Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes, & Pears): World Markets

United States Department of Agriculture Fresh Deciduous Fruit (Apples, Grapes,

Foreign Agricultural & Pears): World Markets and Trade Service June 2015

FRESH APPLES

World apple production in 2014/15 is estimated to World Apple Export Decline Driven by China and Chile decrease slightly from last year, down 1 percent to 70.9 million metric tons (tons), as declines in China 6 and Turkey more than offset gains in the European 5 Union (EU) and the United States. Global trade is China Chile Tons forecast to decrease 3 percent primarily as a result 4 Other of Russia’s continued ban on fruit from certain Metric countries. 3

Million Russia’s production is forecast to increase nearly 2 10 percent to 1.6 million tons due in part to higher 1 yields from renovated orchards. Beginning in

August 2014, Russia banned imports of fruit from 0 certain countries, causing trade to plummet 33 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 percent to 800,000 tons. Despite this, Russia remains the top importing country.

EU’s production is forecast to increase 11 percent Russia’s Apple Imports Decline Due to Ban to 13.3 million tons due to gains in Poland. Despite 1,400 Russia’s ban, exports are forecast to increase 6 percent to 1.7 million tons on stronger shipments to 1,200 Tons new and existing markets in Eastern Europe, the 1,000 Middle East, and North Africa. Imports are Metric expected to decrease 22 percent to 485,000 tons as 800 record production saturates the domestic market.

Thousand 600

United States production is forecast to increase 9 400 percent to 5.1 million tons on a record harvest in Washington, the top growing state. Exports are 200 forecast to increase 10 percent to 930,000 tons on 0 continued strong demand from Mexico, while 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 imports are expected to decrease 13 percent to 185,000 tons.

Chile’s production is forecast to decrease 8 percent to 1.2 million tons due to a late spring frost in the major apple producing regions, which also lowered fruit quality. As a result of lower exportable supplies, shipments are expected to decrease 16 percent to 740,000 tons.

China’s production is forecast to decrease 5 percent to 37.8 million tons as yields fall in key provinces due to low temperatures and heavy rains during the blossom period which was followed by drought.

To receive the circular via email, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new ______Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA Processing is expected to decline nearly 20 percent due to lower production. As a result of lower availability, rising prices have made exports less competitive.

Argentina’s production is forecast at a low 640,000 Argentina Apple Exports Continue Trending Lower tons due to hail damage and large volumes of unharvested product as a result of labor issues and 300

rising input costs. Exports are forecast to decline 250 Tons

slightly to 140,000 tons. 200 Metric Mexico’s production is forecast at 670,000 tons after 150 last year’s record crop. To satisfy demand, imports Thousand are forecast to increase 23 percent to 280,000 tons on 100 strong shipments of U.S. product. 50

New Zealand’s apple production is forecast to 0 increase to 540,000 tons, growth of 11 percent as on- year production and new trees coming into production counter the losses caused by hail. Hail- damaged product will increase the amount going into processing, leaving exports relatively flat at 315,000 tons.

South Africa’s apple production is expected to increase 13 percent to 900,000 tons as new trees come into production. Exports are expected to parallel production, increasing 10 percent to 420,000 tons.

Turkey’s production is forecast to drop 22 percent to 2.3 million tons due to frost which damaged the fruit set. As a result of lower availability, exports are expected drop nearly 50 percent to 100,000 tons.

Beginning with this report, Belarus was added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for apples back to marketing year 2001/02.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis FRESH TABLE GRAPES

World table grape production is forecast at 20.6 World Table Grape Export Growth Driven by Chile and Turkey million tons, a modest increase of 2 percent over last year, as gains in China, and to a lesser extent 3,000 Chile, more than offset losses in the EU and 2,500 Turkey. Global exports are expected to continue Tons expanding, with 3 percent growth driven by Chile 2,000

and Turkey. Metric Turkey 1,500 Chile China’s production is forecast to increase 11 Other Thousand percent to 9.0 million tons as harvested area 1,000 continues to expand. Though the vast majority of 500 grapes are consumed domestically, exports are forecast up 25 percent to 130,000 tons. Imports 0 are expected to decrease slightly to 225,000 tons, 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/16 as lower shipments from Chile and the United States more than offset higher shipments from Peru. On January 1, 2015, the import tariff applied to product from Peru dropped to zero.

United States production is forecast to decrease 9 percent to 920,000 tons as California’s crop suffered hail damage during the bloom and drought continues to be a concern for many of these growers. Exports decreased 6 percent to 391,000 tons on decreased shipments to top markets Canada, Mexico, and Hong Kong. Imports increased 5 percent to 547,000 tons on increases from Chile and Peru.

Chile’s grape production is forecast up 14 percent to 1.2 million tons despite drought in some grape growing regions. As a result of increased available supply, exports are expected to rebound to 830,000 tons.

EU’s production is forecast to decrease 16 percent to 1.6 million tons as area harvested continues to decline. Exports are forecast to drop 34 percent to 100,000 tons driven by the Russian ban. Imports are forecast to increase slightly to 580,000 tons on higher shipments from South Africa.

Turkey’s production is forecast to decrease 13 Peru Exports Continue Gaining Ground Against Competition

percent, to 1.9 million tons, due to hail and frost 900

in the spring, which was followed by heavy 800 rains during the bloom. Exports are forecast up 700 Tons 27 percent to 260,000 tons on increased shipments to Russia and Belarus. 600

Metric Chile

500 United States South Africa Peru’s production is forecast to increase 8 400 percent to 540,000 tons as growth continues to Thousand Peru 300 Turkey be driven by foreign demand. Exports are forecast to gain 9 percent to 290,000 tons as 200 market share continues to rise in Asia, the EU, 100 and the United States. ‐ 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Argentina’s production is forecast to rebound 86 percent to 130,000 tons on favorable growing conditions, in sharp contrast to last year’s crop that was devastated by frost. Exports are forecast to increase to 22,000 tons on increased exportable supplies.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis Russia’s production is forecast to increase nearly 10 percent to 80,000 tons. Imports are expected to remain flat at 325,000 tons as supplies from banned countries are largely offset by imports from Turkey.

Beginning with this report, the following countries were added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for grapes back to marketing year 2001/02: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Switzerland, Thailand.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis FRESH PEARS

World pear production is forecast to increase 4 After Years of Growth, World Pear Exports Continue Declining percent to 24.2 million tons on increased production in China. Global trade is forecast 2,000 down 6 percent driven by lower shipments from 1,800 1,600

Argentina, the EU, and the United States. Tons

1,400 Metric Russia’s production is forecast to increase 3 1,200 percent to 150,000 tons due to favorable 1,000 weather. Imports are expected to drop 33 Thousand 800 percent to 275,000 tons due to the August 2014 600 Russian ban on fruit imports from certain 400 countries, which affects primarily the EU. 200 Imports from other countries, such as Belarus, ‐ China, and South Africa, are expected to only partially offset these losses.

China’s production is forecast to continue expanding, increasing 7 percent to a record 18.5 million tons on increased plantings. Exports are expected to rise 9 percent to 325,000 tons driven largely by shipments to Russia.

United States production is forecast to decrease 8 percent to 732,000 tons on lower yields in major producing states. With lower output, exports are forecast to decrease 14 percent to 175,000 tons, and imports are forecast up 10 percent to 90,000 tons, while fresh consumption is nearly unchanged.

EU’s production is forecast flat at 2.4 million tons as higher yields offset less area. Exports are forecast to decrease 10 percent to 425,000 tons as continued effects of Russia’s ban are partially offset by gains in Eastern Europe and North Africa. Imports are expected to decrease 10 percent to 230,000 tons on lower demand.

Argentina’s production is forecast to decline 12 percent to 610,000 tons due to hail damage and large volumes of unharvested product as a result of labor issues and rising input costs. Exports are forecast to follow suit, decreasing 17 percent to 340,000 tons.

Chile’s pear production is forecast to rebound 9 percent to 290,000 tons on favorable growing conditions. Exports are forecast to increase 11 percent to 130,000 tons.

South Africa’s production is forecast to decrease 6 percent to 390,000 tons as a result of hail damage. A modest decrease is forecast for exports, down 4 percent to 200,000 tons.

Beginning with this report, Belarus was added to the Production, Supply and Distribution database for pears back to marketing year 2001/02.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis For additional information, please contact Elaine Protzman at 202-720-5588, or [email protected]

For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new To download additional data tables, go to Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx), scroll down to Reports, and Click the plus sign [+] next to Fruits and Vegetables, and click on tables for apples, fresh grapes, and pears. For FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx and click on Deciduous Fruit. For archives World Market and Trade Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1776 For Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx For the Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx For Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Marketing Years:

Apples - The United States and Mexico are on an Aug-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Table Grapes - The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Pears - Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis Apple Summary (1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec Jun 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15

Production none China 33,263 35,985 38,500 39,680 37,800 37,800 European Union 10,981 12,338 12,207 11,974 13,300 13,300 United States 4,175 4,231 4,049 4,673 4,877 5,079 Turkey 2,500 2,700 2,900 2,900 2,250 2,250 India 2,891 2,203 1,915 2,200 2,200 2,200 Russia 910 1,124 1,264 1,416 1,550 1,550 Brazil 1,339 1,336 1,335 1,335 1,335 1,335 Chile 1,431 1,360 1,420 1,310 1,410 1,200 Ukraine 954 1,127 1,120 1,120 1,120 1,120 South Africa 767 813 908 793 910 900 Other 4,314 4,567 4,047 4,359 4,081 4,160 Total 63,525 67,784 69,665 71,759 70,833 70,894 Fresh Dom. Consumption none China 26,490 30,647 32,317 34,861 33,810 33,948 European Union 7,508 8,072 7,933 8,044 8,664 8,123 United States 2,157 2,195 2,293 2,482 2,658 2,737 India 2,985 2,381 2,087 2,366 2,370 2,340 Turkey 2,325 2,517 2,762 2,609 2,112 2,054 Russia 1,533 1,564 1,947 2,046 1,750 1,750 Brazil 1,224 1,112 1,160 1,225 1,245 1,195 Other 6,334 7,030 6,820 7,113 6,364 7,332 Total 50,554 55,517 57,319 60,746 58,974 59,480 For Processing none European Union 2,973 3,281 3,273 2,950 3,868 3,900 China 5,760 4,400 5,200 3,850 3,150 3,150 United States 1,341 1,368 1,058 1,561 1,534 1,597 Russia 458 721 570 491 515 515 Chile 434 403 392 295 380 380 South Africa 216 215 246 200 295 270 Argentina 500 450 420 250 520 220 Other 819 870 754 834 831 831 Total 12,500 11,708 11,912 10,431 11,092 10,863 Imports none Russia 1,111 1,201 1,338 1,203 800 800 Belarus 61 168 159 278 0 625 European Union 620 518 567 625 550 485 Mexico 219 216 266 228 260 280 United Arab Emirates 147 166 223 189 180 240 Canada 197 194 253 225 225 220 United States 149 173 195 213 190 185 India 144 208 199 199 200 160 Saudi Arabia 148 144 156 119 150 160 Taiwan 149 119 139 161 160 160 Other 1,884 1,862 1,806 1,793 1,817 1,786 Total 4,829 4,968 5,300 5,232 4,532 5,101 Exports none European Union 1,120 1,503 1,568 1,604 1,250 1,694 United States 827 841 893 843 875 930 China 1,087 1,012 1,026 994 880 750 Chile 831 792 836 883 834 740 South Africa 335 389 459 382 400 420 New Zealand 300 285 322 311 325 315 Serbia 110 132 40 143 150 150 Argentina 233 134 162 144 145 140 Turkey 80 87 41 193 40 100 Brazil 52 72 89 47 60 60 Other 294 241 213 188 187 201 Total 5,269 5,487 5,650 5,733 5,146 5,500

Note: The United States and Mexico are on an August-July marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis Table Grapes Summary (1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec Jun 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15

Production none China 6,200 6,600 7,400 8,085 9,000 9,000 India 1,235 2,221 2,483 2,500 2,500 2,500 Turkey 2,150 2,200 2,200 2,200 1,920 1,920 European Union 2,090 1,898 1,724 1,936 1,630 1,630 Brazil 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 Chile 1,215 1,175 1,195 1,055 1,205 1,205 United States 865 857 874 1,013 950 920 Peru 297 365 398 500 540 540 South Africa 260 286 302 318 300 340 Ukraine 320 320 320 320 320 320 Other 894 871 961 892 890 879 Total 16,826 18,092 19,158 20,119 20,555 20,554 Fresh Dom. Consumption none China 6,230 6,644 7,436 8,212 9,160 9,095 India 1,166 2,111 2,335 2,363 2,367 2,404 European Union 2,514 2,345 2,134 2,356 2,040 2,110 Turkey 1,914 1,960 1,992 1,997 1,751 1,661 Brazil 1,275 1,281 1,289 1,306 1,300 1,310 United States 1,118 1,044 1,084 1,118 1,115 1,076 Russia 436 447 443 384 450 389 Chile 361 363 339 323 380 375 Ukraine 359 360 364 352 352 345 Korea, South 313 331 315 320 325 329 Other 1,041 1,155 1,254 1,195 959 1,245 Total 16,727 18,041 18,985 19,925 20,197 20,338 Imports none European Union 552 581 560 573 540 580 United States 580 533 567 520 565 547 Russia 408 393 388 325 385 325 China 118 150 159 231 280 225 Hong Kong 143 163 144 210 170 220 Canada 189 173 176 182 180 180 Thailand 42 63 85 87 nr 90 Korea, South 45 53 55 60 65 70 Mexico 61 75 59 77 75 70 Kazakhstan 20 55 80 28 nr 60 Other 251 279 277 287 172 288 Total 2,408 2,517 2,550 2,581 2,432 2,654 Exports none Chile 854 812 856 732 825 830 United States 327 346 357 416 400 391 South Africa 249 264 280 298 278 320 Peru 121 149 177 266 290 290 Turkey 236 241 209 204 170 260 Hong Kong 109 124 105 164 135 150 Mexico 171 138 168 150 150 150 China 88 106 123 104 120 130 European Union 128 134 150 152 130 100 India 72 114 151 141 138 100 Other 149 139 142 130 136 131 Total 2,504 2,566 2,718 2,758 2,772 2,852

Note: The United States and Mexico are on a May-April marketing year. All other Northern Hemisphere countries are on a June-May marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. The abbreviation "nr" (not reported) indicates there was no 2014/15 data for that country when it was published in December 2014/15.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis Pear Summary (1,000 Metric Tons)

Dec Jun 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15

Production none China 15,057 15,800 17,000 17,300 18,500 18,500 European Union 2,378 2,895 2,009 2,431 2,410 2,410 United States 738 876 772 795 724 732 Argentina 830 760 780 690 820 610 South Africa 360 361 392 414 390 390 India 335 340 340 340 340 340 Japan 313 299 300 300 300 300 Turkey 380 390 390 390 295 295 Chile 290 287 289 267 290 290 Russia 135 141 129 145 153 150 Other 212 213 211 213 189 189 Total 21,027 22,362 22,612 23,284 24,411 24,206 Fresh Dom. Consumption none China 13,514 14,119 15,243 15,506 16,536 16,533 European Union 2,187 2,256 1,735 1,942 1,967 1,877 United States 410 456 395 409 398 412 Russia 500 508 463 516 400 399 India 352 360 357 356 357 356 Japan 312 298 299 299 299 299 Turkey 346 363 352 355 273 261 Brazil 229 237 210 228 245 245 Belarus 8 19 19 60 nr 150 Australia 91 84 85 85 116 116 Other 962 975 988 875 919 812 Total 18,910 19,673 20,146 20,630 21,510 21,461 For Processing none China 1,120 1,264 1,350 1,500 1,650 1,650 European Union 172 410 237 275 290 290 United States 256 292 272 265 251 235 Argentina 240 280 260 186 280 160 South Africa 113 127 141 158 115 140 Chile 72 70 62 65 69 75 Russia 40 43 20 22 11 10 Turkey 10 10 10 10 10 10 Mexico 3 3 3 4 4 4 New Zealand 3 3 3 2 3 3 Other 31 31 30 30 0 0 Total 2,059 2,531 2,388 2,516 2,683 2,577 Imports none Russia 410 421 368 412 275 275 European Union 324 229 282 256 220 230 Brazil 210 217 190 208 225 225 Belarus 8 19 19 60 nr 150 Indonesia 138 129 136 96 110 100 Mexico 75 96 83 90 90 90 United States 79 63 79 82 75 90 Other 448 504 525 436 473 383 Total 1,692 1,676 1,681 1,640 1,468 1,543 Exports none European Union 344 458 319 470 325 425 Argentina 470 394 439 409 430 340 China 423 419 409 299 320 325 South Africa 182 182 203 208 225 200 United States 151 191 184 204 150 175 Chile 135 135 144 117 135 130 Turkey 26 19 29 25 12 25 Other 14 26 21 28 25 26 Total 1,745 1,822 1,746 1,760 1,622 1,646

Note: Northern Hemisphere countries are on a July-June marketing year. Southern Hemisphere countries are on a calendar year indicated as the second year of the split year. The abbreviation "nr" (not reported) indicates there was no 2014/15 data for that country when it was published in December 2014/15. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA June 2015 Office of Global Analysis