Growing OUTER Pains MELBOURNE > RACV’s blueprint for road and public transport projects needed in outer Melbourne RACV’S BLUEPRINT FOR ROAD AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS NEEDED IN OUTER MELBOURNE AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS ROAD FOR BLUEPRINT RACV’S GROWING PAINS Population growth Growing pains A great place to live For Melbourne to be a world-class connected city, our transport Melbourne’s outer suburbs are a great place to live. The extra networks must reach well beyond its centre. space, proximity to nature and affordable land make the outer RACV recognises how important our outer suburbs are to the fringe an attractive place for Melburnians to buy their first Whittlesea overall health and vitality of our city, but is concerned by the home, settle or retire. But none of the financial and lifestyle Hume 4.1% following facts: benefits of living in the outer suburbs can be realised if daily 2.8% Nillumbik commutes are exhausting and even local travel is a struggle. • Victoria’s population is forecast to increase from just over 0.2% 6 million to approximately 10 million by 2050. Most will settle RACV wants outer communities to enjoy a wide range of in Greater Melbourne, many in outer suburbs. transport options that are seamlessly linked, safe, convenient, Melton efficient and affordable. To achieve these goals, RACV calls for 4.3% 6 7 17 Yarra Ranges • By 2031, our population in the outer suburbs will have 8 overtaken the total population of Melbourne’s inner and urgent upgrades to ageing and stressed transport networks 16 0.5% middle suburbs. in our more mature outer suburbs in the north, east and south, Manningham • It is estimated that by 2050, Melbourne’s transport networks plus the timely provision of transport infrastructure in our 2 3 1.0% Maroondah 1 13 will need to cope with 23 million trips per day, nearly double ever-expanding growth corridors, including some of our newest 11 1.1% 12 5 the current figure of 12.5 million. in the south-east, north and west. 4 Middle and inner Wyndham Knox 1. Melbourne 10 2. Maribyrnong To help cope with this population growth and set up 4.8% 9 0.6% outer Melbourne for success, RACV has developed its 15 3. Yarra 4. Stonnington Growing Pains plan for 2018. 5. Port Phillip 14 6. Moreland Greater 7. Darebin Dandenong 8. Moonee Valley 1.8% 9. Glen Eira 10. Monash 11. Whitehorse Cardinia 12. Hobsons Bay Frankston Casey 4.5% 13. Boroondara 0.9% 14. Kingston 2.9% 15. Bayside 16. Brimbank 17. Banyule Mornington Peninsula 1.0% Population Growth across greater Melbourne 3.0 2.8 (Millions) 2.6 Outer Melbourne 2.4 Persons Persons Middle and 2.2 Inner Melbourne 2.0 2011 2021 2031 Source: via Victoria in Future 2016 * Forecast % change in population 2011-2021, Population growth Source: Victoria in Future 2016. Whittlesea Hume 4.1% 2.8% Nillumbik 0.2% Melton 4.3% 6 7 17 Yarra Ranges 8 16 0.5% Manningham 2 3 1.0% Maroondah 1 13 11 1.1% 12 5 4 Middle and inner Wyndham Knox 1. Melbourne 9 10 2. Maribyrnong 4.8% 15 0.6% 3. Yarra 4. Stonnington 5. Port Phillip 14 6. Moreland Greater 7. Darebin Dandenong 8. Moonee Valley 1.8% 9. Glen Eira 10. Monash 11. Whitehorse Cardinia 12. Hobsons Bay Frankston Casey 4.5% 13. Boroondara 0.9% 14. Kingston 2.9% 15. Bayside 16. Brimbank 17. Banyule Mornington Peninsula 1.0% A growing problem For 10 years Victoria’s population growth has been the strongest of any Australian state or territory. Population Growth across greater Melbourne Victoria’s population will continue to grow and is forecast to increase from just over 6 million to approximately 10 million by 2050. Despite strong projected growth in Victoria’s regional areas, the 3.0 vast majority will settle in Greater Melbourne, which 2.8 continues to face the challenge of housing our growing population. (Millions) 2.6 Outer Melbourne 2.4 While new housing will be created through higher Persons Persons densities and urban renewal in the central city 2.2 Middle and Inner Melbourne and established inner and middle suburbs across 2.0 Melbourne, much of our new population is moving 2011 2021 2031 to its outer suburbs. By 2031, our population in the outer suburbs (which are the subject of this report) will have overtaken the total population of Melbourne’s inner and middle suburbs. Source: via Victoria in Future 2016 RACV’S BLUEPRINT FOR ROAD AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS NEEDED IN OUTER MELBOURNE AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS ROAD FOR BLUEPRINT RACV’S GROWING PAINS Expansion into the outer areas is not new for Melbourne. new housing and much of the city’s future supply of industrial Land is cheaper on the fringe and many residents value land planned for our growth areas, the outer suburbs will space over proximity to the city. The State Government’s Plan shoulder a high proportion of the escalating transport load. Melbourne notes that Melbourne’s greenfield lots are the second-cheapest among Australia’s capital cities. It is vital that Melbourne’s growth areas are set up for success. Our governments must ensure that the right infrastructure is Melbourne’s outer south-east has long been a corridor of major in place to accommodate this unprecedented and continuing growth. By 2031 it is expected that Casey will have established growth in population and travel demand. itself as our most populous region with well over 400,000 residents, as many as Canberra. And after many years of steady growth in the south-east, growth is apace in Melbourne’s Outer-suburban pain west and north. Data compiled by the Australian Bureau of In the outer suburbs, transport networks have fallen behind Statistics shows that population growth in the south-east is and are not meeting the demands of our population. Inadequate being matched in our northern and western districts. Tarneit in public transport, gaps in the road network and congestion the outer west had the largest population growth of any suburb are creating barriers to mobility, including access to critical in Australia over the past 10 years to 2016 and Doreen and services, education and employment opportunities. Truganina ranked second and third for fastest-growing suburbs. In our outer suburbs, numerous arterial roads are currently at Not only is the direction of growth expanding across outer or beyond capacity, creating significant issues of congestion, Melbourne, so too is its intensity. Plan Melbourne notes that delay and safety. In our more established outer suburbs, roads in recent years, average residential densities have increased and public transport networks are ageing, do not meet current from 15 to around 18 dwellings per hectare. Medium and standards of safety and no longer meet demand. Rural-style high-density housing is now a standard component of new roads with gravel shoulders that previously connected sparse subdivisions so that the average population density of suburbs settlements now carry thousands of commuters a day. Many such as Plumpton in the west will be the same, or higher, radial routes that connect the outer suburbs to middle and than some of Melbourne’s established inner suburbs. inner Melbourne are effectively in gridlock during morning and afternoon peak periods. In growth areas, roads that were As growth continues, so does pressure on our transport system. planned as neighbourhood and It is estimated that by 2050, Melbourne’s transport networks inter-regional connections will need to cope with 23 million trips per day, nearly double the remain lines on a map. current figure of 12.5 million. With close to half of Melbourne’s In our public transport network, Outer Melbourne needs a well-funded, multi-year investment metropolitan railway lines play a program to meet these transport challenges and ensure that crucial role in our daily commutes. residents of our outer areas are well connected to employment Train travel has increased by 70 per cent in the past 10 years, and their community. and is expected to double again in the next 20 years. But the rail system is straining under prolonged growth in demand, and overcrowding is a daily issue for commuters on all lines. Railway stations that were previously the ‘end of the line’ are now well What RACV wants short of the urban-growth boundary, leaving entire communities For Melbourne to be a world-class connected city, our without efficient access to education and employment. transport networks must reach well beyond the central At stations, car parking is full before 7am, forcing commuters area. Melbourne continues to grow and the outer suburbs to start their travel day earlier and earlier just to secure a place deserve a fast, convenient and high-quality transport in the car park. system linking areas of housing and employment and also providing access to goods and services, health care, The early provision of infrastructure plays a significant role education and recreation. in the long-term success of new communities. Inadequate public transport services can impede mobility and RACV calls on the State and Federal Governments to fund accessibility and foster dependency on cars that can be an ongoing program of outer-suburban transport projects. difficult to reverse, even after public transport is provided. Our 2018 list of 142 transport infrastructure projects are The importance of public transport in new communities is listed in Table 1. These include road infrastructure projects well understood and all growth-areas are designed for buses within each of the 14 local council areas to address missing to be within safe walking distance of peoples’ homes.