The Rise of Political Economy as a Science Methodology and the Classical Economists

Deborah A. Redman

The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England Contents

List of Illustrations ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xvii

I The Heritage 1

1 Introduction: Scope, Purpose, and Limitations of this Study 3

2 The Philosophical Background: Thinkers Who Influenced the Classical Economists 9 Francis Bacon (1561-1626) and the Philosophy of Science 11 Rene Descartes (1596-1650): Mathematical Scientist 21 Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679): Philosophizing vs. Experimentation 35 Isaac Newton (1642-1727): The Deductive-Mathematical Experimental Method 43 John Locke (1632-1704), Epistemological Uncertainty, and the "Historical, Plain Method" 61 David Hume (1711-1776): Pioneer in Moral Philosophy 69 Dugald Stewart (1753-1828) and Scottish Philosophy of Science 83 . Sir John F. W. Herschel {1792-1871): Model Philosopher 86 William Whewell (1794-1866), Gentleman of Science 93 vi Contents

3 Science in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century Britain 101 The Emergence of Moral Philosophy 102 The Science of Man 110 The Method of Analysis and Synthesis 128 The Clock Metaphor 131 Social Engineering and the Diffusion of Economic Knowledge 135 - The Birth of Econometrics 142

4 A Short History of Induction 159 Bacon's Theory of Induction 162 A Closer Look at Newton's Third Step 171 The Myth of Causality and Its Consequences 173 Induction in the Hands of the Scots 184 Induction's Heyday: Herschel, Mill, and Whewell 189 Jevons and the Decline of Induction 198 The New Approach to Induction: Probability Theory 200 Karl Popper: Induction as Myth 202

II Classical Economic Methodology 205

5 Adam Smith and His "Newtonian Method" 207 The Tie to Newton 208 Departures from Newtonian Method 215 The Significance of the Essay "The History of Astronomy" 220 Tying Up Odds and Ends: Other Clues to Smith's Method 227 The Legitimation of Science in Smith's System 232 Lessons for Today's Economist 253

>- 6 Malthus and Ricardo: Opposing or Complementary Methods? 259 Malleable Scientific Reputations 259 Education and Accomplishments 268 The Methodological Dialogue 283 Significance and Legacy of the Malthus-Ricardo Dialogue 316 Contents vii

7 John Stuart Mill: Last of the Newtonians 321 The Historical Setting: Interest in Philosophy of Science Awakened 321 Mill's Analysis of the Methods of Natural Science 326 The Development of a Method of Social Science 331 The Inexact Science of Political Economy 338 Mill on Specific Methodological Issues in Political Economy 343 Mill's Place in the History and Philosophy of Science 352

8 Concluding Remarks 355

Appendix: Science and The Gentleman's Magazine, 1731-1759 361 Selected Bibliography by Topic 377 Sources Cited 421 Author Index 447 Subject Index 461