D3.4 Consequences of Extreme Weather
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Extreme weather impacts on European networks of transport Grant Nr 233919 Co-funded by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme, Transport, Horizontal activities D3.4 Consequences of extreme weather Project: EWENT Document Number and Title: D3.4 Consequences of extreme weather Work-Package: WP3 Deliverable Type: Report Contractual Date of Delivery: M11 (November 2010) Actual Date of Delivery: Author/Responsible(s): DLR Contributors: DLR: Jens Bläsche, Michael Kreuz, Thorsten Mühlhausen via donau: Juha Schweighofer VTT: Pekka Leviäkangas, Riitta Molarius, Mar- ko Nokkala Cymet: Spyros Athanasatos, Silas Michaelides, Mathaios Papadakis TOI: Johanna Ludvigsen Approval of this report: by the EC Summary of this report: Keyword List: WP3, D3, EWENT, extreme weather, transport system, consequences Dissemination level: Public (PU) 1/136 Version history Version Date Status Author (Partner) Description 0.1 17.06.2011 1st draft Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- outline chael Kreuz, Jens Bläsche (all DLR) 0.15 08.07.2011 Draft Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Included all available chael Kreuz (all DLR) information from D3.1 to D3.3 0.16 28.07.2011 Juha Schweighofer (via do- Inclusion of inland nau) waterway infrastruc- ture and Annex relat- ed to IWT 0.2 07.10.2011 Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Editiorial work chael Kreuz (all DLR), Pekka + Leviäkangas, Riitta Molarius Weather related road (all VTT) accident rates in Fin- land + Incorporation of a weather vs. conse- quence overview table 0.21 13.10.2011 Juha Schweighofer (via do- Editorial work nau) 0.22 14.10.2011 Spyros Athanasatos (cymet), Chapter 3.4.3 added Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- + editorial changes chael Kreuz (all DLR) 0.3 20.10.2011 Spyros Athanasatos (cymet), References added, Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- tables harmonized, chael Kreuz (all DLR) editiorial changes 0.31 03.11.2011 Juha Schweighofer (via do- Editorial changes nau) 0.32 07.11.2011 Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Editorial work chael Kreuz (all DLR), Askola Hanna, Marko Nokka- la, Pekka Leviäkangas (VTT), Juha Schweighofer (via do- nau), Johanna Ludvigsen (TOI) 0.9 18.11.2011 Final draft Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Incorportation of final chael Kreuz (all DLR), comments Askola Hanna, Marko Nokka- la, Pekka Leviäkangas (VTT), 2/136 Juha Schweighofer (via do- nau), Johanna Ludvigsen (TOI) 1.0 01.12.2011 Final Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- version chael Kreuz (all DLR), Pekka Leviäkangas (VTT), Juha Schweighofer, Nina Siedl, Tabea Reicher (all via donau) 1.01 18.01.2012 Extended Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Addition of aviation final chael Kreuz (all DLR) outlook version 1.1 02.02.2012 Extended Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- Outlook for all traffic final chael Kreuz, Juha means added version Schweighofer (via donau), Pekka Leviäkangas, Marko Nokkala (VTT), Spyros Atha- nasatos (cymet) 1.2 09.02.2012 Final edito- Thorsten Mühlhausen, Mi- rial com- chael Kreuz, Juha ments in- Schweighofer (via donau), corporated Pekka Leviäkangas (VTT) (If dissemination of the Deliverable is restricted, add Distribution list) Distribution list European Commission Iona-Olga Adamescu EWENT partners E-mail list EWENT Steering Committee E-mail list Website http://ewent.vtt.fi 3/136 This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of EWENT Consortium and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. 4/136 Executive summary This document is the third step in the EWENT approach to analyse and mitigate the influence of extreme weather on the European transport network. The two previous documents deal with the weather phenomena, which have influence on the different traffic modes (road, rail, aviation, in- land waterways and maritime shipping), and with future weather scenarios, which impact these phenomena. In this document a quantitative approach to analyse the different traffic means is developed, which is used in the subsequent work packages to carry out cost analysis and develop risk mitigation strategies. The approach is two-stepped. First the impact of extreme weather phenomena on the abovemen- tioned modes of transport is analysed. Example corridors or hot spots are identified for each traffic mean in each of the five identified climate areas (Nordic, Temperate, Alpine, Mediterranean and Maritime) and quantitatively assessed. Then following, the cost inducing effects of the weather phenomena are discussed. Both steps are evaluated separately for each transport mode because their sensitivity and resili- ence differ significantly from each other. Finally, the expected impact changes are shown in a comprehensive summary table. The analysis shows that especially road traffic with its two traffic patterns, freight transport be- tween major knots on corridors and passenger flows in large cities that are affected by delay. Also aviation that has high weather dependence already today, will suffer from extreme weather events in the future. The reason for this is two-folded. On one hand, wind gusts will increase, especially in the southern part of Europe and on the other hand, free capacity, which is currently used to buffer weather events, will be occupied by additional flights. Hence the impact of weather will be even higher than today. For the other traffic modes no significant change in delay behavior due to ex- treme weather is expected in the long-term future, but already at present the delays do exist to the extent that requires attention. For all transport modes the accident rates should have a declining trend or stay on a low level in the future as it is expected that better technique and higher safety standards, which today are best adopted in aviation, will influence the accident rate more than the expected weather changes. 5/136 Table of contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 8 2. Methodical approach ................................................................................................ 10 3. Impact of extreme weather phenomena .................................................................. 12 3.1. Road ................................................................................................................................ 12 3.1.1. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 12 3.1.2. Safety ................................................................................................................. 17 3.1.3. Operators ........................................................................................................... 21 3.2. Rail .................................................................................................................................. 22 3.2.1. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 22 3.2.2. Safety ................................................................................................................. 25 3.2.3. Operators ........................................................................................................... 28 3.3. Aviation ........................................................................................................................... 28 3.3.1. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 28 3.3.2. Safety ................................................................................................................. 34 3.3.3. Operators ........................................................................................................... 36 3.4. Marine / short sea ........................................................................................................... 37 3.4.1. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 37 3.4.2. Safety ................................................................................................................. 40 3.4.3. Operators ........................................................................................................... 43 3.5. Inland Waterways ........................................................................................................... 46 3.5.1. Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 46 3.5.2. Safety ................................................................................................................. 54 4. Cost inducing effects of extreme weather phenomena ............................................. 61 4.1. Road ................................................................................................................................ 61 4.1.1. Delays in road transport .................................................................................... 61 4.1.2. Accidents in road transport................................................................................ 62 4.1.3. Consequences from infrastructure point of view ............................................... 69 4.2. Rail .................................................................................................................................. 70 4.2.1. Overview of impacts and consequences by weather phenomena ..................... 72 4.3. Aviation ..........................................................................................................................