From Ingrid / Manuel, Odile, and Patricia, to Earl: What did we knew, and what happened?
UN-GGIM International Forum on Geospatial Information and Services for Disasters
Dr. Carlos Miguel Valdés González Barbados September 2016 Recent critical events and planning for disaster prevention.
(Learned lessons)
Tropical Storm Manuel and hurricane Ingrid.
Hurricane Earl Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid. September 2013. Knowledge of the phenomena: INGRID and MANUEL September 15, 2013
Stationary systems, producing a lot of rain.
Credits: NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Caption by Holli Riebeek. Liga: http://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82080
Information was transmitted, but not received or understood by the most vulnerable sectors. The accumulated water in the country, was sufficient to fill up completely all 4,462 water dams. A lot of water, has important consequences on infrastructure. People and authorities did not see “rain for two days” as a mayor treat. People and authorities did not perceived the “small river ” as a treat. Unfortunately looting took place. New developments were established On the wrong place. Small communities got heavily affected. We have to learn, water will do whatever it takes, to find its own course. Important infrastructure has to be well planned. Landslides took the lives of many people. killed Built better.
Bridge is larger, taller and with deeper foundations, than the previous one. The new bridge was more expensive, but will last much longer. Solidarity and help is always present. Authorities got involved and carried on actions.
Federal institutions got involved and helped immediately. Private companies also got involved.
You are alive, that is what matters.
Do not lose faith.
Keep hope. Hurricane Odile. September 2014. ODILE September, 2014
Tropical Storm, September 10th, 2014 Lesson: Act soon. Involve authorities.
Oaxaca State, Civil Protection Council meets, to evaluate Odile´s trajectory. September 13, 2014.
Odile turns into Hurricane category 1. Baja California still far away. Erratic trajectory.
Hurricane Cat. 1 September 14th, 2014
National Meteorological Services advices: Odile is Category 4. Trajectory is not erratic any more. Will hit Baja California Sur. September 14th, 2014
At 12:00 hrs National Emergency Council, assembles. All Federal Agencies participate. Preventive measures are issued.
Hurricane Cat. 4
September 14 and 15, 2014.
Odile landed the night and down of the 14 and 15 of September. Lands as Hurricane Category 3. Odile destroys: - All electric power - Water supply - Damages hotels and the airport.
September 15th., 2014. National Emergency Council, works in a permanent session, coordinating all the Federal Agencies. Odile, downgrades to Category 2.
HURRICANE ODILE, SEPTEMBER, 2014
Créditos: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team Liga: http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/odile- eastern-pacific/#.VhQEaPl_NBc People preparing. People on vacation, stranded inside hotels. The effects. Vulnerable houses and well built houses. International airport damaged and with no electrical power. Airport interior and exterior damaged. Electric power was completely lost in Los Cabos. Important damage produced by wind. A touristic zone, largely affected. No hotels, no tourists, no income. Federal institutions responded immediately to help people in distress. Private companies also, responded immediately. Every one helped. Planes from the Federal Police, Navy, Army, and private companies, helped with 240 flights, to evacuate 27,000 tourists in four days. Again, looting!
There was no need to do it. Help was already under way. People from other parts of Mexico helped. Authorities at all levels, visited and worked to get Los Cabos operational again. In 20 days, Los Cabos was ready to receive tourists again. PREVENTIVE ACTIONS FOR HURRICANE PATRICIA. Background
Starts as a Tropical Depression 20-E, located 400 Km away from Puerto Escondido, State of Oaxaca. It moves towards the West.
31°C
(fuente: Boletín SIAT- CT CENAPR Forecast
Imminent impact on national territory on Colima and Jalisco States.
(fuente: Boletín SIAT- CT CENAPRE Hurricane Patricia Category 1. Date: October 22nd, 07:00 Category: 1 Position: 375 Km SSW of Michoacan. Wind Speed: 150 km/hr (93 mi/hr). Wind Gusts: 180 km/hr (111 mi/hr).
National Emergency Council
The Council starts working on Thursday 22nd, at 13:00 hrs. Patricia is coming. All Ministries: Interior, Health, Communications, Energy, Finances, Development, Agriculture, Land Development, Army, Navy, Federal Police, Electric Power Co., Oil Co., etc. Hurricane Patricia Category 4. Date: October 22nd, 13:00 Category: 4 Position: 350 Km SSW of Colima. Wind Speed: 215 km/hr (133 mi/hr). Wind Gusts: 260 km/hr (161 mi/hr). Barometric Pressure: 958 hPa. Speed: 28 km/hr Eye diameter: 19 Km. Patricia gets stronger
Roberto Ramírez, director of the National Council for Water, where the National Meteorological Mexican Service operates, states that Patricia is the most intense hurricane ever to hit Mexico. Patricia will touch land on Friday between 16 and 18 hrs. Hurricane Patricia Category 5. Date: October 22nd, 22:00 Category: 5 Position: 320 Km SSW of Manzanillo. Wind Speed: 260 km/hr (161 mi/hr). Wind Gusts: 315 km/hr (195 mi/hr). Barometric Pressure: 924 hPa. Speed: 17 km/hr NNW Eye diameter: 19 Km. PREVISION and EVACUATION from risk zones.
People moving out and protecting their states.
(fuente: El UNIVERSAL 23/10/15) Hurricane Patricia Category 5+ Maximum intensity. Date: October 23nd, 04:00 Category: 5 + Position: 255 Km SSW of Manzanillo. Wind Speed: 325 km/hr (201 mi/hr). Wind Gusts: 400 km/hr (248 mi/hr). Barometric Pressure: 880 hPa. Speed: 19 km/hr NNW Eye diameter: 19 Km. PREVISION and EVACUATION from risk zones.
Before Hurricane Patricia landed, municipal and state authorities initiated an evacuation in the risk communities. About 15,000 people moved to temporal shelters.
(source: El UNIVERSAL 23-24/10/15 Warning of risk
CONAGUA, advises of storm surge.
Warning of risk
CONAGUA informs: a lot of water 75 a 150 millimeters, and in some points 150 to 250 mm.
Hurricane Patricia Category 5
Date: October 23nd, 18:00 Category: 5 Position: Bahía de Tenacatita, Jalisco. Wind Speed: 280 km/hr (173 mi/hr). Wind Gusts: 305 km/hr (189 mi/hr). Barometric Pressure: 900 hPa. Speed: 22 km/hr NNE Eye diameter: 9 Km. The president and his whole cabinet, attentive to the development of the hurricane. Patricia lands
At 18:00, Patricia touches land as category 5, with winds up to 305 km/hr close to Tenacatita.
(fuente: El INFORMADOR 24/10/15) Hurricane Patricia Category 2
Date: October 24th, 01:00. Category: 2 Position: North of Jalisco. Wind Speed: 155 km/hr ( 96 mi/hr) Wind Gusts: 185 km/hr (114 mi/hr). Rain Precipitation las 24 hrs: 270 mm
After Patricia´s impact.
State of Jalisco, asked for a Declaration of Disaster in 15 municipalities.
(Source: El INFORMADOR 28/10/15) No human lives lost.
Although the forecast was catastrophic, only material damage was done. A lot of water and flooding. Media coverage and information is everywhere. Timely and useful Information Only two official sources.
Luis Felipe Puente Espinosa.
Roberto Ramírez de la Parra. Authorities at all levels, including the president of México, Enrique Peña Nieto, were always aware of and followed every development of Hurricane Patricia. President visits the zone of impact, next day to take reconstruction actions. Yes, there there were damages in the area, but no victims.
No looting! Supermarkets were filled before “Patricia”. Gas stations only were replenished. Learned lessons
Prevention will be the best action. Hurricane Earl. July 2016. Knowledge of the impact. National map of slope instability. People and goods exposed.
People Houses Hospitals Schools
Supermarkets Airports Hotels Banks
Gas stations Dams Cattle units Neighborhoods Risk to landslide: High
Exposure: 103 K people 25 K houses 238 schools 17 hospitals 16 banks 4 gas stations
Vulnerability: High
¿What happened? Jaltepec, Puebla.
Inadecuate use of the land. Jaltepec, Puebla.
Mountain side, converted to corn field. Jaltepec, common practice in this region, to use the mountain side, without Considering the potential risk.
Coacuila, Puebla.
Abuse of land use. Coacuila.
10 m.
100 m.
Buildings, right at the edge of the mountain. Coacuila.
Southwest view. Other houses highly vulnerable. Coacuila.
Drainage pipes
¿Who is the culprit? Difusión de la Cultura de la Prevención y Autoprotección
• Tomar conciencia de los riesgos y participar en su reducción
• Contribuir a una sociedad más informada y preparada en la prevención y autoprotección
Recursos de Información
Promoción cultural Visitas Guiadas, Eventos, exposiciones y ferias, alianzas, etc
Recursos de Información
Comunicación social y digital Atención a medios Página web, redes sociales Campañas
Ante sismos Prepararnos es nuestra responsabilidad. Me'phaa (TLAPANECO) de Guerrero con el apoyo de la CDI. Economic losses caused by large hidro-metheorological phenomena, that have affected Mexico from 2013-2016.
Losses in Losses in Event Year Lives lost Millon MX$ Million US$
Ingrid y 2013 $ 34, 829 $2,679 157 Manuel Odile 2014 $ 24,133 $1,791 3 Patricia 2015 $ 4, 016 $238 0 Earl 2016 $ 2,500 $133 50 Lessons:
- Knowledge of phenomena has to be appropriated by people and authorities.
- One official alerting voice is recommended.
- Federal, state and municipal authorities have an important role, and should work together.
- Preventive actions should be carried well in advance.
- Media communication plays a crucial role transmitting the adequate information.
- The presence of the president, before, during and after an emergency, sets the level of importance that each citizen represents for the authorities.
- To prevent is to live. Prevenir es vivir.
MAYOR INFORMACIÓN:
Dr.. Carlos Miguel Valdés González Director del Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres [email protected]
www.segob.gob.mx @segob_mx
protección civil federal: www.proteccioncivil.gob.mx @pcsegob