WeBsite of the expeRt Community of BeLARus Nashe MNeNie 1 (‘Our OpiNiON’) AgenCy foR soCiAL And poLitiCAL expeRt AppRAisAL Belarusian Y e a r b o o k 2019 A survey and analysis of developments in the Republic of Belarus in 2018 Lohvinaŭ Vilnius 2019 2 Belarusian YearBook 2019 Compiled and edited by Anatoly Pankovski and Valeria Kostyugova english version translated by Volha Hapeyeva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Vladimir Kuznetsov english version edited by Max Nuijens scientific reviewers and consultants Oleg Manaev, Doctor of sociology; Andrei Vardomatski, Doctor of sociology (noVak laboratory of axiometrical research); Piotr Rudkoŭski (Doctor of Philosophy, Belarusian institute for strategic studies – Biss); Irina Dounaeva, PhD (independent expert); Olga Shparaga, PhD, associate Professor (european College of Liberal Arts in Belarus – eClaB); Andrei Kazakevich, Doctor of Political sciences (institute of Political studies “Political sphere”); Pavel Daneiko (Belarusian economic research and outreach Center – BEROC). edited for printing by Stefani Kalinowskaya The Yearbook is published with support of The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board. © Website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (nmnby.eu), 2019 issn 1822-4091 © agency for social and Political expert appraisal, 2019 © logvino literatūros namai, 2019 3 CONTENTS EDITORIAL FOREWORD 7 State Authorities Nikolai Burov Presidential administration: Nihil novi 11 Polina Makarova Government: Horses in midstream 17 Andrei Porotnikov Glass dome of national defense 25 Andrei Kazakevich Parliament: a period of legislative activism 33 Dmitry Kukhlei local authorities: economic inefficiency and cautious expansion of citizens’ self-organization 41 ForeigN policy Anatoly Pankovski Belarus – russia: War and peace 53 4 Belarusian YearBook 2019 Denis Melyantsou Belarus – european union: a year of unfulfilled expectations 60 Andrei Fyodorov Belarusian-american relations: The limits of rapprochement 68 Anna Maria Dyner Belarusian-Polish relations: Hoping for further development 75 Gennady Maksak Belarus – ukraine: in a security vacuum 82 Sergei Bogdan new outlines of Foreign affairs: review of Belarus relations with asia, africa and latin america 89 SOCIETy Piotr Rudkoŭski national identity: state policy and public opinion 99 Vadim Mozheyko Civil society: Between repression and collaboration with business 108 Valeria Kostyugova Parties and Democratic organizations: ascending and descending tracks 115 5 Elena Artiomenko Mass Media: responses to information security challenges 124 Vladimir Dounaev education Policy: Becoming an outsider 133 Andrei Laurukhin science and innovation: a turning point in the negative trend? 140 Natalia Vasilevich religious sphere: “Minsk split” instead of “Minsk dialogue” 147 Andrei Vitushka Health: a series of scandals without proper conclusions 155 Maxim Zhbankov national stage show: Belarusian culture in the conditional mood 164 Andrei Vardomatski Public opinion: a sense of independence 172 Natalia Ryabova research and analysis Centers: increasing influence at reducing opportunities 179 6 Belarusian YearBook 2019 Economy Dmitry Kruk Macroeconomic situation: slower growth amid price and financial stability 189 Alexander Mukha Foreign exchange Market: in the grip of a deteriorating internal and external environment 198 Vladimir Akulich labor Market: non-market status remains 207 Alexander Avtushko-Sikorski energy sector: nearing a phase of uncertainty 217 Maria Akulova Foreign investment: iCT sector as an example to follow 225 Authors 233 7 EDITORIAL FOREWORD The year 2018 marked a jubilee of Belarusian statehood. on the Day of Freedom, March 25, the 100th anniversary of the Belarusian People’s republic was celebrated. even though the BPr existed for less than one year, from March 9 to December 3, 1918, it is a critical component of Belarusian national identity. Belarus is a young state, although the rada of the Belarusian People’s republic is the world’s oldest incumbent government in exile. another 100th anniversary, associated with the establishment of the Belarusian soviet socialist republic on January 1, 1919, symbolizes the historical drama and non-uniformity of Belarus’s national identity. in the meantime, the Day of independence of the republic of Belarus, the main celebration of the statehood, is traditionally associated with the day the nazis were expelled from Minsk on July 3. only quite recently the Belarusian authorities have embraced Belarus’s “longer” history as part of the soft Belarusization policy. Belarusian Yearbook 2019 is a comprehensive analysis of the key developments in the main sectors of the state and society in 2018. Main trends of the year • Amid preparations for the election campaigns of 2019/2020, economic and political reforms stalled. The authorities focused on maintaining and strengthening “sovereignty”, “independence”, and “stability” within the soft Belarusiza- tion trend. • Contradictions became more conspicuous between the con- servative political headquarters (alexander luka shenko’s executive office) and the economic headquarters (the ser- gei rumas-led renewed government), which tends towards discrete reforms. • Tensions built up in the country’s personnel policy in the wake of the failure to ensure a more compact and efficient state machine. • Control and punishment prevailed in nearly all spheres of public life; the government’s security, defense, and law block 8 Belarusian YearBook 2019 managed to maintain its positions, despite the damage it was doing to progress achieved by other agencies in foreign and economic policies. • The recovery growth of the economy was exhausted, and the private sector is not in a position to make up for the failures of the public sector. • None of the conflicts in Belarus’s trade and economic rela- tions with russia have been resolved, which put additional pressure on the national currency. • Slow normalization of relations with the West continued, albeit amidst procrastinated negotiations on crucial bilateral agreements. • Sovereignty and independence were fixated in public con- science as important values. since 2003, the Belarusian Yearbook project has evolved as a joint endeavor of the Belarusian expert community to compile, conceptualize, and deliver a chronicle of Belarus’s contemporary history. Contributing to Belarusian Yearbook 2019 were independent analysts and experts, as well as specialists representing various think tanks, including institute of Political studies “Political sphere”, Belarusian institute for strategic studies (Biss), Belarusian institute for Public administration reform and Transformation (BiParT), school of Young Managers in Public administration (sYMPa), Minsk Dialogue expert initiative, ostrogorski Centre, Belarusian economic research and outreach Center (BEROC), MaCROCenTer Macroeconomic research Center, Belarus Security Blog analytical project, Centre Ecumena, Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism (kyiv), institute of international relations (Warsaw, Poland), Belarusian analytical Workroom (BaW, Warsaw), Public Bologna Committee, agency for social and Political expert appraisal (Vilnius), and the website of the expert community of Belarus Nashe Mnenie (‘Our Opinion’). 9 State authoritieS 10 Belarusian YearBook 2019 11 Presidential Administration: Nihil Novi Nikolai Burov Summary Throughout 2018, the Alexander Lukashenko Administration was busy preparing for the 2019 election campaign that will generally follow the usual Belarusian sce- nario, but with less emphasis on ‘buying’ votes than in the previous campaigns. The Administration still adheres to extremely conservative views in terms of possible political transformations. Presidential chief of staff Natalia Kachanova was growing more and more powerful. Tensions between the Administration and the government were increasing. Shortages of qualified personnel remained a serious problem. trends: • The full-scale preparation for the 2019 election campaign has begun; • The ‘Vitebsk clan’ in the Belarusian political establishment got much stronger; • There were considerable tensions between the Administration and the government; • The country’s leadership was still experiencing staffing problems, trying to find new solutions to overcome qualified personnel shortages. “No one holds on to power fingers spread. Clenched fist is what holds it”1 in 2018, the Presidential administration primarily focused on the preparation for the 2019 election campaign to ensure a trouble-free re-election of alexander lukashenko for his sixth term in office by means of (a) a further careful and gradual shift of the emphasis of the propaganda rhetoric from socio-eco- nomic development to the preservation of national sovereignty, stability and independence, an issue that, as a matter of fact, has been blown way out of proportion, (b) designing new tools to control the private sector amid the continuing degradation of the public sector and the acute unemployment problem2, and 1 Quote from alexander lukashenko’s speech. 2 Many in the administration believe that growth of the private sector at the expense of the public sector, including through the flow of workforce from the latter to the former, is the main political threat to the existing model. 12 Belarusian YearBook 2019 (c) building a new model of the relationship with the russian Federation. The administration sees a redistribution of roles in the economy between the public and private sectors