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A Legal-Scientific Analysis of the Warren Commission's Single Bullet

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A Legal-Scientific Analysis of the Warren Commission's Single Bullet The Magic Bullet: A Legal-Scientific analysis of the Warren Commission’s Single Bullet Theory Andrew M. Mason1 Since its publication in 1964, the Report of the President’s Commission on the Assassination of President John F. Kennedy 2 has been mired in controversy. In reaching its conclusion that President Kennedy was the victim of a lone assassin, the Warren Commission adopted the “single bullet theory” to explain the sequence of three shots directed at the President’s limousine. Three of the seven Commission members apparently disagreed with the theory on the grounds that the evidence did not support it. The lack of clear evidence for the theory and its inconsistency with key eyewitness testimony has provided fertile ground for conspiracy theorists who allege that the explanation was concocted to support the Commission’s conclusion that all shots were fired from Oswald’s rifle.3 According to the single bullet theory, a one-inch long, copper jacketed, lead core 6.5 millimeter rifle bullet fired from the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository passed through President Kennedy’s neck, Governor Connally’s chest and wrist and embedded itself in the Governor’s thigh. In doing so, the bullet traversed 19 layers of clothing, 7 layers of skin, approximately 15 inches of tissue, struck a tie knot, removed 4 inches of rib and shattered a radius bone. Despite leaving several small particles of lead behind in the Governor’s wounds, the missile emerged from its tortuous journey remarkably unscathed. The bullet that is supposed to have done all this damage was found on Governor Connally’s stretcher in the corridor at the Parkland Hospital in Dallas. It became a key Commission exhibit, identified as CE399. It resembled a pristine bullet with its copper jacket completely intact. The bullet’s nose appeared normal but the tail was compressed laterally on one side. It weighed 158.6 grains, or about 2.2 grains less than the average weight of an unfired bullet.4 Despite much criticism of the single bullet theory, no one has been able to offer another explanation that is consistent with the Commission’s conclusion that all shots were fired from the same gun. It is not surprising, therefore, that the single bullet theory has been staunchly defended by those who believe the Warren Commission’s finding was correct and roundly criticized by those who disagree.5 In this paper a comprehensive review and analysis of the evidence relating to the single bullet theory is undertaken. Evidence that has become available since 1964 is included in this review. As a first step in this analysis, fact and opinion are separated to see what conclusions flow from the evidence. When the expert opinion is put to the side, a consistent picture emerges from the photographic evidence, eyewitness testimony, and the physical and medical evidence. This picture is not consistent with the Commission’s single bullet theory. In reviewing the expert evidence, it becomes apparent that much of the opinion relating to the trajectory of the bullet that struck President Kennedy in the neck is based on a badly flawed re-enactment of the assassination in which the wrong vehicle was used. By examining the photographs and scale drawings of the President’s car, the trajectory for the first bullet can be determined by geometry, based on the simple and probable assumption that the first bullet did not change direction in passing through the President’s neck. Given the magnitude of the task and the relatively short time to work, it is not surprising that the Commission made mistakes.6 This paper is not intended as a criticism of the Commission. The purpose of this paper is merely to demonstrate that the single bullet theory is incompatible with the facts and to 2 show that a simpler explanation flows naturally from the evidence. Nevertheless, the conclusion that Governor Connally’s wounds were not all caused by the same bullet that struck the President casts doubt upon other findings of the Warren Commission, including its view that Oswald was the lone assassin. This paper raises, but does not answer, these questions. The Reasons For and Against the Single Bullet Theory The single bullet theory was created to explain how both Governor Connally and President Kennedy could have been wounded by frame 240 of the Zapruder film if, as the Commission found, neither had been hit before frame 210.7 There was not sufficient time for Oswald to have fired two shots from his bolt-action Mannlicher-Carcano rifle within this time interval. The Commission concluded it was likely that one bullet caused the President’s neck wound and all of the Governor’s wounds. The Report of the Warren Commission provides two reasons the majority of Commission members found the single bullet theory compelling: 1. The bullet that passed through President Kennedy’s neck did not directly hit any bone and made a clean exit wound. Simulation tests showed that the bullet likely exited the President’s neck at more than three-quarters of its original speed. Its trajectory indicated that it must have continued on to hit something or someone inside the car. It should have made a noticeable mark if it struck the interior of the car traveling at this speed and no such mark was found. The absence of a bullet mark in the interior of the President’s limousine meant that the bullet that exited the President’s neck must have struck Governor Connally. The Commission accepted that Governor Connally’s three wounds were made by the same bullet. 2. Although the trajectory of the first bullet seems to go to the left, it was thought that the Governor could have been seated sufficiently far to the left for his right armpit to align with the bullet trajectory. Since the Warren Commission Report was published, a third reason has been advanced to support the single bullet theory: 3. The FBI arranged for physical analyses of bullet CE399 and the various bullet fragments found in the Governor’s wrist wounds and on the car floor. Pieces of the metal fragments and whole bullet were subjected to Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) which is a very accurate method of determining relative proportions of trace elements in material. The Warren Commission apparently found that this evidence was inconclusive and did not refer to it in its report. However, in 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) revisited these tests and heard from an expert who was of the opinion that the data supported the single bullet theory. There are three main arguments against the single bullet hypothesis: 1. Governor Connally was adamant that he was hit by the second shot. He said that after he heard the first shot and after he had turned to his right to see the President he felt the bullet hit him from behind. He said that he reacted immediately and collapsed into his wife’s lap. Mrs. Connally recalled that she heard the first shot, saw the President clutch his throat and then heard the second shot and saw her husband hit by it. Other witnesses said they saw much the same thing. 2. For the single bullet theory to work, the bullet path from President Kennedy’s throat to Governor Connally’s right armpit had to align with a path moving from right to left through both men. This required Governor Connally to be seated with his right shoulder to the left of the President’s neck. It is not apparent that the bullet paths are ever aligned or even close. 3 3. If the single bullet theory is correct, one of the three bullets must have missed the President’s limousine entirely. An FBI reconstruction of the shooting showed that this was unlikely. A critical examination of these reasons requires a careful review and analysis of the evidence. 1. The Eyewitnesses The Time of the First Shot The Warren Commission acknowledged that it was difficult to pinpoint the time of the first shot but concluded that it likely occurred between frames Z210 and Z225 of the Zapruder film.8 The President showed no clear sign of reacting to a bullet when he all but disappeared from Abraham Zapruder’s view at frame Z204 as the car passed behind the Stemmons Freeway sign. He was visibly reacting to his neck wound when he began to emerge from behind the sign about a second later at Z225 and his hands appear to be at the same position in the previous frame, Z224 (see infra, page 12). If the President was reacting to his neck wound at Z224, the first shot must have occurred before Z224. Allowing for some time for the human brain to realize that something happened and for the muscles to respond, the latest time for the first shot would have to be a few frames before Z224. According to the evidence, there were two photographs taken very close to the moment of the first shot. The first is Hugh Betzner’s #3 photograph which, as Mr. Betzner testified in an affidavit sworn on the day of the assassination, was taken just before the first shot. He said that he took this photograph and had just started winding his camera to take another when he heard the first shot.9 Hugh Betzner’s #3 photo said to be taken less than a second before the first shot at Z186 Enlarged detail, right: President Kennedy between Secret Service agents and man on left. The second is Phillip Willis’ #5 photograph. Willis testified that this photograph was taken at the very instant the first shot was heard.
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