Banyule Municipal Economic Information Base

ECONOMIC INFORMATION BASE MUNICIPAL REPORT (FINAL)

BANYULE CITY COUNCIL

JUNE 2017

URBAN ENTERPRISE URBAN PLANNING LAND ECONOMICS TOURISM PLANNING INDUSTRY SOFTWARE 389 ST GEORGES RD NORTH FITZROY 3068 VIC | PH: (03) 9482 3888 | WWW.URBANENTERPRISE.COM.AU

AUTHORS

Paul Shipp Chris Funtera Brett Hannah

URBAN ENTERPRISE URBAN PLANNING LAND ECONOMICS TOURISM PLANNING INDUSTRY SOFTWARE

389 ST GEORGES RD, FITZROY NORTH, VIC 3068| PH: (03) 9482 3888 www.urbanenterprise.com.au

This work is copyright. Apart from any uses permitted under Copyright Act 1963, no part may be reproduced without written permission of Urban Enterprise Pty Ltd.

FILENAME: Banyule Municipal Economic Information_June17_Final.docx

VERSION: 2

DISCLAIMER Neither Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. nor any member or employee of Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. takes responsibility in any way whatsoever to any person or organisation (other than that for which this report has been prepared) in respect of the information set out in this report, including any errors or omissions therein. In the course of our preparation of this report, projections have been prepared on the basis of assumptions and methodology which have been described in the report. It is possible that some of the assumptions underlying the projections may change. Nevertheless, the professional judgement of the members and employees of Urban Enterprise Pty. Ltd. have been applied in making these assumptions, such that they constitute an understandable basis for estimates and projections. Beyond this, to the extent that the assumptions do not materialise, the estimates and projections of achievable results may vary.

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1. INTRODUCTION 12 1.1. ENGAGEMENT AND SCOPE 12 1.2. STUDY AREA AND ACTIVITY CENTRE LOCATIONS 13 PART A. ECONOMIC AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT 15 2. POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT 16 2.1. INTRODUCTION 16 2.2. RELEVANT STATE AND METROPOLITAN STRATEGY 16 2.3. REGIONAL ECONOMIC ROLE AND OPPORTUNITIES 21 2.4. BANYULE ECONOMIC AND PLANNING CONTEXT 21 2.5. MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS 25 2.6. KEY FINDINGS 26 3. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT 28 3.1. INTRODUCTION 28 3.2. MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 28 3.3. KEY MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS 29 3.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 36 4. RETAIL AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT 37 4.1. INTRODUCTION 37 4.2. ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY 37 4.3. ACTIVITY CENTRE FLOORSPACE AND EMPLOYMENT 40 4.4. RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY 44 4.5. RETAIL DEMAND TRENDS 45 4.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 47 5. HOUSING IN ACTIVITY CENTRES 48 5.1. INTRODUCTION 48 5.2. METROPOLITAN POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS 48 5.3. BANYULE POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING PROFILE 49 5.4. RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY 53 5.5. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY 54 5.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 58 PART B. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL 60 6. POPULATION AND DWELLING DEMAND 61 6.1. INTRODUCTION 61 6.2. EXISTING DWELLING AND POPULATION FORECASTS 61 6.3. GROWTH SCENARIOS 62 6.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY CENTRES 63

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 3 CITY OF BANYULE

7. MUNICIPAL FLOORSPACE DEMAND 64 7.1. INTRODUCTION 64 7.2. POTENTIAL MUNICIPAL EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES 64 7.3. TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY 65 7.4. RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND 67 7.5. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 68 8. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE 70 8.1. INTRODUCTION 70 8.2. SOCIAL INFRASTURCUTRE PROVISION BENCHMARKS 70 8.3. PROJECTED SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS 70 8.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS 73 APPENDIX A DATA AREA MAPS 74 APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF 2013 PLANNING ZONE REFORMS 77 APPENDIX C REVIEW OF LOCAL AREA STRUCTURE PLANS 79 APPENDIX D FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY AND ACTIVITY CENTRE 82 APPENDIX E SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AUDIT 83

FIGURES

FIGURE 1 LOCATION OF BANYULE AND IDENTIFIED ACTIVITY CENTRES 14 FIGURE 2 RESIDENTIAL AREA S FRAMEWORK MAP 20 FIGURE 3 BANYULE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN 24 FIGURE 4 LOCATION OF THE “MISSING LINK”, NORTH-EAST LINK 25 FIGURE 5 CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 – 2014/15 34 FIGURE 6 ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE 38 FIGURE 7 VALUE OF COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS APPROVED, BANYULE, 2012-2016 44 FIGURE 8 LOCATION OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY IN BANYULE, 2012 - 2016 44 FIGURE 9 EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA1, BANYULE & SURROUNDS, 2014 46 FIGURE 10 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION TRENDS, BANYULE, 2005 - 2036 49 FIGURE 11 INCREASE IN MEDIAN PROPERTY VALUES, HOUSE AND UNIT, BANYULE VS METRO MELBOURNE, 2005 - 2015 52 FIGURE 12 MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE, BANYULE SUBURBS, 2015 52 FIGURE 13 LOCATION OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS 2011-2016 55 FIGURE 14 NUMBER OF DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 56 FIGURE 15 PROPORTION OF DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, 2011-2016 58 FIGURE 16 FORECAST ID PROJECTED DWELLING DEVELOPMENT 2012-2036 61 FIGURE 17 NUMBER OF DWELLINGS APPROVED PER ANNUM, COMPARABLE INNER AND MIDDLE RING MUNICIPALITIES, 2011/12 - 2016/17 63 FIGURE 18 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE, 2000/01 – 2014/15 64 FIGURE 19 BANYULE CITY COUNCIL BOUNDARY, LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS, 2011 74 FIGURE 20 GREATER MELBOURNE BOUNDARY, GREATER CAPITAL CITY STATISTICAL AREAS, 2011 74 FIGURE 21 MELBOURNE NORTH (HIGHLIGHTING BANYULE), NORTH LINK REPORT, 2015 75 FIGURE 22 MELBOURNE NORTH EAST SA4 76

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TABLES

TABLE 1 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2036 10 TABLE 2 BANYULE ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY 17 TABLE 3 RESIDENTIAL AREAS FRAMEWORK 19 TABLE 4 ECONOMIC PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE 29 TABLE 5 LOCATION OF WORK, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011 30 TABLE 6 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011 30 TABLE 7 NUMBER OF REGISTERED BUSINESSES BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2012 AND 2015 31 TABLE 8 WORKPLACE PROFILE, BANYULE (2011) 32 TABLE 9 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 AND 2014/15 33 TABLE 10 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY, NOV 2015 – NOV 2020, MELBOURNE NORTH EAST REGION 35 TABLE 11 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE 39 TABLE 12 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE SUPPLY, BANYULE, 2016 41 TABLE 13 BANYULE SUPERMARKETS 41 TABLE 14 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE’S SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES (2011) 42 TABLE 15 ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA2, BANYULE, 2014 45 TABLE 16 SUMMARY OF RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROJECTION, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036 46 TABLE 17 HISTORIC AND FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH, GREATER MELBOURNE (GCCSA) 48 TABLE 18 BUILDING APPROVALS, GREATER MELBOURNE, JUNE 2007 – JUNE 2016 48 TABLE 19 POPULATION GROWTH RATES, BANYULE (C) 49 TABLE 20 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE, BANYULE VS GREATER MELBOURNE 50 TABLE 21 HOUSING PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE 51 TABLE 22 NUMBER OF VACANT LOTS SOLD, BANYULE (C), 1985 - 2015 53 TABLE 23 MAJOR REDEVELOPMENT SITES WITHIN SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES IN BANYULE, UDP, 2015 53 TABLE 24 ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY YEAR, BANYULE, JAN 2011 – SEPTEMBER 2016 54 TABLE 25 PERMITS FOR ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY ACTIVITY CENTRE, 2011 – 2016 55 TABLE 26 DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 56 TABLE 27 ABS DWELLING APPROVALS BY SA2, BANYULE, JULY 2011 – JULY 2016 57 TABLE 28 DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’ DWELLINGS, BANYULE AND SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES, JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016 57 TABLE 29 BANYULE DWELLING FORECASTS TO 2036 (FORECAST ID) 61 TABLE 30 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2036 62 TABLE 31 POTENTIAL SCALE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BASED ON HISTORICAL RATE OF GROWTH, BANYULE, 2015-2036 64 TABLE 32 POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ASSUMING CONSTANT JOBS PER RESIDENT RATIO, BANYULE, 2015-2036 65 TABLE 33 TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIES REQUIRING RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE 65 TABLE 34 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2015-2036 67 TABLE 35 RETAIL FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036 68 TABLE 36 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE BENCHMARKS 70 TABLE 37 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION ANALYSIS, 2016 - 2036 72 TABLE 38 SA2 BOUNDARIES, BANYULE 2011 75 TABLE 39 CHANGES TO COMMERCIAL 1 ZONE 77

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 5 CITY OF BANYULE

TABLE 40 COMMERCIAL 2 ZONE CHANGES 78 TABLE 41 FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY FOR EACH ACTIVITY CENTRE, BANYULE 82

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Urban Enterprise has been engaged by Banyule City Council (Council) to assist in the preparation of an Economic Information base, including a Municipal Background Report, and a more separate, more detailed analysis of Banyule’s six largest activity centres of Greensborough, Heidelberg, Heidelberg West, Ivanhoe, Watsonia and Rosanna. The purpose of this Background Report is to assess the main trends impacting development and investment at the municipal level over the planning period of 2016 – 2036 (20 years) and the implications of these for Banyule’s activity centre network. Detailed analysis of individual activity centres has been undertaken as part of the next stage of the project.

POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT

Greater Melbourne has experienced a period of strong population growth in recent years, which is expected to continue over the next decade, and into the forecast period of this project (2036). However, historical growth has been unbalanced with Melbourne’s outer suburbs and inner-city precincts accommodating the vast share of growth. This has led to a number growing pains including the slow and expensive roll out of infrastructure and services to meet growing needs of outer suburb residents, and capacity issues for inner city infrastructure. Therefore, metropolitan and state policy including the recently released Plan Melbourne, are increasingly focusing on Melbourne’s established urban areas and middle ring suburbs to accommodate a higher proportion of future growth. Due to the Banyule’s strategic location as an established area with existing public transport infrastructure, the municipality is likely to be expected to accommodate a larger share Melbourne’s population growth into the future, particularly within and near activity centres and neighbourhood centres. The reformed residential zones (2014) provide Council greater opportunity to define its hierarchy of centres and the preferred location for housing growth and renewal. Plan Melbourne directs major employment growth to the Latrobe National Employment and Innovation Cluster, particularly the Heidelberg Health Precinct, the activity centres of Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Greensborough, and urban renewal opportunities near the Rosanna station. The future role and land use mix within Neighbourhood Centres in Banyule will also be important given the dispersed nature of activity centres and community services across the municipality and support for 20-minute Neighbourhoods in Plan Melbourne Refresh. In line with wider macro-economic trends, regional and state policy supports growth in key industries which are matched with the existing economic strengths of Banyule and its strategic positioning including health, aged care, retail, hospitality and professional services. Banyule’s health sector is by far the largest employing industry in the municipality, and there is strong policy support to grow this sector further and leverage opportunities in education and research. A number of significant infrastructure investments have been confirmed (or within the planning phase) which will improve transport connectivity, access to services and increase the desirability of Banyule for residential development. This includes the upgrading of public transport capacity, arterial road connections, and improved health services.

ECONOMIC CONTEXT

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 7 CITY OF BANYULE

institutions (Austin Health) as well as in allied health services and wellbeing businesses. Growth in the health sector will have flow-on impacts to other sectors in the local economy which service major institutions and workers, such as retail, hospitality and business services. As shown by the agglomeration of medical, commercial office, retail and residential development in the Heidelberg MAC; • Education and Training is an existing strength of Banyule, with a number of schools and private institutions located in the municipality. Private schools are mainly concentrated in Ivanhoe and Heidelberg which are currently experiencing demand pressures. There has been some recent public school closures in Heidelberg Heights, Heidelberg West, and Bellfield, to allow the construction of the Charles Latrobe (a ‘super-school’) at Latrobe University. Employment is expected to grow in this sector due to population growth and increased government investment. Similar to the health sector, growth in the education sector will have flow on impacts on businesses located in Activity Centres which service students and staff. • Retail Trade has experienced limited growth in Banyule recent years. However, at the regional level, employment growth in this sector is anticipated to be driven by population growth. Further detailed discussion on the retail sector is provided in Section 4. • Accommodation and Food Services has grown strongly in recent years driven by population growth, and increased consumer spending on hospitality. This is reflected in the changing business mix of some of Banyule’s activity centres, with a growing number of cafes and restaurants currently operating. • The professional and business services sector currently has a relatively low employment and business presence in Banyule. There is a limited number of larger professional companies and large floor plate office users. The sector is primarily composed of small businesses which are located in shopfront tenancies in Activity Centres, or home-based businesses. State policy and regional employment projections expect continued employment growth as Victoria continues to transition to a more service-based economy. Although the inner-city is expected to continue to absorb the majority of growth, there is strong policy support to direct growth middle-ring suburbs which have good public transport connections and access to a professional workforce such as Banyule.

CENTRE HIERARCHY AND ROLES

There are no higher order ‘Metropolitan Activity Centres’ identified within Banyule. Greensborough is the only activity centre in Banyule which includes a Discount Department Store, thereby serving a broader sub-regional catchment. Ivanhoe and Heidelberg are large neighbourhood centres which serve both neighbourhood and specialised roles, while Rosanna, Watsonia and Heidelberg West are Neighbourhood Centres which primarily serve local catchments with convenience retail needs. The Activity Centre hierarchy and retail role of Banyule centres is strongly influenced by the accessibility of residents to higher order regional centres in neighbouring municipalities, particularly Northland Shopping Centre (and neighbouring bulky goods precinct), and Doncaster Hill. The western and north-western portion of Banyule has a demographic profile and proximity which is more aligned with Northland, and the southern and eastern portions of Banyule have a demographic profile that is similar to Melbourne’s eastern suburbs and accessibility to Doncaster Hill. These centres have grown strongly in recent years are expected to continue to provide Banyule residents with higher order retail needs throughout the planning period for this study. Banyule’s six largest activity centres combine to constitute a major driver of the Banyule economy. Activity Centres are the location for 59% of Banyule’s employment, 70% of retail floorspace and 66% of commercial floorspace. Two-thirds of supermarket floorspace is located within the activity centres of Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Greensborough. Banyule has a lower provision of supermarket floorspace than the metropolitan Melbourne average, and some parts of the municipality are relatively poorly served by modern full -line supermarkets. The value of non-residential building activity in Banyule has increased significantly over the past 5 years, underpinned by a steady increase in the value of retail and wholesale trade building construction and the completion of major office development in Greensborough.

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Per capita retail expenditure is increasing over time, however online sales are attracting a growing share, leading to changes in the way many stores are positioned. Retail expenditure per person varies significantly across Banyule, with significantly higher expenditure levels in the southern suburbs of Ivanhoe and Ivanhoe East. Banyule’s activity centres are important retail and employment locations and will need to accommodate ongoing growth to meet population growth and non-residential building activity, both of which have increased strongly over recent years. There is the opportunity to improve the overall distribution and quality of retail floorspace, in particular through the attraction of full-line supermarkets in existing activity centres and new retail floorspace as part of new mixed-use developments. It is noted that many of Banyule’s activity centres are located adjacent to train stations and contain successful local strip shopping comprising a range of independent retailers. There is a relatively low reliance on large shopping centres, with the exception of Greensborough. This profile presents the opportunity for strips to evolve and potentially specialise in a particular retail and/or hospitality role (for example, Ivanhoe has attracted a strong café presence in recent years), much in the same way that inner Melbourne strips have specialised such as Brunswick Street and Lygon Street. This degree of specialisation is not generally possible within shopping centres. There is also a threat, however, that the significant amount of retail expenditure - and therefore pedestrian traffic – that is drawn to larger retailers such as supermarkets, big-box stores and department stores could result in challenges to smaller activity centres with smaller and ageing anchors, unless new /upgraded retail anchors are accommodated over the planning period, especially in locations expected to experience significant population growth.

RESIDENTIAL TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY CENTRES

Melbourne is currently experiencing a period of significant population growth and dwelling construction activity. Historically, growth has not been distributed evenly across the city, with the majority of growth concentrated in outer suburban greenfield sites and high density development within the inner-city. The fundamentals underpinning Melbourne’s population growth (primarily immigration) are expected to continue in the foreseeable future, with the population projected to grow to 6.5 million by 2036. Banyule has experienced steady population growth in the past decade, primarily through urban consolidation within existing residential areas. Historically, growth rates have been lower than other inner and middle ring municipalities. Population forecasts (VIF2016 & Forecast ID) project an increase in the order of 900 new residents per annum over the next 15 to 20 years at a growth rate of 0.75% - 0.81% per annum, consistent with growth over the past 10 years. However, over the past two years, there has been a significant surge in the volume of dwelling approvals. There has been a clear split between the growth profile of the southern suburbs of Banyule (i.e. Ivanhoe, Heidelberg, Heidelberg West) and the northern suburbs. The southern suburbs are increasingly positioned as inner-middle ring suburbs and have experienced a significant surge in the volume of dwellings approved for construction, particularly high and medium density apartment development. The positioning of these areas has changed as part of the outward growing inner-city housing densification. Demand for medium and high density housing in Banyule is expected to continue, underpinned by a range of factors including decreasing household size, significant growth in older age cohorts likely to seek smaller dwellings, and high median prices for housing alternatives in most of Banyule (i.e. separate houses). A number of local factors position Banyule as an attractive location for medium and high density residential dwellings, including: • Access to excellent health services (particularly in the south of Banyule); • Access to public transport and connectivity to the CBD; and • High amenity and community services; and • Distinct neighbourhoods with local character and tree-lined streets – particularly in established suburbs. The strong supply of new apartments to the market is expected to continue over the short term, with the UDP and Council staff identifying a large number of projects in the planning phase. If dwelling construction continues at or near current volumes, population projections for Banyule are likely to be significantly exceeded, at least in the short to medium term (particularly in Banyule’s southern suburbs). Banyule’s Major Activity Centres, which are supported with railway stations, are expected to experience strong demand for residential housing in the form of medium and high density dwellings (particularly Ivanhoe and Heidelberg). This will lead to strong competition for development sites with other land uses, and the need for

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 9 CITY OF BANYULE additional retail, commercial and community services to be provided within and near these centres. As development sites become scarcer in Ivanhoe and Heidelberg, opportunities are likely to arise within and near Neighbourhood Centres such as Rosanna, Watsonia, and Heidelberg West. Sensitive environments and heritage values will limit the potential for change in other centres such as Macleod and Ivanhoe East.

PROJECTED DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS, RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE

The population and dwelling outcomes of the two alternative growth scenarios are shown in Table 1, alongside projections prepared by Forecast ID. Based on these scenarios, Banyule would potentially experience growth of up to 11,000 – 16,000 additional dwellings and 25,000 – 36,000 additional residents by 2036. It is noted that there are potential scenarios to inform long term strategic planning given that current development rates are higher than recent projections available to Council, rather than definitive estimates of likely growth.

TABLE 1 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2016 - 2036

Annual Average Additional Dwellings Growth 2016- Population Growth 2016- Scenario Dwellings per annum 2036 2036 Forecast ID +469 +9,382 +19,894 Base Growth Scenario +575 +11,504 +25,081 Higher Growth Scenario +800 +16,000 +35,973

*Population forecasts have been developed using the Forecast ID assumptions including Dwelling Occupancy Rate 2036: 96.52%, Average Household Size: 2.51, Population in non-private dwellings 2036: 2,789 Source: Urban Enterprise 2017, Forecast ID, 2015. Higher dwelling and population growth rates across Banyule would only be achieved through the ongoing development of new dwellings within and near activity centres. This is likely to lead to strong competition for sites within activity centres, along with opportunities for new retail and commercial floorspace at lower levels of new developments. Greater concentration of new residents in activity centres will lead to demand for local retail and community services within those centres, and well as significant pressure on civil and social infrastructure. Demand increases are likely to lead to improvements in retail performance of existing shops and some opportunities for new anchor retailers such as supermarkets. Based on recent employment growth and population projections, it is estimated that employment in Banyule over the next 20 years is likely to increase by at least 8,000 jobs, and up to 15,000 jobs. The ultimate rate of growth will depend on a range of factors, including availability of appropriate scale and type of retail, commercial and industrial land and floorspace. Growth in the health sector is considered the major driver for future floorspace growth and the level of growth will be determined primarily by government funding and policy decision-making. Activity centres will play an important role in accommodating this growth, given that more than half of Banyule’s employment is currently based in the six major activity centres. Although employment growth in industries requiring land in activity centres has been mixed in recent years, , population growth – especially that driven by apartment development within and adjacent to existing activity centres – is expected to underpin demand for retail and commercial floorspace growth across the municipality. Estimates of floorspace requirements include: • Retail and accommodation floorspace: 49,000sqm to 72,000sqm (base population scenario); and • Commercial floorspace: 69,000 sqm (excluding health care). • Health floorspace: 140,000 to 200,0000 sqm. Although not all of the floorspace requirements will need to be met within activity centres, currently 70% of retail floorspace and 66% of commercial floorspace is located within the boundaries of the six largest activity centres in Banyule, demonstrating that there is likely to be significant pressure over the next 20 years to accommodate this scale of floorspace demand within existing centres.

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SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Population growth over the next 20 years will generate significant demand increases for social infrastructure. Although the Banyule population is current well serviced for some facility types, others will require a significant increase in provision to maintain current standards and/or to meet benchmarks for provision, particularly maternal and child health centres, child care centres and community meeting rooms. The optimal location for many social infrastructure facility types is within an activity centre – it is important that the Activity Centres Strategy considers the needs for a range of social infrastructure types in public and private buildings as part of the response to the range of land use demand within the centres. The significant investment in the Greensborough Watermarc development is an example of an integrated service facility which provides a significant boost to the economic role and activation of the centre. The Ivanhoe Civic Precinct may provide a similar opportunity to leverage Council’s landholdings.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 11 CITY OF BANYULE

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. ENGAGEMENT AND SCOPE

Urban Enterprise was engaged by Banyule City Council (Council) to prepare an Economic Information Base, which will inform the development of an Activity Centre Strategy. The scope of the project includes: • A municipal economic overview identifying trends that are and will be driving change and investment in Banyule’s activity centres; • Review of the housing market and housing investment in and around the key activity centres; and • Information and analysis to inform plans for the six largest centres - Ivanhoe, Heidelberg, Heidelberg West, Rosanna, Watsonia and Greensborough, including a supply and demand analysis of retail and commercial floorspace, forecast of floorspace requirements over the period to 2036; and assessment of gaps in existing offering and potential for further investment.

MUNICIPAL BACKGROUND REPORT

The purpose of this Municipal Background Report is to assess the main trends impacting development and investment at the municipal level for the next 20 years and the implications for Banyule’s activity centre network. This includes: • Analysis of the existing strategic and policy context at the municipal, regional, and state level; • Analysis of the Activity Centre trends and development; • Detailed review of economic trends and infrastructure investment around Banyule; and • Development projections for housing, employment, retail and commercial development at the municipal level. The report is designed to guide more detailed analysis of the role of each activity centre through subsequent analysis to inform preparation of an Activity Centre Strategy. This Background Report is presented in two sections: • Part A Economic and Activity Centre Context: Detailed analysis of economic trends and indicators impacting Banyule which will influence future development of activity centres; and • Part B Future Development Potential: Forecast future demand including population, employment, retail and commercial floorspace at the municipal level.

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1.2. STUDY AREA AND ACTIVITY CENTRE LOCATIONS

The study area for this project is the City of Banyule, which is located between 7km and 21km north-east of Melbourne’s CBD. The boundaries of the municipality are shown in Figure 1. Greensborough is identified in the Planning Scheme as the Principal Activity Centre for the region, with other activity centres including Ivanhoe, Heidelberg, Rosanna, Heidelberg West and Watsonia. Most centres are located on the Hurstbridge Railway Line which traverses the municipality, stopping at nine stations.

STRATEGIC LOCATION

Banyule is a strategically positioned to accommodate further growth, particularly, its larger activity centres: • Located along the Hurstbridge Rail Line which provides Zone 1 access to the Melbourne CBD; • Banyule’ southern border runs along the Yarra River valley, where river crossings are a major influencer, and has a bearing on the municipality’s development potential. The limited number of river crossings allows for pockets of low-density residential development, and therefore growth is directed to larger activity centres; • There are a number of strategic transport routes including Heidelberg and Upper Heidelberg Road, a key north- south arterial, and Bell Street, a key east-west arterial which makes Banyule accessible to Melbourne’s eastern suburbs (particularly Heidelberg). The Metropolitan Ring Road defines the northern border of Banyule and provides accessibility to western Melbourne, and with the planned North East Link, will have a future connection to Eastlink. This is expected to increase the transport connectivity of the northern suburbs of Banyule, and assist in relieving congestion in Banyule’s southern suburbs (removal of through-traffic); and • Banyule is not directly linked with the northern growth corridor on the Hurstbridge Railway Line, therefore future growth potential is geared towards larger activity centres.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 13 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 1 LOCATION OF BANYULE AND IDENTIFIED ACTIVITY CENTRES

Source: Google Maps, 2011

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PART A. ECONOMIC AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 15 CITY OF BANYULE

2. POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT

2.1. INTRODUCTION

This section provides a summary of key background literature to understand current and historic policy and strategic context for the activity centres. A number of documents relate to the Melbourne North Region, which includes the municipalities of Yarra, Banyule, Darebin, Moreland, Nillumbik, Whittlesea, Hume and Mitchell. The boundaries of this region are shown in Appendix A.

2.2. RELEVANT STATE AND METROPOLITAN STRATEGY

2.2.1. PLAN MELBOURNE 2017

The State Government recently released a new version of Plan Melbourne, the overarching planning strategy to guide and shape the future shape of the city and state over the next 35 years. It follows on from the 2014 Plan Melbourne which was released by the previous State Government. The plan highlights a number of major sub-regions which make up the metropolitan region, including current and future major activity centres, employment clusters, as well as future road and rail linkages. Banyule is part of the Northern sub-region. Plan Melbourne includes projections for employment which suggest long-term employment growth within the ‘knowledge’ sector and a proportional decline in construction and manufacturing employment. One of the key priorities in the new Plan is strengthening the focus on housing affordability and increasing the supply of housing in established urban areas which are closer to jobs, services, and existing transport infrastructure. The Plan sets a target of at least 65% of new housing directed to established areas, and no more than 35% to growth areas. Urban consolidation applies directly to Banyule with the need to deliver diverse, affordable housing close to jobs in the activity centres. There is little to no greenfield land in Banyule, meaning that urban consolidation will be the primary method of accommodating growth in Banyule. Due to the Banyule’s strategic location as an established area with existing public transport infrastructure, the municipality is likely to be expected to accommodate a larger share Melbourne’s population growth into the future, particularly within and near activity centres and neighbourhood centres. The Plan provides a slightly altered activity centre hierarchy, with the largest centres being Metropolitan Activity Centres, supported by a network of Major and Neighbourhood Activity Centres of varying size, role and function. Table 2 shows how the new hierarchy applies to Banyule’s centres. A key strategic principle of Plan Melbourne is the encouragement of 20-minute neighbourhoods within which “people have safe and convenient access to the goods and services they need for daily life within 20 minutes of where they live, travelling by foot, bicycle or public transport. This includes a variety of housing choices, shops and commercial services, schools, parks and recreation opportunities and good walking and bicycle infrastructure.” This will be achieved through initiatives including: • Supporting a network of vibrant neighbourhood centres by improving access to cafes, dining and shopping; creating village shopping strips that promote small business; and accommodating more community-based services, shoptop housing, and open space; and • Supporting Local Governments to plan and manage their neighbourhoods by undertaking projects that meet the principles of: improving walkability, cycling and safety to provide healthier communities; improving housing choice and diversity; increasing the usability of, and access to, safe open space; improving local economic opportunities; encouraging adequate local services and infrastructure; and ensuring access to public transport. The future role and land use mix within Neighbourhood Centres in Banyule will be particularly important given the dispersed nature of activity centres and community services across the municipality.

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TABLE 2 BANYULE ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY

Plan Melbourne Description Banyule’s Centres Classification

Higher-order centres with diverse employment options, Metropolitan Activity services and housing stock, supported by good transport None within Banyule. Centre connections. Nine existing and two future centres are identified in Plan Melbourne Refresh.

Suburban centres that provide access to a wide range of goods and services. They have different attributes and Major Activity Centre Heidelberg, Ivanhoe, provide different functions, with some serving larger (MAC) Greensborough subregional catchments. Plan Melbourne identifies 121 major activity centres

Watsonia, Bell Street Mall Local centres that provide access to local goods, services (Heidelberg West), Rosanna, Neighbourhood Activity and employment opportunities and serve the needs of the Bundoora, Macleod, Ivanhoe Centre (NAC) surrounding community. East, Montmorency, Lower Plenty, Diamond Village Designated concentrations of employment distinguished by National Employment a strong core of nationally significant knowledge sector Latrobe NEC, which includes and Innovation Cluster businesses and institutions that make a major contribution Heidelberg MAC and Heidelberg (NEC) to the national economy and Melbourne’s positioning in the West NAC. global economy. Source: Plan Melbourne Refresh 2017, Urban Enterprise 2017

LATROBE NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND INNOVATION CLUSTER FRAMEWORK PLAN (DRAFT)

The draft Framework Plan has been developed by the VPA, in conjunction with Councils, relevant government authorities, and key businesses and institutions. It sets out a 30-year vision to boost employment, encourage new services and businesses and improve infrastructure and transport links. The cluster includes a number of significant employment locations including: • Heidelberg MAC and Medical Precinct; • Heidelberg West industrial estate; • Northland MAC and industrial area; and • Latrobe University. The NEC boundaries also include the Heidelberg West NAC. The relevant Strategic outcomes include: • Prepare an integrated transport plan for the NEC; • Promote the opportunity for establishment of allied health, research and development and diverse housing opportunities in close proximity to the main institutions; • Plan for new activity centres within employment precincts (including one within the Northland NAC and the Heidelberg West industrial area). These new activity centres are likely to impact on the role of function of the existing Heidelberg West NAC; and • Develop a future education growth plan to support local population changes; • Prepare a Structure Plan for the Heidelberg West Industrial Precinct. Heidelberg MAC is a key part of the cluster, and the draft vision for the centre includes a revitalised train station, a vibrant public realm, and mixed use development which contribute to new housing close the jobs. Short-term actions relating to the centre include:

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 17 CITY OF BANYULE

• Prepare a masterplan for the redevelopment of Heidelberg Railway Station that captures social and economic uplift opportunities with links to hospitals (considered a priority action); • Implementation of priority public realm improvements within the Heidelberg Structure Plan; • Prepare an economic information base for floorspace projections to implement the Heidelberg Major Activity Centre and Medical Precinct Structure Plan; • Prepare and implement a masterplan for the Heidelberg Repatriation Hospital. The Framework Plan is currently in the draft phase and expected to be finalised in mid-2017.

2.2.2. INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIA 30-YEAR INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGY

Infrastructure Victoria was created in 2016 as an independent statutory authority to provide expert advice and guide decision-making on Victoria’s infrastructure priorities. The 30-Year Infrastructure Strategy sets out a pipeline of initiatives – 137 recommendations – to be delivered over the next three decades to help address Victoria’s infrastructure needs. Some of the key recommendations which are relevant to Banyule include the following: • Intensify medium density housing development in established areas of Melbourne that are already well serviced with infrastructure by amending planning schemes within 0-5 years. This should focus initially on Melbourne’s inner and middle ring eastern and southern suburbs, in particular within walkable catchments for train stations. • Intensify medium to high density housing, services and commercial development in and around employment centres by amending planning schemes within 0-5 years. Areas for consideration should include National Employment Clusters (NECs) such as Latrobe. • Construct the North-East Link within 10-15 years. As a first step, there needs to be a detailed assessment of alternative alignments. Further discussion on this is provided in Section 2.5. • Address broadband blackspots in the Heidelberg West industrial area. It is important to note that Infrastructure Victoria is independent from government, and although they are charged with providing evidence-based recommendations, decision-making ultimately lies with relevant authorities and tiers of government.

2.2.3. PLANNING ZONE REFORMS 2014

In 2013, Victoria’s zoning framework was subject to a major review and a series of new and revised planning zones were introduced in the Victorian Planning Provisions in mid-2013. A summary of the relevant changes is provided in Appendix B.

RESIDENTIAL ZONES

The reformed residential zones included three new zones, in addition to the existing Low Density Residential Zone, including the: • Residential Growth Zone; • General Residential Zone; and • Neighbourhood Residential Zone. The new residential zones provide Council with a clearer definition of where housing growth is limited due to heritage and neighbourhood character by directing housing growth to areas around main roads, shopping centres and transport hubs. The new zones were implemented through amendment C100, and included in LPPF Clause 21.06 as discussed below.

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LOCAL PLANNING POLICY: CLAUSE 21.06

Strategies to implement the housing vision for Banyule are contained in Clause 21.06. which seeks to: Increase the diversity of housing types and promote new housing that meets the needs of the broader community in a manner that respects and contributes to the desired future character of residential neighbourhoods and identity of Activity Centres and Neighbourhood Centres. Strategies to achieve this objective include: • Encourage a substantial proportion of new housing to be located within or close to Activity Centres and the Principal Public Transport Network. • Encourage a range of types and sizes of housing, particularly in areas located close to public transport, services and facilities. • Encourage development to provide a wider range of household types particularly smaller sized dwellings, including those with only one bedroom. • Protect existing areas within the Low Density Residential Zone to continue to provide low density housing types. To direct housing types to the preferred location, Banyule has been divided into six residential areas which have a desired character and level of change, as outlined in the following table, and shown in Figure 2.

TABLE 3 RESIDENTIAL AREAS FRAMEWORK

Residential Area Vision Applies to areas: • Within the business core of an Activity Centre or Neighbourhood Centre. • Some residential properties along streets that immediately surround the business core of Diversity an Activity Centre or Neighbourhood Centre. They will provide for shop-top and apartment living in higher density mixed use and residential developments. These areas include strategic redevelopment sites that provide for higher density housing. Applies to areas • Within convenient walking distance to the business core of an Activity Centre or Neighbourhood Centre. • Are within convenient walking distance to the highest priority sections of the Principal Accessible Public Transport Network where higher frequency and quality of public transport services in operation. They will provide town house and other medium density living and some dispersed single dwellings. Some opportunities for higher density housing will also exist. These areas include strategic redevelopment sites that provide for medium density and a higher density housing component. These areas are typically located further away from Activity Centres and the Principal Public Transport Network, where there is less convenient pedestrian access. Incremental They will provide for well designed single dwellings and medium density dwellings. As an exception, there will be limited opportunities for higher density housing at well located, large strategic redevelopment sites only. These are located east of the Plenty River. These areas will provide for sensitively designed single Limited Incremental dwellings and some dispersed medium density dwellings. These areas typically have important heritage, environmental, or neighbourhood attributes. They will Limited support single dwellings with some limited opportunity for medium density housing. Low Density Areas within the Low Density Residential Zone (LDZ) Residential Source: Banyule Planning Scheme 2017

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FIGURE 2 RESIDENTIAL AREA S FRAMEWORK MAP

Source: Banyule Planning Scheme 2017

COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ZONES

Two Commercial zones (the Commercial 1 and Commercial 2 zones) automatically replaced the five previous business zones (Business 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 Zones). The reforms were intended to provide a higher degree of flexibility for uses within commercial areas. Not only does this enable ease of commercial development, but the Commercial 1 Zone also enables and encourages residential uses that complement the densities, scale and role of the commercial centre. There is likely to be competition from a range of land uses for land in Banyule’s activity centres, particularly within the Commercial 1 Zone. Following the zone changes in 2013, many uses do not require a permit, which is likely to lead to significant development and land use change in these areas. The prospect of increased residential development in the Commercial 1 Zone may also lead to a reduction in opportunities for retail and office development in activity centres. The balance of uses within activity centres should be closely managed by Council where possible.

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2.2.4. RESIDENTIAL ZONE REFORMS 2017

The residential zones have recently gone through another set of changes in March 2017 and implemented through Amendment VC110. The major changes include: • Increasing the mandatory maximum height for development in the Neighbourhood Residential Zone from 8 metres to 9 metres (2 storey maximum). • Increasing the discretionary height limit for development in the General Residential Zone from 9 metres to a mandatory maximum height of 11 metres (3 storey maximum). • Introducing a mandatory garden area requirement in the Neighbourhood Residential Zone and General Residential Zone to enhance the garden and open character of residential areas. • Removing the restriction on the number of dwellings that can be built on a property in the Neighbourhood Residential Zone The general impact of the changes will be to provide greater flexibility in the NRZ, so that established municipalities which have a high proportion or residential land in the NRZ can accommodate a greater share of growth, whilst also maintaining their open garden character.1

2.3. REGIONAL ECONOMIC ROLE AND OPPORTUNITIES

The following economic studies outline the economic role of the Northern region and identify opportunities that may influence the development of Banyule’s activity centres.

NORTHERN EXPOSURE, AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH GROUP & SGS ECONOMICS AND PLANNING, 2007

This document was prepared by the Australian Research Group for NORTH Link/NIETL in 2007 to assess the amount of office and commercial accommodation in the region. Prior research and industry concern suggested that there was insufficient accommodation. The region assessed in the report included seven municipalities, including the Cities of Banyule, Darebin, Hume, Moreland, Whittlesea and Yarra plus the Shire of Nillumbik. The Northern region was expected to grow by 250,000 people in the 10 – 20 year period following preparation of the report, which identified a lack of office and commercial accommodation as a key barrier to increasing employment opportunities in the region. The report found that there was unmet demand for office and commercial accommodation and that the region could support a variety of types and styles of development.

MELBOURNE NORTH’S REGIONAL DIGITAL ECONOMY STRATEGY, 2012-14

This strategy was developed in conjunction with a submission regarding the National Broadband Network in 2012 in order to have the NBN distributed to Melbourne’s North. The strategy recognises that the Digital Economy is a catalyst for innovation within the region. It is highlighted that Melbourne’s North would be one of the greatest beneficiaries of the roll-out of the National Broadband Network, which is a key enabler of the digital economy. The Strategy found that there is great opportunity for the knowledge sector to offset the decline in the manufacturing industry in Melbourne’s North, the most rapid change in the region.

2.4. BANYULE ECONOMIC AND PLANNING CONTEXT

BANYULE CITY PLAN 2013-2017

The City Plan sets out the key directions and priorities for the Council. Among a number of planning, fiscal and communication goals, a major focus is investment in infrastructure. Major projects identified in the City Plan for Year 4 (2016) include:

1 Reformed Residential Zones Information Booklet, DELWP 2017

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 21 CITY OF BANYULE

• Allocate $3.9 million into our parks, gardens, playgrounds and shared paths, including a regional play space at Anthony Beale Reserve; • Upgrade sporting grounds, facilities and pavilions, including Ivanhoe Park pavilion; • Start construction of the Ivanhoe Community Learning Hub; • Invest $8.6 million in maintaining and upgrading roads, bridges and drainage; • Complete construction of One Flintoff, Council’s new staff accommodation and community facilities in Greensborough; and • Implement the Banyule Integrated Transport Plan 2015/2035.

BANYULE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2015 – 2020

The Economic Development Plan was developed in 2015 and provides demographic and economic projections to 2031. This helps direct and communicate the council’s economic development plans over the period of 2015 to 2020. The heart of economic development in Banyule focuses on the Activity Centres, which must provide a focal point for businesses and contribute to the community wellbeing. The plan also recognises not only the importance of low-cost training for jobs and businesses, but also the increasing potential for home-based businesses and entrepreneurs. Banyule is also identified as an area to be promoted as a tourist destination, which may assist in business attraction and investment in the centres. The Plan identifies that the Health Care and Social Assistance sector provides significant employment and value added to the municipality and continues to grow, while manufacturing is on the decline, despite still playing a significant role.

BANYULE HOUSING STRATEGY (2009)

The Housing Strategy provides direction for the development of housing in Banyule until approximately 2030. This includes population and dwellings projections as well as strategic direction for housing development. The strategy notes that Banyule’s population growth was expected to equate to approximately 13,500 additional people between 2006 and 2026. There was the anticipation that the municipality would experience an ageing population and reducing household sizes, with more lone and two person households. The Housing Strategy has a strong focus on sustainability and reducing car dependency by locating housing development near shops and transport access. Utilising Activity Centres as locations for places of housing diversity is also a priority. This strategy has been implemented into the Banyule Planning Scheme and a Residential Areas Framework within Clause 21.06, as discussed above.

MUNICIPAL REPORT: ECONOMIC INFORMATION BASE (2009)

The report was developed by SGS which provides an understanding the City’s growth potential through identifying and assessing six priority Activity Centres in Banyule. Most projections made in the report extend from 2006 to 2031. The report identified Banyule’s role as a specialist centre for health-related activities, particularly Heidelberg, as well as a skilled workforce feeder, however there was no significant office hub in the municipality with the majority of office investment going to the Melbourne CBD and inner eastern suburbs. Many skilled workers travel to these areas for white-collar work. The strongest growth in employment had recently occurred in the Health & Community Services, which was also the most prevalent employing industry in Banyule. The report identified that the larger activity centres in Banyule were expected to continue to play the most significant roles, with Greensborough maintaining significant retail floorspace, while Heidelberg will continue with the greatest floorspace for health services.

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2.4.1. MUNICIPAL STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN

The Banyule Planning Scheme includes a municipal Strategic Framework Plan (Clause 21.02) which identifies the existing Activity Centre hierarchy, including 3 activity centres (Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Greensborough) and 10 Neighbourhood Centres (Bundoora, St Helens, Watsonia, Diamond Village, Lower Plenty, Montmorency, Macleod, Rosanna, The Mall (Heidelberg West) and Ivanhoe East. Eaglemont is also identified in Clause 21.08 (Local Places) as a Neighbourhood Centre but is not shown on the Strategic Framework Plan. The Strategic Framework Plan is shown in Figure 3.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 23 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 3 BANYULE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK PLAN

2.4.2. LOCAL STRUCTURE PLANS

A number of Structure Plans have been completed for Activity Centres and local areas, including: • The GreenBook: Greensborough Principal Activity Centre Plan, 2006; • Greensborough Structure Plan Review: DLA, 2015; • Heidelberg Structure Plan, DLA, 2010; • Ivanhoe Structure Plan, MGS, 2014; • Bell Street Mall Urban Design Framework, WBA and Lateral Projects, 2011 • Picture Watsonia: A Vision for Watsonia Village, Hello City, 2014; • Olympic Village Local Structure Plan, 1995. A review of each of the above plans is provided in Appendix C.

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2.5. MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

A number of major infrastructure projects are underway or proposed for the Banyule area – key projects are summarised as follows.

HURSTBRIDGE TRACK DUPLICATION AND ROSANNA GRADE SEPARATION

This $140.2 million project includes the duplication of current 1.2 km of single line train track between Heidelberg and Rosanna. Construction is anticipated to be completed during 2019. Other major features of the rail duplication project include reconstruction of the Rosanna Station; removal of level crossings at Lower Plenty Road, Rosanna and at Grange Road, Alphington; and planning for a new bus route 343 between Greensborough and Diamond Creek. The proposed level crossing removals will improve traffic movement throughout Banyule, especially within the Rosanna Activity Centre. Duplicating the single line will also allow for a simplified timetable and provide a more frequent and reliable train service, increasing the attractiveness of many parts of Banyule to future residents.

BOLTON STREET RECLASSIFICATION

VicRoads has commenced steps to reclassify Bolton Street, located on the eastern border of Banyule between Bridge Street and Main Street, as an arterial road. This will include a $10.5 million upgrade to the road, which would improve arterial road traffic flow, particularly in the Montmorency area.

NORTH EAST LINK “OPTIONS STUDY”

The State Government has committed $10 billion to the North East Link project, which would connect the Eastern Freeway / Eastlink and the Metropolitan Ring Road. The link could result in reducing through traffic in parts of Banyule, particularly along Lower Heidelberg Road, and provide improved connectivity from Banyule to the eastern and western suburbs. The link would enhance access to existing major employment centres through improved orbital road connectivity and increased capacity of the freight network. The link also aims to improve employment access particularly to clusters such as La Trobe, Epping, Ringwood and Broadmeadows. The road alignment has not been finalised - route selection is expected to be completed by 2018. Figure 4 shows the freeway network and the broad area through which the North East Link may be constructed.

FIGURE 4 LOCATION OF THE “MISSING LINK”, NORTH-EAST LINK

Source: Herald Sun, 2016

OTHER PROJECTS

There are a number of other projects that have either recently been completed, underway or in the planning for Banyule and surrounds, including:

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• University-Township Masterplan for La Trobe University (completed); • Re-investment in Northland Shopping Centre (Darebin City Council); • Investment in housing for Heidelberg-West – residential growth aspirations are significant and could lead to a five-fold increase if this suburb attracts other investment or benefits from planned changes at nearby Northland and LaTrobe University; • Upgrade to Emergency Facility at Austin Hospital; • Olivier Newton-John Cancer Centre in Heidelberg (completed); • Further expansion of the Warringal Private Hospital; • Construction of the new Banyule City Council offices in Greensborough (completed) • Planning for a renewed civic precinct in Ivanhoe. • Development of a range of major residential and commercial sites which are in varying stages of the planning process. They include: • Major apartment developments with more than 1,700 apartments approved, under planning assessment or in pre-registration2; • Major townhouse development on former Bellfield Primary School site (81 townhouses); • Places Victoria master planning of the decommissioned water supply reservoir (tank) at Upper Heidelberg Road for housing and public open space; • Far East residential subdivision in Greensborough; • New Woolworths in Rosanna (approved); • DHHS Public Housing Project, including redevelopment of key housing sites near Bell Street. In addition, it is anticipated that the state of the Simpson Army Barracks will be reviewed in the future. If deemed to be no longer need for defence purposes, future master planning could reveal a significant residential and commercial redevelopment opportunity. Subject to Federal Government priorities and timing.

2.6. KEY FINDINGS

The key findings and implications from review of existing strategy and policy relevant to Banyule’s activity centres are as follows. Greater Melbourne has experienced a period of strong population growth in recent years, which is expected to continue over the next decade, and into the forecast period of this project (2036). However, historical growth has been unbalanced with Melbourne’s outer suburbs and inner-city precincts accommodating the vast share of growth. This has led to a number growing pains including the slow and expensive roll out of infrastructure and services to meet growing needs of outer suburb residents, and capacity issues for inner city infrastructure. Therefore, metropolitan and state policy are increasingly focusing on the Melbourne’s established urban areas and middle ring suburbs to accommodate a higher proportion of future growth. As an established middle-ring municipality, with excellent public transport connections and easy access to employment in central Melbourne, Banyule will be expected to accommodate further growth. This will increase development pressure on the municipality’s established housing areas for infill development, and higher density residential development in the major Activity Centres. Plan Melbourne directs major employment growth to the Latrobe National Employment and Innovation Cluster, particularly the Heidelberg Health Precinct, the major activity centres of Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Greensborough, and urban renewal opportunities near the Rosanna station. The future role and land use mix within Neighbourhood Centres in Banyule will also be important given the dispersed nature of activity centres and community services across the municipality and support for 20-minute Neighbourhoods in Plan Melbourne Refresh.

2 Urban Melbourne, as at February 2017.

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In line with wider macro-economic trends, regional and state policy supports growth in key industries which are matched with the existing economic strengths of Banyule and its strategic positioning including health, aged care, retail, hospitality and professional services. There are a number of significant infrastructure investments have been confirmed (or within the planning phase) which will improve transport connectivity, access to services and increase the desirability of Banyule for residential development. This includes the upgrading of public transport capacity, arterial road connections, and improved health services.

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3. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT

3.1. INTRODUCTION

This section provides an assessment of the economic drivers that influence industry trends and commercial floorspace, including macro-economic indicators, workplace profile regional employment growth. Further analysis and floorspace projections are provided in Section 7.

3.2. MACRO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Victoria’s economy continues to improve, reflecting its diversity and resilience in response to shifting national and state conditions. The transition away from mining investment as the main driver of national economic growth is well under way, and Victoria has been placed to benefit and now has Australia’s strongest growth in state final demand. With the population growth and business development in Victoria, there is continual change in the economy and the economic drivers. Based on the information from the in the 2017/18 State Budget Update, the past development and future growth of the key economic drivers include: • Gross State Product (GSP) saw a 3.3% growth over the year of 2015-16 and is expected to remain at that rate during 2017-18. There is anticipation of further growth in the non-resource sector due to low interest rates and a weak Australian Dollar, in which the service sectors have improved and increased employment. It is expected that as of 2017-18, the national economic growth should start to return to trend. • Inflation was projected to be 2.1% over the 2015-16 period. This rate of inflation is projected to be lower than the growth in wages (3.6%) and the discount rate (3.1%) • Unemployment in Victoria saw a year average of 5.9% in 2015-16. However, with the improvement of economic activity, it is anticipated that the unemployment rate with gradually decline. • Interest rates across the 2014-15 year have been low in Victoria, and the traditional growth drivers have been responding to the low rate, enabling an improvement in the economic activity. • Population growth for Victoria was recorded at 2.1% over 2015-16, the highest growth rate of all states. Net overseas migration has been the largest contributor to population growth, accounting for more than 50% of the state’s population increase. • Dwelling investment grew 11.1% in 2015-16, the highest growth rate since 2012. The large amount of work in the pipeline should continue to support a high level of dwelling investment for some time. Ongoing structural change is a feature of the Victorian economy. Over the past 20 years, the services sector has increased its share of the economy while the goods sector has declined in relative importance. Nearly two-thirds of net jobs growth in Victoria over the past decade can be attributed to the following five industries: health care and social assistance; professional, scientific and technical services; education and training; construction; and public administration and safety.

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3.3. KEY MUNICIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Table 4 provides a summary of the economic profile of Banyule, compared with headline information for Greater Melbourne. In 2015, there were an estimated 46,522 jobs located in Banyule. Banyule has a significantly lower unemployment rate (3.7%) than the metropolitan average (5.9%). The major economic driver in Banyule is Health Care and Social Assistance, providing 29% of employment, 20% of economic output, and 29% of value added during 2014/15.

TABLE 4 ECONOMIC PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE

Economic Indicator Industry Sector Banyule Greater Melbourne Local Jobs (2015) All sectors 46,552 1,756,403 Unemployment Rate (2016) All sectors 3.7% 5.9% Gross Regional Product ($m) All sectors $4,646 $279,229 Health Care and Social Assistance 29% 11% Retail Trade 11% 11% Employment – Banyule Workers Education and Training 10% 8% (2014/15) Construction 9% 9% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 5% 10% Health Care and Social Assistance 20% 5% Construction 12% 11% Manufacturing 10% 14% Economic Output (2014/15) Retail Trade 7% 5% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 6% 6% Total ($m) $7,402 - Health Care and Social Assistance 29% 8% Education and Training 9% 6% Retail Trade 8% 6% Value Added (2014/15) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 7% 10% Financial and Insurance Services 5% 14% Total ($m) $3,740 - Source: Economy ID 2016

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LABOUR FORCE PROFILE

Table 5 shows the location of work of Banyule residents. 24% of residents within the labour force work within Banyule and 19% of residents work in the City of Melbourne, reflecting the close proximity of many parts of the municipality to the CBD and excellent public transport access. A greater proportion of Banyule residents are employed in service sectors than the proportion of jobs available in Banyule, including Financial and Insurance Services, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Public Administration and Safety, reflecting Banyule’s role as a labour force provider to the CBD. This also indicates that there may be an opportunity to increase employment retention in these sectors if appropriate office space is made available within the municipality.

TABLE 5 LOCATION OF WORK, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011

LGA of Work Banyule Residents % of Total Banyule (C) 13,911 24% Melbourne (C) 11,037 19% Darebin (C) 4,342 8% Whittlesea (C) 3,245 6% Yarra (C) 2,747 5% POW No Fixed Address (Vic.) 2,168 4% Other 19,462 34% Total 56,912 100% Source: ABS Census 2011.

TABLE 6 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE RESIDENTS, 2011

% of Banyule % of Banyule Industry of Employment 2006 2011 Change Resident Worker Employment Employment Health Care and Social Assistance 7,503 8,469 966 14% 29% Education and Training 5,812 6,262 450 11% 10% Retail Trade 5,828 5,659 -169 10% 11% Professional, Scientific and Technical 4,604 5,515 911 9% 5% Services Construction 4,369 4,920 551 8% 9% Manufacturing 5,426 4,703 -723 8% 7% Public Administration and Safety 3,830 4,153 323 7% 5% Accommodation and Food Services 2,660 2,840 180 5% 6% Financial and Insurance Services 2,674 2,766 92 5% 2% Wholesale Trade 2,576 2,356 -220 4% 3% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 2,051 2,184 133 4% 2% Other Services 2,119 1,963 -156 3% 4% Administrative and Support Services 1,706 1,752 46 3% 2% Information Media and 1,368 1,337 -31 2% 1% Telecommunications Industry not classified 1,293 1,135 -158 2% Arts and Recreation Services 925 1,045 120 2% 2% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate 767 841 74 1% 1% Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 405 510 105 1% 0% Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 139 133 -6 0% 0%

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Mining 80 123 43 0% 0% Total 56,135 58,666 +2,531 100% 100% Source: ABS Census 2011

BANYULE BUSINESSES

During the period 2012 to 2015, there was an overall reduction in the number of businesses registered in Banyule. Table 7 shows that there were 230 less business registered in 2015 as compared with 2012. The most significant reductions came from industrial sectors, with the number of registered businesses in the Transport, Postal & Warehousing, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Manufacturing, Construction, and Wholesale Trade industries all declining. The sectors which have seen an increase in business registrations are generally those located within or near Activity Centres including Financial & Insurance Services, Accommodation & Food Services, and Health Care & Social Assistance.

TABLE 7 NUMBER OF REGISTERED BUSINESSES BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2012 AND 2015

# # Change Industry Businesses % of Total Businesses % of Total (2012- (2012) (2015) 2015) Construction 1,991 19% 1,970 20% -21 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 1,578 15% 1,530 15% -48 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 1,087 11% 1,070 11% -17 Financial and Insurance Services 948 9% 1,057 11% +109 Health Care and Social Assistance 801 8% 866 9% +65 Retail Trade 625 6% 627 6% +2 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 511 5% 434 4% -77 Manufacturing 422 4% 381 4% -41 Other Services 410 4% 411 4% +1 Administrative and Support Services 398 4% 389 4% -9 Wholesale Trade 372 4% 350 4% -22 Accommodation and Food Services 314 3% 342 3% +28 Education and Training 175 2% 173 2% -2 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing 166 2% 119 1% -47 Arts and Recreation Services 143 1% 120 1% -23 Industry not classified 141 1% 0 0% -141 Information Media and Telecommunications 82 1% 88 1% +6 Public Administration and Safety 34 0% 33 0% -1 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 19 0% 24 0% +5 Mining 3 0% 6 0% +3 Total business 10,220 9,990 -230 Source: Economy ID, 2016

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WORKPLACE PROFILE

Table 8 shows the workplace profile for Banyule compared with metropolitan Melbourne. Banyule has a slightly older worker age profile than the Melbourne average, and a higher proportion of workers travel to work by car than the Greater Melbourne average. Only 38% of those employed in Banyule also live in the municipality. Although public transport allows for easy connections to the CBD, access to employment in Banyule is less convenient for residents in adjoining LGAs. A greater proportion of Banyule workers have low incomes compared with the metropolitan average, indicating that many of the jobs currently available in Banyule are relatively low-paid and/or low skilled.

TABLE 8 WORKPLACE PROFILE, BANYULE (2011)

Workplace Greater Banyule (C) profile Melbourne 15 - 24 years 15% 14% 25 - 34 years 20% 24% 35 - 44 years 22% 24% Age 45 - 54 years 24% 22% 55 - 64 years 16% 13% 65+ years 4% 3% Less than $399 19% 15% $400 - $599 14% 11% $600 - $799 16% 15% Weekly Income $800 - $999 14% 13% $1,000 - $1,249 13% 13% $1,250 - $1,499 9% 10% More than $1,500 16% 22% Bachelor or Higher degree 35% 34% Qualifications Year 12 or equivalent 68% 70% Car 71% 65% Journey to Work Public Transport 4% 11% Active Transport 4% 4% Banyule (C) 38% - Place of Whittlesea (C) 12% - residence Darebin (C) 7% - Manningham (C) 5% - Source: ABS Census 2011

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EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE

Table 9 and Figure 5 show the change in employment in Banyule over the period of 2009/10 to 2014/15 within each industry sector. The most significant industry of employment, Health Care and Social Assistance, has also seen the greatest increase in employment with almost 1,000 jobs added over the period. In line with broader economic trends, employment in manufacturing in Banyule has declined in recent years. The majority of manufacturing employment is concentrated in the Heidelberg West industrial precinct which forms part of the Latrobe NEC. The sectors that are usually located within Activity Centres have experienced mixed results when it comes to employment growth. While Health Care & Social Assistance and Accommodation and Food Services experienced employment growth, Retail Trade and Professional Services experienced employment decline over the period despite population growth.

TABLE 9 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 AND 2014/15

Banyule Workers Percentage 2015 Change Percentage Greater Industry 2009/10 2014/15 (2009/10 - Banyule (C) Change Melbourne 2014/15) Health Care and Social Assistance 12,756 13,697 +941 7% 29.4% 11.0% Retail Trade 5,171 5,121 -50 -1% 11.0% 10.7% Education and Training 4,710 4,634 -76 -2% 10.0% 8.3% Construction 4,323 4,227 -96 -2% 9.1% 8.5% Manufacturing 3,752 3,149 -603 -16% 6.8% 10.1% Accommodation and Food Services 2,477 2,919 +442 18% 6.3% 6.0% Public Administration and Safety 2,578 2,558 -20 -1% 5.5% 5.7% Professional, Scientific and Technical 2,603 2,467 -136 -5% 5.3% 9.6% Services Other Services 2,133 2,013 -120 -6% 4.3% 3.7% Wholesale Trade 1,383 1,417 +35 2% 3.0% 5.1% Administrative and Support Services 1,025 999 -26 -3% 2.1% 3.6% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 630 781 +151 24% 1.7% 5.0% Financial and Insurance Services 720 739 +19 3% 1.6% 5.1% Arts and Recreation Services 363 708 +345 95% 1.5% 1.8% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 543 620 +77 14% 1.3% 1.6% Information Media and 327 327 +0 0% 0.7% 2.4% Telecommunications Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 112 123 +11 10% 0.3% 1.2% Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 43 42 -1 -2% 0.1% 0.4% Mining 5 10 +5 100% 0.0% 0.2% Total Industries 45,652 46,552 +901 +2% Source: Economy ID. 2016

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 33 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 5 CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY, BANYULE, 2009/10 – 2014/15

Change (2009/10 - 2014/15) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600

-800

Mining

Retail Trade Retail

Construction

Other Services Other

Manufacturing

Wholesale Wholesale Trade

Education and Training and Education

Arts and Recreation and Services Arts Recreation

Agriculture, Forestry Fishing and Agriculture,

Financial and Insurance Services and Insurance Financial

Public Administration and Safety and PublicAdministration

Health Care and Care Assistance Social Health

Accommodation and Food Services Accommodationand

Transport, Postal and Warehousing Postal and Transport,

Administrative and Services Support Administrative

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services and Estate Real Hiring Rental,

Electricity, Gas, Water and Services Water Waste Gas, Electricity,

Information Media and Media Telecommunications Information Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Scientific Professional,

Source: Economy ID. 2016

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REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Table 10 shows employment projections by industry for the Melbourne North-East Region between November 2015 and November 2020 prepared by the Federal Government. Overall, employment growth is expected to be strong with a 10% increase projected for the region over the 5-year period. The projections for each sector align with current trends, with an expected continued decline in Manufacturing and growth in services and knowledge- based industries. Healthcare and Social Assistance, a key industry for Banyule, is expected to continue to experience employment growth. Industries which are commonly located within Activity Centres are projected to experience significant employment increases, including Retail Trade, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, Public Administration & Safety, Health Care & Social Assistance, Finance & Insurance Services, and Accommodation and Food Services.

TABLE 10 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY, NOV 2015 – NOV 2020, MELBOURNE NORTH EAST REGION

Projected Employment Projected employment growth 2015 Industry employment - - Nov-2015 2020 Nov-2020 Number Number Number % Growth p.a. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 924 955 +32 0.66% Mining 404 366 -38 -1.96% Manufacturing 23,761 22,362 -1,399 -1.21% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 2,722 2,990 +268 1.90% Construction 22,662 25,237 +2,575 2.18% Wholesale Trade 9,800 9,390 -410 -0.85% Retail Trade 30,250 34,784 +4,534 2.83% Accommodation and Food Services 14,499 16,616 +2,118 2.76% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 11,439 12,836 +1,397 2.33% Information Media and Telecommunications 4,838 4,869 +31 0.13% Financial and Insurance Services 10,318 11,166 +849 1.59% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 3,192 3,672 +480 2.84% Professional, Scientific and Technical 18,207 20,343 +2,136 2.24% Services Administrative and Support Services 6,482 7,218 +736 2.17% Public Administration and Safety 15,492 17,561 +2,069 2.54% Education and Training 20,235 22,895 +2,660 2.50% Health Care and Social Assistance 31,491 38,517 +7,026 4.11% Arts and Recreation Services 4,272 4,843 +571 2.54% Other Services 9,791 10,437 +645 1.29% Total 245,058 271,336 +26,279 2.09% Source: Labour Market Information Portal, 2016

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 35 CITY OF BANYULE

3.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

Macro-economic conditions and regional employment projections point to relatively strong employment growth in the northern region in industries which align with the strengths of the municipality, many of which will require land and floorspace within Activity Centres. Key industry trends include: • On-going employment growth and investment in healthcare based on the ageing population and increased spending on health and wellbeing services. The healthcare sector already represents almost a third of all employment in the municipality and is expected to grow. Employment growth is expected within key institutions (Austin Health) as well as in allied health services and wellbeing businesses which are likely to be located within Activity Centres. Growth in the health sector will have flow-on impacts to other sectors in the local economy which service major institutions and workers, such as retail, hospitality and business services. • Education and Training is an existing strength of Banyule, with a number of schools and private institutions located in the municipality. Employment is expected to grow in this sector due to population growth and increased State investment. Similar to the health sector, growth in the education sector will have flow on impacts on businesses located in Activity Centres which service students and staff. • Retail Trade has experienced limited growth in Banyule recent years. However, at the regional level, employment growth in this sector is anticipated to be driven by population growth. Further detailed discussion on the retail sector is provide in Section 4. • Accommodation and Food Services has grown strongly in recent years driven by population growth, and increased consumer spending on hospitality. This is reflected in the changing business mix of some of Banyule’s activity centres, with a growing number of cafes and restaurants currently operating. • The professional and business services sector currently has a relatively low employment and business presence in Banyule. There is a limited number of larger professional companies and large floor plate office users. The sector is primarily composed of small businesses which are located in shopfront tenancies in Activity Centres, or home-based businesses. State policy and regional employment projections expect continued employment growth as Victoria continues to transition to a more service-based economy. Although the inner-city is expected to continue to absorb the majority of growth, there is strong policy support to direct growth middle-ring suburbs which have good public transport connections and access to a professional workforce such as Banyule.

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4. RETAIL AND ACTIVITY CENTRE CONTEXT

4.1. INTRODUCTION

This section includes a review of the competitive context for activity centres in Banyule; a high-level assessment of existing employment, commercial uses, and retail activity currently within Banyule’s Activity Centres; trends in retail expenditure; and recent development of retail and commercial floorspace across the municipality. Detailed analysis of Banyule’s six largest Activity Centres is outlined in the Activity Centre Economic Information Base Report.

4.2. ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY

The existing hierarchy of activity centres in Banyule and surrounding areas is detailed in Figure 6 and Table 11. The hierarchy shows the classification of centres based on Plan Melbourne, with the addition of selected neighbourhood and supermarket centres that influence the retail dynamics of the municipality. Plan Melbourne does not identify a Metropolitan Activity Centre in Banyule - the nearest such centres are located in Epping and Box Hill. The three largest Activity Centres in Banyule are Greensborough, Heidelberg, and Ivanhoe, all of which are located along the Hurstbridge train line. Greensborough is the only retail centre in Banyule which includes a Discount Department Store, generally a pre- requisite for a retail centre to perform a sub-regional or regional role. Ivanhoe and Heidelberg therefore primarily perform neighbourhood retail roles, along with local specialised roles such as health services (Heidelberg) and hospitality (Ivanhoe). Rosanna and Watsonia, both Neighbourhood Centres, are also located on the train line, but have a more limited retail role. Heidelberg West is predominantly a convenience retail centre serving a localised catchment as well as passing traffic along Bell Street, as well as supporting a number of important community services. There is an overall lack of higher order retail stores in Banyule, with only two Discount Department Stores (both in Greensborough). This is partly the result of the close proximity of Northland and Doncaster Shopping Centre.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 37 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 6 ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE

Source: Plan Melbourne, 2014, Neighbourhood and supermarket centres added by Urban Enterprise.

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TABLE 11 REGIONAL ACTIVITY CENTRE HIERARCHY, BANYULE

Activity Centre Shopping Centre Centre Name Classification Classification Anchors Role (Plan Melbourne) (PCA) Service a broad community in the northern suburbs, with Metropolitan Coles, Woolworths, weekly shopping needs and some discount retail. A Epping Major Regional Activity Centre ALDI, Harris Scarfe number of medical services compliment the neighbouring hospital. Myer, David Jones, Major Centre, east of Banyule. Everyday needs and higher Major Activity Major Regional Doncaster Hill Woolworths, Myer, order retail (over 400 specialty stores). Services local Centre (Westfield) Target community and wider municipalities. Major shopping centre providing everyday needs as well Myer, Coles, Preston - Major Activity Major Regional as higher order shopping (over 300 specialty stores). Woolworths, ALDI, Northland Centre (Northland) Broad catchment, attracting significant portions of Target, Kmart surrounding municipalities. Bunnings, Officeworks, Harvey Preston Bulky Major Activity Major bulky goods precinct servicing the northern region Norman, Spotlight, Goods Centre of Melbourne, including Banyule. Good Guys, JB HiFi, Super Amart. Employment Employment La Trobe Cluster/Education Cluster (Plan Latrobe University Major education and employment precinct. Precinct Melbourne) Services the local and broader community with a large Major Regional Major Activity Coles, Woolworths, shopping centre. Anchors provide daily and weekly needs, Greensborough (Greensborough Centre Target, Kmart, Hoyts while discount retail and entertainment facilities exist. Plaza) Access nearby from Metropolitan Ring Road Major Activity Largely serves weekly needs of local community with Centre / National Coles, Le Max, shopping centre and main street shopping. Nearby law Heidelberg Employment and Sub-Regional Woolworths, precinct with police station and magistrates court. Innovation Dimmeys, ALDI Significant health precinct serves the majority of the Cluster municipality. Medium sized shopping centre, services local and broader Northcote Major Activity catchment with multiple supermarkets, and some discount Sub-Regional Coles, ALDI, Kmart Plaza Centre retail. Further retail, hospitality and commercial activities located along High Street.

Largely independent retailers located within the market Major Activity Neighbourhood Preston Market, Preston and along High Street, anchored by a Woolworths Centre Centre Woolworths supermarket.

Reservoir Medium size shopping centre with supermarket and DDS. (Summerhill Major Activity Services local community including neighbouring NC Coles, Kmart Shopping Centre retirement village, DDS would attract some expenditure Centre) from western parts of Banyule. Services the local communities of Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East Major Activity and parts of Darebin to the west, along with nearby Ivanhoe NC Coles, Woolworths Centre schools. Primarily a convenience centre with supporting roles in health services, fashion and cafes.

Major Activity Coles, Woolworths, Street based large neighbourhood centre near the Eltham Eltham NC Centre Dan Murphy’s Tran Station. Neighbourhood centre on tram line, serves suburb of Bundoora NC Coles, Woolworths Bundoora and surrounding schools, hospital and aged care facilities. Single supermarket and significant main street is likely to services the local community, however location on a train Reservoir NC Coles line and focused around the station along with a number of community and civic buildings creates an important centre. Large factory outlet stores located adjacent to small Uni Hill Town neighbourhood centre. Serves the immediate business and NC Coles, Nike Centre education precinct as well as the surrounding residential areas (including student accommodation).

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 39 CITY OF BANYULE

Heidelberg Largely serves the surrounding community and passing West (The NC ALDI, IGA traffic on Bell Street with convenience retail needs, plus Mall) discount retail and takeaway food. Serves the immediate community for everyday needs, with Rosanna NC IGA an IGA and specialty shops. Largely services the needs of the immediate Watsonia NC SUPA IGA neighbourhood through main street shopping. Source: Plan Melbourne, 2014; Shopping Centre Directory, 2009; Banyule City Council Rates Data, 2016

4.3. ACTIVITY CENTRE FLOORSPACE AND EMPLOYMENT

CURRENT RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE

An estimate of retail and commercial floorspace currently located within the municipality was prepared using Council’s rates database (2016) analysed against Urban Enterprise’s standard categorisation of the Australian Valuation Property Classification Codes (AVPCC) which are outlined in Appendix A. In addition to ‘retail’ and ‘commercial’ floorspace, other uses are also common in activity centres such as leisure, recreation, education, civic and community uses. The location and scale of these other floorspace types are assessed in the individual activity centre reports. Table 12 shows the distribution of retail and commercial floorspace across the six largest activity centres and the balance of the municipality. It is estimated that Banyule has approximately 255,000sqm of retail floorspace and 192,000sqm of commercial floorspace. Greensborough is the largest centre by retail floorspace, followed by Heidelberg, and Ivanhoe. More than 30% of the retail floorspace within the municipality exists outside the six identified Activity Centres, much of which is floorspace dedicated to bulky goods sales and Neighbourhood and Local Centres such as Montmorency, Macleod, East Ivanhoe, Lower Plenty, Bundoora, Diamond Village and St Helens. Despite having clearly the most retail floorspace of any activity centre (80,000sqm), Greensborough has a relatively low proportion of commercial floorspace, reflecting the primarily retail and entertainment role of the centre. This may present the opportunity for further office development in the centre, including the proposed WaterMarc development incorporating new Banyule City Council offices. Heidelberg has the largest concentration of commercial floorspace among activity centres, much of which is dedicated to private hospitals and medical centres. Ivanhoe also has significant commercial space (19,000sqm) considering the smaller size of the centre. Despite having the lowest amount of retail floorspace of the six activity centres, Rosanna has a higher amount of commercial floorspace than the other two smaller centres at Heidelberg West and Watsonia. A similar concentration of commercial floorspace could be attracted to Watsonia as a result of infrastructure improvements and urban renewal planned for the centre.

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TABLE 12 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE SUPPLY, BANYULE, 2016

Retail Floorspace Commercial Activity Centre % of Total % of total (sqm) Floorspace (sqm) Greensborough 80,600 32% 22,330 12% Heidelberg 46,000 18% 77,481* 40% Ivanhoe 27,800 11% 19,140 10% Heidelberg West 10,500 4% 1,614 1% Watsonia 8,700 3% 2,315 1% Rosanna 6,300 2% 4,763 2% Sub-total 179,900 70% 127,643 66% Outside Activity Centres 75,400 30% 64,954 34% Total Banyule 255,300 100% 192,597 100% *Includes medical related floorspace, except for public hospital floorspace. Source: Urban Enterprise, based on Banyule City Council Rates Database, 2016. Note: floorspace estimates vary from other reports prepared for Banyule City due to the categorisation of land uses applied by report authors.

SUPERMARKET PROVISION AND DISTRIBUTION

Supermarkets are the cornerstone of modern retail networks, capturing the majority of expenditure within the Food, Liquor and Groceries category which is comfortably the largest category in terms of expenditure. In most suburban areas of Australia, supermarkets are increasing in size. Both major supermarket brands (Coles and Woolworths) generally prefer large format or ‘full-line’ supermarkets in the order of 3,000 to 4,000sqm for modern store layouts. The emergence of Aldi as a genuine competitor (smaller discount supermarkets, typically 1,000 – 1,500 sqm) is driving strong competition in the sector and increasing diversity in the scale and location of supermarkets. Table 13 shows the location, brand and size of supermarkets in Banyule. There is a relative lack of full -line supermarkets in the municipality (six), two of which are in Ivanhoe in the southern section of the municipality and three of which are in Greensborough or St Helena in the northern section of the municipality. The central areas, including Heidelberg, Rosanna, Watsonia and Heidelberg West are primarily serviced by a network of small and mid-size supermarkets, many of which are former independent supermarkets and are relatively dated in terms of store presentation, product offer and layout. The overall supermarket floorspace of approximately 37,000sqm equates to 0.29sqm per Banyule resident. This is below the Melbourne average of 0.33sqm per resident3, indicating that there is potentially an undersupply of supermarket floorspace. There is also a lack of modern, full-line supermarket floorspace in Banyule. These issues are likely to increase with population growth over the planning period. An assessment of supermarket demand is included within the accompanying Activity Centre Assessment Economic Information Base Report.

TABLE 13 BANYULE SUPERMARKETS

Floorspace Location Supermarket Brand Scale Setting (sqm) Within Activity Centres Greensborough Coles 3,259 Full-line Shopping Centre Woolworths 2,800 Full-line Stand alone Aldi 1,439 Mid-size Shopping Centre Heidelberg Coles 3,469 Full-line Shopping Centre Woolworths 2,000 Mid-size Stand alone Aldi 1,460 Mid-size Shopping Centre Le Max 2,300 Mid-size Strip Ivanhoe Coles 4,135 Full-line Stand alone

3 Urbis, 2016.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 41 CITY OF BANYULE

Woolworths 3,000 Full-line Strip The Mall (Heidelberg IGA 500 Local Shopping centre West) Aldi 1,500 Mid-size Stand alone Rosanna IGA 600 Local Strip Watsonia IGA 700 Local Strip Outside Activity Centres St Helena Woolworths 3,560 Full-line Stand alone Montmorency Foodworks 550 Local Strip Bundoora Aldi 1,400 Mid-size Strip Bundoora Foodworks 550 Local Strip Watsonia IGA 2,000 Mid-size Strip East Ivanhoe Foodworks 900 Local Strip Lower Plenty IGA 500 Local Strip Heidelberg West Foodworks 350 Local Strip Eaglemont IGA Express 400 Local Strip Total 37,372 Source: Shopping Centres Online 2017, Urban Enterprise, 2017.

ACTIVITY CENTRE EMPLOYMENT

An estimate of employment within Banyule’s activity centres was prepared using 2011 Census data, with Destination Zones matched with activity centre boundaries through a ‘best-fit’ exercise. It is estimated that more than half of all employment in Banyule (59%) is located within the Destination Zones that correspond to the six largest activity centres. Table 14 shows employment by industry within and outside the six activity centres. Industries with the highest proportion of their employment in activity centres are Health Care and Social Assistance (84%, primarily due to the concentration of hospitals within the Heidelberg Activity Centre), Retail Trade (76%) and Accommodation and Food Services (72%).

TABLE 14 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE’S SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES (2011)

% Employment % of Banyule Employment in in Activity Total Banyule Industry Employment in Activity Centres Centres by Employment Activity Centres Industry Health Care and Social Assistance 9,511 45% 11,363 84% Retail Trade 3,096 15% 4,088 76% Education and Training 1,614 8% 3,724 43% Accommodation and Food Services 1,427 7% 1,973 72% Public Administration and Safety 1,124 5% 2,053 55% Professional, Scientific and Technical 984 5% 2,221 44% Services Construction 553 3% 2,261 24% Other Services 492 2% 1,341 37% Financial and Insurance Services 384 2% 594 65% Manufacturing 367 2% 2,812 13% Administrative and Support Services 365 2% 793 46% Wholesale Trade 301 1% 991 30% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 290 1% 458 63% Industry not classified 194 1% 285 68% Information Media and Telecommunications 147 1% 262 56%

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Arts and Recreation Services 127 1% 353 36% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 102 0% 566 18% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 19 0% 53 36% Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 12 0% 115 10% Mining 0 0% 14 0% Total industries 21,289 100% 36,320 59% Source: ABS Census 2011.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 43 CITY OF BANYULE

4.4. RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY

The total value of buildings constructed for retail and wholesale trade, offices, entertainment and recreation and industrial purposes increased from $11.8m in 2012 (calendar year) to $28.9m in 2016 (January to November). Retail and wholesale trade building has experienced a steady increase in building value of the period as shown in Figure 7, while other categories have been less consistent. The construction of a major office development in Greensborough resulted in clearly the highest annual value of any non-residential building category in 2015.

FIGURE 7 VALUE OF COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS APPROVED, BANYULE, 2012-2016

Source: ABS Building Approvals, Jan 2012-Nov 2016.

Figure 8 shows the location of building activity in the various SA2s in Banyule, broken down for each building category. 48% of retail building and 68% of office building value has taken place in Greensborough. SA2s which include the Ivanhoe and Heidelberg Activity Centres have also experienced significant proportions of retail and office building activity, while industrial building activity has primarily been concentrated in Heidelberg West and Bundoora.

FIGURE 8 LOCATION OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ACTIVITY IN BANYULE, 2012 - 2016

Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2012 – 2016. Analysed by Urban Enterprise. Source: ABS Building Approvals, Jan 2012-Nov 2016.

Source: ABS Building Approvals, Jan 2012-Nov 2016.

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4.5. RETAIL DEMAND TRENDS

Over the past 20 years, the amount spent by Australian residents on retail goods and services has increased at a higher rate than inflation (known as real per capita growth in retail expenditure). Real per capita expenditure growth has increased at an average rate of 2.25% per annum since 1984 (ABS Retail Trade). This has resulted in an increasing amount of retail floorspace per person over time. The rate of growth is slowing, however, likely reflecting the increasing influence of online retailers among other macro-economic factors. Online retail is capturing in increasing share of retail expenditure in Australia, with turnover growth outpacing traditional store-based retail. This has placed additional pressure on existing retailers and has contributed to challenging economic conditions for all retail sectors. If online market share continues to increase, demand for shopfront floorspace may decrease in response. Conversely, demand for postal services, transport and distribution could increase. The impact of online retail will vary for each retail type.

BANYULE RETAIL DEMAND PROFILE

In Banyule, the retail expenditure made by residents varies significantly by suburb. The average annual retail expenditure in 2014 was $13,416, higher than the Melbourne average of $12,841. Expenditure is significantly higher in Ivanhoe East and Ivanhoe, but below the Melbourne average in Watsonia, Bundoora East and Heidelberg West. Table 15 shows retail expenditure per person by SA2 in Banyule. Figure 9 shows the distribution of retail expenditure by SA1. The demand profile will influence both the quantum of supportable floorspace in each activity centre as well as the types of floorspace and retailers that will be encouraged to located in each area.

TABLE 15 ANNUAL RETAIL EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA2, BANYULE, 2014

Average Expenditure Per SA2 Difference from Banyule Average Person Ivanhoe East - Eaglemont $15,689 +16.9% Ivanhoe $14,707 +9.6% Montmorency - Briar Hill $14,010 +4.4% Heidelberg - Rosanna $13,784 +2.7% Greensborough $13,339 -0.6% Viewbank - Yallambie $13,298 -0.9% Watsonia $12,753 -4.9% Bundoora - East $12,297 -8.3% Heidelberg West $11,496 -14.3% Banyule Average $13,416 Melbourne Average $12,841 Source: Market Info – Retail Expenditure by SA1 2014

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 45 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 9 EXPENDITURE PER PERSON BY SA1, BANYULE & SURROUNDS, 2014

Source: Market Info – Retail Expenditure by SA1 2014 If real per capita retail expenditure continues to increase, the retail expenditure of Banyule residents will grow considerably over the planning period for this study. Table 16 provides a projection of future retail expenditure per capita, applying inflation from 2014 to 2016, an average growth rate of 1% per annum from 2016 to 2026, and 0.5% per annum from 2026 to 2036, reflecting the ongoing increases in real per capita expenditure but at a slowing rate of increase. By 2036, this projection results in an annual retail expenditure of $16,098 per person for Banyule residents.

TABLE 16 SUMMARY OF RETAIL EXPENDITURE PROJECTION, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036

Retail Category 2016 2026 2036 Food, Liquor and Groceries $6,279 $6,936 $7,290 Food Catering $1,823 $2,014 $2,116 Apparel, Homewares and $3,794 $4,191 $4,405 Leisure Bulky Goods $1,454 $1,607 $1,689 Retail Services $514 $568 $597 Total $13,864 $15,315 $16,098 Source: MarketInfo, 2014 adapted by Urban Enterprise.

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4.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

The key findings from analysis of Banyule’s activity centre hierarchy are as follows. • Greensborough, Heidelberg and Ivanhoe are the only centres identified in Plan Melbourne as ‘Activity Centres’. There are no higher order ‘Metropolitan Activity Centres’ identified within Banyule; • Greensborough is the only activity centre in Banyule which includes a Discount Department Store, thereby serving a broader sub-regional catchment. Ivanhoe and Heidelberg are large neighbourhood centres which serve both neighbourhood and specialised roles, while Rosanna, Watsonia and Heidelberg West are Neighbourhood Centres which primarily serve local catchments with convenience retail needs; • The Activity Centre hierarchy and retail role of Banyule centres is strongly influenced by the accessibility of residents to higher order regional centres in neighbouring municipalities, primarily Northland Shopping Centre and Doncaster Shopping Centre. These larger retailing centres have considerably in recent years are are expected to continue to provide Banyule residents with higher order retail needs throughout the planning period for this study; • Banyule’s six largest activity centres combine to constitute a major driver of the Banyule economy. Activity Centres are the location for 59% of Banyule’s employment, 70% of retail floorspace and 66% of commercial floorspace; • Two-thirds of supermarket floorspace is located within the activity centres of Ivanhoe, Heidelberg and Greensborough. Banyule has a lower provision of supermarket floorspace than the metropolitan Melbourne average, and some parts of the municipality are relatively poorly served by modern full -line supermarkets; • The value of non-residential building activity in Banyule has increased significantly over the past 5 years, underpinned by a steady increase in the value of retail and wholesale trade building construction and the completion of a major office development in Greensborough; • Per capita retail expenditure is increasing over time, however online sales are attracting a growing share, leading to changes in the way many stores are positioned. Retail expenditure per person varies across Banyule, with significantly higher expenditure levels in the southern suburbs of Ivanhoe and Ivanhoe East. Banyule’s activity centres are important retail and employment locations and will need to accommodate ongoing growth to meet population growth and non-residential building activity, both of which have increased strongly over recent years. There is the opportunity to improve the overall distribution and quality of retail floorspace, in particular through the attraction of full-line supermarkets in existing activity centres and new retail floorspace as part of new mixed-use developments. It is noted that many of Banyule’s activity centres are located adjacent to train stations and contain successful local strip shopping comprising a range of independent retailers. There is a relatively low reliance on large shopping centres, with the exception of Greensborough. This profile presents the opportunity for strips to evolve and potentially specialise in a particular retail and/or hospitality role (for example, Ivanhoe has attracted a strong café presence in recent years), much in the same way that inner Melbourne strips have specialised such as Brunswick Street and Lygon Street. This degree of specialisation is not generally possible within shopping centres. There is also a threat, however, that the significant amount of retail expenditure - and therefore pedestrian traffic – that is drawn to larger retailers such as supermarkets, big-box stores and department stores could result in challenges to smaller activity centres with smaller and ageing anchors, unless new /upgraded retail anchors are accommodated over the planning period, especially in locations expected to experience significant population growth (i.e. Heidelberg and Ivanhoe).

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 47 CITY OF BANYULE

5. HOUSING IN ACTIVITY CENTRES

5.1. INTRODUCTION

The provision of housing within activity centres – in particular medium and high density dwellings – is becoming more common in middle-ring areas of Melbourne such as Banyule, in part due to the strong policy support for this type of development at the State level. This section provides an assessment of residential development trends occurring in Banyule and other comparable municipalities, and the potential impact of housing and demographic trends on residential land demand within Banyule’s activity centres.

5.2. METROPOLITAN POPULATION AND HOUSING TRENDS

Melbourne is currently experiencing a period of significant population growth and dwelling construction activity. Over the past decade, Greater Melbourne has grown by just under one million residents to 4.5 million (in 2015). Strong growth is expected to continue with population projected to exceed 6.5 million by 2036 as shown in Table 17.

TABLE 17 HISTORIC AND FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH, GREATER MELBOURNE (GCCSA)

Region ERP 2005 ERP 2015 Historical Annual Growth Rate Data Source Greater Melbourne 3,697,372 4,529,496 2.05% ABS ERP 2011 ERP 2036 Forecast Annual Growth Rate Greater Melbourne 4,169,366 6,532,973 1.81% VIF2016 Source: VIF 2016, ABS Regional Population Growth Table 18 shows trends in residential building activity in Melbourne. There has been a significant shift in the proportion of detached dwellings constructed compared with ‘other residential buildings’ (apartments, townhouses, units, etc.). In 2007-8, ‘other’ dwellings represented only 30% of total dwellings constructed and in recent years this has increased to over 50%. The increase in demand for medium and high density dwellings has been driven by a range of factors including: • Decreasing availability of greenfield sites; • Decreasing affordability of existing dwellings (especially separate houses) relative to incomes; • Strong demand for investment properties (including both domestic and overseas investors); • Demographic shifts leading to smaller household sizes; • Increasing number of older residents seeking to downsize; and • General lifestyle trends including increased acceptance and popularity of apartment living.

TABLE 18 BUILDING APPROVALS, GREATER MELBOURNE, JUNE 2007 – JUNE 2016

Other residential Total dwellings % Other Year Area* Houses (no.) building (no.) (no.) Residential

2007-08 Melbourne 22,086 9,849 32,397 30% 2011-12 Greater Melbourne 20,060 18,221 38,760 47% 2015-16 Greater Melbourne 25,830 30,555 57,164 53%

*There was a change in reporting boundaries in 2011-12 Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2011 – 2016.

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5.3. BANYULE POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC AND HOUSING PROFILE

BANYULE POPULATION TRENDS

Over the 10-year period between 2005 and 2015, the Banyule population increased from 117,149 residents to 126,232 (ABS), an increase of just over 9,000 residents (or 900 per year) at an average rate of 0.75% per annum. Population growth is projected to continue at a similar rate, according to the two primary sources of population forecasts at the municipal level currently available (Victoria in Future 2016 and Forecast ID 2015). These sources project population growth ranging from 0.75% to 0.83% per annum, with the Banyule population expected to increase by between 16,000 and 18,000 residents over the period 2016 to 2031. Forecast ID projects population growth of just under 20,000 residents between 2016 and 2036, equating to an average of approximately 1,000 additional residents per year, slightly higher than annual population growth over the most recent 10 year period. The expected population growth rate for Banyule is significantly lower than that projected for Metropolitan Melbourne (1.81% per annum). The extent to which these overall projections are considered accurate for Banyule is reviewed in this section based on recent residential development activity and the likely influence of State and local planning policy.

TABLE 19 POPULATION GROWTH RATES, BANYULE (C)

Average Annual Source 2011 2016 2031 2036 Growth Rate (%) Forecast ID (2011 – 2036) 122,983 128,201 144,231 148,095 0.75% VIF 2016 (2011 – 2031) 122,983 127,387 145,036 n.a. 0.83% Source: Forecast ID, 2016; Victoria In Future, 2016; Abs Regional Population Growth, 2005-2015; ABS Census, 2001 – 2011. N.a. = not available.

FIGURE 10 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION TRENDS, BANYULE, 2005 - 2036

ABS Regional Population Growth VIF 2016 Forecast ID 150,000 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000 125,000 120,000 115,000

110,000

2019 2027 2035 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2028 2029 2031 2032 2033 2034 2036

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020 2030 2005 Source: Forecast ID, 2016; Victoria In Future, 2016; Abs Regional Population Growth, 2005-2015.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 49 CITY OF BANYULE

BANYULE DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

Table 20 shows key demographic indicators of Banyule, compared with Grater Melbourne. As at the most recent Census (2011), the Banyule population had a higher median age, higher median income, higher proportion of residents with tertiary qualifications and a greater proportion of professionals than the metropolitan Melbourne area.

TABLE 20 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE, BANYULE VS GREATER MELBOURNE

Indicators Banyule Greater Melbourne Population (2015) 126,232 4,529,500 Population Growth Rate (2005-2015) 0.75% 2.23% 0-14 years 18% 18% 15-24 years 13% 14% 25-44 years 28% 30% Age Structure 45-64 years 26% 24% 65 years and over 16% 13% Median Age (2011) 39 36 Household Income p/week (2011) $1,394 $1,333 Variation from Greater Melbourne 5% - Income Personal Income p/week (2011) $618 $591 Household Size 2.6 2.6 Family households 72% 72% Household composition Lone person households 24% 23% Group households 4% 5% Professionals 29% 24% Clerical and Administrative 16% 15% Workers Technicians and Trades Workers 13% 13% Occupation Managers 12% 13% Community and Personal Service 10% 9% Workers Sales Workers 9% 10% Bachelor Degree Level or higher 31% 29% Education Year 12 or equivalent 60% 60% Source: ABS Census, 2011, Economy ID. 2016. Demographic projections prepared by Forecast ID (December 2015) indicate that a range of factors will lead to increased demand for a greater diversity of housing types and sizes in Banyule, including: • The average household size is expected to decrease from 2.57 persons per household in 2016 to 2.51 in 2036, a trend which is expected to moderate demand for larger dwellings and increase demand for dwellings with less bedrooms; • A significant increase in seniors (those aged 70-85 years) is projected, from 9% of the population in 2016 to 11% in 2036. 4,851 additional residents in this age group is the greatest projected increase of any ‘service age group’ and is likely to lead to substantial market demand for smaller dwellings in Banyule as existing residents seek to ‘downsize’ from their family homes; • An increase in elderly residents (those aged over 85 years) is projected (+1,952 residents over the period 2016 to 2036), which will contribute to demand from downsizers, along with increasing demand for aged care units, nursing home beds and associated health services; and • A significant increase in lone person households (+2,828 households over the next 20 years) and couples without children (+2,815 households) is projected, likely to increase demand for smaller dwellings including townhouses, units and apartments.

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BANYULE HOUSING

Table 21 shows key indicators of the current housing stock and housing market in Banyule compared with Greater Melbourne. 81% of dwellings in Banyule are separate dwellings, significantly higher than the Melbourne average of 73%, with a corresponding lower proportion of units and apartments in Banyule (9% compared with 15% across Melbourne). Median dwellings prices, home ownership rates and housing costs all reflect the generally high value of housing in Banyule, however there is a wide variation in housing value by suburb across the municipality, as shown in Figure 12. All suburbs except Heidelberg West had a higher median house price in 2015 than the Melbourne median of $600,000, with four suburbs having a median in excess of $1m (Ivanhoe, Ivanhoe East, Heidelberg and Eaglemont). House and unit median price growth in Banyule has exceeded that of Melbourne overall since 2005, indicating strong demand for housing in the municipality. As shown in Figure 11, over the past two years the median unit price trend in Banyule has begun to divert from the overall Melbourne price growth trend, indicating particularly strong demand for units and apartments in Banyule. This is likely to be partially influenced by the construction of new apartments in Banyule in recent years, many of which are high quality, larger apartments compared with other areas of Melbourne.

TABLE 21 HOUSING PROFILE, BANYULE AND GREATER MELBOURNE

Category Indicator Banyule Greater Melbourne Number of dwellings (2011 ABS 48,119 1,636,167 Census) Dwellings Number of dwellings (2016) 51,003 1,865,413 Dwelling growth 1.63% 2.66% Occupancy Rates 93.1% 91.0% Separate Dwelling (2011) 81.1% 73.0% Occupied Dwelling Semi-detached dwellings (2011) 10.0% 11.6% Types Unit/apartment (2011) 8.9% 15.4% House (2005) $345,000 $320,000 House (2015) $708,750 $600,000 Median Property House Price Growth (2005-15) 7.5% 6.5% Values Unit (2005) $285,000 $285,000 Unit (2015) $540,000 $482,500 Unit Price Growth (2005-15) 6.6% 5.4% Owned outright 38.9% 32.7% Home Ownership Owned with a mortgage 34.5% 36.8% Rented 23.8% 27.2% Median mortgage repayment $1,900 $1,810 Housing Costs (monthly) Median rental p/week (2016) $408 $400 Projected no. of Dwellings 2016 51,225 1,881,007 Victoria In Future 2016 Projected no. of Dwellings 2031 59,664 2,522,247 Project no. of Dwellings 2051 3,416,800 Source: ABS Census, 2011, DELWP – The Guide to Property Values, 2015, ABS Building Approvals, 2011-2016 *Only one lot of vacant land sold in these years

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 51 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 11 INCREASE IN MEDIAN PROPERTY VALUES, HOUSE AND UNIT, BANYULE VS METRO MELBOURNE, 2005 - 2015

Banyule - Median House Banyule - Median Unit Metro Melbourne - Median House Metro Melbourne - Median Unit 800,000

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Valuer General, Guide to Property Prices, 2016

FIGURE 12 MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE, BANYULE SUBURBS, 2015

Source: A Guide to Property Values, Valuer General, 2016.

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5.4. RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY

The availability of residential land supply in Banyule and nearby areas will influence the type, location and quantum of housing constructed in Banyule over the planning period, and the proportion of overall dwelling demand that will be met within activity centres. The supply of vacant residential land and vacant lots has continued to reduce over the medium term in Banyule. As shown in Table 20, the number of vacant lot sales per year has significantly diminished since 1985, demonstrating the established nature of the municipality and the absence of any remaining greenfield residential land in the municipality.

TABLE 22 NUMBER OF VACANT LOTS SOLD, BANYULE (C), 1985 - 2015

Year Number of Vacant Lots 1985 sold434 1995 211 2005 82 2015 11 Source: Valuer General, Guide to Property Prices, 2016. The Urban Development Program (UDP, 2015) identifies a total of only 12.8 ha of broadhectare residential land in Banyule, located in the suburbs of Greensborough and St Helena in the north-east of the municipality. As a result of the lack of greenfield supply, the vast majority of dwelling demand over the next 20 years will need to be met in established areas, including minor re-subdivisions in residential areas, urban renewal of industrial and other sites, and higher density development in activity centres. In terms of major residential development (i.e. infill development of strategic sites in established areas) currently identified in Banyule, the UDP data shows that: • The Heidelberg Activity Centre is projected to accommodate the greatest number of infill dwellings constructed over the next 10 years (1,021), with the majority of these expected to be completed within two years; • The Ivanhoe Activity Centre is also expected to accommodate a significant increase in dwellings on major sites in the next 2 years (555 dwellings); • Rosanna and Watsonia have no major redevelopment sites identified by the UDP within the activity centre boundaries. In total, there is anticipated to be 2,148 dwellings constructed within the boundaries of the six major activity centres on major redevelopment sites over the next 10 years.

TABLE 23 MAJOR REDEVELOPMENT SITES WITHIN SIX LARGEST ACTIVITY CENTRES IN BANYULE, UDP, 2015

Heidelberg Ivanhoe Heidelberg Rosanna Watsonia Greensborough Total West Under Construction 114 178 - - - 68 360 Construction 0-2 years 441 612 - - - 194 1247 Construction 3-5 years 62 156 135 - - 75 428 Possible Construction 6-10 - 75 - - - 38 113 years Total 617 1,021 135 - - 375 2148 Source: Urban Development Program, 2015.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 53 CITY OF BANYULE

5.5. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

The scale and type of residential development activity in recent years provides a guide to the trends occurring in dwelling locations and types, and an indication of the likely balance of future dwelling construction between locations and development settings across Banyule. This section presents data relating to residential development activity drawn from: • Building permits obtained from Council for dwelling construction and demolition between January 2011 and September 2016; and • ABS Building Permits for new dwellings from July 2011 to July 2016 (ABS data does not include data on dwelling demolitions).

5.5.1. COUNCIL BUILDING PERMITS

Table 24 shows a summary of the approved dwelling construction and demolition permits by zone in Banyule between January 2011 and November 2016. A total of 3,802 new dwellings were approved for construction and 916 approved for demolition, resulting in a net increase in the number of dwellings approved of 2,866 over the period, or 487 net additional dwellings per annum. Particularly high approvals were recorded in 2014 and 2015, and likely in 2016 (data to September only).

TABLE 24 ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY YEAR, BANYULE, JAN 2011 – SEPTEMBER 2016

Number of dwellings Number of dwellings Percentage of total Year approved for Additional Dwellings approved for demolition additional dwellings construction 2011 479 118 361 13% 2012 552 114 438 15% 2013 609 141 468 16% 2014 791 177 614 21% 2015 806 194 612 21% 2016* 565 173 392 14% Total 3,802 917 2,885 100% *Year to September Source: Banyule City Council, 2016. Notes: Based on advice from Council, one demolition permit is assumed to equate to one dwellings demolished in all zones, with the exception of C1Z, IN1Z and IN3Z for which is has been assumed that any demolition permits are related to commercial buildings. It should also be noted that a number of inaccurate entries were identified in Council’s building permit database (primarily due to multi-unit permits were listed as a single permit without information regarding the number of dwellings approved). Therefore, the total number of new dwellings approved is likely to be higher than quoted in this section. Further detailed analysis in Stage 2 of the project – Activity Centre Analysis, is anticipated to identify any further inaccuracies in the dataset.

LOCATION AND ZONE OF APPROVALS

62% of dwelling approvals were in the General Residential Zones, with a further 19% in the Neighbourhood Residential Zone. 9% of approvals were in the Residential Growth Zone, with a further 9% in the zones generally located in Activity Centres (Commercial 1 Zone, Activity Centre Zone and Mixed Use Zone). Overall, 19% of net additional dwellings were approved within Activity Centre boundaries, as shown in Table 23, 97% of which were in the activity centres of Ivanhoe and Heidelberg. Figure 13 shows the location of all dwelling approvals across the municipality, with concentrations particularly evident in West Heidelberg, Bellfield and Rosanna.

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TABLE 25 PERMITS FOR ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS BY ACTIVITY CENTRE, 2011 – 2016

% of Additional Dwellings in Activity Centre Additional Dwellings Banyule Ivanhoe 236 8% Heidelberg 292 10% Heidelberg West 0 0% Rosanna 0 0% Watsonia 1 0% Greensborough 18 0.6% Total 547 19% Source: Banyule City Council Building Permits, 2011-2016

FIGURE 13 LOCATION OF RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS 2011-2016

Source: Urban Enterprise 2016, Banyule City Council Building Permits, 2011-2016

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 55 CITY OF BANYULE

5.5.2. ABS DWELLING APPROVALS

Table 26 shows the number of dwellings approved in Banyule as published by the ABS for each completed financial year since 2011/12. Residential building permits have increased each year since 2011/12, with a significant increase in 2015/16, driven by a major increase in ‘other’ residential dwellings (units and apartments). The proportion of dwellings approved in other residential buildings has increased significantly over the past 5 years, from 46% in 2011/12 to 80% in 2015/16, likely to be driven by the recent apartment boom in parts of the municipality. 1,630 dwellings were approved for construction in 2015/16, more than double any other financial year since 2011/12. Given that dwelling completions generally lag approvals by 12 to 18 months, this indicates that a significant short term boost to dwelling supply and local population is expected in Banyule.

TABLE 26 DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016

New other residential Other residential Year New houses Total dwellings building dwellings as a % of total 2011-12 195 185 400 46% 2012-13 226 324 557 58% 2013-14 298 388 691 56% 2014-15 293 469 765 61% 2015-16 326 1,300 1,630 80%

Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2016

FIGURE 14 NUMBER OF DWELLING APPROVALS BY YEAR, BANYULE (C), JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016

2,000 1,630 1,500

1,000 691 765 557 400 500

0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

1400

1200

1000 New houses 800 New other 600 Linear (New houses)

400 Linear (New other ) Dwellingsapproved 200

0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2016 Table 27 shows the breakdown of dwellings approvals for each SA2. Heidelberg West (1,199) and Ivanhoe (850) had the highest number of dwellings approved over the period, and also had the highest number of ‘other’ dwellings approved.

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TABLE 27 ABS DWELLING APPROVALS BY SA2, BANYULE, JULY 2011 – JULY 2016

New other Total dwellings per SA2 New houses Total dwellings residential annum Greensborough 187 162 352 70 Heidelberg - 139 503 642 12 Rosanna Heidelberg West 354 822 1,199 240 Ivanhoe 149 694 850 170 Watsonia 59 56 116 23 Total Banyule 1,338 2,688 4,065 813 Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2011 - 2016

COMPARISON WITH OTHER MUNICIPALITIES

Table 28 shows a comparison of the proportion of dwelling approvals as ‘other’ dwellings in surrounding inner and middle ring municipalities with comparable proximity to the Melbourne CBD to Banyule. The average proportion of dwelling approvals in middle-ring municipalities that were in ‘other’ residential buildings over that past 5 years has been steady at around 80%, with higher proportions experienced in Stonnington and Yarra, and lower proportions in Moonee Valley and Boroondara. Banyule has historically had the lowest proportion of dwellings approved in ‘other’ residential buildings (multi-unit developments) of all municipalities analysed, however this proportion has increased significantly over the past 5 years to 80%, in line with the 2015/16 average. This demonstrates that Banyule has only recently experienced a comparable residential development profile to other middle ring suburbs, and that this profile could be expected to continue as opportunities for detached dwelling types remain low. Based on discussions with Council staff, the trend towards increasing numbers of multi-unit development approvals is expected to have maintained over the past six months, and is continue over the next couple of years with a large number of projects in the pre-planning phase.

TABLE 28 DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’ DWELLINGS, BANYULE AND SELECTED MUNICIPALITIES, JUNE 2011 – JUNE 2016

Municipality 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Trend (+/-)

Moreland 93% 81% 73% 83% 77% -16% Boroondara 61% 71% 69% 68% 52% -8% Yarra 96% 88% 93% 89% 91% -5% Stonnington 89% 91% 94% 92% 93% +4% Darebin 71% 75% 74% 85% 80% +9% Maribyrnong 81% 80% 77% 86% 90% +9% Moonee Valley 50% 61% 73% 73% 73% +23% Average of above 84% 79% 80% 82% 80% -4% Banyule 46% 58% 56% 61% 80% +34% Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2011 - 2016

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 57 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 15 PROPORTION OF DWELLING APPROVALS IN ‘OTHER’RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS, 2011-2016

Boroondara (C) Darebin (C) Maribyrnong (C) Moonee Valley (C) Moreland (C) Stonnington (C) Yarra (C) Banyule (C) 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Source: ABS Building Approvals, 2011 – 2016

5.6. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

The key findings of this section and implications for the Activity Centre Strategy are as follows: • Melbourne is currently experiencing a period of significant population growth and dwelling construction activity. Historically, growth has not been distributed evenly across the city, with the majority of growth concentrated in outer suburban greenfield sites and high density development within the inner-city. The fundamentals underpinning Melbourne’s population growth (primarily immigration) are expected to continue in the foreseeable future, with the population projected to grow to 6.5 million by 2036; • Banyule has experienced steady population growth in recent years, primarily through urban consolidation within existing residential areas. Population forecasts (VIF2016 & Forecast ID) project an increase in the order of 900 new residents per annum over the next 15 to 20 years at a growth rate of 0.75% - 0.81% per annum, consistent with growth over the past 10 years; • Building permit data show that there has been a significant increase in the volume of new dwellings approved for construction in Banyule in recent years, driven by a significant increase in apartment construction primarily in Heidelberg and Ivanhoe; • Demand for medium and high density housing in Banyule is expected to continue over the short to medium term, underpinned by a range of factors including decreasing household size, significant growth in older age cohorts likely to seek smaller dwellings, high median prices for housing alternatives in most of Banyule (i.e. separate houses). A number of local factors position Banyule as an attractive location for medium and high density residential dwellings, including: • Lack of supply of other forms of housing other than medium and high density residential; • Access to excellent health services; • Access to public transport and connectivity to the CBD; and • High amenity and community services. • The strong supply of new apartments to the market is expected to continue over the short term, with the UDP and Council staff identifying a large number of projects in the planning phase. If dwelling construction continues at or near current volumes, population projections for Banyule are likely to be significantly exceeded, at least in the short to medium term. Banyule’s activity centres, particularly those located on or near train stations and in the southern parts of the municipality, are expected to experience strong demand for residential housing in the form of medium and high density dwellings. This will lead to strong competition for development sites with other land uses, and the need for additional retail, commercial and community services to be provided within and near activity centres. As

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development sites become more scarce in Ivanhoe and Heidelberg, opportunities are likely to arise within and near other activity centres such as Rosanna, Macleod and Watsonia for medium and high density residential development.

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PART B. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

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6. POPULATION AND DWELLING DEMAND

6.1. INTRODUCTION

This section discusses the implications of a range of population and growth scenarios for activity centres based on recent trends and dwelling construction volumes.

6.2. EXISTING DWELLING AND POPULATION FORECASTS

Population and dwelling projections prepared by Forecast ID in December 2015 are based on the assumptions for future dwelling construction shown in Figure 16, including a peak construction year of 725 dwellings in 2017, between 600 and 700 dwellings per annum between 2017 and 2022, and then a reduction to a longer term trend of between 350 and 400 dwellings per annum from 2023 onwards. As shown in Table 27, the long term average projection is for 469 dwellings to be constructed each year in Banyule. As previously identified however, 1,630 dwellings were approved for construction in 20164, far exceeding the Forecast ID projections. Discussions with Council indicate that this significant growth is expected to continue over the coming years with a number of major projects in the pre-planning phase.

FIGURE 16 FORECAST ID PROJECTED DWELLING DEVELOPMENT 2012-2036

Source: Banyule Forecast ID, December 2015.

TABLE 29 BANYULE DWELLING FORECASTS TO 2036 (FORECAST ID)

Avg. Avg. annual annual 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 additional growth dwellings rate Forecast 50,652 53,938 56,257 58,124 60,034 469 0.85% ID Source: Banyule Forecast ID, 2015.

4 This does not account for dwelling demolitions which are estimated at approximately 100. Therefore, the net dwelling growth is expected to be closer to 1,500.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 61 CITY OF BANYULE

6.3. GROWTH SCENARIOS

In order to effectively plan for potential higher growth scenarios and their impact on the activity centre network, a range of factors need to be taken into consideration. The high number of apartment approvals in 2016 indicates that the aggregate number of dwellings constructed in Banyule over the coming years is likely to exceed current projections. However, this is a small sample on which to project higher growth over the medium to long term, and many factors could result in future annual dwelling construction rates being lower than current rates, including: • The current surge in apartment development may be partially underpinned by latent demand which will be absorbed over the short term; • As existing major sites for apartment development are consumed over the coming years, the availability of sites will be limited and developers will increasingly need to consolidate fragmented sites and seek other more complicated development sites, thus slowing the rate of new apartment supply; and • Unlike other nearby municipalities such as Darebin and Moreland, Banyule does not have a significant area of industrial land / brownfield redevelopment opportunities. As such, the majority of apartment development will need to occur within existing Activity Centres where there is competition from a range of other land uses. Although construction is unlikely to continue at current rates over the long term, it appears likely that short to medium term construction will exceed current projections, particularly considering that more than 1,700 apartments are currently approved, under planning assessment or in registration / sales in Banyule.5 This section provides scenarios for dwelling construction, and therefore population growth, taking into account the strong rate of recent dwelling construction and apartment project proposals. One scenario is to assume that the current rate of growth will continue for the next four years based on the development cycle for projects currently in the pre-planning, planning and construction phases, after which growth will revert to the long-term rate projected by Forecast ID of 460 dwellings per annum. A short-term average of 1,000 dwellings per annum has been adopted for the first four years of this scenario, which is the average number of dwellings approved over the past 3 years in Banyule. This scenario is referred to as the base scenario, which results in an average of 575 additional dwellings per annum over the next 20 years. A second, higher growth scenario has also been included to measure the impact of a sustained long term increase in dwelling construction. This scenario assumes that the average of the past 5 years of dwelling approvals (approximately 800 dwellings per annum) will continue throughout the 20 year planning period. The population and dwelling outcomes of the two alternative growth scenarios are shown in Table 30, alongside projections prepared by Forecast ID.

TABLE 30 BANYULE DWELLING AND POPULATION SCENARIOS 2036

Annual Average Additional Dwellings Growth 2016- Population Growth 2016- Scenario Dwellings per annum 2036 2036 Forecast ID +469 +9,382 +19,894

Base Growth Scenario +575 +11,504 +25,081

Higher Growth Scenario +800 +16,000 +35,973

* Population forecasts have been developed using the Forecast ID assumptions including Dwelling Occupancy Rate 2036: 96.52%, Average Household Size: 2.51, Population in non-private dwellings 2036: 2,789 Source: Urban Enterprise 2017, Forecast ID 2015 Based on these scenarios, Banyule would potentially experience growth of up to 11,504 – 16,000 additional dwellings and 25,000 – 36,000 additional residents between 2016 and 2036. It is noted that these are potential scenarios to inform long term strategic planning given that current development rates are higher than recent projections available to Council, rather than definitive estimates of likely growth. The scale of dwelling growth will ultimately depend on the extent to which new apartment projects continue to be developed. Given that municipalities in Melbourne with similar characteristics to Banyule are experiencing higher

5 Urban Melbourne, February 2017.

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annual dwelling approvals (averaging between 1,000 and 1,500 dwellings approved per annum over the past 6 years, as shown in Figure 17), it is considered that the scale of dwelling construction included in the Base scenario and High growth scenario are reasonable. If short term construction rates continue, it is also possible that demand may exceed the higher growth scenario, however further evidence of a sustained higher rate of development would be required to support that conclusion.

FIGURE 17 NUMBER OF DWELLINGS APPROVED PER ANNUM, COMPARABLE INNER AND MIDDLE RING MUNICIPALITIES, 2011/12 - 2016/17

Source: ABS Dwelling approvals. Note: 2016/17 data to December only, extrapolated to full year for the purpose of comparison.

6.4. IMPLICATIONS FOR ACTIVITY CENTRES

Higher dwelling and population growth rates across Banyule would only be achieved through the ongoing development of new dwellings within and near activity centres. This is likely to lead to strong competition for sites within activity centres, along with opportunities for new retail and commercial floorspace at lower levels of new developments. Greater concentration of new residents in activity centres will lead to demand for local retail and community services within those centres, and well as significant pressure on civil and social infrastructure. Demand increases are likely to lead to improvements in retail performance of existing shops and some opportunities for new anchor retailers such as supermarkets. A higher rate of population growth across the municipality will lead to increased demand for local employment opportunities and therefore commercial space. The scale of floorspace demand likely to be generated across the next 20 years is assessed in the following section.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 63 CITY OF BANYULE

7. MUNICIPAL FLOORSPACE DEMAND

7.1. INTRODUCTION

This section assesses the scale of potential future retail and commercial floorspace requirements, based on population growth, employment projections and retail expenditure increases. Municipal projections such as these are necessarily broad estimates, with results varying due to a range of local, national and international economic factors. These projections have been prepared to guide strategic planning and to underpin a broad understanding of the scale of floorspace requirements to inform the Activity Centres Strategy.

7.2. POTENTIAL MUNICIPAL EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES

The most recent estimate for Banyule is that there were approximately 46,500 jobs in the municipality as at 2015, which equated to 0.37 jobs per resident. Historically, employment increased at an average rate of 0.9% per annum between 2000 and 2015 in Banyule. The employment trend is shown in Figure 18. If this medium-term trend continues, an additional 9,500 local jobs would be created in Banyule between 2015 and 2036 as shown in Table 31.

FIGURE 18 EMPLOYMENT IN BANYULE, 2000/01 – 2014/15

48,000 47,000 46,000 45,000 44,000 43,000 42,000 41,000 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000

Source: NEIR, 2016.

TABLE 31 POTENTIAL SCALE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BASED ON HISTORICAL RATE OF GROWTH, BANYULE, 2015-2036

Average Annual 2036 2015 Additional Jobs Scenario Growth Rate 2000 Employment Employment (2015 – 2036) to 2015 (@ 0.9% p.a.) Employment in 0.9% 46,552 56,066 +9,514 Banyule Source: ABS Census, 2011, Economy ID, 2016, Adapted by Urban Enterprise Another way of projecting potential future employment levels is to assume that the ratio of jobs to residents in Banyule will remain constant over the planning period. Although not all employment is linked to population growth, this method usually provides a useful guide to the likely scale of employment growth at the municipal level over a medium-term outlook. In the case of Banyule, the jobs to resident ratio remained relatively consistent from 2005 (0.36 jobs per resident) to 2015 (0.37). If the remains at 0.37, this would result in employment growth over the next 20 years of between 8,200 and 15,000 jobs as shown in Table 30, depending on the population scenario.

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TABLE 32 POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ASSUMING CONSTANT JOBS PER RESIDENT RATIO, BANYULE, 2015-2036

2036 (Forecast Growth 2015 – 2015 2036 (base) 2036 (high) ID) 2036 Population 126,692 148,095 154,411 165,652 +21,000 – 39,000 Jobs 46,552 54,795 57,132 61,291 +8,200 - 15,000 Jobs per 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 resident Source: NEIR 2015, Forecast ID, 2015, adapted by Urban Enterprise.

7.3. TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

A number of regional employment forecasts have been completed for the Northern Melbourne region which provide a guide as to likely changes in employment within each major industry in the region. The regions assessed cover a wide geographic area and a diverse cross section of the Melbourne economy, however the broad trends reflect changes occurring across various industries and should be taken into account when planning for retail and employment floorspace in Banyule. Table 33 summarises recent and projected changes in employment by industry, drawing on regional projections. Overall, most industries which require retail and commercial floorspace are projected to experience strong growth in employment, particularly Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Financial and Insurance Services. These industries experienced either low or negative employment growth in Banyule over the period 2009 to 2015. Similarly, retail employment is projected to grow strongly in the region, however there has been no employment growth in Banyule in recent years. Recent growth in employment in Banyule in the Accommodation and Food Services industry is expected to continue based on regional projections for strong growth. Health employment is projected to grow across the region. Given recent employment growth and proposed ongoing investment in new hospital facilities in Banyule, the health sector is expected to continue to perform strongly in terms of local employment.

TABLE 33 TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRIES REQUIRING RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE

Short term Regional Projection Long Term Regional Projection Industry (North East Region, 2015-2020) (Northern Region, 2015 – 2035) Average annual Proportional Average annual Proportional Measure % change in change by % change in change by employment industry employment industry Retail Trade 2.8% 0.46% 0.9% -0.7% Accommodation and Food Services 2.8% 0.20% 1.3% 0.1% Information Media and Telecom. 0.1% -0.19% 1.7% 0.2% Financial and Insurance Services 1.6% -0.10% 1.6% 0.2% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2.8% 0.05% 1.7% 0.2% Professional, Scientific and Technical 2.2% 0.06% 1.4% 0.3% Administrative and Support Services 2.2% 0.01% 0.7% -0.2% Public Administration and Safety 2.5% 0.14% 0.1% -0.9% Health Care and Social Assistance 4.1% 1.34% 1.2% 0.2% Other Services 1.3% -0.16% 0.4% -0.6% Source: Labour Market Information Portal, 2016,, The Future Workforce: Melbourne’s North, 2015, NEIR 2015, compiled by Urban Enterprise.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 65 CITY OF BANYULE

HEALTH SECTOR EMPLOYMENT

The health sector is a key driver for commercial floorspace demand. It is difficult to forecast need associated with health facilities given the significance of public facilities and reliance on policy and government funding decisions (in terms of size, timing, and location). The following analysis is intended to provide an indication of the scale of potential demand for floorspace to support industry growth. Healthcare and Social Assistance is the largest employing sector in Banyule, with 14,490 workers in 2015/16, accounting for 31% of total employment (Banyule Economy ID). Between 2005/06 and 2015/16, employment in the sector grew by an additional 3,369 workers, at a rate of 2.7% per annum. This accounted for 73% of total employment growth in Banyule. Major hospitals in Banyule grew by almost 2,000 workers, as well as strong growth in other health sub-sectors, as shown in Table 34. Employment growth has been driven by investment in major hospitals (establishment of the Olivia Newton John Cancer and Wellness Centre, and expansion of Warringal Private Hospital), expansion of aged care facilities, and the growth in allied health services.

TABLE 34 HEALTHCARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN BANYULE

Health Care and Social Assistance Sub- 2005/06 2015/16 Growth % Growth Sector Hospitals 6,247 8,149 +1,901 30% Medical and Other Health Care Services 2,700 3,371 +671 25% Residential Care Services 974 1,313 +339 35% Social Assistance Services 1,200 1,657 +457 38% Total Health Care and Social Assistance 11,121 14,490 +3,369 30% Source: Banyule Economy ID Employment in the health sector is expected to continue to grow strongly over the coming years due to population growth, demographic changes (ageing population), and increased spending per person on health and wellbeing services. Employment in the Melbourne North East region (SA4) in Health Care and Social Assistance is forecast to grow by 4.1% per annum to 2020, the highest growth of any region in Melbourne.6 The Heidelberg Health Cluster, the largest health precinct in the northern region, would be expected to attract a high proportion of future growth. Based on the historical employment growth rate for Healthcare and Social Assistance (2.7% p.a.), employment in the sector is estimated to grow to almost 25,000 workers by 2036, an addition of 10,000 workers. This would represent a significant increase in employment, and would require reinvestment into public assets (particularly the Heidelberg Repatriation Hospital Site) and continued growth in private allied health sector. As mentioned above, growth will be dependent on government policy and funding decision-making, therefore, a moderate growth scenario has been included.

FIGURE 19 HEALTH EMPLOYMENT PROJECTION SCENARIOS

2036 Projected Growth Scenario 2016 Employment Growth Employment 2005-2015 Growth Rate (2.7%p.a.) 14,490 24,599 +10,109

Moderate Grown Scenario (2.0%p.a) 14,491 21,533 +7,042

Source: Urban Enterprise 2017

6 Australian Labour Market Information Portal Regional Projections, 2016

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IMPLICATIONS FOR RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE DEMAND

Estimates of employment growth in industries generally requiring land in activity centres have been prepared by Urban Enterprise, based on the recent and projected trends in employment growth. The results of the projections are shown in Table 35. These projections relate to an overall employment growth scenario of approximately 12,000 additional jobs over the next 20 years, which falls between growth in line with the medium-term average, and the ‘Base’ population growth scenario matched with the current jobs per resident ratio (0.37 jobs per resident). When typical employment densities are applied to these projections, the following approximate floorspace requirements are estimated for the municipality: • Retail and accommodation floorspace: 57,000 sqm (@30sqm per job); and • Commercial floorspace (excluding health care): 69,000 sqm (@35sqm per job); and • Health care floorspace: 140,000 – 200,000 sqm (@20sqm per job).

TABLE 35 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2015-2036

Change in Jobs Industry 2015 2036 (2015 - 2036) Industries primarily requiring Retail floorspace Retail Trade 5,121 6,241 +1,120 Accommodation and Food Services 2,919 3,597 +769 Sub-total 8,040 9,838 +1,889 Industries primarily requiring Commercial Information Mediafloorspace and Telecommunications 327 363 +72 Financial and Insurance Services 739 911 +226 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 620 796 +231 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2,467 3,169 +654 Administrative and Support Services 999 1,231 +136 Public Administration and Safety 2,558 2,696 +392 Health Care and Social Assistance 14,490 21,533 +7,043 Other Services 2,013 2,269 +256 Sub-total 23,420 32,969 +9,009 Source: Labour Market Information portal, 2016, The Future Workforce: Melbourne’s North, 2015., adapted by Urban Enterprise.

7.4. RETAIL FLOORSPACE DEMAND

A high-level retail floorspace projection was undertaken based on the current retail floorspace provision per person. The population scenarios outlined earlier in this report are used to estimate indicative future retail floorspace needs. It is noted that assessments of each of the six major activity centres in Banyule will be undertaken on an individual basis, including catchment areas, retail expenditure and supportable floorspace analysis. The high-level assessment undertaken in this report is provided as a guide to the likely scale of overall retail floorspace demand across the municipality. If the current ratio of retail floorspace to residents (1.97 sqm per resident) is assumed to continue over the planning period, there will be requirement for an additional 40,000 – 74,000sqm retail floorspace between 2016 and 2036, depending on the population growth scenario. As discussed earlier in this report, retail expenditure per person is increasing over time, and as a result, the average amount of retail floorspace per person is also increasing. To take this trend into account, a higher per-capita floorspace scenario has also been applied. For planning purposes, it has been assumed that the ratio will increase to 2.1sqm per person by 2036, a conservative increase. This scenario would result in demand for between 59,000sqm and 96,000sqm of additional retail floorspace in Banyule over the next 20 years, as shown in Table 33.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 67 CITY OF BANYULE

It is noted, however, that in order for the floorspace provision ratio to increase in Banyule, the additional expenditure generated by residents would need to be retained within the municipality. Given the strong competition from retailers in other municipalities and the ageing nature of many of the retail anchors in Banyule, a greater diversity of retail floorspace and improved quality of retail store and product offer would need to be developed over the period to ensure the amount of expenditure which escapes to other municipalities does not increase. In particular, it is likely that much of the Banyule residents’ expenditure on Department Stores, Discount Department Stores and bulky goods will continue to be drawn out of the municipality to large regional shopping centres such as Northland (and to a lesser extent Doncaster) and major bulky goods precincts such as at Northland.

TABLE 36 RETAIL FLOORSPACE PROJECTIONS, BANYULE, 2016 - 2036

2036 Base 2036 High Growth 2016 2036 (Forecast ID) Scenario Scenario (sqm) (sqm) Population 128,201 148,095 154,411 165,652

Additional Population +19,894 +25,081 +35,973 Current Floorspace density 1.97 1.97 (sqm/resident) Retail Floorspace (sqm) 252,000 292,000 301,000 326,000 Additional Retail - +40,000 +49,000 +74,000 Floorspace Alternative Floorspace density at 2036 1.97 2.1 (sqm/resident) Retail Floorspace 252,000 311,000 324,000 348,000 Additional Retail +59,000 +72,000 +96,000 Floorspace Source: Urban Enterprise 2016. Floorspace amounts rounded to the nearest thousand square metres.

7.5. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

The following key findings are drawn from the analysis in this section: • Based on recent employment growth and population projections, it is estimated that employment in Banyule over the next 20 years is likely to increase by at least 8,000 jobs, and up to 15,000 jobs. The ultimate rate of growth will depend on a range of factors, including availability of appropriate scale and type of retail, commercial and industrial land and floorspace. Activity centres will play an important role in accommodating this growth, given that more than half of Banyule’s employment is currently based in the six major activity centres. • Employment projections at the regional level forecast significant jobs growth for Melbourne’s north. Despite continued decline in manufacturing employment, a number of key industries which are more likely to be located within Activity Centres are expected to grow over the next 20 years, especially in industries requiring office space (such as professional services), retail shopfronts (retail and food services) and larger institutions (including healthcare and education); • Although employment growth in recent years in industries requiring land in activity centres has been mixed, population growth – especially that driven by apartment development within and adjacent to existing activity centres – is expected to underpin demand for retail and commercial floorspace growth across the municipality. Estimates of floorspace requirements include: • Retail and accommodation floorspace: 49,000sqm to 72,000sqm (base population scenario); and • Commercial floorspace: 69,000 sqm (excluding health care). • Health floorspace: 140,000 – 200,000sqm. • Continued investment and growth in the health sector will be the key driver for future floorspace demand. Growth will be highly dependent on government policy and funding decision-making.

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Although not all of the floorspace requirements will need to be met within activity centres, currently 70% of retail floorspace and 66% of commercial floorspace is located within the boundaries of the six largest activity centres in Banyule, demonstrating that there is likely to be significant pressure over the next 20 years to accommodate this scale of floorspace demand within existing centres. It is important that the activity centre strategy encourages the attraction of new retailers, including supermarkets where demand warrants, to ensure that escape expenditure does not increase over time and mitigate against the risk of declining retail performance of some centres. It is also important to encourage the provision of commercial office floorspace to meet demand from small to medium businesses over the period, and to continue to facilitate growth in the significant health sector as a major driver of the Banyule economy.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 69 CITY OF BANYULE

8. SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

8.1. INTRODUCTION

Population growth over the next 20 years will increase demand on a range of infrastructure, particularly social infrastructure. Many social infrastructure assets are located within or near activity centres. This section provides a high-level assessment of current and future provision of social infrastructure in Banyule, comparing current rates of provision against benchmark provisions for community facilities.

8.2. SOCIAL INFRASTURCUTRE PROVISION BENCHMARKS

Demand benchmarks for this assessment have been adopted from the previous Economic Baseline Assessment prepared for the City of Banyule.7 The benchmarks are shown in Table 37 for each major community facility type.

TABLE 37 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE BENCHMARKS

Provision benchmark Benchmark for Community Facility Responsibility (population) minimum provision Community Meeting Room/Multi- 1 facility per 6,000-10,000 Council/State/Federal 6,000 purpose hall Aged Care Services/Respite Centre 1 facility per 10,000-20,000 Council/Federal/Private 10,000 Child Care Centre 1 facility per 4,000-8,000 Council/Private 4,000 Hospital 2.6 beds per 1,000 people State 150,000 Library 1 facility per 15,000-30,000 Council 15,000 Maternal Child Health Centre 1 facility per 4,000-8,000 Council 4,000 Neighbourhood House 1 facility per 20,000-30,000 Council/State/Federal 20,000 Preschools 1 facility per 7,500-10,000 Private 7,500 Primary Schools 1 per 7,500 State/Private 7,500 Secondary Schools 1 per 20,000 State/Private 20,000 Tertiary Education 1 per 150,000 State/Federal 150,000 Source: SGS Economics & Planning, 2009.

8.3. PROJECTED SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIREMENTS

Existing social infrastructure assets were audited by Council and provided to Urban Enterprise in January 2017. Full details of the audit are provided in Appendix A. In total, there are 174 social infrastructure facilities located in Banyule, some of which provide for more than one type of social use. Table 38 summarises the current and future standard of provision for each facility type based on the benchmarks shown in Table 37, using the population scenarios of Forecast ID and the Base projection prepared by Urban Enterprise. Two provision objectives are shown: • Maintaining the current level of social infrastructure provision into the future (on a per resident basis); and • Meeting the benchmark provision ratios for all social infrastructure types. The analysis shows that by 2036, there may be a requirement for: • At least one new community meeting room to maintain current provision standards, or at least 13 new rooms to meet the benchmark for provision;

7 SGS Economics and Planning, 2009.

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• At least 8 new aged care facilities to meet current provision standards; • At least 8 new child care centres to meet current provision standards; • At least 5 new libraries to meet benchmarks for provision; • At least 2 new maternal and child health centres to maintain current provision, or at least 20 new centres to meet benchmark provision; • One new Neighbourhood House to maintain current standards; and • At least 4 pre-schools, 5 primary schools and 2 secondary schools to maintain current provision. This assessment provides an indication of the likely scale of overall future social infrastructure requirements using benchmarks only. No information has been provided relating to the quality, size and latent capacity of any of the facilities. A more detailed needs assessment would be required prior to taking any decisions regarding facility provision, including whether the provision standards remain relevant for the Banyule context.

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 71 CITY OF BANYULE

TABLE 38 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION ANALYSIS, 2016 - 2036

Facilities Required to maintain current provision Facilities required to meet benchmark provision No. Current Future Benchmar existing provision over/ Future k provision Current Future facilitie (populatio 2036 undersuppl over/unde (populatio 2036 2036 over/ Future over/under Social Infrastructure s n per (Forecas 2036 y (Forecast r supply n per (Forecas (base undersuppl over/undersuppl supply Type (2016) facility) t ID) (base) ID) (base) facility) 2016 t ID) ) y y (Forecast ID) (base) Community Meeting Room/ Multi-purpose hall 8 16000 9.3 9.7 -1.3 -1.7 6000 21.4 24.7 25.7 -13.4 -16.7 -17.7 Aged Care Services/ Respite Centre 29 4400 33.7 35.1 -4.7 -6.1 10000 12.8 14.8 15.4 16.2 14.2 13.6 Child Care Centre 29 4400 33.7 35.1 -4.7 -6.1 4000 32.1 37.0 38.6 -3.1 -8.0 -9.6 Hospital 4 32100 4.6 4.8 -0.6 -0.8 150000 0.9 1.0 1.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 Library 3 42700 3.5 3.6 -0.5 -0.6 15000 8.5 9.9 10.3 -5.5 -6.9 -7.3 Maternal Child Health Centre 12 10700 13.8 14.4 -1.8 -2.4 4000 32.1 37.0 38.6 -20.1 -25.0 -26.6 Neighbourhood Houses 7 18300 8.1 8.4 -1.1 -1.4 20000 6.4 7.4 7.7 0.6 -0.4 -0.7 Preschools 27 4700 31.5 32.9 -4.5 -5.9 7500 17.1 19.7 20.6 9.9 7.3 6.4 Primary Schools 34 3800 39.0 40.6 -5.0 -6.6 7500 17.1 19.7 20.6 16.9 14.3 13.4 Secondary Schools 14 9200 16.1 16.8 -2.1 -2.8 20000 6.4 7.4 7.7 7.6 6.6 6.3 Tertiary 1 128200 1.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.2 150000 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Art Gallery 1 128200 1.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.2 100000 1.3 1.5 1.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 Museum 2 64100 2.3 2.4 -0.3 -0.4 100000 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 Performing Arts/Exhibition/ Convention Centre 4 32100 4.6 4.8 -0.6 -0.8 100000 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 Source: Banyule City Council, 2016, SGS Economics & Planning.

8.4. KEY FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

APPENDIX A DATA AREA MAPS

FIGURE 20 BANYULE CITY COUNCIL BOUNDARY, LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS, 2011

Source: REMPLAN Map Builder, 2016

FIGURE 21 GREATER MELBOURNE BOUNDARY, GREATER CAPITAL CITY STATISTICAL AREAS, 2011

Source: REMPLAN Map Builder, 2016

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TABLE 39 SA2 BOUNDARIES, BANYULE 2011

Source: REMPLAN Map Builder, 2016

FIGURE 22 MELBOURNE NORTH (HIGHLIGHTING BANYULE), NORTH LINK REPORT, 2015

Source: The Future Workforce: Melbourne’s North, 2015

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 75 CITY OF BANYULE

FIGURE 23 MELBOURNE NORTH EAST SA4

Source: Labour Market Information Portal, 2016

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APPENDIX B SUMMARY OF 2013 PLANNING ZONE REFORMS

In 2013, Victoria’s zoning framework was subject to major review and a series of new and revised commercial and industrial zones were introduced in the Victorian Planning Provisions in mid-2013. Two Commercial zones (the Commercial 1 and Commercial 2 zones) automatically replaced the five previous business zones (Business 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 Zones). This change broadened the range of development that could occur Activity Centres of Banyule. The following provides an overview of the current planning zones relevant to Knox’s employment precincts, and changes which occurred as a result of the 2013 zone reforms.

COMMERCIAL 1 ZONE

The Commercial 1 Zone promotes vibrant mixed use commercial centres for retail, office, business, entertainment and community uses, as well as residential uses at densities complementary to the role and scale of the commercial centre. Commercial 1 Zone allows for a high degree of flexibility, there are very few relevant uses that are discretionary. As it is the zone that allows the widest variety of uses, and due to its objectives, it is generally the zone to be used when the most intensive forms of development are sought and mixed (e.g. Activity Centres). Changes to the uses in the new Commercial 1 Zone are shown in Table 37.

TABLE 40 CHANGES TO COMMERCIAL 1 ZONE

Use C1Z B1Z B2Z B5Z Permit not required * Accommodation Permit Required * Permit Required * Permit Required C Permit not required * Dwelling Permit not required C Permit not required C Permit Required C Permit not required * Permit not required Office Permit not required C Permit not required C C C Restricted Retail Permit not required Permit not required C Permit Required C Prohibited Supermarket Permit not required Permit not required C Permit Required C Prohibited Permit not required * Shop Permit not required * Permit Required * C Prohibited * C Restaurant Permit not required Permit not required C Permit Required Permit Required Food and Drink Permit not required Permit not required * Permit Required Permit Required Premises Tavern Permit not required Permit Required Permit Required Prohibited Retail Premises Permit not required * Permit Required * Permit Required * Permit Required * Industry Permit Required C Permit Required C Permit Required C Prohibited *Some uses nested under this use are subject to different controls. C = use subject to conditions.

COMMERCIAL 2 ZONE

The Commercial 2 Zone seeks to develop commercial areas for offices, appropriate manufacturing and industries, bulky goods retailing, other retail uses and associated business and commercial services to ensure that uses do not affect the safety and amenity of adjacent, more sensitive uses. The Commercial 2 Zone also has a degree of flexibility, however no residential uses are allowed making it effectively an ‘employment-only’ zone. The Commercial 2 Zone replaced the B3Z and B4Z. Although there is little Commercial 2 Zone land in Banyule, it is still relevant to Activity Centres and their development.

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TABLE 41 COMMERCIAL 2 ZONE CHANGES

Use C2Z B3Z B4Z Accommodation Prohibited * Prohibited * Prohibited * Dwelling Prohibited Prohibited Prohibited Office Permit not required Permit not required C Permit required * C Restricted Retail Permit not required Permit required Permit not required Supermarket Permit not required C Prohibited Prohibited Shop Permit not required * C Prohibited Prohibited Restaurant Permit not required C Permit required Permit required Food and Drink Premises Permit not required C Permit required Permit required Tavern Permit not required C Permit required Permit required Retail Premises Permit required * Permit required * Permit required * Industry Permit not required * C Permit not required * C Permit not required * C *Some uses nested under this use are subject to different controls. C = use subject to conditions

MIXED USE ZONE

The purpose of the Mixed Use Zone is: • To provide for a range of residential, commercial, industrial and other uses which complement the mixed-use function of the locality. • To provide for housing at higher densities. • To encourage development that responds to the existing or preferred neighbourhood character of the area. • To facilitate the use, development and redevelopment of land in accordance with the objectives specified in a schedule to this zone.

IMPLICATIONS OF ZONE CHANGES

With 6 major Activity Centres in the municipality, the reforms to the commercial zones play an important role in enabling diversity and development in the centres. Formerly, different business zones had to be applied for different uses. Under the new Commercial 1 Zone and Commercial 2 Zone, there are limited restrictions on the uses that can occur in Activity Centres. Not only does this enable ease of commercial development, but the Commercial 1 Zone also enables and encourages residential uses that complement the densities, scale and role of the commercial centre. Enabling residential development around core Activity Centres is important in managing the population and the demand for dwellings. Investment is also likely to promote office and mixed use development in Activity Centres. Many offices and shops are likely to change use as the role of the centre changes. Under the Commercial 1 Zone, many changes of use do not require a permit, making the ease of change and development in the Activity Centre greater. The changes will, however, create a high degree of competition for sites in activity centres. It is important that opportunities for new retail and office floorspace are provided in addition (or in conjunction with) residential development.

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APPENDIX C REVIEW OF LOCAL AREA STRUCTURE PLANS

THE GREENBOOK: GREENSBOROUGH PRINCIPAL ACTIVITY CENTRE PLAN, 2006

This report provides the most recent full Structure Plan for the Principal Activity Centre of Greensborough. There is a significant focus on greening the area and providing landscape treatments throughout the centre. The plan aims for the centre to be recognised for its community, sustainability and connectivity with a number of new public spaces. Planned construction of the new Aquatic Centre and the Town Square and Walk aimed to increase focus on health and wellbeing of the community. The Plan encourages higher density mixed use developments and the expansion of retail, commercial and civic uses. The Plan promotes consolidation and higher density of development.

GREENSBOROUGH STRUCTURE PLAN REVIEW: ECONOMIC BASE REPORT, CKC 2015

The Economic Based report to review the Greensborough Structure Plan was developed by Charter Keck Cramer in 2015. It provides an update of economic data for the Structure Plan, reviews whether the development of the area was meeting the visions of the previous Structure Plan and investigates the potential for development opportunities. The report highlights the importance of providing new regional attractions to support the economic performance of the Greensborough Principal Activity Centre. Greensborough Plaza records approximately 10 million visitors per year for discretionary retailing and weekly shopping. Construction of Watermarc and the Greensborough Walk may provide additional opportunities for lifestyle activities in the area. The report suggests that the low population growth in the trade area as well an ageing population could impact available household expenditure. Increased competition from large surrounding retail centres is also likely to impact performance of the Activity Centre. Council has proposed its new municipal offices to be part of the Watermarc development, which will significantly increase the number of workers in the area and therefore increase demand for food services and pedestrian activity in the area. It is noted that Greensborough Plaza needs to expand past the traditional activities it is associated with, leveraging its natural attributes and the new regional attractions such as Watermarc to provide a key point of difference to other centres.

HEIDELBERG STRUCTURE PLAN, THE PLANNING GROUP, 2007

The Heidelberg Structure Plan, developed by The Planning Group in 2007 and updated in 2010, was made in response to the Melbourne 2030 Strategy to incorporate the key objective to guide change in Activity Centres. These objectives were integrated into the Structure Plan. Heidelberg Activity Centre was identified as a preferred location for high density housing, retail and commercial uses and community facilities. The centre has good access to public transport with the aim to further the focus on the pedestrian through supporting walking, cycling and public transport. Access for commercial and delivery vehicles is highlighted as important, with improved connectivity required for greater accessibility. The plan notes that there is over 5,500 staff employed at the medical precinct, however, there is little connectivity between the medical centre and the main street retail. Most workers prefer using the larger shopping centre. As of the time of the report, approximately 1,500 people worked in the shopping precinct. Key demographic distinctions between Banyule and Metropolitan Melbourne are: • Relatively low percentage of people born overseas • Relatively low percentage of non-English speakers • Above average household income

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 79 CITY OF BANYULE

• Relatively high level of professionals • Above average qualifications • Broad mix of employment • High level of home ownership. This plan is now 7 years old meaning many of the projections may be out of date.

IVANHOE STRUCTURE PLAN, 2014

The Structure Plan was developed in 2014 following identification of the Ivanhoe area for future housing growth and activity. Aims of the plan include: • Provide diversity of housing choice; • Create a more vibrant commercial hub; • Protection of two storey heritage facades with up to 4 storey setback; • Most residential development directed towards the five diversity areas, with preferred maximum heights of 4 – 6 storeys; and • A more vibrant civic precent with a contemporary, first-class Ivanhoe Library. The population of Ivanhoe peaked in the 1980’s with approximately 11,000 before dipping and only reaching 11,000 again at the 2006 Census. Despite the similar populations, the dwellings increased from approximately 2,800 to 4,400. The centre aims to be more interconnected for pedestrians and cyclists with accessibility to all residents and from public transport, which also aims for greater frequency. New mixed used development aims to accommodate retail dominance on the ground floor, with upper levels utilised by office or residential activities. The building designs will encourage active street frontages. There is scope for up to seven public squares to be developed in the activity centre. This aims to create quality public space for residents and users within urban areas. A range of these areas will help complement a central civic precinct with the Ivanhoe Library and Town Hall. This plan is still highly relevant for the area, and also assists the assessment of the wider region, with understand the direction of growth for an Activity Centre of this size and structure. Major recent investment in the area may mean some of the projections in the plan are under-estimated, however they are still useful.

PICTURE WATSONIA: A VISION FOR WATSONIA VILLAGE, 2014

The Watsonia Structure Plan, prepared by Hello City, provides an overall vision as well as specific design opportunities over a long-term period. It also includes a significant community engagement, to show the importance of residents to the area. The vision aims to combine the best feature of a country village with the features of a city suburb. Watsonia is projected to grow in population at a substantial rate and due to the good transport access at the location, it can accommodate this growth over time. Many of the opportunities encourage the development of a town square, with the encouragement of pedestrian focus for the future of the main street, including access to and from the train station. Long term opportunities seek to expand the retail activity of the area. A community hub is also identified as an important feature that may help reinforce the potential of a town centre. Many overarching key objectives seek to reinforce a unified, local village type activity centre. While there is expected to be population growth, the centre will continue to serve the local community. Being a recent Structure Plan, the vision and design opportunities are still relevant to the future development of the Activity Centre Strategy.

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OLYMPIC VILLAGE LOCAL STRUCTURE PLAN, 1995

The Structure Plan was required for the redevelopment of the Olympic Village in Heidelberg West in 1995. The plan provides a detailed strategy for redevelopment in the area including locations of different land uses. On a 50 hectare area of land, the population of Olympic Village reduced by 12% to 2,641 from 1986 to 1991. The report indicated that the population had continued to fall despite some redevelopment. Much of the housing in the area dated back to 1956 and needed redevelopment. Portions would be privately developed while the Victorian Office of House: Department of Planning and Development would also provide housing in the area. Northland Shopping Centre is located 500m west of the village and another Coles/Target 1.5km north-west. The main industrial precinct in Banyule is located north of the Olympic Village boundaries. Surrounding institutes include La Trobe, as well as a number of hospitals and medical facilities. The report suggests that despite population decreasing, the number of households could be established with decreasing household size. It is suggested the three-bedroom separate houses would be the dominant type of construction. House and land values in the area were very low, making it a place for more affordable purchases. This plan is now very out of date and almost not applicable to the current situation of the area. Recent investment in the area is expected to see housing growth significantly more than the low projections in this report.

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APPENDIX D FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY AND ACTIVITY CENTRE

TABLE 42 FLOORSPACE BY LAND USE CATEGORY FOR EACH ACTIVITY CENTRE, BANYULE

Outside Heidelberg Ivanhoe Heidelberg Rosanna Watsonia Greensborough Activity West Centres Residential 153,168 240,763 427 3,467 228 24,290 7,106,756 Short-term 2,575 - - - - - 1,006 Accommodation Residential Vacant 6,672 8,528 - - - 165 23,804 Residential Other residential ------447 Retail* 19,656 31,580 7,217 4,463 6,320 72,431 58,621 FLG 3,285 5,850 2,126 735 1,964 3,510 9,606 Retail Food Catering 4,858 5,164 1,130 1,151 430 4,674 7,122 Bulky Goods - 172 - - - - 20 Commercial ------2,455 Office 10,334 35,167 534 3,010 694 13,827 25,174 Commercial 305 329 857 160 - - 191 Office

Commercial Medical 4,201 29,239 223 1,059 95 5,695 27,884 Bank 1,451 387 - 534 389 2,068 382 Other 575 8,533 - - 855 - 7,406 Commercial Vacant 2,274 3,826 - - 282 740 1,462 Commercial Mixed Use Mixed Use 114 - - - - - 304 Factory - 8,829 - - -- - 348,112 Agriculture ------70 Heavy Industrial ------Industrial Warehouse 3,900 1,904 - - - - 266,289 Storage ------16,294 Other Industrial 139 3,263 635 300 238 344 1,808 Vacant Industrial - 260 - - - - 3,057 Education and 22,508 21,142 557 - - - 138,998 Early Childhood Civic and 24,244 8,074 1,297 6,440 - 3,708 54,786 Community Leisure & 3,132 7,106 285 694 - 30,675 70,561 Other Recreation Car Park 9,035 33,540 39 - - - 237 Infrastructure - 450 - - - - 7,353 Vacant Land ------Other 645 1,122 20 - - 1,462 499 Total 213,368 380,271 12,514 14,579 11,257 127,400 7,903,405 Source: Banyule City Council, 2016

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APPENDIX E SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AUDIT

Type Centre Name Address 15 Kenilworth, Catholic Homes 15 Kenilworth Pde, Heidelberg 163 Heidelberg, Catholic Homes 163 Lower Heidelber Rd, Ivanhoe East 47 Yarra, Catholic Homes 47 Yarra Street, Heidelberg Airlie Aged Care 33 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe Assisi Nursing Home and Hostel 230 Rosanna Rd, Rosanna Benetas Dowell Court 159 Lower Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe East Chatsworth Terrace 430 Main Rd, Lower Plenty Chippendale Lodge 582 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Heidelberg Clevedon Terrace 405 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Heidelberg Heights Darley House 300 Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg Heights Deloraine Private Nursing Home 18 Adeline St, Greensborough Grace Villa Aged Care Accommodation 4/25-33 Grimshaw St, Greensborough Iris Grange 569 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Heidelberg Heights Aged Care Services/Respite Liscombe House 339 St Helena Rd, St Helena Centre Lower Plenty Garden Views 390 Main Rd, Lower Plenty Macleod Village 46 Aberdeen Rd, Macleod Regis Macleod 118 Somers Ave, Macleod Rosanna Views Residential Aged Care Facility 269-271 Lower Plenty Rd, Rosanna Sir William Hall Hostel 61 Edwin St, Heidelberg Heights Strathallan Community 2-34 Erskine Rd, Macleod Terry Barker Nursing Home Broadford Cres, Macleod The Adult Day Care Centre 16 Bond Street, Ivanhoe The Grace Garden Aged Care Facility 413/415 Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg West Vasey RSL Independent Living Units 172 Burwood Road, Vasey RSL Care Viewbank Gardens 26-46 Rutherford Rd, Viewbank Viewbank House S.R.S. 69 Banyule Rd, Rosanna Villa Maria Bundoora Aged Care Residence 1428 Plenty Rd, Bundoora Art Gallery Businesses Hatch Contemporary Arts Space 14 Ivanhoe Pde, Ivanhoe Abacus Child Care Centre 3 William St, Greensborough Austin Child Care Centre 145 Studley Rd, Heidelberg Banyule Nets Stadium Child Care Centre 2 Somers Ave, Macleod Cheeriokids Heidelberg 8 Sackville St, Heidelberg Heights East Ivanhoe Early Learning Centre 71 Lower Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe Goodstart Early Learning Centre - Bundoora 17/19 Bendoran Cres, Bundoora Goodstart Early Learning Centre - Heidelberg 28 Rosanna Road, Heidelberg Goodstart Early Learning Centre - Ivanhoe 49 Marshall St, Ivanhoe Goodstart Early Learning Centre - Rosanna 93-97 Banyule Road, Rosanna Greenhills Neighbourhood Centre Child Care Centre Community Dr, Greensborough Greensborough Early Learning Centre 9 Campbell Rd, Briar Hill Child Care Centre Heidelberg Occasional Child Care Centre 24 Leicester St, Heidelberg Heights Ivanhoe Aquatic & Fitness Centre Child Care Centre 170 Waterdale Rd, Ivanhoe Ivanhoe Children's Community Co-operative 58 Livingstone St, Ivanhoe Joyce Avenue Child Care Centre 1 Joyce Ave, Greensborough Macleod Recreation & Fitness Centre (YMCA) Child 157 Wungan St, Macleod Care Centre Mission Australia Early Learning Centre 412 Main Rd, Lower Plenty Montmorency Occasional Child Care Centre 58 Gabonia Ave, Watsonia Morobe Street Child Care Centre 229 Oriel Rd, Heidelberg West Platypus Junction Child Care Centre- Montmorency 60/62 Sherbourne Rd, Montmorency Rainbow Early Learning Centre 51/53 Greensborough Rd, Macleod Rosanna Fire Station Community House Child Care 232 Lower Plenty Rd, Rosanna Centre

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 83 CITY OF BANYULE

Type Centre Name Address Rosanna Village Child Care Centre 32 Turnham Ave., Rosanna Skye Street Children's Co-operative 9-11 Skye St, Macleod St Faiths Child Care & Early Learning Centre 56 Mountain View Rd, Montmorency St Hellier Street Child Care Centre 95 St Hellier St, Heidelberg Heights Viewbank Child Care Centre 32 Bannockburn Rd, Viewbank Waterdale Road Child Care Centre 502 Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg Heights Watsonia Occasional Child Care Centre 58 Gabonia Ave, Watsonia Grace Park Hall 135 Henry St, Greensborough Watsonia Community Centre 35/47 Lambourn Rd, Watsonia Macleod Hall 7 Birdwood Ave, Macleod Bundoora Hall 20 Noorong Ave, Bundoora Community Halls Hawdon Street Community Centre 80 Hawdon St, Heidelberg Briar Hill Hall 126 Mountain View Rd, Briar Hill The Centre Ivanhoe 275 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe Old Shire Office 60 Beverly Rd, Heideleberg Austin Repat - Repat Campus 300 Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg West Austin Repat- Austin Campus 145 Studley Rd, Heidelberg Hospital Austin Repat- Mercy Campus 163 Studley Rd, Heidelberg Warringal Private Hospital 216 Burgundy St, Heidelberg Ivanhoe Library 255 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe Library Rosanna Library 72 Turnham Ave, Rosanna Watsonia Library 4/6 Ibbottson St, Watsonia Banyule Community Health Centre 21 Alamein Rd, West Heidelberg Bellfield Maternal & Child Health Centre 96 Oriel Rd, Bellfield Bundoora Maternal & Child Health Centre 20 Noorong Ave, Bundoora East Ivanhoe Maternal & Child Health Centre 1 King St, Ivanhoe East Greensborough Maternal & Child Health Centre 17 Ester St, Greensborough Heidelberg West Maternal & Child Health Centre 229 Oriel Rd, Heidelberg West Maternal Child Health Centre Macleod Maternal & Child Health Centre Birdwood Avenue, Macleod Montmorency Maternal & Child Health Centre 16 Mountain View Rd, Montmorency Rosanna Maternal & Child Health Centre 35 Hillside Rd, Rosanna St Helena Maternal & Child Health Centre 66 Wahroonga Cres, Greensborough Viewbank Maternal & Child Health Centre 92 Lyon Rd, Viewbank Watsonia Maternal & Child Health Centre 19 Crellin Cres, Watsonia Multi-purpose Community Banyule Netball Stadium - NETS 2 Somers Ave, Macleod Centre/Civic Centre Ivanhoe Aquatic and Olympic Leisure Centre 170 Waterdale Rd, Ivanhoe Contact Community Centre Bundoora Hall, Noorong Ave, Bundoora Corner Of Diamond Creek & St Helena Rds, Diamond Valley Learning Centre Greensborough Greenhills Neighbourhood Centre Community Dr, Greensborough Neighbourhood Houses Livingstone Community Centre 1 Livingstone St, Ivanhoe Olympic Adult Education 233 Southern Rd, Heidelberg West Rosanna Fire Station Community House 232 Lower Plenty Rd, Rosanna Watsonia Neighbourhood House 35/47 Lambourn Rd, Watsonia The Centre Ivanhoe 275 Upper Heidelberg Rd, Ivanhoe Performing Banyule Arts Space 14 Ivanhoe Pde, Ivanhoe Arts/Exhibition/Convention Centre Jets Studio 22A The Concord, Bundoora Banyule Theatre Complex 10 Buckingham Drive, Heidelberg Apollo Parkways Pre-School 31 Plenty River Dr, Greensborough Audrey Brooks Pre-School 347 Bell St, Heidelberg West Briar Hill Pre-School 118 Karingal Dr, Greensborough Preschools Bundoora Pre-School 20 Noorong Ave, Bundoora Delta Road Pre-School 15 Delta Rd, Watsonia East Ivanhoe Pre-School 1 King St, Ivanhoe East

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Type Centre Name Address Fairy Hills Pre-School 7 Thyer Rd, Ivanhoe Grace Park Pre-School 179 Nepean St, Greensborough Greenhills Pre-School Community Dr, Greensborough Greensborough Pre-School 17-19 Ester St, Greensborough Heidelberg Pre-School 4 Orient Pl, Heidelberg Interlaken Pre-School 19 Interlaken Parade, Rosanna Ivanhoe Uniting Kindergarten 15 Seddon St, Ivanhoe Lower Plenty Pre-School 1 Para Rd, Lower Plenty Macleod Pre-School Birdwood Ave, Macleod Olympic Village Pre-School 347 Bell St, Heidelberg West Panorama Heights Pre-School 3 Mitchell Ave, Montmorency Sherbourne Pre-School 156 Shereborn Rd, Montmorency St Helena Pre-School 22-28 Wallowa Rd, Eltham North Viewbank Pre-School Lyon Rd, Viewbank Wahroonga Pre-School 66 Wahroonga Cres, Greensborough Warrawee Park Pre-School 10 The Rameo, Bundoora Watsonia North Pre-School 68 Macorna St, Watsonia North Watsonia Pre-School 19 Crellin Cres, Watsonia Winston Hills Pre-School 24 Rohan St, Viewbank Yallambie Park Pre-School 311 Yallambie Rd, Yallambie Yandell Pre-School 1 Community Dr, Greensborough Banyule Primary School 50 Banyule Rd, Rosanna Briar Hill Primary School 25 Gladstone Rd, Briar Hill Bundoora Primary School Balmoral Ave, Bundoora Glen Katherine Primary School Calendonia Dr, Eltham North Greenhills Primary School 29 Mine St, Greensborough Greensborough Primary School 131 Grimshaw St, Greensborough Heidelberg Primary School 120 Cape St, Heidelberg Holy Trinity Primary School 94 Weidlich Rd, Eltham North Ivanhoe East Primary School 35 Warncliffe Rd, Ivanhoe East Ivanhoe Grammar Girls School 123 Marshall St, Ivanhoe Ivanhoe Grammar School 41 The Ridgeway, Ivanhoe Ivanhoe Primary School 124 Waterdale Road, Ivanhoe Lower Plenty Primary School 126-144 Main Rd, Lower Plenty Macleod College Carwarp St, Macleod Mary Immaculate Parish Primary School 9 Rockbeare Grove, Ivanhoe Montmorency Primary School 60 Rattray Rd, Montmorency Primary Schools Montmorency South Primary School 64 Buena Vista Dr, Montmorency Mother Of God Primary School 66 Wilfred Rd, Ivanhoe East Olympic Village Primary School Southern Rd, Heidelberg West Rosanna Golf Links Primary School Interlaken Parade, Rosanna Rosanna Primary School Grandview Grove, Rosanna Sherbourne Primary School Outlook Cres, Briar Hill St Bernadettes Primary School 53 Stanley St, Ivanhoe St Francis Xavier Primary School 90 Mayona Rd, Montmorency St Johns Primary School 55 Cape St, Heidelberg St Martin of Tours Primary School 2-12 Silk St, Rosanna St Marys Primary School 210 Grimshaw St, Greensborough St Pius X Primary School 419 Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg West Streeton Primary School 234 Yallambie Rd, Yallambie The Concord School 411 Grimshaw St, Bundoora Viewbank Primary School Nevin Parade, Viewbank Watsonia Heights Primary School 61 Henry St, Greensborough Watsonia North Primary School 16 Sharpes Rd, Watsonia North

BANYULE ACTIVITY CEN TRES STRATEGY BACKGROUND REPORT 85 CITY OF BANYULE

Type Centre Name Address Watsonia Primary School 240 Nell St, Watsonia Bundoora Secondary College 53 Balmoral Ave, Bundoora Greensborough College Nell St, Greensborough Ivanhoe Grammar Girls School 123 Marshall St, Ivanhoe Ivanhoe Grammar School 41 The Ridgeway, Ivanhoe Loyola Secondary College 325 Grimshaw St, Watsonia Macleod College Carwarp St, Macleod Montmorency Secondary College Para Rd, Montmorency Secondary Schools Our Lady of Mercy College 52 Cape St, Heidelberg Parade College 1436 Plenty Rd, Bundoora St Helena Secondary College Wallowa Rd, Eltham North The Concord School 411 Grimshaw St., Bundoora Viewbank College Warren Rd, Viewbank Waratah Special Developmental School 230 Banksia St, Bellfield Waratah Special Developmental School 230 Banksia St, Bellfield Tertiary NMIT Bell St & Waterdale Rd, Heidelberg Source: Banyule City Council, 2017.

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