Nigeria's Renewal: Delivering Inclusive Growth in Africa's Largest Economy

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Nigeria's Renewal: Delivering Inclusive Growth in Africa's Largest Economy McKinsey Global Institute McKinsey Global Institute Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering renewal: Nigeria’s inclusive largest growth economy in Africa’s July 2014 Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy The McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses on six themes: productivity and growth; natural resources; labour markets; the evolution of global financial markets; the economic impact of technology and innovation; and urbanisation. Recent reports have assessed job creation, resource productivity, cities of the future, the economic impact of the Internet, and the future of manufacturing. MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company directors: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel. Michael Chui, Susan Lund, and Jaana Remes serve as MGI partners. Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows, and include consultants from McKinsey & Company’s offices around the world. These teams draw on McKinsey & Company’s global network of partners and industry and management experts. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, act as research advisers. The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit www.mckinsey.com/mgi. McKinsey in Nigeria McKinsey & Company is a global management consulting firm that helps many of the world’s leading organisations address their strategic challenges, from reorganising for long-term growth to improving business performance and maximising revenue. With consultants deployed in more than 60 countries across the globe, McKinsey advises on strategic, operational, organisational, and technological issues. For more than eight decades, the firm’s primary objective has been to serve as an organisation’s most trusted external adviser on critical issues facing senior management. McKinsey opened its first office in Africa in 1995 and is playing an active role in the continent’s economic rebirth, making a difference to both individual clients and whole countries. McKinsey has more than 350 consultants working in Addis Ababa, Cairo, Casablanca, Johannesburg, Lagos, Luanda, and Nairobi and has completed more than 2,000 engagements across the continent. Since 2002, McKinsey has helped support the growth and development of Nigeria. Since opening its Lagos office in 2010, McKinsey has completed more than 200 projects in the country, serving a range of private local companies, multinationals, state-owned enterprises, and the public sector. Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2014 McKinsey Global Institute July 2014 Nigeria’s renewal: Delivering inclusive growth in Africa’s largest economy Acha Leke Reinaldo Fiorini Richard Dobbs Fraser Thompson Aliyu Suleiman David Wright Preface Global investors and business leaders are focusing on Kathryn Zealand. Geoffrey Lewis provided editorial Africa as the next frontier of growth and opportunity, support, and we thank MGI’s production and assuming the role that Asia has played in the past design team—Julie Philpot and Marisa Carder—as 30 years. As in Asia, rapidly developing economies have well as Rebeca Robboy and Marlynie Moodley in the potential to lift millions of people out of poverty, external relations. contribute to global labour pools, and create a new consuming class. Nowhere is this potential more apparent We are grateful for the advice and input of many than in Nigeria, which is the largest African nation not only McKinsey colleagues, including Rolando Balsinde, in population, but also in economic output. Dominic Barton, Martin Bratt, Armando Cabral, Bruno Carrilho, Elsie Chang, Michael Chui, Dan Cole, This report was prepared through a collaboration Eoin Daly, Scott Desmarais, Diana Farrell, Lutz Goedde, between the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and Marte Guldemond, Indrek Heinloo, Adam Kendall, McKinsey’s Nigeria office to assess the opportunity that Alastair Levy, Susan Lund, Anu Madgavkar, Karl- Nigeria’s growth represents for global, local, and regional Hendrik Magnus, James Manyika, Jan Mischke, businesses and, most importantly, for its people. We find Derek Neilson, Liane Ong, Sree Ramaswamy, that the substantial progress that Nigeria has made in Jaana Remes, Joao Viana Rodrigues, Occo Roelofsen, the past 15 years has not been fully appreciated in the Bill Russo, Namit Sharma, Marc Stoneham, Ade Sun- outside world, where the nation’s challenges—including Basorun, Amine Tazi-Riffi, Arend Van Wamelen, and security issues—have garnered more media attention. Jonathan Woetzel. Nigeria has, in fact, established a record of steady growth and improved political stability. Despite persistent poverty, This work was made possible by the insights that the country has a rapidly growing consuming class. In the were shared by our academic advisers and experts following pages, we describe how Nigeria can build on from industry, the nonprofit sector, and the Nigerian its recent success and ensure that in the coming decade government. We thank our academic advisers Paul Collier, growth is more inclusive so that more Nigerians can professor of economics and public policy at the Blavatnik escape poverty and enjoy a decent standard of living. School of Government, Oxford University; Richard Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, This research was led by Acha Leke, director of Harvard University; Shelby Grossman of Harvard McKinsey in Africa and member of the MGI Council; University; and Daniel Rogger of University College Reinaldo Fiorini, managing director of the McKinsey London. Industry leaders who contributed include Lagos office; and Richard Dobbs, an MGI director in Lazarus Angbazo, president and CEO, GE Nigeria; London. Fraser Thompson, an MGI senior fellow based in Hakeem Belo-Osagie, chairman, Etisalat Nigeria; Singapore, directed the research with Aliyu Suleiman, an Aliko Dangote, chairman and CEO, Dangote Group; associate principal based in London. The research team Dharnesh Gordhon, managing director, Nestlé Nigeria; was led by David Wright and consisted of Tim McEvoy, Phillip Ihenacho, CEO, Seven Energy; Kola B. Jamodu, Amuche Okeke-Agba, Roelof van Schalkwyk, and chairman, Nigerian Breweries; Razia Khan, head of regional research (Africa), Standard Chartered Bank; This report contributes to MGI’s mission to help business Timothy Okon, director of transformation, Nigerian and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the National Petroleum Corporation; Oscar Onyema, CEO, global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare Nigerian Stock Exchange; and Foluso Phillips, executive for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this chairman, Phillips Consulting. work is independent and has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, We also benefited from the insights of Donald Kaberuka, or other institution. We welcome your comments on the president of the African Development Bank; Elsie Kanza, research at [email protected]. head of Africa at the World Economic Forum; John Litwack, lead economist for Nigeria, the World Bank; Marie Francoise Marie-Nelly, World Bank country director for Nigeria; Frank Nweke Jr., director-general, Richard Dobbs Nigerian Economic Summit Group; and Ada Osakwe, Director, McKinsey Global Institute Elumelu fellow at the Tony Elumelu Foundation and London senior investment adviser to the Nigerian Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. We are also James Manyika indebted to Joe Abah, director-general, Bureau of Director, McKinsey Global Institute Public Service Reforms; Yemi Kale, CEO of the Nigerian San Francisco National Bureau of Statistics; Bambo Kunle-Salami, Jonathan Woetzel special adviser to the minister of industry, trade and Director, McKinsey Global Institute investment; Kingsley Obiora, special adviser to the chief Shanghai economic adviser to the president; Kelechi Ohiri, senior technical adviser to the minister of health and lead, Acha Leke Saving One Million Lives; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s Director, McKinsey & Company, and member of MGI coordinating minister for the economy and minister of Council finance; Philip Osafo-Kwaako, special assistant to the Africa co-ordinating minister for the economy; Dapo Oyewole, technical adviser to the minister of national planning; Muhammad Ali Pate, former minister of state for health; and Christopher Shyers, team leader for Growth and July 2014 Employment in States, an employment project supported by Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment and funded by the World Bank and the UK Department for International Development. We are grateful for all of their input, but the final report is ours and any errors are our own. Nigeria today … The largest
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