Orbital Forcing of Arctic Climate: Mechanisms of Climate Response and Implications for Continental Glaciation

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Orbital Forcing of Arctic Climate: Mechanisms of Climate Response and Implications for Continental Glaciation Climate Dynamics (2003) 21: 539–557 DOI 10.1007/s00382-003-0351-3 C. S. Jackson Æ A. J. Broccoli Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation Received: 9 July 2002 / Accepted: 10 July 2003 / Published online: 4 November 2003 Ó Springer-Verlag 2003 Abstract Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine d18O volume is linked to EarthÕs orbital configuration has record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system the increases in snowfall during these periods, through processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipi- (103–105 years). A compromise is usually made to rep- tation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high resent the climate system by models that are averaged latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the over one or more spatial dimensions or by three- properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative dimensional models that are limited to simulating par- feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital ticular ‘‘snapshots’’ in time. We take advantage of the forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution short equilibration time (310 years) of a climate model of the latitudinal temperature gradient. consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in EarthÕs orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent 1 Introduction decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are sim- ulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 The growth and decay of terrestrial ice sheets during the thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late Quaternary ultimately result from the effects of changes spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant in EarthÕs orbital geometry on climate system processes. decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 This link is convincingly established by Hays et al. and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aph- (1976) who find a correlation between variations of elion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near terrestrial ice volume and variations in EarthÕs orbital its long term mean. These ‘‘glaciation-friendly’’ time eccentricity, obliquity, and longitude of the perihelion. intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases One of the earliest and most widely known hypotheses concerning the effects of orbital configuration on glacial cycles is described by Milankovitch (1941), who presents C. S. Jackson (&) Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, an argument that a decrease in summer insolation is Princeton University, critical for glacial initiation. The usual interpretation of Princeton, NJ 08542, USA the Milankovitch hypothesis is that a reduction in E-mail: [email protected] summer insolation directly affects the amount of ice melt A. J. Broccoli that occurs during that season to a point when snow NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, fields can build upon previous yearÕs accumulation. In Princeton, NJ 08542, USA this usual interpretation, the Milankovitch hypothesis is Present address: C. S. Jackson centered on the effects of orbital configuration on snow Institute for Geophysics, melt (or ablation) rates. The John A. and Katherine G. Jackson School of Geosciences, Other hypotheses have been presented as well. Young The University of Texas at Austin, 4412 Spicewood Springs Rd., Bldg 600, Austin, TX 78759, USA and Bradley (1984) argue that the meridional insolation gradient is a critical factor for the growth and decay of Present address: A. J. Broccoli Department of Environmental Sciences, terrestrial ice through its control over poleward moisture Rutgers University, New Brunswick, transports and snowfall. Ruddiman and McIntyre NJ 08903 USA (1981), Miller and deVernal (1992), and Imbrie et al. 540 Jackson and Broccoli: Orbital forcing of Arctic climate (1992) suggest the North Atlantic Ocean circulation is cover from orbital forcing alone. The prescription of at important for modulating ice volume. Ruddiman and least an initial meter of snow over land points north of McIntyre (1981) and Miller and deVernal (1992) found 45°N is also insufficient to create conditions favorable evidence within the geologic record that the North for glacial initiation in several experiments (Oglesby Atlantic remains warm during periods of ice growth and 1990; Rind et al. 1989; Phillipps and Held 1994). In conjecture that enhanced meridional temperature gra- contrast to other experiments, the model employed by dients and evaporation rates during winter enhance the Dong and Valdes (1995) is sufficiently sensitive to radi- delivery of snow to the nascent ice sheets of northeastern ative changes at 115 ka to reach the critical threshold of Canada. Imbrie et al. (1992) propose that orbital forcing summer cooling noted by Rind et al. (1989) that allowed affects North Atlantic deep-water formation and, the annual accumulation of snow over many grid cells of through a chain of causality involving the Southern the high Arctic, although not necessarily where the Ocean, atmospheric CO2 levels. geologic record suggests glacial initiation took place. Three-dimensional climate models provide opportu- One reason some climate models may lack the necessary nities to explore some of these hypotheses within a sensitivity is due to a warm bias in summer surface air physically consistent framework. Unfortunately, the temperatures within the northern high latitudes, a large computational cost of simulating more than a common feature in many model predictions of modern century or two with the most comprehensive climate climate (Vettoretti and Peltier 2003a, b). The reduction models imposes an important constraint on modeling of this bias leads to an enhanced sensitivity and per- glacial-interglacial cycles. This constraint has focused manent snow cover over part of the northern high lati- research efforts towards more feasible targets, such as tudes in response to insolation anomalies at 115 ka. identifying the necessary factors that allow glaciation to The failure of many climate models to simulate per- occur at the inception of the most recent glacial cycle at manent snow cover over Eurasia and North America at approximately 115 thousand years before present (ka). 115 ka could indicate that those models have neglected a The 115 ka time period is of interest not only because critical feedback. Vegetation feedback is one possible it corresponds to a time of early growth of land ice, but candidate. Cooler summers were found to be a factor in also because the distribution of land ice and atmospheric forcing a conversion of high-latitude taiga and decidu- concentration of CO2 were similar to present. The main ous forests to higher albedo tundra, a process that boundary condition that may account for differences contributed to glacial initiation in the modeling studies between present and 115 ka is the difference in orbital of de Noblet et al. (1996) and Gallimore and Kutzbach configuration. A number of modeling studies have at- (1996). Recently, the coupled, three-dimensional, atmo- tempted to simulate glacial inception by prescribing the sphere-ocean modeling study of Khodri et al. (2001) 115 ka orbital geometry in climate models consisting of found the amplifying effects of orbital forcing on the an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) North Atlantic sea surface temperatures to be critical to coupled to a simple slab ocean (Rind et al. 1989; Oglesby glacial initiation, through reductions in the strength of 1990; Mitchell 1993; Phillipps and Held 1994; Dong and the thermohaline circulation in addition to increased Valdes 1995; Gallimore and Kutzbach 1995). These poleward moisture transports within the atmosphere. modeling studies discuss the importance of feedbacks For a variety of reasons, which we will discuss in more involving sea ice and soil moisture. Sea-ice feedbacks detail toward the end of this study, the importance of play a role in amplifying the annual mean cooling as well these feedbacks in the real climate system remains as shaping seasonal response to changes in insolation. uncertain. Moreover, sea-ice dynamics serve as a negative feedback While identifying the necessary factors that led to on sea ice thickness, positive feedback on sea ice con- glacial initiation at 115 ka is important to quantifying centration, and a positive feedback on surface air tem- some aspects of orbital forcing of glacial cycles, we also perature for an orbital configuration at 115 ka (Vavrus need to identify processes that are important to the 1999). Increases in soil moisture in the mid- to high evolution of terrestrial ice volume that may or may not latitudes are also noted in several studies and could be be the same as those processes emphasized from studies playing a significant role in maintaining cooler surface of climate at 115 ka. Time series analysis of oceanic air temperatures as well as increasing precipitation over sediments reveals that ice volume has varied linearly land at 115 ka (Mitchell 1993; Phillipps and Held 1994). with obliquity and precessional forcing since at least An increase in storm activity, which leads to increased 800 ka (Imbrie et al. 1984). This suggests that orbital precipitation rates in simulations of orbital forcing at forcing has affected climate in a systematic fashion, and 115 ka, is found by Kageyama et al. (1999) in an AGCM that knowledge gained from examining time slices other with specified sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The than 115 ka would be relevant to identifying processes change in storm activity is directly related to increases in that link orbital configuration with glacial-interglacial the meridional temperature gradient forced by a win- cycles. In fact, the most direct way to identify such tertime warming of the continents consistent with the processes is to directly model the temporal evolution of change in radiative forcing.
Recommended publications
  • To What Extent Can Orbital Forcing Still Be Seen As the “Pacemaker Of
    Sophie Webb To what extent can orbital forcing still be seen as the main driver of global climate change? Introduction The Quaternary refers to the last 2.6 million years of geological time. During this period, there have been many oscillations in global climate resulting in episodes of glaciation and fluctuations in sea level. By examining evidence from a range of sources, palaeoclimatic data across different timescales can be considered. The recovery of longer, better preserved sediment and ice cores in addition to improved dating techniques have shown that climate has changed, not only on orbital timescales, but also on shorter scales of centuries and decades. Such discoveries have lead to the most widely accepted hypothesis of climate change, the Milankovitch hypothesis, being challenged and the emergence of new explanations. Causes of Climate Change Milankovitch Theory Orbital mechanisms have little effect on the amount of solar radiation (insolation) received by Earth. However, they do affect the distribution of this energy around the globe and produce seasonal variations which promote the growth or retreat of glaciers and ice sheets. Eccentricity is an approximate 100 kyr cycle and refers to the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun. The orbit can be more elliptical or circular, altering the time Earth spends close to or far from the Sun. This in turn affects the seasons which can initiate small climatic changes. Seasonal changes are also caused by the Earth’s precession which runs on a cycle of around 23 kyr. The effect of precession is influenced by the eccentricity cycle: when the orbit is round, Earth’s distance from the sun is constant so there is not a hugely significant precessional effect.
    [Show full text]
  • Late Pliocene Climate Variability on Milankovitch to Millennial Time Scales: a High-Resolution Study of MIS100 from the Mediterranean
    Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228 (2005) 338–360 www.elsevier.com/locate/palaeo Late Pliocene climate variability on Milankovitch to millennial time scales: A high-resolution study of MIS100 from the Mediterranean Julia Becker *, Lucas J. Lourens, Frederik J. Hilgen, Erwin van der Laan, Tanja J. Kouwenhoven, Gert-Jan Reichart Department of Stratigraphy–Paleontology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, 3584 CD Utrecht, Netherlands Received 10 November 2004; received in revised form 19 June 2005; accepted 22 June 2005 Abstract Astronomically tuned high-resolution climatic proxy records across marine oxygen isotope stage 100 (MIS100) from the Italian Monte San Nicola section and ODP Leg 160 Hole 967A are presented. These records reveal a complex pattern of climate fluctuations on both Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch timescales that oppose or reinforce one another. Planktonic and benthic foraminiferal d18O records of San Nicola depict distinct stadial and interstadial phases superimposed on the saw-tooth pattern of this glacial stage. The duration of the stadial–interstadial alterations closely resembles that of the Late Pleistocene Bond cycles. In addition, both isotopic and foraminiferal records of San Nicola reflect rapid changes on timescales comparable to that of the Dansgard–Oeschger (D–O) cycles of the Late Pleistocene. During stadial intervals winter surface cooling and deep convection in the Mediterranean appeared to be more intense, probably as a consequence of very cold winds entering the Mediterranean from the Atlantic or the European continent. The high-frequency climate variability is less clear at Site 967, indicating that the eastern Mediterranean was probably less sensitive to surface water cooling and the influence of the Atlantic climate system.
    [Show full text]
  • Dynamic Effects on the Tropical Cloud Radiative Forcing and Radiation Budget
    VOLUME 21 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 1 JUNE 2008 Dynamic Effects on the Tropical Cloud Radiative Forcing and Radiation Budget JIAN YUAN,DENNIS L. HARTMANN, AND ROBERT WOOD Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 22 January 2007, in final form 29 October 2007) ABSTRACT Vertical velocity is used to isolate the effect of large-scale dynamics on the observed radiation budget and cloud properties in the tropics, using the methodology suggested by Bony et al. Cloud and radiation budget quantities in the tropics show well-defined responses to the large-scale vertical motion at 500 hPa. For the tropics as a whole, the ratio of shortwave to longwave cloud forcing (hereafter N) is about 1.2 in regions of upward motion, and increases to about 1.9 in regions of strong subsidence. If the analysis is restricted to oceanic regions with SST Ͼ 28°C, N does not increase as much for subsiding motions, because the strato- cumulus regions are eliminated, and the net cloud forcing decreases linearly from about near zero for zero vertical velocity to about Ϫ15WmϪ2 for strongly subsiding motion. Increasingly negative cloud forcing with increasing upward motion is mostly related to an increasing abundance of high, thick clouds. Although a consistent dynamical effect on the annual cycle of about1WmϪ2 can be identified, the effect of the probability density function (PDF) of the large-scale vertical velocity on long-term trends in the tropical mean radiation budget is very small compared to the observed variations. Observed tropical mean changes can be as large as Ϯ3WmϪ2, while the dynamical components are generally smaller than Ϯ0.5 W mϪ2.
    [Show full text]
  • Aerosols, Their Direct and Indirect Effects
    5 Aerosols, their Direct and Indirect Effects Co-ordinating Lead Author J.E. Penner Lead Authors M. Andreae, H. Annegarn, L. Barrie, J. Feichter, D. Hegg, A. Jayaraman, R. Leaitch, D. Murphy, J. Nganga, G. Pitari Contributing Authors A. Ackerman, P. Adams, P. Austin, R. Boers, O. Boucher, M. Chin, C. Chuang, B. Collins, W. Cooke, P. DeMott, Y. Feng, H. Fischer, I. Fung, S. Ghan, P. Ginoux, S.-L. Gong, A. Guenther, M. Herzog, A. Higurashi, Y. Kaufman, A. Kettle, J. Kiehl, D. Koch, G. Lammel, C. Land, U. Lohmann, S. Madronich, E. Mancini, M. Mishchenko, T. Nakajima, P. Quinn, P. Rasch, D.L. Roberts, D. Savoie, S. Schwartz, J. Seinfeld, B. Soden, D. Tanré, K. Taylor, I. Tegen, X. Tie, G. Vali, R. Van Dingenen, M. van Weele, Y. Zhang Review Editors B. Nyenzi, J. Prospero Contents Executive Summary 291 5.4.1 Summary of Current Model Capabilities 313 5.4.1.1 Comparison of large-scale sulphate 5.1 Introduction 293 models (COSAM) 313 5.1.1 Advances since the Second Assessment 5.4.1.2 The IPCC model comparison Report 293 workshop: sulphate, organic carbon, 5.1.2 Aerosol Properties Relevant to Radiative black carbon, dust, and sea salt 314 Forcing 293 5.4.1.3 Comparison of modelled and observed aerosol concentrations 314 5.2 Sources and Production Mechanisms of 5.4.1.4 Comparison of modelled and satellite- Atmospheric Aerosols 295 derived aerosol optical depth 318 5.2.1 Introduction 295 5.4.2 Overall Uncertainty in Direct Forcing 5.2.2 Primary and Secondary Sources of Aerosols 296 Estimates 322 5.2.2.1 Soil dust 296 5.4.3 Modelling the Indirect
    [Show full text]
  • Milankovitch and Sub-Milankovitch Cycles of the Early Triassic Daye Formation, South China and Their Geochronological and Paleoclimatic Implications
    Gondwana Research 22 (2012) 748–759 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Gondwana Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gr Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch cycles of the early Triassic Daye Formation, South China and their geochronological and paleoclimatic implications Huaichun Wu a,b,⁎, Shihong Zhang a, Qinglai Feng c, Ganqing Jiang d, Haiyan Li a, Tianshui Yang a a State Key Laboratory of Geobiology and Environmental Geology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China b School of Ocean Sciences, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083 , China c State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China d Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA article info abstract Article history: The mass extinction at the end of Permian was followed by a prolonged recovery process with multiple Received 16 June 2011 phases of devastation–restoration of marine ecosystems in Early Triassic. The time framework for the Early Received in revised form 25 November 2011 Triassic geological, biological and geochemical events is traditionally established by conodont biostratigra- Accepted 2 December 2011 phy, but the absolute duration of conodont biozones are not well constrained. In this study, a rock magnetic Available online 16 December 2011 cyclostratigraphy, based on high-resolution analysis (2440 samples) of magnetic susceptibility (MS) and Handling Editor: J.G. Meert anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) intensity variations, was developed for the 55.1-m-thick, Early Triassic Lower Daye Formation at the Daxiakou section, Hubei province in South China. The Lower Keywords: Daye Formation shows exceptionally well-preserved lithological cycles with alternating thinly-bedded mud- Early Triassic stone, marls and limestone, which are closely tracked by the MS and ARM variations.
    [Show full text]
  • Resolved Snowball Earth Clouds
    15 JUNE 2014 A B B O T 4391 Resolved Snowball Earth Clouds DORIAN S. ABBOT Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (Manuscript received 2 December 2013, in final form 23 February 2014) ABSTRACT Recent general circulation model (GCM) simulations have challenged the idea that a snowball Earth would be nearly entirely cloudless. This is important because clouds would provide a strong warming to a high- albedo snowball Earth. GCM results suggest that clouds could lower the threshold CO2 needed to deglaciate a snowball by a factor of 10–100, enough to allow consistency with geochemical data. Here a cloud-resolving model is used to investigate cloud and convection behavior in a snowball Earth climate. The model produces convection that extends vertically to a similar temperature as modern tropical convection. This convection produces clouds that resemble stratocumulus clouds under an inversion on modern Earth, which slowly dissipate by sedimentation of cloud ice. There is enough cloud ice for the clouds to be optically thick in the longwave, and the resulting cloud radiative forcing is similar to that produced in GCMs run in snowball conditions. This result is robust to large changes in the cloud microphysics scheme because the cloud longwave forcing, which dominates the total forcing, is relatively insensitive to cloud amount and particle size. The cloud-resolving model results are therefore consistent with the idea that clouds would provide a large warming to a snowball Earth, helping to allow snowball deglaciation. 1. Introduction Additionally, in at least some areas banded iron for- mations, which indicate anoxic ocean conditions, were Between 600 and 800 million years ago there were at deposited during these glaciations (Kirschvink 1992; least two periods during which paleomagnetic evidence Hoffman and Li 2009).
    [Show full text]
  • Plio-Pleistocene Imprint of Natural Climate Cycles in Marine Sediments
    Lebreiro, S. M. 2013. Plio-Pleistocene imprint of natural climate cycles in marine sediments. Boletín Geológico y Minero, 124 (2): 283-305 ISSN: 0366-0176 Plio-Pleistocene imprint of natural climate cycles in marine sediments S. M. Lebreiro Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, OPI. Dept. de Investigación y Prospectiva Geocientífica. Calle Ríos Rosas, 23, 28003-Madrid, España [email protected] ABSTracT The response of Earth to natural climate cyclicity is written in marine sediments. The Earth is a complex system, as is climate change determined by various modes, frequency of cycles, forcings, boundary conditions, thresholds, and tipping elements. Oceans act as climate change buffers, and marine sediments provide archives of climate conditions in the Earth´s history. To read climate records they must be well-dated, well-calibrated and analysed at high-resolution. Reconstructions of past climates are based on climate variables such as atmospheric composi- tion, temperature, salinity, ocean productivity and wind, the nature and quality which are of the utmost impor- tance. Once the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanographic proxy-variables of past events are well documented, the best results of modelling and validation, and future predictions can be obtained from climate models. Neither the mechanisms for abrupt climate changes at orbital, millennial and multi-decadal time scales nor the origin, rhythms and stability of cyclicity are as yet fully understood. Possible sources of cyclicity are either natural in the form of internal ocean-atmosphere-land interactions or external radioactive forcing such as solar irradiance and volcanic activity, or else anthropogenic. Coupling with stochastic resonance is also very probable.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 10/01/21 10:31 PM UTC 874 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 12
    MARCH 1999 VAVRUS 873 The Response of the Coupled Arctic Sea Ice±Atmosphere System to Orbital Forcing and Ice Motion at 6 kyr and 115 kyr BP STEPHEN J. VAVRUS Center for Climatic Research, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of WisconsinÐMadison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 2 February 1998, in ®nal form 11 May 1998) ABSTRACT A coupled atmosphere±mixed layer ocean GCM (GENESIS2) is forced with altered orbital boundary conditions for paleoclimates warmer than modern (6 kyr BP) and colder than modern (115 kyr BP) in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere. A pair of experiments is run for each paleoclimate, one with sea-ice dynamics and one without, to determine the climatic effect of ice motion and to estimate the climatic changes at these times. At 6 kyr BP the central Arctic ice pack thins by about 0.5 m and the atmosphere warms by 0.7 K in the experiment with dynamic ice. At 115 kyr BP the central Arctic sea ice in the dynamical version thickens by 2±3 m, accompanied bya2Kcooling. The magnitude of these mean-annual simulated changes is smaller than that implied by paleoenvironmental evidence, suggesting that changes in other earth system components are needed to produce realistic simulations. Contrary to previous simulations without atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the dynamic sea-ice feedback is complicated and depends on the region, the climatic variable, and the sign of the forcing perturbation. Within the central Arctic, sea-ice motion signi®cantly reduces the amount of ice thickening at 115 kyr BP and thinning at 6 kyr BP, thus serving as a strong negative feedback in both pairs of simulations.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Climate Change
    LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES DIVISION Current References (90 -1) Global Climate Change FEBRUARY 1990 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental. Satellne. Data. and Information Service National Oceanographic Data Center GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A Selective Bibliography FEBRUARY 1990 In January 1989, a report entitled Our Changing Planet: A U.S. Strategy for Global Change Research accompanied the President's FY 1990 Budget to the Congress. This report announced the beginning of the multi-agency u.s. Global. Change Research Program, which will seek to improve understanding of the causes, processes, and consequences of the natural and human-induced changes in the global "Earth System." NOAA is the scientific agency with operational and research responsibilities for monitoring and short-term prediction of the state of the atmosphere and the oceans. It now operates a majority of the long-term measurement systems that must be adapted to document change more effectively; it is deeply involved in research aimed at understanding specific global processes; it develops climate simulation and prediction models which incorporate some of our current understandings of those processes; and .it operates a system of data centers on which an information system must be built. This bibliography offers a selection of references to documents related to global climate change, the aspect of the U.S. Global Change Research Program of most direct concern to NOAA. It is not intended to be a comprehensive literature review, but rather to be a selective compilation of current citations retrieved from relevant databases, including Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts; DOE's Energy Data Base; National Technical Information Service; and Aerospace Data Base.
    [Show full text]
  • The Global Monsoon Across Time Scales Mechanisms And
    Earth-Science Reviews 174 (2017) 84–121 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Earth-Science Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/earscirev The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues MARK ⁎ ⁎ Pin Xian Wanga, , Bin Wangb,c, , Hai Chengd,e, John Fasullof, ZhengTang Guog, Thorsten Kieferh, ZhengYu Liui,j a State Key Laboratory of Mar. Geol., Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China b Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96825, USA c Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China d Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China e Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA f CAS/NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Dr., Boulder, CO 80301, USA g Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9825, Beijing 100029, China h Future Earth, Global Hub Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, UPMC-CNRS, 75005 Paris, France i Laboratory Climate, Ocean and Atmospheric Studies, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China j Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The present paper addresses driving mechanisms of global monsoon (GM) variability and outstanding issues in Monsoon GM science. This is the second synthesis of the PAGES GM Working Group following the first synthesis “The Climate variability Global Monsoon across Time Scales: coherent variability of regional monsoons” published in 2014 (Climate of Monsoon mechanism the Past, 10, 2007–2052).
    [Show full text]
  • The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific
    15 AUGUST 2007 T I MMERMANN ET AL. 4147 The Effect of Orbital Forcing on the Mean Climate and Variability of the Tropical Pacific A. TIMMERMANN IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii S. J. LORENZ Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany S.-I. AN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea A. CLEMENT RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami, Miami, Florida S.-P. XIE IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii (Manuscript received 24 October 2005, in final form 22 December 2006) ABSTRACT Using a coupled general circulation model, the responses of the climate mean state, the annual cycle, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon to orbital changes are studied. The authors analyze a 1650-yr-long simulation with accelerated orbital forcing, representing the period from 142 000 yr B.P. (before present) to 22 900 yr A.P. (after present). The model simulation does not include the time-varying boundary conditions due to ice sheet and greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to the mean seasonal cycle of cloudiness in the off-equatorial regions, an annual mean precessional signal of temperatures is generated outside the equator. The resulting meridional SST gradient in the eastern equatorial Pacific modulates the annual mean meridional asymmetry and hence the strength of the equatorial annual cycle. In turn, changes of the equatorial annual cycle trigger abrupt changes of ENSO variability via frequency entrainment, resulting in an anticorrelation between annual cycle strength and ENSO amplitude on precessional time scales. 1. Introduction Recent greenhouse warming simulations performed with ENSO-resolving coupled general circulation mod- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a els (CGCMs) have revealed that the projected ampli- coupled tropical mode of interannual climate variability tude and pattern of future tropical Pacific warming that involves oceanic dynamics (Jin 1997) as well as (Timmermann et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Orbital Forcing of Climate 1.4 Billion Years Ago
    Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago Shuichang Zhanga, Xiaomei Wanga, Emma U. Hammarlundb, Huajian Wanga, M. Mafalda Costac, Christian J. Bjerrumd, James N. Connellyc, Baomin Zhanga, Lizeng Biane, and Donald E. Canfieldb,1 aKey Laboratory of Petroleum Geochemistry, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100083, China; bInstitute of Biology and Nordic Center for Earth Evolution, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark; cCentre for Star and Planet Formation, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; dDepartment of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Section of Geology, and Nordic Center for Earth Evolution, University of Copenhagen, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark; and eDepartment of Geosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China Contributed by Donald E. Canfield, February 9, 2015 (sent for review May 2, 2014) Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep tions. For example, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes the region of atmospheric upwelling near the equator, shifts its of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geo- average position based on the temperature contrast between the chemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term northern and southern hemispheres, with the ITCZ migrating in climate fluctuations from the exceptionally well-preserved ∼1.4- the direction of the warming hemisphere (11, 12). Therefore, the billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. ITCZ changes its position seasonally, but also on longer time We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales as controlled, for example, by the latitudinal distribution scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of solar insolation.
    [Show full text]