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From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century

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From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century Vsevolod Gunitskiy Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2011 © 2011 Vsevolod Gunitskiy All rights reserved ABSTRACT From Shocks to Waves: Hegemonic Transitions and Democratization in the Twentieth Century Vsevolod Gunitskiy What causes democratic waves? This dissertation argues that sudden shifts in the distribution of power among major states can help explain the wave-like spread of democracy over the past century. These hegemonic shocks lead to bursts of regime change by creating unique incentives and opportunities for domestic reforms, and do so through three sets of mechanisms – hegemonic coercion, influence, and emulation. Namely, shocks produce windows of opportunity for external regime imposition, enable rising great powers to expand networks of trade and patronage, and inspire imitators by credibly revealing hidden information about regime effectiveness to foreign audiences. I find strong statistical support for the idea that shifts in hegemonic power have shaped waves of democracy, fascism, and communism in the twentieth century. The statistical analysis is supplemented by case studies of three hegemonic shocks: World War I, the Great Depression, and World War II. The First World War produced the century’s first democratic wave by demonstrating democracy’s effectiveness to rulers on the battlefield and the factory floor, creating new states on the ruins of autocratic empires, and increasing the organizational power of women and working-class men. The wave also sowed the seeds of its own demise as rulers and coalitions, swept up in the postwar momentum, adopted liberal institutions in countries that lacked the social cohesion, political pre-conditions or economic stability necessary for democratic consolidation. Pro-reform coalitions that welcomed the reforms dissolved as the crisis passed. The economic rise of Nazi Germany and the crisis of liberal capitalism in the Great Depression inaugurated a fascist wave in the 1930s. In this period, fascist institutions penetrated the governments of many self-proclaimed authoritarians but also left a lasting legacy on the structure of modern democratic regimes. Growing fascist power and influence inspired a number of imitators, culminating in a series of fascist regime impositions at the outset of World War II. The outcome of that war produced not one but two rising great powers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Reflecting this duality, the war’s aftermath witnessed two distinct waves of institutional reforms that embodied the competing visions offered by the two superpowers. Despite the profound differences in their content, both regime waves diffused through a mixture of coercion (through occupation and nation-building), influence (via the expansion of trade, foreign aid, grants, and newly-forged international institutions), and emulation (by outsiders impressed with the self-evident success of the two systems). Departing from theories that focus on the internal determinants of domestic reforms, this dissertation argues that regime success in the twentieth century is deeply tied to rapid changes in the global distribution of power, a relationship often obscured by the vivid particularities of local transformations. CONTENTS List of Figures…………………...………………………………………………………..ii List of Tables……………………………………….…………………………….………iii Acknowledgments….……………………...…………………....…………..…….……iv Chapter 1 Introduction: A Century of Shocks and Waves……………………………………..…1 Chapter 2 Testing the Effects of Hegemonic Power…………………………………………..…57 Chapter 3 The Alchemy of War: A Case Study of World War One………………………..…112 Chapter 4 A Low Dishonest Decade: A Case Study of the Great Depression………………..181 Chapter 5 Two Ways of Life: A Case Study of World War Two………………………………301 Chapter 6 Conclusion: Beyond the Great Plateau…………………………………………...…373 Bibliography…….…………………………………………………………………..…383 i LIST OF FIGURES 1.1: Average global level of democracy, 1900-2000……………………………………………..……...4 1.2: Number of democracies as proportion of all states in the international system, 1900-2000…….4 1.3: Communist and Fascist shares of global power……………………………………...…………..….5 1.4: Number of fascist and communist states………………………………………......……………..….5 1.5: Average Hegemonic Volatility, 1900-2000………………………………………………………...19 1.6: Mimetic regime imposition by great powers, 1900-2000………..……………………...………..25 1.7: Soviet collapse and African democratization in the mid-1990s…………………………...….….30 1.8: A model of an institutional wave…….…..………………………………………………………....40 2.1: Average global democracy, Polity & SIP scores, 1900-2000 (standardized to 0-100)............…65 2.2 Democracies as a proportion of all states………………………………………………………..….65 2.3 Total number of democratic states………………………………………………………...………...66 2.4: Communist and fascist shares of global power, 1900-2000 (measured by CINC)…..............…67 2.5: Number of fascist and communist states, 1900-2000…………………………………………..…67 2.6: Number of fascist and communist states as proportion of all states………………......……...….68 2.7: Average Hegemonic Volatility (smoothed), 1900-2000…………………………………………..75 2.8: US and German Power (measured by CINC), 1920-1940………………………………………..76 2.9: Shares of hegemonic power bounded by salient regime spans.………………………………….78 2.10: Total regime promotion intensity, 1900-2000………….......…...…………………………….…90 2.11: Mimetic regime imposition by great powers, 1900-2000…………………...…………………..91 A1: Regional variations in the spread and retreat of democracy, 1900-2000……………………….103 A2: Total Regime Promotion Intensity by great powers, 1900-2000……………..............………...111 3.1: Total number of states in the international system, 1900-1930………………………………....113 3.2: The postwar democratic wave, as measured by Polity, 1900-1930………………...……….....117 3.3: The postwar democratic wave, as measured by SIP, 1900-1930………………….….………...118 3.4: US and German shares of hegemonic power, 1900-1930……………………………………....122 4.1: Relative powers, Germany vs. the United States…………………………………………………205 4.2: Number of fascist states, 1930-1945……………………………………………………………...205 4.3: Annual global democracy vs. % of global power under fascist regimes, 1930-1945………....206 4.4: US Power and the annual global democracy score (measured by SIP), 1930-1945.……….…207 5.1: Soviet share of hegemonic power, 1930-1960…………………………………………………...307 5.2: American share of hegemonic power, 1930-1960…………………………………………….…320 5.3: Average global level of democracy (1930-1970, using Polity IV)…………………………...….325 5.4: Total number of democratic states (states with a Polity score of at least 7)…….…………..….326 5.5: Democratic states as a proportion of all states in the international system……………….……326 5.6: Communist share of global power…………………………………………………………….…..327 5.7: Total number of communist states……………………………………………………………..….328 5.8: Number of communist states as a proportion of all states in the international system………..328 ii LIST OF TABLES 1.1: Hegemonic shock outcomes……………………………………………....…………………….….20 2.1: Measures of domestic regimes, summary statistics……………………………….…………….….62 2.2: Measures of hegemonic power, 1900-2000…………………………………….……………..…..79 2.3. Systemic effects of hegemonic power………………………………………….…………………...80 2.4: Summary statistics, control variables…………………………………….……………………..…..83 2.5: Country-level effects of hegemonic power…………………………………………………………85 2.6: Model 5 from Table 2.2 with fixed effects………………………….…………………………..…..87 2.7: External interventions, promoter types 1900-2000………………………………………………..92 A1. Regional Effects…………………………………………………………………….………………..105 A2: Replication of Model 1 from Gleditsch and Ward 2006……………………………...………….108 A3: Model 1 with the addition of avchusshare…………………………………….……………….….109 3.1 Female Suffrage Expansion, 1917-1924………………………………….……………………..….146 3.2: New Democracies created by WWI……………………………….…………………………..….150 4.1 The Fascist Order in Festung Europa………………………………….…………………………....295 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thanks must go first of all to my advising committee – Jack Snyder, Ken Waltz, and Tanisha Fazal. Jack Snyder has overseen this project from the very beginning; his guidance and encyclopedic knowledge of democratization has greatly improved the dissertation along the way. Ken Waltz has been an enormous influence on my views about theory in international relations, and that influence suffuses these pages in ways that citations cannot capture. The clarity and richness of his work sets a standard for all scholars of political science. Tanisha Fazal has been instrumental in helping me deal with theoretical objections and developing my knowledge of statistical procedures. Between the three of them they have provided just the right mixture of coercion, influence, and emulation. The department of political science at Columbia University has been a great place to write this dissertation. Valuable conversations with Richard Betts, Virginia Page Fortna, Robert Jervis, and Pablo Pinto helped me to frame and augment the arguments. Without their help and the generosity of my advisors this work would not be possible. Since debt, as Disraeli warned, is the prolific mother of folly, I hasten to claim sole credit for the shortcomings, weaknesses, and omissions found in these pages. iv This project owes an intellectual debt to Samuel Huntington. A disagreement can be a dead end or a point of departure. Despite my disagreements with
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