CHILD POLICY This PDF document was made available CIVIL JUSTICE from www.rand.org as a public service of EDUCATION the RAND Corporation. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE Jump down to document6 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit POPULATION AND AGING research organization providing PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY objective analysis and effective SUBSTANCE ABUSE solutions that address the challenges TERRORISM AND facing the public and private sectors HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND around the world. INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Europe View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. The United Kingdom’s Naval Shipbuilding Industrial Base The Next Fifteen Years Mark V. Arena Hans Pung Cynthia R. Cook Jefferson P. Marquis Jessie Riposo Gordon T. Lee Prepared for the United Kingdom‘s Ministry of Defence Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United King- dom’s Ministry of Defence. The research was conducted jointly in RAND Europe and the RAND National Security Research Division. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The United Kingdom’s naval shipbuilding industrial base : the next fifteen years / Mark V. Arena ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-294.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3706-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Shipbuilding industry—Great Britain. 2. Warships—Great Britain—Design and construction. 3. Great Britain. Ministry of Defence—Procurement. 4. Great Britain. Royal Navy—Procurement. I. Arena, Mark V. VM299.7.G7U55 2005 338.4'7623825'0941—dc22 2005001980 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon Cover photo from Reuters, via Landov LLC © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface In the autumn of 2003, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MOD) engaged the RAND Corporation to study the domestic capacity for naval ship construction. The impetus for the study was a concern on the MOD’s part that the confluence of several ship- building programmes (i.e., Astute, MARS, CVF, FSC, JCTS, and Type 451) could potentially overburden the industry. The objective of the study was to take a strategic look at the shipbuilding industry over the next 15 years to determine where there might be capacity limitations and to offer recommendations as to how any identified limitations might be addressed. For example, are there production skills or trades that will be in short supply? If so, what policy options are open to the government to remedy such a shortfall (training incentives, shifting of work, etc.)? The scope of the study was limited to the UK industry, in line with current defence procurement policy. This report is the final product of that study and summarises the analysis. We organised our analysis by decomposing capacity into three major elements: labour, facilities, and suppliers. Labour encompassed all aspects of ship production (manufacture, design, engineering, management, outfitting, and support). The facilities analysis ad- dressed the throughput limitations of the major shipyard assets, such as piers, docks, and slipways. For simplicity, we limited this examina- tion to facilities involved in final assembly and afloat outfitting. The ____________ 1 For a full listing and description of these ships, see Table S.1 in the Summary. iii iv The United Kingdom’s Naval Shipbuilding Industrial Base: The Next 15 Years suppliers make up a major portion of the shipbuilding value chain and provide a wide range of different products and services—from painting services to complex weapon systems. The suppliers’ ability to meet any peak in demand will affect the ability of the MOD to procure ships within the desired time frame and budget. For our capacity evaluations, we relied on data surveys and interviews with many firms and organisations associated with ship- building in the United Kingdom, including shipbuilders, ship repair- ers, suppliers, industry associations, and government organisations. This interaction took the better part of five months. This report should be of special interest not only to the MOD’s Defence Procurement Agency (DPA) but also to service and defence agency managers and policymakers involved in weapon system acqui- sitions on both sides of the Atlantic. It should also be of interest to shipbuilding industrial executives in the United Kingdom. This research was sponsored by the MOD and conducted within RAND Europe and the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division, which conducts research for the US Department of Defense, allied foreign governments, the intelligence community, and foundations. For more information on RAND Europe, contact the president, Martin van der Mandele. He can be reached by email at mandele@ rand.org; by phone at +31 71 524 5151; or by mail at RAND Europe, Netonweg 1, 2333 CP Leiden, The Netherlands. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the director, Jim Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at (310) 393-0411, extension 5134; or by mail at RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 USA. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface....................................................................... iii Figures ...................................................................... xi Tables .......................................................................xv Summary.................................................................. xvii Acknowledgements ...................................................... xxxv Abbreviations ........................................................... xxxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction .................................................................1 Warship Production Is a Unique Industry...................................2 MOD Ship Programmes.....................................................5 Programmes Past Main Gate .............................................6 Projects Pre–Main Gate...................................................7 Other Speculative Programmes ...........................................9 Notional Programme Timelines ........................................ 10 Business Environment of UK Naval Shipbuilding Industrial Base Since 1985 ........................................................... 12 Issues for Policymakers..................................................... 16 Study Structure ............................................................ 17 Plan ..................................................................... 18 Labour .................................................................. 19 Facilities................................................................. 19 Suppliers ................................................................ 19 Survey of the UK Shipbuilding Industry .................................. 20 Study Outline .............................................................. 21 v vi The United Kingdom’s Naval Shipbuilding Industrial Base: The Next 15 Years CHAPTER TWO Labour Demand ........................................................... 23 Methodology............................................................... 24 Basic Assumptions ......................................................... 27 Additional Assumptions ................................................ 31 Current MOD Plan: Overall Labour Demand ............................ 33 Current MOD Plan: Demand for Specific Labour Skills.................. 35 Management Labour Skills ............................................. 35 Technical Labour Skills ................................................. 36 Structural Labour Skills ................................................. 37 Outfitting Labour Skills