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Shipbuilding Shipbuilding A promising rst half, an uncertain second one 2018 started briskly in the wake of 2017. In the rst half of the year, newbuilding orders were placed at a rate of about 10m dwt per month. However the pace dropped in the second half, as owners grappled with a rise in newbuilding prices and growing uncertainty over the IMO 2020 deadline. Regardless, newbuilding orders rose to 95.5m dwt in 2018 versus 83.1m dwt in 2017. Demand for bulkers, container carriers and specialised ships increased, while for tankers it receded, re ecting low freight rates and poor sentiment. Thanks to this additional demand, shipbuilders succeeded in raising newbuilding prices by about 10%. This enabled them to pass on some of the additional building costs resulting from higher steel prices, new regulations and increased pressure from marine suppliers, who have also been struggling since 2008. VIIKKI LNG-fuelled forest product carrier, 25,600 dwt (B.Delta 25), built in 2018 by China’s Jinling for Finland’s ESL Shipping. 5 Orders Million dwt 300 250 200 150 100 50 SHIPBUILDING SHIPBUILDING KEY POINTS OF 2018 KEY POINTS OF 2018 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Deliveries vs demolitions Fleet evolution Deliveries Demolitions Fleet KEY POINTS OF 2018 Summary 2017 2018 Million dwt Million dwt Million dwt Million dwt Ships 1,000 1,245 Orders 200 2,000 m dwt 83.1 95.5 180 The three Asian shipbuilding giants, representing almost 95% of the global 1,800 orderbook by deadweight, continued to ght ercely for market share. In Ships 1,313 1,142 160 Deliveries 140 1,600 2018, China consolidated its top position with a 43.1% market share. In second m dwt 96.1 78.7 place Korea increased its market share to 27.5%, while Japan slipped back to 120 Ships 2,886 2,995 1,400 24.0% in third place. The ‘rest of the world’ (RoW) and Europe registered a 3.8% Orderbook 100 and 1.6% share of the global market respectively. m dwt 214.8 231.7 80 1,200 Ships 36,972 37,674 60 Newbuilding deliveries fell to 78.7m dwt in 2018 against 96.1m dwt the Active Fleet 1,000 40 previous year, re ecting the decline in newbuilding orders in 2016 (32.6m m dwt 1,804.7 1,855.7 20 800 dwt). The global orderbook increased from 214.8m dwt to 231.7m dwt in Ships 7.8% 7.9% Orderbook/Active Fleet 0 2018, while the world eet increased from 1,805m dwt to 1,855m dwt 600 m dwt 11.9% 12.5% -20 (37,674 ships) during the year. -40 400 Shipowners sought to take advantage of low asset prices in early 2018 and -60 200 many returned to the shipyards, but owners were equally active on the second -80 hand market (110m dwt in sales in 2018 versus 132m dwt in 2017). Orderbook 2017 2018 -100 0 Newbuilding prices increased by some 10% during the year regardless of Market share 43.7% 43.1% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 vessel size and type, even for tankers, which were less in demand. This was China Ships 1,234 1,283 the effect of tension in the newbuilding market. Orderbooks stretched well m dwt 93.9 99.8 Deliveries Demolitions Fleet Evolution beyond the two-year yardstick, reaching three years for the busiest yards. Market share 24.4% 27.5% The IMO 2020 sulphur cap caused more debate (and disagreement) than any other issue in the market in 2018. It raised numerous questions, many of Korea Ships 396 465 which remain unanswered. m dwt 52.4 63.8 Should owners install scrubbers (exhaust gas cleaning systems) or not? If Market share 25.1% 24.0% Orders Million dwt so, what type: open loop, closed loop or hybrid? Will open-loop scrubbers Japan Ships 750 730 be banned by more countries? Who pays for the equipment: owners or m dwt 54 55.5 Orders charterers? And who is responsible in the case of scrubber breakdown? How 300 reliable will scrubbers be in a high-temperature, high-corrosion environment, Market share 1.6% 1.6% Million dwt and operating with different engine outputs? Europe Ships 237 288 250 Will the price spread between ‘compliant’ fuel and high sulphur fuel widen or m dwt 3.4 3.6 narrow, and what will be the availability of both fuel types? Are scrubbers Market share 5.2% 3.8% just a temporary x that will become redundant after a couple of years? 200 ROW Ships 267 229 What adjustments, if any, will the Baltic Exchange make to their indices (on which the FFA market and a good part of the physical market depends)? What m dwt 11.1 8.9 150 proportion of the world eet will in fact be tted with scrubbers? While all these questions were raised during 2018, the answers will only 100 become apparent during 2019, 2020 and beyond. The uncertainty created by the sulphur cap poses a challenge for everyone in the industry: owners, charterers, traders, shipbuilders, oil re ners, bunker suppliers, banks and 50 brokers. Opportunities for some, headaches for others. The trade dispute initiated by the US constituted the second hot topic in 0 2018, but its impact was dif cult to assess. Chinese exports shrank by 4.4% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 year-on-year in December 2018, the worst decline in two years and much worse than economists expected. The same month, Chinese imports slumped Newbuilding by 7.6% year-on-year, which also suggests that the world’s second-largest Bulk Tanker Containers Others economy is struggling. Reuters’ analysts had expected a 3% decline and a 5% prices increased increase in exports and imports respectively but despite the year-end slump in exports, China’s trade surplus with the US swelled to $323bn in 2018, the 10% in 2018 Deliveries Demolitions Fleet highest on record. Million dwt Million dwt 200 2,000 180 1,800 160 6 140 BRS GROUP - Annual review1,600 2019 BRS GROUP - Annual review 2019 7 120 1,400 100 80 1,200 60 1,000 40 20 800 0 600 -20 -40 400 -60 200 -80 -100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SHIPBUILDING SHIPBUILDING WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES Average Time Charter rates were: WORLD ECONOMY, MARITIME Global Trade and World GDP & Active Fleet Growth Freight Rates Global trade and world GDP & active eet growth Dry bulk • Aframax: $14,833 in 2017 and $14,220 in 2018 TRADE AND FREIGHT RATES • Suezmax: $18,196 in 2017 and $16,050 in 2018 12% 10.2% • VLCC: ....... $26,539 in 2017 and $25,750 in 2018 9.3% After an extremely dif cult year in 2016 (in which the Baltic Exchange Dry 9.4% Index (BDI) fell to its lowest level since launch), the dry bulk market saw the World Economy 7.1% 8% 6.5% recovery started in 2017 continue into 2018. Container The world economy performed well in 2018, with a 5.4% growth of 3.7%, just 0.1% less than in 2017. However, 4.5% 4.1% 4.2% Container charter rates continued to improve in 2018 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% The BDI logged an averaged 1,352 points in 2018 versus 1,145 in 2017, albeit seaborne trade growth went down from 4.2% in 2017 to 4% 3.3% after the record lows seen in 2016 and the subsequent 4.3% there was the start of a decline at the end of the year. 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% in 2018. Inward-looking trade policies and the rise 3.4%3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% recovery in 2017. The Alphaliner Charter Index averaged of protectionism threaten an otherwise positive outlook 2.0% 68 in 2018 versus 55 the previous year. 0% The Baltic Capesize 5TC averaged $12,962 in Q1, $14,980 in Q2, $22,207 in for seaborne trade, according to the 2018 United Nations -0.1% Q3, and $15,829 in Q4. Despite this, charter rates remained only slightly above Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) review operating expenses. As carriers consolidated into ever of maritime trade. Rising trade friction could derail the -4% smaller numbers of large alliances, they were able to use recovery seen in the past two years and reshape global -3.8% Tanker their bargaining power to keep rates under check. trade patterns. UNCTAD also warned that competition authorities should remain vigilant over the acceleration -8% Tanker rates were under greater pressure in 2018. The Baltic Exchange Clean The idle or unemployed containership pool increased of M&A activity in the liner shipping sector. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tanker Index (BCTI) started 2018 at 655 and ended at 813, and averaged from about 0.4m teu (1.8% of the active eet) at the end 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 579 over the year, compared to 606 in 2017. of 2017 to 0.6m teu (2.8%) at end 2018. Overall, UNCTAD predictions for seaborne trade are World GDP Seaborne Trade World Active Fleet Growth positive, with a potential compound annual growth rate World GDP Seaborne Trade World Active Fleet Growth Average 1-year Time Charter rates were as follows: of 3.8% between 2019 and 2023.
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