UK £2 Issue 239, Year 5 EU €2.50 January 12, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com ’s Five years after Tunisian parliament faltering Charlie Hebdo deals stinging blow tourism sector massacre to Islamists

Page 21 Page 19 Page 5 Weakened by showdown with US, After Qaboos dies, Iran faces outcry over plane downing first Omani Iranians are unlikely to quietly accept their government’s responsibility in the catastrophe Thomas Seibert transition in

Istanbul 50 years fter a roller-coaster week Mohammed Alkhereiji that saw the assassina- tion of a top Iranian gen- A eral by the United States, London an Iranian calculated retaliation against US troops in , attempts he death of Sultan Qaboos at de-escalation and the death of bin Said Al Said, the region’s 176 people in a plane crash caused longest-ruling , at by an Iranian missile, the regime in T the age of 79, ushered in the Tehran finds itself embattled and first Omani leadership transition in weakened both internationally and nearly 50 years. at home. Sultan Qaboos, who died January It was embroiled in a major new 10, was rumoured to have been suf- domestic and international crisis af- fering from cancer for several years ter it had to admit January 11 that it and his health took a turn for the had downed a Ukrainian passenger worse last year, sparking rumours of jet earlier in the week. an imminent succession. The killing of Qassem Soleimani, Ending years of speculation over the head of Iran’s al-Quds Force, who would succeed Qaboos, who January 3 in Baghdad, was a major was unmarried and had no heirs, the blow to the Iranian regime but its Omani government announced that leaders sought to capitalise on the Culture Minister event, which triggered an outpour- Al Said, a cousin of the late sultan’s, ing of grief that saw thousands of would be the new sultan of the Gulf Iranians attend funeral ceremonies. Arab country. While Iran was as clearly careful Sultan Haitham, 65, ascended on to avoid a full-blown confronta- the recommendation of Sultan Qa- tion with the United States, Islamic Crisis within the crisis. Mourners attend an outdoor vigil for the victims of a Ukrainian passenger jet boos. state TV said the Omani Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which crashed in Iran, in Toronto, Canada, January 9. (Reuters) Defence Council opened the enve- leaders did not seem to accept the lope in which Sultan Qaboos had Erbil missile strike as the extent of “Armed Forces’ internal investi- mad Javad Zarif appeared to hold Some took to social media to vent named his successor. Iranian revenge. Senior IRGC com- gation has concluded that, regret- Washington partly responsible, cit- their anger over the regime’s incom- Sultan Qaboos rose to power July mander Abdollah Araghi, speaking tably, missiles fired due to human ing “US adventurism.” petence and failed efforts to cover 23, 1970, following a bloodless coup. after US President Donald Trump error caused the horrific crash of Experts said mounting interna- up the affair. He led Oman since the age of 29 and said Iran appeared to be “standing the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 tional scrutiny would have made it “I know it’s not the first time ‘hu- helped steer the country through down,” proclaimed Iran would take innocent people,” Iranian President all but impossible to hide signs of man error’ leads to a catastrophe the political turmoil that came with “harsher revenge soon.” Hassan Rohani posted on Twitter a missile strike in an investigation but ‘intentionally’ trying to conceal the “Arab spring” protests in 2011, as By the end of the week, the re- January 11. and Iran may have felt a swift policy the reality for three days is a sign of well as economic uncertainties that gime had wasted all political and It was unclear whether the mis- reversal to admit responsibility was the total moral collapse of #Iran’s resulted from fluctuating oil prices. psychological capital it might have sile was fired by the regular army or better than battling rising criticism government,” Hamidreza Azizi, an He oversaw the sultanate’s inde- amassed at home by presenting it- the IRGC but the official IRNA news abroad, as well as facing growing assistant professor at Shahid Be- pendent — and at times controver- self as the victim of an unprompted agency said the IRGC would offer an anger and grief over the crash at heshti University in Tehran, wrote sial — foreign policy, taking stances US attack. Following initial denials, apology and an explanation for the home because most victims were on Twitter. not always in the government was forced to admit crash. Iranian. alignment with responsibility for the catastrophic Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah After weeks of protests over living Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly the Gulf Co- January 8 crash of a Ukrainian pas- Ali Khamenei ordered the country’s conditions, Iranians are unlikely to correspondent. operation senger jet, in which 57 Canadians armed forces to address “shortcom- quietly accept their government’s Council. were among the 176 people killed. ings” and Foreign Minister Moham- responsibility in the catastrophe. P3,6,8,16-17 Erdogan and Putin’s call for ceasefire rejected, reports of first Turkish casualties

The Arab Weekly staff give the two countries a bigger role and Putin, tried and failed to hijack a government it has gained a signifi- A 2010 file picture shows in Libya as well as more leverage on German initiative to organise a peace cant source for the purchase of Turk- Oman’s Sultan Europe, which is concerned about a conference in Berlin. ish military hardware and influence Al Said saluting at the start of a Tunis flow of illegal migrants from Libya’s Turkey and Russia have developed in the future of Eastern Mediterra- military parade at a stadium in coast to its southern shores. Turkey a close relationship in recent years nean gas,” said Simon Waldman, an . (AFP) fforts by Turkey and Russia also hopes the alliance with Russia in that seeks to maximise joint benefits associate fellow at the Henry Jackson to put aside conflicting in- Libya will strengthen Ankara’s posi- despite supporting opposing sides in Society. “Today we lost a historic and re- terests in Libya and present tion in a row with its neighbours over the Syrian war. In November, Erdogan signed a naissance figure of high class with E themselves as peacemakers the ownership of natural gas reserves maritime delimitation agreement the death of Sultan Qaboos,” UAE suffered a major setback when a in the Eastern Mediterranean. with Sarraj that outraged Greece, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs joint bid to enforce a ceasefire in the Turkey backs Fayez al-Sarraj’s Trip- Ankara is seeking and Cyprus because it gives Anwar Gargash wrote on Twitter. North African country fell flat amid oli-based internationally recognised geostrategic and Turkey exploration rights in a gas- Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin reports of Turkish casualties in the Government of National Accord and economic advantages rich area of the Mediterranean where Rashid al-Maktoum in a Twitter post conflict. has said it would send military advis- through intervention in the three countries have significant described Sultan Qaboos as the sul- Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s ers, mercenaries and possibly troops Libya. interests. tan of honour, affection and wisdom. eastern-based Libyan National Army to reinforce its support. Russian mili- As Erdogan met with Putin on Jan- “Sultan Qaboos had such charis- (LNA) rejected the Turkish-Russian tary contractors have been said to be While Putin is the most important uary 8, France, Greece, Egypt and Cy- matic authority and became so syn- ceasefire call and said it would con- deployed alongside the LNA, which ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad, prus declared “null and void” agree- onymous with Oman as a modern tinue its campaign to oust the gov- took control of Sirte, a strategically Erdogan has backed militant groups ments between Ankara and Libya nation-state that it will naturally be ernment in Tripoli. important city in the centre of Libya’s fighting the Damascus government assigning Turkey rights over a vast difficult for any successor to repli- The Libya Review website, based Mediterranean coastline, in a rapid but the arrangements reached in Syr- area of the Eastern Mediterranean. A cate that, at least at the beginning,” in Tripoli, said three Turkish soldiers advance January 7 and was seeking ia seem difficult to duplicate in Libya. statement by the foreign ministers of Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, of Rice had been killed in Libya. There was to consolidate gains. Beside the economic benefits it the four countries said the controver- University’s Baker Institute, told no official statement from the Turk- Despite being on different sides of sees in Libya’s reconstruction, Anka- sial agreements undermined regional Reuters. ish government. The Syrian Observa- the conflict, Turkish President Recep ra is seeking other advantages. stability. tory for Human Rights, a war monitor Tayyip Erdogan and Russian Presi- “By sending troops (and Turkey- Mohammed Alkhereiji is Gulf close to the Syrian opposition, said dent Vladimir Putin issued a call for backed Syrian fighters), Turkey has See full version in www. section editor of The Arab Weekly. “several” Syrian fighters had been a ceasefire in Libya during a meeting managed to give itself a place on the thearabweekly.com killed in clashes in Libya. January 8 in Istanbul. table when the future of Libya is dis- See full version in www. A Turkish-Russian alliance could With the ceasefire call, Erdogan cussed and by backing the Tripoli P2,14-15 thearabweekly.com 2 January 12, 2020 Top news Despite call for ceasefire, fighting to continue in Libya Michel Cousins The Turkish deployment — a com- Egypt for help. However, the scale bination of regular forces and Arab of Egyptian support may be limited mercenaries transferred from to defending LNA positions in east- Tunis and former Turkish soldiers em- ern Libya. Like Russia, Egypt will not ployed by the Istanbul-based SADAT want a direct confrontation with Tur- hen Turkish President security company technically acting key. Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Libya in a private capacity — could As to other outside players, their and Russian President present a massive threat, especially ability to stabilise a dangerously esca- W Vladimir Putin called for if they focus on capturing Tarhouna, lating situation is limited. The United a ceasefire in Libya, it was not clear the LNA’s prime base south-west of Arab Emirates and will that either of them believed their Tripoli. continue to support Haftar but the respective clients in Libya — the UN- Haftar gained a major strategic backing is likely to be largely moral recognised Government of National success with the capture January 6 and financial. Accord led by Fayez al-Sarraj and the of Sirte, although that was achieved With the crisis in the Gulf far from Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haf- almost entirely because the 604 In- over, following the killing of Iranian tar — would agree. fantry Battalion, the only wholly lo- Major-General Qassem Soleimani There were suspicions that Erdog- cal force in the town, switched sides. and Iran’s retaliation with missile an and Putin were making initial dip- Many of its members are from the strikes in Iraq, they will be primarily lomatic gestures ahead of a very dif- Qaddadfa tribe of former dictator focused on their own security. The ferent plan for Libya, one that would Muammar Qaddafi or the Ferjan tribe United States will likewise remain fo- see them as its future power brokers. to which Haftar belongs. The capture cused on the Gulf region. Unchanged course. Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte (L) The call for a ceasefire as of Janu- of Sirte prevents Turkish forces from As for the United Nations and UN and Libya’s military strongman Khalifa Haftar at Palazzo Chigi ary 12 was a serious rebuff for Haftar moving into the town and reinforces Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Sala- in downtown Rome for a meeting as part of Europe’s accelerating because Russia had been a major ally. Haftar’s prestige. me, their credibility and capacity to diplomatic efforts to seek ways to ease crisis, January 8. (AFP) Without fighters from Russia’s Wag- It was not clear whether Putin influence events in Libya are at a low ner Group it is unlikely that the Lib- would withdraw Russian combatants and they have no meaningful politi- GNA as the only “legitimate” faction. ports indicate, would be satisfied if yan National Army (LNA) would have from Libya. Neither he nor Erdogan cal role to play. , too, seems pro-GNA, al- its outstanding Libyan military bills made the advances towards central want clashes between their fighters, The same goes for the Europeans. though that is largely because of sen- are paid, receives new arms orders Tripoli that it has in recent weeks af- whether official or unofficial. They They may express concern about Lib- sitivity towards Haftar’s links with and has other commercial deals reac- ter months of stalemate in the city’s achieved de-confliction in Syria and ya, as did the French, Italian, German Egypt. Algiers is traditionally nervous tivated, such as the $4.5 billion Sirte- southern suburbs. may do so in Libya. Closer ties with and British foreign ministers January about Egyptian influence in Libya. Benghazi railway. A ceasefire would stop Haftar from Turkey and a common regional policy 7, calling on “external actors” — pri- Looking to build on this in yet Libya is on a more dangerous tra- taking Tripoli and save the Govern- — and, as a result, a weakening of ties marily a reference to Turkey — to stay another fast move in the quest for jectory than ever. With the Turkish ment of National Accord (GNA) from with NATO — are far greater prizes for out of the Libyan conflict but no one potential regional allies, Sarraj and presence, the conflict is intensifying defeat. It might also undo the allianc- Putin than Libya. in Libya is taking notice. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Ca- and doing so in the interests of out- es Haftar made with various tribes, It is not clear whether Erdogan has Two days earlier, the GNA summar- vusoglu were in Algiers on January 6 side powers. An even bigger danger communities and military groups in sent Turkish Army soldiers, despite ily postponed a meeting scheduled in to attempt to persuade new Algerian is that with Turkish, Egyptian, Greek western and southern Libya, allianc- announcing that troops had been Tripoli with the French, Italian and President to involvement and that of other out- es that delivered much of the country dispatched. Turkish Foreign Minister German foreign ministers along with back them. side players, the conflict could spread into his hands. Mevlut Cavusoglu said military ex- the European Union’s foreign policy The one exception in European ir- beyond Libya’s borders. It was unsurprising that the GNA perts and technicians were being sent chief. relevance in Libya is Greece. It active- There were unconfirmed reports welcomed the Erdogan-Putin cease- but there have been Turkish military At a January 8 meeting in Cairo, ly backs Haftar and Egypt. There is a that three Turkish soldiers had been fire. Unsurprisingly, too, Haftar re- experts in Tripoli and Misrata for the French, Greek, Cypriot and Egyp- serious possibility that it and Egypt killed in the Tripoli fighting. Erodgan jected it. some time. tian foreign ministers dismissed the may close their airspace to prevent had announced that Turkish forces While thanking Putin for his initia- The Turkish parliament specifically controversial maritime boundaries Turkish military support going to were being sent to support the GNA tive, Haftar insisted that, before any approved the deployment of troops to agreement between the GNA and Libya. It is likely also to provide naval but it was not clear whether any had political process could be revived, Libya on January 2. Approval would Turkey. The Italian foreign minister, support but that could escalate into a been deployed. “terrorist groups” in Tripoli had to be not have been needed for military who was at the Cairo gathering, did Turkish-Greek confrontation. It was thought that any casualties eradicated and the militias there dis- experts or for the other group Turkey not sign the declaration. Because of their hands-on mili- would have been among foreign mili- armed and dissolved. has been sending, Arab jihadists and France continues to try to influence tary involvement, Turkey and Russia tants recently transferred to Tripoli By rejecting the call, he ensured mercenaries previously in Syria. events in Libya but with little success. are the dominant external players in from Syria by Turkey. A number of that the LNA might have to face far Turkey is also providing major After leaving Cairo, French Foreign Libya. They are actively collaborat- fighters, speaking with a Syr- superior Turkish forces (and allied weaponry, including air defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drain stopped ing. It is not a balanced relationship, ian accent, were said to be operating mercenaries and jihadists) in bat- systems and probably new air strike in Tunis to try to persuade Tunisian however: Russia is the lesser partner in Ain Zara, Tripoli’s southern sub- tle. He was probably also aware that capacity but, without troops in the President not to take sides in terms of what it wants in Libya. urb, which is partially occupied by whatever he decided, militants in country, any offensive against the in Libya but it is unclear whether his Turkey is looking to a major share the LNA. Tripoli would almost certainly carry LNA would be protracted. entreaty worked. The Islamists who of the more than $1 trillion in recon- on fighting as well, regardless of what With no ceasefire and more fight- are forming the next Tunisian gov- struction contracts expected when Michel Cousins is a contributor to Sarraj wanted. ing a certainty, Haftar can rely on ernment advocate dealing with the fighting ends in Libya. Russia, re- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. Turkish majority opposes Erdogan’s Libyan policies

Thomas Seibert from the “use of force” employed by The survey by the MetroPoll firm “The government is about to put “Right now, we will have different the Erdogan administration in other stated that 49.7% of respondents Turkey into great danger with this units serving as a combatant force,” times. said they were against sending Turk- decision,” Celikoz said during parlia- he said, without detailing who the Istanbul The GNA, which has the support ish soldiers to Libya while 37.7% said mentary debate January 2. fighters would be and where they of militant groups and armed mili- they support the government’s plan. Erdogan’s critics pointed to re- would come from. Senior Turkish urkish citizens are showing tias, in December requested Turk- The figures suggest that the troop ports that the Turkish government military personnel would coordi- reluctance to follow Turkish ish support to thwart an offensive deployment is not backed by all sup- was sending Syrian militants to Libya nate the “fighting force,” Erdogan President Recep Tayyip Er- by the Libyan National Army, led by porters of Erdogan’s ruling Justice and promised Turkish passports as a explained, sharing their experience T dogan’s aggressive policies Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Haftar and Development Party (AKP) and its reward. and information to support Tripoli. in the Eastern Mediterranean. is backed by Turkey’s regional rivals, right-wing partner, the Nationalist Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow in the Reports stated that Turkey is dis- Erdogan said the country was including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Movement Party (MHP). Polls say the Middle East Programme at the For- patching members of pro-Turkish sending military units to Libya, while the UN-backed government AKP and MHP combined have about eign Policy Research Institute in militias in Syria and mercenary ele- where Ankara is supporting the has the support of Ankara and its ally 50% of voters behind them. Philadelphia, said on Twitter that ments to fight in Libya. Sources with embattled UN-recognised govern- . A poll by the firm Research Istan- sources inside Turkey-backed Syrian the Free Syrian Army told Reuters ment in Tripoli. Speaking January 5 Turkey’s parliament authorised bul and published January 10 in the factions told her “that in exchange that an undetermined number of with the CNN-Turk news channel, deployment of troops to Libya in a Cumhuriyet newspaper suggested for fighting in Libya, fighters are be- fighters had signed up on “an in- Erdogan said Turkish soldiers were vote January 2, following a separate an even bigger reluctance. It said ing promised Turkish citizenship af- dividual basis” to work as “body- “already going gradually” to Libya deal on sending military experts and 58% or respondents said they re- ter 6 months of deployment.” guards” for a Turkish “security com- to help the Government of National weapons signed into law in Decem- jected the idea of sending Turkish “Multiple commanders in the fac- pany” in Libya. Accord (GNA) of Fayez al-Sarraj. He ber. “Our aim is to keep the legiti- troops to Libya, while 34% expressed tions received Turkish citizenship The Turkish plans also triggered said Turkish forces were tasked with mate government [in Libya] on its support for deployment. Research and passports over the past month,” criticism from Europe. Britain, “coordination” at a command cen- feet,” Erdogan said. He called Haftar Istanbul Director Can Selcuki told Tsurkov tweeted. France, Germany and Italy put out tre. a “putschist.” the newspaper the results were not Abdullatif Sener, a former Erdogan a statement January 7 calling for an Days after ordering the troop de- However, new poll results suggest surprising because ordinary Turks aide who is now a CHP lawmaker, end to fighting and “continuing out- ployment, Erdogan issued a ceasefire Erdogan’s arguments had failed to could not see any benefits of the mil- commented that the government side interference.” EU diplomatic call for Libya with Russian President convince Turkish voters. Most Turks itary action for their daily lives. was giving “a lot of money and Turk- chief Josep Borrell said the Turkish Vladimir Putin, a step much more in questioned said they supported the Opposition politicians warned that ish citizenship to people who are not decision to intervene in Libya was line with public sentiment in Turkey. country’s military intervention in the Libya deployment could end in right in the head.” “something that we reject and which In a rare show of solidarity with the neighbouring Syria because they disaster for Turkey. CHP Lawmaker Erdogan fuelled speculation about increases our worries about the situ- government, the secularist Repub- saw the actions as steps to counter Unal Celikoz called the parliamen- dispatching of Syrian rebels by tell- ation in Libya.” lican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s threats to national security but many tary bill giving Erdogan the right to ing CNN-Turk that Turkey would not EU Council President Charles main opposition group, welcomed appear to view the deployment in send troops to Libya a potential “ca- be deploying its own combat forces Michel was to meet with Erdogan the appeal, saying the move differed Libya differently. tastrophe.” to Libya. January 11 in Istanbul. January 12, 2020 3 Top news

Under pressure, Iran admits it shot down Ukrainian plane

Nasser Karimi and the United States after the killing Joseph Krauss of Soleimani. He expressed condo- lences to families of the victims and called for a “full investigation” and Tehran the prosecution of those responsible. “A sad day,” Iran’s Foreign Minis- ran’s Islamic Revolutionary ter Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted. Guard Corps has acknowledged “Human error at time of crisis caused that it shot down a Ukrainian jet- by US adventurism led to disaster. I liner, killing all 176 aboard, after Our profound regrets, apologies and the government had repeatedly de- condolences to our people, to the nied international accusations that it families of all victims and to other af- was responsible. fected nations.” The plane was shot down early The jetliner, a Boeing 737 oper- January 9, hours after Iran launched ated by Ukrainian International Air- a ballistic missile attack on two mili- lines, went down on the outskirts of tary bases housing US troops in Iraq Tehran shortly after taking off from in retaliation for the killing of Iranian Imam Khomeini International Air- Major-General Qassem Soleimani in port. an American air strike in Baghdad. The United States and Canada, cit- No one was wounded in the Iranian ing intelligence, said they believed attack on the bases. Iran shot down the aircraft with a Iranian General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, surface-to-air missile, a conclusion the head of the Islamic Revolution- supported by videos verified by the ary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) aerospace Associated Press. division, said his unit accepted “full The plane, en route to the Ukrain- responsibility” for the shootdown. In ian capital of Kyiv, was carrying 167 In the cross hairs. A 2017 file picture shows US Marines stationed in al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. (AP) an address broadcast by state TV, he passengers and nine crew members, said that when he learned about the including 82 Iranians, 57 Canadians downing of the plane, “I wished I was and 11 Ukrainians, according to offi- dead.” cials. The Canadian government had He said IRGC forces ringing Tehran earlier lowered the country’s death Iran avoids full-blown war with had beefed up air defences and were toll from 63. at the “highest level of readiness,” “This is the right step for the Ira- fearing that the United States would nian government to admit responsi- retaliate. He said an officer made the bility, and it gives people a step to- US but is caught in new crisis “bad decision” to open fire on the wards closure with this admission,” plane after mistaking it for a cruise said Payman Parseyan, a prominent missile. Iranian-Canadian in western Canada Thomas Seibert general was a big loss for Iran,” mander warned of “harsher re- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah who said he lost a number of friends Seyed Ali Alavi, of the School of venge soon” and another said the Ali Khamenei expressed “deep sym- in the crash. Oriental and African Studies at missile strikes had been only the pathy” to the families of the victims “I think the investigation would Istanbul the University of London, said by start of attacks across the region. and called on the armed forces to have disclosed it whether they ad- e-mail. Soleimani had been “an More than 5,000 US troops are “pursue probable shortcomings and mitted it or not. This will give them he Iranian leadership, rat- iconic charismatic figure and was in Iraq, along with the other for- guilt in the painful incident.” an opportunity to save face.” tled by the death of a top seen by many as the knight of the eign forces in a coalition that has Iran’s acknowledgement of re- Iran’s acknowledgement of re- general in an US drone at- military apparatuses.” trained and backed Iraqi forces to sponsibility for the crash was likely sponsibility was likely to renew T tack, hit at US forces in Analysts said the missile strikes fight the Islamic State. to inflame public sentiment against questions of why authorities did not Iraq with missile strikes designed by Iran were an effort to prevent a While Khamenei called the mis- authorities after Iranians had rallied shut down the country’s main inter- to save face at home but not spark- full-blown war against the United sile strikes a “slap in the face” of around their leaders since Soleim- national airport and its airspace af- ing a full-blown war that would States, whose military power is the United States, Iranian Foreign ani’s killing. Soleimani, the leader ter the ballistic missile attack if they threaten the very existence of the vastly superior to Tehran’s. Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif of the IRGC’s al-Quds Force and the feared US reprisals. Islamic Republic. “This to me looks like the sym- took a softer line, stressing that, as architect of Iran’s regional military It also undermines the credibility Analysts said the danger of a new bolic aspect of Iran’s revenge,” far as Iran was concerned, the at- interventions, was seen as a national of information provided by senior escalation remained as command- Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Pro- tacks had “concluded” the revenge icon. Hundreds of thousands of Ira- Iranian officials. As recently as Janu- ers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary gramme at the International Crisis for Soleimani’s death. nians had turned out for funeral pro- ary 10, Ali Abedzadeh, head of the Guard Corps (IRGC) seemed to be group, said by e-mail in reference Tehran rejected Trump’s call for cessions across the country. national aviation department, said clamouring for more revenge at- to the missile strikes. Strategically, a “new deal” and said it could not “with certainty” that a missile had tacks but Tehran was on the de- Iran was trying to push the United trust any idea of dialogue when not caused the crash. fensive after being forced to admit States out of Iraq and Syria at the Trump was threatening to inten- Iranian General Amir Ali Iran had invited Ukraine, Canada, that Iran’s air defence shot down minimum, he added. sify the “economic terrorism” of Hajizadeh, the head of the United States and France to take a Ukrainian airliner near Tehran sanctions. the Islamic part in the investigation of the crash, on January 8, killing all 176 people The Iranian government is try- Revolutionary Guard in keeping with international norms. on board. Iran rejected the accusa- Kaleigh Thomas, ing to use the attack on Soleimani a Middle East analyst Corps’ (IRGC) aerospace The Boeing 737 was built in the Unit- tions and said they were “psycho- at the Centre for to improve its standing at home, division, said his unit ed States and its engines were built logical warfare.” a New American where hundreds of thousands of accepted “full by a US-French consortium. Tehran initially rejected the ac- Security people protested against fuel price Zelensky said Ukraine’s investiga- cusations and said they were “psy- rises last year, as well as in Iraq, responsibility” for the “The coming weeks and shootdown. tors, already in Iran, should continue chological warfare” but Iranian where demonstrators criticised their work with “full access and co- President Hassan Rohani, speak- months will likely see Iran’s influence. Most of the crash victims were Ira- operation.” ing January 11, said “human error additional moves from Iran “The brazen and escalatory nians or Iranian-Canadians. Hajizadeh said the pilot and crew caused the horrific crash” and that to inflict pain on the United strike on Soleimani fits into an After three days of denials, Tehran of the passenger plane had done “Iran deeply regrets this disastrous States and its partners.” anti-American narrative that the tried to control the damage from its nothing wrong and that the armed mistake.” Iranian regime is now leveraging loss of credibility. The reputational forces alone were responsible. Iranian state television said Iran both within its own territory and damage is expected to endure for a The semi-official Fars news agen- on January 8 fired 15 ballistic mis- “I wouldn’t be surprised at all if in Iraq,” Thomas said. Alavi agreed long time. cy reported that Khamenei on the siles from its territory at US targets we later learn that either through that Soleimani’s death could “so- Iranian officials repeatedly ruled morning of January 10 had ordered in its neighbour Iraq. The bases visible movement of missile lidify the position of Iran in the out a missile strike against the jetlin- top security officials to review the targeted were al-Asad Airbase and launchers or messaging through Shia parts of Iraq.” er, dismissing allegations as Western crash and announce the results. a facility in Erbil, the Pentagon intermediaries, Tehran had tried The Iranian public seemed to propaganda that officials said was -of “If some individuals, in any po- said. US President Donald Trump to give advanced warning to the rally around the leadership after fensive to the victims. On January 9, sition, were aware of the issue but said no Americans were hurt in the US as to limit casualties but there Soleimani’s death, with hundreds Iranian cabinet spokesman Ali Rabiei made statements contradicting the attacks and that Iran appeared to might still be a staggered response of thousands joining the general’s dismissed reports of a missile, saying reality or hid the truth for any reason, be “standing down.” as well in the form of assassinating funeral processions in several cit- they “rub salt on a painful wound” they should be named and tried,” The United States, which is mili- US military or diplomatic person- ies but the crash of the Ukrainian for families of the victims. said Fars, which is close to the IRGC. tarily much stronger than Iran, did nel down the road.” passenger jet could put the regime Ukrainian President Volodymyr Others speculated that the secu- not hit back in Iran but Trump an- Kaleigh Thomas, a Middle East in a tough spot. Zelensky issued a statement saying rity forces may have concealed infor- nounced new sanctions against analyst at the Centre for a New Iran’s acknowledgement of re- the crash investigation should con- mation from civilian authorities. Tehran and called for a “new deal” American Security, a Washington sponsibility for the crash was tinue and the “perpetrators” should “Concealing the truth from the to replace the Iranian nuclear think-tank, said: “The intention- likely to inflame public sentiment be brought to justice. He said Iran administration is dreadful,” Moham- agreement of 2015, which Trump ally well-calibrated attack by Iran against authorities after Iranians should compensate victims’ fami- mad Fazeli, a sociology professor in says is too weak to prevent Tehran on US forces in Iraq is not an effort had rallied around their leaders lies and requested “official apologies Tehran, wrote on social media. “If from building a nuclear weapon. to escalate conflict with the United following the death of Soleimani, through diplomatic channels.” it had not been concealed, the head The Iranian missile strikes were States but delivers an immediate, who was seen as a national icon. The crash was just weeks after of civil aviation and the government just hours after funeral ceremonies highly visible response to the kill- Most of the plane crash victims authorities quashed nationwide pro- spokesmen would not have persis- for Major-General Qassem Soleim- ing of Soleimani.” were Iranians or Iranian-Canadi- tests ignited by a hike in petrol prices. tently denied it.” ani, the commander of Iran’s Like Vaez, Thomas said more Ira- ans. Iranian officials repeatedly Iran has been in the grip of a severe “Concealing the truth for three al-Quds Forces, who was killed nian actions were possible. “The ruled out a missile strike, dismiss- economic crisis since US President days is dangerous,” he added. January 3 in Iraq. Soleimani, the coming weeks and months will ing allegations as Western propa- Donald Trump withdrew the United architect of Iran’s aggressive poli- likely see additional moves from ganda that officials said was offen- States from the 2015 nuclear deal and (The Associated Press. Joseph Krauss cies in the Middle East, was con- Iran to inflict pain on the United sive to the victims. imposed crippling sanctions. reported from Dubai. Associated sidered the country’s second most States and its partners,” she said. The crash came just weeks after Iranian President Hassan Rohani Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai powerful man behind Supreme The IRGC issued new threats authorities quashed nationwide blamed the shootdown of the plane and Rob Gillies in Toronto contrib- Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. against Washington after the Jan- protests ignited by a hike in petrol in part on “threats and bullying” by uted to this report.) “The assassination of Iran’s top uary 8 attacks. One senior com- prices. 4 January 12, 2020 Top news Washington’s relationship with Baghdad suffers fallout from US-Iran showdown

Emily Przyborowski teriorating situation,” he said. Iraq has sent a letter to the UN Se- curity Council complaining about Washington Iranian actions, Al Arabiya reported, citing a document it obtained. s Iraq acts as a potential In the letter, written by Iraq’s Per- stage for the crisis between manent Representative to the Unit- Tehran and Washington to ed Nations Mohammad al-Uloom, A play out, the relationship Iraq said it considered the bombing between Washington and Baghdad of Iraqi lands under the pretext of is nosediving. Iran’s defence “totally unacceptable The Iraqi parliament voted to “end and violates the principles of good any foreign presence on Iraqi soil neighbourliness.” and prevent the use of Iraqi airspace, In a phone call January 9 with US soil and water for any reason” and Secretary of State , Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- Abdul-Mahdi asked that a delega- Mahdi made it clear that he intends tion from the United States be sent to follow through on the non-bind- to Iraq to determine the process of ing legislation. withdrawing US troops. If he does, the effect on the United The decision was taken despite States and its efforts in the Middle assurances by the Trump adminis- East would be huge. More than 5,200 tration that it was moving towards US troops are deployed there to pre- de-escalation with Iran. The Iraqi vent a resurgence of the Islamic State prime minister has been clear that (ISIS) and counterbalance Iranian in- he believes de-escalation will only Turning point. Iraq’s caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi (C-down) and Parliament Speaker fluence in the country. The United be achieved through a withdrawal of Mohammed Halbousi (C-up) attend a parliamentary session regarding the ouster of US troops in States also trains the Iraqi military. US troops. Baghdad, January 5. (AFP) The parliamentary vote came af- Analysts said the pullout of US ter heightened tensions between troops could have a serious effect on at least some Iraqi legislators were a pullout of troops from Iraq because fectiveness of the campaigns be- Iran and the United States as well as Iraq and lead to wider Iranian influ- strong-armed into voting to push it would leave the Iraqi military in cause troops would have their focus domestic protests that began in Iraq ence in the country. the US soldiers out of the country by the hands of Iran, analysts said. split among multiple adversaries on in October. The escalation began Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a visiting fel- pro-Iran members of the Iraqi Popu- “If the United States were to with- multiple fronts. when the Iran-backed militant group low at the Brookings Institution, said lar Mobilisation Forces, which were draw its troops from Iraq, the gov- “The entire US mission in the Mid- Kata’ib killed an Ameri- the withdrawal of US troops “would under Soleimani’s control.” ernmental counterterrorism force dle East is being repositioned from a can contractor and was exacerbated expose a weak Iraq to its power- Other analysts said the situation would likely be merged with Iran- specific and focused goal of defeat- by the United States’ killing January ful Iranian neighbour’s increasing could damage counterterrorism ef- backed militias. It would both un- ing ISIS to an amorphous and open- 3 of Iranian Major-General Qassem weight as the Iraqi scene would forts in the region, especially the dermine their reputation and consti- ended campaign to counter Iran,” Soleimani. Iran retaliated by firing be handed over to Iran on a silver push against ISIS. The US-led Global tute a blow to the Iraqi state, which said Colin P. Clarke, a senior fellow more than a dozen ballistic missiles platter after the American counter- Coalition to Defeat ISIS said it was the US has sought to strengthen,” at the Soufan Centre, a think-tank in at Iraqi military bases housing US weight vanishes.” halting its campaigns in Iraq and Syr- said Peter Neumann, the founding New York. The threat of facing multi- troops. Bilal Saab and Michael Mulroy, in ia to focus on protecting itself from director of the International Centre ple enemies is that “US forces will be In a statement January 10, Iraqi an article published by Foreign Poli- possible retaliation by Iraq. Michael for the Study of Radicalisation. The overstretched while also becoming Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani con- cy, said that Iran may gain influence Knights, a senior fellow at the Wash- United States has played a key role in more attractive targets for a broad demned both Tehran and Washing- in a weakened Iraq. “Iraqi politicians ington Institute for Near East Policy, training the Iraqi counterterrorism array of adversaries,” said Clarke. ton for conducting attacks on Iraqi will not be able to prevent Iran from said: “The fight against ISIS has been force. soil. “The latest dangerous aggressive dominating Baghdad and subjugat- significantly degraded by the ten- Other analysts said combating Emily Przyborowski is an acts, which are repeated violations of ing Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish popula- sions between the US and Iran.” both Iran and ISIS in the region at Arab Weekly correspondent in Iraqi sovereignty, are a part of the de- tions,” they wrote. “It is likely that The damage may be furthered with the same time would inhibit the ef- Washington. UN slams Lebanon’s failure to form Egypt, Ethiopia, government as ‘irresponsible’ remain deadlocked

Reuters over giant Nile dam

Reuters as Egypt presented a new proposal requesting the filling to be carried out in 12-21 years. This is not accept- eeping Lebanon without Addis Ababa able. We will start the filling of the a government is “increas- dam by July,” Bekele said. ingly irresponsible,” a gypt, Ethiopia and Sudan re- The dispute over the filling and K senior UN official said in mained deadlocked after two operation of the massive dam has tough criticism of Lebanese lead- days of talks in their disputes sparked a diplomatic crisis between ers as the country sinks deeper E over a giant hydropower Egypt and Ethiopia, which both see into crisis without a rescue plan. dam on the Nile though Cairo said it existential threats in each other’s po- Lebanon has been without a hoped the issues would be resolved sitions on the project. functioning government since Saad by January 15 in line with a deadline Cairo fears the Grand Ethiopian Re- Hariri resigned as prime minister in agreed to with Washington. naissance Dam will restrict supplies October after protests against the “We did not reach an agreement of scarce Nile waters on which its political elite over corruption, leav- today but we achieved clarity at least population of more than 100 million ing the country adrift as a financial on all issues including the filling. We people is almost entirely dependent. and economic crisis deepens. hope to reach a deal next week in Addis Ababa denied the dam will Spiralling regional tensions since Washington,” Egyptian Water Minis- undermine Egypt’s access to water the killing of Iranian Major-General Patience running thin. An anti-government protester shouts ter Mohamed Abdel Aty said January and said the project is crucial to its Qassem Soleimani by the United slogans and knocks on a pan during a protest outside the 9, after two days of meetings in Addis economic development, as it aims States and threats made by Hezbol- residence of Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate in Ababa. to become Africa’s biggest power ex- lah Secretary-General Hassan Nas- Beirut, January 5. (AP) The countries are to convene Janu- porter with a projected capacity of rallah have added to the risks fac- ary 13 in Washington to try to resolve more than 6,000 megawatts. ing the heavily indebted Lebanon. Special Coordinator for Lebanon political allies to designate Hassan their disagreements over the filling A diplomat close to the talks said The Iran-backed Lebanese group Jan Kubis said in a Twitter post Jan- Diab, a former education minister, and operation of the $4 billion hy- Ethiopia did not offer sufficient guar- Hezbollah, which is sanctioned by uary 8. “I urge the leaders to move to form the cabinet. droelectric dam Ethiopia is building antees on water reserves. the United States and exercises ma- without any further delay.” Parliament Speaker on the Nile. “Ethiopia is not willing to jor sway in Beirut, has said Iran’s Lebanon’s worst economic crisis said a new government was need- They agreed to the timeline commit to any meaning- allies must help exact revenge. since the 1975-90 civil war has seen ed to reassure the people. Christian after a meeting in Washing- ful mitigation safeguards the Lebanese pound slump amid a politician Samir Geagea, a staunch ton with US Treasury Sec- including during extended shortage of dollars and banks tight- Hezbollah critic, said Lebanon retary Steven Mnuchin and drought, therefore there was The World Bank warned ly controlling access to cash and faced “a real catastrophe” and offi- World Bank President Da- no prospect for an agreement. the poverty rate in blocking transfers abroad. cials had wasted three months. vid Malpass in November. Next step is going to Lebanon could rise to 50% Former Economy Minister Nasser Diab did not win the support of After the meetings in (Washington),” he said. if economic conditions Saidi said recently that Lebanon Geagea or Hariri, who is aligned Addis Ababa ended with If the dispute is not worsen. needs an international bailout of with Western and Gulf Arab coun- no progress, Ethiopian resolved by up to $25 billion to help avert a po- tries. Analysts said his political Water Minister January 15, an Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- tential economic collapse. backing from Hezbollah could Seleshi Bekele international lah Ali Khamenei claimed Hezbol- The World Bank warned in No- complicate efforts to secure foreign accused Egypt mediator will lah was acting as the hands and vember that the poverty rate in aid. of going to the be appointed eyes of Lebanon. Lebanon could rise to 50% if eco- “There is still a significant risk talks with no to help resolve “Given the situation and devel- nomic conditions worsen. that Lebanon gets caught in the intention of it, the deal opments in the country and the re- After weeks of disputes over the cross hairs between the US and its reaching a deal. Thorny issue. Ethiopian Minister of the countries gion it is increasingly irresponsible next government, Hariri bowed allies and Iran,” said Jason Tuvey, “We didn’t Water, Irrigation and Energy Seleshi reached in to keep Lebanon without an effec- out of talks with adversaries in De- senior emerging markets econo- agree on the fill- Bekele speaks to reporters after talks Washington (AFP) tive and credible government,” UN cember, leading Hezbollah and its mist at Capital Economics. ing of the dam in Addis Ababa, January 9. states. January 12, 2020 5 Top news ’s Islamists suffer political blow after parliamentary rejection of cabinet

Lamine Ghanmi The law stipulates that the presi- dent had ten days to select a replace- ment for Jemli to build a coalition Tunis able to gather a majority in parlia- ment. If the impasse drags on, snap ost political alliances in parliamentary elections could be the Tunisia parliament called. have rejected a govern- Ennahda resisted proposals by M ment proposed by Prime other groups to form a “government Minister-designate Habib Jemli, of the president.” Constitutionally, who had been nominated by the Saied can select a prime minister- Islamist Ennahda Movement, serv- designate to form a cabinet able ing a stinging blow to the party and to receive a parliamentary major- showing its growing isolation. ity. Some secularist formations have Ennahda leaders had boasted been pushing for a government free about their ability to get parliament of Ennahda’s control, with the help to endorse Jemli’s 42-member cabi- of Saied. net but the 217-seat parliament vot- Ennahda has had a constant and ed down the proposed government, powerful presence in successive gov- 134-72. ernments since 2011, when it did well Some MPs from Ennahda and its in several elections, benefiting from ally, the more radical Islamist Kara- strong party discipline and conserva- ma Coalition, were among those tive support. voting against the Jemli cabinet. However, when Ennahda leaders Ennahda has 54 parliament mem- insisted that their designated govern- bers and Karama, which describes ment would “certainly” be approved, itself as the “radical base of Ennah- parliament members assailed them da,” has 21. for “moral collapse” and said they were betting on buying votes of “cor- rupt” deputies from other parties. Stinging blow. Tunisia’s Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli (C-down) and Ennahda President President Saied will now Ennahda denied accusations of at- Rached Ghannouchi (C-up) during a parliamentary session to vote on new government in Tunis, choose a new figure to form tempting to “influence” deputies of January 10. (Reuters) the government. other parties. Safi Said, an independent MP and The vote leaves Tunisia in a po- former presidential candidate, said presidency of the parliament and Analysts were left searching for ments have struggled to rein in high litical quandary. It is the first time before the vote: “I’m not here to fire eyes control of government. I’m not Ennahda’s motives in designating budget and trade deficits and control the country’s parliament delivered on an ambulance as this government against Ennahda but we oppose its Jemli, a virtually unknown and polit- debt. a vote of no-confidence in a govern- is stillborn. I am here to attend the approach and we will not allow it.” ically inexperienced, as prime min- Tunisia is also bracing for the ef- ment in the nine years of Tunisia’s session to witness the burial of this Qalb Tounes controls the second ister without securing the required fects of the intensifying conflict in democratic transition. government.” most seats in parliament. political backing. neighbouring Libya, with security The parliamentary rejection The defeat of the Islamists in the Before October’s elections, En- Some analysts said the loss of the forces on high alert to guard against could unravel Ennahda President parliament appeared certain when nahda had pledged not to align with parliament vote was a “failure and the possible infiltration of jihadists. Rached Ghannouchi’s strategy. Nabil Karoui, leader of the liberal Qalb Tounes, saying Karoui was a defeat” for Ennahda and Ghan- , who has served Ghannouchi, who is also parliament Qalb Tounes party, declared before “overshadowed by suspicions of cor- nouchi. as prime minister since 2016 and was speaker, was leading an Ennahda the vote: “Ennahda becomes an ogre ruption.” However, it convinced Qalb The delay in forming a government a losing candidate in the presidential drive to build decisive control over and wants to monopolise everything Tounes to support Ghannouchi, 78, adds to concerns about economic in- election, is to continue his role in a executive and legislative powers, and we will not allow that to hap- in the vote for speaker last Novem- stability. The unemployment rate is caretaker capacity until a new gov- despite hostility of a diverse coali- pen.” ber. more than 15% nationally and is as ernment is appointed. tion of parliament members and a “Ennahda has 25% of the seats in Ghannouchi met with Karoui a high as 30% in some regions. Infla- growing rift with Tunisian Presi- the parliament and it behaves like few hours before the vote on the pro- tion remains high, the country’s cur- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly dent Kais Saied. it has 80%,” he added. “It won the posed government. rency is weak and successive govern- correspondent in Tunis. moves to stop contraband from Ceuta

Saad Guerraoui Smuggling activities across Tarajal toms of Morocco, told parliament Moroccan regions neighbouring the not be opened again to the passage II have been suspended since Oc- that smuggled goods from Ceuta Spanish enclaves thrived because of of goods, Moroccan authorities said. tober 9, paralysing the flow of con- and Melilla into Morocco were val- the absence of industries that could Some 12,000-15,000 porters, Casablanca traband into Morocco. The Spanish ued at $1.2 billion-$1.6 billion. generate jobs. mostly women, were said to carry newspaper warned that the situation Former Moroccan Customs Direc- “There is an emigration from contraband daily between Ceuta and orocco is trying to stop was affecting many people and that tor Lotfi Abourizk said Morocco’s these two regions because of the Morocco and 3,000-5,000 did so be- the flow of smuggled it had shown its first consequences move was aimed at protecting its in- absence of agricultural and other tween Melilla and Morocco, a Span- goods from the Spanish with dismissals. Reports of ship dustrial sector from goods smuggled industrial activities. This is why the ish government estimate from May M enclaves of Ceuta and owners at Ceuta port firing workers into the country. Moroccan authorities are turning 2017 stated. Melilla, which is said to total hun- have emerged in Spanish media. “Morocco’s [industrial sector] is a blind eye on illegal smuggling, to The scenes of “mule” women dreds of millions of dollars. Ceuta annually exports $780 mil- under threat from goods illegally preserve the population,” he said. — also known as porters — carry- Moroccan authorities’ operation lion in goods to Morocco, an es- smuggled from the two Spanish en- About 40% of the porters who ing heavy loads across the border against of smuggling across the bor- timate by Guillermo Martinez, a claves, which adversely affects local migrated from southern and rural between the Spanish enclaves and der with Ceuta started in October, former municipal councillor for fi- manufacturers through unfair com- areas of Morocco to work in the por- Morocco and their mistreatment by dealing a heavy economic blow to nance, stated. Last February, Nabil petition,” he said. tage have returned to their home the Spanish and Moroccan Customs both the Spanish enclave and nearby Lakhdar, director-general of Cus- The expert said the smuggling in after hearing that Tarajal II would made headlines. northern Moroccan cities. In January 2018, two women died “There are many symptoms that in a stampede at the Tarajal II cross- Morocco has terminated the phe- ing. The El Tarajal Business Asso- nomenon of portage,” Abdelmalik ciation proposed wheelbarrows as Mohamed, president of the Asso- a solution to lessening the risk of ciation of Residents in Ceuta, told El stampedes following the incident. Confidencial. A witness told The Arab Weekly there was a long queue at the Mo- Smuggled goods from roccan border with Ceuta of people, Ceuta and Melilla into mainly porters, trying to make it to Morocco are valued at $1.2 the Spanish enclave to transport billion-$1.6 billion. goods on foot into Morocco. In January 2019, Moroccan Min- Human rights groups repeat- ister of General Affairs and Public edly denounced the exploitation Governance Lahcen Daoudi told par- of women in illegal trade, call- liament that the government want- ing on both countries to alleviate ed to end smuggling in northern and their suffering. north-eastern Morocco and provide Abourizk emphasised the health decent jobs for local citizens. risk of smuggled goods into Moroc- “Ceuta is dying. It is doing so lit- co. tle by little. It is disfiguring,” wrote “Seizures have shown that lots of El Faro de Ceuta in December. “The outdated food products have their suspension of the portage because expiry dates changed and smug- of the closure of the Tarajal II (bor- gled into Morocco, which presents a der crossing) that the (Moroccan) grave health risk to our consumers,” government delegation initially or- he said. dered and the blockade that is being applied at the border has meant the Saad Guerraoui is a contributor last straw for a very dangerous situ- Heavy loads. Female Moroccan porters use trolleys to transport bundles of goods across Tarajal II to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb ation.” border from Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta into Morocco. (AFP) issues. 6 January 12, 2020 Opinion

Editorial De-escalation between Iran and the US

ensions seem to have receded between Washington and Tehran after the rapid escalation following the killing of Iranian al-Quds com- mander Qassem Soleimani in an attack with a US military drone. In retaliation, Iran fired 16 short- Trange ballistic missiles, some of which landed in a US base in Erbil. However, Tehran made sure the attack caused no casualties or major damage to avoid an all-out war it could not afford. “With the attacks, Tehran signalled its capacity and readiness to respond to US attacks, thus saving face, and yet they have been well targeted to avoid fatalities and thus avoid provoking Trump’s reaction,” said Annalisa Perteghella of the Institute for International Political Studies in Milan. US President Donald Trump seized on the outcome of the raid to declare victory but stopped © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly short of military action. “Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world,” he said while announc- Nasrallah’s irresponsible ing new economic sanctions against Tehran. De-escalation was welcomed by both sides of the political aisle in the United States. US Senator moves harm Lebanon Robert Menendez, a Democrat and staunch critic of the US president, welcomed Trump’s attitude. Khairallah Khairallah “At the end of the day, the president’s speech, knowing him, is about as de-escalatory as it gets,” Except for , the head of the caretaker government, senior he said. Lebanese officials have not shown any sense of responsibility. Senator Rand Paul, a Republican, said he was “pleased that President Trump has pulled back and taken the preferred path of no further military hat is more experience, the son-in-law of through. There was no sense of action.” dangerous Lebanese President Michel understanding that it is not in De-escalation was welcomed by Iran’s neigh- than Hezbol- Aoun and minister of foreign the interest of the country to ap- bours that have always cherished peace and lah Secre- affairs in the outgoing cabinet. pear to be one of Iran’s satellites, stability as the right environment for them to tary-Gen- The content and tone of Nas- especially within the context of

pursue their development goals. eral Hassan rallah’s speech were expected, the confrontation between the WNasrallah’s call to kick out US given the man’s special bond United States and Iran. Facing mounting US pressures, Tehran has with Iran and Soleimani and attempted endlessly to destabilise the region forces from the entire Middle Besides, any Lebanese knows East in retaliation for killing Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon that Iran has done nothing for through endless provocations. The politics of Iranian Major-General Qassem and the region. Nasrallah did Lebanon other than bring in brinkmanship allowed the rulers of Tehran to Soleimani? not hide his strong relationship weapons and sectarian strife. satisfy their “revolutionary” constituencies and The biggest danger in the with the commander of al-Quds For the American side, suffice it divert the attention of an increasingly unhappy situation is the indifference that Force of the Islamic Revolution- to say that it built the American population from domestic woes to outside threats. those in charge of the Hezbollah ary Guard Corps (IRGC). Like- University in Beirut. The Gulf region, although the main target of era in Lebanon show towards wise, he has never hidden that We must ask ourselves who, Iran’s attacks by proxy, seemed cautiously relieved the rapid deterioration of Leba- he was a “soldier” in the army of besides the United States and that a wider deflagration was avoided. UAE nese economy. the Iranian velayat-e faqih. That the international financial Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash There doesn’t appear to be a is to say, in Iranian Supreme institutions under its influence, said: “De-escalation is both wise and necessary. A party in Lebanon with the cour- Leader Ali Khamenei’s army. can have a significant effect in political path towards stability must follow.” age of shouldering the burden This is not new because helping the Lebanese economy Iraq, a country that has long suffered from war, of its responsibilities and absorb everybody has known for quite and Lebanese banks so the latter was wary of being a battleground for Iran and the the meaning of the deep eco- some time that the Lebanese won’t lose their crucial role if the United States. De-escalation was hence welcomed. nomic crisis and its repercus- Hezbollah is nothing but a status quo persists. Influential Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called sions, including Lebanese banks brigade in the IRGC. When Actions of the top-level Leba- on Iraqi factions “to be deliberate, patient and not seizing the deposits, large and Soleimani travelled to Beirut or nese authorities are incompat- to start military actions.” small, of Lebanese citizens and any other part of Lebanon, he ible with Lebanon’s interests, Still, there are questions about the future. Iran’s foreign nationals. was inspecting friendly forces given the major collapse the policies, doctrines and power balances are It is an unprecedented attack operating within the same ideo- country is facing. Some rightly unchanged. Its leaders and some proxies, such as on Lebanon, first and foremost, logical and political framework say that the collapse has already ’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and some and an outrageous trampling of as al-Quds Force. taken place — starting with the of Iraq’s Shia militias, are making threats and people’s rights. This is because It was not surprising that Nas- day Lebanese banks stopped engaging in bellicose rhetoric. banks and the banking system rallah spoke of his concept of providing Lebanese and foreign The killing of Soleimani after the suspected in Lebanon and people’s trust “fair retribution” in response to currencies to their clients. involvement of Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi proxy in them have been one of the the assassination of Soleimani This is taking place without militia of Iran, in the attack on a US military base in pillars that ensure the country’s and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, anyone asking about all the time Iraq, deprived Iran the cover of plausible deniabil- survival. the deputy commander of the wasted to then come up with a ity. Evidence of the level of the Popular Mobilisation Forces lightweight prime minister with Any attack on US interests would put Iran on a political class’s indifference in Iraq. Of course, Nasrallah’s no experience or relations. collision course with the United States using towards dangers inherent to the concept, which calls for “remov- Can a government formed by conventional weapons, a course Tehran seems situation in Lebanon is appoint- ing American forces from the the ruling elite, used to deciding intent on avoiding. Its military capabilities are no ing Hassan Diab, who does not whole of our region,” is not things based on the same old match to those of America and its Western allies. have any qualifications to form about Lebanon’s interest. The quota system, take any step that Tehran’s military and security posture is based a new government. Lebanese economy and the would lead to a change in the US more on asymmetrical warfare and its terrorist Perhaps the first thing the livelihoods of the Lebanese position on Lebanon or to restor- derivatives rather than conventional confronta- new government needs is people are absolutely of no con- ing the bridges with the usual tion. Most of its attempts at destabilisation against independent individuals com- sequence to Hezbollah. All that donor Arab countries? its neighbours have been carried out through petent in the field they will be matters is that Hezbollah and its What are the alternatives to missiles and drone attacks with the help of proxies overseeing. Likewise, such a secretary-general carry out the the United States, Europe and while denying any direct involved. government needs a president Iranian agenda. the Arab countries that are able Iran’s programmes for the development of who would provide the political This agenda must be imple- to help Lebanon, provided it ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons remain a cover for Lebanon, especially mented regardless of the nature returns to its former status as a major worry for its regional neighbours and the now that it has isolated itself of the relationship between his true member of the Arab League international community. from its Arab environment. This party’s militia, or shall we say and not Iran’s voice in the meet- It remains to be seen if Iran’s bluster is meant means that any head of the new his militia-party, and al-Quds ings of the Arab League Council? just to let off steam domestically or if it would be government in Lebanon must Force, whether this relationship In the absence of any convinc- followed with violent actions against the United have a network of Arab and in- is limited to mere coordination ing answer to this question, States. Abdollah Araghi, an Islamic Revolutionary ternational relations, in addition between two parties affiliated except for Hezbollah’s fantasies Guard Corps commander, was quoted as saying to easy access to Washington. with Iran and which fight on the about China or the Iraqi market, Iran would take “harsher revenge soon.” It’s true that Diab was vice- same side in the several wars in Lebanon appears on its way to a The United States, as well as Arab Gulf countries, president of the American the region or represents much real catastrophe. University in Beirut but does Lebanon punished itself when are not letting down their guard. more than that. that qualify him for a position in Except for Saad Hariri, the senior officials decided to join Iran must worry about the simmering unhappi- which he would be officially and head of the caretaker govern- the axis of resistance, which ness of its population. Street protests have predict- formally welcomed in any Arab ment, senior Lebanese officials meant they exposed Lebanon ably subsided since the Soleimani killing but the or European capital or Washing- have not shown any sense of and jeopardised the future of downing of a civilian Ukrainian airliner could be ton in a capacity other than as a responsibility, at least with re- each and every Lebanese. another catalyst for unhappiness if Tehran’s participant in an academic con- spect to protecting Lebanon and responsibility in the crash, which has caused the ference? If you think it wouldn’t enabling it to overcome the diffi- Khairallah Khairallah is a loss of scores of Iranian lives, is proven. happen, think of Gebran Bassil’s cult and crucial stage it is going Lebanese writer. January 12, 2020 7 Opinion The rumours of World War III Published by Al Arab were wildly exaggerated Publishing House

James Snell Publisher A great deal of the speculation that a third world and Group Executive Editor war was imminent began online. Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD Editor-in-Chief he strike was violent, to miss, with its targets being tan’s peshmerga, said: “People from fossil fuels,” de Bretton- decisive and un- large bases with much empty all too easy look at the ‘status Gordon said. Oussama Romdhani expected but soon space. Iran let the Iraqi president quo ante’ and head to anecdotes The threats of a response from the rumours, at first know of the attacks ahead about the first and second Gulf Iran through its proxy forces Managing Editor discounted, were of time, information he duly wars to predict a third conflict in remain significant as “Iran and confirmed that, passed on. the region or even the globe.” its proxies are undoubtedly be- Iman Zayat Tearly January 3 in Iraq, two of Although Iran’s network of Those parallels were flawed, hind most terror in the Gulf and Deputy Managing Editor the United States’ enemies were proxies is extensive — and it has he said. beyond and it is the time to rein dead. both forms in retaliating with “Fundamentally, the US vastly them in. Tehran is well aware of and Online Editor Since the assassination of these groups and increasingly overmatches Iran militarily and this and is unlikely to commit Mamoon Alabbasi Qassem Soleimani, the leader acknowledging their direct ties all its friends and allies. This is national suicide in the face of of the Islamic Revolutionary to Tehran — Iran-affiliated a battle that Iran can never win overwhelming power. Tehran Guard Corps’ al-Quds Force, and groups have posted public state- and they know it.” will no doubt continue to goad Senior Editor Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who ments supporting the Iranian Some of the comedy and activ- the West through terror rather John Hendel was head of the Iran-sponsored foreign minister’s claim to have ism seemed to fixate on Iran as a than war unless decisively Hezbollah Brigades, there have concluded retaliatory action. nuclear state capable of destroy- engaged by the West, which I been more deaths, directly and A great deal of the speculation ing the United States. The same believe is unlikely,” de Bretton- Chief Copy Editor indirectly. that a third world war was im- thing is suggested every time Gordon added. Richard Pretorius At least 56 people were killed minent began online, where it the United States and Russia fall Beyond all this talk lie real by the weight of the crowds at was both an instinctive reaction out. Nuclear war is said to be lives and real wars. In northern Copy Editors Soleimani’s funeral. Iran fired of the uninformed or partisan on the horizon. It has failed to Syria, the forces of Russia and Stephen Quillen missiles at bases housing foreign and something of an easy joke materialise. the regime of Bashar Assad — Kyle Arensdorf forces in Iraq, which did not kill for those looking to make light of “[Iran’s] nuclear programme supported by Iran and its prox- any foreigners (despite Iranian a situation they didn’t necessar- is still years from providing a ies — continue to attack Idlib claims to the contrary) but look ily understand but could derive viable weapon and no doubt the province and its surroundings. Gulf Section Editor to have killed or injured Iraqis. comedy from in any case. Israelis would take it out long There are aerial attacks almost Mohammed Alkhereiji It seems likely that a Ukraine For those who meant what before it got near viability, as every day. International Airlines plane, they said, Hamish de Bretton- they did to the Syrians in 2007. Recent offensives have caused Society and Travel which crashed shortly after tak- Gordon, a former British Army There is not the oil leverage hundreds of thousands to seek Sections Editor ing off from Tehran, at the cost officer who works with medical there was even a few years ago, to flee the path of the advances. Samar Kadi of 176 lives, was shot down by charities in Syria and has served with the US self-sufficient and “My most immediate concern Russian air defences in Iranian as an adviser for Iraqi Kurdis- most moving, if slowly away is what is happening in Idlib in Senior Correspondents hands. Syria,” said de Bretton-Gordon. In the United States, members “Assad, supported by Iran and Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) of the US Congress spent a week Russia, is stepping up attacks Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) publicly fearing the outbreak of to overrun this final resisting global conflict before attempting province under the smokescreen Regular Columnists to restrict the president’s capac- of Soleimani. The most pressing Rashmee Roshan Lall ity to order new fighting by pass- issue with this is that the UN Claude Salhani ing a War Powers resolution. mandate for cross-border hu- The picture described by manitarian aid runs out on Janu- Yavuz Baydar these events could be that of a ary 10 after the Russian veto. world approaching global war “Not only are the 3 million Correspondents — something that was predicted civilians, trapped with the re- and even eagerly anticipated maining jihadists, being bombed Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) by many at the beginning of the into oblivion, they will soon be Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) week. starved as well. That did not happen. Indeed, “I understand why most Roua Khlifi (Tunis) the nature of the events showed Western and regional countries that global war was never a like- just want the war in Syria over, Chief Designer ly consequence of Soleimani’s but their steadfast resolve to do Marwen el-Hmedi assassination and that those ex- nothing will lead thousands of pecting its outbreak were either innocent civilian deaths before Designers incorrect or palpably dishonest that happens.” in doing so. Ibrahim Ben Bechir When Iran launched missiles No one wants a war. People participate in a protest in Times Square in James Snell is a British Hanen Jebali into Iraq, it is thought, it did so New York City against military conflict with Iran, January 8. (AFP) journalist.

Contact editor at: Carlos Ghosn could be bad news for Lebanon [email protected]

Rashmee Roshan Lall

Beirut has not expressed an opinion about the four serious Al Arab Publishing House charges filed against Ghosn by Tokyo prosecutors. Quadrant Building 177-179 Hammersmith Road he world is con- Harbour attacks. ecutors. Two are for allegedly — and it has a vote on the board London W6 8BS sumed by events in Ghosn called out Brazil and understating his pay by more of the International Monetary and about Iran and France — whose citizenship he than $80 million over an 8-year Fund (IMF). Lebanon needs the Iraq, as well as US holds, along with that of Leba- period. He is also alleged to IMF and Japan. President Donald non — for being insufficiently have transferred nearly $15 mil- Ghosn probably adds little to Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 Trump’s fitful pro- helpful to him during his legal lion from a Nissan subsidiary Lebanon’s storied international Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 Tnouncements on foreign policy, troubles. However, when he account to one held by a Saudi narrative. He suggests sleazy but any leftover attention will mentioned Lebanon, it was in friend’s company and to have privilege and impunity at a surely centre on Carlos Ghosn warm and appreciative tones. diverted $5 million from Nissan time the world seeks overdue and, by extension, Lebanon. “I am ready to stay a long time to companies with ties to him political, fiscal and economic US Publisher: Much of the attention for in Lebanon,” Ghosn said about and his family. overhaul in Lebanon. Ghosn and Lebanon won’t be the country his parents left for Ghosn could be a liability for Ghosn also appears as a The Arab Weekly USA LLC. flattering, especially after the Brazil. He denied that he had any country that provided him troubling black mark on the [email protected] political ambitions but offered shelter if any of the charges extraordinary news conference generally shiny story of the [email protected] January 8 in Beirut by the man to “put my experience at the against him were proved to be Lebanese diaspora, which regarded the world’s most service of Lebanon” if asked. true. Even if they aren’t, Ghosn includes Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Tel: 248-679-6624 famous fugitive. Might he be asked? might be a unique liability for author of “The Black Swan” and Over several hours, the for- A few years ago, Ghosn was Lebanon. “Antifragile,” Mexican tycoon mer boss of the Nissan-Renault- touted in some quarters as a The country is arguably in Carlos Slim, actress Salma Mitsubishi automotive alliance possible . its most precarious position Hayek, singer Shakira, the late ranted against Japan’s allegedly Nothing less seemed worthy since the end of its civil war 30 heart surgeon Michael DeBakey, inhumane system of justice of the legendary businessman years ago. Roiled by instability, fashion designer Elie Saab, and the Japanese people’s al- whose image Lebanon had put Lebanon has been without a former Cal Tech Vice-President Subscription & Advertising: leged cunning and secrecy. He on a postage stamp. government for months. It faces Charles Elachi and Paul Orfalea, [email protected] insisted that Japanese charges Even after his arrest in Japan popular, if somewhat inchoate, who founded the copy-and- Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 of financial misconduct against in 2018, the Lebanese govern- public protests against misgov- print services company Kinko’s. him were a “conspiracy” and ment stood solidly by Ghosn. ernance, political cronyism and Some might say Ghosn is giv- accused the Japanese govern- That has continued, until now. corruption. The very state itself ing Lebanon a bad reputation at Mohamed Al Mufti ment — but not Japanese Prime He is a wanted man with an could collapse in a massive a time that it cannot afford it. Marketing & Advertising Interpol Red Notice attached to debt-fuelled crash that would Minister Shinzo Abe — of collud- Manager ing in the alleged plot to remove his name. see Beirut default on $88 billion Rashmee Roshan Lall is a him as chairman of the world’s However, Beirut has not of public borrowing. columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 second-biggest carmaker. expressed an opinion about Japan gives Lebanon millions Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk Ghosn provocatively compared the four serious charges filed of dollars in aid each year — in www.rashmee.com and she is the alleged plot to the Pearl against Ghosn by Tokyo pros- 2017 it was at least $18 million on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 January 12, 2020 Viewpoint Iraq International media zoom away from protests in Iraq

“This is why many of us have taken it upon ourselves to dis- seminate the facts,” he said. Nazli Tarzi Indifference is only one face of the reporting about Iraq. The other is falsification. eyond sloganeering Important distinctions be- and racy takes on tween paramilitaries and protest- the death of Iranian ers are often collapsed. The first Major-General Qas- instance of this was the coloured sem Soleimani, the coverage of the PMF’s storming world has put Iraqi of the Green Zone, site of the Bvoices and continuing protests United States’ largest embassy. on mute. The second occurred during The confrontation between militia-led processions after Tehran and Washington and the Soleimani’s death. Army fa- attention it commands pushed tigues, slogans and flags offered renewed violence by Iran- indispensable clues that main- aligned militias against Iraqi stream reporting chose to ignore, protesters out of sight. As the blurring the lines between war of words rages, the memory civilians and armed combatants of Iraq’s 600 slain citizens grows where the former is killing the more distant. latter. Across protest sites from “Tahrir protesters are modest Haboubi in Nasiriya, Tahrir in folk. They are not media-starved Baghdad and in Basra, balaclava- and the attention they receive clad men fired on demonstrators or don’t is insignificant,” Ahmad and torched tents. The death toll said. He shared news releases activists cited, uncorroborated issued from Tahrir that make by official sources, was between this plain to see. As international three and eight. Security person- headlines obsess over the spat nel fled as sounds of flying bullets between the United States and were recorded on mobile phones. Iran, Tahrir protesters and their “We also lost men in Basra, counterparts across other prov- Still defiant. University students attend a protest against US and Iran interventions, in Basra, people I knew personally,” inces have not lost sight of their January 8. (Reuters) 28-year-old Hasan said. “Several objectives. dozens more were injured.” Topping their list of demands The renewed assault on peace- is the nomination of an inde- ful masses came after commem- pendent prime minister, far Iraq cannot risk alienating orative marches led by armed removed from the existing equi- men affiliated to what Hasan de- librium. scribed as “Iran-loyalists in Iraq’s “In the name of all provinces Al-Hashed al Shaabi,” otherwise and protesters, we unanimously the US for the sake of Iran known as the Popular Mobilisa- reject the attempt to reinstate tion Forces (PMF). Adel Abdul-Mahdi as prime min- ister,” a recent statement read. parliamentarians to postpone as the Development Fund Condemnation fell squarely on the vote; otherwise it would for Iraq (DFI) and enjoyed The Hollywood- Iraq’s corrupt ruling class “ena- Tallha be seen as a “vote of the Shias” certain protections from the US bled by the muhasasa system Abdulrazaq and did not represent the administration that prevented coloured view of Iraq that has plundered all the wealth other major ethno-sectarian creditors from cashing in on as democratic or this country has to offer. This is demographics. Iraqi debt, which is around $70 what brought us to this point,” fter the US drone Despite being one of Iran’s billion. sovereign has been the statement concluded. strike that killed main establishment men in Iraqi oil sales largely fund shattered by the While the media focus on infamous Iranian Iraq, Halbousi spoke the truth. the DFI and monies contained efforts and sacrifices the risk of war that the US-Iran Islamic Revolution- Without a national consensus, in the DFI pay the salaries of showdown may ignite in Iraq, ary Guard Corps any unilateral decision making civil servants, infrastructure made by Iraqis. “few acknowledged the move- Major-General Qas- by one ethnic or sectarian programmes and defence ment’s accomplishments” and semA Soleimani, Tehran’s allies group over another to serve the procurement. They were held responsible “what it set in motion,” Ahmad in Baghdad have been making interests of a third-party power Should Iraq burn bridges with by protesters of having helped said. As a colonial battle scape, noises about forcing the United would lead Iraq into a spiral the United States, US President orchestrate the death of 600 Ahmad and Hasan agree that States to depart from Iraq once of division and violence even Donald Trump has threatened demonstrators since protests international outrage is least and for all. worse than it already suffers. to strike back with a sanctions began October 1. Local media interested in Iraqi lives. In an extraordinary session Iraqi politicians appear to regime that would make the identified the men as members Iraqis are not united in their of parliament January 5, Iraqi be wilfully ignoring the sheer ones on Iran look like a walk in of the Tehran-backed Kata’ib outrage against the danger- lawmakers carrying placards of weight and power of the United the park. Hezbollah militia. ous phase of hostilities that Soleimani as well as Iraqi Shia States. Ironically, it is this Trump will undoubtedly be The fear that has taken hold is the United States and Iran have jihadist leader Abu Mahdi al- same political class that was aware that his administration “dimming the protest momen- dragged Iraq into, Ahmad said. Muhandis, who was also killed empowered by the Americans controls Iraq’s purse strings and tum,” Hasan said, “but young- It is widely held, as protesters by the United States, backed a that is seeking to oust the part of the sanctions regime the sters remain resolute, unshaken vocalised for the past 100 days, government motion calling for United States from Iraq to please United States will likely slap by events” following Soleimani’s that the spoils system trans- the expulsion of US forces. Iran. Baghdad with should it continue assassination. formed the population of one of This decision could have Once they had won the to be belligerent towards the “It [the assassination] changes the world’s richest countries into catastrophic decisions for Iraq, war on behalf of this newly American presence there would very little as far as the protest one of the poorest. not least because the country minted political elite and had be to cut all public sector movement is concerned,” Bagh- Iraq’s resources, like low- may position itself against the overthrown the former regime salaries. dad activist Ahmad said. In a hanging fruit, have been plucked world’s foremost superpower, of Iraqi President Saddam Considering the Iraqi public nod to these sentiments, Hassan, by the United States and Iran something that did not work out Hussein, they proceeded to sector is about half the labour from Basra, agreed that “the ef- and the sentiment across protest so well the first time. set up checks and balances to force, the effects on the Iraqi fect is minimal,” stressing that, camps contending with uninter- The parliamentary vote ensure Iraqis played ball with population will be catastrophic. state-embedded actors placed rupted violence and pressure was attended only by Shia the United States. Among these This is, of course, not to forget targets on civilians they regard to withdraw from state forces is lawmakers and boycotted by were financial mechanisms by bringing back painful memories as the enemy. The protests have “no to America and no to Iran” as everyone else, showing that which Iraq would be allowed to of medicine and food shortages become the biggest destabilising signs and slogans show and tell. neither Kurdish nor Sunni do business with the rest of the leading to the death of 500,000 threat to Iraq’s system of sectar- Protesters know better than to political forces supported the world. Iraqi children by 1996 with likely ian apportionment. muddy their objectives by taking decision and therefore there was Because of the calamitous many hundreds of thousands “The international commu- sides. Their loyalty is unques- no national consensus. sanctions regime that absolutely more by the time of the US-led nity’s indifference has been tionably towards their country. Parliament Speaker wrecked the Iraqi economy from invasion in 2003. consistent, now as much as Demands for a shakedown of the Mohammed al-Halbousi was the 1990-2003, Iraq did not have an It is therefore not in Iraq’s then,” Hassan said. The genera- muhasasa system and its rules only Sunni present and urged economic system to speak of. national interests to cut ties tion steering change in Iraq is remain unrelenting and subse- Despite being one of the richest with the United States and to too young to recall the cover of quent months will likely witness countries in the world in terms put itself against Washington for legitimacy Western outlets pro- more general strikes and demon- It is not in Iraq’s of oil reserves, Iraqis found the sake of placating or pleasing vided to the Bush administration strations until demands are met. themselves among the poorest Iran. This is not about being and its unlawful war but they are Even if the media willingly or national interests to and most destitute people in the pro-United States and anti-Iran; aware of self-serving reporting inadvertently turn off the lights cut ties with the Middle East. it is about being pro-Iraq and that glosses over the haemor- on Iraqi protests, the Hollywood- United States and to The new Iraqi regime signed putting the interests of the Iraqi rhaging of Iraqi lives. coloured view of Iraq as demo- agreements with the US people first. Ahmad in Baghdad said that, cratic or sovereign has been shat- put itself against government that would allow if media attention turns away tered by the efforts and sacrifices Washington for the Washington to open bank Tallha Abdulrazaq is a from a movement having to walk made by Iraqis. accounts for the Iraqi state researcher at the University of a razor-thin tight wire, “it could sake of placating or in the US Federal Reserve. Exeter’s Strategy and Security weaken the force of the revolu- Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly pleasing Iran. This account became known Institute in England. tion.” correspondent in London. January 12, 2020 9 News & Analysis Gulf As US and Iran pull back from brink, Riyadh prepares for all scenarios

Mohammed Alkhereiji Mahdi said he and the Saudi crown prince discussed the “difficult situation Iraq and the region are London going through and exchanged viewpoints about the expected re- s the prospect of war be- percussions.” tween Iran and the United Saudi Arabia sent Deputy De- States receded since the fence Minister Prince Khalid bin A killing of Iranian al-Quds Salman to the United States and Force commander Qassem Soleim- the for talks to de- ani, Gulf countries worked to de- escalate tensions in the region. fuse tensions while preparing for While in Washington, Prince all possible scenarios. Khalid met with US President Don- Iraqi President ’s ald Trump, Secretary of State Mike A call for unity. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan leads the meeting of the Foreign Ministers website said he received a call from Pompeo, Secretary of Defence of Arab and African countries bordering the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, in Riyadh, January 6. (SPA) Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Mark Esper and the US national se- Al Saud, during which the king curity adviser Robert O’Brien. stressed the need for Iraq to steer Prince Khalid talked with British clear of international disputes and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and ports Trump’s “maximum pres- to the , Saudi Foreign ministers from Saudi for Baghdad not to make itself a David Quarrey, international affairs sure” campaign of economic sanc- Arabia and Norway near the Emira- Arabia, Egypt, , Sudan, place for settling scores. adviser and deputy national secu- tions against Iran, believing it is ti port of Fujairah were targeted in Yemen, Eritrea, and Dji- rity adviser to British Prime Minis- “the best among alternatives be- what the United Arab Emirates de- bouti signed a charter January 6 in ter Boris Johnson, during a stop in cause the other option is war and scribed as a “sabotage attack.” That Riyadh establishing the Council of Foreign ministers from Red London. nobody wants war.” was followed in June by attacks on Arab and African Coastal States of Sea coastal countries met to “Saudi Arabia’s key issue and the Gulf Cooperation Council mem- two tankers in the Gulf of Oman the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to establish a new regional key wish is to de-escalate,” Mo- bers are wary that military clashes near the Strait of Hormuz. protect maritime routes. organisation. hammed al-Sulaimi, chairman of between the United States and Investigations implicated Iran “The importance of our meeting the Rasanah think-tank in Riyadh, Iran could destabilise the region, but Tehran denied involvement, today comes at this critical stage King Salman pointed out the im- told the Wall Street Journal. particularly because the countries even as it threatened to close the in which we need to expedite the portance of self-restraint, the state- “We know the Iranians are an- are within range of Iranian ballistic Strait of Hormuz. pace of our countries’ cooperation ment added. In a call with Iraq’s gry but, over time, they may think missiles. With the heightened tensions be- and consolidate our capabilities in caretaker Prime Minister Adel calmly and rationally and realise Arsenals held by Tehran’s prox- tween Washington and Iran, Saudi order to confront any risks or chal- Abdul-Mahdi, Saudi Crown Prince the dangers of any hard response ies in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are state-backed oil tanker giant Bahri lenges facing our region, as well as Mohammed bin Salman bin Ab- against the Americans, against also concerns. Iran is suspected of suspended shipments through the to protect the security of the Red dulaziz called for “efforts to calm their interests or against the re- supplying proxies with missiles Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Sea and the Gulf of Aden,” Saudi the situation.” gion.” and drones. Journal reported, with other major Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin On his Facebook page, Abdul- Sulaimi said Saudi Arabia sup- Last May, four ships belonging shippers expected to follow suit. Farhan said. Viewpoint Risks but also opportunities for Saudi Arabia amid heightened Gulf tensions

However, despite Riyadh’s involved in plotting violent acts measured reaction, there is no across the region is good news, doubt that Soleimani’s death it entails risks, particularly for Iman Zayat lifted a heavy burden from its Saudi Arabia and neighbouring shoulders. Saudi Arabia, perhaps countries. more than any other country, Those countries could fall he beginning of 2020 has suffered from the designs victim to drone and missile has hardly been quiet of the military chief who was attacks, either by Iran or one for Saudi Arabia and the architect of Iran’s disruptive of its proxies. Saudi Arabia its Arab Gulf allies. foreign policy across the region. knows that, if all-out war does Fallout from the At the helm of al-Quds Force, break out, it would be in the United States’ killing Soleimani built a network of crossfire. This explains why it Tof Qassem Soleimani, leader pro-Iran militias throughout the is attempting to bring down the of Iran’s al-Quds Force, posed region and handpicked people pressure. serious challenges for the Arab who would be most militarily While Saudi Arabia remains Gulf and the broader region and loyal to Tehran. As a result, the in favour of clipping Iran’s has driven concerns of a widening Islamic Revolutionary Guard wings, it is prioritising national conflict. Corps developed a network of security. That policy shift began Saudi Arabia, the United Arab proxies directly under its control. about a month ago when reports Emirates and have During this time, the number emerged that Riyadh was avoided direct involvement in of Iran-backed terrorists surged engaging in indirect talks with the dispute. They steered clear even in Bahrain, leading to Tehran and having peace talks Pragmatic approach. Saudi Deputy Defence Minister Prince of actions that could escalate violent attacks against security with the Houthis. Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz arrives at the US Department the situation and prompt Iran to forces and civilians. The more There is a delicate balance to of State for a meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in pursue open conflict or disrupt dramatic development came maintain but Saudi Arabia seems Washington, January 6. (AFP) the flow of oil through the vital in Yemen, from where Iran- satisfied with the policy, which gateway, the Strait of Hormuz. backed Houthi rebels attacked oil has led to a decline in attacks devising a more pragmatic by Washington’s commitment Riyadh denied having been installations in Saudi Arabia. against it and its allies. approach to regional challenges to confronting Tehran and its consulted by the United States While the Houthis claimed to Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia and showing the world that proxies. prior to the strike on Soleimani be acting on their own, Riyadh is not ready to give up its role Saudi Arabia is an advocate of Despite possible repercussions and Saudi King Salman bin provided evidence that the as a regional heavyweight and, peace, not war. of Soleimani’s killing, Saudis Abdulaziz Al Saud spoke of the attacks were planned, prepared to effectively deal with the Saudi Deputy Defence Minister know that their ally in the White need for reduced tensions in a and executed under Iran’s aftermath of Soleimani’s killing, Prince Khalid bin Salman bin House is more aware than ever of phone conversation with Iraqi command. These revelations it knows it is important to Abdulaziz took steps in that the threat posed by Iran. Perhaps President Barham Salih. exposed the nature of Iran’s maintain, if not strengthen, its direction during a January 6 trip even better, Trump now takes missions through its proxies alliance with Washington. to Washington during which Tehran’s destabilising activities in Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere. What is the best way for the he met with Trump and British personally. There is a delicate Tehran no longer has the luxury kingdom to proceed? Defence Minister Ben Wallace to If the fallout is contained, of deniability that once helped it The Saudis have distanced discuss regional challenges. the US-Iran flare-up could be a balance to maintain avoid retaliation. themselves from the killing of After delivering a message from blessing in disguise for Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia Some would argue that US Soleimani, meaning that Iran has Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed paving the way for stronger US- seems satisfied with President Donald Trump has no excuse to target Riyadh or any bin Salman bin Abdulaziz to Saudi military cooperation and given Washington’s Arab Gulf neighbouring Gulf country in Trump, Prince Khalid reportedly arms sales, further isolating the a policy shift that allies a precious gift by ordering retaliation. discussed issues such as stability regime in Tehran and ending its has led to a decline the killing of Soleimani but that Riyadh can pursue three in the Middle East, oil prices, meddling in Arab affairs. assessment is too simplistic. strategic goals: cornering Tehran security and military matters. The in attacks against it While the elimination of and giving the mullahs no excuse visit shows that Riyadh wants to Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of and its allies. Soleimani or any Iranian official to target Arab Gulf countries, stay in the game and is reassured The Arab Weekly. 10 January 12, 2020 News & Analysis Egypt In meeting with Mediterranean countries, Egypt displays wariness over Turkish moves in Libya

Ahmed Megahid

Cairo

gypt, France, Greece and Cyprus warned against the destabilising effects of Turk- E ish policies in the Eastern Mediterranean and called for a nego- tiated settlement for the conflict in Libya. Following a January 8 meeting in Cairo, foreign ministers of the four countries expressed concern over what they described as Turkish “vio- lations” of international law. They said in a statement that they expected Turkey to act in a responsible manner and called on countries overlooking the Mediterranean Basin to cooperate to preserve its security and stability. Italy participated in the meeting in an advisory manner. The meeting came as Turkish Pres- ident Recep Tayyip Erdogan made good on his pledge to send troops to Libya at the request of the Tripoli- based Government of National Ac- cord (GNA). The GNA, which signed a security cooperation and maritime boundary delimitation agreements with Turkey last November, requested Turkish support on December 19. The Turkish Closing ranks. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry (C-R) and his counterparts Greece’s Nikos Dendias (L), France’s Jean-Yves Le Drian (C-L) parliament approved a bill for send- and Cyprus’s Nikos Christodoulides (R) speak to the press following a ministerial coordination meeting in Cairo, January 8. (AFP) ing troops to Libya on January 2. Egypt, Greece, France and Cyprus said the agreements the GNA signed The foreign ministers’ meeting The LNA, which controls most of conflict in Libya. chance” for bringing about a negoti- with Ankara were legally groundless was shortly after Russian President eastern, central and southern Libya, The foreign ministers meeting in ated solution to the conflict in Libya. and violated the 2015 Skhirat Agree- Vladimir Putin and Erdogan called recently changed the battleground Cairo called for finding a negotiated There is scepticism in Cairo about ment, which does not authorise GNA for a ceasefire in Libya as of January realities. On January 6, it captured settlement to the conflict in Libya, the ability of the international com- Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj to uni- 12. Putin and Erdogan, who back rival the strategic northern coastal city of one that includes all political actors munity to bring a quick end to the laterally sign international deals. parties in Libya, said in a statement Sirte and seized arms and equipment in the country and excludes all ex- conflict in Libya or to Turkey’s desta- “These agreements deal a strong following a meeting in Istanbul that Erdogan had sent to GNA militias in tremist militias, a direct reference to bilising role in the Eastern Mediterra- blow to efforts for reaching a peaceful the necessary measures would sup- the city. the militias operating under the GNA nean region. settlement to the conflict in Libya,” port the proposed ceasefire to stabi- LNA soldiers posted videos show- and receiving backing from Turkey. It “There is an urgent need for con- Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh lise conditions in Libya but did not ing the large bounty they seized in, was unclear whether Turkey would sensus among those moving the Shoukry said following the meeting. specify the measures. which included Turkish armoured accept this. strings in Libya,” said Nadia Helmy, a French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Russia and Turkey have troops in vehicles, tanks and rifles. The foreign ministers said a com- professor of political science at Beni Le Drian said the agreements nega- Libya, which makes them believe Two days later, the LNA extended prehensive political solution to the Suef University in Egypt. “This con- tively affect the interests of EU mem- they have a stake in deciding any fu- a no-fly zone to Tripoli, which is con- conflict in Libya would be the only sensus is not easy in the presence of bers and violate international law. He ture settlement for Libya. trolled by the GNA, and the north- way out of problems in the country. so many tracks for solving the crisis called on Turkey to stop militarising As Erdogan and Putin met in Is- western city of Misrata. The four countries expressed backing in Libya, apart from the Berlin pro- the Eastern Mediterranean, demon- tanbul, the two parties they backed In Cairo, there was no mention of of the efforts of UN Envoy Ghassan cess.” strate respect for international law in Libya — the Islamist militias of the the ceasefire proposed by Russia and Salame and the Berlin process. and engage in dialogue with other re- GNA and the Libyan National Army Turkey. The proposed ceasefire could Shoukry described the expected Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian gional partners. (LNA) — continued fighting. lead to a new track for settling the meeting on Libya in Berlin as one “last reporter in Cairo. Iran’s relationship with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood comes under renewed scrutiny

Ahmed Fouad Information about Soleimani’s re- and Sunni groups in Egypt highlights Aboul-Saad did not rule out that stan border. lationship with Muslim Brotherhood important points of Iran’s agenda for Iran provided support to both Sunni Also, relations with the Muslim in Egypt, despite being a Sunni or- the Middle East concerning the sup- and Shia organisations in some coun- Brotherhood created solid ground Cairo ganisation, gained credibility follow- port of militant groups, regardless of tries at the same time. He argues that for Iran to ally with Turkish Presi- ing revelations in recent years. their doctrines, as the main pillar of the apparent state of hostility be- dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who lthough the assassination In April 2017, the Egyptian Ministry Iranian policy. tween some of these organisations mourned Soleimani in an official of Qassem Soleimani, com- of Interior issued a statement about Iran’s relations with militants helped Iran achieve major benefits. statement January 4. mander of Iran’s al-Quds seizing weapons inscribed with the started by supporting Shia organi- Soleimani was assassinated after Force, in a US drone attack Persian language at the hideout of a sations in Afghanistan against the an alleged Iranian escalation. The A The Muslim Brotherhood in Iraq, caused increased tensions terrorist cell affiliated with the Mus- Soviet Union invasion (1979-89) by United States and Israel accused him between the United States, Iran, Iraq lim Brotherhood. funds and arms, as an alternative to may not be the only and the IRGC of being behind mis- and maybe the Arab Gulf region, it Questions emerged about the Mus- sending the Iranian Army, which was extremist Sunni group in siles attacks in December against US was an opportunity to reopen the lim Brotherhood’s relationship with weak after the Islamic Revolution, Egypt supported by IRGC. military and civilian sites in Iraq and man’s black box. Soleimani after the Egyptian judici- which resulted in the shah’s generals an attempt to storm the US Embassy Al Arabiya published a report Jan- ary accused Iran’s IRGC of storming imprisoned. The Sunni extremists, ISIS and al- in Baghdad. uary 4 — the day after he was killed — Egyptian prisons to free members of Despite the significant develop- Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of The Turkey-Iran-Brotherhood alli- on Soleimani’s infiltration into Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbol- ment of its armed forces, the Iranian al-Qaeda, operations in Syria, were ance raises questions about the syn- in 2013 and quoted an unnamed se- lah during the January 2011 protests. regime expanded support for mili- a pretext for the IRGC, under the su- chronisation between Iranian escala- curity source saying Soleimani pre- It is the same case in which Mo- tants in the Middle East, especially pervision of Soleimani, to intervene tion in Iraq and Erdogan’s attempts tended being an Iranian tourist who hamed Badie, the Brotherhood’s after increased US and European under the excuse of protecting the to escalate the situation in Libya by planned to visit holy places in Egypt. supreme guide, and other Brother- sanctions against Tehran over its nu- Shia Alawite regime of Bashar Assad sending Turkish forces to support The information was confirmed hood officials, including Morsi, were clear programme in 2006, sanctions and ensure its presence in the Medi- the Libyan Government of National by Mohsen el-Fahham, a former as- convicted in a primary court ruling that prevented Tehran from develop- terranean region, despite that Ira- Accord, affiliated with the Brother- sistant minister of Interior for State in 2015. Morsi died last June; a final ing legal military cooperation with nian foreign military ambitions until hood, against the Libyan National Security Service at Egyptian airports. court ruling, including sentences many countries. 2009 were limited to a naval base in Army (LNA). He said Soleimani met with Khairat of life in prison, was handed down Tarek Aboul-Saad, a researcher Eritrea. Have Turkey, Iran and the Muslim el-Shater, the Muslim Brotherhood’s against his co-defendants in Septem- specialising in Islamic movements, Relations with militants and Islam- Brotherhood planned to escalate in deputy supreme leader, to discuss ber. said the Shias’ weakness or absence ist groups have shielded Iran from Libya and Iraq at the same time to establishing an Egyptian Islamic The Muslim Brotherhood may not in some countries in which Iran seeks reckless attacks. disrupt the Egyptian Army as the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), be the only extremist Sunni group to create permanent influence, such In May 2014, an audio tape of Abu strongest supporter of LNA and Gulf subordinated directly by Egyptian in Egypt supported by IRGC. In April as Egypt, the Palestinian territories Mohamed al-Adnani, an ISIS spokes- countries as well, while the Gulf is President Muhammad Morsi to be re- 2017, accounts belonging to Sinai or Algeria, pushed Tehran, prag- man, was posted on social media in expected to be a target for Iran after sponsible for protecting him and the Province, the Islamic State (ISIS) matically beyond its Shia ideology, which he said ISIS had complied with Soleimani’s assassination, especially Muslim Brotherhood’s facilities and branch in Egypt, posted a video clip to support Sunni organisations such demands by al-Qaeda leader Ayman with the presence of US forces in headquarters and confronting police showing militants firing at Egyptian as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, al-Zawahiri not to target Iran in ex- Saudi Arabia? and armed forces when a conflict with soldiers with Iranian AM50 rifles. Hamas in Gaza and the Salvation change for Iranian supply lines to the Muslim Brotherhood occurred. The relationship between the IRGC Front in Algeria. militants through the Iran-Afghani- Ahmed Fouad is an Egyptian writer. January 12, 2020 11 News & Analysis Maghreb Tunisia wary of security fallout from Libya conflict

Lamine Ghanmi work of the United Nations and by other countries in the Arab region, including Tunisia, and beyond but Tunis these efforts are not reaching to the level of providing a peaceful solution unisia put its army and secu- to the conflict.” rity forces on high alert along Saied warned against terrorists its 400km border with Libya hiding among refugees and sneaking T against the risk of spillover into Tunisia. from the conflict there. “We have to prepare ourselves well Fighting between Islamist-domi- for all aspects of the effect of the con- nated forces of the UN-backed Gov- flict in Libya not only those related to ernment of National Accord (GNA) security and the possibility of a num- and Libyan National Army (LNA) has ber of terrorists infiltrating among intensified since Turkey announced the ranks of refugees but for repatria- it might send troops, mercenaries tion of a number of foreigners who and allied fighters from the Syr- will likely enter the territory,” he said. ian war to Libya to bolster the GNA Saied called on the international against the LNA offensive. community to help Tunisia cope with Mounting concerns. Tunisian President Kais Saied (R) meets with French Foreign Affairs Minister The LNA, led by Field-Marshal the expected influx of refugees. Jean-Yves Le Drian at the presidential palace in Carthage for talks on the Libyan crisis, January 9. (AFP) Khalifa Haftar, seized control of the “It is necessary to coordinate with strategic town of Sirte on January 6 the international community, name- and has advanced towards Misrata, ly the European Union, in order to foiled a plot involving raids on secu- thorities said. showing that Tunisia does not side the base of main Islamist militia. LNA provide the financial resources that rity outposts in the border town of Tunisia has been increasingly un- with any of the two camps in the General Khaled Mahjoub on January enable Tunisia to cope with the ef- Ben Guerdane. The authorities said able to project its traditional neutral- Libyan conflict,” said political writer 9 promised the Libyan people “a big fects of the situation in Libya,” he they seized 35 Turkey-made assault ity in the Libyan conflict with Sarraj Myriam Ben Zineb. “The head of and joyous surprise in the next two said. rifles January 5 near Beni Khedache. and the Libyan Islamist leaders fre- state must understand that receiving days.” The flare-up in Libya prompted The local Achourouk newspaper quently travelling to Tunisia to meet Erdogan gives the impression that He cited the rapid advance of frenetic diplomatic activity includ- quoted unidentified Tunisian se- with its leaders. Tunisia is aligned with the Turkey- “huge LNA forces” from several di- ing several Arab and Mediterranean curity officials as saying the “foiled The EU top diplomat and the for- Sarraj axis against Haftar.” rections towards the centre of Tripoli countries. Turkey and Russia urged terrorist plot” included security out- eign ministers of Britain, France, Ger- Conflicting statements from the and Misrata, pockets of territory un- Libya’s warring sides to respect a posts in Ben Guerdane to allow for many and Italy condemned Turkey’s presidency over what Erdogan want- der GNA control. More than 90% of ceasefire they set to go into effect “intrusion of jihadists from Libya.” plans to deploy troops to North Af- ed from Tunisia for his intervention the country is under LNA control. January 12. About 100 jihadists attacked Ben rica. Tunisia rejected in broad terms in Libya added to the confusion. Tunisian leaders said they worry Saied met with Saudi Foreign Min- Guerdane on March 7, 2016, targeting foreign intervention in Libya. Presidency communication chief that the strife in Libya could set off ister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and army barracks and security outposts. Saied hosted Turkish President Re- Rachida Ennaifer said Saied reject- an exodus of refugees towards its French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Thirty-six Islamic State-affiliated mil- cep Tayyip Erdogan, his defence and ed Erdogan’s request that Turkey border. Le Drian January 9. Saied told Le itants were killed in the battle, along foreign ministers and intelligence move troops and military equipment “All indications point towards Drian: “Tunisia’s constant stands are with seven civilians and 12 members chief as well as Sarraj but there have through Tunisia. However, Saied’s worsening of the situation in Libya premised on the respect of interna- of the security forces. been no apparent diplomatic ges- chief-of-staff, Tarek Bettaieb, refuted because of the foreign intervention,” tional legality.” After that attack Tunisia boosted tures towards Haftar and the LNA. Ennaifer’s comments, saying: “Such Tunisian President Kais Saied said In an indication of the security its defences on the Libyan border “There are many calls from experts rumours were aimed at undermining on January 7. “There are diplomatic threat to Tunisia from Libya, Tuni- with security and logistics help from and political figures to President the good ties between Turkey and efforts deployed within the frame- sian authorities said security forces the United States and Germany, au- Saied so that he takes a clear stand Tunisia.” Algerians keep up protests against Algeria names panel ruling elites but crowds dwindle to amend

The Arab Weekly staff tion and debate among Algeria’s po- constitution litical elites shifted from polarisation between the protest movement and Reuters Tunis the military-dominated government to talks of compromise. Algiers housands of Algerians took That change in the political mood to the streets of Algiers and extended to the protests, with many lgerian President Abdel- other cities in a winter driz- questioning the power of the people madjid Tebboune formed T zle for the 47th successive in the streets without leadership or a a panel to amend the Friday to continue pressuring for clear agenda of demands and a strat- A country’s constitution to broad political reforms despite the egy to achieve them. give parliament and the judiciary new president’s pledges to lay the The number of protesters was low- a greater role, a step aimed at end- foundations of a “new Algeria.” er than in previous demonstrations ing a months-long political crisis. “We are the sons of Amirouche, we but still reached the thousands. Protesters, however, continued to will not retreat,” chanted protesters Before the marches began, baton- demand the total dismantling of in Algiers in reference to independ- wielding police dispersed crowds of the power structure. ence hero Colonel Amirouche Ait demonstrators in Algiers. Police had Tebboune was elected in De- Hamouda. been deployed in force and dozens cember to replace long-time lead- “It is you or us. We will not stop,” of protesters were arrested, protests Pressing for reforms. Algerians chant slogans during an anti-govern- er Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who was they repeated under a giant banner figures announced on social media. ment demonstration in the centre of Algiers, January 10. (AFP) forced to step down in April amid painted with names and portraits of Dozens of police vehicles were sta- massive protests that have per- activists detained for their role in the tioned at Asselah Hocine in Algiers sisted since then, demanding to- protests. from where protesters from the res- to ensure a genuine separation and not reform it.” tal change of the power structure. The protests January 10 were a tive Bab el Oued district moved to- balance between the powers,” he Others added that Tebboune The protesters opposed the continuation of what has been wide- wards the centre of the capital. said. “The deep constitutional re- would face “stiff resistance from election, arguing that any vote ly described as the largest political More than 70 people who were forms were aimed at ushering in new the regime” for his reforms and op- while the old elite held power was pro-democracy movement since Al- jailed before trial or had been con- models of governance and laying the position and protest figures have an illegitimate. Tens of thousands of geria’s independence 58 years ago. victed were set free December 28. foundations of a new Algeria.” interest in helping him advance his people demonstrate each week, Demonstrators have forced chang- Protest figures welcomed the detain- The revised constitution draft, programme. voicing a rejection of Tebboune’s es that most political analysts pre- ees’ release as “a gesture of appease- which would limit a president to two Tebboune said after meeting offer of dialogue. dicted were unattainable in a coun- ment” by Tebboune and demanded terms, is to be submitted to a refer- January 9 with protest figure for- Tebboune’s office said in a try where the military dominates that other detained protesters be endum after endorsement in parlia- mer Ambassador Abdelaziz Rehabi: statement January 8 that the 17 politics and other aspects of civic released. ment. “The political moves and initiatives people on the new constitution- and business life. The latest demonstrations came Tebboune said that regaining at present and in the future aim at al committee would have three Long-time President Abdelaziz after Tebboune announced a new the trust of Algerians is a must to building confidence which strength- months to submit proposals for Bouteflika was ousted last April and government in which no member strengthen stability and build a con- ens dialogue and communication discussion, which could be sent dozens of his loyalists have been was seen as opposed to the pro-de- sensus over the country’s direction in order to cement an internal front to parliament before being put to jailed or replaced. mocracy protests. amid a tormented regional environ- that is strong and cohesive and able voters in a referendum. Former Prime Minister Abdelmad- Tebboune formed a panel of law ment with the flare-up of the con- to mobilise the energy and the com- The panel is led by Ahmed Lar- jid Tebboune was elected president experts to rewrite the constitution flict in neighbouring Libya and the petence of national elites and skills aba, a member of the UN Interna- December 12 and the military chief, that would include his promises to spread of jihadism in the Sahel. to make up for the lost time. tional Law Commission. It has the General Ahmed Gaid Salah, who was “turn a new page” in Algeria’s histo- Some protest figures dismissed “That effort will help build state mandate to look at all aspects of de facto leader of the country and ry to ensure a more tolerant, stable, the president’s moves of openness institutions to shape and embody state organisation and reconsider could have overshadowed the new democratic and inclusive path. as manoeuvres to divide the protest democracy in order to spare the the role of parliament and the ju- head of state, died December 23. “The proposals by the committee movement and its leaders. They country from dictatorial practices diciary to promote the rights of The leadership change appeared of experts will help Algeria to pre- said they sought “change by Teb- and allow everyone to enjoy security, citizens. to have affected the political situa- vent any form of authoritarianism, boune to help Algeria end the regime prosperity, freedoms and stability.” 12 January 12, 2020 News & Analysis Syria Pro-Turkish Syrian mercenaries, jihadists may add fuel to fire in Libya’s conflict

Sami Moubayed It’s a long history of proxy mili- tias being used in overseas conflicts to achieve short-to-medium goals. Beirut The Saudis did it in Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion of 1979, he number of Syrian fight- creating the Arab-Afghan warriors, ers in Libya has crossed the who morphed into al-Qaeda. 1,000-man benchmark, the Erdogan did it again in 2012, T Syrian Observatory for Hu- when he nudged foreign fighters to man Rights said. The fighters are cross the border, hoping they could from various military divisions in topple the Syrian government. He the armed Syrian opposition, all is doing it again with Libya, using bankrolled and shipped to Libya by the same warriors whom he helped Turkish President Recep Tayyip Er- train and arm from Syria. dogan. The Syrian Observatory for Hu- Sultan Murad and al-Mutassim man Rights (SOHR), based in Lon- Although there is no official don, said at least one of them has breakdown of fighters yet, most of died in battle in North Africa. those landing in Libya belong to the Libya-watchers have been trying Sultan Murad Division, an armed to analyse whether the Syrian fight- group created with Turkish funds ers are jihadists, like the ones who in 2013. travelled to Syria from all four cor- Stationed originally in Aleppo ners of the globe, or simply merce- governorate, it was named after Ot- naries on the Turkish payroll willing toman Sultan Murad II, who is re- to fight wherever they are stationed. membered for trying to regain lost Both answers, it seems, happen to territory during the 1400s. That no be correct. doubt is how Erdogan would like to be remembered, after launching his neo-Ottoman policy nearly two Sultan Murad, al-Mutassim decades back. and al-Sham factions have Although they have the decla- Syria replay. A 2016 file picture shows rebel fighters of the Sultan Murad Division walking along a Turkish loyalties. ration of faith of Islam (Shahada) street on the outskirts of the northern Syrian town of Shawa in Aleppo governorate. (Reuters) printed across their flag, Sultan “There are clearly strong resem- Murad fighters are not Islamic State and armed by the United States, themselves from the Brotherhood, because the pay is good or because blances to Wagner’s playbook,” said (ISIS) or al-Qaeda-type jihadists. provided with rifles, machine guns hoping to gain Gulf support but, they take orders from the Turkish Dmitriy Frolovskiy, a Russian expert They are nonetheless committed to and mortars. when that didn’t work, they pub- president. It is this group that might at the Middle East Institute, in ref- an Islamic government and are best In 2016, its fighters worked close- licly joined the pro-Turkish Army attract fighters from across the erence to the Wagner Group, a Rus- described as hardcore Erdogan loy- ly with Sultan Murad at occupying of Conquest and actively helped globe to Libya, rather than Sultan sian paramilitary organisation that alists. That somehow earned them Syrian land and handing it over to occupy Jarabulus and its environs Murad or al-Mutassim. fought on the side of the govern- the title of “moderates” and made the Turkish Army. In short, they are in 2016, followed by Afrin in 2018. Observers are wondering where ment in Syria and is believed to have them eligible for US arms under the willing to serve, kill and die wher- SOHR said 250 of them are in Libya, to put this category of fighters. Are close ties to the Russian Defence Obama administration, when they ever Erdogan sends them. to be soon followed by another 300. they like the foreign fighters who Ministry and President Vladimir Pu- were supplied armoured person- flocked to Syria in 2014-16, joining tin. nel carriers, autocannons, grenade The Sham Legion Different reasons ISIS and other jihadist groups? Or Like the Syrian fighters now in launchers and anti-tank missiles. The Sham Legion is the real Islam- Sham Legion warriors are in Libya are they Turkish mercenaries, like Libya, the Wagner fighters were In 2016, they took part in military ist component of the Syrian fighters for a different set of reasons than the Iranian ones sent to the Syr- shipped to Syria four years ago and operations overrunning the Syrian in Libya, well-known for its past the Sultan Murad and al-Mutassim ian battlefield with one objective engaged in a battlefield to which cities of Jarabulus, Azaz and al-Bab ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. groups. They are doing it essentially in mind: keep the government of they had no connection. and have since worked to legitimise Formed in 2014, its backbone was as part of a jihadist agenda and be- Fayez al-Sarraj in power in Tripoli? Frolovskiy explained: “That could their occupation by the Turkish made up of Sunni Muslim Salafist cause it pays well ($2,000-$2,500 Or are they just a replica of Wagner? lead all the way to the claims that the Army. warriors, all committed to jihad and per month, SOHR said). Russians are copying the (American) Pretty much the same applies to the creation of an Islamic govern- Sham Legion fighters are also do- Sami Moubayed is a Syrian Blackwater and former Soviet expe- al-Mutassim Division, also in Libya. ment in Syria. ing it to spread Islam and die — mar- historian and author of “Under the rience with military volunteers.” It, too, was marked as “moderate” They briefly tried to distance tyrs for a holy cause. It’s not only Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Sanctions against Syria don’t work, only making humanitarian situation dire

ostensibly meant to punish the on for years has been stopped tions almost always fail to achieve are no such worries. The incen- government of Bashar Assad and since the above-mentioned Turk- their stated goals of bringing an tive for businesses, therefore, is its cronies but that, in reality, are ish incursion cut supplies from insurgent country or government to gravitate towards the regime — Stephen Starr crippling poor Syrians the hardest. eastern Syria. Western sanc- to heal. not away from it — to survive and In Damascus, a city swollen tions have stopped shipments of Studies from the 1990s and prosper. with hundreds of thousands of Iranian oil from reaching desper- 2000s stated that sanctions All the while Western govern- yria may have fallen from displaced civilians, the cost of ate Syrians. Some outlets report achieve their goals only 5-33% of ments deploy sanctions in full the headlines but the basic goods such as heating oil and people are burning clothes to stay the time. That’s because, by their knowledge of whom they affect humanitarian situation cooking gas rocketed because of warm. very nature, dictatorial leaderships most and that they achieve little. on the ground has barely the sanctions-related near-collapse All the while, the US Treasury move first and foremost to secure The European Union says it main- improved. of the Syrian lira. Department’s Office of Foreign their own interests before their tains a commitment to “finding In north-eastern Syria, The sick cannot be treated Asset Control is sticking to a far- people’s. a lasting and credible political Sa major water shortage is affecting because medical equipment such ranging sanctions regime that’s as “By portraying sanctions as solution to the conflict in Syria” 460,000 people, many of whom as MRI machines and CT scanners assiduous as it is cruel. With more foreign aggression and economic but that ship has long since left the were displaced by the Turkish gather dust in public hospitals. than 450 Syrian individuals under warfare against their country, dock. military incursion that began in Essential replacement parts for sanction, the head has been cut authoritarian regimes often accuse The so-called Caesar Bill, a new October, which precipitated the the devices fall under the scope of clean off Syria’s business class. human rights activists of being US sanctions regime against Syrian withdrawal of most humanitarian Western sanctions. The European Union has “269 allied with the enemy,” wrote aca- leaders and co-conspirators that organisations from the area. Then, of course, there’s the mul- persons and 69 entities targeted demic Hassan Hakimian last year. was enacted in December, offers a In Hasakah province, thousands ti-year tragedy that is Idlib, a region by a travel ban and an asset “From there, it’s a short step to a potentially new way forward. It en- of tent dwellers, including infants the Washington Post predicted freeze.” To be sure their goals, to national security crackdown on courages negotiations by allowing and children, faced sub-freezing could become “the worst humani- impede individuals most re- such organisations.” the US president to rescind sanc- temperatures the first weekend in tarian crisis in Syria’s civil war.” sponsible for the war crimes that For legitimate businesses at- tions against parties who become January. “Health facilities are strained as destroyed the lives of countless tempting to operate in the legal involved in “meaningful negotia- The humanitarian crisis is only two out of 16 public hospitals Syrian civilians during the course boundaries of the international tions.” It may be a small step but worsened by US and EU sanctions, are currently functioning at full of the war, are noble. Were they to financial and trade system, one one that might lead to a way out capacity in this area,” Najat Roch- succeed, the broader Syrian popu- small mistake can result in fines up for the battered Syrian people. di, senior humanitarian adviser lation would eventually benefit. to $1 million. How are Syrian busi- However, nothing explains why to the UN special envoy for Syria, However, nothing adequately nesses, many of which have cash sanctions continue to be deployed told the International Syrian Task explains why economic sanctions reserves to restart their companies, when the common consensus is Western governments Force in Geneva in November. continue to be used against Syrians supposed to know which import that they don’t work. With such deploy sanctions in Since then, with regime air and others. Decades of sanctions- companies have ties to regime offi- policies being used, why should strikes again displacing tens of induced misery have played out cials — and thus rendered illegal in Syrians trust the West? full knowledge of thousands of people already in autocracies around the world — the eyes of the West — and which whom they affect forced from their homes, the day- Iraq in the 1990s and North Korea, are clean? Stephen Starr is the author of to-day situation has deteriorated. Venezuela and Cuba in the years For Syrian mafiosos and black “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to most and that they That’s because the oil that the before and since — have illustrated marketeers using their regime links the Uprising” and has lived in Syria achieve little. afflicted province has depended a simple truth: Economic sanc- to access the black market, there and Turkey since 2007. January 12, 2020 13 Viewpoint Lebanon As banking sector suffers, Lebanese are getting poorer and poorer

it relies too heavily on consumer-based structures. This aggravated the current Rami Rayess crisis in which many Lebanese are unable to access money from their bank accounts ebanon’s economy is because of capital restrictions. on the verge of col- The capital limits, imposed lapse and everyone by banks that fear depositors — Lebanese locals, will withdraw money all at expatriates, bankers, once and cause a liquidity economists, politi- crisis, pushed people to Lcians and even donors who desperate measures to try to have yet to come through with withdraw money from their their pledges because they are accounts. Some have crushed waiting on economic reforms — ATMs and bank facades; others knows it. took sleeping mattresses The banking sector’s steady into bank lobbies and there decline is devastating because were those who have taken to it was once one of the few occupying tellers’ desks. reliable parts of Lebanon’s One depositor withdrew 6 economy. Lebanon’s industrial million Lebanese pounds — and agricultural sectors, more than $10,000 — in cash despite their high-quality after he parked a bulldozer in products, have been unable front of the bank entrance and to penetrate foreign markets threatened to demolish the but the country’s banking building if his request was not and services sectors often met. flourished, beginning in the The chaotic scene is 1950s and 1960s when Beirut broadcast live on social media, was a haven for Arab oil money further eroding confidence in Until further notice. A flatbed truck, placed by an angry Lebanese client, blocks the entrance to his and foreign depositors. In the banking system. bank branch in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon, January 4. (AFP) times of stability, tourism in Melhem Khalaf, president Lebanon also became a vibrant of the Beirut Bar Association, sector. slammed the capital control that almost 500,000 Lebanese him from his Beirut office to that once attracted billions The Lebanese economy measures imposed by the are working in the Arab discredit the news that had of dollars from inside and has faced problems because Lebanese Banks Association as Gulf region, many regularly spread on social media. outside the country will not “unconstitutional and illegal.” sending money to loved ones What is clear is that be the same and it will take a “This is a process that in Lebanon. If Lebanon’s serious measures need to long time before the banking Going forward, it is should be undertaken by the cash and banking transfer quickly be taken to help system will even be able to clear that the vibrant legislative authority,” he said in system crashes, that source of restore confidence. This function as a pivotal part of the a statement. Some depositors income would be lost for many begins with a trustworthy economy. Lebanese banking have turned to the Lebanese Lebanese households. cabinet that would prioritise In the meantime, the sector that once judiciary with complaints and Indeed, fears are growing economic reforms. If the Lebanese people will watch numerous courts have ruled in in Beirut that banks will cabinet does not gain local from the sidelines, as they attracted billions of favour of depositors go bankrupt. This was and international support, are likely to grow poorer and dollars from inside Lebanese families dependent bolstered by a false rumour Lebanon’s descent into chaos poorer. and outside the on expatriates working abroad that Lebanon’s central bank will take place even faster. and transferring money home Governor Riad Salame had fled Going forward, it is clear Rami Rayess is a Lebanese country will not be to them are also growing to the United States. Salame’s that the vibrant and successful writer. Follow him on Twitter: the same. concerned. It is estimated office released a photo of Lebanese banking sector @RamiRayess. Carlos Ghosn’s homecoming further exposes Lebanon’s corruption

Ghosn remained under house case like a car salesman, arguing — along with 8.43% voting defending their adopted son, arrest for nine months in Japan that Japan was unwilling to grant power — and 6.48% quota of the Lebanon and its irresponsible but his case took a surprise turn him a free trail and providing IMF — along with 6.15% voting politicians decided to stand Makram Rabah when he arrived at Beirut Rafik evidence to that effect. Ghosn’s rights. This makes it a very up to the world’s third-largest Hariri International Airport on defence convinced much of dangerous enemy to have if one economy on their own. December 30, having escaped the general public. While many wishes to apply to these financial The issue is not purely ormer auto tycoon detention in an elaborate plot said the skilled marketer was institutions. economic or diplomatic — it cuts Carlos Ghosn made that saw him smuggled onto a probably guilty of tax evasion, If Lebanon and its political to the heart of why Lebanon is headlines about a year plane in a luggage case. they said Japan had its own elite are serious about restoring in crisis. Each time the country’s ago for all the wrong While many have fixated on nefarious agenda in locking him their shattered image, allowing political establishment has reasons. details of Ghosn’s Hollywood- up. Ghosn to use Lebanon as a its sovereignty or economic The French- escape, the real story As Lebanon faces lingering platform to attack Japan is wellbeing threatened, it has taken FBrazilian-Lebanese businessman, is what effect his return will economic and political surely counterproductive, not the less reasoned course, opening who had come to represent the have on Lebanon, which instability, it is looking to say foolish. By accepting to the country to more danger. archetypal Lebanese diaspora stands accused of helping an to the international collaborate with Ghosn and While Ghosn is not a member success story, had been charged international fugitive escape community, defend him against of the political establishment that with fraud and tax evasion justice and antagonising Japan. including the Japan, Lebanon has Lebanese protesters have sought in Japan, jeopardising his The Lebanese government said World Bank and dug itself into a deeper to topple, he stands as proof business reputation and risking a Ghosn was legally granted entry the International hole. of how the Lebanese no longer diplomatic crisis. because he is a Lebanese national Monetary Rather than represent prosperity or ingenuity The case of the former who had no current convictions Fund (IMF), to declaring and but a rogue country held hostage Nissan CEO was not clear-cut, or outstanding warrants. provide funds insisting by Iran and its affiliate Hezbollah. white-collar crime. While there There were rumours, however, after it initiates that both Ghosn picked Lebanon to was strong evidence against that Ghosn’s entry was more serious reforms. France and escape to not merely because it him, there were indications complicated, granted only after Japan plays an Brazil join is his native land but because he the case involved a broader he bought protection and safe important role in them in knew that the corrupt Lebanese dispute between the French and passage from the Lebanese ruling both international system would allow him to Japanese, who were fighting over establishment and its figurehead institutions, emerge from his troubles as a control of a multibillion-dollar foreign minister, Gebran Bassil, holding 8.9% of hero. However, the beleaguered Renault-Nissan alliance. Lebanese President Michel shares in the businessman may have failed to Aoun’s son-in-law and political World realise that the same people who heir. Bank helped him could soon be the Whether this version is true ones who sell him out — for the Ghosn picked or not, the Lebanese state’s right price. Lebanon to escape complicity in Ghosn’s escape is because he knew that evident. Makram Rabah is a lecturer Ghosn broke his silence at at the American University of the corrupt Lebanese a news conference January 8 Beirut and author of “Conflict system would allow during which he explained why on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, he chose to break the law and the Maronites and Collective him to emerge from escape captivity in Japan. Unfinished saga. Nissan’s former chairman Carlos Ghosn speaks Memory” (Edinburgh University his troubles as a hero. For hours, Ghosn presented his at a news conference in Beirut, January 8. (AP) Press). 14 January 12, 2020 Viewpoint Turkey Turkey’s new ‘janissaries’ head to Libya but may be too late for Sarraj

Majed Nehme

n 2018, a presidential regime was established in Turkey and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan started be- having like a new Ottoman sultan. Barely voted in as Ipresident, he declared: “The Re- public of Turkey, like our previous states which are a continuation of each other, is also a continuation of the Ottomans.” “Of course, the borders have changed; the forms of govern- ment have changed… but the es- sence is the same, the soul is the same, even many institutions are the same,” he added. Among those institutions inspired by the Ottoman Empire, Erdogan has resurrected, in a new incarnation, the concept of janissaries, made during the days of the empire of European slaves and prisoners of war, a sort of praetorian guard of the Ottoman . This military body, known for its cruelty, had become a threat to the regime it was supposed to protect. Sultan Mahmoud II abolished the military corps in 1826, liquidating 7,000 janissaries in Istanbul and 120,000 in the rest of the empire. Despite the massacre, the re- course by the Ottomans to the ser- vices of mercenaries and agents Complex conflict. A fighter of Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord fires his rifle during clashes with forces of the Libyan to do the empire’s dirty work National Army at Al-Khalla front line, Tripoli, last August. (AFP) remained a tradition among the and later among Turkish nationalists. From 1894-96, the In turn, the latter would be of Syria — Idlib and Aleppo re- with the intention of dispatching as cannon fodder. agents of the Turkish state were much later repressed, massacred gions and the north-east border them to Misrata, the stronghold of Despite his bluster and boast- used against the minorities of the and their cultural identity erased. area — Erdogan uses the Brother- the Libyan and Egyptian Muslim fulness, Erdogan seems to be empire. In response to the Arme- Modern Turkish nationalists hood and Islamist brigades as well Brothers, and Tripoli. losing the game in Libya. Islam- nians’ demands for reform and (aka the Young Turks) were not to as Turkish-speaking ethnic mi- Despite the outcry in Libya ists who control the Sarraj govern- modernisation of the institutions, be outdone. They perpetuated the norities (Turkmen) and Chinese and internationally, against the ment are losing momentum. Sultan Abdul-Hamid II killed tradition of Ottoman genocides Islamist militants (Uighurs) to blatant interference, Erdogan Their territory is shrinking. 200,000-250,000 of them with the and ethnic cleansing against the maintain order, with cruelty, and didn’t give up. He announced the The fall of Sirte, a strategic point help of Kurdish auxiliaries. Armenians, the Assyro-Chaldeans organise the looting of resources deployment of Turkish troops, that controls access to Misrata, or Pontics (Greek Orthodox of the (factories, oil, grain). following approval given by a which happened while Turkish province of Pont on the Black Sea) Always pushing forth, he Turkish parliament dominated by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavuso- and Greek minorities. rushed to the rescue of the Tripo- Justice and Development Party glu, preceded by Sarraj, was being Despite his In 2011, during the war in Syria, li-based government of Fayez al- Islamists and his nationalist allies. received in Algiers, is a sign the bluster and Erdogan, relying on Qatari money, Sarraj, with whom he had signed Erdogan acknowledged that dice had been thrown. used the Syrian Muslim Broth- oil exploration and defence agree- Turkey “will also have other boastfulness, erhood. He also used Islamists ments. The Turkish Army started teams there as combat forces, out- Majed Nehme is a Syrian-French Erdogan seems in Libya during the NATO-led to enlist, sometimes by force, side our regular troops.” In other journalist in Paris. campaign to topple Muammar Syrian and other Islamist merce- words, they are the mercenaries to be losing the Qaddafi. naries who had been fighting the of the Syrian armed opposition in Full version of this article appears game in Libya. In the Turkish-occupied areas Syrian government since 2011, the pay of Turkey. They will serve on www.thearabweekly.com Soleimani’s death offers Erdogan a precious opportunity with Trump

ism while ignoring the divisive, was involved in reducing ten- Turkey and Iran and despite the Iran-US tensions are true, it is violent and subversive activities of sions between Iran and the United Sunni-Shia divide, Turkey under through calculations by the Turk- Soleimani in Iraq, Syria and Leba- States. This seemed to be an “aha Erdogan’s predominantly Islam- ish president. It may be true that Yavuz Baydar non in the furtherance of Iranian moment” to suggest that Erdogan ist rule since 2012 has deepened Trump will need damage-control expansionism. had realised that returning Turkey trade with Iran, often challeng- efforts and dialogue-by-proxy Turkish opposition media tried to a soft power role and adopting ing the US embargo — on several with Tehran. If he reaches out s if the swirling pace to determine what to make of an intermediary mission would occasions crossing the line. Two to his friend in Ankara, Trump of events lately were the killings and their aftermath take him out of the dark hole into massive graft investigations in is highly likely to have a familiar not enough to expose while Islamist pro-government which he had squeezed himself. Turkey in 2013 brought about seri- condition thrown at him: Help me the rudderless nature outlets speculated about whether While it was true that, in the ous charges involving a US federal so we all forget the breach of Ira- of Turkey’s regional Soleimani’s death could benefit killing of Soleimani, Erdogan court specialising in organised nian embargo that my folks have foreign policy, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip might have seen windows of crime. been involved in, free Halkbank of killingA of al-Quds Force Major- Erdogan. opportunity but it didn’t include At the centre of the cases stood charges so we can all proceed to General Qassem Soleimani along This explains the remarkable a genuine recalibration of his pur- top figures of the Erdogan admin- better times. with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, delay in Ankara’s reaction to the suits in the region. istration and Halkbank. Experts As the US 2020 election season leader of the Kata’ib Hezbollah eruption of tension between Iran On the face of it, the death of said the findings constituted the begins, Trump and Erdogan know militia and deputy commander of and the United States. In a routine Soleimani and Muhandis might tip of the iceberg, extending far they need each other — badly. For Al-Hashed al-Shaabi, added to the statement, the Turkish Foreign have come as a relief for Erdogan’s beyond the $30 billion in an oil- the former, any regional victory he confusion in Ankara. Ministry employed cautious lan- government. They represented for-gold scheme involving Turkish can sell to his public would secure Turkish media were once again guage, saying: “Turkey has always Shia expansionism in the region and Iranian governments. a second term. For the latter, help- mired in their blurred optics, with been against foreign interven- but, more important, a steady The trial in New York continues ing his sole friend win the elec- Islamist and leftist media joining tions, assassinations and sectarian stumbling block for Turkey’s to be the main parameter through tion would grant Erdogan carte ranks to condemn US imperial- clashes in the region. We call upon pursuit of regime change to the which Erdogan shapes his policies blanche for further consolidation all parties to show restraint and benefit of Sunni jihadists in Syria. with Washington. His once cease- of absolutist power at home. act responsibly, avoiding moves Good riddance of anything sup- less obsession with having the It may be far-fetched but As the US 2020 that can threaten the peace and portive of Damascus, as long as it cases in the US courts dismissed Soleimani’s death may provide election season stability in the region.” doesn’t rock the vulnerable boat has evaporated. This is one of the such a breakthrough moment From the various statements in Turkey and Russia are rowing. major reasons he has Trump as the to serve the two men’s personal begins, Trump and Ankara, it was obvious that official Erdogan likely saw a tactical sole American figure who sup- interests. Erdogan know sources had their eyes and ears opportunity for a go-between role ports him in Washington. locked on what Erdogan would between US President Donald If any of the suggestions that Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish they need each say. Eventually, many of them Trump and Tehran. Despite Erdogan may adopt an intermedi- journalist and regular columnist other — badly. focused on his hints that Turkey the historical rivalry between ary role in helping de-escalate for The Arab Weekly. January 12, 2020 15 Viewpoint Turkey Turkey aims to sign $2.7 billion deal with Libya over Qaddafi-era compensation

Reuters weeks, the deal will encompass a $1 billion letter of guarantee, $500 million in damage to machinery Istanbul and equipment and unpaid debts of $1.2 billion, he said. urkey plans to sign a $2.7 With projects in Libya on hold billion compensation because of fighting, the backlog agreement for work car- of Turkish contract work in Libya T ried out in Libya before the amounts to $16 billion, including 2011 civil war, a sector official said, $400 million-$500 million for pro- seeking to revive stalled Turkish jects that have not begun, Aksoy business operations in the conflict- said. ridden country. Turkey and Russia have become Turkish businesses have long increasingly involved in the con- been active in Libya but their pro- flict, with Ankara backing the in- jects were disrupted when rebels ternationally recognised Govern- overthrew Muammar Qaddafi nine ment of National Accord in Tripoli, years ago and have been hit again while Moscow has largely backed by continued fighting there. forces in eastern Libya led by Khal- A significant hurdle to reinvig- ifa Haftar. orating investment has been un- Haftar’s Libyan National Army certainty regarding unpaid debts. said it would not let up in its mili- Muzaffer Aksoy, chairman of the tary campaign against factions in Turkish-Libyan Business Council, Tripoli, appearing to reject a call by said the two countries were close Russia and Turkey for a ceasefire. to signing a memorandum of un- Despite the disruption, Libyan- derstanding (MoU). Turkish trade remains buoyant, “Work on the MoU regarding the with Turkish exports reaching $2 Turkish bill. The Libya Central Bank building in Tripoli. (Reuters) old contracts is reaching an end. billion annually and imports at The problem of unpaid debts, dam- $350 million, Aksoy said. ages and a letter of guarantee will However, Turkish contractors April because of the fighting. ing, business centres. Signatures since April they have not been able be solved,” Aksoy said. with projects in Libya had not been “New contracts had been signed, have been [obtained] for letters of to go for security reasons,” Aksoy Set to be signed in the coming able to travel to the country since projects like power stations, hous- credit for some of these. However, said. In Libya, Erdogan plays Russian roulette Haftar in July 2017, was disingenuous foundering in Syria, Putin moved at for European and American Studies must have been music to Erdogan’s because he gave the impression that the precise moment Haftar’s support- in Athens, said this would present ears. he was a neutral mediator, although ers in Libya were losing their candour a new terror threat to Europe, more An anti-West vein will be the chief Martin Jay there were hints he was more in- and would be receptive to a deal to illegal immigration and a new crop of concern with Arab countries Egypt clined to favour Haftar. stand aside. illegal weapons reaching Libya. and the United Arab Emirates, which Russia also offered symbolic sup- “The adjustment of the Kremlin’s “Without­ strong and long overdue might find themselves on a collision he most poignant, if not port but had stayed clear of logisti- strategy is due to the fact that even measures by the international com- course with Trump and Macron if disturbing, point about cally supporting Haftar. However, the main Haftar sponsors — Egypt munity, Turkey’s foreign policy will they are prepared to power share the Libyan conflict is not recently it showed signs of support- and the United Arab Emirates — are continue to create instability in the with Russia. how the West failed but ing Sarraj after US President Donald tired of investing in the Haftar project Mediterranean and empower regres- Arguing that they removed the re- how it continues to fail, Trump pushed Russia and Turkey and consider it as a locomotive that sive Islamists forces, threatening the calcitrant NATO member (Erdogan), leaving rogue players to together in northern Syria, following will do the rough work and then security and development of both replacing him with a triumphant Pu- Teye rich pickings from the carcass of the ill-conceived betrayal of both the other figures who will participate will natives and Europeans,” she wrote. tin, will not score them many points Muammar Qaddafi. Kurds and Ankara. replace it in a political settlement,” Cafiero, however, said that Ankara with London, Paris and Washington, A new tempo to the conflict ap- Supporting Sarraj makes sense for said Anton Mardasov, non-resident remains under pressure. especially when video clips appear of pears to be giving Field-Marshal Russia on many levels, given Russian expert at the Russian International “Turkey views the possibility of a extremists in northern Syria relocated Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National President Vladimir Putin’s desire to Affairs Council in Moscow. Haftar ‘victory’ in Libya as extremely to Tripoli. Army (LNA) — supported by Saudi secure the Libyan coastline to expand The West may pay the ultimate negative in terms of Ankara’s strate- The videos may be fake as some Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emir- his power over the Mediterranean price when Putin succeeds in rein- gic interests. Thus, the support that analysts suspect that Erdogan is ates, Britain and France — a slight Basin and that his would-be partners stating Qaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, Moscow is providing Haftar is adding bluffing and buying time, figuring edge, prompting him to declare he is — Turkey, Qatar and, to some extent, as deputy leader (under Haftar) once a new layer of tension to the Turkey- out how to work things out with about to take Tripoli. Algeria and Morocco — would help in Tripoli falls. That sweet victory for Russia relationship,” he said. Putin. It’s interesting how Erdogan’s Is Haftar bluffing now that he posing a threat to NATO and possibly Putin would undermine the United “That said, numerous factors… statements over the Christmas period has Russia with him and interna- even give Putin a double whammy if Nations, NATO and all Western give Ankara reason to maintain a stressed how Turkish troops would tional condemnation about Libya and Ankara broke free of NATO. governments that he felt cheated pragmatic relationship with Russia be dispatched to Tripoli, if they were Turkey creating maritime treaties The arrival of Russian mercenar- him when the United Nations took that enables the two governments to “invited” by Sarraj. grows and analysts argue that, even ies was a game changer, said Giorgio its controversial decision in 2011 to cooperate where their interests align. Even towards the United States, the if Tripoli can be taken, keeping it will Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics intervene in Libya. Thus, Turkey will work to avoid Libya conundrum appears to be phas- be much harder? in Washington, adding that he was letting its problems with Russian ac- ing Erdogan’s normally lucid view. Haftar knows that time is not on sceptical about any peace deal. tions in Libya form excessively dam- A clue of this was seen with his an- his side, given that Turkish President “Russia’s support for the LNA is a aging potential for Ankara and Mos- nouncement to close airbases used by Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to bol- major boost to the LNA, which ap- If Erdogan is gambling cow to cooperate in other domains, the United States in southern Turkey, ster Government of National Accord pears to be giving Haftar the mo- that Turkish troops especially against the backdrop of following moves in Washington to (GNA) troops with Turkish Army mentum to possibly usurp control and the GNA will face countless problems between Turkey sanction him over the Russian S-400 units. After the approval by Turkish of Tripoli. That said, Haftar’s forces and its fellow NATO members.” missile defence deal. parliament, Erdogan confirmed the taking Tripoli wouldn’t mean the end Russian, Emirati and Mohamed Eljarh, an analyst in The stakes for Turkey are high. Er- deployment to Libya of army troops of the conflict, let alone a stable Libya Egyptian forces — as Tripoli, said that Erdogan beefing up dogan sees in Libya an opportunity to and fighters from outside Turkish as the violence that has heated up the strength of the GNA is all about further his dreams of being a regional regular units. Haftar’s rejection of since the LNA launched its westward well as the LNA — preparing to strike a deal with Putin. player that is so great that he has to Russia’s and Turkey’s call for a cease- offensive in April 2019 has severely then this game is “The two men have an interest in tread very carefully with Putin. Issues fire means the fighting will go on. undermined any hope for some likely to backfire. working together in Libya like they with Russia over the S-400s and the A bigger, bolder war is in the cards power-sharing arrangement,” Cafiero did in Syria. Both men have animos- arrival of mercenaries on the edge of that can hardly be called proxy as explained. ity towards Europe and the West and Tripoli might push him to act irration- more international players send Putin is banking on the foibles of The UN-brokered Skhirat Agree- believe, through a strategic partner- ally, placing him in the sights of the nationals to Libya to a conflict that Trump, the conflict between France ment, signed in December 2015, was ship in Syria, Libya and elsewhere, Russian leader, who will lose patience could be as bloody as Qaddafi’s and NATO and the lack of appetite never a serious ceasefire. Putin’s they can form a bloc that would with the Turkish leader if Putin’s goal downfall in 2011, a rushed and foolish for any more blood-on-the-hands for intervention, however, could see a counter Western influence and domi- of taking Tripoli is thwarted. move by the United Nations. pusillanimous Western leaders such real ceasefire in 2020, which would nance in the region,” Eljarh said. If Erdogan is gambling that Turkish For some, there is no question as Macron as the perfect setting to end the delusional Macron dream of Erdogan will feel the heat from troops and the GNA will face Rus- who to blame: France. The vigour repeat what he did in Syria. Libya being a francophone satellite or a Washington that moves to alien- sian, Emirati and Egyptian forces — as that Haftar now has, along with his Like in Syria, Putin is backing both even Western vassal. ate Ankara with sanctions, coupled well as the LNA — then this game of chest-beating, has drawn the wrath sides in Libya. Putin has backed Sar- Putin’s support for Haftar was with the very real worry that Qatar’s Russian roulette is likely to backfire. of many, including Libya’s foreign raj on a UN Security Council level, said to be anything from symbolic support for Turkey might wane, The measure will be when we see the minister in Tripoli who literally spat recognising his legitimacy (when to financial but with the arrival of given that it is trying to patch up its number of troops he sends. blood when talking about France, most Libyans don’t) and perhaps Russian snipers from the Wagner difference with Saudi Arabia and the Putin is looking more and more citing French President Emmanuel most important not using his might Group, plus hardware, including jets, United Arab Emirates and is keen to towards better relations in the Arab Macron’s envy over not being able to to bully Iran or Turkey into reduc- the moves will up the stakes in and show it is no longer supporting the world with Saudi Arabia and the colonise the country. ing or stopping their support. Putin’s around Tripoli. Muslim Brotherhood (ever-present in United Arab Emirates, which will go Describing France as “one of strength is that he has invested in Erdogan was quick with the retali- Tripoli). to great lengths to teach the Turkish Libya’s [latter day] colonisers” and good relations with both Turkey on atory rhetoric and in many ways is Cafiero said the Trump administra- leader that he, like the West in 2011, arguing that Paris is “jealous of one side and the United Arab Emir- attracted to a bigger campaign that tion has tried to convince Haftar’s has bitten off more than he can chew. Libya not being part of Francophone ates and Egypt on the other. he might see as boosting his popular- regional backers — chiefly Abu Dhabi Africa” banged the nail firmly on the Some experts in Moscow have a ity. He simply can’t resist being in the — to stand down when it comes to the Martin Jay is a freelance writer in head. different take on Putin’s support for media spotlight and so said he would Tripoli move, in preference for talks. Morocco. Macron’s intervention from the Haftar and said that, just as Putin send troops to Tripoli. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo beginning, when he hosted both GNA stepped in at the critical moment A paper published by Aya Bur- talking down the idea of an UAE- Full version of this article appears on Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and when Assad was looking like he was weila, from the Research Institute backed coup with Haftar leading it www.thearabweekly.com 16 January 12, 2020 Viewpoint Iran US US operation against Soleimani is a major inflection point for stakeholders

few anticipated a move from either Sabahat Khan side that could trigger open military conflict. Among the few likely cer- tainties of an open military conflict he targeting of Iranian between Iran and the United States Major-General Qassem is that it would be fought in various Soleimani by US forces areas of the region, be catastrophic represents a major and have a global effect. inflection point in the Ultimately, Iran would be unable US-Iran standoff and for to survive a direct military conflict Tthe region. with the United States, a reality The US operation to kill Soleimani clearly factored into the American appeared to come as a surprise not calculus as it raised the stakes for only to the Iranian leadership but to Iran. New calculus. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (C-R) and US Defence Secretary Mark Esper leave US allies. Until now, every stake- Soleimani had been described as after a briefing on developments with Iran, at the US Capitol in Washington, January 8. (Reuters) holder in the Middle East’s scenario the most powerful figure in Iraq by had been invested in efforts at dif- none other than Iraqi parliamentar- hard” if needed. The next weeks will confirm if The call by Iraqi lawmakers for fusing US-Iran tensions and trying ians. Iran’s nurturing of Hezbollah Soon after news of Soleimani’s there is any life left in the JCPOA. foreign troops to leave their coun- to pave a way towards dialogue. in Lebanon, its cultivation of the death, Iran announced it was However, it is difficult to see Iran try, a move directed at US forces, The killing of another coun- Popular Mobilisation Forces, in Iraq, suspending all commitments to joining direct talks with the United is probably the most significant try’s serving official as senior as its Syria policy and, in more recent the nuclear accord known as the States. The domestic scenario was blowback of Soleimani’s killing Soleimani was unexpected and the years, its role in Yemen with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action already not tenable for Iran indefi- for Washington. Iran’s rhetoric move was criticised by some for the Houthi rebels all advanced under (JCPOA) and declared its right to re- nitely yet these recent moves by has been based around forcing a dangerous precedent it sets — not Soleimani’s leadership. taliate through a military response. Washington will have strengthened US withdrawal from the region only for other American foes but Recognising the standing of Iraqi military bases at al-Asad the hand of hardliners in the Iranian whereas Iraq’s leaders say they do in various theatres of competition Soleimani in Iran, not just in his and Erbil hosting US forces were regime who have opposed talks. not want to see their country be- around the world. official capacity but also consider- targeted with Iranian missiles in a Washington’s moves will be the come a battleground for US-Iranian Last year, the Trump admin- ing that he was in prime position to calculated response that deposited key determinant for the direction grievances against each other. istration had designated Iran’s take on yet a greater leadership role a counterstrike, for which there this standoff moves in but Russia However, as recent years have Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the years ahead — and certainly, was widespread pressure in Iran, could find an unexpected opportu- also seen rising nationalist senti- a foreign terrorist organisation and in a future post-Khamenei era — it is but which appeared to be designed nity to leverage its growing regional ment against Iran’s influence in Washington said it acted in self- difficult to understate the signifi- so the risk of forcing further escala- weight. Iraq, its evolving domestic scenario defence because Soleimani was cance of his death or its setback for tion or US retaliation was mini- The United States is attempting is not necessarily a lost opportunity planning imminent attacks on US Iran. mised. to position a larger NATO role into for Washington if accompanied forces and interests. Highly significant is how the The White House said it will the process but, while Europe’s role with the right political conditions. Before the strike against Soleim- United States demonstrated with impose further economic sanctions in diplomacy is coming under the Ironically, the US operation ani’s convoy there had been rocket action that it had altered the rules on Iran and has called for other sig- increasing spotlight, it has demon- against Soleimani may well have attacks by Iran-allied militias and of engagement against Iran with a natories of the JCPOA to abandon strated little that it can bring to the strengthened the Iranian regime’s demonstrators breaching the US strengthening intent to settle this the accord to internationalise its table as far as Iran is concerned. power at home but clipped its capa- Embassy in Baghdad. For months, high-stakes competition. US Presi- demand for a new deal be negotiat- Ultimately, there are two parties bility abroad. US intelligence expected an assault dent Donald Trump later suggested ed from scratch. The United States to this standoff and, while they on its interests in Iraq orchestrated his decision to authorise the strike wants an agreement with Iran that appear further apart than ever, their Sabahat Khan maintains a by Iran, whose economy is strangu- was taken to avoid rather than start goes beyond the nuclear file and in- power differential is becoming more cross-disciplinary focus in lating under US sanctions. a war but the United States was cludes its activities in Yemen, Syria, apparent as a consequence of the international security, defence With US-Iran tensions seething, ready to hit Iran “very fast and very Lebanon and Iraq. United States’ new assertiveness. policy and strategic issues. Disrespecting Iraqi sovereignty is not a winning strategy for US

most likely referring to al-Asad Air- ence in Iraq was not governed base west of Baghdad, Trump went by a Status of Forces Agreement Gregory on to say: “We have a very extraor- but by an executive agreement dinarily expensive airbase that’s between the heads of the US and Aftandilian there. It costs billions of dollars to Iraqi governments. As such, the US build… We’re not leaving unless troop presence could be ended by they pay us back for it.” the Iraqi prime minister repudiating S President Donald The Washington Post reported the agreement. Hence, maligning Trump may have had that US Secretary of State Mike the Iraqi prime minister, even if he legitimate griev- Pompeo dismissed the Iraqi par- is in a caretaker role, seems to be a ances against the Iraqi liamentary vote as “the flailing of strategy that could backfire against government for not an unrepresentative parliament the United States. adequately protect- headed by a lame-duck prime Trump needs to read a little Uing the Green Zone, which enabled minister.” history and desist from threaten- pro-Iran Shia militiamen to lay siege This is not the first time Trump ing Iraq. His aides should give him to the US Embassy for two days in caused a political uproar in Iraq by reading material about the British early January, but his statements his actions and comments. His De- colonial era — the mandate and the since then have shown little respect cember 2018 visit to al-Asad created post-mandate period, when the for Iraqi sovereignty and an igno- controversy because he did not visit British not only maintained bases rance of Iraqi history. Iraqi officials, as it is customary, in the country but had political in- In reaction to the US strike that and treated the base as US sover- fluence in it and how all that came killed 25 Iraqi Shia militiamen and eign territory, much like the British Key mission. US Marines provide security at the US Embassy to end with the 1958 revolution led the drone attack that killed Iranian did when they controlled Iraq after compound in Baghdad, January 3. (Reuters) by Iraqi nationalist officers. al-Quds Force commander Major- World War I. If the United States handles mat- General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi Trump was not sensitive to this ters in a more deft manner, it could militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Mu- sentiment and did not bother to time around, that is post-2014, was drawal. Senior Pentagon officials retain troops in Iraq to continue handis, the Iraqi parliament passed learn the lesson. Two months far less controversial than the post- later said the letter was only a draft their important work of training a non-binding resolution calling later, sounding like the real estate 2003 period. In the second phase, and should not have been sent to the Iraqi military and helping Iraqi on all foreign troops to withdraw businessman he once was (and still the Iraqis keenly needed the United Iraqi officials, causing more confu- forces go after ISIS cells. Many from the country. The aim of the is), he told an American television States to stave off the offensive by sion among Iraqis. Iraqis, even though they hate to resolution was clearly intended for interviewer: “We spent a fortune on the Islamic State (ISIS), which had Around this same time, the admit so publicly, want the United the United States, which has about building this incredible base” and reached Baghdad’s gates. Washington Post reported that States to stay as a balancer to Iran, 5,000 troops in Iraq. “we might as well keep it.” US troops were not seen as occu- senior US officials had begun to which they see as having too much The caretaker prime minister of Adding insult to injury, Trump pying Iraqi cities, as was the case in draft sanctions on Iraq in case influence in the country. Iraq, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, before the said one of the reasons he wants to the earlier period, but retraining the Trump goes ahead with his threats However, for this to succeed, vote, which he supported, called keep this base is to “watch Iran,” Iraqi military so it could retake ISIS- to impose them. One unidentified Trump must stop making threats, the Soleimani killing a “political which many Iraqis interpreted as occupied territory. For the most official said the plan was to wait “a respect Iraqi sovereignty and allow assassination.” dragging the country into a war part, US troops in this endeavour little while” to see whether Iraqi US professional diplomats to mend Trump reacted angrily towards that they do not want. Shortly after were “out of sight and out of mind.” officials follow through on their fences with Iraqi authorities. That the vote. He said that if the Iraqis the interview aired, many Iraqi However, Trump’s comments rekin- threat to push US troops out of the may be a tall order for Trump but ask the Americans to leave and do politicians called for the expul- dled old wounds and drummed up country. A former Obama admin- that is the only way to reset very not do it in a very friendly way, “We sion of US forces from the country, new fears. istration official was quoted in the tense US-Iraqi relations. will charge them with sanctions like claiming that Trump was acting Complicating the controversy article as stating: “You don’t typi- they’ve never seen before.” Such as a colonial master and that the was a US Department of Defence cally use force against your allies. Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in sanctions, he added, would “make US-Iran conflict should be kept out letter given to Iraqi officials after We are threatening to use extreme the Pardee School of Global Studies Iranian sanctions look somewhat of Iraq. the parliamentary vote stating that coercive policy tools against coun- at Boston University and a former tame.” It should be noted that the US it would be repositioning US troops tries with whom we are allied.” US State Department Middle East Continuing with his threats and military presence in Iraq the second in preparation for a possible with- The post-2014 US military pres- analyst. January 12, 2020 17 Viewpoint Iran US Iran steps away from nuclear deal but stops short of full exit

negotiators aimed in 2015 for the national Atomic Energy Agency JCPOA to stretch to a year Iran’s (IAEA), which undertakes inspec- “break-out time,” the period be- tions under the terms of the JCPOA Gareth Smyth tween Tehran abandoning con- and an additional protocol agreed straints and producing a nuclear by Iran as a signatory of the Nu- weapon. They said a year would clear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran uch was the furore give time for countermeasures, also said that, if US sanctions were following the killing of including potential military strikes. lifted as agreed under the JCPOA, it Iranian Major-General Hence, under the deal, Iran was “ready to return to its com- Qassem Soleimani that reduced its IR-1 (basic) centrifuges, mitments” limiting the nuclear Tehran’s announcement uranium-enrichment devices, from programme. of renewed nuclear steps 19,000 to 5,000 and agreed to limit “Iran’s statement is carefully Sattracted scant attention. enrichment to 3.7%, well short of worded,” said Richard Dalton, Yet it was US President Donald the 20% reached before the treaty former British ambassador in Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 and which was operationally far Tehran. “Crucially, Iran would still nuclear deal that began the crisis closer to the 90% needed for a be subject to IAEA accounting [in- and it was Trump who rejected the bomb. spections and regular reports] and deal’s separation of Iran’s nuclear Iran announced last May that it it has not said what its operational activities from its missile pro- would take rolling steps breach- requirements for enriched uranium gramme and regional role. ing JCPOA limits. It set a series of will be… They have no known ur- ing of European foreign ministers Security Council] vote. Perhaps “In the world of politics, all ultimatums designed to pressure gent need for either low-enriched January 10 called on Iran to return Iran and the EU prefer to drag this developments are interconnected,” Europe to mitigate punitive US [under 5%] or 20% enriched mate- to JCPOA limits but did not discuss out until the US elections hoping said Abbas Mousavi, Iran’s Foreign sanctions, introduced and sub- rial.” activating the agreement’s disputes for a pro-JCPOA president but how Ministry spokesman, appearing as sequently tightened after Trump Other analysts are less sanguine. procedure, a step that had been they will do so remains unclear, bemused as the journalist who had abandoned the JCPOA. “By my count, installing another widely mooted. especially given the tensions post- asked whether Soleimani’s death First, Tehran increased its stocks 4,000 or so IR-1 centrifuges would Dalton played down talk of new Soleimani.” would prompt Iran to step further of enriched uranium to more than allow them to go back to pre- EU sanctions, perhaps resulting The timetable for November’s US away from its 2015 deal with world 300 kilograms. Second, it enriched JCPOA monthly enriched uranium from Europe activating the dis- presidential election — with Trump powers, the Joint Comprehensive beyond 3.76% to around 5%. Third, production levels of more than 200 putes procedure. “The EU hasn’t seeking a second 4-year term — Plan of Action (JCPOA). it assembled 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 kilograms,” said Elana DeLozier, a reached the end of the JCPOA, may affect Tehran’s decisions over Despite the complications, the centrifuges (more advanced than Washington Institute research fel- although it may do if it moves how quickly to expand its nuclear nuclear issue has a specific logic. the IR-1). Fourth, in November, it low specialised in nuclear prolif- to the dispute-resolution proce- programme, and so, in turn, any The United States and European resumed work with centrifuges at eration and Gulf politics. dure against Iran alone [and not calculations over “break out.” the fortified Fordow facility. “With the advanced centrifuges also against the United States],” Richard Johnson, former coordi- The latest step is a rejection of operating, they could possibly he said. “Iran would see this as nator on the Iran nuclear issue in any limits on enrichment levels go higher. Another decision they punishment and too one-sided to the US State Department, suggest- The timetable for and the number or type of centri- could take is to enrich to 19.75% be credible.” ed on US public radio that Iran’s November’s US fuges. Iran’s programme would again. Or they could stop comply- DeLozier highlighted the next latest steps mean “the timeline has proceed, said the government ing with certain IAEA inspections, IAEA report, due in February. probably shrunk down to maybe 9, presidential election statement, “solely based on techni- subsidiary arrangements or leave “We’ll know more then,” she said. 10 or 11 months.” may affect Tehran’s cal needs.” the additional protocol.” “The dispute resolution timeline is decisions over how This was not, as some had ex- What Iran does may depend only 15-30 days, so if the Europe- Gareth Smyth is a regular pected, an out-and-out rejection of on steps taken by Europe, Russia ans trigger it, it may force a [Euro- contributor to The Arab Weekly. quickly to expand its the JCPOA. Iran said cooperation and China, all working diplomatic pean] decision to officially pull out He has reported from the Middle nuclear programme. would continue with the Inter- channels. An emergency meet- of the JCPOA or trigger a UNSC [UN East since 1992. NATO suspends Iraq mission, yields to Trump’s call to be more involved in the Middle East

potential direct military conflict mately 2,900 European military the possible resumption of NATO’s NATO could contribute more to re- between Iran and the United States, personnel are in Iraq with Operation training mission to Iraq, Stoltenberg gional stability and the fight against leaving NATO forces vulnerable in a Inherent Resolve. said NATO was prepared to continue international terrorism.” John C.K. Daly firefight. Given that the Iraqi parliament training and capacity-building when In a sign that at least one alliance Established in Baghdad in October voted to expel US troops, the future the situation on the ground makes it member regarded the situation as 2018 after three years of war against of NMI personnel posted to Iraq possible. a passing storm, Hungarian Prime he targeted killing of the Islamic State, NATO Mission remains cloudy. Repercussions of Such a possibility, however, Minister Viktor Orban said Hun- Major-General Qassem Iraq (NMI) is a non-combat “train- US President Donald Trump’s rash is contingent on the capricious gary’s 150 NMI soldiers would con- Soleimani, head of Iran’s and-advise” mission to help Iraqi policies towards Iraq could extend diplomatic and military policies of tinue their mission in Iraq’s Kurdish al-Quds Force, by a US security structures and institutions well beyond that country, as the Washington. Since his inauguration region as long as the country’s drone strike has had re- fend off future insurgencies. NMI NATO pullback is a blow to efforts in January 2017, Trump has repeat- bilateral agreement with the Iraqi verberations far beyond includes several hundred staff to keep Islamic State militants from edly denigrated the NATO alliance as government remained valid. TIraq and the Middle East, affecting members from allied countries and regrouping. obsolete and characterised the other In another sign that Trump has the 29-country NATO alliance, in non-NATO countries and non-NATO Hundreds of Western 28 members as fiscal scofflaws. With yet to devise a consistent policy which the United States is the big- partners, including Australia, Swe- soldiers from a broad his latest action, he put alliance on NATO, in comments address- gest and most influential member. den and Finland. coalition of coun- members serving in Iraq in harm’s ing environmental issues January Reports say NATO was given no NMI’s commander is Canadian tries are in Iraq way. 9, he suddenly revisited the topic warning of the strike and scrambled Major-General Jennie Carignan; training local After Iran’s measured counter- and suggested that the alliance be to distance itself from the operation NMI’s forces include 253 Canadians armed forces to strike, Trump said he would ask expanded to include Middle Eastern and provide security for its training out of approximately 500 military take on jihadists NATO to become “much more countries. forces in Iraq. and civilian personnel, NMI’s largest in the country’s involved in the Middle East “I think NATO should be expand- On January 4, the day after foreign contingent. NMI forces are northern moun- process.” ed and we should include the Mid- Soleimani’s death, NATO issued a strictly limited to training and do tains and the Despite Trump’s criticisms dle East, absolutely,” Trump said, statement about various members not deploy alongside Iraqi forces western desert. of the alliance, his request was later adding, “Right now the burden suspending training missions. NATO during operations. Hinting at apparently effective because, is on us and that’s not fair.” spokesman Dylan White said secu- Various NATO members adopted after a phone call between Trump Referring to a phone call with rity concerns for its personnel were different policies about security of and Stoltenberg, NATO issued a Stoltenberg, Trump said that “paramount.” “We continue to take their forces in Iraq. Beyond NMI, statement noting that he suggested a new name all precautions necessary. NATO’s some Canadian troops in Iraq “they agreed that for the expanded alliance: mission is continuing but training participated in Operation Impact, a “I think he was actually ex- activities are temporarily suspend- Canadian regional initiative to train cited about it. I actually had ed,” he said. soldiers in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon a name. NATO, right, and then On January 6, NATO had an emer- and . The Canadian govern- you have ME, Middle East. They gency meeting during which NATO ment determined that all would would call it NATOME.” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg be temporarily moved to Kuwait While the apparent dialling- distanced the alliance from the air because of safety concerns. down of tensions in such a volatile strike while calling for restraint and While the 70 Swedish Armed situation is welcome on all sides, de-escalation, noting that “a new Forces NMI personnel suspended particularly by the long-suffering conflict would be in no one’s inter- operations, the Swedish government Iraqi people, one casualty of recent est.” has no stated plans for withdrawing events is the certainty about NATO’s Growing security concerns after them. Thirty of Germany’s 120 Bun- regional peacekeeping efforts. the US attack prompted some NATO deswehr soldiers in Iraq were to be Whether other NATO or future members to “thin out” the num- sent to Jordan and Kuwait as others NATOME members will be willing to ber of their soldiers posted to Iraq. remain in northern Iraq’s Kurdish put their forces yet again in the fir- NATO discreetly helicoptered nearly region. ing line because of a possible further 500 soldiers out of Baghdad’s Green Croatia has shifted seven of its downturn of US-Iranian relations Zone. 14 NMI soldiers to Kuwait and sent remains to be seen. Some 4,800km to the south-east, the remainder home while Slovakia Reverberations far beyond Iraq. NATO Secretary-General Jens NATO military instructors stiffened withdrew its seven-member train- Stoltenberg delivers a speech during a news conference at the end John C.K. Daly is a Washington- security measures at their bases ing contingent. Above and beyond of the North Atlantic Council meeting focused on the situation based specialist on Russian and while awaiting orders to cope with NATO’s NMI contributions, approxi- concerning Iran, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, January 6. (AFP) post-Soviet affairs. 18 January 12, 2020 Viewpoint Palestine Israel Soleimani’s death deepens chasm between Israelis, Palestinians

mally uses Gaza or the West Bank as punching bags to stoke fears in the Israeli electorate. Kamel Hawwash Netanyahu did distance Israel from the action in Iraq by saying that “the assassination of Soleimani he assassination of Qas- isn’t an Israeli event but an Ameri- sem Soleimani, com- can event. We were not involved mander of Iran’s elite and should not be dragged into it,” al-Quds Force, on orders he was quoted as saying in Israeli of US President Donald news outlets. Trump, brought mixed There is speculation that the Treactions in the Palestinian territo- United States had made Israel ries and Israel. aware of the operation. Barak Israel was, as expected, welcom- Ravid, an Israeli commentator with ing. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin deep sources in the Israeli security Netanyahu said that “just as Israel establishment, said on Channel 13: has the right of self-defence, the “Our assessment is that the United United States has exactly the same States informed Israel about this Show of loyalty. Palestinian Hamas Chairman Ismail Haniyeh delivers a speech during a funeral right. Soleimani is responsible for operation in Iraq, apparently a few procession at Tehran University for commander of al-Quds Force Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi the death of American citizens and days ago.” al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces, January 6. (DPA) many other innocent people. He Reactions in Palestinian areas was planning more such attacks. were split. The Palestinian Author- President Trump deserves all the ity and Fatah did not issue official “Opposition to US and Israeli On the Palestinian street, there by Iran and countries friendly to it credit for acting swiftly, forcefully notices. The only reaction came policies is not weakened but will was condemnation of Soleimani’s are sensitive to that reality in tak- and decisively. Israel stands with from Abbas Zaki, a member of continue as we are strengthened in assassination but also condem- ing positions on issues that divide the United States in its just strug- Fatah’s Central Committee, who our principles and in our faith in the nation of him as a man with the the world into two camps. gle for peace, security and self- claimed that the killing of Soleimani liberation of Jerusalem.” blood of thousands of Iraqis, It is possible to conclude from defence.” would have dire consequences for Islamic Jihad, the organisation Lebanese and Syrians on his observing official and non-official With Netanyahu facing charges of the region and for the United States. most affiliated with Iran, expressed hands. Those who expressed the positions in the Palestinian ter- fraud and bribery as he fights for his Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which great sorrow at Soleimani’s death. latter view objected to Soleimani’s ritories and Israel that there is fear political future in the forthcoming for many years have been support- Abu Hamza, spokesman for Islamic and Iran’s support, as well as that of an escalation that could start an Israeli elections, Trump gifted him ed by Iran, saw things differently. Jihad’s military wing, said that for of their proxies, in shoring up the all-out war between the Americans the possibility of a war between Hamas issued a statement two decades Soleimani had super- Syrian regime, resulting in the and the Iranians. the United States and Iran, which expressing sorrow at Soleimani’s vised Iran’s direct support for the death of hundreds of thousands of While Trump and Iran seem to he could use to sell himself as the death and stressing that he had Palestinians and the provision of civilians. have expressed a similar position strongman needed to counter the strongly supported the “Palestin- military and security expertise for At the official level, the reaction that the assassination and retalia- fallout from that threat. He nor- ian resistance.” Hamas condemned their fighters. to Soleimani’s death highlighted tory rocket attack on a US base in the “ongoing crimes” by the United Other Palestinian factions ex- the problem the Palestinian fac- Iraq, which caused no casualties, States and the tension it caused in pressed sorrow and acknowledged tions have, however large or small, could diffuse the situation, Trump On the Palestinian the region in service to Israel. Iran’s support for the resistance in taking an independent stance once again talked up further sanc- street, there was Hamas Chairman Ismail Haniyeh against Israel. The Popular Front for when they know they rely on po- tions against Iran, while the Ira- joined tens of thousands of Iranians the Liberation of Palestine con- litical support as well as financial nians declared their goal to be the condemnation of at Soleimani’s funeral, declaring demned the killing and acknowl- and military support from external removal of US military presence in Soleimani’s him “a martyr of Jerusalem.” edged Soleimani’s “proactive and actors. the Middle East. assassination but also “We came from Palestine to com- prominent role in embodying the The Palestinian Authority, whose While this current battle appears fort [Iranian] Supreme Leader Aya- position of the Islamic Republic of funding comes mostly from the Eu- to be over, the prospects for war condemnation of him tollah Ali Khamenei and the Iranian Iran by supporting the Palestinian ropean Union and Gulf countries, are not. as a man with the nation for the fall of commander people’s just struggle against the must measure its positions largely Soleimani,” he said. “The assassina- Zionist entity, supporting the in line with that consideration to Kamel Hawwash is a Britain-based blood of thousands on tion requires condemnation from resistance forces and developing ensure political and financial sup- Palestinian university professor his hands. all over the world. their capabilities.” port. Equally, factions supported and writer. US is treading risky path of Israel’s leadership decapitation

The operation was a response to decades, Nasrallah built Hezbol- ment, there is no dispute that it is ferent kind of struggle against its the kidnapping and death of miss- lah into a potent military and a system that works and where no regional enemies. Israel had many ing Israeli servicemen in 1986 and political force, emerging as a more one person, including the su- opportunities to kill Soleimani, Geoffrey Aronson the abduction of US Marine Corps implacable and effective foe than preme leader, is irreplaceable. including the day it assassinated and UN peace-keeping officer Wil- the leader Israel killed in 1992. Orders issued by Presidents Hezbollah’s chief of operations, liam Higgins in 1988. More gener- That is not to say that the Nas- Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, Imad Mughniyeh, in Febru- fter the assassina- ally, the assassination reflected rallah model is the only one and adopted in the wake of embar- ary 2008. Even Israel refrained tion of Qassem the growing threat to Israel posed that by killing Soleimani, Israel rassing revelations about CIA as- from taking the act embraced by Soleimani, Hezbollah by the nascent Shia organisation, and the United States will suffer sassinations, explicitly forbid po- Trump. Secretary-General borne as a consequence of Israel’s the whirlwind of a more effective litical assassination. Nevertheless, There is an ever-present danger Hassan Nasrallah is long occupation of southern successor and opponent. Nor is it it is not unexpected that Trump of overthinking the actions of the Israel’s most im- Lebanon. necessarily the case Soleimani’s would adopt such an initiative. Trump administration. The US placableA enemy and the target of Assassination has long been a successor, Major-General Esmail He is enamoured of the con- president, unlike his predeces- increasing US sanctions. defining feature of Israel’s never- Qaani, will realise Washington’s stant importuning of Israeli Prime sors, is incapable of conceiving The Hezbollah leader’s rise to ending battle against its enemies wish — for it is no more than a Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to and implementing a considered power is an object lesson and a and the unanticipated costs of the wish — for a less capable enemy. take the battle to Tehran and he political and security strategy warning about the unintended operation were not long in com- No matter the outcome, the follows a road travelled by previ- anywhere, including the Middle and unanticipated effects of the ing. Within one month of Musa- decision to kill Soleimani re- ous presidents, Democrat and Re- East. policy of leadership decapitation wi’s death, a horrific attack on the flects Washington’s fundamental publican alike, in (unsuccessful) Instead, the Trump administra- embraced in the skies over Bagh- Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires misreading of how power and pursuit of leaders Washington has tion plays whack-a-mole through- dad by the Trump administration. killed 29 civilians. Islamic Jihad authority work in Tehran. Like tired of, notably Libya’s Muammar out the region and Africa — adopt- Nasrallah took power after Is- declared the attack was carried Israel in its serial assassinations of Qaddafi, Serbia’s Slobodan Milo- ing as policy the ineffective tactic rael in February 1992 assassinated out for the revenge of Hussein, Palestinian leaders Sheikh Ahmad sevic and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. of political decapitation without a Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi, his wife, Musawi’s 5-year-old son. Yassin and Palestine Liberation What is truly alarming is the broader sense of how it fits into a son and four bodyguards. Musawi’s successor was the Organisation leader Khalil al- apparent adoption of this dead- strategy aimed at protecting and then-32-year-old Nasrallah. While Wazir (Abu Jihad) among many end strategy by the top echelons extending US interests. revenge was certainly a motive, others, in US President Donald of Washington’s national security A US State Department official Israel had many Israel also said Musawi’s elimina- Trump’s Washington, military and and defence bureaucracy. The recently suggested to the US tion would reduce Hezbollah’s civilian leaders alike have made idea of a quick fix, oblivious to Congress that things in the Mid- opportunities to kill threat to Israel. the mistake of conflating the man a broader strategic context and dle East might have to get worse Soleimani, including It quickly and painfully disa- for the organisation. dismissive of the options available before they get better. As Bette bused of this flawed assumption. Iran is not some tin-pot dicta- to its opponents, is the defining Davis warned in “All About Eve”: the day it assassinated Over the decades, Nasrallah torship, where “l’etat c’est moi” feature of US foreign and security “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going Hezbollah’s chief of turned the tables on Israel, forc- rules. Iran is a deeply rooted policy in Washington. to be a bumpy night.” operations, Imad ing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud nation with a governing system No doubt Washington is tread- Barak, who, as chief-of-staff, born centuries before Washington ing a path blazed by Israel in its Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resi- Mughniyeh, in ordered Musawi’s death, to retreat existed. No matter one’s views of forever war between wars against dent scholar at the Middle East February 2008. from Lebanon in 2000. Over two the nature of the Iranian govern- Iran but Israel is engaged in a dif- Institute in Washington. January 12, 2020 19 Spotlight Europe

Viewpoint Five years after Charlie Hebdo massacre, debate is unsettled on ‘right’ to offend others

faith should be considered. High-minded lectures from West to East have no real place in Colin Randall the debate. Laws against blasphe- my may globally be in decline. The Western intellect may strug- trawl through his- gle with concepts of restraint, tory for evidence of the wisdom of stepping back to countries permitting avoid touching raw nerves but if unqualified freedom there is sincerity in the professed of expression would desire to achieve what the French be long and, almost call vivre ensemble — different Painful memory. Former French President Francois Hollande and Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo lay certainly,A fruitless. communities setting aside differ- a wreath in tribute to French police officer Ahmed Merabet who was killed by jihadist terrorists the The common cry on Western ences to live together in mutual same day the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo was attacked five years ago, Paris, January 7. (AFP) lips, more shrill than ever in tolerance — it is wrong-headed to an age of keyboard antagonists dismiss how hurtful perceived af- on social media, is: “It’s a free fronts to religious beliefs can be. ing that two French-Algerians ISIS has been defeated militar- The 18th-century French country. I’m entitled to speak my How were Dutch Muslims were among their victims, one ily but mosques under Muslim philosopher Voltaire is credited, mind.” expected to react when the far- of them a policeman and devout Brotherhood or Salafist control among much else, with the very The reality is that there always right, anti-Islam politician Geert Muslim whom they cynically continue to preach disturb- noble thought: “I disapprove of have been limits on what may Wilders marked the closing days finished off as he lay wounded in ing messages. Individuals, the what you say but I will defend to be said, written and published. of 2019 by reviving a cartoon the street. so-called “lone wolves” with the death your right to say it.” Obvious needs to protect national contest in which entrants were On the morning after a Tunisian no direct ISIS guidance, can be The words were not actually his and individual security make it encouraged to mock the Prophet petty criminal drove a 19-tonne turned to violence by exposure but those of a biographer mistak- easy to work out why that should Mohammad? lorry along the Promenade des to online influences. Prisons too enly attributed to Voltaire. How- be the case. Wilders can be disregarded Anglais in Nice on Bastille day often serve as breeding grounds ever, they probably reflect his Five years ago, on January 7, as an odious and inflammatory in 2016, killing 86 people, Ridha for extremists, even when weak, general outlook. That is entirely 2015, an evil attack was carried oaf. Yet it is difficult to imagine Louafi, president of the Cote impressionable young men enter reasonable, subject to the excep- out at the Paris offices of the sa- a snide little competition more d’Azur Association of Tunisians, as no more than minor criminals tions sovereign states correctly tirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. calculated to alienate significant visited the scene. without political or religious make when free speech becomes Twelve people were killed. numbers of people, which may be “Tunisians and other Maghre- thoughts in their heads. a threat to public order. No decent person would precisely what he intended. bis are among the victims, too,” However, if it is hard to make There is, on balance, a right sympathise with the authors of The overwhelming majority he said, “and they are casualties a compelling case for being more in democracies to cause offence the crime, the French-Algerian of those offended would never twice over because of the way alert to one group’s sensitivities but it is interesting to wonder brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi. dream of taking their aggrieved people will now regard them, as to unfettered expression, there is whether Voltaire might have also It was an unpardonable act of feelings any further. if they were somehow responsi- also a pragmatic argument. defended the right of others not barbarity dressed up as vengeance People conveniently forget that, ble for the terrible actions of one Few doubt that gullible teenag- to feel offended and for that sen- for Charlie Hebdo’s irreverent car- for all the empty assertions of its individual.” ers or young offenders should be timent to be respected. toons of the Prophet Mohammad. perpetrators, terrorism is rarely He was right and it would be discouraged from drifting into ex- However, when deciding on respectful of age, gender or faith. irresponsible to pretend Western tremism. Yet, it is also clear that Colin Randall, a journalist based where the line should be drawn Men, women and children are countries are not at risk from indoctrinating potential candi- in London and France, worked between what is and is not ac- all considered legitimate targets, Islamist terrorist attacks, whether dates for radicalisation becomes a in various roles for the Daily Tel- ceptable, a decent person might whichever God they worship. committed in response to a reli- lot less complicated if they can be egraph from 1977-2006 and was recognise that the sensibilities of The Kouachis’ psychopathic gious slight or merely following made to think they are regarded executive editor of the National at Muslims or worshippers of any death lust meant they cared noth- Islamic State (ISIS) exhortations. as inferior or unworthy. its launch in 2008. Europe is offstage in the Middle East, US unilateralism triumphs

Quds Force Major-General Qassem the death of Libyan ruler Muam- the United States and the European European politics. Soleimani, of warning the leader mar Qaddafi might encourage the Union but, in so doing, down- This explains why it makes little of the country that, since 1945, breakup of that weak state. played the point that the erosion difference who is president of the Francis Ghilès has proved a loyal, some would The United States is acting by de- of US world leadership would pose European Commission, the Euro- say subservient ally — the United fault in North Africa while the Eu- greater problems for Europe than it pean Council or in charge of the Kingdom. ropeans look on in horror as Italy, would solve. European External Action Service. n the eve of the US- Nor did he bother to warn French Turkey and Qatar back the interna- The prospect of economic equi- Trump’s unilateralism may be led invasion of Iraq and German leaders, key allies in tionally recognised government in librium with Europe could induce more brutal than the Barack Obama 17 years ago, Lewis an increasingly fractured NATO Tripoli while France, Saudi Arabia, the United States to turn even more or George W. Bush versions but “Scooter” Libby, an of decisions that affect Europe far Russia and Sudanese mercenaries to military solutions with the idea it fits in only too well in a pattern adviser to US Vice- more directly than they do the support the claims of Field-Marshal that this could again make dwarfs of war-making that has seen the President Dick United States. Khalifa Haftar. When America is of the Europeans and giants of the United States and some of its close OCheney, was told by an academic Trump tore up the internation- absent, Europe is powerless. Americans. allies, like the United Kingdom, that “democracy” in Iraq would put ally sanctioned nuclear agreement One needs to look to the 1990s to European integration has focused spend trillions of dollars in asym- the Shia majority to power for the his predecessor had signed with understand the predicament Eu- on the constitutional-political or- metrical conflicts in the Middle first time in centuries. That would Iran — but also with France, the rope finds itself in. The continent’s der and European cultural identity, East and throw up the challenges of increase the influence of Iran, United Kingdom, Germany, Rus- imperial challenge includes two which assumes that Europe had a loss of trade and large waves of im- which the George W. Bush adminis- sia and the United Nations — and distinct and dissimilar parts. long time frame in which to bring migration from conflict zones. tration was dead set against. imposed crippling sanctions on any On the one hand, Europe must together different political cultures. The United States shows no “You understand history; we company doing business in Iran. keep up a two-way relationship Since the collapse of the Soviet interest in how the costs of such make it,” was Libby’s retort. This hurt Iran but also many Euro- with the more powerful United empire, this “slowing down” of his- unresolved challenges end up being From Afghanistan after 2001 to pean companies. States. However, it must take tory has reversed itself. Europeans borne by its European allies. Libya in 2011 and Iran since the The sluggish reaction from the care that its leaders do not simply have been very slow to recognise Events in Baghdad and Tripoli Islamic Revolution in 1979, the European Commission offered a provide resources for US operations that they could no longer afford the suggest US unilateralism is one of a United States has acted unilaterally stark reminder that the new execu- and step in afterward to handle the luxury for a search for a common broader set of factors that will force and shown a lack of understanding tive has its work cut out for it to be consequences without having had identity. European leaders to devise radical- of geopolitical forces shaping the taken seriously as a major geopo- any say in the fundamental politi- The United Kingdom’s decision ly new ways of exercising influence region. litical player. cal-military decisions. Europeans to leave the European Union adds in the periphery of the European That unilaterialism was on brutal Europe has, for too long, fancied must resist marginalisation. to the pressure. In the absence of a Union, in ways that have a greater display in early January when US itself as a major geopolitical player. On the other hand, Europeans Paris-Berlin-London axis, will the affinity with the requirements of President Donald Trump did not In terms of trade, it has the weight must concern themselves with their United Kingdom choose to position empire than with those of an inter- have the savvy, before ordering to influence the course of events, unstable periphery, prevent col- itself on the periphery of Europe state system. Europe’s future will the assassination of the IRGC al- if it plays as a team. The departure lapse and war there without being or will it become a junior partner not be able to do without borrow- of the United Kingdom weakens its drawn into a spiral of expansion of the United States? Brexit also ing from the imperial model. hand but the European Union still that would overtax it. The paradox consolidates Israel position, it car- The United States and Israel has strong cards to play. is that they could suffer impe- ries more weight in Washington and are making history in the Middle There will be no Where the Middle East is con- rial overstretch without being an the Middle East than the European East even if France and the United European capacity cerned, Europe appears to have empire. Union. Kingdom, because of long historical for joint external none but not just because of US The European Union failed to Whatever the answer, there will association, probably understand unilateralism. It is making a com- find an answer to this two-fold be no European capacity for joint that history better than Trump action without a plete mess of Libya, about which challenge because it failed to see it external action without a stronger does. stronger hierarchy France and Italy are at loggerheads, for what it has been for more than hierarchy among European states. supporting opposite factions in a two decades. Europeans reas- If small European countries balk Francis Ghilès is an associate among European conflict started by France in 2011 sured themselves that there was a at this idea, they will only strength- fellow at the Barcelona Centre for states. without thought as to the risk that tendency to equilibrium between en America’s influence over International Affairs. 20 January 12, 2020 Economy

EastMed pipeline Briefs project to fend off Lower energy revenue Turkish hegemony bid deepens Algeria trade deficit

estimated reserves of 16 trillion Algeria’s energy earnings cubic feet (Tcf). dropped 14.7% in the first 11 Environmental concerns raised months of 2019, widening the Jareer Elass over the possible toxicity of emis- trade deficit to $5.8 billion, up 48% sions from the field’s production from a year earlier, customs data platform located 10km offshore de- indicated. n signing a natural gas pipeline layed the start-up of Leviathan but The value of oil and gas exports deal that could be a game gas from the field officially began reached $30.3 billion, accounting changer for Eastern Mediter- flowing in late December. for 92.8% of total sales abroad. ranean gas producers and The Aphrodite gas field, 30km Game changer. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (C), Those exports compared with European energy markets, the north-west of Leviathan in the Cyp- Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiadis (L) and Israeli Prime $35.5 billion in the first 11 months Greek, Cypriot and Israeli gov- riot Exclusive Economic Zone, was Minister Binyamin Netanyahu pose for a photograph ahead of a of 2018. Iernments are squaring off against discovered in September 2011 and signing ceremony in Athens, January 2. (AP) Overall exports stood at $32.6 Turkey’s efforts to press its hegem- is estimated to contain more than 4 billion, against $38.1 billion during onic reach into the Eastern Mediter- Tcf of gas. Production is expected the Eastern Mediterranean, posing a letter to his Greek counterpart, the same period of 2018, while ranean region and beyond. to start in 2024-25, following delays a major obstacle for the proposed Kostis Hatzidakis, in support of the imports fell 8.7% to $38.4 billion Aside from drawing the ire of in renegotiations of a production- line because it would have to cross project but the pipeline agreement in the January-November period Ankara and Moscow, the EastMed sharing agreement between the through the newly established won’t be concluded until Italy signs of 2019. pipeline deal is not without finan- field’s stake holders and the Cypriot Turkish-Libyan economic zone. off on it. cial and technical challenges and government. Ankara is strongly opposed to An Italian media report suggested (Reuters) needs the political and economic Some 1,300km of the EastMed the EastMed pipeline project. there was internal division within will of other players to succeed. pipeline would run in subsea Turkey says it is being intentionally the coalition parties of the recently In a signing ceremony January depths of up to 3,000 metres. excluded from the wealth potential formed Italian government over 2 in Athens, Greece, Cyprus and This will prove to be a consider- of gas developments by its rivals in the merits of the EastMed pipeline Israel agreed to build a $6.7 billion able technical hurdle to overcome the Eastern Mediterranean. versus the Trans Adriatic Pipeline UAE initiates pipeline that is to stretch 1,900km for developer IGI Poseidon — a Turkish Foreign Ministry spokes- project that is to begin carrying multi-entry from Israeli and Cypriot gas fields in 50/50 joint venture of Greek state man Hami Aksoy said: “Any project Azeri gas across Turkey and Greece the Eastern Mediterranean to Italy gas supply company Public Gas disregarding Turkey, which has to Italy and the broader European tourist visas for all via Greece. Corporation of Greece and Italian the longest coastline in the Eastern market this year. If completed, the project would energy firm Edison. IGI Poseidon Mediterranean, and the Turkish The European Union has actively The United Arab Emirates supply the European Union with also faces the challenge of securing Cypriots, who have equal rights supported the EastMed pipeline to introduced a multiple-entry visa 4% of its annual gas needs — 10 the funding for the project, which over the natural resources of the diversify Europe’s energy supplies scheme valid for five years for all billion cubic metres per year — by is to be privately sourced. The con- island of Cyprus, cannot succeed.” and fast-tracked the permitting nationalities, with the aim of turn- 2025, enabling European countries sortium said in December it would Ankara is equally concerned that process for the project. ing the Gulf state into a tourism to diversify from their heavy reli- reach a final investment decision its influence in meeting European That being said, an EU spokes- hub. ance on Russian gas supplies. That by 2022. energy demand would be dimin- man in a Greek One TV channel “The new tourist visa will be pipeline volume could potentially Cypriot President Nicos Anasta- ished by the EastMed project. The interview emphasised that, while valid for five years and can be used double through new compression siades, who attended the Athens European Union imports 40% of its the January 2 agreement was a wel- for multiple entries and is open technology. ceremony alongside Greek Prime gas needs from Russia, with Turkey come development, “the pipeline for all nationalities,” Dubai Media The pipeline would link the Le- Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the vital transit route for most of should be seen as one option of tap- Office wrote in a tweet. viathan field in Israeli waters to the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin those supplies. ping EastMed gas supplies for the In October, Dubai is to host Expo Aphrodite field in Cypriot waters, Netanyahu, said the pipeline agree- The signing of the EastMed European Union alongside shipping 2020, a big-budget global trade transporting that gas to Greece and ment “supports a common aim for pipeline accord was notable for the it to the European Union by tankers fair. then on to Italy. Supplies could peace, security and stability in the absence of Italian representation, in the form of LNG [liquefied natu- continue to Central and Western particularly vulnerable region of which is a significant factor given ral gas]. It’s important to explore (Agence France-Presse) Europe, using existing pipeline the Eastern Mediterranean.” that it will play an important role as further the costs and benefits of networks. The signing of the EastMed both a market for the gas supplies both main options.” The Leviathan field was dis- pipeline project came just weeks and a transit country for volumes covered in 2010 about 120km off after Turkey and Libya agreed to a moving elsewhere in Europe. Jareer Elass reports from Turkish Israel’s coast and is considered one controversial memo of understand- Italian Minister for Economic De- Washington on energy issues for of the world’s largest gas finds with ing demarcating maritime zones in velopment Stefano Patuanelli sent The Arab Weekly. deal-making lowest since 2011 Egypt launches microfinance incentives Ernst & Young Turkey said the disclosed value of mergers and ac- quisitions in Turkey stood at $2.7 billion in 2019, the lowest since at to contain informal economy least 2011, reflecting the effects of recession and the 2018 currency crisis. Mohamed Hammad One of the advantages of microfi- within the financing companies and The National Bank of Egypt aims to The total amount of deals nancing is that it promotes reliance the beneficiary becomes obligated implement the system in cooperation reached $5 billion in 2019 and on insurances in society. For this rea- to pay back in instalments and from with the Alexandria Businessmen As- is expected to total $8 billion in Cairo son, the Financial Regulatory Author- there he can be taxed at a later stage,” sociation, whose umbrella includes a 2020. Both the transaction volume ity requires companies active in mi- Amara said. financial arm for micro-projects. and numbers are expected to he Egyptian government crofinancing to insure loans against For the system to succeed, Cairo Because 99.9% of microfinance increase this year. has begun a microfinancing non-payment risk. This promotes a is relying on the outcomes of experi- recipients repay their loans and be- Ernst & Young added it expected programme called “Nano culture foreign to most Egyptians. ences in India and Bangladesh. The cause loans are quickly recovered, a rise in initial public offerings in T Finance” to integrate the in- Microfinancing companies are re- system of Nano Finance may turn commercial banks have intensified ef- Turkey in 2020. formal economy in the formal sector quired to update client and loan data into a bank for the poor or for micro- forts to offer the product. Banks can and empower economically mar- every two weeks. Hence, the Egyp- finance. get grants dedicated for microfinanc- (Reuters) ginalised people through financing tian Credit Inquiry Company “iS- Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris ing from international institutions, mechanisms that improve their living core,” the only company responsible struggled to establish a bank for fi- which allows them to make signifi- conditions. for credit reporting in the country, in- nancing small projects in the country cant profits. The Financial Regulatory Authority troduced a system of credit informa- but Egypt’s Central Bank refused to Mohamed Nader, president of Morocco to spend said terms and conditions for grant- tion via mobile phones to speed up grant licences to family banks, espe- Archer Financial Consulting and Fi- ing nano loans include a maximum of data collection and reporting, reduce cially after the failed experiment of nance, said: “Nano Finance is an ef- $12 billion to approximately $190 per individual to costs in a manner commensurate the private Nile Bank, now bankrupt, fective product for lifting a large seg- be reimbursed in three months. with the microfinance sector and en- and which was owned by the El Ayou- ment of society out of poverty and secure water Authority Executive Chairman Mo- hance the latter’s integration into the ti family. opening financing horizons for small hamed Omran said “nanofinancing, formal economic system. Sawiris said he was looking to ac- farmers and craftsmen.” supply offered for the first time in Egypt, Egypt’s parallel economy is esti- quire a bank outside Egypt and then The poverty rate in Egypt is about relies very much on digital technolo- mated at $154 billion, representing open a branch in Cairo. He owns a 32.5%, which means that one-third of Morocco will spend $12 billion gies.” He added that “international about 40% of GDP. controlling stake in Rifi Microfinance the population — more than 32 mil- on water supply through 2027 to experiences in microfinancing have Economic analyst Yasser Amara Company, which obtained from the lion people — is at the subsistence meet increasing demand, the state shown the product is used essentially said: “The Nano Finance product Financial Regulatory Authority the level. news agency reported. to meet requirements of marginal- supports the poor class in Egypt, es- first licence to practise microfinanc- Although the microfinance initia- Morocco was ranked the 22nd- ised groups and those most in need pecially craftsmen who need a small ing in Egypt. tive focuses on marginalised groups, most water stressed country in a of financial services and suffer from capital to jump-start their profes- Microfinance is one of the main there are specific groups of profes- report last August by the World difficulty in accessing financing.” sional life.” mechanisms countries use to bring sionals, such as doctors, real estate Resources Institute. Microfinancing seeks to provide He explained the financing offering into the formal economy the thou- brokers and private teachers, who Farm income is volatile in capital needs for small farmers and improves codification of platforms for sands of informal economic actors. operate openly in the parallel econ- semi-arid Morocco, where climate the self-employed, home-based pro- collective funding that have spread The government seeks to generalise omy and do not pay adequate taxes. change has caused droughts and jects, day-to-day sellers and street through social media without su- the mechanism for craftsmen and Appropriate digital systems need to summer flash floods in some areas. vendors and to encourage young peo- pervision or control. He pointed out those wishing to earn a living other track such activities and integrate The programme will include ple to enter self-employment. that the main goal of Nano Finance than in government jobs. them into the formal economic sys- dam building, improving water Nano Finance is considered a tool is to legalise conditions of workers in More effective systems have been tem to increase the country’s re- consumption, preserving water to empower lifestyles of individuals the informal economy and integrate introduced to facilitate payments of sources for funding of health and resources and increasing supply in because it directly promotes financial them into the formal system. loans through mobile phones. Users education services. rural areas, the news agency said. inclusion initiatives in a market dom- “Once the beneficiary obtains a can either use a dedicated applica- inated by cash transactions, away loan from the microfinance com- tion or send text messages with the Mohamed Hammad is an Egyptian (Reuters) from formal financial systems. panies, a quasi-database is created value of the daily instalment. writer. January 12, 2020 21 Economy

Lebanese hotel owners decry faltering tourism sector

Samar Kadi

Beirut

e are struggling and trying to survive, the “ same as the whole W country,” said Pierre Achkar, chairman of the Lebanese Federation for Tourism and presi- dent of the Hotel Owners Associa- tion, summing up the situation of the hospitality sector in Lebanon. “Most of Lebanon’s hotels are par- tially closed while some have closed completely. Some hotels have taken loans with high interest rates to be able to survive. Now they reel under an accumulation of losses and are not able to pay their loans and bank dues,” Achkar said. He said 2018 hotel revenues were “40% less than in 2009-10” and that revenues did not compensate for ac- cumulated losses. “We have been suffering since 2012, many years before the people revolted against the deteriorating economy. The war in Syria had tre- mendous repercussions on the sec- tor. The closure of the land route through Syria deprived Lebanon of more than 350,000 overland travel- lers, including 200,000 Jordanians,” Achkar said. Lebanon’s unprecedented eco- nomic and financial crisis has taken a huge toll on the hospitality sector, a mainstay of the Lebanese economy, with hundreds of restaurants closing and hotel occupancy plummeting. Regional turmoil in addition to tense ties between Lebanon and Gulf countries that banned their na- tionals from visiting Lebanon in Feb- ruary 2016 negatively affected the business. Vulnerable sector. Lebanese police block a road in front of Le Gray Hotel in Beirut. (AP) “For years, we have raised our voices in every forum and confer- ence. We raised our voices with all the presidents, ministers, parlia- December is typically a busy such as Sheraton and Four Seasons, Khoury, who runs the hotel, hotels’ closure due to the econom- mentary blocs and every source of month for the tourism industry have begun sending Lebanese staff a family business, said she had ic crisis. decision. We are revolutionaries be- because of Christmas and holiday members to other hotels in the re- to close part of the hotel, cut on Achkar urged banks to consider cause we insisted on continuing the festivities. Many expatriates who gion to lower expenses. working hours and reduce staff the difficult circumstances the mission of our ancestors and our fa- often return to Lebanon at this Around 500 restaurants in Leba- salaries. country has been through and de- thers who built the tourism sector in time of year are reluctant because non have closed as of December, “We are at a very, very low oc- crease interest rates to allow hotel- Lebanon since the beginning of last of the unrest. Because of the lack of said Tony el-Rami, the head of the cupancy. Out of 75 rooms, only iers to maintain their properties. century,” Achkar added bookings, brand hotels in Lebanon, syndicate of restaurant owners. He 25 rooms are operational. We are Khoury called on the govern- The hospitality business felt the warned that the number will grow overstretched, struggling and ment to exempt hoteliers from economic crunch after anti-govern- as of the beginning of the year. barely surviving. I fear that, if paying value added taxes and oth- ment protests denouncing deterio- Rita Khoury, chairman of the things did not improve, not a sin- er levies and to reduce their elec- rating finances and living conditions More than landmark Chtaura Park Hotel in the gle hotel in Lebanon will be able tricity bills “at least during these swept the country since October 7, eastern Bekaa Valley near the Syr- to survive. We will all be forced to very difficult times.” paralysing businesses with road clo- ian border, said the conflict in Syria shut down,” Khoury said. Lebanon is experiencing the sures and strikes. 150,000 had an extremely damaging effect The climate is starkly different worst financial crisis in its recent Achkar argued that the hospitality on the sector. compared to the “golden period” history. Foreign currencies, no- industry is the most vulnerable sec- hotel owners, “The inflow from Iraq, Jordan of 2009-11 when the hospital- tably the US dollar, have grown tor in Lebanon. “We are the first sec- partners, employees and the Gulf countries was blocked ity sector boomed. The number of increasingly scarce, local banks tor affected by political, economic and their families with the closure of the land route tourists reached a record 2.16 mil- have imposed unprecedented and security conditions and the last through Syria,” Khoury said. “Also, lion and revenues and turnovers capital controls, exacerbating the sector to recover because it requires face imminent the number of Syrian businessmen soared to $9 billion, with 6,000 economic condition and making it external confidence. That is why threat of hotels’ who used to stay at the hotel to con- outlets spread across the country. difficult for businesses to operate. there was no significant improve- clude their commercial transactions More than 150,000 hotel own- ment in occupancy during the fes- closure due to the in Chtaura, where there are more ers, partners, employees and their Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly tive season,” he said. economic crisis. than 18 banks, has become smaller.” families face imminent threat of Travel and Society section editor. Digital economy making inroads in Morocco

Mohamed al-Alawi tional plan to develop broadband ruary 2019 to support digital trans- formation and enhance its posi- said she considers digitisation the internet provided quality tele- formation of the economy. The sup- tion internationally in information backbone of the economic devel- phone service and high-frequency port came within the framework of technology. Authorities want to opment model. Rabat internet connection for 10,740 vil- a broader partnership between Mo- make the most of digitisation and She pointed out that the digital lages using 2G, 3G and 4G technolo- rocco and the World Bank, which stimulate the leadership of infor- transformation represents a real fficial statistics indicat- gies and networks. seeks to harness the potential of mation and communications tech- force for development in all stra- ing significant increases Morocco has experienced an digital technologies to enhance en- nology. Improving access to the tegic sectors for strengthening the in the number of internet increasing spread of internet and trepreneurship, productivity and internet is one of the main goals of Moroccan economy and increasing O users in Morocco are evi- net-generation 4G networks. Mo- e-government initiatives to drive the plan. its international reach. dence of the success of efforts by roccan Prime Minister Saad Eddine innovation and comprehensive de- Moroccan Minister of Indus- Federation Vice-President Yusuf the government to establish a digi- El Othmani has stressed the impor- velopment. try, Investment, Trade and Digital al-Alawi emphasised the trend is tal economy as a gateway towards tance of the communications and Maroc Telecom’s share of the Economy Hafeez Alami said the to make digital transformation a sustainable development. information technology sector, number of subscribers to tel- country hopes to make the digital national priority by combining the Data from the National Telecom- considering it an important point ephone services was about 42% field a lever for development. He digital revolution with culture and munications Regulatory Agency of social and economic develop- — about 20.3 million subscribers. recently said that Digital Morocco capabilities. (ANRT) stated that the number of ment. Orange was reported to have 16 2020 “indicates the start of a new “The process of digitisation, internet service subscribers in Mo- The telecommunications sector million subscribers and Inwi about dynamic of transformation in the which is the true engine for de- rocco exceeded 26 million, distrib- is vital to attract investments, pro- 10.8 million. digital economy sector and for the velopment in Morocco and Africa, uted over Maroc Telecom, Inwi and vide job opportunities and reduce A study by ANRT confirmed the various actors in this sector.” has become a major source work- Orange. regional disparity, in addition to wide use of smartphones to access The government said an increase ing to meet the endless needs of Agency officials said they -ex improving competitiveness of the the internet, which demonstrates in the number of customers in in- citizens,” Alawi said. He added pected the number of domestic tel- economy in international markets. a high level of interest in internet formation technology and related that the challenge is to make hu- ecommunications transactions to Morocco has been investing in services. The study stated that the programmes requires an overhaul man resources the cornerstone of reach 33 billion dirhams ($3.4 bil- digital infrastructure to keep pace largest segment of smartphone us- in management. Saloua Karkri the digital transformation. lion) by the end of 2019, an increase with global transformations. ers were aged 12-24. Belkeziz, president of the Informa- of about $208 million from 2017. Rabat obtained a $610 million Digital Morocco 2020 aims to tion, Communications Technol- Mohamed al-Alawi is a Moroccan The data confirmed that the na- loan from the World Bank in Feb- accelerate Morocco’s digital trans- ogy and Offshoring Federation, writer. 22 January 12, 2020 Society

Saudis resist ‘throwaway’ culture of food waste

Anuj Chopra in a few dizzying decades, food is not simply a source of nutrition but also an expression of cultural iden- Riyadh tity. In a traditional society where social interactions often revolve he plate is designed to around food, enormous displays of make a meal look bigger — it connote affluence. a gastronomic illusion and “In just one generation, Saudi T an innovative way to tame Arabia went from conditions of Saudi Arabia’s pervasive throwa- scarcity to plenty and, for some, way culture, which results in colos- immense wealth,” said Kristin Di- sal food waste. wan, from the Arab Gulf States In- Across much of the Gulf, lavish stitute in Washington. “It’s easy to displays of food are considered a see then how this rather austere cultural totem of generosity and culture would project its wealth hospitality. Much, however, of it into the socially acceptable area of ends up in the trash. hospitality and food.” Saudi households typically serve Many Saudis shrug off stereo- large oval-shaped platters piled types of being gluttons in a country high with rice, a daily staple, but a where local media say more than lot goes to waste as many nibble at 40% of the population is obese. the sides and rarely reach the mid- A recent newspaper cartoon por- dle. trayed a single man hunched over Entrepreneur Mashal Alkharashi a sumptuous spread of steaming is fighting back with a rice plate food and asking a woman donning that makes the portion of food ap- a kitchen apron: “Is this all?” pear bigger. With a mound in the “The only real freedom we have centre, the plate minimises the in an is the free- middle area, prompting people to dom to eat,” said a Saudi academic, (Zainab Mehdi) serve less and save more. who declined to be named. “For a Newcomer. Philip Juma in his JUMA kitchen in Borough Market. “The innovative design, elevated long time, the only entertainment from the middle, reduces waste for Saudis was restaurants and 30%,” Alkharashi said, adding that food.” the plate, adopted by many Saudi “Shop, eat and pray” was long restaurants, has saved more than the motto for many Saudis in an age A savoury taste of Iraq at 3,000 tonnes of rice in recent years. of high oil prices, which long sup- “This way we preserve the gener- ported the government’s cradle-to- osity part while cutting waste,” he grave subsidies but many are re- said. thinking their lifestyle amid rising London’s Borough Market The desert kingdom, which, be- economic pressures as the conserv- cause of its limited arable land and ative kingdom pares back subsidies scarce water resources, is heavily and opens up once-unthinkable Zainab Mehdi contemporary twist but the inno- supportive of JUMA Kitchen, in- reliant on imports to meet its grow- outlets for entertainment, such as vations to traditional meals were cluding Nawal Nasrallah, author of ing food demand, has the world’s cinemas and concerts. largely welcomed. “Garden of Eden: A Cookbook and highest rate of waste. Environmentalists say Saudi Ara- London “The appreciation I received History of the Iraqi Cuisine” and The average Saudi wastes up to bia’s high demand for meat fuels from the Iraqi community has Lamees Ibrahim, author of “The 250 kilograms of food annually, wildfires in the Amazon rainfor- UMA Kitchen, the latest new- pushed me to work even harder. Iraqi Cookbook.” compared to a global average of ests, which make way for livestock. comer to Borough Market, I’ve received gifts from the com- “There have been times when 115 kilograms, Ministry of Environ- The kingdom is one of the biggest adds authentic Iraqi cuisine munity, which is just unbeliev- I’ve reached out to Nawal to ask ment, Water and Agriculture said, importers of Brazilian beef. J to the diverse specialty foods able. One customer, for example, whether if the saffron chicken will costing the country approximately Many young Saudis are shunning offered at one of the largest and bought me an olive tree,” Juma go well on the tasting menu with $13 billion a year. a culture of excess to promote min- oldest food markets in London. said. kubba. She’ll then guide me from The Economist Intelligence Unit imalism and meatless diets, among Founded by British-Iraqi chef “I never thought that my work there,” Juma said. said consumption is far higher than them is chef Almaha Aldossari, Philip Juma, the food stall’s main would have such a positive effect Juma’s cooking experience has the official estimate. It said the -av known on social media as “The specialty is Iraqi kubba, a savoury on people. It’s extremely moving.” been largely inspired by interna- erage Saudi wastes as much as 427 Bedouin Vegan.” treat made of bulgur, minced on- The big break for JUMA Kitchen tional cooks, including Michelin- kilograms every year, underscoring Waste, however, is a relic of the ions and finely ground lean beef, came when an employee from the starred chefs Andrew Wong and what observers call a throwaway oil boom era, limited not just to lamb, goat or camel meat mixed Evening Standard newspaper ex- Phil Howard. consumer culture that undervalues food. It is common to see car en- with Middle Eastern spices. pressed appreciation for the food. Kubba is a work of art for Juma. food. gines idling for hours, a habit that Juma gave up a career in finance “The food is so real and it truly Each piece has its own signature “Since food items and groceries stems from an era when oil was to start his journey as a chef em- did touch me,” Juma quoted the name and distinct taste. Types are abundantly available to all liv- cheaper than water. bracing Iraqi cuisine after realising man as telling him. available at JUMA Kitchen include ing in (Saudi Arabia) and they are Water, too, is wasted even as that a 9-to-5 job in the hectic bus- Attention from media outlets Potato Chap, Mushroom Chap and highly subsidised, the residents the arid kingdom faces declining tle of London did not make him followed. During one of Juma’s Kubba Hamuth. take food for granted,” academics resources. Saudi Arabia consumes happy. catering events, another journal- Juma said he hopes to open a from Riyadh’s King Saud Univer- 263 litres of water per capita per ist from the Evening Standard ap- full-fledged restaurant but, in the sity wrote in a research report last day, double the daily world aver- proached him and asked if he’d meantime, he wants people to re- year. “Food waste in restaurants, age, and the government aims to JUMA Kitchen’s aim is like to write recipes for the news- alise how amazing Iraqi cuisine is. celebrations, social events is enor- reduce it to 150 litres by 2030. quite clear. It is to shed paper. “Forget me and forget JUMA mous… (as) the custom is to pro- Diwan said: “Cultural change light on the positive Juma felt he had the opportu- Kitchen. Iraqi cuisine is just as vide more food than required.” is hard but concerns about en- attributes that Iraq has to nity to move on from hosting pop- amazing as Iraq’s culture, music, The Saudi Food Bank, or Etaam, vironmentalism, sustainability offer — in this case ups and supper clubs to getting civilisation and people,” he said. a charity that collects surplus food and more healthy living among a cuisine. involved in catering, a more stable JUMA Kitchen’s aim is quite from hotels and wedding halls and certain class of Saudis will have source of income. clear. It is to shed light on the posi- distributes it to the needy, called on some effect. These are the seeds of “Growing up, I would always eat Since its opening, JUMA Kitchen tive attributes that Iraq has to offer the government to penalise waste. change.” amazing street food in London. has attracted a wide range of in- — in this case cuisine — rather than In Saudi Arabia, where vast oil Iraqi food, however, was nowhere ternational customers but, despite the negative attributes that have reserves reaped enormous wealth (Agence France-Presse.) to be seen. I have been eating Iraqi the relative success, Juma said he dominated international media. food for all my life and so when I has a lot to do to promote Iraqi cui- began a new journey, I really want- sine and make it as familiar as Thai Zainab Mehdi ed to put the cuisine out there,” and Indian cuisines. is an Arab Juma said. “Not everyone is famil- Weekly He started organising pop-up iar with kubba and so, intern. events in 2013 to “give it a go” by sometimes, people experimenting with ingredients will walk past our and flavours. Once satisfied with stall. While there the experimental dishes, he tar- are some who will geted venues across London with be intrigued and tasting menus, usually consisting willing to try some- of five courses. thing new, there “Of course, there was always will also be those kubba and dolma (meat and spiced who are not willing rice wrapped in vine or cabbage to spend 8-10 pounds leaves), involved in the menu,” he on lunch that they’re said. Kubba is shaped into balls or not familiar with,” he patties and baked, cooked in broth said. or served raw. Notable chefs and cook- Juma’s pop-ups attracted a book authors have been Western crowd mainly, rather than Iraqis. He said he was wary of criti- With a contemporary twist. A type of Kubba specialty available More than required. Saudi volunteers, with the Saudi Food Bank cism of his cooking by the Iraqi at JUMA Kitchen. (Zainab Mehdi) or Etaam, pack leftovers into boxes. (AFP) community because it came with a January 12, 2020 23 Culture

Sudanese artist brings lifelong experience to Manama

Zaki al-Soudeir

Manama

retrospective exhibi- tion, called “Beyond the Silence,” of the work of A Rashid Diab showcases works from various stages of the life of the Sudanese artist through paintings, carvings, sculptures and drawings. The exhibition, sponsored by the Bahrain Authority for Culture and Antiquities, is to run at the Bahrain Museum in Manama through Febru- ary 15. It was in the Sudanese city of Wad Madani, within the generosity of its African beauty and the charm of its popular myths, that Diab devel- oped his talent. Its variety of artistic activities and the work of popular artists in depicting the daily life of its inhabitants shaped Diab and his artistic talent. His work is steeped in an awareness of his homeland’s cultural heritage. Diab said his inspiration came from the silence of vast desert ex- panses, the colourful banks of the Nile River and the suffering of Su- A fascination with colours. A painting by Sudanese artist Rashid Diab. (Al Arab) danese women. Those factors inter- twined with his Western diaspora experience in Spain. outer curves, ripples and colours artist and a free thinker. With his During the second stage of his experimenting with techniques and Diab carries the obsession of the of Sudanese women. By depicting abilities, insightful vision and per- artistic career (1986-90), Diab was exploring my capacities to express plastic artist and his questionings them in a variety of contexts, he severance, he believes he can bring influenced by works common in the myself freely. are expressed in colours, shapes sought to recapture the emotions of back awareness to a country that has Renaissance, especially oil paint- “I’m fascinated by colours be- and shades of light. Those aspects being with his mother. been in deep hibernation for a long ings. He mastered the technique of cause they constitute the most carry the secrets of his identity and “In every woman, I hear my moth- time.” flooding canvas space with gradient important aspect in my creative artistic experience. His work is real- er’s voice when I was a child telling Diab’s formative experience can colours and images. process. I do not share the Western istic as much as it is abstract but it me that I was an artist,” he said. be divided into three distinct artistic In large spaces, he favoured play- view that an artist’s success is in his is, above all, emotional and smooth He said he admires the endless stages that shaped his world and ar- ing with light and shade while re- commitment to one technique or flowing, just like the flow of the Nile. flowing generosity of the Nile and tistic interests and inquiries. taining the completed shapes and style that will characterise his work As a child, Diab played with clay, the deep silence and beauty of the colours from the previous stage. throughout his life. I consider my- shaping it in a variety of ways. He desert. This stage was marked by a high de- self in a constant state of research moved to drawing on paper and “Rashid Diab is a Sudanese art- Diab’s artistic inspiration gree of maturity, refined style and and transformation. I produce what cloth until he discovered the magic ist with great talent in colouring, comes from women, the sensitivity in his works, especially I like at a given moment and in the of colours and their strength, which drawing and printing. He has had Nile and the desert. in his collection “Memories of the style that I like. For me, art is a hu- opened new doors for his creativity. extensive academic artistic educa- Migratory Bird” (1989), in which he man condition.” Diab loved Sudan and its silent tion inside and outside Sudan and During his beginnings as an artist revisited his childhood dreams and The Bahrain Authority for Culture desert environment, so he travelled is also known as an intellectual who (1983-86), Diab immersed himself souvenirs. and Antiquities issued a book about all over the country to experience is deeply aware of the culture of Su- in the shapes and patterns of Arabic Diab called the third stage of his “Beyond the Silence” documenting the beauty of its colours and land- dan and its people,” said artist Ibra- calligraphy, drawing verses of the career (1990-93) “The passion for Diab’s career and highlighting his scapes. He moved to Spain to enrich him al-Salhi. Quran on the upper side of his paint- colour period.” role in the cultural and social de- his creative experiences before re- “He is very helpful to creative Su- ings. His distinct calligraphic style “Sometimes my relationship velopment of Sudanese society. It turning to his homeland to carry out danese artists of all ages, hoping to carries the stamp of the teachings of with techniques, styles and tools includes numerous illustrations of his aesthetic and artistic message. revive artistic life in Khartoum fol- Quranic schools in Sudan. The influ- becomes a source of overwhelm- his works, representing the various Diab’s artistic inspiration comes lowing years of neglect. He is one ence of known Sudanese artists in ing feelings of anxiety and some- periods of his artistic development. from women, the Nile and the de- of those who execute what they de- this domain is quite visible in Diab’s times of contentment,” he said. “I sert. He found inspiration in the cide upon because he is a dynamic work. work with the idea of ​​constantly Zaki al-Soudeir is a Saudi writer. Tutankhamun still draws large crowds in London

Karen Dabrowska on tour, the Egyptian Ministry of mained in Egypt but the replica in- State for Antiquities said. cluded in the exhibition is brilliant. Tickets in London have been Tutankhamun is lying peacefully London sold for half-hour slots through- covered in amulets and gold with out the day and far too many visi- gold finger coverings and gold san- London exhibition mark- tors are packed into each time slot. dals, a scarab beetle on his chest. ing the 100th anniver- The crowds trying to read the brief Small models of shabtis ordinary sary of the discovery of but informative descriptions of the workers were entombed with Tut- A Tutankhamun’s tomb in artefacts in large glass cases de- ankhamun so they could serve him Egypt’s Valley of the Kings by Brit- tract from an amazing collection of in the afterlife. ish archaeologist Howard Carter is unique objects housed in Tutankha- There are films and cinematic drawing large crowds to admire the mun’s tomb. lighting. Full-size replicas of wall 150 masterpieces belonging to the Tutankhamun (reigned 1333- paintings in the tomb combine with king before they return to Egypt. 1323BC) was the 11th pharaoh of eerie shadows drawing attention to London is the third leg of the the 18th dynasty of ancient Egypt. the inevitability of death and the world tour of “Tutankhamun: Uncertainty surrounds Tutankha- craving for something beyond. Treasures of the Golden Pharaoh,” mun’s death. He may have been as- The final rooms focus on the dis- which opened in March 2018 in Los sassinated or died as the result of an covery of the tomb and photographs Angeles before travelling to Paris, injury received while hunting. He from the excavation. Quotes from where it became France’s most vis- became famous because his tomb Carter can be heard via the audio ited of all time with an attendance was intact when it was discovered guide and in short videos. Special of more than 1.4 million. in 1922. attention has been paid to Hussein The discovery of Tutankhamun’s Abdel-Rassoul, Carter’s water boy The exhibition focuses mummy revealed that he was about Gold dominates. A journey back into history. who accidentally uncovered the 17 when he died and was likely to step in the sand that led to the tomb. on the numerous objects Tutankhamun sarcophagus. Hawk with a golden solar disc. have inherited the throne at the age (The Saatchi Gallery) (The Saatchi Gallery) Abdel-Rassoul’s son, who works in created more than 3,300 of 8 or 9. He was the son of Akhen- the Valley of the Kings, is pictured years ago by Egypt’s aten, known as the “Heretic King” holding his father’s photograph. top craftsmen for because he replaced the traditional believed that Tutankhamun would Gold dominates. There are gold At the end of the exhibition, there Tutankhamun to take cult of Amun with his solar deity face a daunting passage through the leaf statues and gold leaf adorns the is a colossal statue of Tutankhamun with him to the afterlife. Aten. 12 gates of the netherworld before wooden chests filled with clothes, and visitors exit into the gallery When Tutankhamun ascended reaching paradise. Hundreds of ob- linens and jewellery. There are food shop with souvenirs ranging from With tickets selling for up to $50, to the throne, his administration jects were placed in his tomb to help baskets and labels on wine jars that the brilliantly illustrated catalogue the exhibition at the Saatchi Gallery restored the former religion. The him on the journey. list the vintage and the name of to scarab beetles. is Britain’s most expensive. current exhibition features images The sumptuous selection features the winemaker. Tutankhamun has “Tutankhamun: Treasures of the The proceeds will support the of the hawk with a gold solar disc on scale models of wooden boats to many portraits. Some show him Golden Pharaoh” is at the Saatchi Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo, its head that represents Horus. help him navigate, vessels of trans- hunting while in others he is riding Gallery London through May 3. The which is opening this year. When The exhibition focuses on the lucent white calcite, a bed with a tamed beast to a gold shrine on a exhibition will also travel to Austral- the show completes its tour of ten numerous objects created more lovely lion paws, a dainty portable sledge and crushing his enemies. ia, Japan, Canada and South Korea. cities, Tutankhamun’s artefacts will than 3,300 years ago by Egypt’s top board game, bows and staffs inlaid He is also depicted with his wife return to Egypt and become a per- craftsmen for Tutankhamun to take with precious stones and decorated Ankhesenamun. Karen Dabrowska is an Arab manent display, never to again go with him to the afterlife. Egyptians with falcons and cobras. Tutankhamun’s mummy has re- Weekly contributor in London. 24 January 12, 2020 Places to Go www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through April 4

Sponsored by the Dubai Cul- ture and Arts Authority, the tenth Live Our Heritage Fes- tival, organised on the theme “An Eye on Emirati Heritage,” invites visitors to better under- stand the legacy and customs of the people of Dubai. Activi- ties include traditional crafts, national folk songs and herit- age workshops.

Muscat: January 16-February 15

The annual Muscat Festival in Oman features nightly fire- works, traditional Omani music performances, local cuisine, craft displays, exhibitions from regional countries and tradi- tional dancing.

Marrakech: January 26

A house on the outskirts of Marrakech. (AFP) More than 8,000 runners from all over the world will be racing in the Marrakech International Marathon in Morocco. Many international sports personali- Marrakech a magnet of foreign ties will participate in the race while various touristic activi- ties and street shows take place investment in real estate during the event. Dubai: February 3-4 Zainab Mehdi needed hard currencies, foreign investments in housing increased Italian pianist Ludovico Ein- inequalities, a key problem of the audi will take the Dubai Opera Marrakech Moroccan economy. Lavish hotels, stage to perform a selection estates and restaurants in the main of new compositions from orocco’s real estate cities are surrounded by slums and his latest album, “Seven Days market has been show- rural areas of profound poverty. Walking.” The album includes ing signs of recovery “Over the past couple of years, selections from scores for films M for the first time in six there has been a lot of property such as “The Intouchables” years, particularly in Marrakech, construction. When people come and “Acquario.” which is increasingly attracting to Marrakech now, they will see a foreign buyers. lot more cranes than five years ago Tunis: Higher-end villas in Palmeraie, when there wasn’t much construc- February 5 an oasis with several thousand tion going on.” Said Nik Kapur, palm trees outside Marrakech, an agent with M2Morocco, a real Organised and performed were in higher demand from for- estate agency in London and Mar- by Oriental Melody Troop, eigners in 2018-19, data indicate. rakech. Rahabeniet II features the Moroccan riads — traditional man- The main developments are tak- Rahbani brothers’ diverse mu- sions with courtyards — have also ing place in Gueliz, which is known sic pieces. The show will take seen increased demand. for modern restaurants, fast-food place at the Municipal Theatre chains and big brand stores, and of Tunis Hivernage, the spot for high-class The French rank first for hotels, sophisticated restaurants buying properties because Beirut: and stylish bars. Both are in the February 18-March 22 of Morocco’s proximity to newer part of Marrakech. Europe and historically Morocco has a great reputation Al Bustan International Festival strong business ties in terms of obtaining construction of Music and the Performing between the French and permits. The 2019 Doing Business Arts is a musical celebration Moroccans. rated Morocco very highly — 30th that takes place at various out of 160 countries, on proce- A mansion in Marrakech. (Zainab Mehdi) venues in Beirut and promotes The increase in foreign invest- dures, time and costs for obtaining music from all over the world. ment in Morocco’s real estate sec- a permit. The festival includes orchestral tor, especially in the Medina of Massive upgrades of Morocco’s new part of the city, particularly in ing in lavish and modern guest- concerts, choral music, opera Marrakech, resulted in soaring airports and motorways have Gueliz and Hivernage, has seen a houses. Everyone wants to live and dance performances. housing prices that became unaf- made travel to the country much dramatic change with new devel- there.” fordable for many residents, who easier. opments,” Kapur said. “Foreigners The French rank first for buying Hurghada, Egypt: relocated to suburban areas. “I’ve been going back and forth who used to live in the old town properties because of Morocco’s March 2-9 While they brought in much- to Marrakech for 15 years. The are slowly moving out and relocat- proximity to Europe and histori- cally strong business ties between Egypt Sensual Festival 2020 the French and Moroccans. They offers dancing, workshops are followed by British, Italian and and performances from artists Spanish buyers. who will teach and dance with Nationals from the Arab Gulf visitors. The event features countries have also been purchas- pre-parties, pool parties, beach ing properties in the high-end parties, boat parties, work- market. shops, shows and live music “Arabs from the Gulf have been performances. mostly purchasing properties with a price tag of ($1.1 million-$5.6 mil- Dubai: lion). These are used as holiday March 5-7 homes, rather than permanent residencies,” Kapur said. Taste of Dubai is an extrava- “The luxury market of Mar- ganza of food, drink and music rakech, which is concentrated in at the Dubai Media City Am- three neighbourhoods, has aver- phitheatre. The event features age prices three times higher than cooking demonstrations by the general market,” he said. world-class celebrity chefs, “Most appealing in terms of in- cookery workshops, food and vestment is the neighbourhood drink stalls, tastings and more. of Gueliz, with an average price per square foot of $207 for recent properties, which has seen a huge We welcome submissions of growth in demand over the last calendar items related to two years, followed by the more cultural events of interest to classic districts of Hivernage ($362 travellers in the Middle East per square foot) and Palm Grove and North Africa. ($312 per square foot), which are in discrete and elegant areas with Please send tips to: easy accessibility to the main ser- [email protected] The modern part of Marrakech. (Zainab Mehdi) vices of the city,” he added.