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Riesgo Volcanico a Escala Nacional/Regional: Estudio Comparado De Variantes Metodologicas, Para Su Evaluacion Y Adaptacion Al Contexto Volcanico De Chile”

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Riesgo Volcanico a Escala Nacional/Regional: Estudio Comparado De Variantes Metodologicas, Para Su Evaluacion Y Adaptacion Al Contexto Volcanico De Chile” UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS FISICAS Y MATEMATICAS DEPARTAMENTO DE GEOLOGIA “RIESGO VOLCANICO A ESCALA NACIONAL/REGIONAL: ESTUDIO COMPARADO DE VARIANTES METODOLOGICAS, PARA SU EVALUACION Y ADAPTACION AL CONTEXTO VOLCANICO DE CHILE” TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE MAGISTER EN CIENCIAS MENCION GEOLOGIA DIEGO MAURICIO AGUILERA SAEZ PROFESORA GUÍA: SOFIA REBOLLEDO LEMUS PROFESOR CO-GUÍA: LUIS LARA PULGAR MIEMBROS DE LA COMISIÓN SERGIO SEPULVEDA VALENZUELA ANGELO CASTRUCCIO ALVAREZ SANTIAGO DE CHILE 2016 I.-RESUMEN DE LA TESIS PARA OPTAR AL GRADO DE: Magíster en Ciencias mención Geología POR: Diego Mauricio Aguilera Sáez Fecha: 26 Abril de 2016 Profesor Guía y Co-Guía: Sofía Rebolledo,Luis Lara RIESGO VOLCANICO A ESCALA NACIONAL/REGIONAL: ESTUDIO COMPARADO DE VARIANTES METODOLOGICAS, PARA SU EVALUACION Y ADAPTACION AL CONTEXTO VOLCANICO DE CHILE El Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), mediante la adaptación de la metodología National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS), desarrollada por el Servicio de Geología de los Estados Unidos, ha determinado el riesgo asociado a los 90 volcanes activos que existen en Chile. Por otra parte, investigadores de la Universidad de Bristol, utilizando el listado de los países acogidos al “Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) of the World Bank”, en el estudio llamado “Volcano hazard and exposure in GFDRR priority countries and risk mitigation Measures”, desarrollaron una metodología para la evaluación del riesgo volcánico (Metodología de la Universidad de Bristol, MUB). En ésta se estima el nivel de peligro, el nivel de incerteza según la disponibilidad de información y el índice de exposición de la población. El riesgo de cada volcán se estima de la combinación del peligro y la exposición, en un área espacial determinada. De acuerdo a lo anterior, el presente estudio consistió en realizar la evaluación del riesgo volcánico a los 90 volcanes activos de Chile con la mencionada metodología y comparar los resultados con aquellos obtenidos por SERNAGEOMIN con el fin de realizar un análisis integrado de los resultados de ambas metodologías que permite establecer para cada volcán la mejor metodología para evaluar el riesgo volcánico asociado. Aplicando la metodología de la Universidad de Bristol, se han obtenido cuatro volcanes con un nivel de riesgo medio (Villarrica, Calbuco, Fui e Isla de Pascua), mientras que los 86 volcanes activos restantes han sido categorizados con un nivel de riesgo bajo, sin tener volcanes en categoría de riesgo alto. Mientras que en la metodología NVEWS-SERNAGEOMIN son 12 los volcanes que tienen un nivel de riesgo muy alto, 19 con un nivel de riesgo alto, 17 volcanes están en la categoría de riesgo medio, 15 tienen un nivel de riesgo bajo y 27 volcanes activos están en la categoría de bajo riesgo. Estos resultados indican las evidentes diferencias entre ambas metodologías lo que ha motivado el desarrollo de este trabajo, para poder determinar la que mejor se puede aplicar al contexto volcánico de Chile. Finalmente se propone utilizar la metodología NVEWS-SERNAGEOMIN para evaluar el ranking de riesgo, la MUB para determinar las áreas de peligro excluyendo aquellas zonas de altas pendientes y además se propone realizar una adaptación de la MUB al contexto volcánico de Chile, reasignando nuevos puentajes de peligro y vulnerabilidad mendiante el proceso de análisis jerarquico (PAJ). i II.- Tabla de Contenido I.-Resumen ___________________________________________________________________ i II.- Tabla de Contenido _________________________________________________________ ii III.-Indice de Tablas ____________________________________________________________ v IV.-Índice de Gráficos __________________________________________________________ vi V.-Índice de Figuras ____________________________________________________________ vi CAPÍTULO 1.-INTRODUCCIÓN __________________________________________________ 1 1.1.-Objetivos __________________________________________________________ 4 1.2.-Metodología _______________________________________________________ 5 1.3.- Ubicación de los volcanes a evaluar. ___________________________________ 7 CAPÍTULO 2.- MARCO TECTÓNICO ______________________________________________ 8 CAPITULO 3.- METODOLOGÍAS PARA ESTIMAR RIESGO VOLCÁNICO _______________ 17 3.1.-Metodología de “Volcano hazard and exposure in GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) priority countries and risk mitigation Measures” (Metodología Universidad de Bristol, MUB) _____________________________________________ 17 3.1.1.-Factores para evaluar el peligro e incerteza __________________________ 17 Tipo de Volcán ____________________________________________________ 18 Presencia de un lago en el cráter o de capas de hielo o nieve _______________ 19 Flujos piroclásticos _________________________________________________ 20 Peligro de lahar ___________________________________________________ 21 Peligro de lava ____________________________________________________ 23 Cantidad de subcaracterísticas _______________________________________ 24 IEV máximo ______________________________________________________ 25 Frecuencia de erupción _____________________________________________ 26 3.1.2.-Índice de exposición de la población ________________________________ 27 3.1.3.-Riesgo volcánico _______________________________________________ 28 3.1.4.-Evaluación de la capacidad de monitoreo de riesgo volcánico ____________ 29 Frecuencia de monitoreo ____________________________________________ 29 Existencia y proximidad a las redes sísmicas ____________________________ 30 3.1.5.-Análisis frecuencia de magnitud ___________________________________ 31 3.1.6.-Determinar áreas de peligro (Análisis en GIS) ________________________ 32 3.2.- Metodología NVEWS-SERNAGEOMIN ________________________________ 33 3.2.1.-Factores de peligro _____________________________________________ 33 Tipo de Volcán ____________________________________________________ 33 Máximo Índice de Explosividad Volcánica (IEV) __________________________ 34 Actividad explosiva <500 años _______________________________________ 35 Actividad explosiva < 5.000 años _____________________________________ 35 Recurrencia Eruptiva _______________________________________________ 35 Ocurrencia de Flujos piroclásticos en el Holoceno ________________________ 36 Ocurrencia de lahares en el Holoceno __________________________________ 36 Ocurrencia de tsunamis en el Holoceno ________________________________ 36 Potencial de explosiones hidrotermales ________________________________ 37 Potencial de colapso de flanco _______________________________________ 37 Potencial de generación de lahares ____________________________________ 37 Actividad Sísmica __________________________________________________ 37 Deformación ______________________________________________________ 37 Desgasificación ___________________________________________________ 38 ii 3.2.2.-Factores de exposición (vulnerabilidad) _____________________________ 38 Población en zona de alto peligro _____________________________________ 38 Población en zona distal ____________________________________________ 39 Víctimas fatales ___________________________________________________ 39 Evacuaciones _____________________________________________________ 39 Exposición de la aviación local _______________________________________ 39 Exposición de la aviación regional _____________________________________ 39 Infraestructura energética ___________________________________________ 40 Infraestructura de transportes ________________________________________ 40 Áreas de desarrollo o protección ______________________________________ 40 Islas Volcánicas ___________________________________________________ 40 3.2.3.-Riesgo Volcánico _______________________________________________ 41 3.2.4.-Determinar áreas de peligro (Análisis en GIS) ________________________ 41 Área proximal: lavas, lahares, avalanchas volcánicas y flujos piroclásticos _____ 41 Área proximal y distal: caída de piroclastos ______________________________ 44 CAPÍTULO 4.-RESULTADOS Y ANÁLISIS DE LA METODOLOGÍA DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DE BRISTOL ___________________________________________________________________ 48 4.1.- Resultados de la metodología de la Universidad de Bristol _________________ 48 4.1.1.- Valores de peligro e incerteza ____________________________________ 48 4.1.2.- Valores de peligro y exposición ___________________________________ 50 4.1.3.- Nivel de riesgo ________________________________________________ 52 4.1.4.- Nivel de riesgo con monitoreo ____________________________________ 53 4.1.5.- Análisis de frecuencia de magnitud ________________________________ 54 4.1.6.- Análisis de Valores de Peligro ____________________________________ 55 4.1.7.- Análisis de Valores de Exposición _________________________________ 58 4.1.8.- Análisis de Áreas de Peligro ______________________________________ 61 CAPÍTULO 5.-COMPARACIÓN DE LAS METODOLOGÍAS ___________________________ 63 5.1.- Análisis detallado de ambas metodologías mediante estudios de casos _______ 63 5.1.1.- Resultados de ambas metodologías para el volcán Taapaca ____________ 63 5.1.1.1.-Evaluación del peligro del volcán Taapaca, con la metodología de la Universidad de Bristol ________________________________________________________ 63 5.1.1.2.-Evaluación de la exposición del volcán Taapaca ___________________ 64 5.1.1.3.-Evaluación del riesgo del volcán Taapaca ________________________ 65 5.1.1.4.-Evaluación de la capacidad de monitoreo
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