Banyule Municipal Economic Information Base
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ECONOMIC INFORMATION BASE MUNICIPAL REPORT (FINAL) BANYULE CITY COUNCIL JUNE 2017 URBAN ENTERPRISE URBAN PLANNING LAND ECONOMICS TOURISM PLANNING INDUSTRY SOFTWARE 389 ST GEORGES RD NORTH FITZROY 3068 VIC | PH: (03) 9482 3888 | WWW.URBANENTERPRISE.COM.AU AUTHORS Paul Shipp Chris Funtera Brett Hannah URBAN ENTERPRISE URBAN PLANNING LAND ECONOMICS TOURISM PLANNING INDUSTRY SOFTWARE 389 ST GEORGES RD, FITZROY NORTH, VIC 3068| PH: (03) 9482 3888 www.urbanenterprise.com.au © Copyright, Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd, 2017 This work is copyright. Apart from any uses permitted under Copyright Act 1963, no part may be reproduced without written permission of Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd. FILENAME: Banyule Municipal Economic Information_June17_Final.docx VERSION: 2 DISCLAIMER Neither Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. nor any member or employee of Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. takes responsibility in any way whatsoever to any person or organisation (other than that for which this report has been prepared) in respect of the information set out in this report, including any errors or omissions therein. In the course of our preparation of this report, projections have been prepared on the basis of assumptions and methodology which have been described in the report. It is possible that some of the assumptions underlying the projections may change. Nevertheless, the professional judgement of the members and employees of Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. have been applied in making these assumptions, such that they constitute an understandable basis for estimates and projections. Beyond this, to the extent that the assumptions do not materialise, the estimates and projections of achievable results may vary. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1. INTRODUCTION 12 1.1. ENGAGEMENT AND SCOPE 12 1.2. STUDY AREA AND ACTIVITY CENTRE LOCATIONS 13 PART A. ECONOMIC AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT 15 2. POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT 16 2.1. INTRODUCTION 16 2.2. RELEVANT STATE AND METROPOLITAN STRATEGY 16 2.3. REGIONAL ECONOMIC ROLE AND OPPORTUNITIES 21 2.4. BANYULE ECONOMIC AND PLANNING CONTEXT 21 2.5. MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS 25 2.6. KEY FINDINGS 26 3. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT 28 3.1. INTRODUCTION 28 3.2. MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 28 3.3. KEY MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 29 3.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 36 4. RETAIL AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT 37 4.1. INTRODUCTION 37 4.2. ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY 37 4.3. ACTIVITY CENTRE FLOORSPACE AND EMPLOYMENT 40 4.4. RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY 44 4.5. RETAIL DEMAND TRENDS 45 4.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 47 5. HOUSING IN ACTIVITY CENTRES 48 5.1. INTRODUCTION 48 5.2. METROPOLITAN POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS 48 5.3. BANYULE POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING PROFILE 49 5.4. RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY 53 5.5. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 54 5.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 58 PART B. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL 60 6. POPULATION AND DWELLING DEMAND 61 6.1. INTRODUCTION 61 6.2. EXISTING DWELLING AND POPULATION FORECASTS 61 6.3. GROWTH SCENARIOS 62 6.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY CENTRES 63 BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 3 CITY OF BANYULE 7. MUNICIPAL FLOORSPACE DEMAND 64 7.1. INTRODUCTION 64 7.2. POTENTIAL MUNICIPAL EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 64 7.3. TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY 65 7.4. RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND 67 7.5. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 68 8. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE 70 8.1. INTRODUCTION 70 8.2. SOCIAL INFRASTURCUTRE PROVISION BENCHMARKS 70 8.3. PROJECTED SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS 70 8.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 73 APPENDIX A DATA AREA MAPS 74 APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF 2013 PLANNING ZONE REFORMS 77 APPENDIX C REVIEW OF LOCAL AREA STRUCTURE PLANS 79 APPENDIX D FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY AND ACTIVITY CENTRE 82 APPENDIX E SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AUDIT 83 FIGURES FIGURE 1 LOCATION OF BANYULE AND IDENTIFIED ACTIVITY CENTRES 14 FIGURE 2 RESIDENTIAL AREA S FRAMEWORK MAP 20 FIGURE 3 BANYULE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN 24 FIGURE 4 LOCATION OF THE “MISSING LINK”, NORTH-EAST LINK 25 FIGURE 5 CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 – 2014/15 34 FIGURE 6 ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE 38 FIGURE 7 VALUE OF COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS APPROVED, BANYULE, 2012-2016 44 FIGURE 8 LOCATION OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY IN BANYULE, 2012 - 2016 44 FIGURE 9 EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA1, BANYULE & SURROUNDS, 2014 46 FIGURE 10 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION TRENDS, BANYULE, 2005 - 2036 49 FIGURE 11 INCREASE IN MEDIAN PROPERTY VALUES, HOUSE AND UNIT, BANYULE VS METRO MELBOURNE, 2005 - 2015 52 FIGURE 12 MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE, BANYULE SUBURBS, 2015 52 FIGURE 13 LOCATION OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS 2011-2016 55 FIGURE 14 NUMBER OF DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 56 FIGURE 15 PROPORTION OF DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, 2011-2016 58 FIGURE 16 FORECAST ID PROJECTED DWELLING DEVELOPMENT 2012-2036 61 FIGURE 17 NUMBER OF DWELLINGS APPROVED PER ANNUM, COMPARABLE INNER AND MIDDLE RING MUNICIPALITIES, 2011/12 - 2016/17 63 FIGURE 18 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE, 2000/01 – 2014/15 64 FIGURE 19 BANYULE CITY COUNCIL BOUNDARY, LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS, 2011 74 FIGURE 20 GREATER MELBOURNE BOUNDARY, GREATER CAPITAL CITY STATISTICAL AREAS, 2011 74 FIGURE 21 MELBOURNE NORTH (HIGHLIGHTING BANYULE), NORTH LINK REPORT, 2015 75 FIGURE 22 MELBOURNE NORTH EAST SA4 76 URBAN ENTERPRISE 4 JUN - 17 TABLES TABLE 1 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2036 10 TABLE 2 BANYULE ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY 17 TABLE 3 RESIDENTIAL AREAS FRAMEWORK 19 TABLE 4 ECONOMIC PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE 29 TABLE 5 LOCATION OF WORK, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011 30 TABLE 6 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011 30 TABLE 7 NUMBER OF REGISTERED BUSINESSES BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2012 AND 2015 31 TABLE 8 WORKPLACE PROFILE, BANYULE (2011) 32 TABLE 9 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 AND 2014/15 33 TABLE 10 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY, NOV 2015 – NOV 2020, MELBOURNE NORTH EAST REGION 35 TABLE 11 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE 39 TABLE 12 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE SUPPLY, BANYULE, 2016 41 TABLE 13 BANYULE SUPERMARKETS 41 TABLE 14 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE’S SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES (2011) 42 TABLE 15 ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA2, BANYULE, 2014 45 TABLE 16 SUMMARY OF RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROJECTION, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036 46 TABLE 17 HISTORIC AND FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH, GREATER MELBOURNE (GCCSA) 48 TABLE 18 BUILDING APPROVALS, GREATER MELBOURNE, JUNE 2007 – JUNE 2016 48 TABLE 19 POPULATION GROWTH RATES, BANYULE (C) 49 TABLE 20 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE, BANYULE VS GREATER MELBOURNE 50 TABLE 21 HOUSING PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE 51 TABLE 22 NUMBER OF VACANT LOTS SOLD, BANYULE (C), 1985 - 2015 53 TABLE 23 MAJOR REDEVELOPMENT SITES WITHIN SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES IN BANYULE, UDP, 2015 53 TABLE 24 ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY YEAR, BANYULE, JAN 2011 – SEPTEMBER 2016 54 TABLE 25 PERMITS FOR ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY ACTIVITY CENTRE, 2011 – 2016 55 TABLE 26 DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 56 TABLE 27 ABS DWELLING APPROVALS BY SA2, BANYULE, JULY 2011 – JULY 2016 57 TABLE 28 DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’ DWELLINGS, BANYULE AND SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES, JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 57 TABLE 29 BANYULE DWELLING FORECASTS TO 2036 (FORECAST ID) 61 TABLE 30 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2036 62 TABLE 31 POTENTIAL SCALE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BASED ON HISTORICAL RATE OF GROWTH, BANYULE, 2015-2036 64 TABLE 32 POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ASSUMING CONSTANT JOBS PER RESIDENT RATIO, BANYULE, 2015-2036 65 TABLE 33 TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIES REQUIRING RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE 65 TABLE 34 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2015-2036 67 TABLE 35 RETAIL FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036 68 TABLE 36 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE BENCHMARKS 70 TABLE 37 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION ANALYSIS, 2016 - 2036 72 TABLE 38 SA2 BOUNDARIES, BANYULE 2011 75 TABLE 39 CHANGES TO COMMERCIAL 1 ZONE 77 BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 5 CITY OF BANYULE TABLE 40 COMMERCIAL 2 ZONE CHANGES 78 TABLE 41 FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY FOR EACH ACTIVITY CENTRE, BANYULE 82 URBAN ENTERPRISE 6 JUN - 17 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Urban Enterprise has been engaged by Banyule City Council (Council) to assist in the preparation of an Economic Information base, including a Municipal Background Report, and a more separate, more detailed analysis of Banyule’s six largest activity centres of Greensborough, Heidelberg, Heidelberg West, Ivanhoe, Watsonia and Rosanna. The purpose of this Background Report is to assess the main trends impacting development and investment at the municipal level over the planning period of 2016 – 2036 (20 years) and the implications of these for Banyule’s activity centre network. Detailed analysis of individual activity centres has been undertaken as part of the next stage of the project. POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT Greater Melbourne has experienced a period of strong population growth in recent years, which is expected to continue over the next decade, and into the forecast period of this project (2036). However, historical growth has been unbalanced with Melbourne’s outer suburbs and inner-city precincts accommodating the vast share of growth. This has led to a number growing pains including the slow and expensive roll out of infrastructure and services to meet growing needs of outer suburb residents, and capacity issues for inner city infrastructure. Therefore, metropolitan and state policy including the recently released Plan Melbourne, are increasingly focusing on Melbourne’s established urban areas and middle ring suburbs to accommodate a higher proportion of future growth. Due to the Banyule’s strategic location as an established area with existing public transport infrastructure, the municipality is likely to be expected to accommodate a larger share Melbourne’s population growth into the future, particularly within and near activity centres and neighbourhood centres. The reformed residential zones (2014) provide Council greater opportunity to define its hierarchy of centres and the preferred location for housing growth and renewal.