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IEA Wind TCP Task 26: Wind Technology, Cost and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, the European Union, and the United States: 2007–2012

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IEA Wind TCP Task 26: Wind Technology, Cost and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, the European Union, and the United States: 2007–2012 November 2018 IEA Wind TCP Task 26 Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States: 2008-2016 Technical report A iea wind NOTICE This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Funding provided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Prepared for the IEA Wind TCP November 2018 Authors: Alberto Dalla Riva and János Hethey Ea Energy Analyses Silke Lüers, Anna-Kathrin Wallasch, and Knud Rehfeldt Deutsche WindGuard GmbH Aidan Duffy Dublin Institute of Technology David Edward Weir Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate Maria Stenkvist Swedish Energy Agency Andreas Uihlein Joint Research Centre, European Commission Tyler Stehly and Eric Lantz National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ryan Wiser Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Edited by M. Maureen Hand, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Suggested citation: Hand, M.M., ed. 2018. IEA Wind TCP Task 26‒Wind Technology, Cost, and Performance Trends in Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Union, and the United States: 2008‒2016. NREL/TP-6A20-71844. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (US). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/71844.pdf. IEA Wind TCP functions within a framework created by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Views, findings, and publications of IEA Wind do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or of all its individual member countries. IEA Wind is part of IEA’s Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP). iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Acknowledgments This report has been sponsored by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Implementing Agreement (part of the Technology Collaboration Programme) for Co-operation in the Research, Development, and Deployment of Wind Energy Systems (IEA Wind TCP), and funded by the respective entities in the participating countries of Task 26, The Cost of Wind Energy, including Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, the European Commission, and the United States. The authors of this report would like to thank the IEA Wind TCP Executive Committee members for supporting this work, particularly those members who sponsor the corresponding research in each of the participating countries. IEA was founded in 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to collaborate on international energy programs and carry out a comprehensive program about energy among member countries. The authors are grateful to the reviewers of specific country chapters or of the entire report who provided valuable insights and input including Thomas Telsnig (European Commission), Karsten Capion (Danish Energy Association), Aisma Vitina (Danish Energy Agency),Volker Berkhout (Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economy and Energy System Technology), Klaus Hammes and Pierre-Jean Rigole (Swedish Energy Agency), Paul Schwabe (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), Daniel Beals (Allegheny Science and Technology, contractor to the U.S. Department of Energy), and John McCann (Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland). We also thank Sheri Anstedt at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for editing and formatting the report for publication. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Nomenclature or List of Acronyms AVG average BEAT Base erosion anti-abuse tax BImSchG Bundes-Immissionsschutzgesetz (Federal Immission Control Act) BNEF Bloomberg New Energy Finance BNetzA Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency) BWE Bundesverband WindEnergie (German Wind Energy Association) CapEx capital expenditure DOE U.S. Department of Energy EEG Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (Renewable Energy Sources Act) EEX European Energy Exchange EMHIRES European Meteorological derived high resolution renewable energy source EPEX European Power Exchange ETS Emissions Trading System EU European Union FIT feed-in tariff FIP feed-in premium FLH full load hours IEC International Electrotechnical Commission ITC investment tax credit GW gigawatt IEA International Energy Agency JRC Joint Research Centre kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LCOE levelized cost of energy m meters MACRS Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NVE Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate O&M operation and maintenance OpEx operational expenditure PPA power purchase agreement PTC production tax credit REFIT renewable energy feed-in tariff SEA Swedish Energy Agency SEM single electricity market SMP system marginal price v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. TSO transmission system operator TWh terawatt-hour ÜNB Übertragungsnetzbetreiber (transmission system operator) VDMA Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (Mechanical Engineering Industry Association) WACC weighted average cost of capital yr year vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Table of Contents 1 Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 Denmark ................................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Wind Energy Development in Denmark ....................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Domestic Wind Energy Capacity, Production, and Targets ............................................. 5 2.1.2 Revenue and Policy Incentives ........................................................................................ 7 2.2 Wind Energy Project Trends in Denmark Since 2008 .................................................................. 9 2.3 Cost of Wind Energy Generation in Denmark Since 2008 ......................................................... 10 2.3.1 Sources and Assumptions ............................................................................................... 10 2.3.2 Trends Since 2008 .......................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Wind Energy in the Danish Electricity Market ........................................................................... 14 2.4.1 Trends Since 2008 .......................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Expectations for the Future ............................................................................................ 17 2.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 18 3 Germany .............................................................................................................................................. 20 3.1 Wind Energy Development in Germany ..................................................................................... 20 3.1.1 Domestic Wind Energy Capacity, Production, and Targets ........................................... 20 3.1.2 Revenue and Policy Incentives ...................................................................................... 22 3.2 Wind Energy Project Trends in Germany Since 2008 ................................................................ 23 3.3 Cost of Wind Energy Generation in Germany Since 2008 ......................................................... 25 3.3.1 Sources and Assumptions ............................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 Trends Since 2008 .......................................................................................................... 27 3.4 Wind Energy in the German Electricity Market.......................................................................... 29 3.4.1 Trends Since 2008 .......................................................................................................... 29 3.4.2 Tender Results and Expectations for the Future ............................................................ 30 3.5 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 32 4 Ireland .................................................................................................................................................
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