Are you buried in information?

Or are you still digging for more? Weekly Climate Updates Available Upper Colorado Regional Drought Early Warning

Down 16% from last week If you’d like to get a weekly update on current climate, water and drought conditions

Please give me a business card or a note with your contact info today And this we know No two years are ever the same Snow is a critical part of Colorado’s climate, water balance and ecology And Predicting the Future Does Not Come Easily

But Let’s Try Everywhere we look, we see variability and occasional extremes and sometimes stuff that looks a lot like cycles and trends

Why!! Tilted Axis Creates the Seasons

http://www.weather.gov/images/cle/Education/EarthOrbit.png Right away things get interesting, driven by the energy from the sun Milankovitch Cycles

http://www.azimuthproject.org/azimuth/show/Milankovitch+cycle

https://www.climate.gov/ Sunspots

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/images/solargraph.gif El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

What’s measured: atmospheric pressure and sea surface temperatures

Cycle: 2–6 years from peak to peak

ENSO is the acronym for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which refers to the changing state of the ocean and atmosphere that produces El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool phase), as well as neutral conditions. The Niño 3.4 region is most often used to track ENSO.

https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/weather-maker-patterns-interactive-map MEI Time Series Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

What’s measured: sea surface temperatures

Timescale: 40–60 years from peak to peak

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of climate variability centered across the North Pacific Ocean.

https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/weather-maker-patterns-interactive-map PDO Time Series Arctic Oscillation (AO)

The AO is a climate pattern characterized by winds circulating counterclockwise around the Arctic at around 55°N latitude.

When the AO is in its positive phase, a ring of strong winds circulating around the North Pole acts to confine colder air across polar regions.

This belt of winds becomes weaker and more distorted in the negative phase of the AO, which allows an easier southward penetration of colder, arctic airmasses and increased storminess into the mid- latitudes.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month.ao.gif Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Unlike ENSO, which is stationary, the MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average. There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. varies on a week- to-week basis).

Time series of daily MJO index amplitude for the last few years. Plot puts current MJO activity in recent historical context.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care Quasi-Biennial Oscillation What is the QBO? The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is a regular variation of the winds that blow high above the equator. Strong winds in the stratosphere travel in a belt around the planet, and every 14 months or so, these winds completely change direction. This means a full cycle takes roughly 28 months.

How does the QBO work? The QBO is driven by atmospheric waves that rise from the troposphere and are produced by intense tropical weather systems. Once these high-level winds reach the tropopause, the opposite phase of the oscillation descends from above. It takes roughly 14 months for each reversal to occur.

Why is the QBO important? The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation can affect the Atlantic jet stream. The speed of the winds in the jet stream weaken and strengthen with the direction of the QBO.

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/qbo-quasi-biennial-oscillation http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/quasi-biennial-oscillation NAO Time Series • \ Even here in the Valley, you are affected somewhat by both anomalies in the Pacific and, to a lesser extent the Atlantic NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO MEI Outlook Back in 2011-12, all factors were stacked against you

This time around only “La Nina” is troublesome – and it seems to be weakening Still, the odds are favoring dry through spring

Warmer\ than average all year

And maybe a “good” monsoon NOAA Climate Prediction Center 3-4 Week Outlook

Temperature Precipitation