Independent Budget Impact Assessment of the 2018 General Election Policies │ Liberal and National Parties Victoria Available Under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 Australia

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018

general election policies Liberal and National Parties Victoria

pbo.vic.gov.au FINAL January 2019

Parliamentary Budget Office Postal address Parliament House Spring Street East Melbourne Australia 3002 Telephone +613 8682 2699 Email [email protected] Online pbo.vic.gov.au

© The State of Victoria (Parliamentary Budget Office) 2019. The Victorian Government supports and encourages the dissemination of its information. The copyright in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) 3.0 Australia licence.

To view this licence visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/au/ Under this licence you are free, without having to seek permission from the Parliamentary Budget Office, to use this publication in accordance with the licence terms. For permissions beyond the scope of this licence contact [email protected] Content from this work should be attributed as: The State of Victoria (Parliamentary Budget Office), Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies │ Liberal and National Parties Victoria available under CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 Australia

Contents At a glance ...... 1

Introduction ...... 2 Purpose ...... 2 Basis of comparison ...... 2

Election policies ...... 3 Summary ...... 3 Analysis ...... 4

Budget impact ...... 5 Summary ...... 5 Analysis ...... 6

Supplementary information ...... 12 Report suite...... 12 Existing costings ...... 12 Judgements ...... 12 Sufficiency of information ...... 13 Application of accounting standards ...... 13

Appendix A — Election policies within scope ...... 14

Appendix B — Medium term aggregate impacts ...... 33

Appendix C — Standard assumptions ...... 34

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

At a glance

Compared with the latest published Victorian state budget, the Liberal and National Parties’ 432 policies publicly announced in the lead up to the 2018 Victorian state general election would have the following independently estimated aggregate impact if implemented:

CHANGE IN NET POSITION ($ million)

Total to 2021-22 1 687

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 -8 4 760 -1 737 -1 328

Net debt level ($ million)

Net debt as a proportion of nominal These policies would result in a decrease in GSP at 30 June 2022 would decrease aggregate net debt at 30 June 2022 from 31 768 to: from 6.0 per cent to: 30 081 5.7 per cent

30 June 2019 30 June 2020 30 June 2021 30 June 2022 22 521 23 062 27 308 30 081

Budget impact by function of government (number of policies and change in net position to 2021-22)

23 General public services 85 Public order and safety 55 Economic affairs 14 Environmental protection 17 Housing and community amenities 41 Health 53 Recreation culture and religion 21 Education 31 Social protection 92 Transport

-8 000 -6 000 -4 000 -2 000 0 2 000 4 000 6 000

Change in net position ($ million)

Interest and Depreciation and Financial leases Draw down on depreciation non-cash contingency adjustments reserves

170 108 — 5 289

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office.

1 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Introduction

The Parliamentary Budget Officer—an officer of the Victorian Parliament and the Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO)—is independent of both the government of the day and political parties. The Officer has a legislative mandate to provide independent advice to all members of Parliament, with complete discretion in performing and exercising duties, functions and powers of the office. Within two months after each general election, the Officer prepares and publicly releases a report on the budget impact of policies that political parties publicly announced before the date of the general election. More information about the PBO is available at pbo.vic.gov.au, including a glossary of key terms used in this report (pbo.vic.gov.au/glossary of terms). Purpose The purpose of a post-election report is to increase transparency to the community about the budget impact of election policies announced by political parties. This report includes election policies announced by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) and the National Party of Australia – Victoria (LNP) from 1 May 2018 to the general election on 24 November 2018. It considers the budget impacts of each policy and their interactions. In preparing this report, the Officer, with the support of the PBO, examined each policy, gathered information, developed financial models, applied conservative assumptions and made judgements to estimate the impact to the latest state budget. Broader impacts to the state economy and community are outside the scope of this report. Basis of comparison The budget impact of election policies in this report reflects the difference between two options: . A base case—the most recent budget update released by the state government under Part 5 of the Financial Management Act 1994 (Victoria), which is the Department of Treasury and Finance’s half year budget update released on 10 December 2018. . An alternative scenario—the implementation of election policies announced by the LNP. Budget impact information is provided for 2018-19 to 2021-22, in line with the base case, and is extended to 2028-29 to enable a better understanding of the impact of policies with medium term implementation or behavioural effects. Contingency reserve The base case includes a contingency reserve established by government for future expenditure that is not yet allocated to specific public sector departments. The contingency reserve includes provisions for: . future cost pressures . growth in future demand for government services . items not yet formalised at the time of budget paper publication . new initiatives for future budgets . urgent and unforeseen events. The total value of the contingency reserve included in the base case is $10 341 million for operating expenses and $9 682 million for asset investment.

Parliamentary Budget Office 2

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Election policies

Summary The LNP publicly released 432 election policies for the 2018 state general election. Figure 1 shows the distribution of these policies across the functions of government. Each policy is also categorised by the costing component that is largest for that policy—revenue, operating expense, asset investment, or no impact to the budget. Figure 1: Number of LNP policies by function of government

100

Number of policies of Number 40

Revenue Operating expense Asset investment No impact

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Note: Functions of government classifications were sourced from the Australian System of Government Finance Statistics; Concepts, Sources and Methods, Australia, ABS 5514.0, December 2015. Appendix A provides a description of each policy, contains a link to its public announcement, and assigns a unique identification number (ID) as a reference for use within this report.

3 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Analysis The LNP publicly released election policies across all functions of government, however the following four functions had proportionally more policies announced: Transport . Road transport makes up around 50 per cent of policies, particularly to build and upgrade major roads. . Around 30 per cent of policies relate to railway transport, particularly to upgrade and extend existing rail lines. Public order and safety . Around 30 per cent of policies relate to law courts, particularly law and sentencing reform. . Civil and fire protection services make up around 25 per cent, particularly lifesaver and firefighting services. . Around 25 per cent of policies relate to police services, particularly the construction or rebuild of police stations. Economic Affairs . Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting make up around 25 per cent of economic affairs policies. . Around 20 per cent of policies relate to fuel and energy, particularly supply of natural gas. . Around a further 20 per cent relate to general economic, commercial and labour affairs. Recreation, culture and religion . Recreational and sporting services make up around 30 per cent of policies, particularly to build or upgrade sporting infrastructure across a range of local communities. . Around 20 per cent of polices relate to religious and other community services, particularly provision of funds to community organisations, centres and halls.

Parliamentary Budget Office 4

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Budget impacts

Summary

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

5 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Analysis Change to net position Short term aggregate impact The LNP’s election policies would increase the state’s budgeted net position by $1 686.6 million over the period 2018-19 to 2021-22. This would decrease net debt from $31 768 million in the base case to $30 081 million at 30 June 2022. Figure 2 – Short term aggregate impact for LNP’s election policies

Cost components Major LNP policies contributing to impact ID

. $4 189.9 million increase in revenue Australian government contributions for East West Link 409 and North East Link, Removing 55 congested 428 intersections and High speed rail project 412

$160.1 million net increase in . Independent and Catholic Schools capital fund 307 operating expense driven by: . $2 703.9 million increase in . Decentralisation fund 236 expenditure including interest and depreciation . Road fix blitz 368 . partially offset by $2 543.8 million draw down . Bail law changes 104 on output contingencies . Invest $200m in training and skills 298

. Provide $175m to introduce a range of measures aimed 203 at expanding home care and community support service

. Moving VicRoads to Ballarat 349

. Free school books for students program 306

$2 451.6 million net increase in . Lease out the sewerage treatment business of Melbourne 19 asset investment driven by: Water . $5 196.6 million increase in asset expenditure . East West Link and North East Link 409 . partially offset by $2 745.0 million existing . Removing 55 Congested Intersections 428 unallocated capital . High speed rail project 412

. Building Victoria’s Schools 296

. Extend the Cranbourne rail line to Clyde 353

$108.4 million increase in depreciation

Nil non-cash adjustments

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Figures may not sum due to rounding and accounting treatment of depreciation.

Parliamentary Budget Office 6

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Medium term aggregate impact The LNP’s policies would decrease the state’s budgeted net position by $58 234.9 million over the period 2018-19 to 2028-29. Figure 3 – Medium term aggregate impact of LNP’s election policies

Cost components Major LNP policies contributing to impact ID

$16 504.1 million increase in . Australian government contributions for 412 revenue High speed rail project, East West Link and North East 409 Link and Removing 55 congested intersections 428

$16 883.9 million net increase . East West Link and North East Link 409 in operating expenses driven by: . High speed rail project 412 . $19 427.7 million increase in expenditure . Public Private Partnership (PPP) Build of Lara prison 105 including interest and depreciation . Road fix blitz 368 . partially offset by $2 543.8 million draw . Independent and Catholic Schools Capital Fund 307 down on output contingencies . Mandatory minimum for violent re-offenders 90

. Bail law changes 104

. Blue infrastructure fund 238

$37 583.6 million net increase . High speed rail project 412 in asset investment driven by: . $40 328.6 million . East West Link and North East Link 409 increase in asset expenditure . Removing 55 congested intersections 428 . partially offset by $2 745.0 million existing . Lease out the sewerage treatment business of 19 unallocated capital Melbourne Water

. Level Crossing Removals Reprioritisation 424

$22 185.3 million increase in . East West Link and North East Link 409 finance leases . PPP Build of Lara prison 105

$1 913.7 million increase in depreciation

Nil non-cash adjustments

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding and accounting treatment of depreciation. Appendix B — Medium term aggregate impacts, provides the aggregate year-on-year and cumulative budget impact over the medium term. Aggregate net debt The net debt to gross state product (GSP) ratio is a broad indicator of the state’s ability to fund its debt obligations and medium term financial sustainability. Under the base case, net debt to GSP will increase from 5.0 per cent at 30 June 2019 to 6.0 per cent at 30 June 2022. If the LNP’s election policies were implemented, net debt to GSP would decrease to 5.7 per cent at 30 June 2022.

7 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

The net debt impact is sensitive to the timing of capital projects, largely in transport and education. Where the LNP did not announce a commencement date, the PBO used a standard project commencement date of July 2019. Delays in project commencement or construction profiles would reduce the size of the net debt impact over the period 2018-19 to 2021-22. Contingency reserve impact The LNP identified the contingency reserve as a source of funds to offset LNP election policies. There are sufficient funds to draw down across the period 2018-19 to 2021-22. By drawing down from the contingency reserve, the LNP would use: . 95 per cent of funding not allocated to specific purposes for operating expenses . 100 per cent of funding not allocated to specific purposes for asset investment . around 1 per cent of the decisions made but not yet allocated for operating expenses. The LNP would not draw down from the contingency reserve provision for decisions made but not yet allocated for asset investment. Beyond 2021-22, contingency reserve amounts are not published. Consequently, the PBO has not reflected any funding offsets through the contingency reserve to operating expenses or asset investment. Aggregate impact by function of government Figure 4 shows the budget impact across the period 2018-19 to 2021-22 as a result of implementing LNP’s election policies, by function of government. Figure 4: Change in net position by function of government

6 000 5154.6

4 000

2 000 708.6

-52.4 -85.1 -151.9 -2 000 -533.8 -778.6 -868.2 -1143.9

$ million $ -4 000

-6 000

-8 000

-10 000 -6130.0

-12 000

Revenue Operating expenses Asset investment Total change in net position

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Classification of functions of government are available at Australian System of Government Finance Statistics; Concepts, Sources and Methods, Australia, ABS 5514.0, December 2015. Change in net position figures do not include interest, depreciation or non-cash adjustments, to be consistent with individual policy costings.

Parliamentary Budget Office 8

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Figure 5 shows the major LNP policies contributing to the change in net position by function of government. Figure 5: Major LNP policies impacting change in net position by function of government

Change in net position Major LNP policies contributing to impact ID

General public services . Lease out the sewerage treatment business of Melbourne 18 Water . $5 154.6 million increase

. Reprioritisations – general government 23

Public order and safety . PPP Build of Lara prison 105 . $533.8 million reduction . Bail law changes 104

. Create a new offence of ramming a police vehicle 106

. Provide $89.5m towards a range of counter-terrorism 56 measures

. Establish a $67m Emergency Services and Public Safety 28 package

. Daytime transit Protective Services Officers (PSO) roster 70

. Police in schools 96

Economic affairs . WorkCover dividend 144 . $708.6 million increase . Continuation of the Environmental Contribution Levy 145

. Economic Affairs – LNP offsets 137

. Reduce the payroll tax rate for regional businesses 159

Environmental protection . Establish an Environment Engagement Program 170 . $52.4 million reduction . Recycling strategy: residual funding 175

Housing and community amenities . Convert the St Kilda Triangle from a carpark into a 181 community and family park with an underground carpark . $85.1 million reduction

. Introduce measures to fast-track completion of Precinct 183 Structure Plans

Health . Build the Stage Two upgrade of the Warrnambool Base 234 Hospital . $778.6 million reduction

. Build a new West Gippsland Hospital in Narracan 235

. Provide $175m to introduce a range of measures aimed at 203 expanding home care and community support service

. Provide an additional $140m to palliative care services and 220 training

Recreation, culture and religion . Decentralisation Fund 236 . $868.2 million reduction . Grassroots Sport Revival Fund 237

9 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Change in net position Major LNP policies contributing to impact ID

. Provide $128m to complete the Geelong Performing Arts 256 Centre

. Blue Infrastructure Fund 238

Education . Building Victoria's Schools 296 . $1 143.9 million reduction . Independent and Catholic Schools capital fund 307

. Invest $200m in training and skills 298

. Free school books for students program 306

Social protection . Provide an additional $1500 to foster and kinship carers 335 . $151.9 million reduction . Provide $58.3 million over four years to implement a range 323 of measures aimed at improving and expanding autism support services

. Provide $40 million over four years to offer discounts for 319 energy efficient fridges and TVs for up to 85,000 low income households

. Victims Fund 340

Transport . Removing 55 Congested Intersections 428 . $6 130.0 million reduction . High speed rail project 412

. East West Link and North East Link 409

. Extend the Cranbourne rail line to Clyde 353

. Road Fix Blitz 368

. Provide $300m to duplicate the Hurstbridge railway line 359 between Greensborough and Eltham

. Provide $290m to duplicate Barwon Heads Road from 358 Settlement Road to Lower Mt Duneed Road

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Note: Change in net position figures do not include interest, depreciation or non-cash adjustments, to be consistent with individual policy costings. Net operating balance impact The net operating balance indicates whether revenue exceeds expenses over a given period. Implementing the LNP’s election policies would increase the net operating balance over the period 2018-19 to 2021-22 by $4 029.8 million on a cumulative basis. In the publicly released LNP State Election Policy Costings document, the LNP allocated Federal Funding for Specific Projects as an offset for asset investment, which does not affect the net operating balance. In this report, the PBO recognises Australian government contributions as revenue, which does impact the net operating balance and leads to a difference when compared with the LNP State Election Policy Costings document.

Parliamentary Budget Office 10

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Interactions across policies The LNP’s election policies were assessed for interactions—where multiple policies have the potential to create different budget impacts in combination than in isolation. Where interactions occur, the policy costings were updated to remove duplication. Operating expense interactions The PBO identified policy interactions for: . Bail law changes (ID 104) . Public Private Partnership Build of Lara prison (ID 105) . Create a new offence of ramming a police vehicle (ID 106) . Reclassify Karreenga Prison (ID 107). These policies interact around the number of expected prisoners and additional prisoner capacity requirements when assessed in combination. To resolve these interactions, the individual policy costings were combined into the Safer Communities costing response, with a single model developed for prisoner numbers and capacity. The High Speed Rail project (ID 412) and the Geelong Metro project (ID 410) policies both involve duplication of track upgrades between Colac and Geelong in order to establish a metro service. To resolve this interaction, the cost of track upgrades have been: . included in the policy costing for High Speed Rail project . excluded from the policy costing for Geelong Metro project. Revenue interaction The East West Link and North East Link election policies both involve toll revenue. It is likely that additional motor traffic would result from the connection of the two road assets, leading to additional toll revenue. To resolve this interaction, the individual policy costings were combined into the East West Link and North East Link (ID 409) costing response, using a single toll revenue model.

11 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Supplementary information

Report suite This report is one of a suite produced to independently analyse the budget impact of publicly announced election policies for the 2018 state general election and should be read in conjunction with: . Independent comparative budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies . Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies Australian Labor Party– Victorian Branch . Independent policy costings of the 2018 general election policies for the Australian Labor Party–Victorian Branch . Independent policy costings of the 2018 general election policies for the Liberal and National Parties Victoria. Together, these reports represent the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s post-election reporting on the budget impact of election policies announced by political parties for the 2018 state general election. Existing costings The Parliamentary Budget Officer did not receive or rely on any existing costings from the parliamentary leader in preparing this report. It provides the Officer’s independent costings of election policies based on information publicly announced by the LNP from 1 May 2018 to the general election on 24 November 2018. Judgements Individual policy costings Each individual policy costing in this report provides explicit reference to the judgements, sensitivities and assumptions made by the Parliamentary Budget Officer in preparing an independent budget impact assessment. Standard assumptions For announced policies that have unclear or no implementation details, the Parliamentary Budget Officer applied standard assumptions regarding policy specifications. Appendix C — Standard assumptions provides further detail. Government debt and interest The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated the aggregated forecast of government debt and interest using long-term historic averages, with regard to the processes used by the Department of Treasury and Finance and Treasury Corporation Victoria. Election policies Parliamentary leaders and political parties use many strategies and communication methods to announce election commitments. Throughout the election period, the Parliamentary Budget Officer monitored and recorded publicly released election commitments through communication channels including parliamentary leader and political party websites, media releases and news services. There were many occasions where an election commitment represented a component of a policy tailored to a specific audience, a duplicate or refinement of an existing policy or a policy principle rather than a unique policy. In this report, an election policy is defined as a statement of a distinct type of action by the government to achieve a specific outcome. The Parliamentary Budget Officer exercised judgement to translate election commitments into a unique set of election policies. To support this, the Officer used publicly released political party financial statements as the primary, but not exhaustive, list of the election policies. The specific language used by the parliamentary leader or political party in election commitments was also used to form each judgement.

Parliamentary Budget Office 12

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

To achieve alignment with each political party’s list of election policies, the Parliamentary Budget Officer undertook the following activities: . Publicly released an updated list of election commitments on the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) website (pbo.vic.gov.au/2018 election commitment tracker) in accordance with advice to each parliamentary leader. . Offered parliamentary leaders the opportunity to: - meet within ten business days after the general election to confirm the preliminary list of election policies attributed to their political party - provide any additional supporting information relevant to producing an independent policy costing that accurately reflected each election policy. . Offered parliamentary leaders the opportunity to review a preliminary confidential version of this report, prior to public release. This included each individual PBO policy costing to ensure that the description, assumptions and policy parameters used accurately represented the construct of their election policies. The Officer thanks the parliamentary leader and their nominated representatives for their contribution after the general election to ensure that their election policies are faithfully and accurately represented. Sufficiency of information There were no instances where the Parliamentary Budget Officer was unable to produce an independent election policy costing due to either the insufficient or unresponsive supply of information or documents by the public sector. Application of accounting standards This report is consistent with the accounting standards that applied to the half year budget update issued by the Department of Treasury and Finance on 10 December 2018.

13 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Appendix A — Election policies within scope

The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s protocols for recognising announced policies are available under the frequently asked questions section of the Parliamentary Budget Office website (pbo.vic.gov.au/FAQ). The following tables display the LNP’s election policies, the primary source of public release and the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s independent estimate of each short term budget impact (2018-19 to 2021-22). Links to the primary source of public release of election policies were correct at the time of assessment, however are not controlled by the PBO and therefore may change. Refer to Independent policy costings of the 2018 general election policies for the Liberal and National Parties Victoria for individual PBO policy costing responses. Table A1: Budget impact of the LNP’s election policies by function of government

Function of government Number of Change in net position policies ($ million)

General public services 23 5 154.6

Public order and safety 85 -533.8

Economic affairs 55 708.6

Environmental protection 14 -52.4

Housing and community amenities 17 -85.1

Health 41 -778.6

Recreation, culture and religion 53 -868.2

Education 21 -1 143.9

Social protection 31 -151.9

Transport 92 -6 130.0

Aggregate interest and depreciation 169.9

Aggregate depreciation and non-cash adjustment 108.4

Aggregate financial leases 0.0

Aggregate draw down on contingency reserve 5 288.8

Aggregate change in net position 1 686.6

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Change in net position figures do not include interest, depreciation or non-cash adjustments, to be consistent with individual policy costings. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Parliamentary Budget Office 14

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Table A2: Budget impact of the LNP’s general public services election policies

ID General public services election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

1 Aim to put all Victorian government banking through the Bendigo Bank Link 0.0

2 Aim to reform General Skilled Migration applications so there is a 50-50 Link 0.0 weighting between federal and state governments

3 Ask COAG to meet in December to discuss reform to migration, Link 0.0 particularly around refugee and humanitarian applications and general skilled migration applications

4 Ban house auctions on ANZAC day prior to 1pm Link 0.0

5 Change government procurement policy so that large regional Link 0.0 infrastructure projects are broken into smaller components

6 Conduct a parliamentary inquiry into public services available to the Link 0.0 LGBTI community in outer suburban Melbourne and regional Victoria

7 Expand the Victorian Business Ambassador Program and establish a Link 0.0 sister-state relationship with India

8 Government departments to use Australian paper Link 0.0

9 Name Parliament House Annex the Sir John Monash Wing Link 0.0

10 Prevention of development of Woorayl street reserve Link 0.0

11 Prohibit the second home allowance for Members of Parliament whose Link 0.0 electorate is within 80kms of the Melbourne General Post Office

12 Recognise 15 October as the International Pregnancy and Infant Loss Link 0.0 Remembrance

13 Re-establish a Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission Link 0.0

14 Establish the Victorian Resource Assessment Commission (VRAC) to Link -6.5 give independent advice on resource projects in Victoria

15 Retirement Housing Ombudsman Link -2.0

16 Create a new Sunbury Council Link -3.7

17 Ballarat GovHub offset Link 24.4

18 Lease out the sewerage treatment business of Melbourne Water Link 5 100.0

19 Fund a municipal review for Philip Island Link -0.1

20 Establish a Victorian Business Office in Jerusalem Link -2.6

21 Establish a Population Commission Link -9.6

22 Establish a Royal Commission into Victoria's fire services in the first Link -13.6 100 days of government

23 Reprioritisations - general Link 68.3

Total for general public services 5 154.6

15 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Table A3: Budget impact of the LNP’s public order and safety election policies

ID Public order and safety election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

24 Provide the Essendon SES with a new light rescue vehicle Link -0.1

25 $38m towards Community Crime Prevention program and victims' Link -28.5 support program

26 Build a new police station at Point Cook Link -9.0

27 Contribute $150 000 to an upgrade of Carrum Surf Life Saving Club Link -0.2

28 Establish a $67m Emergency Services and Public Safety package Link -66.3

29 Establish a Professional Standards Unit for the Fire Services Link -2.2

30 Establish police shopfronts in 12 major shopping centres Link -5.4

31 Expand support for Prison Officers Link -0.8

32 Expand the First Responder PTSD and Psychological Injury Link -4.9 Provisional Support Program, expand those eligible to receive support, and cover treatment while WorkCover is processing claims

33 Provide $1.8m towards upgrades to the Point Lonsdale Surf Lifesaving Link -1.8 Club in Bellarine

34 Provide $12m to build a new police station at Benalla Link -12.0

35 Provide $15m to build a new police station in Clyde North, to be open Link -15.0 all day everyday

36 Provide $16m towards Victoria Police facilities on the Bellarine Link -16.0 Peninsula

37 Provide $1m over four years to the Retired Police Association of Link -0.8 Victoria to expand peer support programs for former members with PTSD

38 Provide $22m to rebuild the Prahran Police Station Link -22.0

39 Provide $28.8m towards the Return of the Firestick, a fire management Link -12.3 program which supports cultural burning practices

40 Provide $2m to fund a business case for a 300 bed Eastern Victoria Link -2.0 Remand Centre near Dandenong

41 Provide $2m to re-open Burwood Police Station Link -2.0

42 Provide $2m to upgrade Whittlesea Police Station Link -2.0

43 Provide $2m towards the refurbishment of the Wonthaggi Surf Life Link -2.0 Saving Club and the Bass Coast Shire's Cape Paterson Bay Beach Master Plan

44 Provide $3m to rebuild Creswick police station Link -3.0

45 Provide $30.7m over four years to convert 400 Custody Officers to Link -23.0 Protective Services Officers

46 Provide $300 000 per year to establish a Friends and Families of Link -0.9 Missing Persons Unit to provide support to families and friends of missing people in Victoria

47 Provide $3m to establish three Mobile Police Stations in Melbourne Link -3.0

48 Provide $5.1m over four years to fit first time offenders of car jacking Link -1.7 and home invasion with GPS tracking anklets, when they receive non- custodial sentences

Parliamentary Budget Office 16

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

ID Public order and safety election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

49 Provide $500 000 to establish a Companion Therapy Assistance Dogs Link -0.4 Prison Training Program at Langi Kal Kal prison near Beaufort and Tarrengower Women's Prison in Maldon

50 Provide $500 000 to refurbish Anglesea Surf Lifesaving Club Link -0.5

51 Provide $500 000 towards the rebuild of Jan Juc Surf Life Saving Club Link -0.5

52 Provide $5m to a Youth Boot Camp pilot program Link -5.0

53 Provide $5m to rebuild Monbulk Police Station Link -5.0

54 Provide $6m to rebuild the Drouin Police Station Link -6.0

55 Provide $730 000 towards upgrades at Torquay Life Saving Club Link -0.7

56 Provide $89.5m towards a range of counter-terrorism measures Link -66.6

57 Provide $8m to build the Australian Volunteer Coast Guard building in Link -8.0 Frankston

58 Broaden appeal rights against coronial findings Link 0.0

59 Ensure firefighters can claim compensation Link 0.0

60 Ensure that police resources are allocated during holiday periods Link 0.0

61 Investigate the possibility of giving victims of crime access to the Link 0.0 superannuation entitlements of offenders

62 Mandatory three years jail for intentional food contamination Link 0.0

63 Prevent people convicted of sex offences from obtaining working with Link 0.0 children checks

64 Reform Victoria’s anti-consorting laws Link 0.0

65 Remove most phone access rights for prisoners Link 0.0

66 Review wildlife protection laws Link 0.0

67 Introduce a range of measures with the aim of increasing the Link -3.6 accountability of Judges and Magistrates

68 Increase opening hours to make Caroline Springs police station open Link -13.6 all day every day

69 Conduct a review of VCAT with the aim that VCAT is more aware of Link -1.0 and responsive to community views

70 Daytime Transit PSO roster Link -42.6

71 Establish a state-wide 13-number emergency response service hotline Link -0.9 to support the rescue of sick and injured animals

72 Extend the assistance period for victims of crime Link -7.5

73 Fund mobile CCTV camera rollout Link -5.1

74 Contribute to the purchase of a new Hino Heavy Rescue truck for the Link -0.3 State Emergency Service in Frankston

75 Make Torquay police station 24 hours Link -16.9

76 Mandatory residential drug and alcohol treatment for youth justice and Link -30.7 child protection systems

77 New Geelong CBD PSO shifts Link -0.7

78 Prevent Craig Minogue from being considered for parole Link 0.0

17 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Public order and safety election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

79 Implement certain recommendations of the Victorian Law Reform Link -7.9 Commission's report on the role of victims in the criminal trial process

80 Commission an independent review of the Corrections Victoria prisoner Link -1.0 day release program

81 Amend the Country Fire Authority Act 1958 Link 0.0

82 Disrespect in court Link 0.0

83 Drive-by shooting offence Link 0.0

84 Drug dealers of serious offences Link 0.0

85 End concurrent sentencing for violent crimes whilst on bail or parole Link 0.0

86 Fast-track deportation unit for foreign nationals committing crimes Link -0.6

87 Fuel drive-off offence Link -2.4

88 Immediate intervention order in cases of family violence Link 0.0

89 Lifesaver drones Link -0.3

90 Mandatory minimum for violent re-offenders Link -19.6

91 New crimes of car-jacking and aggravated car-jacking Link 0.0

92 New offences for non-fatal strangulation, choking and suffocation in a Link 0.0 domestic setting

93 No body, no parole Link 0.0

94 Paramount consideration for the Youth Parole Board Link 0.0

95 Pilot of prison drones Link -5.9

96 Police in Schools Link -37.5

97 Prevent cash sales of cars for scrap metal Link 0.0

98 Remove the right to anonymity for young offenders Link 0.0

99 Supermax prison Link 0.0

100 Victims of crime can access compensation and restitution Link 0.0

101 Victims of Crime Compatibility Statements Link 0.0

102 Victims of crime on Parole Board Link -0.5

103 Victims Support Rapid Response Service Link -1.7

104 Bail law changes Link -164.3

105 PPP Build of Lara prison Link 249.7

106 Create a new offence of ramming a police vehicle Link -76.8

107 Reclassify Karreenga Prison Link 0.0

108 Fund the acquisition and training necessary to provide police with Link -12.4 4 000 new tasers

Total for public order and safety -533.8

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Change in policy net position figures do not include interest, depreciation or non-cash adjustments, to be consistent with individual policy costings. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Parliamentary Budget Office 18

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Table A4: Budget impact of the LNP’s economic affairs election policies

ID Economic affairs election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

109 Aim to ensure that CEWH and VEWH work together to sell surplus Link 0.0 water

110 Ban the sale of products containing microbeads Link 0.0

111 Begin planning the redevelopment of the Geelong Waterfront in the Link 0.0 style of Thessaloniki Greece

112 Develop a capacity share arrangement for the Murray River to ensure Link 0.0 supply for irrigators downstream

113 Develop and implement an Accessible Action Plan for Victoria Link 0.0

114 Establish a freight industry working group to advise on new industry Link 0.0 innovations

115 Establish Victoria's first LGBTI Business Roundtable, to be chaired by Link 0.0 the Premier

116 Maintain current laws and regulations around domestic cat and dog Link 0.0 breeding

117 Oppose a container deposit scheme that would introduce a new tax Link 0.0

118 Provide 15 year mining license extensions to the Fosterville and Link 0.0 Stawell Gold Mines

119 Remove the Renewable Energy Target of 25 per cent by 2020 and 40 Link 0.0 per cent by 2040

120 Require that renewable energy projects of over $50m use 75 per cent Link 0.0 Victorian materials and supplies

121 Establish a $30m Fish Habitat Restoration Fund Link -5.0

122 Establish a $4 million Community Solar Grants Program Link -4.0

123 Invest $9m in a program that will provide Cannons Creek, Blind Bight, Link -6.8 Warneet and Tooradin with natural gas

124 Provide $1 million to help bring the Otama Submarine ashore in Link -1.0 Hastings on Mornington Peninsula

125 Provide $1 million towards a business case into establishing a new Link -1.0 irrigation district in either Breamlea or Balliang

126 Provide $13.4 million towards the final stage of irrigation modernisation Link -10.1 works under the MID2030 project

127 Provide $2 million to develop a LGBTI Tourism strategy Link -2.0

128 Provide $200 000 towards a feasibility study into the build of new Link -0.2 hiking track from Healesville to Eildon

129 Provide $32 million to fund an innovation package Link -24.4

130 Provide $40 million to establish the Grow Victoria: Food and Fibre Link -30.0 Exports Program

131 Provide $5.6 million for a flood levee in Numurkah in Shepparton Link -5.6

132 Provide $6.88 million over four years to establish a new weeds and Link -5.2 pest animal enforcement taskforce

133 Provide $9m per year to the Melbourne Convention Bureau Link -18.0

134 Aboriginal affairs package Link -10.3

135 Cross Border Commissioner Link -2.7

19 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Economic affairs election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

136 Establish a tender process by which the winning energy retailer will Link -3.2 provide discounted electricity

137 Economic Affairs - LNP offsets Link 243.3

138 Livestock and Rural Crime Squad Link -10.8

139 Establish an independent inquiry into farm rates Link -0.5

140 Establish an inquiry into commercial passenger vehicle transition Link -0.6 arrangements and the Fairness Fund

141 Re-establish the Victorian Major Events Company Link -9.0

142 Solar panels and batteries for public schools Link -5.0

143 Put the supply of 500MW of new electricity out to tender Link -3.2

144 Workcover dividend Link 450.0

145 Continuation of the Environmental Contribution Levy Link 314.0

146 Geelong 3220 Link -0.5

147 Extend the stamp duty concession for pensioners purchasing a smaller Link -9.2 home $750 000 to $950 000

148 Appoint an independent chair for WDCAC Link 0.0

149 Change the law to allow wild deer to be processed and sold Link 0.0 commercially for pet food

150 Establish the GAAP grant Link -5.3

151 Expand the kangaroo meat pet food trial Link 0.0

152 Implement a new tendering process for wild dog control Link 0.0

153 Reduce regulation related to wild dogs in Victoria's high county Link 0.0

154 Review the Carryover rules for Northern Victoria Link 0.0

155 Fire Services Property Levy Link 41.6

156 Free zoos for kids Link -9.5

157 Allow new onshore conventional gas exploration and production on a Link -150.0 case by case basis

158 Create a royalty sharing scheme for onshore conventional gas Link

159 Reduce the payroll tax rate for regional businesses Link

160 Support the ban on fracking and on coal seam gas Link

161 Reinstate laws to prevent unions from assembling on sites Link 0.0

162 Reinstate the Victorian Construction Industry Code and a Compliance Link -7.4 Unit

163 Repeal the Labour Hire Licensing Act 2018 Link 0.0

Total for economic affairs 708.6

Parliamentary Budget Office 20

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Table A5: Budget impact of the LNP’s environmental protection election policies

ID Environmental protection election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

164 Encourage greater use of harvested rainwater and stormwater Link 0.0

165 Investigate beach erosion around Port Phillip Bay Link 0.0

166 Oppose laws that would increase the size of local towns in the Link 0.0 Macedon Ranges

167 Provide $200 000 to local environmental protection groups in Knox and Link -0.2 to achieve aspects of the Koolunga Native Reserve Management Plan

168 Provide $3m to work with Bass Shire Council to protect the Cowes Link -3.0 East Foreshore from coastal erosion

169 Establish a new management plan for Wilson's Promontory Link -5.6

170 Establish an Environment Engagement Program Link -22.7

171 Accreditation of transporters and processors of recycled tyres Link 0.0

172 Increase use of Australian-made recycled plastic products Link 0.0

173 Landfill Levy Relief Program Link -2.4

174 Mobile rural e-waste collection Link -0.5

175 Recycling strategy: residual funds Link -15.5

176 Waste to Infrastructure Fund Link -2.3

177 Reducing the amount of rubbish entering Port Phillip Bay Link -0.3

Total for environmental protection -52.4

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Changes in policy net position figures do not include interest, depreciation or non-cash adjustments, to be consistent with individual policy costings. Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table A6: Budget impact of the LNP’s housing and community amenities election policies

ID Housing and community amenities election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

178 Contribute $350 000 towards an extension of the main hall at Link -0.4 Mordialloc Community Centre

179 Invest $2m to fund flood mitigation studies with a focus on flood prone Link -2.0 communities

180 Provide $30 000 to upgrade the Bowen Street Community Centre in Link 0.0 Camberwell

181 Convert the St Kilda Triangle from a carpark into a community and Link -50.6 family park with an underground carpark

182 Introduce a Fairer Water Bills plan that will reduce household water Link -0.2 bills by up to $100 per year

183 Introduce measures to fast-track completion of Precinct Structure Link -27.7 Plans

21 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Housing and community amenities election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

184 Establish a Melbourne liveability index and commission a review into Link -4.4 Melbourne's liveability

185 Change the redevelopment of Markham Estate in Ashburton to provide Link 0.0 low-rise residential public housing in line with the Neighbourhood Residential Zone

186 Introduce new planning rules to restrict property development in Phillip Link 0.0 Island

187 Introduce new planning rules to restrict property development of Link 0.0 coastal suburbs and towns

188 Reintroduce restrictions to planning rules and neighbourhood character Link 0.0 controls for residential suburbs in Melbourne within 100 days of office

189 Remove the bore flushing tariff applied by Melbourne Water Link 0.0

190 Reserve the former reservoir site in East Bentleigh for community use Link 0.0

191 Support the Kyneton and District Town Square Co-op Limited to have Link 0.0 sole access to the Kyneton Town Square

192 Use planning regulations to prevent green spaces in Oakleigh, Link 0.0 Carnegie and Murrumbeena from being rezoned

193 Work with local government to introduce Neighbourhood Residential Link 0.0 Zones with mandatory two storey height limits in certain areas between Mentone and Kananook Creek

194 Transfer school planning responsibility Link 0.0

Total for housing and community amenities -85.1

Table A7: Budget impact of the LNP’s health election policies

ID Health election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

195 Establish an annual 'Health Volunteering' round table for senior health Link -0.1 sector CEOs, managers and volunteers

196 Increase funding of the Victorian Patient Transport Assistance Scheme Link -25.6 (VPTAS) by $35.1m and investigate other ways to expand the scheme

197 Invest $3.6m in rapid HIV testing and aim to achieve the UNAIDS Link -2.7 target by 2025

198 Invest $6m towards a dedicated Stroke Ambulance based at Monash Link -4.5 Medical Centre

199 Provide $1.14 to fund a new headspace outreach program for young Link -0.9 people across Victoria

200 Provide $1.5m to establish the Oral Immunotherapy Allergy Trials Link -1.5 Program at Melbourne University

201 Provide $1.8m to fund a two year trial of a 24 hour medical centre for Link -1.8 Phillip Island

202 Provide $100m to complete the redevelopment of Maryborough Link -7.8 Hospital in Ripon

Parliamentary Budget Office 22

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

ID Health election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

203 Provide $175m to introduce a range of measures aimed at expanding Link -126.5 home care and community support service, particularly for Victorians with chronic diseases

204 Provide $1m to develop a state-wide health workforce strategy Link -1.0

205 Provide $1m to improve education and awareness of rare diseases Link -1.0

206 Provide $1m to support volunteers Link -1.0

207 Provide $1m towards mobile skin checks in Victoria, in partnership with Link -1.0 the Lions Clubs Districts of Victoria

208 Provide $2.5m to upgrade Sandringham Hospital Link -2.5

209 Provide $20m to purchase surgical robots at Austin and Mercy Health, Link -13.3 Western Health and Bendigo Health

210 Provide $24m to trial three new Community Mental Health Hubs across Link -12.0 Victoria

211 Provide $2m to build a hydrotherapy pool at Connect Health & Link -2.0 Community in Bentleigh

212 Provide $2m towards campaigns to promote organ donation Link -2.0 registration in Victoria

213 Provide $300 000 over two years to fund Bush Nursing Centres in rural Link -0.3 Victoria

214 Provide $4.8m for Get Clean Stay Clean Link -3.6

215 Provide $40m towards a range of measures aimed at supporting Link -28.6 Victorians living with chronic pain

216 Provide $44m to Swan Hill Hospital Link -24.5

217 Provide $5.9m to ensure that pregnant women with Type 1 or Type 2 Link -4.6 diabetes have access to a Continuous Glucose Monitor while they are pregnant

218 Provide $50 000 towards an innovation centre at Onemda in Doncaster Link -0.1 East

219 Provide $60m over five years to re-introduce the 'Life. Be in it.' health Link -34.8 campaign

220 Provide an additional $140m to palliative care services and training Link -95.3

221 Provide an additional $1m over four years towards the Community Ice Link -0.8 Action Grants program

222 Provide an additional $4m over four years to the National Centre for Link -3.0 Farmer Health

223 Provide more than $21m to complete the redevelopment of Goulburn Link -7.1 Valley Health, including a residential mother-baby unit, and the planning of an integrated cancer centre and allied health hub

224 Provide up to $40m for an additional 125,000 subsidised car parks Link -30.0 each year for eligible patients and carers

225 Provide up to $7m over four years to voluntary free flu vaccinations for Link -5.5 all children between 6 months and 5 years old

226 Fund a Bowel Cancer Action Plan Link -2.3

227 Make contraceptive pills available over the counter from a pharmacist Link 0.0

23 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Health election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

228 Work with VicRoads and the Organ and Tissue Authority to aim to Link 0.0 introduce a system in which driver's licence application and renewals prompt the applicant to register as an organ donor

229 Local health commitments Link -38.8

230 Build a new drug and alcohol residential rehabilitation facility in the Link -8.7 Latrobe Valley

231 Fund and build a residential drug and alcohol rehabilitation centre in Link -8.7 Mildura

232 Fund operations for the Western Region Alcohol and Drug Centre to Link -3.4 run an 18 to 20 bed residential rehabilitation facility

233 Report on a number of health benchmarks, including hospital wait Link -1.5 times and patient satisfaction

234 Build the Stage Two upgrade of the Warrnambool Base Hospital Link -137.8

235 Build a new West Gippsland Hospital in Narracan Link -132.0

Total for health -778.6

Table A8: Budget impact of the LNP’s recreation, culture and religion election policies

ID Recreation, culture and religion election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

236 Decentralisation Fund Link -369.7

237 Grassroots Sport Revival Fund Link -157.4

238 Blue Infrastructure Fund Link -88.2

239 Community Arts Event and Festival Promotion Fund Link -0.5

240 Community Fund Link -45.0

241 Introduce a pilot to organise compulsory interschool sport competitions Link -0.3

242 Conduct a feasibility study into a Land Transport Museum at the former Link -0.3 Newport Railway Workshops

243 Multicultural community and infrastructure Link -7.5

244 Multicultural precincts Link -8.0

245 Reallocate funds currently allocated to the AFL's Etihad Stadium Link 0.0

246 Change the funding for the Youth Parliament run by the YMCA to $480 Link -0.4 000 over four years

247 Contribute $1.1m to the upgrade of Terang Harness Racing Club Link -1.1

248 Contribute $40 000 towards a new storage shed at Ferny Creek Scout Link 0.0 Hall

249 Provide $10 000 to upgrade Hampton Park's Men's Shed Link 0.0

250 Provide $100 000 to help to rebuild Bayswater Scout Hall Link -0.1

Parliamentary Budget Office 24

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

ID Recreation, culture and religion election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

251 Provide $100 000 to Mallacoota War Bunker Museum Link -0.1

252 Provide $100 000 to upgrade Montague Park Scout Hall in Frankston Link -0.1

253 Provide $100 000 towards the restoration of the Mount Macedon Link -0.1 Memorial Cross

254 Provide $10m to develop a masterplan to buy land and begin planning Link -10.0 a permanent race track for drag racing

255 Provide $10m to increase prize money for greyhound racing and Link -10.0 harness racing

256 Provide $128m to complete the Geelong Performing Arts Centre Link -96.0

257 Provide $130 000 to help replace buses at the Hampton Park Link -0.1 Community House

258 Provide $2.5m to Guide Dogs Victoria towards the rebuild of Arnold Link -2.5 Cook Centre in Kew

259 Provide $200 000 towards upgrades at Cranbourne 1st Scouts Hall Link -0.2

260 Provide $25 000 to upgrade Spring Road Park in Hampton East Link 0.0

261 Provide $250 000 to restoration work being done by the Australian Link -0.3 Railway Historical Society Museum

262 Provide $2m to establish a RSL Building Maintenance Fund Link -2.0

263 Provide $2m to redevelop Mentone Lifesaving Club Link -2.0

264 Provide $33m over two years for thoroughbred racing Link -33.0

265 Provide $35 000 to upgrade facilities at Sassafras RSL Link 0.0

266 Provide $35 000 towards a documentary on mental health in young Link 0.0 sports people, with a focus on Karingal Football and Netball Club in Frankston

267 Provide $3m towards the construction of the first stage of the Link -3.0 Warburton Mountain Bike Trail

268 Provide $400 000 over four years to Victoria's Student Youth Network Link -0.3

269 Provide $440 000 to upgrade Bunyip Hall in Narracan Link -0.4

270 Provide $5.5m to establish the Scouts in Schools Program and the Link -5.5 Scouts and Guides Infrastructure Fund

271 Provide $500 000 to support Joy FM to become an anchor tenant at Link -0.5 the Victorian Pride Centre

272 Provide $500 000 towards a business case to expand Geelong Gallery Link -0.5

273 Provide $60 000 towards upgrades at the Pines Community Men's Link -0.1 Shed in Frankston

274 Provide $600 000 towards a new scout hall for Pakenham Lakeside Link -0.6 Scouting Group

275 Continue the Victorian Racing Industry Fund Link 0.0

276 Develop a Bay Strategy 2040 Link 0.0

277 Ensure fishing licence fee revenue is being used to improve rec fishing Link 0.0

278 Recreational Fishing Tourism Strategy Link 0.0

279 Replace the pedestrian safety on Canterbury Road Bridge in Link -8.0 Heathmont with stronger barriers

25 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Recreation, culture and religion election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

280 Reserve former Gas and Fuel land in Highett for community use Link 0.0

281 Filming in Victoria' locations resource Link -1.0

282 Indigenous Cultural Screen Initiative Link -0.6

283 International Production Attraction Fund Link -11.3

284 Investigate feasibility of sound-stage Link -0.2

285 Provide new funding for 'applied games' developers Link -0.3

286 Review of Regional Local Assistance Fund Link -0.1

287 Review screen industry training courses Link -0.1

288 Conduct a review of Victoria's rural water authorities Link -0.8

Total for recreation, culture and religion -868.2

Table A9: Budget impact of the LNP’s education election policies

ID Education election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

289 Ban school students from Foundation to Year 12 from using their Link 0.0 phones during class

290 Close Federation Training Fulham and build a new TAFE campus at Link 0.0 the Port of Sale

291 Ensure that children who attend kindergarten or long day care are Link 0.0 taught safety awareness

292 Require the Department of Education to publish the vaccination rates Link 0.0 at every Victorian government primary and secondary school

293 Upskilling Victoria through microcredentials Link -0.5

294 School Excursion Fund extension Link -37.0

295 Victorian Curriculum Review Link -0.5

296 Building Victoria's Schools Link -498.3

297 Establish a $20m grants fund for community-driven early learning Link -15.0 programs aimed at preparing kids for school

298 Invest $200m in training and skills Link -150.0

299 Invest $6.88m in Community Language Schools Link -5.2

300 Provide $15.3m to establish the Zero Tolerance on School Bullying Link -11.1 program.

301 Provide $16m to the State Schools' Relief program Link -12.0

302 Provide $2.8m to assist in the purchase of decodable readers for all Link -2.8 state primary schools

Parliamentary Budget Office 26

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

ID Education election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

303 Provide $525 000 to Longerenong College Link -0.5

304 Provide $600 000 over four years to create the Rural Tertiary Network. Link -0.5

305 Provide $600 000 to small education projects Link -0.6

306 Free School Books for Students program Link -106.6

307 Independent and Catholic Schools Capital Fund Link -300.0

308 Reinstate the Gippsland Tertiary Education Council Link -2.0

309 Year one phonics Link -1.3

Total for education -1 143.9

Table A10: Budget impact of the LNP’s social protection election policies

ID Social protection election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

310 Removing temporary housing in Brighton East Link 4.0

311 Establish a $10 million fund to support social enterprises and Link -7.5 employment opportunities for people with a disability

312 Getting Disabled Youths Out of Aged Care Link -15.0

313 Provide $1 million towards The Babes Project, a program for young Link -1.0 mothers who require support

314 Provide $100 000 to St Kilda Mums Link -0.1

315 Provide $100 000 to support Mums Supporting Families in Need Link -0.1

316 Provide $2 million to redevelop the Day Options facility at ConnectGV Link -2.0 in Shepparton

317 Provide $200 000 to Olivia's Place, a family support service for families Link -0.2 in pregnancy or who have a child under 12 months old

318 Provide $4 million to McAuley Community Services for Women Link -2.9

319 Provide $40 million over four years to offer discounts for energy Link -30.0 efficient fridges and TVs for up to 85,000 low income households

320 Provide $5 million in matched funding over four years to build and Link -3.8 expand disability respite services

321 Provide $50 000 to Community Support Frankston, a homelessness Link -0.1 service for people experiencing homelessness and crisis

322 Provide $500 000 to assist Shepparton Foodshare to acquire or Link -0.5 construct a permanent premise

323 Provide $58.3 million over four years to implement a range of Link -41.0 measures aimed at improving and expanding autism support services

324 Provide $6.9m towards an Autism Package - Health and Human Link -5.2 Services

27 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Social protection election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

325 Provide $600 000 over three years to the Gippsland Carers Link -0.6 Association to establish a Regional Carer Support Network

326 Provide up to $610 000 to purchase land and construct a bigger Link -0.6 warehouse for Warrnambool and District Food Share

327 Fund a pilot of Anglicare HomeStretch, to provide a further two years of Link 0.0 care for 75 young people transitioning from state care, aged 18 to 21

328 Provide foster and kinship carers with access to the medical history of Link 0.0 the children in their care within 48 hours of the child being placed

329 Work with stakeholders to expand the Youth Foyers program by Link -10.5 establishing an additional site in Frankston

330 Expert advisory panel Link -1.9

331 Identify appropriate land Link 0.0

332 Increase in property inspections Link 0.0

333 Installation of CCTVs Link -11.9

334 Match Aussie Dollar Drop donations LNP Link 0.0

335 Provide an additional $1 500 to foster and kinship carers Link -42.5

336 Family Violence Disclosure Scheme pilot Link -3.3

337 Priority funding for carers of orphaned children as a result of their Link -0.6 parents being murdered

338 Public sex offenders register Link -3.6

339 Revealing criminal history of teen offenders who commit serious Link 0.0 offences if they commit another serious offence after turning 18 years old

340 Victims Fund Link 29.0

Total for social protection -151.9

Parliamentary Budget Office 28

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Table A11: Budget impact of the LNP’s transport election policies

ID Transport election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

341 Barwon region Infrastructure Audit Link 0.0

342 City of Culture Link -1.5

343 Conduct a tax review Link -1.0

344 Country Women's Association Link -0.1

345 Cranbourne Equine Hospital Link -1.5

346 Create a Minister for Decentralisation Link 0.0

347 Create a Minister for Geelong Link 0.0

348 Hall of Fame Link -9.7

349 Moving VicRoads to Ballarat Link -63.8

350 Reintroduce regional parliament sitting Link -0.5

351 Electrify and duplicate the railway from Frankston to Baxter and Link -37.4 upgrade the Frankston and Baxter stations

352 Ensure a weekday train service arrives in Ararat before 9am Link 0.0

353 Extend the Cranbourne rail line to Clyde Link -300.7

354 Fund a business case to extend V/Line train services from Horsham to Link -4.0 Hamilton

355 Introduce new bus services between Horsham and Hamilton Link -0.3

356 Introduce tourist-friendly coach services to Halls Gap and the Link 0.0 Grampians

357 Negotiate with Great Southern Rail so it continues services to Ararat, Link 0.0 Stawell and Horsham

358 Provide $290m to duplicate Barwon Heads Road from Settlement Link -128.6 Road to Lower Mt Duneed Road

359 Provide $300m to duplicate the Hurstbridge railway line between Link -170.8 Greensborough and Eltham

360 Provide $32m to extend V/Line passenger services on the Link -21.5 Maryborough line, terminating at Donald in Victoria's north west

361 Provide $77m to double rail services to Shepparton Link -43.6

362 Provide $80m for upgrades to the Mildura railway line Link -38.2

363 Conduct a state-wide survey to collect public opinion on Victoria's Link 0.0 speed limits, road rules, and changes that have been announced

364 Fully reverse V/Line travel restrictions for Pakenham commuters Link 0.0

365 McGregor Road Link -23.3

366 Rural level crossings Link -21.3

367 Speed sign changes Link 0.0

368 Road Fix Blitz Link -300.0

29 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Transport election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

369 Strathmerton Speed Limit Reduction Link 0.0

370 Additional car parks in Ballarat's CBD Link -20.0

371 Automated school zone flashing speed sign for Mount View Primary Link -0.1 School

372 Automated school zone flashing speed sign for Mount Waverly Link -0.1 Secondary College

373 Automated school zone flashing speed sign for Sassafras Primary Link 0.0 School

374 Build Bus Shelters along bus corridor in Bentleigh Link -0.3

375 Carpark in Sunbury Link -1.0

376 Complete the Yarra Valley Railway Link -4.0

377 Develop a business case for Gippsland rail Link -8.0

378 Duplicate Princess Highway between Traralgon and Sale Link -7.6

379 Enhance traffic safety in Ocean Grove Link -1.0

380 Feasibility study for a rail link to connect Webb Dock with the freight rail Link -1.5 network

381 Feasibility study into a Great Southern Ocean Bike Trail Link -0.5

382 Ferntree Gully Railway Station upgrades Link -0.3

383 Four year extension of the Mode Shift Inventive Scheme Link -15.0

384 Patterson Train Station upgrade Link -1.1

385 Provide $2m for the Fishermans Bend Transport Study Link -2.0

386 provide extra car parking spaces at Cranbourne Railway Station Link -2.5

387 Remove graffiti and install planter boxes at Glenferrie road and station Link -0.1

388 School crossing upgrade - Elwood Link -0.4

389 Sunbury Pedestrian Crossing Link -0.4

390 upgrade Beaconsfield Railway Station and provide additional Link -1.7 carparking

391 Upgrade pedestrian crossing facilities at Shelford Girls Grammar Link -0.4 School

392 Upgrade pedestrian crossing facilities at Skye Primary School Link -0.4

393 Cranbourne-Pakenham and Sunbury line upgrades Link 10.0

394 Fixing Country Roads Link 60.0

395 Geelong Fast Rail and Airport Rail Planning Link 37.5

396 TAC Road Safety Strategy Link 40.0

397 TAC Towards Zero Link 80.0

398 Gembrook Primary and Pre-school Link -0.1

Parliamentary Budget Office 30

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

ID Transport election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

399 Pearcedale Primary Link -0.1

400 Wesburn Primary Link -0.1

401 Woori Yallock Primary Link -0.1

402 Build the Buninyong Bypass Link -10.4

403 Build the Kilmore Bypass in Euroa Link -20.4

404 Offer a discount on car registration of approximately $295 for Red Link -17.2 P-Platers

405 Ensure Eel Race Road in Carrum remains open Link 0.0

406 Remove level crossings at Manchester Road in Mooroolbark and Main Link 0.0 Street in Lilydale in the first term of government

407 Consultation on bike routes Belmont Link -0.1

408 Duplicate the Berwick-Cranbourne Road Link -47.3

409 East West Link and North East Link Link -980.0

410 Geelong Metro project Link -145.2

411 Great Ocean Road Authority Link -9.0

412 High speed rail project Link -1 720.0

413 Install traffic lights at the McMahons Road intersection at Burwood Link -5.0 Highway in Ferntree Gully

414 Provide $1.5m to upgrade the intersection at Tulip Street and Bluff Link -1.5 Road in Sandringham

415 Provide $20.5m to replace 'dumb' traffic lights with 'Smart Traffic Lights' Link -20.5 around Melbourne

416 Provide $2m to upgrade the intersection of Plymouth Road, Golden Link -2.0 Ridge Drive and Sand Gate Avenue in Croydon

417 Provide $2m to upgrade the intersection on the South Gippsland Link -2.0 Highway outside Lighthouse Christian College in Cranbourne

418 Provide $3m to construct a roundabout at the intersection of High Link -3.0 Street, Clyde Road and Geelong Road in Bannockburn in Polwarth

419 Provide $4.6m to upgrade the intersection of Maroondah Highway, Link -4.6 Yarra Road and Kent Avenue

420 Provide $60 000 to install traffic light warning signs at the intersection Link -0.1 of South Gippsland Highway and Lynbrook Boulevard in Narre Warren South

421 Provide $750 000 to upgrade intersections in Box Hill and Blackburn Link -0.8

422 Provide $750 000 towards intersection upgrades at Balwyn and Surrey Link -0.8 Hills

423 Upgrade the intersection of Maroondah Highway, Heatherdale Road, Link -0.1 and Dampier Grove in Ringwood

424 Level Crossing Removals Reprioritisation Link -75.0

425 Open a second entrance for Windsor station Link 0.0

426 Prahran school crossing upgrade Link -0.3

31 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

ID Transport election policies Election Change in policy net position source ($ million)

427 Provide $70m to Better Bus Services in Melbourne and Victoria Link -37.0

428 Removing 55 Congested Intersections Link -2 015.0

429 Ensure there are no tolls on the Eastern Freeway Link 0.0

430 Oppose the narrowing of Beach Road in Mordialloc Link 0.0

431 Preserve the Rowville Rail land corridor Link 0.0

432 Re-establish the Port Rail Shuttle project Link 0.0

Total for transport -6 130.0

Parliamentary Budget Office 32

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Appendix B — Medium term aggregate impacts

Table B1: Year-on-year medium term impacts for Liberal and National Parties Victoria

($ million) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

Revenue 22.2 779.7 1 443.7 1 944.3 1 717.8 2 065.0 2 323.8 2 161.4 1 728.7 1 511.7 805.8

Expenditure (a) - 64.7 831.0 865.9 1 071.8 1 176.3 865.2 1 062.2 1 460.7 2 687.7 4 470.5 5 001.2

Output - 30.5 872.1 829.2 873.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 contingency (b) less operating - 34.2 - 41.1 36.7 198.8 1 176.3 865.2 1 062.2 1 460.7 2 687.7 4 470.5 5 001.2 expenses (a-b)

= Net operating 56.4 820.8 1 407.0 1 745.6 541.5 1 199.9 1 261.6 700.7 - 959.0 -2 958.8 -4 195.4 balance impact Asset 64.9 -3 545.7 3 877.5 4 800.0 4 307.6 5 323.2 7 697.8 7 721.3 5 442.8 3 692.2 947.0 expenditure (c) less asset 0.0 387.0 708.0 1 650.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 contingency (d) less asset 64.9 -3 932.7 3 169.5 3 150.0 4 307.6 5 323.2 7 697.8 7 721.3 5 442.8 3 692.2 947.0 investment (c-d) add 0.5 6.5 25.5 76.0 98.8 116.0 103.9 215.2 425.8 423.2 422.4 depreciation add non-cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 adjustments less finance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 789.2 - 21.9 - 23.2 7 350.3 14 300.9 - 100.8 - 109.3 lease

= Change in net - 8.0 4 760.0 -1 736.9 -1 328.4 -4 456.5 -3 985.4 -6 309.1 -14 155.8 -20 276.9 -6 127.0 -4 610.8 position Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Figures may not sum due to rounding. Operating expenses include interest and depreciation.

Table B2: Cumulative medium term impacts for Liberal and National Parties Victoria

($ million) 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

Revenue 22.2 801.9 2 245.6 4 189.9 5 907.7 7 972.8 10 296.6 12 458.0 14 186.7 15 698.4 16 504.1

Expenditure (a) - 64.7 766.3 1 632.2 2 703.9 3 880.2 4 745.4 5 807.6 7 268.3 9 956.1 14 426.5 19 427.7

Output - 30.5 841.6 1 670.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 2 543.8 contingency (b) less operating - 34.2 - 75.3 - 38.6 160.1 1 336.4 2 201.6 3 263.8 4 724.5 7 412.3 11 882.7 16 883.9 expenses (a-b)

= Net operating 56.4 877.2 2 284.2 4 029.8 4 571.3 5 771.2 7 032.8 7 733.5 6 774.4 3 815.6 - 379.8 balance impact Asset 64.9 -3 480.8 396.7 5 196.6 9 504.2 14 827.4 22 525.2 30 246.5 35 689.4 39 381.5 40 328.6 expenditure (c) less asset 0.0 387.0 1 095.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 2 745.0 contingency (d) less asset 64.9 -3 867.8 - 698.3 2 451.6 6 759.2 12 082.4 19 780.2 27 501.5 32 944.4 36 636.5 37 583.6 investment (c-d)

add 0.5 6.9 32.4 108.4 207.3 323.3 427.2 642.4 1 068.2 1 491.4 1 913.7 depreciation add non-cash 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 adjustments less finance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 789.2 767.4 744.1 8 094.5 22 395.3 22 294.6 22 185.3 lease

= Change in net - 8.0 4 751.9 3 015.0 1 686.6 -2 769.9 -6 755.3 -13 064.4 -27 220.2 -47 497.1 -53 624.1 -58 234.9 position Source: Parliamentary Budget Office. Notes: Figures may not sum due to rounding. Operating expenses include interest and depreciation.

33 Parliamentary Budget Office

Liberal and National Parties Victoria

Appendix C — Standard assumptions

The Parliamentary Budget Officer will use a political party’s stated policy parameters, where available, to perform an independent policy costing. Where no policy parameters are stated and unless a specific assumption in a policy costing states otherwise, then the following standard assumptions have been used.

Funding profile Policies commence on 1 January 2019, where: . policy specifications state that the initiative will be implemented immediately or within 100 days of the election . the policy is to cease or abolish an existing initiative. All other policies commence on 1 July 2019. Where phasing has not been specified, funding profiles are typically based on similar programs. Capped grants funding is provided in the first year.

Indexation Policies are indexed based on the most appropriate rates: . Social infrastructure costs are indexed in line with the Department of Treasury and Finance’s social infrastructure generic project escalation rates. . Transport initiative costs are indexed in line with budget escalation rates. . Public sector salary rates are indexed based on the government’s Public Sector Industrial Relations Policies 2015. . General indexation is based on actual and projected increases in Melbourne’s consumer price index.

Administrative costs Administrative costs for policies of a smaller scale or similar to existing functions are typically met through existing departmental capacity.

Nil cost policies A policy would generally be considered to have nil budget impact where it: . represents the continuation of an existing government policy . comprises part of a department’s core activities and therefore additional funding is not required . is a statement of intent and there are no associated actions announced . requires a legislative or regulatory change only.

Capped policies Where a policy states a capped funding amount, this is included in the policy costing. However, the Parliamentary Budget Officer makes no judgement about the efficacy of the funding to achieve the intended outcome. Capped funding is generally modelled as an operating expense. Administrative costs and indexation are included or absorbed within the capped amount.

Parliamentary Budget Office 34

Independent budget impact assessment of the 2018 general election policies

Offset or reprioritisation policies Where a policy contains an offset amount—funding from within the state budget used to offset the budget impact of the policy being costed—then the offset is only included in the costing where evidence can be sourced. Evidence must confirm that the funds are available or could reasonably be expected to be achieved through a change to the general efficiency dividend placed on the public sector. Where a policy is a reprioritisation—funding from within the state budget for a policy that is to be ceased — then the reprioritisation is only included in the costing where evidence can be sourced to confirm that the funds are available. Offsets and reprioritisations are not included where the funding source is not specified.

Funds Where a policy is to establish a fund to be allocated to a range of policy components, then all known policy components are included in the policy costing and a remaining unallocated portion of the fund is included to recognise the total cost of the fund.

35 Parliamentary Budget Office