versity. “It also proves the determi- restore four other synagogues in the Synagogue is more about Egypt’s The synagogue is a piece of art. It ish sites for a long time for financial nation of the authorities to protect coming few years. newfound interest in its Jewish was greatly damaged in 1798 dur- as well as political reasons. Some Egypt’s cultural and religious diver- This plan, observers said, would heritage. It is one of several Jew- ing the French invasion of Egypt. In synagogues had been attacked in sity.” do a lot to show Egypt’s religious ish sites restored in recent years as 1850, Egypt’s ruler, Muhammad Ali retaliation to Israeli aggression In addition to preserving Jewish tolerance. Cairo opens to the heritage of a his- Pasha, reconstructed it. against Palestinians. heritage, Egypt hopes to turn Jew- “It will also be very useful to the torically important segment of the It contains 50 of the oldest copies “The ongoing restoration of the ish sites into tourist magnets to help tourism sector,” Ghobashi said. Egyptian society. of the Torah as well as books and synagogues gives a message to eve- revive its tourism sector after years “The synagogues are architectural Some of the country’s most im- manuscripts that date to the 15th rybody that the authorities are keen of recession. wonders and can attract a large portant Jewish sites, including syn- century. It also retains records of on the protection of these sites,” Egypt has many neglected syna- number of foreign tourists.” Catholic centre in Cairo promoting tolerance through art

May Haggi them during illness and lifting He said he wanted to study sci- promote human awareness and as participates in weddings and fu- them out of isolation through a entific subjects but church rules science. nerals. Day of Giving. When the Actors’ restricted monks to literary sub- Daniel proposed to emulate the He recently organised a recital Cairo Guild announces one of its mem- jects so Daniel switched to jour- Emirati experience of creating a at the Institute of Oncology with bers is unwell, a delegation from nalism and completed a master’s Ministry of Tolerance in Egypt. many artists after this institute ather Boutros Daniel, di- the centre is sent to the actor’s degree in Italy. During his doctoral The United Arab Emirates has was the target of a terrorist attack rector of the Catholic Cen- bedside as a gesture of gratitude studies, he was summoned to taken important steps in spread- and he is a constant contributor to tre for Cinema in Egypt, for the person’s work and for pro- Egypt to head the Catholic Centre ing the values of coexistence and campaigns aimed at changing neg- F said art is the ideal tool to moting humanistic ideals and val- for Cinema. tolerance. Items that may incite ative societal behaviour. spread the values of​​ religious toler- ues through art and humour. Daniel said countering terror- racism and intolerance have been Following the uprising of June 30, ance and counter-extremism. Daniel pointed out that, by be- ism and extremism cannot be dropped from Emirati curricula 2013, nearly 60 churches and Chris- Daniel is using the Catholic Cen- longing to a specific religious sect, done through security measures and subjects promoting the posi- tian service buildings in Egypt were tre for Cinema to confront oppo- the centre had to set criteria for alone. The roots of the problem tive virtues and values ​​of all reli- burned and vandalised but Daniel nents of the arts and preserve a the type of cinema and art it pro- reside in the false ideas planted in gions have been added, encour- insisted that “relations between film archive thought to be the old- motes. The concerned works must young people. This requires a clear aging students from all faiths to Muslims and Christians in Egypt est in the Middle East. The archive promote noble social values and strategy and a programme to raise communicate and understand are excellent despite some attempts includes rare films such as “In the keep away from religion, politics awareness through tools that have each other. to disturb them and give the inter- Land of Tutankhamun,” produced and sex. The films must promote been used to indoctrinate new gen- During Ramadan, Daniel is keen national community an unrealistic about 100 years ago. The centre moral and humanistic values with- erations and ignite sectarian strife. to keep his tradition of having an image of these relations.” has widened its role by focusing on out turning to vulgarity and undue He pointed out that the Eastern iftar every year that Daniel defended openness as a honouring film creators during an excitement. mindset has a strong religious bent brings together about religious message and presented annual film festival that has been Besides being fluent in , but is often driven by rumours. 200 people from a vision for a solution to the social in place for half a century. Daniel speaks English, French, This requires instilling values ​​of all sections of the disintegration that has accelerated Italian, Spanish and German. He love and tolerance at an early age, society. He distrib- since the introduction of modern explained his intellectual open- starting with the family circle utes lanterns to communication technology. He Father Boutros Daniel, ness by his love for the humanities. and schools. Clerics from all de- patients and visi- advocates, for example, remov- director of the Catholic He said all Catholic monks study nominations must temper their tors at children’s ing mobile phones for an hour Centre for Cinema in Egypt, literary subjects. The literature discourse and counter attempts to hospitals and each day during which the fam- proposes to emulate the curricula at the Colleges of Arts at create sectarian strife, Daniel says. homes for ily sits together to discuss and talk Emirati experience of Cairo and Ain Shams universities He said Egyptian society is mod- the elderly, and thus recapture the feelings of creating a Ministry of are their favourites. erate by nature but still needs to as well closeness and love between fam- Tolerance in Egypt. Daniel, however, did not stop at hear the discourse in mosques, ily members and relatives because one major in literature and studied churches and closed circles the family unit is the first bulwark Daniel said music “was a refined journalism, philosophy and music. whose first goal is to against most risks involved in irre- art that speaks to the soul and is He completed a master’s degree sponsible use of social networking the only language that the whole in journalism and a doctorate in to provoke religious and sectarian world understands. Politics and music and worked as an econom- feuds. interests can divide people but ics writer at the government’s Al- Daniel said that becoming a role rhythms can bring them together.” Ahram newspaper. model starts at home. Children Objectives of the Catholic Centre Daniel attributed his multiple tend to close their ears to advice for Cinema include reviving films interests to coincidence. His entry from adults but open their eyes to and series that spread centrist into the world of music, for exam- the example of a cleric or a sheikh. ideas and “supporting artists who ple, came when a music teacher The former must match their deeds do not seek financial gains through pushed him to fill in one morning to their words so young people do their works but pursue the mes- at mass for an absent comrade. not lose faith in models to emulate sage and objectives of art.” After that, he studied piano and A humanistic message. Director of the Catholic Centre for Cinema Father and respect. Centre staff members are keen earned a doctorate in music in Boutros Daniel. (Al Arab) on caring for artists, supporting Hungary. May Haggi is an Egyptian writer. 12 January 19, 2020 News & Analysis Iraq Demonstrations continue despite attempts to derail protests after Soleimani’s killing

Azhar Al-Rubaie Mahdi al-Muhandis in a US drone Similar tactics were carried out them to mourn in another place “Soleimani’s killing is a humani- strike January 3. by Hashed supporters in Basra but they refused,” Abdullah al- tarian crime. It was a shock to me. The strike was ordered by US January 5. They staged a rival Saleh, a 31-year-old Basra resident We expressed our condemnation Basra President Donald Trump follow- gathering during which mourners said. of his killing,” said Khairyah al- ing attacks by shouted “No, no America. Yes, yes “Soleimani is an Iranian figure Salih, a 39-year-old in Baghdad. raqi protesters said they have the Iran-backed Soleimani.” The Hashed support- and his funeral near us is a provo- “It is against Iraq’s sovereignty come under threats from Iran- Al-Hashed al- ers also reportedly resorted to vio- cation to us because one of our de- as Soleimani has been killed on backed militias following the Shaabi against lence. mands is to get rid of Iran’s pres- Iraqi soil. I demand the govern- I killing of Iranian Major-Gener- the US Embassy “The mourners marched ence in Iraq,” said Saleh. “We were ment cancel the security agree- al Qassem Soleimani but activists in Baghdad. towards us to bring the holding only Iraq’s flags and the ment between Iraq and the United vowed to carry on demonstrations. Hashed support- funeral processions mourners were carrying militias’ States and stop US troops from Witnesses said masked gunmen ers said they were close to our flags. They opened fire and set our killing whoever they want.” killed Ahmed Abdelsamad, 39, a avenging the death tents, we tents on fire. Thanks to God, there correspondent of Iraqi l Dijla TV, of 25 members of asked were no deaths.” and his videographer Safaa Ghali, the Kata’ib Hezbol- Muhannad Shakir, a 28-year-old Demonstrators in Iraq 37 as they were reporting on pro- lah militia killed in a from Nasiriya, put some blame shouted “No America and no tests in Basra January 10. US strike. on the government. “The Iraqi Iran. Sunnis and Shias are all “Two 4×4 pickup vehicles and a The latest message government bears part of the brothers.” motorcycle approached [the car of of the Iraqi protesters responsibility in the Iran-US the journalists] in front of the Bas- is that they don’t want tensions. It is a part of the Ali Kareem Talib, an activist ra police station, opened fire and Iraq to be in the cross- problem in all that has from Basra, branded the vote in escaped. Ahmed died immediately fire of a war between happened as it has not the Iraqi parliament calling for the inside the car and Safaa minutes Tehran and Washing- taken any tangible ac- departure of US troops from Iraq later at hospital,” one witness said, ton. tions,” he said. “a stupid decision.” He added that on condition of anonymity. Demonstrators shout- “Iran-backed mili- the protest movement would not “I could not tell how many were ed “No America and no tias brought their fu- drop its demand to end Iranian inside the [assailants’] vehicles Iran. Sunnis and Shias neral close to the pro- meddling in Iraq. but their cars were without plates. are all brothers.” They re- testers in my city just “The mourners who were mostly What surprised me is that the in- ceived vocal support from to make a mess and affiliated with Iran-backed militias cident happened in front of the Iraq’s Shia Grand Ayatol- chaos and to show want to put an end to our protests security forces’ eyes but they have lah Ali al-Sistani, who the world that our but they could not do so as long as done nothing.” used his Friday sermon to demonstrations there are brave protesters on the Observers said Abdelsamad and underscore the need for are not peaceful ground,” said Talib. Ghali were assassinated because protecting Iraqi sovereignty as they are Sarkawt Shamsulddin, a mem- of their reporting on the protests, and keeping the country out of looking for internal feud. Our pro- ber of the Future bloc in parlia- which often sheds an unfavour- regional and international battles. tests are peaceful and will contin- ment, said: “Iraqi protesters are able light on the actions Iraqi mi- Hashed supporters sought to ue to be like that,” said Shakir. already affected by the tensions litiamen and their Iranian backers. capitalise on the death of Soleim- “Maybe the mourners wanted between the US and Iran. The mi- Protesters marched January 17 ani and Muhandis by derailing to avenge Soleimani’s killing and litias gained back some popularity in Basra to demand that authori- anti-government protests. They they really got shocked when but the continuation of the peace- ties reveal the identity of those pressured Iraqis to go mourn the they saw Iraqis accept Soleimani’s ful demonstrations will bring back who killed the journalists and put militia leaders in areas that used to death. I totally welcome Soleima- the attention to them. them on trial. They called for an draw anti-government protesters. ni’s killing. I hope that move will “I believe Iran’s influence in Iraq end to all violence against activists Hashed supporters, some of curb the Iranian presence in our goes beyond the role of one person and journalists in Iraq. whom were armed, stormed al- country. [like Soleimani]. In order to mini- Clashes between protesters and Habboubi Square in Nasiriya on Mass anti-government protests mise foreign intervention in Iraq, security forces erupted the same January 7 and clashed with anti- began in Iraq October 1, calling we need to strengthen our insti- day in central Baghdad, killing two government demonstrators. Pro- for jobs and basic services, radi- tutions and bring back Iraq to its demonstrators and injuring over a testers were fired upon and their cal changes to the political sys- citizens.” dozen, according to officials. tents torched. At least six people tem and an end to corruption as Mass anti-government protests were injured. well as to Iranian meddling in the Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance resumed January 10 in Baghdad Kata’ib Hezbollah sought to country. journalist based in Iraq. and southern provinces after a force the protesters to take part For Hashed supporters, the His writing focuses on politics, brief interruption following the in mourning ceremonies and its death of Soleimani is seen as a health, society, wars and human killing of Soleimani and Iran- members assaulted those who loss. They credited him with help- rights. Follow him on Twitter: backed Iraqi militia leader Abu openly refused to take part. ing Iraq defeat the Islamic State. @AzherRubaie. Viewpoint The myth of state accountability in Iraq

raq’s October uprising media, has seen criticism apply his involvement in the military had little bearing on the deter- beckoned a predictable to Iraqi Journalists Syndicate Operation Knight’s Charge tar- mined use of extralegal violence response from Baghdad, (IJS). This was the charge made geting the Sadrist Mahdi Army by its allies in Baghdad. Echoing Nazli Tarzi whose survival has relied by Abdelsamad’s close colleague militia network. local government bodies and upon extralegal violence Mohmad Al Seyyed Mohsen on On the Iraqi News Network, activists, UN Special Representa- — from snipers-for-hire to his “The Compass” programme. the former lieutenant told how tive for Iraq Jeanine Hennis- Iinternet blackouts. The death IJS President Moayad al-Lami the power of the gun erodes law Plasschaert pressed for legal count is rising while the names has repeatedly called for truth enforcement. High-ranking offi- action in the name of upholding of fallen — men, women, chil- over the assassination of report- cials prefer silence, he said, then justice. She also condemned the dren and families — are publicly ers and activists but the monoto- to see their families slaughtered shooting of unarmed protesters acknowledged. ny of Lami’s imploration speaks by criminal gangs that run the as an “atrocity.” What is not is the identity of to the triumph of criminality. oil-rich province. As the present moment shows, those responsible. A journalist in Basra who Iraq’s violence-prone leadership Indifference towards the spoke to The Arab Weekly on behaves unphased, as the sub- growing tally of casualties condition of anonymity put the ject of accountability slips out stretching across southern Iraq onus on the IJS to expose wield- As the present of the headlines. Other advo- and the iron fist state-aligned ers of force, not the government moment shows, Iraq’s cacy calls urging de-escalation forces cower behind expose the itself. focused on violence on Iraqi soil mythical texture of state ac- “These outfits have proven violence-prone by Washington, as militias wage countability. unreliable as efforts have not leadership behaves violent campaigns against civil- Thuggery and not the law — translated into actionable re- unphased, as the ians. Accountability is some- whose penal codes rehearse sults,” the 34-year-old broadcast thing perpetrators have evaded. the right admonitions — deter- journalist said. As protesters subject of Responsibility was tacitly mines the course of state action. pass the one 100-day mark, the accountability slips expressed by the resignation of Condemnation is reserved for death of 30 journalists has been now-caretaker Prime Minister civilians while the criminally recorded by the Iraqi War Crimes out of the headlines. Adel Abdul-Mahdi once the righteous are let off the hook. Documentation Centre. death count reached 400. The The shield journalists were Arguably, mechanisms of ac- The violence that has painted number is close to double that promised after the ratifica- countability have been weap- Iraq’s provinces red parallels figure now. tion of the country’s Journalist onised as criminal fraternities the violence that met Sunni-led A litany of unanswered ques- Protection law in 2011 has again allied to officials serve as protec- protests ruthlessly crushed un- tions over unabated killings of exposed the weakness of legisla- tion rackets under the logic of der former Prime Minister Nuri demonstrators reveals at the tion that civil society rejected on “scratch my back and I’ll scratch al-Maliki’s orders from 2012-14. level of the existing administra- Condemnation is proposal as yet another muzzle yours.” The strategy was a necessary tion an accountability impasse on press freedom. The political economy of pro- guarantee of state survival but or myth for those Iraqis that reserved for civilians The assassination of Dijla TV tection racketeering is particu- its deployment today may not paid the cost for state failure while the criminally journalist Ahmed Abdelsamad larly apparent in Basra, as shown extend Baghdad the lifeline it with young blood. and cameraman Safaa Ghali by by revelations from former com- once did. righteous are let off Iran-serving militias on Janu- mander of forces in Basra Jalil Stern remarks from the United Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly the hook. ary 10, as comrades told local Khalaf, who was dismissed for Nations for de-escalation have correspondent in London. January 19, 2020 13 News & Analysis Syria Putin boldly pursues complex objectives in Syria

Sami Moubayed That is what Putin offered the Israelis in 2018, when they com- plained that restoring Syrian troops Beirut to the border area meant a come- back for Hezbollah. To give them ussian President Vladimir additional guarantees, he deployed Putin kicked off the year Russian military police in southern with two big moves on Syria, where, along with the United R Syria. First was his inaugu- Nations, they would make sure that ral visit to Damascus, just days af- neither Hezbollah nor ISIS got close ter the US assassination of Iranian to the Israeli-Syrian border. Major-General Qassem Soleimani, which left everyone wondering Pressuring the Kurds where and how Iran would respond The two sides hope to ham- to the killing of a top general. mer out a deal over Idlib, the last The battlefields for a US-Iranian stronghold of the Syrian opposi- confrontation by proxy were either tion, which Putin hopes Turkey Syria, Lebanon or Iraq. By show- will abandon now that it has got its ing up in Damascus in the midst of safe zone, between Ras al-Ayn and the crisis, Putin seemed to be say- Tal Abyad, in addition to the cities ing: “Keep Syria out of this.” It was of Jarabulus, Azaz, al-Bab and Af- a multifaceted message, aimed at rin. both Iran and the United States. Finally, the Russian sponsorship That’s exactly what the Iranians of Syrian-Turkish talks hopes to did, choosing to respond in Iraq, pressure the Kurds to reconsider where the assassination had taken their reluctance to re-engage with place. It would have been very easy Damascus, after showing much en- for them to strike US troops in the thusiasm for it last October. countryside of Deir ez-Zor, where That enthusiasm waned, howev- they stayed behind last year, os- er, after US President Donald Trump tensibly to protect the oil from the announced that he would be keep- Islamic State (ISIS) but they didn’t, ing troops in north-eastern Syria, Shielding Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin (C), Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu (R) and Syrian steering clear from Putin’s fiefdom. prompting most Kurdish players to President Bashar Assad meet in Damascus, January 7. (Reuters) reconsider an agreement they had Reviving Adana signed with Damascus, under Rus- Putin’s second move was arrang- sian auspices, on October 13. Militarily, he has a two-way framework in which neither the ing an uphill battle after the melt- ing a high-profile meeting in Mos- After promising to disband the agenda. One is to retake Idlib and, Americans, the French, British nor down in neighbouring Lebanon and cow between Syrian and Turkish Syrian Democratic Forces and once that is achieved, there would the Saudis are present. the passing of the Caesar Act by the intelligence chiefs. The first such the People’s Protection Units and be only one nemesis left standing in At the UN-mandated convention US Congress. Putin needs money public meeting in almost ten years, pledging to incorporate them into the Syrian battlefield — the United in Switzerland, Putin has very little for Syria to finance reconstruction, it had three objectives. One was to the Syrian Army, the Kurds back- States. authority over what happens be- help return refugees and curb Syr- discuss the 1998 Adana agreement tracked and are trying to create This is the only thing that the cause a multitude of countries are ia’s reliance on Iran. between Syria and Turkey, which, a Kurdish unit within the Syrian Russians, Syrians, Turks and Irani- involved in the process. Putin only If the Syrian economy collapses, if revisited, could lead to normali- Army, composed of these two US- ans all seem to agree on and they agreed to the Geneva process un- so would everything else in the sation of relations between the two armed militias. have a joint objective in driving the willingly, considering it the prod- country, destroying all the Russian countries. They are also trying to maintain Americans out. The assassination uct of former US Secretary of State president has been working for their flag and semi-autonomy, feel- of Soleimani adds to anti-Ameri- John Kerry. since his troops entered the battle- By showing up in Damascus ing protected once again by the canism across the region and after It is highly unlikely that the con- field in September 2015. Americans. That is a red line that being ejected from Iraq — if it hap- stitutional talks will bear fruit this For any of the above to see the in the midst of the crisis, neither Damascus nor Ankara will pens — it would become increasing- year but Putin wants them in mo- light, Putin needs to work on Syria Putin seemed to be saying: accept, prompting them to work ly difficult for them to stay in Syria. tion to convince the international with his partners — Iran and Tur- “Keep Syria out of this.” together with the Russians to either community that the political pro- key — away from US meddling. That pressure the Kurds to reconsider or Political agenda cess has started in Syria, in accord- becomes more doable as the presi- Putin has been toying with the coordinate against them, militarily Politically, Putin hopes to jump- ance with UN Security Council Res- dential elections approach in the revival of Adana since February if needed, to keep them away from start the constitutional talks that olution 2254 and, thus, the country United States, meaning little to no 2019 but with amendments that the borders. collapsed shortly after they started is eligible for the removal of some appetite or time for Syria in Wash- would lead to the deployment of last year and possibly to shift them sanctions — at least by the Europe- ington. Russian troops along the Syrian- Driving out the Americans from Geneva to Nur-Sultan (previ- an Union. Turkish border instead of only Syr- That, however, is only a fraction ously Astana). The softening of sanctions is es- Sami Moubayed is a Syrian ian forces to keep the territory from of what Putin has in store for Syria The Astana process is the brain- sential to breathe some life into the historian and author of “Under the the Kurds or ISIS. in 2020. child of the Russian president — a cash-strapped Syrian economy, fac- Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Lack of humanitarian aid to Idlib made worse by diplomatic wrangling

Up to 3 million civilians live in and supplying jihadist elements. of other things — like quickly of compliance and calm. the Idlib enclave, many of them Those fears were not unreason- collapsing environment of Syria. “If Turkey actually has some refugees from other parts of able but they were unreasonably There is a huge collapse of some- kind of strategy with Idlib, it’s James Snell Syria, deported to the province applied and selectively enforced, thing coming in the near future,” fully in line with Russia’s plans by the victors of local struggles. depriving many of necessities. he said. on Idlib or — at least [this is] Despite infrequent ceasefire The new UN arrangement de- The shortages and the depriva- communicated between them… ust as the UN aid mission agreements, they are repeatedly creased the number of available tions come amid continual fight- like pretty much every ceasefire to the rebel- and Islamist- attacked from the air by the As- border crossings into Syria and ing. A ceasefire was proposed and killing just shifts from front line held enclave around Idlib sad regime and its Russian allies. halved the length of the mis- agreed by Russia and Turkey soldiers to civilians,” Nahas said. province in northern The regime’s coalition has sion, requiring its renewal in but continually violated Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, Syria was about to col- made attempts to capture six months. Fewer crossings from the moment it was co-director of the Syrian medical lapse, the movement of significant towns and centres mean more going without and to have gone into effect. NGO Doctors Under Fire, said: Jaid was reapproved — now in a of resistance in Idlib in recent the new deal means that even Bombings continued in “Every conceivable war crime reduced form. months and has moved forces those straightened circum- marketplaces and bak- has been perpetrated in Syria Diplomatic wrangling on the to face the portion of Aleppo stances are precarious and eries, with dozens and condoned, it would appear, UN Security Council between province held by its opponents. time-limited. killed. by the UN and others. Extensive Russia and China, which support An overwhelming offensive is ex- Noor Nahas, an “What we’re use of chemical weapons has Syrian President Bashar Assad, pected and, every time it appears open-source seeing right now been hugely successful and [is] and Britain, France and the Unit- that an attack has begun, tens of researcher, said with the viola- now in the armoury of every ed States, which nominally do thousands of refugees attempt to the situation tion is just more dictator, despot, rogue state and not, led to a series of abstentions escape it, heading north towards is “basically of the same: terrorist.” that gave the process a rushed the Turkish border. just another A ceasefire on “Constant and direct targeting and incomplete feeling. That border is closed and the failure of the military fronts of hospitals and medical staff [in UK Permanent Representa- people in Idlib are without a internation- and continued vio- Idlib] have left one major hospi- tive to the United Nations place to go. al commu- lation of that cease- tal and few clinics to deal with Karen Pierce called the deal, as While they await the attack, nity.” fire by the Russian millions of women and children. eventually passed, a “woefully these people depend on outside “Com- government and My dear friend of many years, inadequate response” that did aid, given the embargoes placed bine [it] Syrian regime,” Dr Omar, a consultant surgeon not account for the dire situation on moving food and other neces- with the Nahas said. in one of the few facilities still those in Idlib and its surrounds sities to Idlib through Syria. cutting of Turkey, in its operating in Idlib, confirms he are facing. Aid to civil society projects — the already role as the nominal and his staff have not been paid such as the volunteer rescuers in extremely small amount defenders of Idlib, for six months and are out of all Syria Civil Defence, commonly of aid entering Syria and as well as the cor- medicines, including the most known as the White Helmets the blocking of aid by ridor through which basic, like paracetamol,” de Up to 3 million — has been restricted by inter- the flow of [inter- aid to the province Bretton-Gordon said. national backers as the security nally displaced persons passes, negotiates “And now these people are to civilians live in the of the Assad regime appears and] refugees from Syria with Russia and the be starved and allowed to die for Idlib enclave, many of increasingly unchallenged. into Turkey, Jordan and regime and has taken want of the most basic medical Those who depend on interna- other countries; and to mounting joint supplies and help.” them refugees from tional aid have had it restricted the devaluation of the patrols with both to other parts of Syria. amid international fear of aiding currency; plus all sorts enforce a false sense James Snell is a British journalist. 14 January 19, 2020 News & Analysis Lebanon Hezbollah’s support for Iran exposes its vulnerabilities at home and abroad

Simon Speakman Cordall Nasrallah maintained that “the Americans must remove their bases, soldiers and officers and Tunis ships from our region. The alterna- tive… to leaving vertically is leav- ith violence escalating ing horizontally. This is a decisive on the streets of Leba- and firm decision.” non, Hezbollah’s com- He used part of his 90-minute ad- W mitment to supporting dress to highlight the message that any potential Iranian response to Iran’s retaliation against US bases the assassination of Iranian Major- intends for Israel, a country with General Qassem Soleimani risks which Lebanon remains in a state exposing the group’s vulnerabili- of war. ties at home and abroad. “The attack on the American All through its existence, Iran’s bases is also a strong message to Lebanese ally has maintained a the Zionist entity, that is always dual identity: that of a powerful planning to ‘play’ with Iran. [Israeli armed Shia group at home and Prime Minister Binyamin] Netan- an active agent of Iranian foreign yahu always dreams of sending his policy and member of the so-called air force to attack the infrastructure axis of resistance abroad. or nuclear facilities in Iran,” Nasral- This apparently schizophrenic lah said. approach to its identity has not Elie Abouaoun, director of the been without risks. However, as MENA programme at the US Insti- Hezbollah Secretary-General Has- tute of Peace, said Nasrallah reiter- san Nasrallah voices support for ated that the US military in the re- Iran’s targeting of US military sites, gion is the target but vowed to end he risks stoking resistance to his the US military presence in “days group’s political power at home or weeks.” and alienating potential interna- While Abouaoun said he doubt- tional help for the failing Lebanese ed that was achievable, he added: state. “Even if the US decides to with- draw, it will take more than “days/ weeks” to do it. Further exacerbating “So the speech has to be looked Hezbollah’s domestic at from the two-pronged angle: challenges are clear rules of engagement that pre- protests that have serve the Iranian regime and its Proxy’s tribute. Supporters of the Shia Hezbollah movement hold posters of slain Iranian Major-General dominated public life allies from an all-out war that will Qassem Soleimani as the movement’s leader delivers a speech in Beirut’s southern suburbs, January 5. across Lebanon since be detrimental to Iran while main- (AFP) October. taining the thrust of their own con- stituency, especially at a time when the brink of bankruptcy, with a pub- to engender much goodwill in the on such transfers. Addressing supporters in Beirut Iranians, thousands of Iraqi Shias lic debt burden equivalent to 150% international community. Domestic concerns have yet on January 12, Nasrallah described — and part of Hezbollah base — are and a budget deficit equal to 11% of Further exacerbating Hezbol- to act as much of a brake on Hez- Iran’s limited strike against two US protesting in the streets in Iran, GDP. The cost of servicing its debt is lah’s domestic challenges are pro- bollah’s international ambitions. bases in Iraq as a “slap” and as a Iraq and Lebanon,” he said. reportedly almost $4 billion a year. tests that have dominated public There is no doubt that Hezbollah “first step down a long path” that Along with the unrest in the re- Potentially offsetting Lebanon’s life across Lebanon since October. will be part of the anti-US campaign would eventually see US troops gion’s Shia community are more dire financial circumstances is the These took an ominous turn with in the region, Abouaoun said. withdraw from the region. prosaic domestic concerns. Leba- $11 billion in international pledges attacks on banks in the Beirut com- However, how close that may be However, as Nasrallah threat- non is one of the world’s most in- made at the 2018 CEDRE confer- mercial hub of Hamra, highlighting to home remained uncertain. ened bloody revenge abroad, Hez- debted countries, one ill-prepared ence that were conditional on in- public anger at Lebanon’s political “The space to carry out military bollah’s position was under in- to weather the push back it might ternal reforms and anti-corruption and financial elite. actions in Lebanon will be limited creasing challenge at home. Across face should one of its most promi- measures. While even these have Anti-government protesters said given the fact that the US military Lebanon, protesters vented their nent political and military groups yet to materialise, Hezbollah’s Lebanon’s commercial banks have presence in Lebanon is very light anger at the Lebanese political escalate its regional adventurism participation in a wider campaign retained the public’s deposits while and almost invisible,” he said. class, in which Hezbollah and its in support of Tehran. of retaliation against the United allowing politicians, senior civil allies in the Amal Movement play After years of financial decline, States and its allies in response to servants and bank owners to move Simon Speakman Cordall is a pivotal roles. Lebanon is regarded as teetering on the killing of Soleimani is unlikely money abroad despite restrictions freelance writer.

Viewpoint Lebanon’s next government is doomed to fail

ne month has passed cabinet. Initial drafts of his lineup of inadequate or absent economic Minister form the next since Hassan Diab indicated otherwise. planning and that a few reforms government. They would not mind was designated The public perception is that are sufficient to invite the interna- if Diab steps down or perhaps be Makram Rabah by 69 members of Diab is mostly indebted to Gebran tional community to inject money forced by the street to resign. parliament to form Bassil, the head of the Free Patri- into Lebanon’s ailing economy. The reality remains that Hariri the next Lebanese otic Movement, Hezbollah’s main Even before the ink dried on is the only figure capable of giving Ogovernment. Christian ally, and the son-in-law Diab’s decree, the international Hezbollah enough international Diab is a former minister of of Lebanese President Michael media branded him a Hezbollah- protection for the militant move- education and an engineering pro- Aoun. backed prime minister, making ment to operate or so they think. fessor at the American University While Bassil has been forced to his task to rally the support of the Bassil, on the other hand, wants of Beirut. His tasks at the head sit out the next cabinet, mainly international community next to to personally return to govern- of the cabinet are not short of because of the public’s insistence none. ment and ensure that he is the herculean. He must handle many of a non-partisan and transparent Soberly, Jan Kubis, the UN only contender for the presidency impossible feats, starting with a government, this did not prevent special coordinator for Lebanon, when his father-in-law’s term full-fledged political crisis, a shat- him from trying to hijack Diab’s posted on Twitter: “Another day expires. tered economy and a nationwide government by proposing people of confusion around the forma- Diab might perhaps go to parlia- revolt asking for real and lasting who seemingly have the necessary tion of a government, amid the ment to test whether his cabinet political change. technical credentials but ultimate- increasingly angry protests and can win a vote of confidence. If it Since his designation as prime ly report to Bassil. free-falling economy. Politicians, fails, it will replace Hariri’s as the minister, Diab has asked the Bassil did not carry out that pro- don’t blame the people, blame caretaker government and force public for time to put together a cess subtly but made sure to leave yourselves for this dangerous Hariri to concede to the terms of roster of capable and seemingly his fingerprints to clearly indicate chaos.” Hezbollah and its allies. independent technocrats who can he was the true powerbroker and The riots in Beirut and the Regardless of the failure or carry out much-needed reforms that Diab was only window dress- resurgence of the revolution led success of the formation process, to salvage Lebanon and return it ing. the ruling establishment to try to the Diab affair is proof that the to normalcy, whatever that might Perhaps more indicative of the use the events to push through political elite and all of Lebanon mean. deep political crisis is the shame- the cabinet formation and to are a sinking ship and, instead Diab, however, is running out of ful manner in which the political claim that the only way to stop the of steering this ship to port and time. He has been unable to form elite deal with Diab and the pro- violence, as well as the economic conducting essential repairs, the a government that could muster cess. Despite publicly decelerating collapse, was to endorse Diab’s ruling clique is using a thimble to The riots in Beirut and the required votes in parliament their willingness to expedite and feeble proposed government. bail out the water, confirming its the resurgence of the and, more important, to appease facilitate the process, the ruling The proposed government ineptitude and wickedness. revolution led the and win the trust of the people on establishment never misses a lineup indicates that Diab’s gov- the streets. chance to use its sectarian power ernment is a Trojan horse for both Makram Rabah is a lecturer at ruling establishment He has insisted that his des- base to veto a cabinet and remind Hezbollah and Bassil, each with the American University of Beirut to use the events to ignation by the pro-Iran faction the public of its aversion to sur- their own intended goals. and author of “Conflict on Mount does not mean he would do its rendering even a morsel of power. Surprisingly, Hezbollah and Lebanon: The Druze, the Maron- push through the bidding but, rather, that he is free Diab, as well as the people be- parliament Speaker ites and Collective Memory” cabinet formation. to choose the members of his hind him, act as if the crisis is one prefer that former Lebanese Prime (Edinburgh University Press). January 19, 2020 15 Viewpoint Palestine Israel Soleimani is no Arafat and Haniyeh should know that

Palestinians fought fierce battles against the Israeli occupation dur- ing the first intifada, the fight of the Marwan Kanafani Jerusalem Tunnel and the second intifada and inflicted the greatest losses on Israel long before they obody denies the had access to rockets, missiles or right of Ismail Hani- other advanced weaponry. yeh, leader of the If Hamas wants an explanation Palestinian Hamas for how that precious part of the movement, to go on Palestinian lands was preserved political tours in sup- it need not look further than the Nport of the cause of the Palestinian unity and sacrifices of the Pales- people and their legitimate goals. tinian people, the bravery of their However, when the head of the youth from both Fatah and Hamas Hamas political bureau chooses and from the Palestinian factions as to bestow the title of “Al-Quds a whole. No, it was not the rockets martyr” on Iranian Major-General nor was it reliance on any foreign Qassem Soleimani, the leader of party. al-Quds Force who was killed in With the announcement of presi- an American drone strike, he is dential and legislative elections, trespassing on political boundaries. the Palestinian political scene That title is the one, among many regained some of its vitality but possible others, that the Palestinian developments in the region cast a people chose for their leader, the heavy shadow over the Palestinian martyr Yasser Arafat. situation and turned the much-an- Comparing Soleimani to the great ticipated elections into a probable Arafat hurts the feelings of most mirage. Palestinians and Haniyeh knows Israel has never been willing to it. So how dare he stretch his arms take any step, measure or back any from Iran over thousands of kilo- achievement that would support metres to morally vandalise a tomb and consolidate the Palestinian Wrong comparison. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh speaks at the funeral of Iranian Major-General most cherished by Palestinians, a presence or give international ac- Qassem Soleimani, in Tehran, January 6. (Reuters) tomb in the vicinity of the holy city ceptance to an entity with political of Jerusalem, and remove from its independence in a viable, connect- occupant the one title that the Pal- ed and sovereign state. It is also eastern Palestine and perhaps a from the cruel fate of wiping out to be just a short hop away. estinians bestowed in recognition true that elections would still be Palestinian Emirate in the south, decades of their struggle, sacrifices, Perhaps this mystery is one of his devotion to their struggle? possible if the Palestinians agreed along the lines of the split in Cy- martyrs, wounded and detainees. reason no Arab or Muslim head of This is nowhere near the to have them anyway and let the prus between Cyprus and Turkish The two major Palestinian move- state has proposed to intervene or gratitude and respect that Arafat best factions, parties and move- Cyprus? ments that have led the struggle demand an intervention for an in- reserved for Hamas’s late leader ments win. We don’t know the consequences and made sacrifices can restore ter-Palestinian summit, as is done and martyr Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. All or most of the obstacles and of another Palestinian failure. Will hope to the Palestinian people and daily in Arab, Islamic and African Arafat would refer to Sheikh Yassin conditions placed by Israel in the the Arab world split between sup- the peoples of the Arab nation that capitals with leaders opposing each using only the title of our “vener- path of that important Palestinian porters of the one-Palestinian-state have accompanied and supported other. able sheikh.” goal could be swept aside by Pales- solution and supporters of the two- our struggle and to all other people There is no way to change the Haniyeh’s words strongly reflect tinians agreeing on a timetable and Palestinian-entities solution? Will and governments in the world that course towards a real catastrophe the Palestinians’ divisions. It is a joint political programme, with there be in exchange an increased supported our goals, by bringing except for Palestinians agreeing to only natural that the discord about Arab and international support. Arab-Israeli rapprochement? back cohesion among our people, work together. the next Palestinian elections, Failing to have the elections will Such questions seem strange and agreeing on common goals and None of the rival factions will be which many Palestinians were lead to a very difficult Palestinian far from reality but they are core arriving at a common political able to triumph by clinging to one looking forward to, deepens, mak- situation at all political, economic questions that will shock, shake programme. or the other of the powers and alli- ing the elections rather distant. and living conditions levels and and dog the Palestinians as long The Palestinians, along with ances with specific agendas in the The Palestinian people, and the may undermine the limited accom- as they are divided and Fatah and the people of the Arab world, may region. They will not have the last whole world for that matter, know plishments of the past decades. Hamas fight each other with their wonder why the leaders of the two word even if they benefit from the that it was because of their courage Has the Palestinian dream of Arab, regional and international largest Palestinian movements find whole world’s money, support and and unity and not because of the having an independent Palestinian alliances. it easy to roam the world and meet weapons. abundance and diversity of their state evaporated or are we going Despite these complications, with all the state leaders in it but do weapons that they have saved their to have whatever is left of our land there is room for hope and time to not think of meeting with their Pal- Marwan Kanafani was an adviser to southern land since the Nakba. permanently split into a North- work to save the Palestinian people estinian counterpart, who happens Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.

Viewpoint Does the Palestinian cause still matter to Arabs and Muslims?

in sight. Everyone is busy trying to teract Iran have also changed the gather the shattered pieces of his or dynamics. Israel is no longer always her own life. viewed as the number one enemy Yousef Alhelou As a result, Palestinians are left — for some countries, it has been alone, surviving on conditional replaced by Iran. financial support from Western and More generally, the Muslim world eventy-two years into the Arab states. Israel’s policy of buying is divided. Each country and ruler Palestinian-Israeli con- time is working and Palestinians are is looking after their own interests. flict, the Arab world no fed up and frustrated, feeling aban- Alliances and agendas determine longer seems as fiercely doned by their fellow Arabs. the nature of relations between engaged in the struggle “In recent years, the Palestinian countries. Today’s foe could be for Palestinian rights that cause has received little attention tomorrow’s friend and vice-versa. Sit once championed. and priority for many reasons,” This is also true for Palestinians, While Palestinians have not lost political analyst Sharhabeel al- whose political alignments have the solidarity and sympathy of their Ghareeb said. “First, the internal complicated the scene. Some Pales- Arab brethren, the regional climate Palestinian political split, which has tinian political factions’ decisions has changed, shifting alliances and reflected negatively. Second, Israeli to strengthen relations with Iran, making the Palestinian plight less of propaganda creates despair and for example, or oppose peace talks a regional priority. frustration among Palestinians and with Israel put them in conflict with Divisions and political disagree- Arabs and weakens their resilience. other Arab countries. ments between Palestinians hin- Third, it’s because of turmoil and Israeli think-tanks and research dered efforts for a settlement to the conflicts in Arab countries that have Out of focus. A Palestinian man stands by a fence as he waits for a centres work around the clock conflict and sometimes alienated caused people in troubled countries travel permit to leave Gaza through the Rafah border crossing with to draw new long-term policies traditional allies, while instability to worry only about their fate and Egypt. (Reuters) to finish off what remains of the and conflict in Arab countries led to future.” Palestinian cause or to at least force a decline in support for the Pales- Husam al-Dajani, professor of po- ians’ two main rival political fac- of Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the Palestinian leadership to make tinian cause. litical science at Gaza’s Al-Ummah tions — Fatah and Hamas — has not the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and more concessions. Armed conflicts in Syria, Libya, University, said Israel is driving con- made its weak position any better. Lebanon — and closing the Palestine This is bad news, not only for Pal- Iraq, Yemen and Sudan have left flict between Arabs and Palestin- Dependent on sometimes condi- Liberation Organisation office in estinians but for the broader region. tens of thousands killed, injured, ians to undermine their cause and tional foreign aid, the Palestinian Washington. All these gifts to Israel Abandoning the Palestinian cause arrested and displaced, with no end strengthen its own position. Authority (PA) has taken a hit since significantly weakened the Palestin- without a just solution will not lead “Israel is somehow fuelling the US President Donald Trump took ian Authority. to stability in the region and, now conflicts and unrests in the Mid- office. During Trump’s presidency, The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is more than ever, they need as much dle East to weaken the Arab and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin more than 72 years old and, during support from their Arab and Muslim Muslim world by keeping them Netanyahu has received more finan- the past seven decades, Tel Aviv allies as they can get. While Palestinians busy fighting each other, causing cial, military, moral and diplomatic has been buying time, violating While the effects of the Palestin- have not lost the economic hardships, in addition to support than ever before. agreements it signed with the PA, ian struggle on the conscience and solidarity and weakening the morale and con- This has included the United including expansion of illegal set- sentiment of Arabs worldwide re- science of Arabs with the help of its States recognising Jerusalem as tlements to push Palestinians into main significant, for Palestinians to sympathy of their allies,” Dajani said. “It deepens the Israel’s capital and moving its submission, pressuring them to regain support and trust, they must Arab brethren, the division between Palestinians and embassy there, cutting off aid to accept what is being offered on the put up a unified front. makes reaching unity among them the PA and the UN Relief and Works table. regional climate a mirage.” Agency for Palestine Refugees, Some Arab countries’ moves to Yousef Alhelou is a Palestinian has changed. Feuding between the Palestin- the agency that caters to millions develop ties with Israel to coun- journalist living in London. 16 January 19, 2020 News & Analysis Turkey European fears over refugees foreshadow Merkel’s visit to Turkey

Thomas Seibert The United Nations said around 350,000 people have fled fight- ing in Idlib and are seeking shelter Istanbul near the Turkish border. The visit would be Merkel’s first urope’s “fear” of a new to Turkey since October 2018 when wave of refugees from the she attended a summit with Er- Middle East and North Af- dogan and the leaders of France E rica will take centre stage and Russia on the Syrian conflict. during a visit by German Chancel- Merkel, Erdogan, French President lor Angela Merkel in Turkey Janu- Emmanuel Macron and British ary 24, observers said. Prime Minister Boris Johnson met Merkel is to meet with Turkish for talks on Syria on the sidelines President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of a NATO summit in December. only days after the two leaders are Erdogan said the second summit to attend the January 19 conference of that quartet has been scheduled in Berlin on the Libyan conflict. for February in Istanbul. Following the arrival of hun- Erdogan warned several times dreds of thousands of Syrian ref- that Turkey could “open the gates” ugees in Europe in 2015, Turkey and send refugees to Europe if the and the European Union signed an European Union does not do more agreement in 2016 that asked Tur- to help Ankara and contain the Syr- Hints of blackmail. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip (DPA) key to reduce the number of peo- ian crisis. Erdogan in New York, last September. ple crossing over from its territory Among other things, Turkey is to the nearby islands of EU mem- demanding EU support for its plan “but what I hear from politicians concern about the refugee situ- The Istanbul visit provides Mer- ber Greece. In return, the Europe- to resettle up to 2 million Syrians of all kinds of parties in Berlin is ation, which has led to a dispute kel with a chance to follow up the an Union promised $6.7 billion in in a “safe zone” planned in north- that the fear is there. ‘Oh my God, between EU members about which Libyan issue with Erdogan shortly financial aid to Turkey for looking ern Syria captured by the Turkish he is blackmailing us,’ is what they countries should accept the mi- after the Berlin summit. after Syrian refugees there. Army during a military interven- are saying.” grants, was the main motive for “Berlin is an opportunity to re- tion last October. European leaders Brakel said Turkey was keen to Merkel’s initiative to organise the start the political process and build have shown little enthusiasm for keep the deal alive because the Berlin summit on Libya. on the pause in fighting,” said a German Chancellor Angela the project, which could cost more agreement was one of the few Erdogan has said he was sending Western diplomat quoted by Reu- Merkel is to visit Turkey than $22 billion, Turkish media re- “anchors” tying Turkey to Europe Turkish troops to Libya to support ters. January 24. ports said. after years of unsuccessful EU the Tripoli-based government of A 6-page draft communique Kristian Brakel, Turkey rep- membership talks and a cooling of Fayez al-Sarraj against an attack seen by Reuters calls for “credible, Merkel, head of the European resentative of the Heinrich Boll relations. The agreement provided by Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s verifiable, sequenced and recipro- Union’s biggest economy, was a Foundation, which is associated Turkey “with a certain potential to Libyan National Army. cal steps” starting with a truce to driving force behind the deal. One with the German Green party, said issue threats” to Europe, he added. Despite being on opposing sides be monitored by technical com- of the issues likely to be discussed European politicians were in a “They want to be able to say to in the conflict, Erdogan teamed mittees. between her and Erdogan in Istan- panic about Erdogan’s threats even the Europeans: ‘Look, you have to with Russian President Vladimir That could involve beefing up bul is to work out how the future though the Turkish leader was un- feel a little responsible for Syria as Putin in calling for a ceasefire. the existing UN mission in Libya for the refugee agreement would likely to follow through with them. well,’” he said. Merkel also visited Putin for talks or deploying troops from Rus- look after the financial support ar- Sending large numbers of refugees Turkey’s foray into the Libyan about Libya. sia, Turkey or other countries, the rangement ran out last year. to Europe would break the 2016 conflict could afford Ankara -ad “I think it’s an advantage for the diplomats said. The draft vaguely Turkey has taken in 3.6 mil- refugee agreement, Brakel said. ditional leverage over Europe be- Turks that they now play a sig- mentioned long-delayed plans lion Syrians and is concerned that “I don’t believe the Turkish side cause years of civil war have made nificant role in efforts to solve the for elections and a national gov- fighting in the neighbouring Syr- is greatly interested in breaking Libya a major staging post for refu- Libyan conflict, because that is in ernment, without any timeline, ian province of Idlib could send the deal,” Brakel said of Erdogan’s gees trying to reach the European the interest of most EU countries just calling for UN-led follow-up thousands more over the border. remarks about opening the gates, Union’s southernmost parts. EU as well,” Brakel said. meetings. Viewpoint Ghosts of all-out war hovering over the Mediterranean

ut simply, Erdogan Germany’s diplomatic move making in Washington remains Any hope that Ankara will is growing into a key is clouded by a simple fact: By unrepaired and international make a U-turn and give up on its player amid the geo- inviting the Turkish side, the Eu- “legalistic” support for the Trip- deal with Tripoli without serious “ political changes in ropean Union, in general terms, oli-based government persists, concessions from the European Yavuz Baydar the Middle East and is welcoming a fait accompli he will be given enough time to Union or accept to sit at the table the Eastern Medi- signed by Ankara, by its sending put a foothold in Libya, making with Cyprus on East Med energy terranean,P as Turkey is acquiring jihadist mercenaries onto Libyan Turkey’s military presence there talks is nothing but a pipe dream. regional superpower status,” wrote soil. permanent. What Athens faces deep Angelos Stangos in the Greek This has emboldened Erdogan, This will give him a bargaining anxiety about is how determined Kathimerini newspaper referring who raised the stakes by declar- chip in the country and, ulti- Ankara is to escalate the conflict to Turkish President Recep Tayyip ing that Turkish troops would mately, see him emerge as the in the Aegean and Eastern Med Erdogan. be sent to Libya. Once this is leader who forges control of the to its breaking point. The Greek “Worse,” Stangos added, “that is done — and Erdogan is a man of Muslim Brotherhood ideology, Defence Ministry’s general staff all creating the impression that, in his word — the European Union maintaining the “balance of ter- said Turkish military aircraft the eyes of the West — the United would lose more influence in ror,” to use a Cold War term, in violated Greece’s airspace 4,811 States and the European Union Libya, with the threat of jihad- North Africa. times in 2019, the largest number (perhaps for different reasons) — ism rising, and Erdogan may feel Stangos hits on the core of the in one calendar year since 1987. Greece belongs to the Middle East much more comfortable making dilemma facing the European Turkish Navy warships have and not Europe.” new demands, gaining more Union — especially France, Italy increasingly violated Greece’s This observation underlines a political territory. and Greece in its southern flank. national waters as well. The remarkable weakness in the set-up Some may argue that Erdog- First, for Erdogan, the agenda number of violations increased of the January 19 Berlin Confer- an’s manoeuvre will not work in is to expand on a blend of Islam- from 133 in 2010 to 299 in 2015 to ence on the Libyan conflict. In a Libya, that it is one step too far ism and radical nationalism be- a staggering 2,032 in 2019. monumental error, the German for the international community yond Turkey’s borders. Second, The crisis encompassing the government declined to invite to tolerate. There is likely some what Germany represses in its Eastern Med and Libya reveals an Tunisia, which borders Libya and truth to that. How Turkey will be collective unconscious is that unsettling fact: There is a deadly has a massive stake in seeing the able to send troops to a distant Turkey’s foreign policy is nearly game being played. Irrational conflict resolved, and Greece, country across the Mediterra- entirely militarised and it is no adventurism is seeing jihadists which is a key player in the quag- nean is a big question. Whether longer interested in diplomatic deployed to a conflict zone and a mire developing in the Eastern or not the large-scale opposition tactics. mighty power, Turkey, is seeking Mediterranean. to the move at home will bring As noted by Unal Cevikozn, to trigger a military confronta- Libya’s crisis has been com- new momentum against him is a former diplomat and an MP tion with Greece. pounded by an agreement be- another one. with Turkey’s main opposition The choice will be whether For Erdogan, the tween Ankara and the UN-backed However, these questions may Republican People’s Party: “Tur- or not the world acts together agenda is to Government of National Accord, be hiding Erdogan’s long-term key, with its weakening atten- to deter militaristic expansion. expand on a blend led by Fayez al-Sarraj in Tripoli, strategy: The Turkish leader tion on diplomacy and peaceful Perhaps it is time for US and EU which has Erdogan’s fingerprints calculates that, as long as his resolution of conflicts, also loses warships to intensely patrol the of Islamism and all over it. The international com- divisive policies within the its soft power capacity. It would hot waters of the Mediterranean. radical nationalism munity’s inability to understand European Union are success- not be unfair to suggest that this Erdogan’s intentions hangs over ful, general confusion in Berlin, new approach of Turkey in the Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish beyond Turkey’s the gathering in Berlin, eroding Rome and London continues, region is perceived like ‘gunboat journalist and regular columnist borders. hopes for a solution to the conflict. the broken chain of decision diplomacy’.” for The Arab Weekly. January 19, 2020 17 News & Analysis Iran For decades Iranians have risen up, only to be repressed

Joseph Krauss ics of the government saw him as a war hero who helped defeat the Islamic State and resisted Western Dubai hegemony in the Middle East. Iranian security forces have emonstrations that erupt- shown in the past that they will ed after Iran admitted use deadly force against anyone to accidentally shooting threatening the Islamic Republic, D down a passenger plane most recently in November, when during a tense standoff with the rights groups say hundreds of peo- United States are the latest of waves ple were killed in demonstrations of protest going back to the 1979 Is- sparked by a hike in petrol prices. lamic Revolution, all of which have Here is a look at protests in Iran been violently suppressed. and how its theocracy prevailed. Iranians were appalled by the downing of the Ukrainian jetlin- Islamic Revolution er, which killed all 176 people on The 1979 Islamic Revolution be- board, mostly Iranians. Many are gan with broad-based protests that angry at the government’s mis- forced the Western-backed monar- leading statements immediately chy from power. However, in the after the tragedy, which it initially resulting chaos, hard-line follow- blamed on a technical problem. ers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomei- Iranians also suffer from an eco- ni moved to sideline left-wing and Growing frustration. Iranians chant slogans and hold a placard reading in Farsi “Your mistake was nomic crisis exacerbated by severe moderate opposition groups, forc- unintentional, your lie was intentional” during a protest outside Tehran’s Amir Kabir University, sanctions imposed by US President ing many Iranians into prison or January 11. (AFP) Donald Trump after he withdrew exile and establishing a firm foun- from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with dation for clerical rule. Iran sup- world powers. pressed a rebellion from among its The hardliners prevailed and the arrest and silenced in the largely In the 18 months since the United Kurdish minority in a years-long resulting crackdown set back re- state-run media. States restored sanctions, Iran has military campaign. In 1988, at the form efforts for a decade. US President Barack Obama seen waves of sporadic, leaderless Since withdrawing from close of the disastrous Iran-Iraq came under criticism for not offer- protests initially focused on eco- the 2015 nuclear war, Iran is believed to have ex- The Green Movement ing a full-throated endorsement of nomic grievances and perceived agreement between Iran ecuted thousands of political pris- The largest and most sustained the protests but it’s unclear if that corruption among the clerical elite and world powers, Trump oners, something authorities have protests since the Islamic Revo- would have made a difference and and the IRGC. Each time, the pro- has imposed “maximum” yet to publicly acknowledge. lution erupted in the summer of it might have fed into hardliners’ tests rapidly escalated into chants sanctions on Iran. 2009, after the reformist opposi- allegations that the protests were against Iranian Supreme Leader Student uprising tion disputed the re-election of part of a Western plot. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and calls Trump has encouraged the pro- The closure of a reformist news- hard-line President Mahmoud for the end of clerical rule. tests, even as he has embraced oth- paper in 1999 ignited a week of Ahmadinejad. Millions of Iranians Economic protests Protests have often turned vio- er autocrats who smother dissent. student protests. On July 9, secu- took part in months of protests Since withdrawing from the lent and security forces responded His administration hopes that the rity forces and hard-line vigilantes in major cities. Green Movement 2015 nuclear agreement between with deadly force. In the most re- demonstrations, along with crip- stormed a student dormitory at leaders did not call for the over- Iran and world powers, Trump has cent and deadly wave of protests, pling US sanctions, will bring about Tehran University. At least three throw of the system but for the re- imposed “maximum” sanctions in November, authorities closed a fundamental change in a long- people were killed and 1,200 ar- versal of the allegedly rigged elec- on Iran that he says are aimed at access to the internet for several time adversary. rested in the unrest, which spread tion, greater social freedoms and countering its nuclear programme days, making it difficult to discern However, large numbers of Irani- to other cities. The protests un- the reining in of the security forces. and its support for armed groups the scale of the protests and the re- ans support the clerically led gov- folded amid a power struggle be- Authorities responded with a across the region. The sanctions, sulting crackdown. ernment, as seen by the massive tween Iranian President Moham- massive crackdown. The IRGC and including those targeting the vital Amnesty International estimated turnout for the funeral of Major- mad Khatami, a popular reformist, its volunteer force, the Basij mili- oil industry, have eviscerated Iran’s that more than 300 people were General Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s and hardliners who dominated the tia, fired on protesters and carried economy, wiping away many peo- killed top general, who was killed in a Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps out a wave of arrests. Opposition ple’s life savings and fuelling high US air strike in Baghdad. Even crit- (IRGC) and the security apparatus. leaders were placed under house unemployment. (The Associated Press.) Viewpoint Isolated and detached from reality, Khamenei is no Gorbachev

ncreasingly isolated and Commenting on the Guardian detached from reality, Iranian Council’s disqualification of can- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei didates for the February 21 parlia- Ali Alfoneh is under constant attack. mentary election, Rohani said: “The In the streets of unprivileged people want diversity. Let all the southern Tehran, protesters groups and parties to participate in Ishout unimaginable profanities the elections… One can’t administer against him when demanding bread. the country with just one political On university campuses, students faction. The country belongs to all repeat the same profanities against [Iranians].” him while demanding freedom or Khamenei, however, is no Mikhail even when protesting against the Gorbachev and the Guardian Council Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ has dismissed Rohani’s criticism downing of the Ukrainian airliner. of widespread disqualification of In affluent north Tehran, Faezeh parliamentary candidates as an Rafsanjani, a former parliamentar- “anti-national move.” ian and daughter of his late friend If anything, mention of Gor- former President Ali Akbar Hashemi bachev’s reforms is likely to terrorise Rafsanjani, urged Khamenei to Khamenei, who has frequently resign. Iranian President Hassan referred to late Soviet-era reforms Rohani began criticising Khamenei as the underlying reason behind the Rearguard battles. Hardline protesters hold up posters of General in all but name. collapse of the Soviet Union. Qassem Soleimani and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a demons- How did Khamenei get here and By this analysis, under severe tration in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, January 12. (AP) what are his options? economic pressure from collapsing Khamenei has only himself oil prices and incapable of obtaining to blame for the misery he finds would have been above criticism to- mal cost to the people and society… foreign loans, Gorbachev started a himself in. Khamenei’s predecessor, day but because of Khamenei’s med- changes resembling what Mikhail political and economic liberalisation Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, dling in all affairs of the state, the Gorbachev did when he understood process that weakened state control the founder of the Islamic Republic, Iranian public is holding him person- the system was being annihilated.” over society and accelerated public generally abstained from meddling ally responsible for the failures and She specifically called for Khame- demands for more reforms. in day-to-day affairs of the state but shortcomings of the regime. nei’s resignation as leader: “We Unwilling or incapable of deliver- always took political responsibil- Even more remarkably, the ruling have seen the result of 30 years rule ing such reforms, the Soviet system ity for government decisions, even elites of the regime, anticipating [of Khamenei]… Now there is need collapsed. The circumstances in when he personally disagreed with Khamenei’s death or political de- for a change. Circumstances have which the Islamic Republic finds the policies. mise, are gradually distancing them- changed and we must be up to date itself in are not very different but, Khamenei meddles in the most selves from Khamenei to salvage but we are still insisting on policies with this analysis of the Soviet col- minor affairs of the state, takes all their own life and career. of past eras, which were wrong in lapse, Khamenei is likely to use force the credit for successes but always Take Faezeh Rafsanjani. On the past!” rather than reforms to stabilise the Khamenei is likely to blames others whenever something January 13, she distributed an audio At a cabinet meeting January 15, regime. use force rather than goes wrong. file online in which she directly ad- Rohani did not call for Khamenei’s Had Khamenei pursued his prede- dressed Khamenei: “Mr Khamenei, resignation but demanded changes Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at the reforms to stabilise cessor’s policy of strategic leadership you are the only person capable of that, in practice, would weaken the Arab Gulf States Institute in Wash- the regime. rather than micromanagement, he bringing about changes with mini- position of the leader. ington. 18 January 19, 2020 Viewpoint East West Trump’s NATOME initiative remains a blur

US President Donald Trump bears the challenges in the Middle East, some responsibility for the down- North Africa and Sahel region, ing of the Ukrainian jetliner, a which are often of a social, political Francis Ghilès disaster that cost 57 Canadian lives. and economic nature. He and some European leaders There is no agreement among seem to share the view that the allies on what is happening in the he risk of all-out war be- assassination of Iranian Major- Middle East or Libya, let alone the tween the United States General Qassem Soleimani, the Sahel. In the latter two, the situ- and Iran has prompted ruthless commander of the Islamic ation is deteriorating and NATO reactions from Euro- Revolutionary Guard Corps’ al- leaders have not forgotten how pean leaders, NATO and Quds Force, gave Iran an excuse to they were dragged into a war in Middle East rulers who abandon diplomacy. Libya in 2011: leading Western Tare no friends of Iran. All sought to The United Kingdom, France actors there decided to stay “until lessen tensions and mistakes, such and Germany triggered a dispute the job was done” without defining as Iran’s downing of the Ukrainian mechanism in the 2015 nuclear what the job was. passenger jet in Tehran. agreement with Iran, taking Until 1980, the hierarchy of inter- Particularly noteworthy was the their most robust response yet to ests that shaped US foreign policy reaction of senior Israeli officials Tehran’s declaration that it would privileged Europe and East Asia. who have backed the United States’ no longer abide by the uranium- As that singular critic of US foreign aggressive courtship of Saudi enrichment limits set in the accord. policy historian Andrew Bacevich Arabia and confrontation with Iran. Those who know Iran are divided points out, from 1940 to 1990, They are concerned about what as to whether this measure was “there was a certain cohesion… you they see as American bellicosity worth taking. could say there was a strategy. If and myopia and a reluctance to Robert Malley, president of you wanted to reduce that strategy be seen as encouraging a US-Iran International Crisis Group, said to a single word, the word would be military confrontation. the decision was a “mistake” ‘containment.’ The Middle East was Amos Harel’s article last June in that could have the “unintended peripheral.” Haaretz headlined “Oman Attack: consequence” of strengthening Former US President Jimmy Why Israel remains mum as ac- hardliners in Iran who would be Carter’s response to the hostage cri- cusations against Iran abound” was happy to tear up the deal. Mal- sis in Iran and the Soviet invasion prompted by a seasoned observer ley, who helped to negotiate the of Afghanistan changed that and trying to consider the long-term nuclear deal, argues that the more began the process that vaulted the regional effects of war between the the Europeans “go down that road, Middle East to the top of US foreign United States and Iran. This change the more they risk losing Iran and Uncharted territory. US President Donald Trump speaks during policy interests. of heart, from an Israeli, should the more they risk pushing Iran in the NATO summit in Watford, England, last December. (AP) By 9/11, Bacevich, a former US be considered a warning that US a completely different direction.” Marine Corps officer and now a policy, in his view, was spinning Once the clock starts ticking, in professor at Boston College, con- out of control. other words, there is no going back. terrorism but remains convinced Asking Europeans to send troops cluded: “The change gets expressed European and Canadian leaders, Trump seemingly believes that that “the best way is to enable local to fight in Iraq, where NATO has above all and most regrettably in whatever their exact feelings about NATO should become NATOME — forces to fight terrorism them- never had a combat mission, would the reorientation of the US mili- Iran, share such a sense of forebod- North Atlantic Treaty Organisation selves.” be very contentious. The French tary.” ing. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Middle East. As so often happens Trump is yet to give details of are fully stretched by their commit- Before 1980, US foreign policy Trudeau has questioned whether with a president who contradicts what he meant when he said he ments in Africa’s Sahel region and was practical. Thereafter, it mor- himself and his senior officials, would ask NATO “to become much are not being helped by sugges- phed into mission creep with the no one is sure what this remark more involved in the Middle East tions the United States might pull disastrous consequences that have means. process.” What that last expression out of that part of Africa where its cost trillions of dollars and millions NATO Secretary-General Jens means is anybody’s guess, although reconnaissance activities are vital of lives. European leaders and the Trump is yet to give Stoltenberg was quick to react it could include expanding the to French military operations. NATO secretary-general seem to details of what he by warning that the alliance was 430-person training mission for Germany would never agree and share that analysis. They are trying meant when he said unlikely to deploy extra combat Iraqi forces, which was suspended British Prime Minister Boris John- to be practical and restore a sense troops to the Middle East, set- because of the Iran crisis. Another son has appeared more attuned of purpose to the policy of the West he would ask NATO ting up a potential clash over potential move would be a rebadg- to German and French caution in the Middle East. “to become much US demands that NATO and the ing to put some training activi- than US bombast. They are well Europeans do more in the region. ties of the international coalition appraised of the fact that NATO, Francis Ghilès is an associate more involved in the He was happy to see NATO step against the Islamic State under with its tool as a defence alliance, fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Middle East process.” up its efforts to fight international NATO command. is not well-equipped to deal with International Affairs. Viewpoint France’s flawed strategy breeds security threats in the Sahel

threat to French interests. and that the Malian security forces as the inter-Malian agreements, that will set a map for a way out Former French President Fran- have “reached their limits despite including those signed in Algiers of this quagmire or the sending of cois Hollande, who applauded the international support.” and Bamako in 2015 after negotia- 220 additional soldiers to Mali that Majed Nehme NATO-led intervention in Libya, In a report published before the tions between the Malian central will change the situation. did not initially lift a finger when recent G5 summit in Pau, France, government and the Coordination French Minister of Foreign terrorist groups, joined by Tuareg the International Crisis Group of the Movements of Azawad, are Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian has ine years following armed groups, seized the Azawad went further, saying the real threat not implemented, the security pretended to not understand why the breakup of Libya, region in northern Mali. to security and stability in the re- threat in the region remains real. the Africans have turned against the Sahel region, It wasn’t until Islamist groups, gion “is not only the international French President Emmanuel France. “I note this with sadness an immense strip which had full control of Azawad, jihadism carried by transnational Macron, after his election in May and a little revolt,” he said, “when of nearly 3 million pushed towards Bamako in terrorist groups but a wave of 2017, promised to do everything to we know the strength of our sq.km separating January 2013, after defeating the insurgencies against the (local) resuscitate the agreements. How- commitment, our 41 dead service- Nthe Sahara from West Africa, is in Malian Army, that the French gov- states.” ever this was just wishful think- men and that this was done at the turmoil. ernment intervened militarily. The The Americans are strongly ing. Given his less than diplomatic request of the political authorities Five Sahel countries — Burkina objective was to stop the rebels’ tempted to withdraw from the reaction to the election of Algeria’s of the Sahel.” Faso, Chad, , Mali and advance and, as part of Operation region and close their surveillance new president, Abdelmadjid Teb- Le Drian, who was using the Niger — continue to be affected by Serval, to take back rebel-held ter- base in Niger, itself on its way to boune in December, it is unlikely same arguments as his boss, over- the Libyan tragedy. ritories. collapse. that the Algerian and French lead- looked the roots of African anger, From Libya, left to itself and to Operation Barkhane, which took Admittedly, the French military ers would meet any time soon. namely repeated French military Islamist militias funded by over from Operation Serval on Au- is not the only party responsible An oddity of its Sahel coun- interventions in Africa to rescue and armed by the Islamist Sudan gust 1, 2014, is made up of 4,500 for this horrible chain of events. terterrorism strategy is France’s not their countries, but regimes in of Omar al-Bashir and, later, by men, essentially French, a force There are a multitude of forces stubborn desire to exclude Algeria the pay of France. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey, deemed by analysts insufficient that were to help implement the as a partner in ending the crisis in Africans have not yet digested chaos has spread throughout the to complete pacification of the intervention strategy in the region. the Sahel despite Algeria hosting the French military intervention Sahel, a region hitherto considered Sahel and the reconstruction of its Operation Barkhane is supported the headquarters of the Council of in Libya because they have not under ​French influence. The fall fragile states. by the European Training Mission the Chiefs of Staff of the Joint Op- digested the use of armed force to of this buffer zone between the This led France to propose to its of the Malian Army, established in erational Army Staffs Committee, dislodge former Ivorian President Maghreb and sub-Saharan Africa European partners the creation of 2013. which includes Algeria, Mali, Laurent Gbagbo. They are quite into the hands of terrorist, mafia Takuba, which would deploy spe- It is part of the European Un- Mauritania and Niger. angry at the meagre results of and ethnic groups posed a direct cial forces to local armies (notably ion’s comprehensive approach to Misunderstood by its European these interventions. The promised Malian) to help them counter ji- strengthening security in Mali and and US partners, eyed with suspi- security is yet to materialise and hadism. This project did not really the Sahel. It involves a force of cion by large parts of the African the promised fruits of sustainable wow France’s European partners. approximately 600 soldiers from public and severely judged for development are slow to mature. Only Estonia, already present in around 20 EU members. To this its meagre results on the ground, It will take more than a G5 sum- Paris is overlooking Barkhane, Belgium and the Czech force must be added the forces the French strategy in the Sahel mit to meet the challenges. There the roots of African Republic responded positively, of the UN mission in Mali known should be readjusted to cope with is imminent danger and only the each offering almost symbolic as MINUSMA created in 2013 and new hotbeds of tension that have rehabilitation of sovereign, rep- anger, namely the participation. composed of, as of last October, moved from northern Mali to the resentative and efficient African repeated French Germany has refused France’s 13,289 military personnel and Triangle of Death on the border states is likely to drain the terrorist military interventions invitation to fight Islamists in Mali 1,920 police. There were 1,421 between Mali, Niger and Burkina cesspool. because the Germans do not share civilians serving with the force as Faso, also known as the Chadian in Africa to rescue, not France’s approach or its manage- of May 2018. inferno. Majed Nehme is a Syrian-French their countries, but ment of the situation. The German Considerable work has been There is a risk this blaze might journalist in Paris. Ministry of Defence estimated that done, if only in fighting jihadist spread to West Africa and Cote regimes in the pay of “the operational value of the G5 organisations and armed groups d’Ivoire. It won’t be the cryptic Full version of this article appears on France. Sahel Joint Force is currently low” in northern Mali. However, as long declarations of the Pau summit www.thearabweekly.com January 19, 2020 19 Iraq US East West Could Russia move to counterbalance the US in Iraq?

Sabahat Khan information is available, Iraq re- ceived $3.7 billion in economic and military assistance from the United Dubai States. With more than $90 billion in earn- 020 began dramatically in the ings from oil exports last year, Iraq is Middle East, as a US drone no Afghanistan and could survive strike killed Major-General without American financial assis- 2Qassem Soleimani, head of tance. US political support for Iraq Iran’s al-Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi more broadly is a different matter al-Muhandis, the head of closely and the United States has said it could aligned Al-Hashed al-Shaabi. sanction Iraq if relations between the As Washington demonstrated its two sides soured and Baghdad evict- growing intent to resolve its chal- ed the US military from the country. lenges with Iran, Iraq’s parliament In 2018, Iraq-US trade stood at passed a resolution calling for for- $13.2 billion, almost $12 billion of eign troops to leave the country — a which was accounted for by Iraqi significant move directed at the US crude oil exports. The US State De- military. partment reportedly threatened to At the same time, reports surfaced shut down the Iraqi government’s that Russia was intensifying efforts account at the Federal Reserve Bank to sell the S-300 or S-400 air defence of New York, which would have seri- system to Iraq. The S-300 and S-400 ous economic ramifications for the are highly capable systems that can country’s finances. The Counter- destroy aircraft, drones and missiles ing America’s Adversaries Through at altitudes of 30km. Sanctions Act provides one of a num- Acquiring the technology would ber of options the White House has offer Iraq protection from missile at its disposal to penalise Iraq for any and rocket attacks and effectively re- major purchases of Russian military move freedom of action for any air- hardware. craft in its airspace without consent. The Iraqi parliament’s request for Coming to Baghdad? S-400 missile air defence systems in central Moscow, Russia. (Reuters) The S-400 would mean missions, the withdrawal of US troops has not such as the drone strike that killed been taken seriously by the Trump Soleimani, would become extremely administration. Many in the United lines and Iraqi Kurdistan’s apparent egaz and Rosneft all expanding their the stakes are so high and trust levels difficult to coordinate and execute. States and Iraq questioned the legal desire for statehood. footprints. so low — creating new political op- Moscow is on standby to take any standing of a parliamentary resolu- It is in that context that a new Russia has signed agreements to portunities for Russia. opportunity in the unfolding scenar- tion and whether it was sufficient to wave of Iraqi nationalism emerged expand ties with Iraq in electricity American unilateralism in the io to consolidate its growing regional override a strategic bilateral treaty that seeks to make Baghdad more generation, agriculture and trans- Middle East context has its draw- clout and importance. Its S-series air between the two countries. Others independent from foreign influence portation and, last year, inaugurated backs because so many issues are defence systems, although designed questioned the mandate of an outgo- and agendas, allowing it to chart its a command centre in Baghdad under interlinked. Ultimately, Iraq may as a defensive weapon, could prove ing prime minister and government destiny and future by itself. It is a an intelligence-sharing agreement choose against expelling US troops if to be its secret weapon to make in- rocked by widespread protests to growing Iraqi sentiment that would that includes Iran and Syria. that would mean an end to bilateral roads into what are supposed to be make such decisions. appear to support deeper engage- Washington appears to be regain- security cooperation and imposition American spheres of influence. The United States remains the sin- ment with Moscow. ing strategic momentum vis-a-vis of economic sanctions but could well The United States previously acted gle most important partner for Iraq Russia has demonstrated a grow- Iran, whereas the latter appears in- be expected to strengthen engage- to ensure Iraq did not purchase the but its large Shia population and long ing intent to position itself in the creasingly isolated against a multi- ment with Moscow at the same time. S-300, although the Iraqi armed forc- border with Iran create a complex Middle East. Its military intervention pronged strategy designed to return When the S-300 or S-400 be- es operate Russia-made Mi-35 and political scenario for Iraq in the con- in Syria and work in Iraq are two ex- it to the negotiation table. comes a feature of that engagement Mi-28NA attack helicopters, Su-25 text of the Iran-US rivalry. Exhausted amples. Fortunately, international efforts is a development that will be closely aircraft and T-90 tanks. by years of war and civil strife since Iraq-Russia trade has grown rap- to avoid an Iran-US military conflict watched. The invasion of Iraq and subse- the US-led invasion in 2003 to topple idly to nearly $2 billion and Russian have proven successful but Baghdad quent military missions have cost the Saddam Hussein regime, another investments in Iraq total more than appears to have little appetite to be a Sabahat Khan maintains a hundreds of billions of dollars, a bill major conflict for Iraq could well $10 billion, mainly in oil and gas, battleground for Iranian-US rivalries. cross-disciplinary focus in interna- largely footed by the United States. mean its end as we know it consider- with major Russian players such as The threat of an Iran-US military con- tional security, defence policy and Since 2017, the latest year for which ing its long-standing sectarian fault Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, Soyuzneft- flict will continue to loom as long as strategic issues. Viewpoint US politicians divided on Soleimani killing along party lines distorting the truth. By and large, An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken Democrats argued that Soleimani after the Soleimani killing and the was indeed a “bad” person who Iranian retaliatory strikes stated Gregory had American blood on his hands that 56% of American respondents Aftandilian but added that Trump has not said they disapproved of Trump’s thought through the consequences handling of the situation with Iran. of his actions, which could lead to In addition, 52% of those asked he killing of Iranian al- war with Iran, and that such an ac- said the Soleimani killing made the Quds Force commander tion should have been vetted with United States “less safe.” Major-General Qas- Congress. To the question about the United sem Soleimani and the Presidential contender Bernie States and Iran becoming involved retaliatory strikes on Sanders, for example, acknowl- in a full-scale war, 73% of respond- Iraqi bases housing US edged that Soleimani was a “bad ents said they were “very con- Tservice members, injuring at least news guy” but contended that, cerned” or “somewhat concerned” 11, have become part of the politi- once the United States starts to about that possibility. cal debate in the United States. claim the right to assassinate of- Trump campaigned in 2016 While the fault lines are pre- ficials of a foreign government, about his desire to get the United dictable — those supporting US “then you’re unleashing interna- States out of endless wars in the President Donald Trump hailed tional anarchy.” Middle East and scored many the strike on Soleimani while those By practice in recent decades, points against his Republican opposed to him see it as a danger- the president is supposed to rivals and his Democratic oppo- ous provocation, done without consult with the so-called Gang Opposing views. US Representatives Pramila Jayapal (C) Ilhan nent, Hillary Clinton, for wanting congressional approval — polling of Eight in Congress on any major Omar (L) and Mark Pocan, at a news conference on the killing of to stay involved militarily in the indicates that most Americans are intelligence operation. Those Qassem Soleimani, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, January 8. (AP) region. Trump instinctively knew worried about a war with Iran. members include the Republican that most Americans were tired Not surprising, Trump used and Democratic leaders as well as of spending so much blood and the killing of Soleimani to show the chairmen and vice-chairmen Members of Congress, regardless Senate, a bipartisan and binding treasure in the Middle East. he is tough and resolute when it of the intelligence committees. of political party, understand that war powers resolution was intro- However, in his latest move to comes to protecting Americans. Trump did not do so and implied, the president must act unilaterally duced by Senators Tim Kaine, a show he is tough and resolute He has tried to show that his ac- if he had, Democrats would have and immediately when there is Democrat from Virginia, and Mike against Iran, he rekindled the tions were the “anti-Benghazi” — a leaked the operation to the media an imminent threat to the United Lee, a Republican from Utah. American people’s fears. Although reference to the 2012 incident in When members of the Trump States and US personnel abroad In a January 15 opinion article in the same poll showed that 43% of Libya in which the US ambassador administration did give a classified but, because the briefings they the Washington Post, the two sena- those asked said they approve of and three other Americans were briefing to the Gang of Eight — after received did not indicate an attack tors emphasised that “we should Trump’s handling of the Iran situ- killed by terrorists, for which the the operation — as well as to other was imminent, many, including not be at war with Iran unless Con- ation, that is not enough to carry Republicans have long accused the members of the US Senate, many some Republicans, charged that gress authorises it” and put their him to victory in November. Obama administration, without said they heard nothing concrete the president’s actions were wrong colleagues on notice that, if they Of course, if there are no further merit, of failing to go to their aid. about an imminent threat to the and unconstitutional. are unwilling to have this debate, strikes between the United States Trump has also used the Soleim- US Embassy in Baghdad as Trump The Democrat-led House of Rep- “how dare we order our troops to and Iran, his approval percentage ani killing as a cudgel against and his high-ranking officials had resentatives passed a non-binding courageously serve and risk all?” might rise but the volatility of the leading Democrats as well as those claimed. war powers resolution on January It is unclear if the Republican- situation makes that a very risky seeking the party’s nomination to The situation was further 9 that would force the president to controlled Senate will pass this proposition. oppose him in the 2020 presiden- muddled when Trump gave an seek consent from Congress before resolution because most Re- tial race. At a political rally January interview to Fox News, which is taking any new military action publicans in that chamber are in Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in 14 in Wisconsin, Trump charged supportive of the US president, in against Iran. lockstep with Trump. However, the the Pardee School of Global Studies that the Democrats are “outraged” which he claimed that Soleimani The vote went along party lines, resolutions in both the House and at Boston University and a former that he “took out a terrorist.” was plotting an attack on “four” US though three Republicans joined Senate reflect the misgivings of the US State Department Middle East Democrats accused Trump of embassies. the Democrat-led effort. In the American people. analyst. 20 January 19, 2020 Economy

Government, business leaders discuss Briefs ‘sustainable development’ in Abu Dhabi Iraq appoints new head of oil Caline Malek become more than a fashionable contracts office: word or noble concept, that it must become the dominant motive for na- ministry document Abu Dhabi tional and global actions to balance economic, social, environmental and Iraqi Oil Minister Thamir al- eads of state, senior govern- cultural needs of all communities. Ghadhban appointed a new head ment officials and business “Therefore, we must work com- for the ministry’s licensing and leaders convened in Abu prehensively to promote a culture of contracts office, which oversees oil H Dhabi for the largest sus- social responsibility that makes the contracts and negotiates energy tainability gathering in the Middle sustainable use of economic resourc- deals with international compa- East. es a guiding principle, not just for nies, a ministry document stated. From the United Arab Emirates’ Vi- research and policy-making but also Ali Maarij was named the new sion 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 for actual practice,” Sheikh Nahyan head of the licensing and contracts and the UN Sustainable Development said. “Today, in light of the disturb- office, the document, signed by Goals (SDGs), Abu Dhabi Sustainabil- ing events we observe daily around Ghadhban, said. ity Week addressed global sustain- the globe, it has become supremely Maarij served as head of Iraq’s ability challenges and opportunities. urgent that we not only understand state-run Missan Oil Company “This summit is an important ex- but actively promote the bonds that until 2014 when he became a pression of the vision of the founder unite us.” member of the Iraqi parliament. of our nation, the late Sheikh Zayed, Indonesian President Joko Widodo In 2018, he was appointed as an who recognised opportunities to spoke of a need to work together to adviser at the Oil Ministry. initiate change,” said UAE Minis- address climate change and find al- ter of Tolerance Sheikh Nahyan bin ternative energy sources to meet the (Reuters) Mubarak al-Nahyan at the opening of world’s growing needs. He stressed the summit. the environmental challenges that “We are able to mobilise resources will define this century. Looking ahead. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of State and to bring change about and, most im- This creates challenges but also op- the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group CEO, speaks portant, to convince others to share portunities to clean the air, to reduce during the opening ceremony of the World Future Energy Summit his vision for the future. The UAE’s the noise and to build new cities for in Abu Dhabi. (Reuters) leadership has sustained and extend- new generations,” he said. “That is ed Sheikh Zayed’s vision by creating why we are undertaking one of the Saudi Arabia leads a national strategy for the future, biggest initiatives in our country’s future of our planet. Climate change and investing in advanced energy manifested in effective plans for a history, building a new capital city is equally a threat to the UAE, as eve- through initiatives such as the Mo- in women’s legal knowledge-based economy, human from the ground up. This new capital rywhere else on the planet, and as a hammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum resource development, regional and city will be the showcase of the most globally engaged and responsible na- Solar Park, Masdar and renewable gains at work, global engagement and economic advanced technologies and way of tion, we have to be part of the solu- energy projects totalling almost 12 gi- and environmental sustainability.” living.” tion.” gawatts locally and across more than World Bank says The Emirates designated 2020 as a Climate change was largely de- UAE Minister of State Sultan Al 30 countries. year for planning for the next 50 years scribed by summit participants as Jaber, who is also chairman of Mas- Nationally, it has grown its renewa- Women’s rights at work have of development. Sheikh Nahyan said one of the most threatening issues. dar, outlined the Emirates’ efforts in ble energy portfolio more than 400% improved globally since 2017, the the challenges of sustainability can- With Earth facing a crisis caused by harnessing technologies to drive sus- and is on track to double it in the next World Bank said, with 40 countries not be confined within the country’s changes in world climate, global ac- tainability. 10 years. introducing rules such as longer borders, rather, they require interna- tion on climate and sustainability “In the first two decades of the “To complement our clean energy paid maternity leave and protec- tional dialogue and cooperation. were said to be critical priorities. 21st century, we saw life expectancy portfolio, this year, we will become tion from violence on the job. “Our vision of the future closely “As businesses, governments, aca- reach new heights, global child mor- the first country in the region to de- Saudi Arabia made the biggest aligns with the global quest to reach demia and civil society, we need to tality cut in half and the middle class liver safe, commercial and peaceful improvement globally, enacting the UN SDGs by 2030,” he said. “We reflect on what more we can do and more than double,” he said in his nuclear power,” Jaber said. “In short, reforms that affected women’s share with all nations of the world, what we must be doing to address the opening address. “However, while the UAE not only talks the talk but mobility, sexual harassment and the conviction that reaching those omnipresent risk of climate change,” human progress is accelerating, an- walks the walk when it comes to de- retirement age, the World Bank goals will require the efforts of all lo- said Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, other key challenge is emerging: how livering sustainable, clean energy. We said, although the Middle East and cal and global leaders, [those] from managing director of Mubadala In- to produce the energy and resources do this because it is right and it makes North Africa remained the region faith, government, business commu- vestment Corporation. the world needs while protecting the perfect economic sense.” most in need of legal reforms. nities and the media.” “The actions we take today will not world we all share together.” “There’s reason for optimism,” He said the United Arab Emirates only define the legacy we leave for The United Arab Emirates has Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly World Bank President David had learnt that sustainability must the future generations but the very made great strides in promoting contributor in Abu Dhabi. Malpass wrote in a foreword to the report, which assessed laws Viewpoint and regulations in 190 countries af- fecting women at work, including restrictions on jobs and permitted Saudi Aramco triggers greenshoe purchasing option working hours. (Reuters)

the world’s largest IPO by surpass- and armed conflict may materially the lowest share price recorded ing the $25 billion IPO recorded by and adversely affect the company since the December 11 listing. Chinese e-commerce firm Alibaba and the market price of the shares.” Following the Iranian govern- Jareer Elass in 2014. In exercising its greenshoe The prospectus highlighted the ment’s January 8 ballistic missile option, Saudi Aramco has sold 3.45 September 14 drone and missile at- attacks on Al Asad Airbase and a billion shares, bumping the com- tacks believed to have been carried facility in Erbil, both in Iraq, the audi Aramco has bested pany’s public stake to 1.725% and out by Iran on Aramco’s Abqaiq share price surprisingly closed up its own world record, set raising its IPO earnings to $29.4 processing plant and the nearby 2.3% at $9.33 the following day. Indonesia, UAE in December, in initial billion. Khurais field that temporarily That increase may well have been public offering earnings, Saudi Aramco said: “The 450 halved the kingdom’s oil produc- the exchange’s relief that Saudi sign $23 billion providing additional million shares subject to the tion as well as drone attacks on the Aramco was not a target of Iran’s shares to investors to overallotment option had been East-West pipeline and Shaybah military action and that Tehran was investment deals Sboost the Saudi state oil and gas gi- allocated to investors during the field in May and August, respec- not likely to take any further short- ant’s profits from its limited public book-building process and, there- tively. term retaliatory steps that would Indonesia and the United Arab sale by $3.8 billion. fore, no additional shares are being In its debut on the Saudi do- impact the state oil firm. Emirates struck nearly $23 billion As impressive as the newly offered into the market today.” mestic exchange, Saudi Aramco’s The share price has since trended in business deals, including agree- achieved initial public offering Since debuting on the Tadawul shares performed exceptionally below $9.33. Saudi Aramco’s valua- ments in the energy sector and on (IPO) earnings record of $29.4 bil- on December 11, Saudi Aramco well, with the share price quickly tion is approximately $1.87 trillion. infrastructure projects. lion is, Saudi Aramco shares trad- shares have remained firmly above rising 10% above the IPO price Though Riyadh has sought to The investments will be made ing on the domestic stock exchange the IPO price but it has been a and hitting the daily limit, closing defuse tensions with Iran, the king- through an Indonesian sovereign are experiencing price volatility in rocky month for the Saudi energy at $9.38. That first day of trading dom and Saudi Aramco could be wealth fund set to involve Japan’s response to geopolitical tensions, a conglomerate, with heightened pushed the company’s valuation targets for future aggression from Softbank and US International De- factor the Saudi oil firm cautioned tensions between Iran and the up to $1.88 trillion from $1.7 tril- Tehran. velopment Finance Corporation, investors about ahead of its IPO. Trump administration prompting lion. In addition to Saudi energy Indonesian officials said. Saudi Aramco reported to the the share price to take a sharp hit Saudi Aramco flirted with a $2 security vulnerability reflected in The figure includes nearly a Saudi domestic exchange, the and the company’s valuation to trillion valuation on December 12 attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure dozen deals signed after a meet- Tadawul, on January 12 that it had tumble. when the share price hit $10.32 in recent years, Iran is believed to ing between Indonesian President triggered its “greenshoe” purchas- In its IPO prospectus released in before closing at $9.81, giving the have been behind the malware at- Joko Widodo and Abu Dhabi ing option, with its stabilising November, Saudi Aramco pulled no company a market valuation of tack on Saudi Aramco headquarters Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed manager Goldman Sachs selling punches in warning about geopo- $1.96 trillion. in August 2012 that forced the com- bin Zayed al-Nahyan in Abu Dhabi, an additional 450 million shares to litical factors potentially affecting The company’s shares subse- pany to replace 30,000 computers. Widodo said on social media. investors. the company’s operations and quently peaked December 16, Asked January 13 whether the About $12.6 billion was linked to The IPO’s greenshoe, or overal- share price. closing at $10.13 but trended lower Saudi government had done all it an agreement between Indonesia’s lotment option, enabled Saudi Ara- Under the prospectus’s risk fac- in the following weeks in what was could to guarantee the safety of its state energy firm Pertamina and mco to sell up to 15% of additional tors section, Saudi Aramco stated: deemed a market correction of an oil operations after the strikes in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company shares within the first 30 days of “Political and social instability overvalued stock. Iraq, Saudi Oil Minister Prince Ab- to develop a petrochemical plant trading based on investor demand and unrest and actual or potential The US assassination of Iran’s dulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz in West Java, the Indonesian and because the share price had armed conflicts in the MENA (Mid- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said: “We have taken every precau- Foreign Ministry said. Other remained above the IPO price of 32 dle East and North Africa) region Major-General Qassem Soleimani tion that can be taken.” investments include deals in ports, riyals ($8.53). and other areas may affect the on January 3 led to Saudi Aramco renewable energy and agriculture. Selling 1.5% of the company on company’s results of operations share prices sliding 1.7% on January Jareer Elass reports from December 5, Saudi Aramco netted and financial position.” The state 5, the first day of trading after the Washington on energy issues for (Agence France-Presse) $25.6 billion, securing the title of firm emphasised that: “Terrorism killing, to $9.21 a share. That was The Arab Weekly January 19, 2020 21 Economy

Tunisia’s tourism sector shows signs of recovery

Riadh Bouazza

Tunis

unisia exceeded goals re- garding the number of tour- ists visiting the country in T2019. Figures from the tour- ism sector gave a touch of optimism in an otherwise morose economy. Official government data stated that tourism-related revenues in 2019 exceeded expectations despite internal political fluctuations that overshadow the Tunisian economy. Tunisian Tourism Minister Rene Trabelsi said the number of tourists increased 13.6% in 2019 to 9.5 mil- lion, a record level. Tunisian authorities had set a goal of 9 million tourists for 2019 after 8.3 million people visited the country in 2018. It appears a wide promotional campaign that targeted traditional markets for Tunisian tourism, such as France, Britain and Germany, was successful. Tourism professionals said Tuni- sia can expect an even larger num- ber of tourists in 2020, given that overall conditions are stabilising because of a long-term strategy of supporting tourism through infra- structure improvements promoting Tunisia in non-traditional markets. During a signing ceremony of an Welcome trend. A tourist tries on a Tunisian “chechia” (traditional fez) in a shop at a bazaar in the Medina (old town) of Tunis, last June. (AFP) agreement between the Ministry of Tourism and the National Syndicate of Tunisian Journalists January 9, of the growth in tourism. because it provides the second-larg- European countries and Algeria. mism in tourism is Tunisia’s joining Trabelsi said the sector’s revenues If the tourism sector in Tunisia est percentage, after the agricultural The government is also pushing the Open Skies Agreement. Tunisian rose substantially last year. Tour- continues its recovery, it is because sector, of employment; 400,000 winter tourism in Tunisia. Officials international airports, except for ism revenues in 2019 totalled about of improvements in the security sit- people work in tourism in Tunisia. said they hoped the $47.2 million Tunis-Carthage International Air- $2 billion. The sector generated uation in the country and to reforms Tunisia intensified efforts to -re Anantara Resort in Tozeur, in south- port, will be open to low-cost Euro- $1.5 billion in 2019. implemented by the government. vive tourism with a strategy aimed ern Tunisia, will become a high- pean airlines. The capital’s airport Experts said the data indicate Tu- Authorities said they hope the re- at attracting more than 10 million profile establishment. The resort is will remain outside the agreement nisia’s strong return to the global covery of the sector will kick-start tourists in 2020. expected to be an attractive destina- for five years to give the country’s tourism map after years of inactivity other sectors of the economy. tion for Gulf tourists, in particular, national air carrier, Tunisair, time to because of terrorist attacks in 2015. Trabelsi has relied on partner- but also for people from other parts restructure and prepare for the new One of the consequences of the ships with various travel agencies Tunisian Minister of of the world eager to explore the Tu- air-travel competition boom in the tourism sector has and hotels in hard currency. Tourism Rene Trabelsi said nisian desert. Economists said the agreement been a noticeable rise in Tunisia’s “We have agreed with all Tunisian the number of tourists The sector recovered significantly will lead to many more tourists. reserves of foreign currency, a glim- hotels and travel agencies to have increased 13.6% in 2019 to with the return of tourists from tra- However, their optimism was tem- mer of hope to alleviate the chronic them complete all reservations and 9.5 million. ditional markets for Tunisian tour- pered by fears that it would drive financial imbalances plaguing the transaction with foreign companies ism after many European countries Tunisair out of business. Tunisian country since the popular uprising in hard currency,” Trabelsi said, ex- Sector professionals confirmed had lifted warning against travel to authorities said they hope the agree- of January 2011. plaining that the strategy supports that tourism is going through a pe- Tunisia. ment will increase the number of Figures released by Tunisia’s Cen- the influx of hard currency into Tu- riod of intense activity unseen in The country, however, seeks to go travellers through the country’s air- tral Bank at the end of 2019 showed nisia. recent years. Desert resorts and ho- beyond its traditional markets and ports to 20 million passengers in the that the country’s foreign currency Tourism accounts for about 8% of tels overlooking the Mediterranean look to Chinese and Russian mar- next decade. reserves increased to $6.7 billion — Tunisia’s GDP and is one of the most reported a significant increase in the kets. 46% higher than in 2018 — because important sectors of the economy percentage of foreign arrivals from Another factor supporting opti- Riadh Bouazza is a Tunisian writer. Viewpoint Conflict expands in Eastern Mediterranean over gas riches

Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Lebanon to become part of the “The ships will continue to per- to European markets that Turkey territories. regional energy bonanza. form their duties,” declared Turkish opposes. Not content to watch from the Greek, Cypriot and Israeli leaders President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Lest there be any ambiguity about Geoffrey Aronson grandstands, Moscow, Washington, have advanced their burgeoning “Turkey will not let others crush its Turkey’s intention to up its game in Paris and Beijing are identifying and economic and security partnership and Turkish Cypriots’ interests.” the region, Ankara deployed Syrian exploiting opportunities presented by promoting the construction of Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi ac- proxy forces in Libya in support of by fast-paced energy and security a 1900km EastMed Pipeline, the knowledged concerns about the the internationally recognised Gov- hile the United developments. economic centrepiece of a dynamic increasingly militant environment ernment of National Accord (GNA). States plays Natural gas reserves of 9.8 trillion economic and security alliance in which energy exploration and Greece, France, Cyprus, Israel whack-a-mole cubic metres in the Levant Basin established to coordinate produc- transport take place. Speaking at and Egypt voiced unified opposi- in Iraq and the and the Nile Delta Basin — repre- tion, transport and defence of the a Rome conference, Descalzi said tion to the Turkey-Libya maritime Arab-Israeli con- senting 5% of global reserves — region’s gas reserves. he was not willing to drill wells “if deal. flict fades from have been discovered in the Eastern The action follows last year’s someone shows up with warships.” All elements for a new and Winternational and Arab view, a new Mediterranean. The race to identify establishment of the East Mediter- Gas exploration is not for the faint expanding cold war in the East- multinational contest is expanding and exploit these potential riches is ranean Gas Forum to coordinate of heart. One year ago, ExxonMo- ern Mediterranean are in place. in the Eastern Mediterranean. well under way. energy policies and establish a bil announced the discovery of an Mechanisms adopted by all players The cast of players includes On the last day of 2019, the taps regional gas market for export to estimated 5 trillion-8 trillion cubic have exacerbated rather than traditional Mediterranean rivals — were opened at Israel’s giant Levia- Europe. feet of gas off the coast of Cyprus. reduced regional tensions. Secu- NATO members Greece and Turkey than gas field. Turkey was pointedly excluded ExxonMobil Vice-President Tristan rity and economic alliances have — along with a host of newcom- “Today we made history,” pro- from that party. Aspray noted: “We’d be interested hardened rather than softened ers — Israel, Egypt, Cyprus and, claimed embattled Israeli Prime Ankara contests claims by Cyprus in other opportunities offshore Cy- opposing views and reduced rather most recently, Libya — joined by Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. “For and Greece, notably the awarding prus and indeed the whole Eastern than increased the prospects for an emerging cast of wannabes — many years I fought to get the gas of exploration licences to Total and Mediterranean.” reconciliation of Cyprus’s long- out of the ground, against fierce op- Eni. Duelling policies to exploit gas standing crisis. Rivals increasingly position from our political rivals.” The generational battle over reserves have fortified conflicting talk past each other rather than to After satisfying the local mar- Cyprus has been complicated rather views of national and maritime each other. ket, Israel will export gas to Egypt, than eased by disputes over the security interests and prompted the Developments such as Turkey’s Natural gas reserves which has grandiose plans to division of the island country’s expansion of the arena of conflict to deal with the GNA suggest that the of 9.8 trillion cubic become a regional energy hub. reserves. Turkey has undertaken include Libya. arena for conflict, which was borne metres in the Levant This high-stakes economic partner- its own competing exploration Turkey has sought to leapfrog the out of the zero-sum competition ship increasingly defines security activities to secure the assets for reach of the EastMed coalition by for the gas bonanza throughout the Basin and the Nile and economic ties that were once the Turkish Republic of Northern making a hotly contested politi- Eastern Mediterranean, has spread Delta Basin — defined by the dispute over the Cyprus. cal, energy and security agreement to include complex and wide-rang- Palestinian territories. For months it deployed explora- with Libya. The centrepiece of the ing security and defence issues that representing 5% of Just up the coast, the French tion vessels in contested waters agreement is a unilaterally staked- will make fixing Cyprus look like global reserves — have energy company Total is about to around Cyprus. Two Turkish drill- out claim to a wide section of the child’s play. been discovered in begin exploration drills in Block ships and two seismic survey ves- Mediterranean south of Rhodes 4, north-west of Beirut. By early sels are exploring for hydrocarbons and Crete running from Turkey to Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident the Eastern spring it should be clear whether inside Cyprus’s exclusive economic the Libyan coast, the purpose of scholar at the Middle East Institute Mediterranean. there are enough reserves to enable zone. which is to block any pipeline route in Washington. 22 January 19, 2020 Society Iraq Poverty, resentment of corruption among engines of continuing protests in Iraq

Haydar Indhar of its people lives in poverty and the youth unemployment rate stands at one-quarter, the World Bank said. Diwaniyah The government has been the largest employer by far for decades hants demanding regime but recently struggled to provide change have echoed across jobs for a growing number of gradu- Iraq for weeks but what first ates. Already, young people make C brought demonstrators onto up 60% of the population of 40 mil- the street was the paradoxical pov- lion, which is expected to grow an- erty of one of the world’s most oil- other 10 million more before 2030. rich countries. The future looks even bleaker Coupled with the resentment of given predictions that heavy crude dire living conditions is the distrust exports, which fund more than 90% of politicians whom they accuse of of Iraq’s state budget, will become failing to root out rampant corrup- less profitable as the world shifts to tion that denies them jobs and pub- other energy sources. lic services. Protesters blame the staggering In the southern protest hotspot of joblessness rates on a patronage Diwaniyah, one of the poorest agri- system that hands out work based cultural areas in the country, Umm on bribes, family connections or Salah has joined rallies every day party affiliation instead of merit. outside the provincial council. Muhannad Fadel, 30, dreamed of “I’ve suffered in my country, even a government post when he gradu- though it’s a rich country,” she said, ated years ago with a degree in carrying an Iraqi tricolour. physical education but his diploma The 57-year-old widow has been opened few doors for him. After a protesting every day since Octo- brief stint as a university lecturer, ber with her seven children, none Fadel sought other work but his of whom are employed. They walk monthly income didn’t rise above Twin woes. An Iraqi child peddler sells water bottles to people driving down a street in the northern 4km to reach the protest camp be- $100. Iraqi city of Mosul. (AFP) cause they cannot afford a taxi from “I started to drive a taxi but I was the worn-down informal shelter afraid some of my students would where they live. recognise me,” he said. “Then I “They’re corrupt and steal the October had hinted at the conflagra- days after Abdul-Mahdi stepped opened a little confectionery store people’s money to give to Iran and tion to come. down. Despite Iraq being OPEC’s on the ground floor of our home other parties,” Fadel said bitterly. In September, authorities began “Of course, that’s not enough,” and I make around 5,000 dinars ($3) Iraq is ranked the 12th most cor- second-largest crude demolishing unauthorised houses one young demonstrator in Bagh- a day.” rupt country in the world by Trans- in the shrine city of Karbala, in dad’s Tahrir Square said about producer, one-in-five of its Scraping together some savings, parency International. A recent gov- Basra in the south and in the cen- bringing down the head of govern- people lives in poverty. Fadel could marry but not buy a ernment investigation said more tral city of Kut. The settlements are ment. “We won’t leave our barri- house so his new wife moved in than $450 billion in public funds home to 3 million Iraqis, many of cades until the regime falls, until we “My husband died four years ago with his family. were lost to embezzlement, fake them the poorest of the poor. get jobs, water, electricity.” because we are poor and couldn’t “Our whole family together earns contracts or salaries for so-called That same month, a young man in Another protester, 45-year-old afford medical treatment in private $150 per month. How is that possi- ghost employees since 2003. Kut died after setting himself on fire Hussein Maneh, slammed the gov- clinics or hospitals abroad,” Umm ble in one of the countries with the “The deterioration of the eco- after authorities seized his mobile ernment for its years of failure. Salah said. most oil in the world?” he asked. nomic conditions of Iraqis is the kiosk. “Since 2003, they’ve done noth- Iraq suffers from an extremely di- For him and many protesters, main reason for protests, as 8 mil- “You need an economic policy ing but increased poverty, destroyed lapidated health-care system, with the root of the problem is a politi- lion Iraqis live under the poverty that makes use of resources based agriculture and industry, impover- hospitals severely under-equipped cal class more interested in earn- line,” said Moussa Khalaf, an eco- on scientific and economic facts, ished schools and hospitals, created and doctors often threatened on the ing money and paying homage to nomic history professor in Diwani- not on privileges or political gains,” confessionalism and stole our oil,” basis of political or tribal disputes. regional backers than in improv- yah. said Khalaf. he fumed. Despite Iraq being OPEC’s second- ing Iraqi infrastructure or people’s A series of flare-ups before the Protesters have clung on in the largest crude producer, one-in-five lives. major wave of protests erupted in streets and public squares even (Agence France-Presse) Tahrir Beach, a safe haven for protesters from Baghdad’s turmoil

Oumayma Omar had been set up by activists “with- protests in the country.” out the help of the government,” Wardi said Iraqi women have which he said was busy protecting been involved since the beginning Baghdad itself from the angry people. and participated in preparing the Tahrir Beach is on the eastern beach, which “was meant to be- t was a sight that Baghdad resi- bank of the Tigris and extends from come a safe place for interaction be- dents were discovering for the Al-Sink Bridge and Al-Jumhuriya tween and participation by young first time. On the opposite bank Bridge in Baghdad. people from both sexes.” I of the Tigris River from the Sami said the idea was to create He said Tahrir Beach was a mes- fortified area known as the Green a space for protesters to “unwind, sage to young people that they can Zone, where many government recuperate and re-energise away change their reality without relying institutions and sensitive centres from the tensions and confronta- on institutions or organisations. are located, is an area protesters tions of Tahrir Square.” He added, with a touch of pride, Protesters’ haven. Tahrir Beach on the banks of the Tigris in call “Tahrir Beach.” With all the “The same protesters who face that “no authority has any author- Baghdad. (Oumayma Omar) sports and artistic activities going daily tear gas and live bullets are ity over the beach. It belongs to the on there, it was as if the place was the ones who contributed to the people.” totally outside time. creation of this beach,” he said. Wardi said even if the govern- ate of the College of Administration feel that you’re a stranger and this, The beach borrowed its name “The message being that the goal ment planned to rehabilitate the and Economics, said: “I couldn’t in itself, is an achievement. We did from Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, of the revolution is rebuilding the beach, those plans “would have find any employment offer since I not experience this before because where, for more than 100 days now, country and giving hope to its citi- been dead and buried by the abhor- graduated. However, I found what I of all of the barriers planted by the protests have been concentrated. zens at a time when such things are rent administrative routine, cor- always wanted to do as I joined the political parties in the minds of Ira- During the political uncertainty absent from the minds of the coun- ruption and the ever-present quota young men of Tahrir Square. We’re qis in which they classified people and insecurity sweeping Iraq, Tah- try’s politicians.” system.” insisting on our demands for a bet- by their beliefs and their sects, sow- rir Beach has become a haven for The beach is reminiscent of sea ter life for us and for future genera- ing distrust and fear of the other.” protesters, a place where activ- resorts. There are plenty of umbrel- tions.” Haya Asim, 18, interrupted to say: ist Alaa Sami, 27, said: “Protesters las dotting the beach, volleyball The beach borrowed its “I have been in Tahrir Square “What disturbs them the most (as can restore themselves with hope and tennis courts, ping-pong tables name from Baghdad’s since the 25th of last October and I she pointed to the Green Zone on and energy to continue their fight and plenty of other games. Activ- Tahrir Square, where, for live in Jabal Uhud (the Turkish res- the other bank of the Tigris) is to see against corruption and the ruling ists said one of the motivations be- more than 100 days now, taurant). I rarely go to see my family us united and working together.” political class.” hind the encampment was to break protests have been now and they have been visiting me Asim said Tahrir Square has in- Sami, a graduate of the Faculty social and class barriers and give concentrated. from time to time in the square,” he spired many Iraqis and Tahrir Beach of Chemical Engineering and one impetus to the protests. said. is an integral part of the popular of those who helped turn the beach Activist Qaysar al-Wardi, 28, said He pointed out that the popu- He admitted that initiatives start- movement. She said that the young into a respite, said: “We can no Tahrir Beach brought together lar movement was sustained by ed by the activists have contributed people of Iraq are adamant about longer accept the miserable real- young Iraqis from various parts of individual efforts and self-financ- to perpetuating the momentum of perpetuating the popular move- ity where we live with corruption, Iraqi society. ing activities and initiatives that the protests. ment with initiatives such as Tahrir nepotism and sectarianism that He said the project can “show sprung up in Tahrir Square. Bazaars “I helped prepare Tahrir Beach, Beach until their demands are met. have killed everything beautiful in the world Iraqis can live with each and shops have been set up in the which we consider to be the space our country.” other, rich and poor committed to- square to sustain the movement. where we can spend some quality Oumayma Omar, who reports from Pointing to the sports grounds gether to the same goal. This is the There are even a theatre and a cin- time with the rest of the youth from Baghdad, is a contributor to the and umbrellas on the half-kilome- same spirit that permeates all of our ema house set up in Tahrir Square. Baghdad,” he said. Culture and Society section of tre stretch of beach, Sami said it actions since the beginning of the Mustafa Abdullah, 26, a gradu- “People here do not make you The Arab Weekly. January 19, 2020 23 Culture Books Imperial vision and Ikhwan ‘Sophia: Or the links drive Turkey’s Erdogan Beginning of All Tales’ by Rafik Schami Gareth Smyth Ataturk but peasants arriving from [2016] attempted coup [in Turkey, Anatolia had older beliefs. The backed by part of the military], in 1950s brought electoral contests which he almost was assassinated, istorian Soner between “hard” and “soft” secu- spoke to his worst fears,” Cagaptay Cagaptay takes larisms and then street battles said. the long view between left and right but the The commitment to Ikhwan, about Turkish National Outlook group quietly Cagaptay said, hamstrung Er- President Recep imbibed Islamist ideas echoing dogan’s approach to Syria after Tayyip Erdogan. Egypt’s Sayyid Qutb and Iran’s Ali 2012 when he began supporting “For over 200 Shariati. Islamist rebels. “Syria was a di- Hyears, Turkey followed trends Influenced by National Outlook, verse country with a large middle invented in the West and now Erdogan joined the Refah Party, class and many women in the it’s the opposite,” says Cagaptay. emerging in the 1980s but banned professional workforce and public “Other countries are following a in 1998. Erdogan became mayor of life,” he said. “Turkish diplomats trend invented in Turkey, this Istanbul in 1994 but was impris- do know Syria, and they know 21st-century populism.” oned for four months in 1999 for Ikhwan isn’t the only game in Rafik Schami Erdogan’s notions of making inciting religious hatred. Er- town, so my only explanation is receives much criticism from neigh- Turkey great and the domestic dogan’s Justice and Development that this is what Erdogan wanted Joud Mazahreh bours for saying: “I’m not a Muslim, polarisation he fosters between Party, formed in 2001, showed to do.” a Christian, a Druze or a Jew. Love is supporters and opponents have both flexibility and toughness. Something similar began in n his novel “Sophia: Or the my religion, do you understand?” parallels in Donald Trump’s Amer- Cagaptay points out that Libya, Cagaptay said, but mor- Beginning of All Tales,” The novelist notes that there was ica or Brexit Britain. In Erdogan’s Kasimpasa, near the docks, was phed into a complex proxy war. Syrian-German author Rafik a religious revival that emerged outlook and actions, Cagaptay known for bravado, with the word Turkey’s support for an Ikhwan Schami sheds light on Syrian because of the lack of security from detects imperial Ottoman themes, Kasimpasali used to describe faction became unprecedented society, politics and culture the state, driving people to cling to reflected in his new book “Erdog- street toughs with a sense of backing for Fayez al-Sarraj’s under Syrian President their beliefs. an’s Empire” and his 2017 “The honour. “A Kasimpasali Turk will Tripoli-based government with Bashar Assad’s government Sexism plays a significant part New Sultan,” which has a revised not shy away from humiliating his Turkey’s parliament agreeing to Iintertwining a forbidden love story of the novel. Women are seen as edition out soon. counterpart to undermine him,” dispatch troops: “Because Turkey with oppression and exile. breeding machines. “The girls Interviewed by The Arab Cagaptay writes. and Qatar backed Tripoli, the UAE Schami explores the political and matured early, many looked like Weekly, Cagaptay linked For Erdogan, Ca- and Egypt support [rebel leader social conditions that led to the adults as early as 12 but they were Erdogan’s populism to his gaptay said, restoring Field-Marshal Khalifa] Haftar. 2011 anti-regime mass protests that worn out and often already preg- imperial notions. “Na- Ottoman glories is Turkey pushed against Egypt, degenerated into full-fledged civil nant. By the time they were 20, tions that were once part populism and part and Qatar against the UAE — so war, now in its ninth year. they sometimes have as many as six great powers have an rejection of Ataturk’s it’s a proxy war of couples!” Schami is known for his interna- or seven children,” Schami writes. inflated, often nostalgic secularism. This shapes Other rivalries shape Tur- tionally acclaimed bestselling novel Female education is also frowned sense of their heyday,” foreign policy: while key’s maritime agreement with “The Dark Side of Love,” a forbid- upon. Phrases like “What would he said. “This comes Erdogan asserts Turkish Tripoli. “As Ankara sees it, an den love story revolving around the they think of you? You’ll never find with a readiness to be influence pragmatically axis has formed to its south of Arabic culture and traditions result- a good husband that way!” are com- inspired by politicians in central Asia and Af- Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus, ing in family feuds. He is a notable mon. who can embody this rica, even with Israel and [which] share numerous ini- figure in the European migrant The lack of freedom of speech is narrative.” Armenia, he remains close tiatives, including maritime and literature movement. evident; citizens must obey the dic- In “Erdogan’s to the Muslim Brotherhood, security co-operation. Turkey The author investigates the op- tatorship or would otherwise face Empire,” Cagaptay traces the or Ikhwan. wants to pierce through this axis pressive nature of the contradictory arrest or death. Schami describes Turkish president’s worldview “Erdogan has ideological and so will do whatever’s neces- Syrian society from the 1920s to the people as slaves, conditioned by to the tough quarter of Istan- convictions but is pragmatic,” Ca- sary to ensure the Tripoli govern- early 2011 and depicts it through the dictatorship. bul, where he was born in 1954. gaptay said. “He’s least pragmatic ment doesn’t fall.” Cagaptay said. a love story between a Christian “The clan is built on obedience The Kasimpasa neighbourhood, when it comes to relations with He also said confrontation with woman, Sophia, and a Muslim man, and loyalty and couldn’t care less Cagaptay writes, was populated Ikhwan.” Egypt is unlikely given Cairo’s Karim. The novel is based in various about democracy, freedom or hu- “by recent conservative arrivals… Cagaptay finds reasons in wariness of NATO’s second-big- settings including Damascus, Homs, man dignity. We are satisfied slaves from the Anatolian heartland” and Erdogan’s own life. “He sees a bit gest military. Russia’s limited role Beirut, Heidelberg and Rome. of our clan leaders, priding our- sat at the bottom of a hill lead- of his past and a bit of his future is a greater concern. “Erdogan Although Schami had been selves on the fact that we haven’t ing up to the “bohemian Beyoglu in the Ikhwan story,” Cagaptay won’t fight the Russians. In north- granted amnesty from the Syrian been arrested yet,” he writes. district and then to Nisantasi, the explained. “He, too, was once east Syria, Turkey pressed against government, he said he lived in fear Status and class are depicted city’s exclusive, upper-crust, secu- shunned as a political Islamist a US military presence but when of being arrested if he had returned as the main drivers of corrup- larist and old-money enclave.” leader, jailed, saw his party shut the Russians deployed after the to Damascus. He portrays his fear tion, where ranked officials of the Cagaptay tells the story well. down. He believes the opportunity US withdrawal, Turkish troops through the character of Salman, military exploited their power and Secularism, guarded by Tur- given him and his party to run in stopped,” he said. Sophia’s son, who was granted am- utilised it to torture people in the key’s armed forces, underlies free and fair elections should be Just as past empires tended nesty from the government. name of the dictatorship. Schami the republic created by Kamal given to Ikhwan-related parties. to collide, so do 21st-century Sceptical of the government’s describes the situation in Syria: That’s why he was upset when populists. In “Erdogan’s Empire,” intentions, Salman nonetheless “Corruption is the only reliable [Egyptian President Muhammad] Cagaptay asks why Turkey, Russia returns to Syria to reminisce on instrument of our state.” Morsi was ousted by the military- and Iran struggle to co-operate his childhood only to be charged The English translation by The commitment to led popular protest movement [in despite “deeply felt opposition” for crimes he did not commit. To Monique Arav and John Hannon Ikhwan hamstrung 2013].” to the West. “Each,” he argues, save him, Sophia relies on Karim reads well. “Sophia” gives an un- Erdogan’s approach Events in Egypt, Cagaptay said, “has couched its vision in dis- to return a favour and help her son derstanding of the conditions that resonate with Erdogan. “Morsi tinctly imperial terms.” flee to Rome. sparked the civil war in Syria and to Syria after 2012 won elections and was then sent The book explores various as- similarly in other Arab countries when he began to jail and died there. No one Gareth Smyth is a regular pects of Syrian culture at the time; that led to the “Arab spring.” said a word. Erdogan worries this contributor to The Arab Weekly. Schami gives sustained attention to supporting Islamist could happen to him one day and He has reported from the Middle the religious divergence between Joud Mazahreh is an intern with rebels. the world would be quiet. The East since 1992. Muslims and Christians. Karim The Arab Weekly. First Nubian language dictionary published by volunteers

Ahmed Megahid “It is important to act now to alphabet and vocabulary. It took Koma Waidi volunteers The Nubian culture is a symbol save the Nubian language from New generations of Nubians several weeks of interviews with of the cultural diversity of Egypt, total disappearance,” said Hafsa never learnt the language of their Nubian elders and three months where each region has its own group of activists Amberkab, a volunteer in the forefathers and the death of each to produce the booklet. traditions and distinct culture determined to initiative. “This great language older Nubian means fewer people Amberkab said they hope the and speaks a different dialect of rescue the sustains a new loss every day.” capable of speaking the language. publication will be the first step Arabic. Those in Egypt’s north- Nubian language The loss of historical Nubia in Some elders try to pass the towards producing a Nubian- ern coastal cities, for example, from total loss southern Egypt in the 1960s dealt language on to their children language dictionary. He said speak a dialect of Arabic different has produced a a staggering blow to the Nubian and grandchildren. They are it would be a great from the one spoken in Cairo. dictionary-style language. Egyptian authorities the people targeted by the achievement to Bedouins in Egypt’s deserts booklet,A the first in a series demolished dozens of Nubian vil- Koma Waidi initiative. preserve the language speak their own Arabic dialect. collecting Nubian words. lages to allow for the construction Amberkab and other ini- that has never been Each Egyptian city also has its The booklet containing 230 of the High Dam. tiative volunteers travelled written or document- own cuisine. rare Nubian words published The demolition of Nubian vil- to dozens of villages in ed. This cultural richness is what under the Koma Waidi initiative, lages and the relocation of tens southern Egypt to collect “The Nubian language drives the Koma Waidi volun- a Nubian phrase meaning “Tales of thousands of Nubians to other Nubian words from the is only alive in the minds teers. Self-funded but adamant to of the Past.” parts of Egypt devastated Nubian mouths of those who of those who lived in complete their mission, they say culture, including the language. still speak the lan- Nubia before the construc- the loss of the Nubian language The Nubians left everything guage. They filmed old tion of the High Dam,” will be a major human loss. behind them: their homes, their Nubians as they spoke in said Mustafa Abdel Qadir, a “We started this work because The Nubian culture culture and their language. their native language and took Nubian culture specialist. “A we are afraid that the Nubian is a symbol of the They had to mimic other the videos to specialists who huge number of the terms and language can be something of the cultural diversity of Egyptians in the cities where they translated the words into Arabic, the words of the language have past one day,” said volunteer Fat- started a new life. They included English and Spanish. already died with the people who ma Ghadar. “New generations of Egypt, where each speaking Arabic, considered a “It was very useful document- knew them.” Nubians can learn this language region has its own foreign language in the villages ing these words before they are This is why Koma Waidi vol- only when it is documented.” where they were born. This led either forgotten or dead with the unteers are racing against time traditions and to a great diminishment of the people who can still speak them,” to rescue as many Nubian words Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian distinct culture. language, which has its own Amberkab said. and expressions as possible. reporter based in Cairo. 24 January 19, 2020 Mosaic www.thearabweekly.com

Algerian celebrate the Yennayer New Year in Ath Mendes, south of Tizi-Ouzou, east of Algiers. An Algerian Berber woman prepares couscous, south of (AFP) Tizi-Ouzou, east of Algiers. (AFP) Celebration of Amazigh new Agenda Muscat: Through February 15 year reflects Algeria’s diversity The annual Muscat Festival in Oman features nightly fire- works, traditional Omani music performances, local cuisine, craft displays, exhibitions from regional countries and traditional but also stark contradictions dancing.

Marrakech: Saber Blidi disavowed the constituencies behind the campaign either. The campaign January 26 is supported by political and media Algeria elites who did not hesitate to accuse More than 8,000 runners from Amazigh Algerians of “treason” and all over the world will be racing lgeria celebrated the of being “unpatriotic” by branding in the Marrakech International Amazigh New Year amid them as “Zouaves.” Marathon in . Many great controversy over na- Algerian authorities are accused of international sports personalities A tional identity, especially observing a dubious silence regarding will participate in the race while considering the authorities’ conflict- the issue and of not punishing parties various touristic activities and ing positions regarding political and behind the divisive campaign, com- street shows take place during cultural identities and diversity in the pared to the enthusiasm they show the event. country. in suppressing political protests by While Algerian authorities official- all Algerians and the Amazigh in par- Aqaba: ly recognise and celebrate the occa- ticular. During February sion, they also criminalise brandish- The hostile anti-Amazigh cam- ing the Amazigh flag during protests. paign turned the accusation of being The Aqaba Traditional Arts Dozens of protesters have been jailed “Zouaves” into a synonym for the The Berber flag hangs next to the national Algerian flag as Berbers Festival in Jordan promotes the on charges of threatening national tribal region and its inhabitants, even celebrate the Yennayer New Year in Ath Mendes, south of Tizi-Ouzou, culture of the Bedouin people unity. though history suggests the contrary. east of Algiers. (AFP) and community in the region. Algerian President Abdelmadjid The Amazigh people and region The festival showcases Bedouin- Tebboune and the military leader- were strongly and widely involved in made handcrafted goods. ship officially presented their best the Algerian liberation struggle (1954- fabricating an unprecedented con- messages to the Amazigh commu- wishes to the Algerian people on the 62). The first congress of the Algerian troversy about “national identity” nity as soon as he assumed office. He Dubai: occasion of the Amazigh New Year, revolution, perhaps the founding act and for escalating and nurturing a apologised for not visiting Tizi Ouzou February 3-4 January 12, but the president did not of the Algerian state, took place in charged discourse between Arabs and Bejaia provinces during the elec- pardon, as expected, those impris- the Soummam Valley in 1956. Those and Amazigh. Of course, the cam- tion campaign and appointed a sig- Italian pianist Ludovico Einaudi oned for raising the Amazigh flag. facts are purposely ignored by the paign trivialised important historical nificant number of figures from those will take to the Dubai Opera stage Following a constitutional amend- perpetrators of the hate campaign. and cultural issues that ought to be- regions to his administrative staff or to perform a selection of com- ment in 2016 declaring January 12 a The Armed Zouave Faction was long to purely academic debates. in the government of Prime Minister positions from his latest album, national holiday, the Algerian gov- created by the Ottoman Empire dur- The forces of the popular move- . “Seven Days Walking.” The ernment has staged official celebra- ing its last days in Algeria. It was used ment were not duped by the ma- album includes selections from tions of the Amazigh New Year in the by the French colonial authority at noeuvre and countered with slogans films such as “The Intouchables” state’s institutions. The government the beginning of the occupation to of unity and cohesion in marches in President Abdelmadjid and “Acquario.” also created an academy for the ad- suppress local resistance and that’s Algiers and other cities in the country. Tebboune officially vancement of the Amazigh language how “Zouave” became synonymous Legal experts say that by forbid- congratulated Algerians on Tunis: as a national language next to Arabic. of treason in Algerian imaginary. ding Amazigh flags in protests and the occasion of the Amazigh February 5 However, confusion over conflict- The anti-Amazigh campaign is part marches, Algerian authorities com- New Year, January 12, but ing positions of the authorities re- of a vision promoted by political and mitted a major violation of the coun- demonstrators who raised the Organised and performed by Ori- garding the status of the Amazigh media elites who met secretly in Mo- try’s legal statutes since nothing in Amazigh flag remain in jail. ental Melody Troop, Rahabeniet component in Algeria’s national staganem, in north-western Algeria, current legislation criminalises bran- II features the Rahbani brothers’ identity is still prevalent, especially to draw up a plan that be- dishing a flag other than the official Amazigh activists cannot fathom diverse music pieces. The show after the arrest and imprisonment of came known as Zero Ka- national flag. the logic behind Algerian authorities’ will take place at the Municipal dozens of Amazigh activists accused byle Algeria, which aims The authorities changed the charge double and triple standards when Theatre of Tunis of raising the Amazigh flag during at ridding the country’s against the arrested protesters to it comes to the Amazigh question. demonstrations that have swept the identity and institu- threatening national unity. They also Overnight, the Amazigh flag gets Beirut: country for nearly a year. tions of the Amazigh obstructed, on Tuesdays and Fridays, hoisted atop of the major administra- February 18-March 22 The issue has been exacerbated by element. travel to tive buildings of Algeria and the pres- the enormous tension on social me- A systematic Algiers by ident flirts with the Amazigh street Al Bustan International Festival dia, intentionally created and fed by campaign on so- Kabyle and recruits Amazigh personalities of Music and the Performing Arts anti-Amazigh elements who consider cial networks is residents, for his cabinet but dozens of Amazigh is a musical celebration that takes the Arab-Muslim components as the responsible for in abso- activists remain imprisoned for hoist- place at various venues in Beirut only ones of Algerian national identi- lute viola- ing the Amazigh flag in the street, a and promotes music from all over ty. Activists of the popular movement tion of charge that no law in the country has the world. The festival includes and politicians said they considered consti- criminalised. orchestral concerts, choral music, the trend part of the authorities’ tutional Activist Gillas Agrad, from Bouira, opera and dance performances. manoeuvres to dismantle the provi- declared: “The (popular) movement popular movement and sow sions that picked up on all the manoeuvres of We welcome submissions of discord among members of guarantee freedom the authorities and won’t accept any- calendar items related to the same society regard- of movement thing less than the departure of the cultural events of interest to less of the risks to Alge- except when pro- current authority and the achieve- travellers in the Middle East ria’s internal cohesion. scribed by a court ment of a comprehensive political and North Africa. While authorities decision. change in the country. Algerians have not publicly Given the seriousness stand as one people and won’t be di- Please send tips to: endorsed the anti- An Algerian Berber horseman celebrates the Yennayer New Year in of the social rift created vided by anyone.” [email protected] Amazigh sentiments, Ath Mendes, south of Tizi-Ouzou, east of Algiers. (AFP) by the authorities, Teb- they haven’t boune sent positive Saber Blidi is an Algerian writer.