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MAX - MENA Region Daily Summary - June 26, 26 2021 JUN 12:07 UTC

The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security.

Highlights of the Day

Algeria: PM Djerad submits his government’s resignation to President Tebboune on June 24; part of constitutional procedure to form new government Israel: Honduras inaugurates embassy in Jerusalem on June 24; liable to bolster economic ties between countries Israel & Turkey: passes bill banning symbols of Hamas, PKK on June 25; shows strong relations with Israel, Turkey & : Houthis claim on June 24 UAV attack on military training camp in Najran’s al-Wadiah; scope likely exaggerated Turkey: Militant plot targeting AKP official foiled in Sanliurfa Province on June 24; notable as attack plot likely in advanced stage

Actionable Items

Tunisia: Government extends nationwide night curfew between 22:00 (local time)-05:00 until July 11; adhere to government instructions

According to the state news agency, the government has decided to extend the ongoing nationwide night curfew until July 11. The curfew will be imposed every night between 22:00 (local time) and 05:00. However, a full lockdown will be imposed in areas where more than 400 people out of a population of 100,000 have been infected with the virus, such as in Tataouine Governorate’s town of Remada. This decision has been taken to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus in .

Those operating or residing in Tunisia until at least July 11 are advised to adhere to government instructions and take necessary precautions to ensure business continuity due to the extension of the night curfew and other restrictions on operations.

Notable Events

Algeria: PM Djerad submits his government’s resignation to President Tebboune on June 24; part of constitutional procedure to form new government

page 1 / 5 Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad submitted his government’s resignation to President . On June 26, Tebboune will start consultations with leaders of political parties and representatives of independent winners of the June 12 legislative elections to nominate candidates for the new government.

This is part of the constitutional procedure of forming a new government in Algeria and follows the official declaration of the legislative election results on June 23, in which the National Liberation Front (FLN) won 98 seats, the independents won 84 seats, and other parties won a total of 224 seats in the People’s National Assembly (APN), which comprises 407 seats. As the relatively reduced vote share of the FLN and a significantly high vote share of independent candidates indicates voters’ disillusionment with the government, President Tebboune may seek to include independent candidates in the new government to appease the public. The government formation process may nevertheless be protracted due to the lack of a clear majority for any group or party, which necessitates compromise and alliances between groups with differing ideologies and political agendas for a coalition.

Egypt: Two EAAF personnel reportedly killed, three wounded in IED attack in Bir al-Abd on June 24; reiterates threat of militancy in region

The roadside IED targeted a vehicle belonging to the Egyptian Armed Forces (EAAF).

While the attack is unclaimed as yet, it was likely conducted by the Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Wilayat Sinai. This comes amid an overall decline in IS activity in North Sinai Governorate’s Bir al- Abd in 2021, partly due to the success of EAAF’s counter-militancy operations and partly because of Wilayat Sinai’s strategy of periodically shifting operational bases between hotspots such as Bir al- Abd, Sheikh Zuwaid, and Rafah in order to overstretch the EAAF’s resources. The latest attack may have occurred in response to the EAAF’s killing of eight IS militants in Bir al-Abd on June 14. This shows that despite a decline in IS activity in the region, the group continues to maintain the capabilities required to successfully target EAAF personnel in Bir al-Abd. The latest attack will elevate the EAAF’s perception of the threat of militancy in Bir al-Abd, especially due to IS’s reported success in causing EAAF casualties. This will lead to bolstered counter-militancy operations in the region over the coming days and weeks.

Israel: Honduras inaugurates embassy in Jerusalem on June 24; liable to bolster economic ties between countries

The embassy was inaugurated in the Malha neighborhood in southern Jerusalem, amid an official visit by Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez.

This makes Honduras the fourth country to move its embassy to Jerusalem following the US, Guatemala, and Kosovo. President Hernandez and the Honduran government have been considered supportive of Israel. This is likely partially based on the fact that Honduras is a close ally of the US, and also has a large community of Evangelical Christians, who strongly support Israel. During a conversation between President Hernandez and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both leaders had committed themselves to open their respective embassies in each others’ capitals in September 2020. The leaders also discussed developing partnerships in tourism, investment, technology, agriculture, education, and trade. The latest development will thus foster Jerusalem’s process of opening its own embassy in Tegucigalpa, and will bolster business and economic relations between the countries over the coming months. This was also highlighted in President Hernandez’s recent remarks that positive relations with Israel would benefit Honduraz’s agriculture, innovation, and tourism sectors.

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Israel & Turkey: Germany passes bill banning symbols of Hamas, PKK on June 25; shows strong relations with Israel, Turkey

The German parliament’s lower house passed a bill banning symbols of groups on the European Union (EU) “terror list”, including the Gaza-based Hamas and the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Hamas has been designated as a militant group by Israel, while the PKK is similarly classified by Turkey. The law is yet to be approved by the parliament’s upper house.

The ban on Hamas symbols is particularly notable as it follows widespread pro-Palestinian and anti- Israel protests in Germany in May, which reportedly witnessed burning of Israeli flags, and display of anti-semitic sentiments. Thus, the bill is aimed at placating Germany’s Jewish citizens as well as reiterating the country’s strong relations with Israel. Similarly, the ban on PKK symbols will be viewed as a positive measure, and thus strengthen cooperation between Berlin and Ankara. However, the measure will aggrieve pro-Palestinian and pro-PKK segments in Germany, who will perceive this as biased and restrictive of their freedom of expression. This decision overall signals that German foreign policy in the Middle East continues to favor traditional allies such as Israel and Turkey.

Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israel extends Gaza’s fishing zone on June 24; aims to foster stability along Israel-Gaza border

Israel also approved the import of raw materials into the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border-crossing for vital civilian purposes.

Despite the June 21 ceasefire, tensions between Israel and Gaza-based militants have not entirely subsided as underscored by the Israeli airstrikes within the Gaza Strip on June 15-16 in retaliation to the launch of incendiary balloons into southern Israel. This constituted an Israeli effort to set a new equation vis-a-vis Hamas based on which even low-scale acts of militancy from Gaza would trigger an Israeli response. Although Hamas has threatened Israel with retaliation, this is largely rhetoric as it is currently not in the Palestinian militant group’s interest to escalate tensions with Israel. This is underscored by the fact that no major incendiary balloon attacks have been recorded along the Israel-Gaza border in recent days. The latest Israeli measure is thus likely meant to project that it will respond to stability along its southern border by alleviating its blockade over the Gaza Strip. Israel may announce further such measures to encourage Hamas to contain any form of cross-border violence.

Palestinian Territories: Tear gas used to disperse protesters marching towards Presidential Palace in Ramallah on June 24; protests to recur

The protesters were demanding the resignation of Palestinian Authority (PA) President, . Meanwhile, the US Department of the State expressed concern over the PA’s “restrictions on the exercise of freedom of expression by Palestinians and harassment of civil society activists”. Mohammad Ibrahim Shtayyeh, the Prime Minister (PM) of the Palestinian National Authority ordered a probe into the death of activist, Nizar Banet, on June 24.

This protest comes amid elevated tensions in the West Bank following Banet’s death and is indicative of the belief among a certain segment of the locals that Banat may have been killed purposefully by the PA’s security apparatus due to his critical stance towards Abbas. Shtayyeh’s directive will likely be perceived as an appeasement measure, especially given security forces’ use of tear gas to disperse the gathering in Ramallah. This may exacerbate anti-PA sentiments and trigger further unrest in the West Bank over the coming days. The PA will likely perceive these demonstrations as a

page 3 / 5 challenge to its authority in the West Bank and will thus direct security forces to crackdown on such gatherings.

Saudi Arabia & Yemen: Houthis claim on June 24 UAV attack on military training camp in Najran’s al-Wadiah; scope likely exaggerated

According to the official Houthi news agency, ten “Qasef-2K” unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used to target the command center, training sites, and other facilities within the military training camp. The attack resulted in the killing and wounding of more than 60 Saudi soldiers and officers. Saudi authorities have not released a statement regarding the incident at the time of writing.

While the Houthis have claimed persistent attacks targeting military and civilian sites including air bases and airports in Saudi Arabia’s southern provinces, this is the first claim against a military training camp in Najran over recent months. Al-Wadiah is located less than ten km from the border with Yemen. Hence, it is possible that Riyadh did not intercept the UAVs in time due to the significantly short flight duration of the UAVs over Saudi airspace. However, given the lack of independent corroboration and the Houthis’ known tendency to inflate the success of their attacks, the scope, and especially the extent of casualties are likely exaggerated. Nevertheless, further Houthi-launched cross-border attacks are likely over the coming days.

Syria: IS on June 24 claims targeting SDF military truck in Deir Ezzor’s Khusham; reiterates group’s capabilities in province

The Islamic State (IS) claimed that the IED attack in the al-Izba area wounded two Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) personnel. Meanwhile, reports attributed an ambush attack on an SDF bus in Deir Ezzor’s Jazarat Milaj on June 25, which killed three personnel and wounded six, to IS.

The attacks reiterate IS’s sustained operational capabilities across Deir Ezzor Province, particularly in SDF-controlled territory. Similarly, on May 9, IS reportedly targeted a bus carrying SDF troops in Deir Ezzor’s Kibar, which killed and wounded at least seven personnel. These attacks are motivated by the SDF’s significant role in anti-IS operations in the region. By targeting SDF personnel, IS seeks to diminish the SDF’s manpower and thereby disrupt its counter-militancy operations. The latest attacks were likely facilitated by the group’s sleeper cells that maintain hideouts in the sparsely- populated Badia desert, which spans from Homs to Deir Ezzor. Therefore, despite frequent anti-IS operations by the SDF, the group will sustain an operational presence in Deir Ezzor Province. This will lead to further attacks targeting the SDF over the coming weeks.

Turkey: Militant plot targeting AKP official foiled in Sanliurfa Province on June 24; notable as attack plot likely in advanced stage

The militant was detained in Birecik District after he infiltrated from through the Ain al-Arab border-crossing. The detainee was affiliated with the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which is considered by Turkey as the Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). He sought to establish a militant network and attack a Justice and Development Party (AKP) deputy in the province. Nine other collaborators were subsequently arrested and a large cache of weapons was seized.

The PKK has thus far conducted 13 attacks targeting individuals and entities perceived to be linked to the AKP-led government in 2021. While the latest attack plot was thwarted prior to its materialization, given that the YPG militant had at least partially succeeded in his mission to

page 4 / 5 establish a network and acquire weapons, he was likely in an advanced stage of planning an attack. The militant’s ability to infiltrate Turkey highlights the gaps in security protocols along the Turkey- Syria border. Therefore, the Turkish authorities will increase their vigilance in these border areas and carry out additional counter-militancy operations to dismantle the PKK’s cross-border supply lines.

Yemen: STC official survives assassination attempt in Aden’s al-Buraiqeh District on June 24; highlights deteriorating security environment

Unidentified gunmen opened fire at the vehicle of a Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) high- ranking official. The official survived the assassination attempt but was fatally injured.

This comes amid frequent politically motivated assassination attempts of government-linked officials in southern Yemen, including Aden. This incident highlights the deteriorating security situation in al- Buraiqeh District, as additionally evidenced by the June 20 IED explosion targeting an STC military headquarters in the district. The fact that the official was targeted after he left his residence, indicates that the perpetrators were monitoring his movement and were likely waiting outside his residence to follow him, which signals their resolve to conduct a successful attack against the former. Given tensions surrounding the sharing of power between STC and Hadi-linked actors in Aden, it is likely that the perpetrators were affiliated with the latter. More specifically, the al-Islah party, which is affiliated with the Hadi-led government, was the most likely perpetrator due to their ideological differences with the UAE-backed STC forces. Regardless, further such attempts to assassinate government and security officials will continue in Aden over the coming weeks.

Upcoming Notable Dates

June 30

Egypt: June 30 Revolution Anniversary

July 1

Egypt: Bank Holiday

July 5

Algeria: Independence Day

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