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Belgian Society and Politics 2013 As Ever, in Between Elections Wim Vermeersch (ed.) Published by Gerrit Kreveld Foundation and Samenleving en politiek ampol Contents Rudi VANDER VENNET As Ever, in Between Elections p.3 Wim VERMEERSCH Editor’s Choice: Featured Articles p.4 PART 1 - THE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS OF 2012 Koenraad DE CEUNINCK, Ellen OLISLAGERS, Herwig REYNAERT, Kristof STEYVERS, Tony VALCKE Politics is a Card Game p.10 Marc HOOGHE, Ruth DASSONNEVILLE Determinants of Electoral Volatility Where Did the N-VA Find its Local Support? p.19 Marc HOOGHE Political Parties in the Trenches p.27 Peter VAN AELST Battlefield Antwerp How Flemish Nationalists Conquered City Hall p.31 Marc SWYNGEDOUW Battlefield Antwerp How Socialists Lost City Hall p.39 Frederik VERLEDEN Town and Country A Politico-geographical Faultline? p.48 Pascal DELWIT PS: The Tentative Steps of the Parti Socialiste p.57 PART 2 - THE FEDERAL, REGIONAL AND EUROPEAN ELECTIONS OF 2014 Carl DEVOS Sp.a: Taking the Offensive p.65 Dave SINARDET, Jérémy DODEIGNE, Min REUCHAMPS Beyond the Myth of Unanimity. Opinions of Belgian MPs on Federalism and the Sixth Reform of the Belgian State p.71 Nicolas BOUTECA, Carl DEVOS Flemish Nationalists (N-VA) Versus the Rest and... Themselves p.84 Hugues RENARD, Pierre VERJANS The Francophone Parties in Unfamiliar Territory p.92 Hendrik VOS Real European Elections at Last? p.98 As Ever, in Between Elections Rudi Vander Vennet Chairman Stichting Gerrit Kreveld This is the seventh yearbook ‘Belgian Society and Politics’, entitled ‘As Ever, in Between Elections’. It has been published by the Foundation Gerrit Kreveld, a Belgian study centre for social democracy and a think tank for innovative social-democratic analysis and policy. With this publication we try to provide accurate information about contemporary Belgian politics in general, and the position and beliefs of Belgian Social Democracy, chiefly from a Flemish perspective, in particular. Special thanks go to Wim Vermeersch who has served as the editor of this volume and the six previous ones. Belgian Society and Politics 2013 – As Ever, in Between Elections contains a wide range of articles which analyze the current events in Belgian politics. We are convinced that they will deepen your understanding of the Belgian political system and its political players ahead of the important, triple elections in May 2014. These articles have previously appeared in the Foundation Gerrit Kreveld’s monthly Journal, Samenleving en politiek (Sampol) [Society and Politics]. Sampol has acquired a reputation for expertise in academic circles and opinion pieces in the media. Starting point in this publication is the Belgian context. Given the asymmetry between Flanders and Wallonia and the special case of Brussels, Belgium exhibits some unique characteristics. After polls in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010, once again we find ourselves in between elections: on 14 October 2012 local and provincial elections were held; on 25 May 2014 we will cast our vote for the federal, regional and European level. We have asked Belgium’s finest political scientists for their views on the previous and upcoming elections. This volume also tries to shed some light on the 3 differences between the Walloon and the Flemish Socialists. Both are partners in the Di Rupo I administration (a coalition of 6 parties), but face very different political fortunes next year. Belgium has regained its confidence over the last two years, following an institutional gridlock that had paralysed the political process for more than three years. Belgian politics has become polarized after the election win of the Flemish nationalist party (N-VA) in 2010. Only by sidelining the nationalist party in the Summer of 2011, the so-called ‘traditional parties’ (Socialists, Christian Democrats and Liberals) on both sides of the linguistic frontier succeeded in building a coalition that could tackle the fundamental issues facing all European countries. A new-found optimism now prevails. Election results will show whether the Flemish coalition parties will reap the rewards of the regained stability or whether the Flemish Nationalists (in the government at the Flemish level, but in fierce opposition at the federal level) will come out as victors. The odds don’t look particularly well for the Flemish traditional parties in general and the Social Democrats (Sp.a) in particular. With the publication of this seventh Belgian Society and Politics, but equally through our periodical Samenleving en politiek (Sampol), the Foundation Gerrit Kreveld attempts to inform the interested readers about the political debate in Belgium and Flanders. We try to highlight views and approaches in Belgium, hoping to provide useful insights, analysis and inspiration that may be transferable to other regions. This reaffirms our ambition to be an active participant in the cross-border dialogue on the future of Social Democracy. It is also the reason why we remain a dedicated member of the FEPS, the Foundation for European Progressive Studies. We hope this volume may inform, inspire and stimulate debate. Editor’s Choice: Featured Articles Belgian Society and Politics 2013 - As Ever, in Between Elections Wim Vermeersch If you are able to understand Belgium, then you should be able to understand any political system anywhere on the planet. Belgium is a multinational democracy, a bipolar state without federal par- ties, without federal elections, without federal media …and in the heart of the EU. That makes things rather complicated. Analyzing the local and provincial elections of 2012 and looking forward to the federal, regional and European elections of 2014, this Yearbook provides you with the necessary tools to find your way through the somewhat surrealist Belgian politics. Welcome and enjoy. DI RUPO I ADMINISTRATION In earlier editions, we have called Belgium a no-man’s land between fact and fiction, a cold turkey of pragmatism and the sophist’s nirvana. Since 1970 there has been a succession of constitutional reforms, complicated operations that have, on several occasions, nevertheless proved useful. They have even officially rebuilt Belgium into a federal state. The last few years we witnessed a major breach between the linguistic regions. The federal elections of June 2010 caused an electoral earthquake in Flanders: for the first time in living memory the three traditional political parties 4 together failed to attract 50% of the vote, and the Flemish nationalist N-VA became by far the largest political party. Only in December 2011 the Di Rupo I administration (a coalition of 6 parties of Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats on both sides of the linguistic frontier) took office, closing a deal on the sixth state reform and marking the end to the longest ever government formation. This coalition government does not include the biggest party in Flanders (N- VA) and does not have a majority on the Flemish side (usually the case). Even for a politically bizarre country like Belgium, it is an unfamiliar situation. But it seems to be working: in the past two years the Di Rupo administration has built a remarkable confidence. The three Flemish governing parties are hoping it will suffice to withstand the Flemish nationalist storm in the triple 2014 elections. NON-STOP ELECTION FEVER The local and provincial elections of 14 October 2012 were seen by some as a mid-term election in the federal parliamentary term of 2010-2014. In 2013, as ever, we find ourselves in between elections. The election fever continuously grips the nation. It led writer and historian David Van Reybrouck to write a provocative pamphlet about this democratic fatigue syndrom (Tegen verkiezingen [Against Elections], 2013). He lashes out against the paralyzing effect of the many elections we hold, which hamper, not facilitate, our system of representative democracy. He has a point. Ever since September 2011 we read the first reports in the media about the local and provincial elections of 14 October 2012. And as of 15 October 2012, parties kicked off their campaign for the federal, regional and European elections of 25 May 2014. It is needless to say it makes governing extremely difficult for the Flemish Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats (in power at the federal level). They are in a constant state of electoral nervousness. For journalists and commentators, of course, these are interesting times. In this publication we have gathered articles of Belgium’s finest political scientists, on both sides of the linguistic frontier, in which the big trends of the 2012 elections are outlined and the political divisions of the upcoming 2014 elections are examined. As in previous editions of this Yearbook, special attention will be paid to the Socialists of the Flemish Sp.a and the Francophone PS. Although both are partners in the government (the PS, for the first time since 1973 was even able to deliver the prime minister, Elio Di Rupo), their respective situation is beyond comparison: in Flanders the Sp.a has become a small party (which, through their ministers, punches above its electoral weight), whereas the PS has been the biggest player in Wallonia for decades. LOOKING BACK AT THE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS OF 2012 What trends can we detect from the local and provincial elections of 14 October 2012? Koenraad De Ceuninck, Ellen Olislagers, Herwig Reynaert, Kristof Steyvers and Tony Valcke, in Politics is a Card Game, analyse party per party how they performed. These elections were seen particularly as a test for the Flemish nationalist N-VA and the Christian-democratic CD&V, the two parties that had fought the 2006 local elections as cartel partners but six years later campaigned separately in every province and in most of the municipalities. The Christian-democratic party in Flanders traditionally dominated the local elections, but over the years it has gradually lost its monopoly and in 2012 even lost its position as the largest party.

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