2018 REGIONAL COMMUTER RAIL SYSTEM STUDY UPDATE Maricopa Association of Governments | May 2018 MARICOPA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS REGIONAL COMMUTER RAIL SYSTEM STUDY UPDATE May 2018 Page intentionally left blank. Table of Contents ES Executive Summary ................................................................................................ ES-1 1.0 Study Overview ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Background ........................................................................................................... 1-1 1.3 Purpose of the System Study ................................................................................ 1-2 1.4 Need for a Commuter Rail System ........................................................................ 1-2 1.5 Potential Benefits and Goals of Commuter Rail ..................................................... 1-5 1.6 System Study Update Process .............................................................................. 1-6 1.7 Organization of the System Study Update ............................................................. 1-6 2.0 Existing and Future Conditions ................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................ 2-1 2.2 New Information Included in Update ...................................................................... 2-5 2.3 Major Changes Since the 2010 Study .................................................................... 2-8 2.4 Summary of Findings ........................................................................................... 2-11 2.5 Grand Line Corridor ............................................................................................. 2-13 2.6 Estrella Line Corridor ........................................................................................... 2-37 2.7 San Tan Line Corridor ......................................................................................... 2-61 2.8 Kyrene Line Corridor ............................................................................................ 2-87 2.9 Future Extensions .............................................................................................. 2-110 3.0 Development of the Commuter Rail Program .......................................................... 3-1 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3-1 3.2 Development of Commuter Rail Corridors ............................................................. 3-1 3.3 Description of Proposed Commuter Rail System ................................................. 3-13 3.4 Commuter Rail Operations .................................................................................. 3-13 3.5 Summary of Commuter Rail System Assumptions ............................................... 3-14 3.6 Ridership Forecasting Results ............................................................................. 3-15 3.7 Cost Estimates .................................................................................................... 3-20 4.0 Recommendations and Implementation Strategy ................................................... 4-1 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Peer City Comparison ............................................................................................ 4-1 4.3 Phasing Recommendations ................................................................................... 4-5 4.4 Integration with other Transit Modes ...................................................................... 4-5 i 4.5 Siting of Layover and Maintenance Facilities ......................................................... 4-8 4.6 Operations Models ............................................................................................... 4-12 4.7 Governance Options ............................................................................................ 4-16 4.8 Funding Options .................................................................................................. 4-22 4.9 Liability, Insurance, and Indemnification .............................................................. 4-35 4.10 Implementation Steps .......................................................................................... 4-43 5.0 References ................................................................................................................. 5-1 Appendix A: Methodology for Cost Estimating Appendix B: Evaluation of Potential Commuter Rail Corridor Extensions Appendix C: System Study Station Target Area Evaluation Appendix D: Commuter Rail Design Concepts Appendix E: Railroad Conditions and Issues Appendix F: Commuter Rail Vehicle Technology Appendix G: Commuter Rail Operations Plan Appendix H: Commuter Rail Maintenance Facility Description and Evaluation Appendix I: Commuter Rail Governance and Operating Structures Appendix J: Conceptual Memorandum of Understanding Appendix K: Insurance and Indemnity Language Appendix L: Potential Grade Separation Locations Appendix M: One-on-One Meetings with Participating Jurisdictions Appendix N: BNSF Operations Report (Included Separately) ii List of Figures Figure 1-1: MAG Regional Commuter Rail System Corridors _________________________ 1-4 Figure 1-2: Commuter Rail Train Examples _______________________________________ 1-5 Figure 2-1: Arizona Passenger Rail Corridor Study Preferred Alterative ________________ 2-10 Figure 2-2: Grand Line Corridor – Land Use _____________________________________ 2-17 Figure 2-3: Grand Line Corridor – Railroad Facilities ______________________________ 2-23 Figure 2-4: Grand Line Corridor – Peak Period Travel Characteristics _________________ 2-29 Figure 2-5: Grand Line Corridor – Transit Services ________________________________ 2-33 Figure 2-6: Estrella Line Corridor – Land Use ____________________________________ 2-41 Figure 2-7: Estrella Line Corridor – Railroad Facilities _____________________________ 2-47 Figure 2-8: Estrella Line Corridor – Peak Period Travel Characteristics ________________ 2-53 Figure 2-9: Estrella Line Corridor – Transit Services _______________________________ 2-57 Figure 2-10: San Tan Line Corridor – Land Use __________________________________ 2-65 Figure 2-11: San Tan Line Corridor – Railroad Facilities ____________________________ 2-73 Figure 2-12: San Tan Line Corridor – Peak Period Travel Characteristics ______________ 2-79 Figure 2-13: San Tan Line Corridor – Transit Services _____________________________ 2-83 Figure 2-14: Kyrene Line Corridor – Land Use ___________________________________ 2-91 Figure 2-15: Kyrene Line Corridor – Railroad Facilities _____________________________ 2-97 Figure 2-16: Kyrene Line Corridor – Peak Period Travel Characteristics ______________ 2-103 Figure 2-17: Kyrene Line Corridor – Transit Services _____________________________ 2-107 Figure 2-18: Future Commuter Rail Extensions and Conceptual Station Area Locations __ 2-111 Figure 3-1: MAG Regional Commuter Rail System Corridors _________________________ 3-2 Figure 3-2: MAG Commuter Rail System Study Update Station Areas __________________ 3-7 Figure 3-3: MAG Commuter Rail System 2040 Daily Boardings by Station _____________ 3-17 Figure 3-4: MAG Commuter Rail System Potential Ridership to Extension Areas of Wickenburg and San Tan Valley _______________________________________ 3-18 Figure 3-5: Tempe Elevated Bypass and Trench Options ___________________________ 3-21 Figure 3-6: Gilbert Trench Option _____________________________________________ 3-22 Figure 3-7: Phoenix Union Station Track Layout from 2010 Study ____________________ 3-27 Figure 4-1: Capital Cost per Mile (in 2017 Dollars) _________________________________ 4-3 Figure 4-2: Boardings per Revenue Mile Comparison _______________________________ 4-4 Figure 4-3: Annual O&M Cost per Passenger Trip _________________________________ 4-4 Figure 4-4: Existing and Planned Transit Modes in Downtown Phoenix _________________ 4-6 Figure 4-5: Typical Layover/Trail Track Facility ___________________________________ 4-10 Figure 4-6: Typical CRMF Site Layout __________________________________________ 4-10 Figure 4-7: Potential Commuter Rail Maintenance and/or Layover Facility Locations _____ 4-11 Figure 4-8: Limitations on Passenger Transportation Liability ________________________ 4-39 iii List of Tables Table 2-1: Grand Line Corridor Population Change (2015 – 2040) ____________________ 2-14 Table 2-2: Grand Line Corridor Employment Change (2015 – 2040) __________________ 2-14 Table 2-3: Grand Line Corridor Existing and Future Land Use _______________________ 2-15 Table 2-4: Grand Line Corridor Recent and Future Roadway Improvements ____________ 2-25 Table 2-5: Grand Line AM Peak Period Travel Characteristics (2015 – 2040) ___________ 2-26 Table 2-6: Grand Line PM Peak Period Travel Characteristics (2015 – 2040) ___________ 2-27 Table 2-7: Home-Based Work Trips Originating within the Grand Line Corridor __________ 2-35 Table 2-8: Estrella Line Corridor Population Change (2015 – 2040) ___________________ 2-37 Table 2-9: Estrella Line Corridor Employment Change (2015 – 2040) _________________