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MAX Security Report Intel@Max-Security.Com +44 203 540 0434 MAX Security Report [email protected] +44 203 540 0434 Daily MAX - MENA Region Daily Summary - June 26, 26 2021 JUN 12:07 UTC The following report reviews current events in the MENA region and their possible effect on business continuity and security. Highlights of the Day Algeria: PM Djerad submits his government’s resignation to President Tebboune on June 24; part of constitutional procedure to form new government Israel: Honduras inaugurates embassy in Jerusalem on June 24; liable to bolster economic ties between countries Israel & Turkey: Germany passes bill banning symbols of Hamas, PKK on June 25; shows strong relations with Israel, Turkey Saudi Arabia & Yemen: Houthis claim on June 24 UAV attack on military training camp in Najran’s al-Wadiah; scope likely exaggerated Turkey: Militant plot targeting AKP official foiled in Sanliurfa Province on June 24; notable as attack plot likely in advanced stage Actionable Items Tunisia: Government extends nationwide night curfew between 22:00 (local time)-05:00 until July 11; adhere to government instructions According to the state news agency, the government has decided to extend the ongoing nationwide night curfew until July 11. The curfew will be imposed every night between 22:00 (local time) and 05:00. However, a full lockdown will be imposed in areas where more than 400 people out of a population of 100,000 have been infected with the virus, such as in Tataouine Governorate’s town of Remada. This decision has been taken to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Tunisia. Those operating or residing in Tunisia until at least July 11 are advised to adhere to government instructions and take necessary precautions to ensure business continuity due to the extension of the night curfew and other restrictions on operations. Notable Events Algeria: PM Djerad submits his government’s resignation to President Tebboune on June 24; part of constitutional procedure to form new government page 1 / 5 Prime Minister Abdelaziz Djerad submitted his government’s resignation to President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. On June 26, Tebboune will start consultations with leaders of political parties and representatives of independent winners of the June 12 legislative elections to nominate candidates for the new government. This is part of the constitutional procedure of forming a new government in Algeria and follows the official declaration of the legislative election results on June 23, in which the National Liberation Front (FLN) won 98 seats, the independents won 84 seats, and other parties won a total of 224 seats in the People’s National Assembly (APN), which comprises 407 seats. As the relatively reduced vote share of the FLN and a significantly high vote share of independent candidates indicates voters’ disillusionment with the government, President Tebboune may seek to include independent candidates in the new government to appease the public. The government formation process may nevertheless be protracted due to the lack of a clear majority for any group or party, which necessitates compromise and alliances between groups with differing ideologies and political agendas for a coalition. Egypt: Two EAAF personnel reportedly killed, three wounded in IED attack in Bir al-Abd on June 24; reiterates threat of militancy in region The roadside IED targeted a vehicle belonging to the Egyptian Armed Forces (EAAF). While the attack is unclaimed as yet, it was likely conducted by the Islamic State (IS)-affiliated Wilayat Sinai. This comes amid an overall decline in IS activity in North Sinai Governorate’s Bir al- Abd in 2021, partly due to the success of EAAF’s counter-militancy operations and partly because of Wilayat Sinai’s strategy of periodically shifting operational bases between hotspots such as Bir al- Abd, Sheikh Zuwaid, and Rafah in order to overstretch the EAAF’s resources. The latest attack may have occurred in response to the EAAF’s killing of eight IS militants in Bir al-Abd on June 14. This shows that despite a decline in IS activity in the region, the group continues to maintain the capabilities required to successfully target EAAF personnel in Bir al-Abd. The latest attack will elevate the EAAF’s perception of the threat of militancy in Bir al-Abd, especially due to IS’s reported success in causing EAAF casualties. This will lead to bolstered counter-militancy operations in the region over the coming days and weeks. Israel: Honduras inaugurates embassy in Jerusalem on June 24; liable to bolster economic ties between countries The embassy was inaugurated in the Malha neighborhood in southern Jerusalem, amid an official visit by Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez. This makes Honduras the fourth country to move its embassy to Jerusalem following the US, Guatemala, and Kosovo. President Hernandez and the Honduran government have been considered supportive of Israel. This is likely partially based on the fact that Honduras is a close ally of the US, and also has a large community of Evangelical Christians, who strongly support Israel. During a conversation between President Hernandez and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both leaders had committed themselves to open their respective embassies in each others’ capitals in September 2020. The leaders also discussed developing partnerships in tourism, investment, technology, agriculture, education, and trade. The latest development will thus foster Jerusalem’s process of opening its own embassy in Tegucigalpa, and will bolster business and economic relations between the countries over the coming months. This was also highlighted in President Hernandez’s recent remarks that positive relations with Israel would benefit Honduraz’s agriculture, innovation, and tourism sectors. page 2 / 5 Israel & Turkey: Germany passes bill banning symbols of Hamas, PKK on June 25; shows strong relations with Israel, Turkey The German parliament’s lower house passed a bill banning symbols of groups on the European Union (EU) “terror list”, including the Gaza-based Hamas and the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Hamas has been designated as a militant group by Israel, while the PKK is similarly classified by Turkey. The law is yet to be approved by the parliament’s upper house. The ban on Hamas symbols is particularly notable as it follows widespread pro-Palestinian and anti- Israel protests in Germany in May, which reportedly witnessed burning of Israeli flags, and display of anti-semitic sentiments. Thus, the bill is aimed at placating Germany’s Jewish citizens as well as reiterating the country’s strong relations with Israel. Similarly, the ban on PKK symbols will be viewed as a positive measure, and thus strengthen cooperation between Berlin and Ankara. However, the measure will aggrieve pro-Palestinian and pro-PKK segments in Germany, who will perceive this as biased and restrictive of their freedom of expression. This decision overall signals that German foreign policy in the Middle East continues to favor traditional allies such as Israel and Turkey. Israel & Palestinian Territories: Israel extends Gaza’s fishing zone on June 24; aims to foster stability along Israel-Gaza border Israel also approved the import of raw materials into the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom border-crossing for vital civilian purposes. Despite the June 21 ceasefire, tensions between Israel and Gaza-based militants have not entirely subsided as underscored by the Israeli airstrikes within the Gaza Strip on June 15-16 in retaliation to the launch of incendiary balloons into southern Israel. This constituted an Israeli effort to set a new equation vis-a-vis Hamas based on which even low-scale acts of militancy from Gaza would trigger an Israeli response. Although Hamas has threatened Israel with retaliation, this is largely rhetoric as it is currently not in the Palestinian militant group’s interest to escalate tensions with Israel. This is underscored by the fact that no major incendiary balloon attacks have been recorded along the Israel-Gaza border in recent days. The latest Israeli measure is thus likely meant to project that it will respond to stability along its southern border by alleviating its blockade over the Gaza Strip. Israel may announce further such measures to encourage Hamas to contain any form of cross-border violence. Palestinian Territories: Tear gas used to disperse protesters marching towards Presidential Palace in Ramallah on June 24; protests to recur The protesters were demanding the resignation of Palestinian Authority (PA) President, Mahmoud Abbas. Meanwhile, the US Department of the State expressed concern over the PA’s “restrictions on the exercise of freedom of expression by Palestinians and harassment of civil society activists”. Mohammad Ibrahim Shtayyeh, the Prime Minister (PM) of the Palestinian National Authority ordered a probe into the death of activist, Nizar Banet, on June 24. This protest comes amid elevated tensions in the West Bank following Banet’s death and is indicative of the belief among a certain segment of the locals that Banat may have been killed purposefully by the PA’s security apparatus due to his critical stance towards Abbas. Shtayyeh’s directive will likely be perceived as an appeasement measure, especially given security forces’ use of tear gas to disperse the gathering in Ramallah. This may exacerbate anti-PA sentiments and trigger further unrest in the West Bank over the coming days. The PA will likely perceive these demonstrations as a page 3 / 5 challenge to its authority in the West Bank and will thus direct security forces to crackdown on such gatherings. Saudi Arabia & Yemen: Houthis claim on June 24 UAV attack on military training camp in Najran’s al-Wadiah; scope likely exaggerated According to the official Houthi news agency, ten “Qasef-2K” unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used to target the command center, training sites, and other facilities within the military training camp. The attack resulted in the killing and wounding of more than 60 Saudi soldiers and officers.
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