AGENDA David Arambula Metropolitan Transit System Friday, March 2, 2018 John Aguilera Vice Chair, North County Transit District 9 A.M

Members Jim Desmond, Chair Mayor, City of San Marcos (Representing North County Inland) Bill Sandke, Vice Chair Councilmember, City of Coronado (Representing South County) Georgette Gomez Councilmember, City of San Diego Ron Roberts TRANSPORTATION Supervisor, County of San Diego Bill Baber Councilmember, City of La Mesa COMMITTEE (Representing East County) Catherine Blakespear Mayor, City of Encinitas (Representing North County Coastal) AGENDA David Arambula Metropolitan Transit System Friday, March 2, 2018 John Aguilera Vice Chair, North County Transit District 9 a.m. to 12 noon April Boling SANDAG Board Room San Diego County Regional Airport Authority 401 B Street, 7th Floor Garry Bonelli San Diego Vice Chair, San Diego Unified Port District

Alternates Judy Ritter AGENDA HIGHLIGHTS Mayor, City of Vista (Representing North County Inland) Mary Salas • SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 Mayor, City of Chula Vista (Representing South County) REGIONAL PLAN - SOCIAL EQUITY ANALYSIS Mark Kersey OVERVIEW Councilmember, City of San Diego Bill Horn Supervisor, County of San Diego • FIRST TransNet TEN-YEAR REVIEW: PROPOSED Greg Cox “LOOK-AHEAD” IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Supervisor, County of San Diego Jennifer Mendoza Councilmember, City of Lemon Grove • OVERVIEW OF PROPOSED 2018 TransNet (Representing East County) SHORT-TERM BOND ISSUANCE Jewel Edson Councilmember, City of Solana Beach (Representing North County Coastal) Lorie Bragg Metropolitan Transit System PLEASE SILENCE ALL ELECTRONIC DEVICES DURING THE MEETING Bill Horn / Mark Packard North County Transit District YOU CAN LISTEN TO THE TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE Vacant MEETING BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT SANDAG.ORG San Diego County Regional Airport Authority Michael Zucchet Commissioner, San Diego Unified Port District MISSION STATEMENT The 18 cities and county government are SANDAG serving as the forum for regional Advisory Members decision-making. SANDAG builds consensus; makes strategic plans; obtains and allocates resources; Cory Binns / Ann Fox plans, engineers, and builds public transit; and provides information on a broad range of topics Caltrans District 11 pertinent to the region’s quality of life. Erica Pinto, Jamul Allen Lawson, San Pasqual Southern California Tribal San Diego Association of Governments ⋅ 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101-4231 Chairmen’s Association (619) 699-1900 ⋅ Fax (619) 699-1905 ⋅ sandag.org

Kim Kawada Chief Deputy Executive Director, SANDAG

Welcome to SANDAG. Members of the public may speak to the Transportation Committee (Committee) on any item at the time the Committee is considering the item. Please complete a Request to Comment form, which is located in the rear of the room, and then present the form to the Committee Clerk seated at the front table. Members of the public may address the Committee on any issue under the agenda item entitled Public Comments/Communications/Member Comments. Public speakers are limited to three minutes or less per person. The Committee may take action on any item appearing on the agenda.

Both agenda and non-agenda comments should be sent to SANDAG via [email protected]. Please include the committee name and meeting date, agenda item, your name, and your organization. Any comments, handouts, presentations, or other materials from the public intended for distribution at the Committee meeting should be received by the Clerk of the Board no later than 12 noon, two working days prior to the meeting. All public comments and materials received by the deadline become part of the official project record, will be provided to the members for their review at the meeting, and will be posted to the agenda file as a part of the handouts following each meeting.

In order to keep the public informed in an efficient manner and facilitate public participation, SANDAG also provides access to all agenda and meeting materials online at www.sandag.org/meetings. Additionally, interested persons can sign up for e-notifications via our e-distribution list either at the SANDAG website or by sending an email request to [email protected].

SANDAG operates its programs without regard to race, color, and national origin in compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. SANDAG has developed procedures for investigating and tracking Title VI complaints, and the procedures for filing a complaint are available to the public upon request. Questions concerning SANDAG nondiscrimination obligations or complaint procedures should be directed to the SANDAG General Counsel, John Kirk, at (619) 699-1997 or [email protected]. Any person who believes himself or herself or any specific class of persons to be subjected to discrimination prohibited by Title VI also may file a written complaint with the Federal Transit Administration.

In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), SANDAG will accommodate persons who require assistance in order to participate in SANDAG meetings. If such assistance is required, please contact SANDAG at (619) 699-1900 at least 72 hours in advance of the meeting. To request this document or related reports in an alternative format, please call (619) 699-1900 or (619) 699-1904 (TTY), or fax (619) 699-1905.

SANDAG agenda materials can be made available in alternative languages. To make a request, call (619) 699-1900 at least 72 hours in advance of the meeting.

Los materiales de la agenda de SANDAG están disponibles en otros idiomas. Para hacer una solicitud, llame al (619) 699-1900 al menos 72 horas antes de la reunión.

如有需要, 我们可以把SANDAG议程材料翻译成其他語言.

请在会议前至少 72 小时打电话 (619) 699-1900 提出请求. SANDAG offices are accessible by public transit. Phone 511 or visit 511sd.com for route information. Bicycle parking is available in the parking garage of the SANDAG offices.

2 012418 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE Friday, March 2, 2018

ITEM NO. RECOMMENDATION +1. APPROVAL OF MEETING MINUTES APPROVE

The Transportation Committee is asked to review and approve the minutes from its February 16, 2018, meeting.

2. PUBLIC COMMENTS/COMMUNICATIONS/MEMBER COMMENTS

Members of the public shall have the opportunity to address the Transportation Committee on any issue within the jurisdiction of the Committee that is not on this agenda. Anyone desiring to speak shall reserve time by completing a “Request to Speak” form and giving it to the Clerk prior to speaking. Public speakers should notify the Clerk if they have a handout for distribution to Committee members. Public speakers are limited to three minutes or less per person. Committee members also may provide information and announcements under this agenda item.

CONSENT

+3. TransNet SMART GROWTH INCENTIVE PROGRAM AND ACTIVE INFORMATION TRANSPORTATION GRANT PROGRAM: QUARTERLY STATUS UPDATE (Tracy Ferchaw)

This report provides an overview of progress made by TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program and Active Transportation Grant recipients.

+4. TransNet ENVIRONMENTAL MITIGATION PROGRAM: LAND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT GRANT PROGRAM QUARTERLY STATUS UPDATE (Sarah Pierce)

This report provides an update on progress made by TransNet Environmental Mitigation Program Land Management Grant Program recipients.

+5. SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 REGIONAL PLAN – INFORMATION WHITE PAPERS (Phil Trom)

This report includes the Public Health, Economic Prosperity, and Climate Change white papers, which will inform the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan.

REPORTS

+6. TransNet SENIOR MINI-GRANT PROGRAM: PROPOSED AMENDMENT APPROVE REQUEST (Jack Christensen)

The Transportation Committee is asked to approve an amendment, approving a modified scope of work and 12-month schedule extension for the City of Coronado Seniors Out and About volunteer driver program.

3 +7. SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 REGIONAL PLAN – SOCIAL INFORMATION EQUITY ANALYSIS OVERVIEW (Jane Clough)

Staff will provide an overview of the social equity analysis to be conducted for San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan.

+8. FIRST TransNet TEN-YEAR REVIEW: PROPOSED “LOOK-AHEAD” DISCUSSION IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (Ariana zur Nieden)

The Board of Directors discussed the TransNet Ten-Year Review “Look-Back” results at its January 26, 2018, meeting. Staff will present the proposed “Look-Ahead” Implementation Plan.

+9. OVERVIEW OF PROPOSED 2018 TransNet SHORT-TERM BOND INFORMATION ISSUANCE (Andre Douzdjian)

Staff will provide an overview of the proposed bond strategy and financing schedule for the issuance of up to $537.5 million in short-term, fixed-rate debt to advance implementation of the Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project funding strategy.

10. CONTINUED PUBLIC COMMENTS

If the five speaker limit for public comments was exceeded at the beginning of this agenda, other public comments will be taken at this time. Subjects of previous agenda items may not again be addressed under public comment.

11. UPCOMING MEETINGS INFORMATION

The next meeting of the Transportation Committee is scheduled for Friday, March 16, 2018, at 9 a.m.

12. ADJOURNMENT

+ next to an agenda item indicates an attachment

4 AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-1 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: APPROVE

TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE DISCUSSION AND ACTIONS

FEBRUARY 16, 2018

The meeting of the Transportation Committee was called to order by Chair Jim Desmond (North County Inland) at 8:59 a.m.

1. APPROVAL OF MEETING MINUTES (APPROVE)

Action: Upon a motion by Councilmember Georgette Gomez (City of San Diego), and a second by Councilmember Bill Baber (East County), the Transportation Committee approved the meeting minutes of February 2, 2018. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Bill Sandke (South County), Councilmember Gomez, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Jewel Edson (North County Coastal), Councilmember David Arambula (Metropolitan Transit System [MTS]), Vice Chair John Aguilera (North County Transit District [NCTD]), and Vice Chair Garry Bonelli (San Diego Unified Port District [SDUPD]). No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: County of San Diego and San Diego County Regional Airport Authority (SDCRAA).

2. PUBLIC COMMENTS/COMMUNICATIONS/MEMBER COMMENTS

John Wotzka, a member of the public, submitted written comments and spoke about various transportation matters.

Chair Desmond announced new Ex Officio member, Poway Mayor Steve Vaus, SANDAG Board of Directors Vice Chair.

Vice Chair Sandke invited Transportation Committee members to attend a ribbon cutting ceremony to celebrate the completion of the National City Segment of the Bayshore Bikeway. The event will be held on Saturday, February 17, 2018, from 9 to 11 a.m., at Unified Port of San Diego General Services, 1400 Tidelands Avenue, National City.

REPORTS

3. 2016 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM: AMENDMENT NO. 10 – ADMINISTRATIVE MODIFICATION (APPROVE)

Sue Alpert, Associate Project Control Analyst, presented the item.

Action: Upon a motion by SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli, and a second by Vice Chair Sandke, the Transportation Committee approved Amendment No. 10 – Administrative Modification to the 2016 Regional Transportation Improvement Program. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Ron Roberts (County of San Diego), Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

4. HOWARD AVENUE SEGMENT OF THE HOWARD – ORANGE BIKEWAY: CALIFORNIA ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ACT EXEMPTION (APPROVE)

Alison Moss, Associate Regional Planner, and Andrew Martin, Senior Energy/Climate Planner, presented the item.

Andy Hanshaw, San Diego Bicycle Coalition, spoke in support of the item.

Action: Upon a motion by Councilmember Gomez, and a second by Councilmember Baber, the Transportation Committee approved the California Environmental Quality Act exemption for the Howard Avenue segment of the Howard – Orange Bikeway. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Roberts, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

5. PROPOSED FY 2018 PROGRAM BUDGET AMENDMENT: LIGHT RAIL VEHICLE (LRV) PROCUREMENT SUPPORT (APPROVE)

Chip Finch, Principal Systems Engineer, presented the item.

Action: Upon a motion by Vice Chair Sandke, and a second by Councilmember Arambula, the Transportation Committee: (1) approved an amendment to the FY 2018 Program Budget, creating a new Capital Improvement Program Project No. 1131400: Light Rail Vehicle (LRV) Procurement Support; and (2) accepted $150,000 from the MTS to fully fund the project. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Roberts, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

6. PROPOSED FY 2018 PROGRAM BUDGET AMENDMENT: I-15 MANAGED LANES DYNAMIC SIGNAGE IMPROVEMENT PROJECT (APPROVE)

Ryan Ross, Business Operations Program Manager, presented the item.

Action: Upon a motion by Supervisor Roberts, and a second by NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, the Transportation Committee approved an amendment to the FY 2018 Program Budget, adding $118,000 in Interstate 15 (I-15) Toll Reserves to the I-15 Managed Lanes Dynamic Signage Improvement project (Capital Improvement Program Project No. 1400302), for additional construction administration support. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Roberts, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

7. PROPOSED FY 2018 PROGRAM BUDGET AMENDMENT: ELVIRA TO MORENA DOUBLE TRACK PROJECT (RECOMMEND)

Peter d’Ablaing, Senior Transportation Engineer, presented the item.

Action: Upon a motion by NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and a second by Councilmember Gomez, the Transportation Committee recommended that the Board of Directors approve an amendment to the FY 2018 Program Budget, adding $3.404 million in funds from the City of San Diego to the Elvira to Morena Double Track project (Capital Improvement Program Project No. 1239811), to fully fund two wet utility agreements. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Roberts, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

8. FY 2019 – FY 2023 TransNet AND TRANSIT RELATED REVENUES (RECOMMEND)

Dawn Vettese, Financial Programming Manager, and Ray Major, Director of Data, Research, Analytics, and Modeling, presented the item.

Action: Upon a motion by Supervisor Roberts, and a second by Councilmember Gomez, the Transportation Committee recommended that the Board of Directors approve the FY 2019 – FY 2023 Transportation Development Act, TransNet, and Federal Transit Administration estimates and apportionments. Yes: Chair Desmond, Vice Chair Sandke, Councilmember Gomez, Supervisor Roberts, Councilmember Baber, Councilmember Edson, Councilmember Arambula, NCTD Vice Chair Aguilera, and SDUPD Vice Chair Bonelli. No: None. Abstain: None. Absent: SDCRAA.

9. SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 REGIONAL PLAN – FUNDING SCENARIOS (DISCUSSION)

Muggs Stoll, Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning, and José Nuncio, Director of TransNet, provided an overview of the discussion held at the annual SANDAG Board of Directors retreat on which funding scenarios should be used as part of the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan.

Jack Shu, Cleveland National Forest Foundation, spoke about transit first funding scenarios, and proposed user fees for drivers.

Action: This item was presented for discussion.

10. CONTINUED PUBLIC COMMENTS

There were no continued public comments.

11. UPCOMING MEETINGS

The next meeting of the Transportation Committee is scheduled for Friday, March 2, 2018.

12. ADJOURNMENT

Chair Desmond adjourned the meeting at 10:27 a.m.

3 Meeting Start Time: 8:59 a.m. Meeting Adjourned Time: 10:27 a.m.

CONFIRMED ATTENDANCE SANDAG TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MEETING FEBRUARY 16, 2018

JURISDICTION NAME MEMBER / ALTERNATE ATTENDING

Catherine Blakespear Member No North County Coastal Jewel Edson Alternate Yes

Jim Desmond (Chair) Member Yes North County Inland Judy Ritter Alternate Yes

Bill Baber Member Yes East County Jennifer Mendoza Alternate Yes

Bill Sandke (Vice chair) Member Yes South County Mary Salas Alternate No

Georgette Gomez Member Yes City of San Diego Mark Kersey Alternate No

Ron Roberts Member Yes

County of San Diego Bill Horn Alternate No

Greg Cox Alternate No

David Arambula Member Yes Metropolitan Transit System Lorie Bragg Alternate Yes

John Aguilera Member Yes

North County Transit District Bill Horn Alternate No

Mark Packard Alternate No

San Diego County Regional Airport April Boling Member No Authority VACANT Alternate --

Garry Bonelli Member Yes San Diego Unified Port District Michael Zucchet Alternate No

ADVISORY MEMBERS

Cory Binns Member Yes Caltrans Ann Fox Alternate No

Erica Pinto Member Yes SCTCA Allen Lawson Member No

Matt Tucker NCTD Yes Other Attendees Paul Jablonski MTS Yes

Ex Officio Steve Vaus Board Vice Chair Yes

4 AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-3 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: INFORMATION

TransNet SMART GROWTH INCENTIVE PROGRAM AND File Number 3300100 ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION GRANT PROGRAM: QUARTERLY STATUS UPDATE

Introduction

The TransNet Extension Ordinance and Expenditure Plan, approved by voters in November 2004, includes the Smart Growth Incentive Program (SGIP) and Active Transportation Grant Program (ATGP). The purpose of this report is to provide information on the quarterly status of the SGIP, ATGP, and Active Transportation Grant Program/Active Transportation Program Funds Exchange Projects for the period of July 1, 2017, through September 30, 2017 (Attachment 1).

Discussion

Smart Growth Incentive Program

The SGIP provides funding through a competitive process to the region’s 18 cities and the County of San Diego for transportation-related infrastructure and planning projects that support smart growth and transit-oriented development in Smart Growth Opportunity Areas. The SGIP provides funding to projects that catalyze compact, mixed-use development focused around public transit and increase housing and transportation choices around the region.

Active Transportation Grant Program

The ATGP provides funding through a competitive process to the region’s 18 cities and the County of San Diego for projects that encourage the increased use of active modes of transportation, including biking and walking. Projects promote bike and pedestrian connectivity to transit, schools, retail centers, parks, employment areas, and other community gathering places.

Summary to Date

Since these two programs were launched in 2009, the Board of Directors has awarded more than $50 million in TransNet funds, leveraging over $34 million in local matching funds, for a total investment of over $80 million throughout the San Diego region. Through the three funding cycles issued to date, over 100 SGIP and ATGP projects have been awarded funding, including 43 SGIP grants, (23 capital grants and 20 planning grants) and 64 ATGP grants (34 capital grants and 30 planning, bike parking, and educational grants). Of these projects, 76 have been completed. This quarterly report tracks the projects that are still underway and projects that have been completed in the current funding cycle. Information on projects completed in prior cycles can be found at sandag.org/sgatgrants. Active Transportation Grant Program/Active Transportation Program Funds Exchange Projects

In 2013, the Governor signed legislation creating the California Active Transportation Program (ATP) to encourage increased use of active modes of transportation, such as biking and walking. The ATP is administered by the California Transportation Commission (CTC). The ATP is composed of a mixture of state and federal funds. Projects that receive ATP funding must obtain federal environmental clearance. Both SANDAG and local jurisdictions, among others, are eligible recipients of ATP funds.

SANDAG often submits ATP applications for regional bike projects that contain TransNet funds as a match, and these projects have already begun the process for obtaining federal environmental clearance. In many cases, the local jurisdiction projects that are submitted for ATP funding have not undergone the federal regulatory process and can face a time-consuming process to receive the necessary clearance. In order to reduce the administrative burden associated with federal funding requirements for those local jurisdiction projects, SANDAG received approval from the CTC to exchange ATP funds with TransNet funds for successful local jurisdiction submissions during the 2014 and 2015 ATP cycles. This action consolidated the allocation of federal ATP funds for local jurisdiction projects into the SANDAG projects, and transferred the TransNet funds from the SANDAG projects to the local jurisdiction projects. Consistent with other TransNet-funded projects, SANDAG monitors progress on the local ATGP/ATP Exchange Projects through these quarterly reports.

SANDAG and the CTC have approved the exchange of $10.7 million in TransNet funds for nine projects (seven capital grants and two planning grants) since the beginning of the ATP. Of these projects, three have been completed.

Overall Program Status and Amendment Requests

During this quarterly reporting period (July 1, 2017, through September 30, 2017), three projects have been completed. Two ATGP projects have been completed: the City of Oceanside’s Bike/Bus Safety Public Outreach Project and the City of Santee’s Citywide Bike Lanes Project. One SGIP project has been completed: the City of San Diego’s Grantville Trolley Station/Alvarado Creek Enhancement Project.

As of September 30, 2017, all projects are on schedule except for one ATGP project and two SGIP projects. A six-month schedule amendment was approved administratively by SANDAG staff per SANDAG Board Policy No. 035: Competitive Grant Program Procedures for the County of San Diego’s Active Transportation Plan ATGP project, and two SGIP formal schedule extension amendments are being requested for approval by the Regional Planning Committee at its March 2, 2018, meeting, for the City of San Diego’s Pacific Beach Greenways, Parks and Transit project and the City of La Mesa’s North Spring Street Smart Growth Corridor project. Attachment 1 (Exhibits A and B) provides the status of SGIP and ATGP projects currently underway.

In addition, all TransNet ATGP/ATP Funds Exchange Projects are on schedule. Attachment 1 (Exhibit C) provides the status of Exchange Projects currently underway.

2 Description of Proposed Amendments

The Pacific Beach Greenways, Parks and Transit project consists of an SGIP planning grant that proposes to engage the community to expand community open space and improve multi-modal circulation by identifying new public spaces, improving mobility, supporting transit, and fostering development in an existing smart growth area. In a review of project deliverables in late summer 2017, City of San Diego staff determined the work completed to that point in time was not fully addressing the community mobility needs for the project area and the goals of the SGIP grant. The City of San Diego is requesting a 12-month schedule extension for its Pacific Beach Greenways, Parks and Transit project. The requested schedule extension would allow additional time for City of San Diego staff to refine the consultant scope of work to ensure the project and resulting deliverables would fulfill community needs and address the streets and pedestrian/bicycle facilities in the project area as an interconnected mobility system, and identify opportunity sites for public space improvements.

This is the second schedule extension amendment for this City of San Diego project. The first six- month schedule extension was approved administratively per SANDAG Board Policy No. 035. With this additional extension, the project would be completed within 42 months of its Notice to Proceed, which exceeds the timeline of 36 months permitted for planning projects in Board Policy No. 035. Per Section 3 of Board Policy No. 035, the appropriate policy committee, in this case the Regional Planning Committee, reviews and considers SGIP schedule extension amendments for approval based on the extenuating circumstances that the grantee could not have reasonably foreseen. The City of San Diego’s SGIP schedule amendment request details the circumstances resulting in the request for additional time to complete the project and includes a revised Scope of Work, Schedule, and Budget for the project. The requested amendment is for a schedule extension only; no additional funds are requested. The City of San Diego anticipates project completion in summer 2019.

The City of La Mesa’s North Spring Street Smart Growth Corridor project consists of an SGIP capital grant intended to upgrade infrastructure at an existing automobile railroad crossing to allow for a safer pedestrian crossing, providing a multi-modal link to the regional transit center and to Downtown La Mesa. Enhancements include Americans with Disabilities Act-compliant ramps, high- visibility cross walks, lighting, safety fencing, a Class III bicycle route with sharrow markings along the corridor, a pedestrian railroad crossing, and sidewalk improvements. The City of La Mesa is currently working with the Metropolitan Transit System (MTS) and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to address the railroad crossing, reach consensus on procedures necessary for the proposed infrastructure enhancements, and determine next steps. Coordination between agencies is taking longer than expected, which has impacted the project schedule.

The City of La Mesa is requesting a 12-month schedule extension for its North Spring Street Smart Growth Corridor project. The requested schedule extension would allow additional time for City of La Mesa staff to coordinate with MTS and the CPUC. The City of La Mesa anticipates project completion in summer 2019.

These amendment requests were presented to the Independent Taxpayer Oversight Committee (ITOC) at its meeting on February 14, 2018. The ITOC did not express concerns regarding the amendments.

3 Grant Monitoring and Oversight – Project Withdrawal

SANDAG Board Policy No. 035 sets forth the process to extend project completion deadlines. Staff reviews quarterly status updates to ensure that grantees are making timely progress with respect to the key milestones identified in Board Policy No. 035.

The “Watch List” column in the status summaries (Attachment 1) is used to identify those grantees in danger of missing their scheduled milestone dates that have not yet worked with staff to take corrective action. Delays in tasks leading up to either the award of a contract or project completion milestones also may result in placement of grantees on the Watch List.

One project has been added to the Watch List. Civic San Diego’s Sixth Avenue Bridge Feasibility and Conceptual Design project has been experiencing delays in project tasks due to challenges in completing an Interchange Control Evaluation required by Caltrans to analyze transportation alternatives adjacent to the Interstate 5 Sixth Avenue off-ramp. Staff has conducted two performance reviews with the Civic San Diego project team to monitor progress over time. As of the writing of this report, Civic San Diego has requested that the project be withdrawn (Attachment 2). This contract has expired, and the remaining funds will be returned to the SGIP for future use.

In addition, staff reviews project deliverables for consistency with the agreed-upon scopes of work. Status updates (including schedule amendments) for the grant programs are presented to the ITOC, Transportation Committee, and Regional Planning Committee, on a quarterly basis.

Next Steps

This TransNet SGIP and ATGP Quarterly Status Update will be provided to the Regional Planning Committee on March 2, 2018, at which time the Regional Planning Committee will be asked to approve the proposed SGIP amendment requests. The next quarterly status update is scheduled for presentation to the ITOC, Regional Planning Committee, and Transportation Committee in the May/June timeframe.

CHARLES “MUGGS” STOLL Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning

Attachments: 1. Status of TransNet SGIP, ATGP, and ATGP/ATP Funds Exchange Projects: Reporting period through September 30, 2017 2. Civic San Diego’s 6th Avenue Bridge Feasibility and Conceptual Design Project Withdrawal Request Letter

Key Staff Contact: Tracy Ferchaw, (619) 699-1977, [email protected]

4 Attachment 1 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Exhibit A

Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History

PLANNING: Supports mixed-use, Project IS making transit-oriented development in the timely progress Mid-Coast Trolley station areas by toward its revised Morena Boulevard preparing amendments to Linda Vista and milestones. 1 San Diego Station Area Study Clairemont Mesa planning documents, $400,000 01/21/2014 07/21/2018 No Am 1 (RPC) — Phase 2 processing rezones, and developing a 18-month extension programmatic environmental document. Cycle 2 (FY 2011 – 2013) (This project is the Am 2 (RPC) — only remaining Cycle 2 project) 12-month extension

PLANNING: Comprehensively analyzes the Project IS making El Cajon Transit study area surrounding the El Cajon timely progress Center Transit Center to plan a new vision for the toward its revised 2 El Cajon Transit-Supportive area to include transit-supportive land use, $400,000 12/14/2015 06/08/2018 No milestones. Land Use and improved mobility options, and an Am 1 (staff) — Mobility Plan enhanced public realm. 6-month extension Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

CAPITAL: Fills important gaps in the active transportation network immediately adjacent to the Escondido Transit Center Transit Center (ETC) where active transportation demand Project IS making Active is the highest. The project connects the timely progress 3 Escondido $1,270,000 12/03/2015 06/03/2019 No Transportation ETC to grocery, commercial, residential, toward its milestones. Connections and office centers to the west by No Amendments constructing a bridge for pedestrians and by providing bike lanes between Tulip and Quince streets. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

PLANNING: Builds upon the 2009 Master Plan taking the plans from a 30 percent Palm Avenue level to 100 percent construction drawings Project IS making Mixed-Use and for the project area (West End Sector). Imperial timely progress 4 Commercial Project details include public right-of-way $400,000 01/11/16 05/26/18 No Beach toward its milestones. Corridor Plan West improvements, traffic calming measures, End Sector and significant pedestrian, bicycle, and No Amendments transit improvements. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 5 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects – Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History CAPITAL: Enhances public infrastructure, encourages/supports future private development, contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gases, and serves as a Grantee IS requesting model smart growth project for the North Spring a 12-month schedule region. Enhancements include 5 La Mesa Street Smart $992,503 11/12/2015 07/12/2018 No extension ADA-compliant ramps, high-visibility cross Growth Corridor amendment. walks, lighting, safety fencing, a Class III bicycle route with sharrow markings along No Amendments the corridor, a pedestrian railroad crossing, and sidewalk improvements. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

CAPITAL: Realigns and reconstructs segments of Lemon Grove Avenue (LGA) Project IS making and North Avenue, the trolley/railroad timely progress crossing, and the LGA State Route 94 toward its revised Lemon Grove entrance/exit. Upgrades existing Lemon milestones. 6 Avenue substandard improvements at the $805,000 11/20/2015 11/20/2018 No Grove Am 1 (staff) — Realignment trolley/railroad crossing; water and storm 6-month extension drains; and underground San Diego Gas & Electric, Cox, and AT&T transmission Am 2 (RPC) — and/or distribution overhead lines. 12-month extension Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

PLANNING: Considers promoting mixed- use with increased residential densities and commercial intensities within the proposed boundaries consistent with the Project IS making adopted Downtown Village Specific Plan timely progress Broadway Lemon (DVSP). However, the proposed project toward its revised 7 Downtown Village $175,000 11/20/2015 11/20/2018 No Grove also will consider a form-based code for milestones. Specific Expansion the expansion as well as areas of the Am 1 (staff) — existing DVSP. This area falls within a 6-month extension walkable distance to the Lemon Grove Trolley Depot and several bus stops. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 6 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects – Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History CAPITAL: Includes the installation of new Project IS making Downtown wayfinding/gateway signs throughout the timely progress Westside Downtown and Westside Communities. National toward its revised 8 Wayfinding and The visually unified street space will attract $825,000 12/08/2015 03/08/2018 No City milestones. Community and support future development and serve Gateways as a model example for smart growth in Am 1 (staff) — the region. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) 6-month extension

CAPITAL: Enhances bicycling and pedestrian connections in the Downtown Project IS making and Westside Specific Plan areas and timely progress encourages smart growth development. National Westside Mobility toward its revised 9 Includes the installation of Class II bicycle $2,000,000 12/08/2015 06/08/2018 No City Improvements milestones. facilities, intersection curb bulb-outs at key Am 1 (staff) — intersections, and ADA-compliant curb 6-month extension ramps at intersections with improved crosswalks. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

PLANNING: Provides an overall update to the original plan adopted in 2005. Incorporates new elements related to smart growth, specifically Transportation Project IS making Demand Management and parking timely progress Downtown National policies. Revises land use zones and urban toward its revised 10 Specific Plan $320,000 12/09/2015 12/9/2017 No City design standards and recommends future milestones. Update implementation programs/projects in a Am 1 (staff) — manner that will provide direction for 6-month extension development that will create a unique sense of place in National City’s vibrant Downtown core. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 7 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects – Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History CAPITAL: Enhances the quality of Seagaze Drive and provides much needed Project IS making continuity with Mission Avenue through timely progress Seagaze Drive innovative smart growth supporting toward its revised 11 Oceanside Downtown infrastructure including: pedestrian bulb- $357,497 12/02/2015 12/02/2017 No milestones. Mobility Project outs, ADA-compliant ramps with truncated domes, rectangular rapid flashing beacons, Am 1 (staff) — enhanced crosswalks, and a raised 6-month extension pork-chop median. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

CAPITAL: Creates an approximately 30-foot wide pedestrian promenade/linear park. Project IS making Plans to link City College to Barrio Logan timely progress 14th Street through East Village, including connecting toward its revised San Diego Pedestrian several existing and future park sites. milestones. 12 (Civic Promenade $1,000,000 12/08/2015 01/8/2019 No Serves to connect Downtown’s densely Am 1 (RPC) — San Diego) Demonstration populated neighborhoods with enhanced location change Block landscaped corridors focused on improving Am 2 (staff) — pedestrian and other non-vehicular 6-month extension circulation. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

CAPITAL: Includes the design and Project IS making installation of wayfinding signs in the timely progress San Ysidro Port of Entry District to improve toward its revised the area's mobility and respond to changes San Ysidro milestones. 13 San Diego in the configuration of the Port of Entry. $350,000 12/04/2015 12/04/2018 No Wayfinding Signs Am 1 (staff) — Signs will help visitors easily locate public 6-month extension services, popular destinations, and transportation options. Am 2 (RPC) — Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) 12-months

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 8 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects – Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History

PLANNING: Will complete a Feasibility and On Watchlist.Request Conceptual Design study for an enhanced received from Civic pedestrian connection between San Diego to Sixth Avenue Downtown and Bankers Hill/Balboa Park. San Diego withdraw this project. Bridge Promenade The preliminary concept for this project 14 (Civic $200,000 12/08/2015 02/08/2018 Yes Remaining funding to Feasibility and includes an enhanced pedestrian pathway San Diego) be returned to SGIP. Conceptual Design or promenade from Downtown to

Balboa Park with treatments such as widened sidewalks, landscaping, benches, Am 1 (staff) — and trellises. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) 6-month extension

PLANNING: Expands community open space and improves multimodal circulation by identifying new public spaces, improves mobility, supports transit, and fosters Grantee IS requesting development in an existing smart growth a 12–month schedule Pacific Beach area. The study effort will include the extension 15 San Diego Greenways, Parks, creation of public open spaces, multimodal $400,000 12/04/2015 06/04/2018 No amendment and Transit infrastructure improvements that improve Am 1 (staff) — safety for all modes of travel and expand 6-month extension beach access, improvements to the beach boardwalk, and integration of arts and culture in urban design. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

PLANNING: Will produce an updated land Project IS making Kearny Mesa use and zoning strategy to expand timely progress Smart Growth employment potential of the project area toward its revised 16 San Diego $105,000 12/04/2015 12/04/2017 No Employment and allow complementary residential uses milestones. Area Plan in a mixed-use context. Am 1 (staff) — Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) 6-month extension

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 9 Status of TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Grant Program Projects – Reporting period through September 30, 2017 Status and Grant Contract Contract Watch Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amendment Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* History CAPITAL: This infrastructure and street scape project is located in Vista's Town Center on South Santa Fe Avenue. It is a complete and livable streets revitalization project that includes a road diet that will reduce Project IS making Paseo Santa Fe the street width from five lanes to two timely progress 17 Vista $2,000,0001 11/19/2015 05/19/2019 No Phase II lanes; install new curbs, gutters, and toward its milestones. enhanced sidewalks; construct No Amendments roundabouts at key intersections; and install decorative elements such as landscaping, street lights, street signs, and pedestrian furniture. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Cycle 3 Smart Growth Incentive Program Projects (Completed)

PLANNING: Restores the Alvarado Creek channel to a naturalized creek with bridges and walking/cycling trails, the Grantville Trolley pedestrian and bicycle experience between Station/ PROJECT future transit-oriented developments and 18 San Diego Alvarado Creek $400,000 COMPLETE — the transit stop will be greatly enhanced. Enhancement AUGUST 2017 The station’s full potential cannot be fully Project realized without supporting amenities such as a restored creek. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

* Watch List Projects are projects not making timely progress toward their milestones (as defined in Board Policy No. 035: Competitive Grant Program Procedures) and that have not yet sought corrective action. Delays in tasks leading up to either the award of a contract or project completion may cause a project to be placed on the watch list.

1 The Vista Paseo Santa Fe Phase II Project also received $3.7 million through the Active Transportation Grant Program-Active Transportation Program Funds Exchange awarded in October 2015 (see Exhibit C). Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 10 Status of TransNet/Transportation Development Act Active Transportation Grant Program Projects Reporting Period through September 30, 2017 Exhibit B

Grant Contract Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* Amendment History CAPITAL: Provides enhanced facilities for pedestrians, transit users, and bicyclists. Carlsbad The proposed project will establish a new Project IS making Boulevard and standard for a pedestrian scramble, provide timely progress Tamarack Avenue and demand actuated “No Turn on Red” toward its revised 1 Carlsbad $270,0002 12/08/2015 11/08/2017 No Pedestrian blank out signs, modify traffic detection to milestones. Improvement count cyclists, and provide unique clearance Am 1 (staff) — Project times. Bicyclists will be provided with 6-month extension northbound and southbound bike boxes. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Project IS making Multimodal PLANNING: Develops plans to promote and timely progress Chula Pedestrian/ upgrade interconnected pedestrian and 2 $250,000 07/17/2017 03/16/2020 No towards its Vista Bikeway Master bicycle transportation facilities within the milestones. Plan City of Chula Vista. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) No Amendments

PLANNING: Provides a complete multimodal transportation network in Coronado that accommodates the needs of Coronado all users and modes. Specifically, the Project IS making Comprehensive Comprehensive Active Transportation timely progress 3 Coronado Active Strategy will include a pedestrian master $90,000 02/01/2015 11/01/2018 No towards its Transportation plan component, an updated bicycle milestones. Strategy master plan component, and the No Amendments development of Safe Routes to School and traffic calming recommendations for the City of Coronado. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

2 The Carlsbad Boulevard and Tamarack Avenue Pedestrian Improvement Project received both Cycle 3 Active Transportation Grant Program Funds and 2015 Active Transportation Grant Program-Active Transportation Program Exchange Funds (see Exhibit C). Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 11 Status of TransNet/ Transportation Development Act Active Transportation Grant Program Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Grant Contract Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* Amendment History CAPITAL: Provides active transportation Escondido Creek connectivity for the Escondido Creek Trail Trail Signalized in accordance with the Escondido Creek Project IS making Bike/Pedestrian Trail Master Plan. The project also includes timely progress 4 Escondido $335,000 12/03/2015 06/03/2019 No Crossing at a bridge that will provide a sidewalk, toward its milestones. El Norte Parkway decorative fencing, a safety barrier, bike No Amendments Project lanes, and buffers across the Escondido Creek. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

PLANNING: Develops plans for updating Project IS making Lemon ADA Transition ADA compliance to existing facilities timely progress 5 $50,000 07/21/2017 07/20/2019 No Grove Plan within the City of Lemon Grove. toward its milestones. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016) No Amendments

CAPITAL: Provides additional pedestrian lighting enhancements at 14 existing mid-block pedestrian crossing locations throughout the city, creates a safe Project IS making environment for pedestrians through Citywide timely progress complete street design principles, and National Midblock Crossing toward its revised 6 encourages the development for a $625,000 07/01/2016 6/30/2018 No City Enhancements milestones. well-connected pedestrian network. Project Improvements include new solar-powered Am 1 (staff) — 6- lights and curb bulb-outs, enhanced month extension crosswalk striping, and upgrades to the curb ramp to be ADA compliant. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

CAPITAL: Installs new concrete bulb-outs, pedestrian ramps, pedestrian warning Project IS making signage, a new ladder crosswalk, and Riverwalk Drive timely progress 7 Santee enhanced area lighting. It also will add $216,900 12/03/2015 07/03/2018 No Crossing Project toward its milestones. parking lanes to narrow the lanes and add sharrows down the length of the project. No Amendments Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 12 Status of TransNet/ Transportation Development Act Active Transportation Grant Program Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Grant Contract Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* Amendment History CAPITAL: Reduces the number of lanes on Stevens/ Stevens/Valley Avenue in order to provide Valley Avenue for bike lanes along all of Stevens/ Project IS making Corridor — Valley Avenue to construct sidewalks in Solana timely progress 8 Bicycle and missing locations, provide enhanced $500,000 11/12/2015 05/12/2018 No Beach toward its milestones. Pedestrian crosswalks, construct curb ramps consistent Improvement with current standards, and provide traffic No Amendments Project calming features to slow down traffic. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 13 Status of TransNet/ Transportation Development Act Active Transportation Grant Program Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Grant Contract Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* Amendment History

Cycle 3 Active Transportation Grant Program Projects (Completed)

EDUCATION: Creates a positive multimedia Walk + Bike campaign and coordinates and promotes Chula Vista new walking and biking infrastructure PROJECT Chula Education projects to increase awareness on bicycle 9 $100,000 COMPLETE — Vista Encouragement and pedestrian access, educate businesses JANUARY 2017 Awareness and residents, and promote alternative Campaign transportation choices and improved safety in Chula Vista.

SUPPORT: Circulate San Diego and the City of El Cajon will initiate a multimedia, PROJECT multilingual, multimodal, and multifaceted 10 El Cajon Be Safe, El Cajon $50,000 COMPLETE — education, encouragement, and awareness DECEMBER 2016 campaign to encourage active transportation and pedestrian safety for residents.

BIKE PARKING: Installs bicycle racks National City throughout National City's bicycle network. PROJECT National Bicycle Parking The bicycle racks will provide cyclists with 11 $50,000 COMPLETE — City Enhancements safe, secure, and convenient parking for end- JUNE 2017 (Bike Parking) of-trip storage and enhance regional and local bicycle networks.

EDUCATION: Creates public service messages (bus wraps) on 15 buses to: (1) educate the public on the meaning of Bike/Bus Safety "Sharrows" and (2) alert cyclists to the PROJECT 12 Oceanside Public Outreach danger of attempting to pass buses on the $90,000 COMPLETE — Project right side. Program funding will allow JULY 2017 wraps on 15 buses for six months and will reach approximately 600,000 people per month. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 14 Status of TransNet/ Transportation Development Act Active Transportation Grant Program Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Grant Contract Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Amount Execution Date Expiration Date List* Amendment History CAPITAL: Provides for bike lanes along Fanita Parkway from Mast Boulevard to Carlton Oaks Boulevard, Cuyamaca Street from Riverpark Drive to Mast Boulevard, El Nopal from Magnolia Avenue to eastern PROJECT Citywide Bike city limits, Fanita Drive from Prospect 13 Santee $156,000 COMPLETE — Lanes Project Avenue to southern city limits, AUGUST 2017 Riverview Parkway from Mission Gorge Road to Town Center Boulevard, and Woodside Avenue North from SR 67 off-ramp to eastern city limits. Cycle 3 (FY 2014 – 2016)

* Watch List Projects are projects not making timely progress toward their milestones (as defined in Board Policy No. 035) and that have not yet sought corrective action. Delays in tasks leading up to either the award of a contract or project completion may cause a project to be placed on the watch list.

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 15 Status of TransNet Active Transportation Grant Program/Active Transportation Program Funds Exchange Projects Reporting Period through September 30, 2017 Exhibit C

Contract Grant Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Expiration Amount Execution Date List* Amendment History Date PLANNING: Provides a plan using Complete F Street Project IS making Street principles, improves access to nearby Chula Promenade timely progress 1 recreational facilities, and promotes water $491,000 08/14/2015 08/14/2018 No Vista Streetscape toward its milestones. conservation through improved landscaping Master Plan features. Awarded November 2014 No Amendments

CAPITAL: Constructs Class I and Class II bike Project IS making 4th Street facilities that connect the timely progress 2 Escondido Community $1,092,000 09/03/2015 03/03/2019 No Escondido Creek Trail and Inland Rail Trail. toward its milestones. Corridor Awarded November 2014 No Amendments

Project IS making CAPITAL: Implements pedestrian timely progress improvements and installs approximately National Division Street toward its revised 3 one mile of Class II buffered bike lanes $875,000 08/21/2015 11/21/2017 No City Road Diet milestones. along Division Street. AM 1 (staff) — Awarded November 2014 6-month extension

PLANNING: Prepares a comprehensive Grantee is requesting master plan and policy document for the Active an administrative County of unincorporated area to guide the 4 Transportation $500,000 06/12/2015 06/12/2018 No 6-month schedule San Diego development and maintenance of active Plan extension. transportation infrastructure and supportive No Amendments programs. Awarded November 2014

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 16 Status of TransNet Active Transportation Grant Program/Actiev Transportation Program Funds Exchange Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Contract Grant Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Expiration Amount Execution Date List* Amendment History Date

CAPITAL: Provides enhanced facilities for pedestrians, transit users, and bicyclists. The Carlsbad proposed project will establish a new Boulevard and standard for a pedestrian scramble, provide Project IS making Tamarack Avenue and demand actuated “No Turn on Red” timely progress 5 Carlsbad $1,054,0003 05/09/2016 05/09/2019 No Pedestrian blank out signs, modify traffic detection to toward its milestones. Improvement count cyclists, and provide unique clearance No Amendments Project times. Bicyclists will be provided with northbound and southbound bike boxes. Awarded October 2015.

CAPITAL: This infrastructure and streetscape project is located in Vista's Town Center on South Santa Fe Avenue. It is a complete and livable streets revitalization project that includes a road diet that will reduce the Project IS making Paseo Santa Fe street width from five lanes to two lanes; timely progress 6 Vista $3,700,0004 04/12/2016 10/12/2019 No Phase II install new curbs, gutters, and enhanced toward its milestones. sidewalks; construct roundabouts at key No Amendments intersections; and install decorative elements such as landscaping, street lights, street signs, and pedestrian furniture. Awarded October 2015

3 The Carlsbad Boulevard and Tamarack Avenue Pedestrian Improvement Project also received $270,000 in Cycle 3 of the Active Transportation Grant Program (see Exhibit B).

4 The Vista Paseo Santa Fe Phase II Project also received $2,000,000 in Cycle 3 of the Smart Growth Incentive Program (see Exhibit A). Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 17 Status of TransNet Active Transportation Grant Program/Actiev Transportation Program Funds Exchange Projects – Reporting Period through September 30, 2017

Contract Grant Contract Watch Status and Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Expiration Amount Execution Date List* Amendment History Date

Cycle 3 Active Transportation Grant Program Projects (Completed)

Pedestrian and Bike facilities CAPITAL: Constructs street, sidewalk, and along bicycle lane improvements to create PROJECT 7 Del Mar Camino del Mar, continuous, aligned sidewalks and $812,000 COMPLETE — Jimmy Durante, improved bicycle lanes within public JANUARY 2017 and right-of-way for better mobility Via de la Valle

CAPITAL: Constructs streetscape Bikeway Village improvements and a Class II bike facility Bayshore Bikeway along 13th Street. Improvements will be PROJECT Imperial 8 Access implemented in conjunction with the $1,800,000 COMPLETE — Beach Enhancement adaptive reuse of two commercial APRIL 2017 Project warehouse structures into a commercial/retail-serving "Bikeway Village."

CAPITAL: Implements a road diet and Euclid Avenue provides approximately 1.7 miles of a PROJECT National Bicycle and 9 Class II buffered bike lane along $425,000 COMPLETE — City Pedestrian Euclid Avenue between Cervantes Avenue MAY 2017 Enhancements and East 24th Street.

Am = Amendment RPC = Regional Planning Committee 18 Attachment 2

19 20 21

AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-4 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: INFORMATION

TransNet ENVIRONMENTAL MITIGATION PROGRAM: File Number 1200300 LAND MANAGEMENT GRANT PROGRAM QUARTERLY STATUS UPDATE

Introduction

The Board of Directors entered into a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with state and federal agencies on the implementation of the TransNet Environmental Mitigation Program (EMP). Originally signed on February 22, 2008, the MOA was most recently amended on April 26, 2013.

A provision of the MOA allocates $4 million annually for ten years to implement regional habitat management and monitoring efforts to help maintain the region’s biological integrity, thus helping to avoid the future listing of endangered species. The Board of Directors allocates a portion of the $4 million annually for the TransNet EMP Land Management Grant Program to assist land managers in filling funding gaps to promote regional priorities. The purpose of this report is to provide information to the Transportation Committee on the quarterly status of active land management grant projects (Attachment 1).

Discussion

Since the program’s inception, 98 land management grants totaling approximately $14.6 million in TransNet funding have been awarded to land management entities in the region through a competitive grant program. Eligible applicants include land managers from private and nonprofit organizations, local jurisdictions, and other government agencies.

No projects were completed during this reporting period (October 1 to December 31, 2017). Attachment 1 provides the status of the 22 active land management grants. The contracts for the additional 76 awarded grants have been closed-out and have no further billing.

Projects under the EMP Land Management Grant Program are placed on the “watch list” if a grantee is not making timely progress toward their milestones (which are defined in SANDAG Board Policy No. 035: Competitive Grant Program Procedures) and the grantee has not yet sought corrective action. Delays in tasks leading up to either the award of a contract or project completion may place grantees on the watch list. As of the date of this quarterly report, no projects are currently on the watch list.

Grant Oversight

SANDAG staff provides ongoing oversight of projects under the TransNet-funded EMP Land Management Grant Program through review of quarterly reports and invoices. Annual and quarterly status updates are provided to the Independent Taxpayer Oversight Committee (ITOC) and the Regional Planning and Transportation Committees.

Staff reviews quarterly reports to ensure that grantees are making timely progress with respect to Board Policy No. 035 provisions and to ensure that the project submission of deliverables matches the scopes of work in their grant contract agreements.

Next Steps

The next quarterly status report (covering January 1 to March 31, 2018) is expected to be presented in June 2018 to the ITOC and Regional Planning and Transportation Committees.

CHARLES “MUGGS” STOLL Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning

Attachment: 1. Status of Active TransNet EMP Land Management Grant Program Projects: Reporting period October 1, 2017, to December 31, 2017

Key Staff Contact: Sarah Pierce, (619) 699-7312, [email protected]

2 Status of Active TransNet EMP Land Management Grant Program Projects: Reporting period Oct.1 to Dec. 31, 2017 Attachment 1

Contract Contract Grant Watch Contract # Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Execution Expiration Status/ Amendment History Amount List* Date Date

7th Cycle - FY 2015 Increase the amount of suitable habitat and improve Project IS making timely progress toward Otay River Valley and connectivity for the coastal cactus wren along Otay River 1 5004731 City of Chula Vista $189,863 09/17/15 09/17/18 No their milestones. Salt Creek Cactus Wren 3 Valley and Salt Creek through restoration and No Amendments. enhancement of degraded habitat areas.

Re-treatment of Arundo and maintenance of the right- San Luis Rey, Santa Project IS making timely progress toward Mission Resource of-entry (ROE) database, to allow re-treatments to occur 2 5004732 Margarita & San $300,000 09/28/15 09/28/18 No their milestones. Conservation District on over 350 public and private properties in these Dieguito Watersheds No Amendments. watersheds.

Restore and enhance areas of degraded habitat along Project IS making timely progress toward Otay River Valley Cactus Otay River Valley to increase the amount of suitable 3 5004730 County of San Diego $66,840 10/20/15 10/20/18 No their milestones. Wren habitat and improve connectivity for the coastal cactus No Amendments. wren.

Project IS making timely progress toward San Diego Audubon Maintain and expand certain extant small and large 4 5004729 Nuttall's Lotus $110,017 09/14/15 09/14/18 No their milestones. Society populations of Nuttall’s Lotus within Mission Bay Park. No Amendments.

Protect sensitive species, including Mexican flannelbush Project IS making timely progress toward United States Fish and Mother Miguel and critical habitat on the southwestern slope of 5 5004736 $21,454 12/01/15 12/01/18 No their milestones. Wildlife Service Mountain Mother Miguel Mountain, while managing public access No Amendments. and awareness.

Implement active restoration of critical cactus wren habitat in the Lake Hodges area and developing a North Project IS making timely progress toward 6 5004728 San Diego Zoo Global Cactus Wren 2015 County Cactus Nursery that will supply local native cacti $230,721 09/22/15 08/28/18 No their milestones. to restoration projects throughout the region for 2 One Amendment- Six Month Extension years. 8th Cycle - FY 2017

Closure of one of the last remaining gaps in the Proctor Project IS making timely progress toward California Department Proctor Valley OHV Valley OHV barrier, decreasing unauthorized access to 7 5004941 $50,000 8/1/17 12/31/18 No their milestones. of Fish and Wildlife Barrier OHV activities and subsequent impacts to sensitive No Amendments. species.

Enhance and improve Quino butterfly habitat conditions and connectivity by closing roads to vehicle Project IS making timely progress toward Quino Habitat 8 5004942 County of San Diego activity, preventing off-road vehicle use, installing $44,000 1/27/17 7/27/18 No their milestones. Restoration fencing and signage to limit access, and controlling and No Amendments. removing non-native grasses.

*Watch List Projects are those grantees not making timely progress toward their milestones (which are defined in Board Policy No. 035) and not yet sought corrective action. Delays in tasks leading up to either the award of a contract or project completion may place grantees on the watch list.

3 Status of Active TransNet EMP Land Management Grant Program Projects: Reporting period Oct.1 to Dec. 31, 2017

Contract Contract Grant Watch Contract # Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Execution Expiration Status/ Amendment History Amount List* Date Date

Increase the quality of habitat and improve connectivity Project IS making timely progress toward 9 5004943 City of Chula Vista Salt Creek Cactus Wren for the coastal cactus wren along Salt Creek through $49,972 2/13/17 8/13/18 No their milestones. shrub thinning within suitable wren habitat. No Amendments.

Installation and maintenance of 5,000 linear feet of Project IS making timely progress toward fencing to protect vernal pools at the Spring 10 5004945 City of San Diego Vernal Pool Restoration $50,000 2/15/17 8/15/18 No their milestones. Canyon/Goat Mesa complex from further off-road No Amendments. damage.

Enhancement of habitat for coastal cactus wren at a 20 Project IS making timely progress toward Bernardo Bay Cactus acre site in Bernardo Bay through weed removal, 11 5004946 City of San Diego $50,000 3/8/17 6/8/18 No their milestones. Wren Opuntia planting, and installation of fencing and No Amendments. signage to control access points.

Treatment of invasive purple veldtgrass throughout the Project IS making timely progress toward Chaparral Lands 12 5004947 Crest Canyon Veldt Grass Crest Canyon Preserve, achieving greater than 90% $49,991 4/5/17 10/5/18 No their milestones. Conservancy reduction. No Amendments.

Arundo treatment and removal throughout an 11 acre Project IS making timely progress toward Lakeside's River Park Riparian Restoration parcel of "old growth" riparian forest along the San 13 5004948 $48,895 2/22/17 8/22/18 No their milestones. Conservancy &Arundo Removal Diego River and coordinated development of a control No Amendments. plan to prevent re-infestation.

Begin phase 1 of eradication of perennial veldtgrass Project IS making timely progress toward San Elijo Lagoon 14 5004949 Veldt Grass Removal from SELER, reducing cover to less than 10% (100% $49,003 2/13/17 8/13/18 No their milestones. Conservancy reduction in coastal dunes). No Amendments.

Surveying and monitoring to determine bat species composition around the Sweetwater Marsh Unit of San Project IS making timely progress toward Living Coast Discovery 15 5004950 Pallid Bat Diego Bay NWR. Surveys will be used to develop a site- $15,810 2/21/17 8/21/18 No their milestones. Center specific management plan to be submitted for No Amendments. implementation by land owners.

Invasive plant control in priority habitat areas within the Project IS making timely progress toward San Diego Audubon Silverwood Wildlife reserve, reducing invasive cover by 90%. Approx. 65 16 5004951 $36,301 2/15/17 8/15/18 No their milestones. Society Sanctuary acres of invasive species hotspots are to be treated with No Amendments. herbicide and 5 acres via hand management.

Work with local authorities and organizations to address homeless encampments along the San Diego Project IS making timely progress toward Lakeside's River Park 17 5004952 San Diego River Channel River between Santee and Lakeside. Coordinate $49,530 2/22/17 8/22/18 No their milestones. Conservancy volunteer river cleanups and public education No Amendments. campaigns.

4 Status of Active TransNet EMP Land Management Grant Program Projects: Reporting period Oct.1 to Dec. 31, 2017

Contract Contract Grant Watch Contract # Grantee Project Description of Project Activities Execution Expiration Status/ Amendment History Amount List* Date Date

Seed collection, processing, and maintenance for 8 plant species within for seed banking purposes in addition to Project IS making timely progress toward 18 5004953 San Diego Zoo Global Native Seed Bank bulking and propagation efforts required to provide $492,396 3/13/17 3/13/20 No their milestones. seed for regional restoration projects; 3 of which are No Amendments. part of FY17 LMG cycle.

Seed collection and bulking for two rare species and the Project IS making timely progress toward Chaparral Lands 19 5004954 Otay Mesa Rare Plants establishment of new occurrences for five MSP species $141,319 4/5/17 4/5/22 No their milestones. Conservancy through seeding, planting, and maintenance. No Amendments.

Restoration of 19 acres of vernal pool and coastal sage scrub habitat in Proctor Valley specific to the needs of Project IS making timely progress toward Chaparral Lands Proctor Valley Vernal 20 5004955 MSP species and the establishment of two high-priority $393,864 4/5/17 4/5/22 No their milestones. Conservancy Pools and Uplands MSP plant species through collection, bulking, seeding, No Amendments. and maintenance efforts.

Phase 2 of North County Dunes Restoration Project focusing on the implementation and completion of site Project IS making timely progress toward San Elijo Lagoon specific plan for Cardiff State Beach and invasive 21 5004956 North County Dunes 2 $197,799 2/13/17 5/13/20 No their milestones. Conservancy management and support for existing coastal dune and No Amendments. bluff species at South Carlsbad State Beach Campground.

Improve and expand areas occupied by San Diego Project IS making timely progress toward Mission Trails Regional San Diego Thornmint 22 5004957 thornmint in MTRP by restoring and enhancing $72,265 3/21/17 3/21/20 No their milestones. Park Foundation Restoration degraded habitat. No Amendments.

AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-5 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: INFORMATION

SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 REGIONAL PLAN – File Number 3102000 WHITE PAPERS

Introduction

To help inform the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan), a series of white papers were prepared, consistent with the 2019 Regional Plan vision and goals approved by the Board of Directors.

The Emerging Technologies white paper was presented to the Transportation and Regional Planning Committees at their meetings on February 2, 2018. The Public Health, Economic Prosperity, and Climate Change white paper outlines were discussed by the Regional Planning and Transportation Committees at their December 2017 meetings; these white papers have been updated and are included as Attachments 1-3 of this report.

CHARLES “MUGGS” STOLL Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning

Attachments: 1. Public Health White Paper 2. Economic Prosperity White Paper 3. Climate Change White Paper

Key Staff Contacts: Phil Trom, (619) 699-7330, [email protected] Carolina Ilic, (619) 699-1989, [email protected] Jim Miller, (619) 699-7325, [email protected] Allison Wood, (619) 699-1973, [email protected]

Attachment 1

20182018

Public Health

WHITE PAPER SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

February 23, 2018

Contents

Introduction ...... 4 History of Public Health and Urban Planning ...... 5 Why Public Health Matters ...... 6 Chronic Diseases ...... 6 Traffic Fatalities ...... 6 Air Quality...... 6 Cost Implications ...... 7 How the Built Environment Affects Health ...... 7 Active Transportation and Public Transit ...... 7 Access to Parks and Recreation ...... 8 Complete Neighborhoods ...... 8 Access to Affordable Housing ...... 8 Homelessness ...... 9 Environmental Quality ...... 9 Access to Healthy Food ...... 10 Access to Regional Food Systems ...... 11 Access to Healthcare Facilities ...... 12 Public Safety ...... 12 Existing National, State, Regional, and Local Efforts ...... 13 National Plans and Programs ...... 13 Joint Call to Action to Promote Healthy Communities ...... 13 American Planning Association, Plan4Health, and Planners4Health Programs ...... 13 American Association of Retired Persons and World Health Organization Network of Age- Friendly Cities and Communities ...... 13 State Plans and Programs ...... 14 General Plan Guidelines ...... 14 Health in All Policies ...... 14 Regional Plans and Programs ...... 14 San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan...... 14 TransNet Sales Tax Ordinance ...... 14 Regional Complete Streets Policy ...... 15 Active Transportation Implementation Strategy Framework ...... 15 Safe Routes to School Programs ...... 16 Safe Routes to Transit ...... 16 San Diego Regional Bike Plan ...... 16 iCommute Transportation Demand Management Program ...... 16 Regional Mobility Hub Implementation Strategy ...... 16

2 3

Healthy Works Project ...... 17 Public Health Elements for General Plans ...... 17 San Diego County Childhood Obesity Initiative ...... 17 Live Well San Diego ...... 18 Border Health Program ...... 18 Public Health Data and Tools ...... 18 The California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool ...... 18 Healthy Communities Data and Indicators Project ...... 19 Live Well San Diego Data Access Portal and Open Performance Dashboard ...... 19 Health-Related Performance Measures in San Diego Forward: The 2015 Regional Plan ...... 19 Interrelationships to Other Policy Areas ...... 19 Public Health and Climate Change ...... 19 Public Health and Social Equity/Environmental Justice ...... 20 Public Health and Economic Prosperity ...... 20 Public Health and Emerging Technologies ...... 21 Policy Considerations ...... 21

3 4

Introduction

“Transportation impacts more than just how Americans get from place to place. It influences physical activity, accessibility to goods and services, air pollution, greenhouse gases, stress levels, family budgets, and our amount of leisure time, as well as a host of other lifestyle and health variables…While transportation may not immediately be thought of as a key determinant of health, transportation policies and accompanying land use patterns have far-reaching implications for our risk of disease and injury”1 – Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s Center to Prevent Childhood Obesity Working Group

As the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) develops regional policies and programs to guide transportation infrastructure investments over the next three decades, an understanding of the public health benefits and impacts of those decisions will support the agency’s efforts to create a safe, viable, and efficient transportation system for the San Diego region. The investments, in turn, should support improved public health outcomes.

Public health has been considered in various large-scale SANDAG planning efforts over the years. During the development of San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan (2015 Regional Plan), SANDAG became more fully involved in working to connect the regional planning process to the public health domain through a U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) grant to the County of San Diego. This white paper expands upon previous efforts to identify approaches for achieving public health objectives, and will inform the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan).

According to the World Health Organization, health is a state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease and infirmity. Emphasizing the health benefits derived by improved mobility and access can better realize this comprehensive notion of health.

Evidence suggests that land use and transportation planning and policy have a direct impact on public health. Studies have consistently shown that people who live in compact, mixed-use, and walkable communities are less likely to be obese and hypertensive compared to people who live in auto-oriented communities.2 Research also has established a clear connection between built environment characteristics and chronic diseases such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and asthma, which, in 2007, accounted for at least $4 billion in direct healthcare expenditures in the San Diego region. These costs are projected to rise to $25 billion by 2050 if changes are not made.3 The transportation decisions made as part of the 2019 Regional Plan provide a significant opportunity to support changes to the built environment that can result in improved health outcomes.

The focus of public health practitioners has shifted away from 20th century infectious diseases, which generally have been controlled, toward chronic diseases, which now account for seven out of every ten deaths in the United States.4 Land use and transportation planning and policy decisions can influence public health outcomes related to a variety of factors, such as air quality, opportunities for physical activity, risk of injury, jobs, education, and access to everyday necessities such as grocery stores. In addition, both urban planners and public health practitioners are becoming increasingly aware of the need to reduce the incidence of traffic injuries involving people walking and biking as well as health disparities (the difference in health outcomes between people of varying ethnicities, education attainment, and/or income levels).

4 5

Over the past several years, there has been an increasing swell of support from a variety of professional organizations and government agencies, ranging from the local to the national levels, to incorporate public health considerations into the planning and development process. As a result, numerous cities, counties, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, other government entities, professional organizations, and non-profits have worked to incorporate techniques that focus on improving public health outcomes into their planning policies, programs, and projects.

This paper includes the following sections: a brief history of public health and urban planning; why public health matters; how the built environment affects public health; a list of current national, state, regional, and local efforts in the San Diego region; a list of available public health data and tools; a summary of the interrelationships between public health and climate change, social equity/environmental justice, economic prosperity, and emerging technologies; and policy considerations for the 2019 Regional Plan. This white paper serves as the basis for further integrating public health considerations into San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan.

History of Public Health and Urban Planning Modern urban planning grew out of concerns for public health in early 20th century cities where people lived next to farm animals, butcher shops, and heavy industries. In response to frequent outbreaks of contagious diseases such as tuberculosis and cholera, planners and health advocates established zoning regulations to separate incompatible uses and activities such as tanneries and butcher shops from residential neighborhoods. Shops, restaurants, and schools, however, remained integrated in the neighborhood, and people could still live relatively close to where they worked.5

After World War II, many factors, including a growing population, rising standards of living, the increasing popularity of the private automobile as the primary mode of transportation, and federal policies that encouraged homeownership led to a housing boom in the outskirts of existing cities. The construction of the national highway system further fueled a more dispersed land development pattern with employment and other uses leaving the inner cities as well. Single-family suburban homes on large lots became a reality for many middle-class families.

While highways provided convenient access to the suburbs, many of them cut through inner cities, separating and isolating many traditional neighborhoods. Lack of infrastructure investment and a declining population base in the central cities convinced many families that suburban neighborhoods were safer and healthier with cleaner air, lack of crime and blight, wide streets, and new homes.

As a predominant model for urban development, the walkable, compact, mixed-use neighborhoods, built on a grid street pattern with public facilities such as a school or a park at its core, were being replaced by the automobile-oriented suburbs, connected to consolidated retail and employment centers or public facilities by parkways or arterial streets with fast-moving traffic.6 Today, many people in the United States live in such neighborhoods.7

Traffic patterns are in line with this trend. Between 2008 and 2012, across the nation, people who walked to work declined from 5.6 percent to 2.8 percent while those who drove comprised nearly 90 percent.8 From 1969 to 2009, the number of children who walked or biked to school decreased from 48 percent to 13 percent. This drastic decline in children walking or biking to school may be directly related to growing obesity rates among children in the United States – now more than 33 percent. Parents cited concerns about traffic and safety as the key reasons they preferred to drive

5 6

their children to school.9 Ironically, between 10 percent to 14 percent of the morning commute-time traffic is generated by parents driving their children to school.10

Why Public Health Matters

Chronic Diseases Chronic disease rates among adults and children have reached epidemic levels. Seven out of ten deaths each year are from chronic diseases11 which include heart disease, asthma, diabetes, and cancer. Both obesity and being overweight are major risk factors for chronic diseases. According to the CDC, the percentage of the population in California that is obese increased from 18.7 percent in 2000 to 25 percent in 2016.12 The Open Data Network reported that in 2015, 22.6 percent of San Diego County residents were obese.13 Childhood obesity in the country has more than doubled in the last 30 years.14 In the San Diego region, more than one-third of fifth, seventh, and ninth grade children enrolled in public schools during the 2014 to 2015 academic year were overweight or obese.15 As with adults, poor nutrition and a lack of physical activity are cited as the primary causes. The built environment can contribute to obesity when it lacks places where people can be physically active or have access to healthy foods. Therefore, designing a built environment that reduces people’s barriers to making healthy choices is a key strategy for addressing the chronic disease epidemic in the San Diego region.

Traffic Fatalities In addition to chronic diseases, traffic fatalities also have become a major public health issue. In 2016, there were more than 37,000 traffic-related fatalities in the United States.16

In 2016, 239 people died in crashes on the roadway in the San Diego region. Of these, 71 were pedestrians.17 Bicyclists and pedestrians combined represent nearly one-third of all fatalities while they account for only three percent of trips in the region18 19. This disparity has added significance since safety is a primary concern for people when they choose a mode of travel, especially for children travelling to school, or seniors who are dependent upon public transportation.20 Additionally, the need for safe and accessible bike and pedestrian infrastructure is critical in low-income and minority communities that have low rates of automobile ownership.21

Air Quality While the region’s air quality has improved,22 the health impacts of transportation-related pollutants remain a concern and can have a direct impact on rates of chronic diseases such as asthma and other respiratory diseases, including lung disease, coronary heart disease, and cancer. Children are particularly susceptible to developing respiratory illnesses, especially when exposed to pollutants early in life.23 Internal combustion engines in vehicles emit a number of air-borne pollutants, which are regulated by state and federal air quality standards to protect public health and safety. The San Diego region has met the federal standards for carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and lead,24 and attained the federal 1997 Eight-Hour Ozone standard in 2013; additionally, the region has made progress in attaining the federal 2008 Eight-Hour Ozone Standard—in 2015, eight out of the nine monitoring sites in the County met the standard.25 The San Diego region is a non-attainment area for the state ozone and particulate matter standards.

At times, air emissions from traffic may become a concern for siting new recreational facilities, such as a trail alongside a freeway or a neighborhood park served by a busy arterial road. In general, the

6 7

health benefits of physical activity usually far outweigh the risks from ambient air pollution. Guidelines from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention state that, except for sensitive populations with chronic lung conditions, physical activity should be avoided entirely only under the worst air quality conditions, which rarely occur in the San Diego region. For recreational facilities, emissions from point sources such as roadways should be minimized to the extent possible, however short duration exposures typical of park or trail use do not warrant avoiding such physical activity opportunities except for sensitive populations.26

Cost Implications Poor health outcomes often can have a significant cost burden on society, in part due to premature deaths and absences from work and school. Obesity-related medical care costs are estimated to be 21 percent of total national healthcare spending annually.27 By 2030, healthcare costs associated with obesity are expected to rise by $48 billion to $66 billion.28 The California Department of Public Health estimates that obese people spent $1,429 more in medical care costs compared to people of normal weight. In addition, it is estimated that in 2014, the total annual cost to California from obesity-related conditions was $36.2 billion.29 In 2006, the estimated cost for the San Diego region was approximately $3 billion, or nearly $3,000 per household in annual costs.30 Identifying opportunities to invest in lower-cost infrastructure, such as bike and pedestrian facilities, could lead to more health-conscious decisions and healthier lifestyles and result in reduced healthcare costs.

How the Built Environment Affects Health

Land-use patterns in many communities make driving a necessity and discourage walking and biking. A decrease in walking and biking results in a decrease in daily physical activity, which is considered a critical factor in the rising obesity epidemic across the United States, especially among children. In light of growing evidence that links land use patterns and transportation infrastructure with public health outcomes,31 urban planners and public health practitioners have begun collaborating to develop strategies that improve community health and wellness through the design of the built environment. For example, people who live in neighborhoods with sidewalks on most streets are 47 percent more likely to be physically active for at least 30 minutes a day,32 which is the minimum amount recommended by the U.S. Surgeon General.33 Some of these strategies are described below.

Active Transportation and Public Transit Streets that are designed for the safety of multiple users—including pedestrians of all ages, bike riders, people with disabilities, buses, and cars—have been shown to reduce the risk of pedestrian and bike rider injuries.34 Community design and development patterns that encourage physical activity and educational institutions that support walk and bike to school programs help people meet the Surgeon General’s recommendation for daily physical activity.35 Physical activity includes moderate-intensity exercise such as walking and jogging and varies among individuals depending on age and fitness level.

Using public transit and active transportation options such as walking and biking reduces vehicle miles traveled, vehicle emissions, respiratory disease associated with sedentary lifestyles, and healthcare costs.36 Proximity to transit also is associated with improved access to healthy food as well as social, medical, employment, and recreational activities, particularly for physically and economically disadvantaged people.37 Additionally, the nation is experiencing a demographic shift that is resulting in a greater demand by consumers, young professionals in particular, to live in walkable, dense

7 8

neighborhoods with active transportation options and easy access to a range of retail and services, public transit, and jobs.38

Access to Parks and Recreation Residents with convenient access to parks are more likely to use them for recreation and physical activity.39 Quality recreational facilities and programs also can increase physical activity. The health benefits of physical activity include a reduced risk of premature mortality, cardiovascular disease, some cancers, and type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome.40 Regular participation in physical activity can help reduce depression and anxiety, improve mental health and mood, strengthen bones and muscles, and enhance ability to perform daily tasks throughout the life span. 41 Contact and exposure to open spaces also can reduce stress, improve mental health, and facilitate recovery from illness.42 Furthermore, studies show that increased access to open areas such as parks, recreation space, and wilderness areas is associated with a decreased prevalence of obesity. 43, 44

There are a number of potential barriers to accessing parks and recreation, especially in low-income and minority communities and including proximity and safety, that if addressed could increase the levels of physical activity and decrease chronic disease and other related negative health impacts within communities. Additionally, ensuring that parks are well-maintained over time is crucial to ongoing use and long-term health benefits.

Complete Neighborhoods The term “complete neighborhoods” refers to the ability of residents to easily access all of the goods and services needed in daily life by walking. A complete neighborhood encourages walking and biking because goods are nearby, and helps contribute to neighborhood safety by ensuring that many people are out and about throughout the day and into the evenings, helping to keep eyes on the street. Complete neighborhoods also reduce residents’ reliance on cars, resulting in fewer automobile trips required. This, in turn, leads to reduced air and noise pollution as well as reduced risk of collisions and injuries.

The availability of medical services throughout the community can reduce vehicle trips with benefits to air quality, community noise, and injuries. The availability of primary medical care has a role in preserving good health and preventing morbidity and hospitalizations from chronic and communicable diseases, including asthma and diabetes.

A combination of land-use and transportation considerations, such as mixed-use or transit-oriented developments that include schools, parks, retail, job access, affordable housing, medical facilities, and other appropriate elements, are components of a complete neighborhood. Complete neighborhoods could strengthen local economies, provide greater access to jobs, and reduce interregional commutes and air pollution, which are key predictors of health status.45

Access to Affordable Housing In a healthy community, residents have access to safe and affordable housing. The lack of adequate affordable housing may result in families living in substandard housing, overcrowded situations, overpaying (i.e., paying more than 30 to 50% of their income for housing), and/or living far from their work and commuting long distances, negatively affecting both physical and emotional health.46

8 9

Residents of substandard housing are at increased risk for fire, electrical injuries, lead poisoning, rodent infestation, mold, childhood asthma, and other illnesses and injuries. Overcrowded housing conditions can contribute to higher mortality rates, infectious disease, inhibited childhood development, and stress. Excessive rent or housing cost burdens contribute to emotional stress, hunger, and overcrowding.47 Conversely, lower housing costs result in more disposable income for essential non-housing needs, allowing a more balanced and healthier lifestyle.

Homelessness Homelessness can lead to exposure of communicable diseases, violence, and malnutrition, and is closely connected to declines in physical and mental health due to lack of access to food and protection from harmful weather, limited resources, and barriers to care. High-stress, unhealthy and dangerous environments and an inability to control food intake often results in visits to emergency rooms and hospitalization.48

In San Diego County, homelessness increased by 5 percent from 2016 to 2017, with an approximate 9,116 homeless people countywide in 2017.49 To address growing concerns of widespread homelessness, the San Diego Regional Task Force on the Homeless administered nearly $3.2 million in grants in the last fiscal year and more than $960,000 to support rapid rehousing programs. Additionally, the San Diego Housing Commission established the “Housing First” initiative over three fiscal years (FY 2018 to FY 2020) to direct $79.7 million in resources for six programs that will provide permanent housing opportunities for 3,000 homeless persons in San Diego.50

Environmental Quality Research suggests that low-income and minority communities are more likely to live near busy roadways and major highways.51 Studies also have found consistent associations between living in proximity to a busy roadway and respiratory disease symptoms, including asthma and poor lung function. Diesel particulate matter from truck and train engine exhaust has acute short-term impacts and disproportionate effects on the elderly, children, people with illnesses, and others who are sensitive to air pollutants. Health risks increase with closer proximity to high-volume roadways.52 In addition, truck routes on local streets contribute to traffic congestion, which may lead to unsafe conditions for pedestrians and bike riders. Conversely, in dense communities where mixed use provides access to goods and services, there is a need for delivery trucks which can contribute to traffic congestion and sometimes cause conflicts with pedestrians and bike riders. Trade-offs in the decision- making process for physical health benefits or smart growth developments can sometimes outweigh location near or next to busy roadways.

Traffic also is a significant source of environmental noise. Chronic noise exposure can result in sleep disturbance, cognitive impairment in children and adults, adult hypertension, and stress hormone activation.53 Except for low-emission and natural gas-powered vehicles, traffic directly contributes to air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These emissions and other air pollutants, including ozone and particulate matter, are risk factors for cardiovascular mortality and respiratory disease and illness.

Street trees provide multiple benefits and can mitigate some of the negative effects of roads and vehicle emissions. Trees capture air pollution, reduce carbon dioxide, and increase oxygen levels.54 Trees close to traffic have been found to absorb nine times more pollutants than distant trees. In addition to the numerous environmental benefits, trees in urban areas also provide social benefits.

9 10

Studies show that urban street trees can facilitate stress reduction and better mental health.55 Speeding vehicles can endanger pedestrians and bike riders, posing additional safety concerns in neighborhoods.56 Street trees have shown to have a calming effect on traffic, causing motorists to slow down.

Access to Healthy Food The health impacts of a poor diet are costly. In the United States, it is estimated that healthier diets might prevent $84.2 billion per year in medical costs.57 In San Diego County, 494,439 residents—and one in five children—currently are food insecure (i.e., uncertain of being able to secure sufficient food for self or family).58 A growing body of research points to the neighborhood food environment as a major contributor to poor dietary choices and ultimately, the poor health of a community. 59 Land-use practices and policies can help increase access to healthy food and improve public health.

There are many strategies for the development of healthy food environments: farmers’ markets and farm stands, grocery stores, healthy corner store conversions (modifying existing neighborhood retail establishments to carry a wider variety of healthy foods), community gardens and urban farms, farmland protection, farm-to-institution (i.e., food from local farms to institutions such as schools, government, corporations, hospitals, and colleges in the region), and many other strategies. In order to implement any of these strategies successfully, a community must have supportive business, economic, and land-use policies and regulations. Additionally, policies and regulations should allow for both individual and commercial food production in order to foster community resilience and greater food access for individuals of all backgrounds, cultures, and socioeconomic statuses.

Community gardens and urban agriculture can provide a source of fresh fruits and vegetables for users, increase physical activity, and provide opportunities for social interaction. Locally produced food helps attain other benefits, such as sustaining the local economy and reducing long-distance shipping, thereby decreasing vehicle emissions, which are associated with chronic diseases and global climate change.

The City of San Diego passed model community garden and urban agriculture zoning regulations in 2012. Community gardens are allowed by right in all residential and commercial zones. The urban agriculture zoning ordinance allows for small-scale animal husbandry (i.e., beekeeping or the keeping of chickens or miniature goats), small urban farms of four acres or less, and the sale of local agricultural goods. Regulation changes allow for on-site community garden sales, farmers’ markets on both public and private property, and the sale of locally unprocessed, non-valued products in commercial zones on both public and private property.

These practices allow for community residents of all income levels to produce foods in an affordable manner that protects and promotes public health. Additionally, they create economic opportunities for small and medium sized growers.

Farmers’ markets can provide another source of fresh, locally produced fruits and vegetables that can help residents meet the recommended daily servings of healthy food. Healthy food is generally low in fat and saturated fat, contains limited amounts of cholesterol and sodium, and provides natural vitamins. Farmers’ markets may be particularly important in areas lacking full-service grocery stores.

10 11

The presence of a grocery store or food market in a neighborhood correlates with higher fruit and vegetable consumption, reduces the prevalence of being overweight and of obesity, and reduces the incidence of hunger and malnutrition.60

Neighborhood studies demonstrate that where there are high numbers of fast food restaurants compared to grocery stores, there also are higher rates of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.61 Increasing the number of full-service grocery stores relative to fast food restaurants in neighborhoods can help to combat these health conditions. The concentration of grocery stores varies throughout the San Diego region. Programs that create opportunities to purchase healthy food options at corner stores can help alleviate the burden to communities with fewer full-scale grocery stores.

For example, Project New Village is a non-profit organization that works to improve fresh food access in southeastern San Diego as part of a broad-based movement to build healthy neighborhoods. Project New Village uses neighborhood-based agricultural cooperatives as strategies of resistance to food insecurity and aims to remove barriers that impede universal access to good food through community/civic engagement and building alternative food ecosystems. Project New Village also operates a farmers’ market and community garden to improve access to healthy, fresh foods for residents of southeastern San Diego.62

Transportation access to healthy food, including transit, bike, and pedestrian facilities, also is an important consideration, especially in low-income and minority communities.

Access to Regional Food Systems The development of regional food systems, or “food hubs,” supports locally grown and healthy food. Regional Food Hubs are defined as “integrated food distribution systems that address agricultural production and the aggregation, storage, processing, distribution, and marketing of locally or regionally produced food products.”63 Local food hubs have been shown to reduce the redundancy inherent in small-scale food systems by providing a platform for producers to collectively meet consumer demand within a region—primarily prior to the product entering the global market. Although studies have been conducted to examine the feasibility of regional food hubs64 and advocate for the establishment of more localized food hubs,65 San Diego County presently lacks its own Regional Food Hub. Instead, the Los Angeles terminal market acts as a proxy wholesale distribution center. A San Diego Regional Food Hub could reduce the redundant transportation miles that are accrued by producers and distributors alike.

San Diego County’s propensity toward organic fruit and vegetable production and small farms presents a unique opportunity in the advancement of the local economy, the environment, and public health. Though San Diego County produces more than 200 types of fruit and vegetable crops, each year valued at $630 million, it is estimated that only 10 percent of the fruits and vegetables grown in San Diego County are consumed locally as of 2010.66

Further economic gains could be made by exploring expanded land-use policies and regulations across the county that encourage local procurement, using and renovating existing infrastructure, and investing in new technologies to create new market opportunities. Simultaneously, these efforts help increase access to healthy, locally produced foods. Studies continually link farm-to-institution programs with increases in school meal participation and fruit and vegetable selection by students.

11 12

In addition to a Regional Food Hub, other food-related businesses such as food processing facilities, commercial kitchens, and shared programs such as “kitchen incubators” have been implemented in other regions to facilitate a more diverse local food system while creating more jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities. These types of businesses also are materializing in the San Diego region.67 Kitchen incubator programs can lower the cost of entry for entrepreneurs by providing shared kitchen facilities and equipment on an as needed basis to small catering companies, pushcart vendors, bakers, specialty-food makers, and other food-based businesses.68

Access to Healthcare Facilities In a healthy community, residents have adequate transportation access to healthcare facilities. People need to be able to get to many places, including to the doctor, regardless of income or background. The availability of medical services throughout the community, paired with a variety of transportation options to access those services, helps increase access to healthcare facilities. As the region’s population continues to age,69 the need for adequate transportation access to healthcare facilities will continue to grow. Many Metropolitan Planning Organizations, including SANDAG, work with Consolidated Transportation Service Agencies and other specialized transportation providers to coordinate transportation services for seniors and individuals with disabilities, and provide grants for specialized transportation programs to expand mobility options for seniors and the disabled. These programs provide critical services that enhance access to healthcare facilities for our most vulnerable populations.70 As part of its 2018 Coordinated Plan update, SANDAG is in the process of developing a long-term Specialized Transportation Strategic Plan to address the increasing specialized service needs of seniors and persons with disabilities. This plan was identified as a Near-Term Action for implementation in the 2015 Regional Plan.

The 2015 Regional Plan included a Social Equity Analysis that analyzed the percentage of the population within 15 minutes goods and services (by driving alone, carpooling, taking public transit, and walking) including hospitals, community clinics, and medical offices. The analysis showed that the transportation investments included in the 2015 Regional Plan provided better access to healthcare for seniors, low-income, and minority populations via all transportation modes than without the investments.71 A similar analysis, as well as continued implementation of specialized transportation services and programs, will be important in the development of the 2019 Regional Plan.

Public Safety Community design affects social interactions, which in turn may affect violence. Violence has a negative effect on the physical and mental health of victims and their families, friends, and neighbors. It also negatively impacts the social and economic well-being of the neighborhood, influencing business investment, job and housing security, educational attainment, resident participation in community development, and community integration.72 When neighborhoods are well designed, the resulting social cohesion contributes to lower rates of crime and violence and, therefore, better health outcomes.73

Design factors associated with levels of perceived and actual neighborhood safety include sidewalk cleanliness and width, street design for pedestrian safety and speed control, street lighting and street trees, number of liquor stores, degree of community isolation, and access to services and housing for low-income persons. Other factors include the presence of drugs or gangs, police presence, availability of weapons, employment, and access to community activities for families and youth.74

12 13

Many communities are adopting a multi-disciplinary approach, known as “crime prevention through environmental design,” to help make their neighborhoods safer through environmental design.75

A table discussing built environment strategies, policy considerations, and community health outcomes is included at the end of this white paper.

Existing National, State, Regional, and Local Efforts

A number of existing policies, plans, and programs at the national, state, regional, and local levels support planning and implementation for healthy communities in the San Diego region. Some of the major efforts are described below.

National Plans and Programs

Joint Call to Action to Promote Healthy Communities The Joint Call to Action brings together eight national organizations and calls on members to collaborate with one another to create healthier, more equitable communities. Signatories include the American Institute of Architects, the American Planning Association, the American Public Health Association, the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Society of Landscape Architects, the National Recreation and Park Association, the U.S. Green Building Council, and the Urban Land Institute. As signatories, the national organizations work to build relationships, establish health goals, implement strategies to improve health, and share expertise.76

American Planning Association, Plan4Health, and Planners4Health Programs Plan4Health is a partnership between the American Planning Association (APA) and the American Public Health Association that leverages planners’ roles as collaborators and conveners to improve health outcomes. Plan4Health includes 35 local coalitions of public health and planners supporting place-based work.77 Planners4Health is the final iteration of the Plan4Health program and is focused on integrating health into the planning process via local APA chapters. Planners4Health includes more than two dozen local APA chapters, including the local San Diego APA section, building capacity to address health at the chapter level.78

American Association of Retired Persons and World Health Organization Network of Age-Friendly Cities and Communities Nationally, trends show that our country’s population is aging. According to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), one-third of the population is currently 50 years or older, and by 2030, 20 percent of our nation’s population will be 65 years or older. Local trends line up with the national trends. Currently, about 12 percent of the San Diego region’s population is 65 or over. By 2050, it is expected that nearly 20 percent of the population will be ages 65 and over.79 The AARP Network of Age-Friendly Cities includes more than 200 communities in which elected leaders have made the commitment to actively work towards making their city or county a great place for people of all ages. The AARP Network of Age-Friendly Communities is an affiliate of the World Health Organization (WHO) Age-Friendly Cities and Communities Program which was launched internationally in 2006 to help cities prepare for growing aging populations. Local jurisdiction members include the City of Chula Vista and San Diego County.80 In light of the needs of the aging population, the AARP and the WHO provide toolkits, fact sheets, books, and other resources to help communities become more livable and more age-friendly for all.81

13 14

State Plans and Programs

General Plan Guidelines The California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research published its updated 2017 General Plan Guidelines that serves as a resource for local cities and counties. The updated guidelines contain significant changes, including a new section on healthy communities that provides strategies and approaches for incorporating health considerations into general plans. In addition, the 2017 General Plan Guidelines emphasize correlations between healthy communities and other required elements in the general plan.82

Health in All Policies Health in All Policies was established by the Public Health Institute to incorporate health considerations into decision-making across sectors and policy areas. The Public Health Institute works with local governments to support the incorporation of a Health in All Policies approach through one-time consultations, trainings, and in-depth partnerships. In 2010, the California Department of Public Health and the Public Health Institute established the Health in All Policies Task Force, which brings together 22 departments, agencies, and offices from across California State Government to identify priority programs, policies, and strategies to improve the health of Californians.83

Regional Plans and Programs

San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan The SANDAG Board of Directors adopted the 2015 Regional Plan on October 9, 2015. The 2015 Regional Plan combines the big-picture vision for how the San Diego region will grow by 2050 with an implementation program to help make that vision a reality.

In an effort to bring greater focus to the new and emerging topic areas of the 2015 Regional Plan, SANDAG staff prepared a series of white papers to help inform the development of the plan. The intent of the white papers was to support and provide background information for the 2015 Regional Plan and to serve as its appendices. Four white papers, focusing on issues related to public health and the built environment, economy, climate change, and technology, were prepared. These topics were consistent with the vision and goals approved by the SANDAG Board of Directors, which centered around Vibrant Economy, Healthy Environment and Communities, and Innovative Mobility and Planning. All of the white papers, including the Public Health White Paper, can be found in Appendix Q of the 2015 Regional Plan. The Public Health White Paper for the 2015 Regional Plan was the first SANDAG-prepared white paper focused on public health, and it included input from the Public Health Stakeholders Working Group, which was established during the development of the 2015 Regional Plan to provide a broad-based foundation for the inclusion of health issues in the regional planning context. This current white paper, prepared in 2018, builds on that first white paper and incorporates information that is new since 2014 in order to help inform development of the 2019 Regional Plan.

TransNet Sales Tax Ordinance TransNet is the half-cent sales tax for local transportation projects that was first approved by voters in 1988, then extended in 2004 for another 40 years beginning in 2008. Administered by SANDAG, the program has been instrumental in expanding the region’s transportation system, reducing traffic congestion, and bringing critical transportation programs to life. During the 60-year life of the

14 15

program, billions of dollars will be generated and allocated toward highway, transit, and local road projects in the region.

The TransNet extension ordinance approved in 2004 dedicated 2 percent of revenues to the Smart Growth Incentive Program (SGIP) and 2 percent of revenues to the Bicycle, Pedestrian, Neighborhood Safety, and Traffic Calming Program (now the Active Transportation Grant Program, or ATGP). These grant programs provide funding for the planning and construction of street improvements along local corridors and intersections, such as sidewalks, crosswalks, streetscape enhancements, and other pedestrian upgrades, traffic calming measures, and safety measures. The SGIP supports compact, mixed-use development and more housing and transportation choices in the Smart Growth Opportunity Areas located on the SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Map through planning and infrastructure grants.

Since these two programs were launched in 2009, the Board of Directors has awarded more than $50 million in TransNet funds, leveraging more than $34 million in local matching funds, for a total investment of more than $80 million throughout the San Diego region. Through the three funding cycles issued to date, more than 100 SGIP and ATGP projects have been awarded funding, including 43 SGIP grants (23 capital grants and 20 planning grants) and 64 ATGP grants (34 capital grants and 30 planning, bike parking, and educational grants). More than 70 percent of the projects have been completed.

A fourth cycle of funding will be awarded in mid-2018, with more than $30 million of funding for allocation. The fourth cycle includes two new eligibility requirements for local jurisdictions. In order to receive funding for smart growth and active transportation projects, jurisdictions need to have adopted Climate Action Plans and Complete Streets Policies. The fourth cycle provides funding to assist jurisdictions to finalize these documents if they have not already adopted them. These new eligibility requirements help the region move toward a more comprehensive network of complete streets, and supports the preparation of local policy documents that further statewide climate planning goals.

Board Policy No. 31: TransNet Ordinance and Expenditure Plan Rules, Rule 21, provides guidance on section 4(E)(3) of the Ordinance, which requires routine accommodation of bicyclists and pedestrians in all TransNet-funded projects. The guidelines address all aspects of the program, including highways, public transit, and local roads.

Regional Complete Streets Policy The SANDAG Board of Directors adopted a Regional Complete Streets Policy in 2014. Complete streets planning efforts provide a process to ensure that the transportation system is safe, useful, and attractive for all users of the transportation network. The policy was incorporated into the 2015 Regional Plan. Since the adoption of the policy and its incorporation into the 2015 Regional Plan, SANDAG created a complete streets web page, drafted a certification form template to use when assessing regional transportation projects for compliance with the Regional Complete Streets Policy, developed an initial database/mapping tool for use in completing the certification forms, and prepared a complete streets checklist as an optional resource for use by local jurisdictions.

Active Transportation Implementation Strategy Framework With the adoption of the 2050 RTP/SCS in 2011, the SANDAG Board of Directors made an unprecedented commitment to Active Transportation. The plan included Safe Routes to School and

15 16

Safe Routes to Transit strategies, the Regional Bike Plan, and other related active transportation efforts at SANDAG. Work completed to date, described below, will both inform and address active transportation in the 2019 Regional Plan.

Safe Routes to School Programs At the local level, a number of jurisdictions have initiated comprehensive Safe Routes to School programs in order to encourage more walking and biking to school. For example, the City of Chula Vista collaborated with education, public health, and community partners on the Healthy Eating Active Communities campaign with the goal of improving access to healthy food and physical activity in schools and neighborhoods.84 SANDAG approved a Regional Safe Routes to School Strategic Plan to guide future agency involvement in promoting walking and biking to school as safe and attractive travel choices.

Safe Routes to Transit The Safe Routes to Transit Program identifies projects and programs that provide bike and pedestrian access around existing and planned transit stops and stations. SANDAG will work closely with local jurisdictions to identify opportunities to complement projects and programs identified in their bike and pedestrian plans.

San Diego Regional Bike Plan The Regional Bike Plan, adopted in May 2010, establishes a network of regional bikeway corridors for intercommunity bike travel and proposes a comprehensive set of programs to support biking in order to make riding a bike a practical transportation choice in the San Diego region. In 2013, the Board of Directors adopted the Regional Bike Early Action Program, which authorized borrowing up to $200 million against future TransNet Active Transportation Program funds to accelerate development of the highest priority project in the Regional Bike Plan. iCommute Transportation Demand Management Program The goal of the iCommute program is to manage and reduce traffic congestion during peak-times, as well as to reduce GHG emissions and other environmental pollutants that result from commuters driving to work each day alone. iCommute plays a vital role in promoting active transportation through employer outreach; administering the regional bike parking program and regional bike map; bike education programs for schools, community organizations, and employers; and marketing and outreach efforts such as Bike to Work Day. In addition, iCommute administers the GO by BIKE mini-grant program, wherein grants of up to $3,000 are available for programs or projects that promote biking through education and outreach. A reference guide for local jurisdictions, entitled “Integrating Transportation Demand Management into the Planning and Development Process,” was completed in May 2012.

Regional Mobility Hub Implementation Strategy The 2015 Regional Plan included a Near-Term Action to develop a Regional Mobility Hub Implementation Strategy. Mobility hubs are places of connectivity where different modes of travel— walking, biking, transit, and shared mobility—converge, and where there is a concentration of employment, housing, shopping, and/or recreation. Mobility hubs provide an integrated suite of mobility services, amenities, and technologies to bridge the distance between high-frequency transit and an individual’s origin or destination. Mobility hubs can promote active forms of travel to and from high-frequency transit services by offering safe and convenient walkways, crossings, and

16 17

bikeways; bike parking options; and shared mobility modes like bikeshare and rideables (e.g., electric scooters and motorized boards).

SANDAG recently completed key deliverables of the Regional Mobility Hub Implementation Strategy, which can be found at SDForward.com/RegionalMobilityHub. These deliverables include a Mobility Hub Features Catalog, technical memos that provide guidance on mobility hub implementation and equity considerations, profile sheets for eight mobility hub prototype locations in the region, and conceptual designs for three of the prototype locations. The catalog illustrates the types of services, amenities, and technologies that can work together to make it easier for people to connect to transit while also providing enhanced mobility options. The catalog serves as a resource for jurisdictions, transit operators, and private mobility service providers as they collaborate to design and implement mobility hubs around the region. The prototypes demonstrate how mobility hub services and amenities can be tailored to meet specific community needs. SANDAG is working with the City of Oceanside to develop a three-dimensional mobility hub visual simulation for the Oceanside Transit Center prototype location. Analysis also will be performed to identify a regionwide mobility hub network.

Healthy Works Project In March 2010, the County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency (HHSA) received $16.1 million from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act for the Healthy Works I project/Communities Putting Prevention to Work. The overarching goal of the program was to expand the use of evidence-based, community-wide strategies that focused on environmental systems and policy changes, resulting in increased levels of physical activity, improved nutrition, and decreased prevalence of being overweight and of obesity. To achieve this goal, HHSA partnered with SANDAG on a variety of projects aimed at increasing levels of physical activity and access to healthy food and nutrition. Phase I of the Healthy Works program, which was supported by $3 million in grant funds, was completed in March 2012.

In September 2011, HHSA received another CDC grant, the Community Transformation Grant, and chose to partner with SANDAG again to build on the successes of the Healthy Works Phase I projects. SANDAG and HHSA initiated the Healthy Works Phase II projects in July 2012 to implement a Safe Routes to School Strategic Plan and a Regional Complete Streets Policy, refine the Public Health and Wellness Policy Framework and Performance Measures for consideration in the current regional plan update, establish a monitoring and evaluation program to assist in quantifying outcomes of active transportation projects and programs, and explore and develop new tools and resources to assist agencies throughout the region in conducting health analyses on transportation and land use-related projects.

Public Health Elements for General Plans A number of jurisdictions in the San Diego region have adopted public health elements as part of their general plan updates. These include the Cities of Chula Vista, Escondido, La Mesa, National City, San Marcos, and Vista. Encinitas and Lemon Grove currently are in the process of developing public health elements for their general plans.

San Diego County Childhood Obesity Initiative In 2006, the County Board of Supervisors launched the Call to Action: Childhood Obesity Action Plan for San Diego County. Representing a collaborative effort of numerous partners and stakeholders,

17 18

the Action Plan paved the way for the funding and formation of the San Diego County Childhood Obesity Initiative (COI), which serves to engage partners and ensure the effective implementation of the strategies outlined in the Call to Action.

The initiative, funded by the County of San Diego and coordinated by Community Health Improvement Partners, is a public/private partnership whose mission is to reduce and prevent childhood obesity in San Diego County by creating healthy environments for all children and families through advocacy, education, policy development and environmental change. COI consists of seven domains, including government, healthcare, schools and after-school, early childhood, community, media, and business. The government domain component addresses health in the built environment.85

Live Well San Diego Live Well San Diego (LWSD) is the County of San Diego’s roadmap for the future to achieve the vision of a safe, healthy, and thriving county. To achieve this vision, the County created a framework embracing four main themes: building a better service delivery system, supporting healthy choices, pursuing policy and environmental changes, and changing the culture from within the organization to support positive health outcomes. LWSD is a shared agenda for collaboration and action involving partner organizations in all sectors including government agencies, businesses, schools, healthcare providers, and faith-based and community organizations. The County Board of Supervisors recognizes partners who demonstrate a strong commitment to LWSD principles and who put that commitment into action. SANDAG is a recognized partner of the Live Well San Diego vision.

Border Health Program The County Office of Border Health was established in February 1993 with the goal of facilitating communication and collaboration among local, state, and federal organizations working in the United States-Mexico border region. Local and cross-border health activities include coordinating binational meetings among public health officials and practitioners, organizing binational symposiums on a variety of shared health topics, facilitating communication around communicable disease control and prevention, and preparing for public health emergencies and threats. The Border Health Program’s mission is to promote a healthy California-Baja California border region by working together with partners to address the needs of the shared community through streamlined communication, education, resource sharing, and partnerships to prevent disease, empower communities, and assist in responding to health threats and disasters.86

Public Health Data and Tools

The California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool Senate Bill 535 (De Leon, 2012) directs the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA) to identify disadvantaged communities based on geographic, socioeconomic, public health, and environmental hazard criteria. In order to accomplish this, CalEPA utilizes the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen) to map out environmental, health, and socioeconomic data at a census-tract level across the state. The most recent version, CalEnviroScreen 3.0, includes updates related to information on pollution along the California-Mexico border and the addition of new indicators reflecting health and socioeconomic vulnerability to pollution.87 Several state agencies use CalEnviroScreen in the implementation of various grant programs. Many of these programs are funded from California’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

18 19

Examples of some statewide grant programs that require the use of CalEnviroScreen to identify disadvantaged communities include the Sustainable Communities Planning Grants and Incentives Program; Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities Program; and Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program.

Healthy Communities Data and Indicators Project The Healthy Communities Data and Indicators project is a collaboration between the California Department of Public Health and the University of California San Francisco, with funding from the Strategic Growth Council, that provides a standardized set of statistical measures and tools that a diverse array of sectors can use for planning healthy communities and evaluating the impacts of plans, projects, and policies on community health. The indicators for this project were based on the Healthy Community Framework developed by the Health in All Policies Task Force.88

Live Well San Diego Data Access Portal and Open Performance Dashboard The Live Well San Diego data access portal was developed by the San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency to provide information on the most recent demographic, economic, behavioral, and health data available by communities in the San Diego County. The open performance dashboard is an interactive data tracking and visualization tool that reports progress over time on Live Well San Diego’s top ten indicators and related measures.89

Health-Related Performance Measures in San Diego Forward: The 2015 Regional Plan The 2015 Regional Plan used performance measures to help evaluate multimodal transportation network scenarios against one another, which were used to show the performance of the network included in the final version of the Regional Plan. For the 2015 Regional Plan, two new performance measures that examined transportation-related physical activity were added to the performance measures included in prior plans. Additional metrics highlight housing and employment near transit and bicycle facilities, access to jobs and higher education, medical care, parks and other destinations, and air quality and climate change measures. The performance measures currently are being updated for the 2019 Regional Plan.

Interrelationships to Other Policy Areas

Public health is related to several other policy areas of the Regional Plan. The following sections describe how public health is interrelated to climate change, social equity/environmental justice, economic, and emerging technology considerations.

Public Health and Climate Change It is well recognized that global climate change and changing weather patterns have a range of direct and indirect impacts on public health. Health effects from climate drivers such as rising sea-level, changes in precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures include increased injuries and premature deaths related to extreme weather events, changes in the prevalence and geographical distribution of foodborne and waterborne illnesses, and increased respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.90 Severe weather fluctuations and more intense temperatures worsen drought, wildfire, and air pollution risks. Extreme weather and rising sea levels can result in higher counts of pollen and other aeroallergens that affect an estimated 300 million people with allergies around the world.91

19 20

San Diego County is expected to see rising temperatures and more frequent heat waves, as well as less frequent and more intense rainfall. It is anticipated that temperatures in 2050 will be 4.8 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than in 1985. Extended heatwaves and less nighttime cooling increase health risks associated with heat-related illness and cardiovascular disease and have greater impacts on vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, low-income residents, and the chronically ill.92

Public Health and Social Equity/Environmental Justice Health is determined in part by access to social and economic opportunities. Social and economic opportunities impact the resources that are available in communities, the quality of schooling, safety of workplaces, and cleanliness of air, water, and food. Social determinants of health are the conditions in which people are born, live, learn, work, play, and age that affect a wide range of health, functioning, and quality of life outcomes. Resources that enhance quality of life can have a significant influence on population health outcomes. Examples of these resources include safe and affordable housing, access to education, access to healthy foods, and access to emergency and health services.93

In San Diego County, substantial differences in health indicators and health-related behaviors exist in different socioeconomic groups. Low-income residents have a life expectancy below the county average, at 78 and 80 years, while residents of all other income groups have a life expectancy greater than the county average of 81 years. In comparison to the overall county, low-income communities are disproportionately affected by injury, chronic disease, communicable disease, maternal and child health indicators, and behavioral health outcomes.94 The State of Childhood Obesity in San Diego County Report indicated wide disparities in childhood obesity rates by both race/ethnicity and economic status. In the 2014 to 2015 academic year, the childhood obesity rate for Hispanic students (23.1%) was more than double the rate for non-Hispanic students (10.8%) and almost 2.5 times higher than childhood obesity rates among white students (8.9%). In the same year, the prevalence of obesity for economically disadvantaged students (22.9%) was more than twice the rate than for students who were not economically disadvantaged (10.0%). These findings are important because Hispanic students represent approximately half of all public-school students in San Diego County with respect to race/ethnicity; similarly, low-income students account for half of all public-school students in San Diego County with respect to socioeconomic status.

Public Health and Economic Prosperity The Economic Prosperity White Paper discusses economic conditions and trends in the San Diego region. In addition to the information included in the white paper, it is worth noting that the socioeconomic status of individuals and neighborhoods are intertwined with individual and community health because the local economy affects access to jobs, commerce, schools, healthcare facilities, and other resources that enable families to enjoy economic success and place-based health benefits. Therefore, health is influenced not only by the economic well-being of individuals and households but also by the economic well-being of communities.95

The population of San Diego is younger, better-educated, and earns more than the national average.96 In addition, the region offers a diverse employment base, with the tourism, military, and innovation sectors making up one-third of the economy. Although San Diego offers an attractive economy, associated high costs of living, especially housing costs compared to wages earned, impact residents’ quality of life. In the past five years, housing costs have continued to rise sharply while median household income has remained relatively flat, resulting in greater disparities between the

20 21

cost of living and income.97 As such, San Diego County residents are spending more of their income on housing, approximately 28 percent, and have lower rates of homeownership as compared to other major metropolitan areas.98 Housing affordability is a critical piece of the puzzle when it comes to public health, as well as in relation to the broader economic health of the region.

Public Health and Emerging Technologies The Emerging Technologies White Paper provides a robust overview of technological and societal trends that have the potential to radically change how the region’s transportation system is used in the future, and outlines potential policy considerations that could enable the region to harness the benefits and reduce the negative aspects of these trends. It presents research that demonstrates how technological advancements have the potential to improve safety, mobility, and efficiency, but recognizes that without proactive planning and policy interventions, the technologies could move the region away from its objectives by increasing sprawl, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and GHG emissions, and by limiting access for disadvantaged communities. The paper also discusses some of the public safety benefits of connected and autonomous vehicle technology for people that walk and ride bikes, as well as the potential benefits of improved air quality with the expansion of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). Shared mobility options, like bikeshare and rideables, also present opportunities to increase physical activity levels and improve public health.

Additional research beyond the Emerging Technologies White Paper shows that the impact of single-occupancy vehicles on our health is costly. Non-ZEVs produce carbon emissions that pollute our air, contribute to rising GHG emissions, and impact the lives of more than 3,600 people per year in California alone.99 More than 90 percent of the negative health impacts from cars result from the effects of physical inactivity, sitting, and chronic disease.100 Urban-design and land-use policies that create disconnected street networks and land uses that reinforce automobile dependency have been shown to cause numerous physical, mental, and social health problems.

Connected and autonomous vehicles, or driverless cars, are an emerging technology that have the potential to remove human error, reduce traffic accidents, and significantly improve safety for all road users. The transition to autonomous vehicles is an opportunity to create more walkable, bikeable, sustainable, and safer cities that provide benefits for both residents and businesses with the right policies in place to guide their deployment. The main health impacts associated with driverless cars are likely to be based on how cities and regions change to accommodate them. In order to capitalize fully on this unique opportunity to create healthier, more sustainable cities, a diverse spectrum of professionals, including public health specialists, should be involved in the planning process.101

Policy Considerations

Now more than ever, urban planners and public health professionals understand the extent to which our transportation system, land-use patterns, and community design play a role in determining health outcomes in our communities. How SANDAG invests in transportation infrastructure that maximizes public health benefits, social interaction, and community cohesion is an important policy consideration. The integration of public health policy issues and performance measures into the 2019 Regional Plan will support achievement of the goal of “Healthy Communities and Environment” and track progress over time. Table 1 includes policy considerations for healthy communities.

21 22

Table 1: Policy Considerations for Healthy Communities

Built Environment Community Health Policy Considerations Strategies Outcomes Access to active • Invest in transportation • Increased physical activity transportation and public infrastructure that maximizes • Lower risk of traffic- transit public health benefits, social related injury, interaction, and community • Reduced air and noise cohesion pollution • Complete streets, pedestrian- • Lower GHG emissions and bicycle-friendly • Improved neighborhood neighborhoods, regional and safety local bicycle routes, safe routes • Greater social cohesion to school and other destinations, traffic calming on neighborhood streets, and safe and convenient public transit within walking distance of homes/work Access to parks and • Support parks, recreation, and • Increased physical activity recreation trails within walking distance • Improved mental health of homes/work • Improved neighborhood • Joint-use facilities with school safety districts and other public • Greater social cohesion agencies Complete Neighborhoods • Support development of • Increased physical activity features that create Complete • Lower risk of injury Neighborhoods, which include • Reduced air and noise healthy, walkable, bikeable, pollution and vibrant communities with • Lower GHG emissions a variety of housing choices • Improved neighborhood and access to goods, services, safety medical facilities, recreation, and jobs • Greater social cohesion • Neighborhood-serving retail • Greater access to goods and public amenities within and services walking distance of homes • Reductions in vehicle miles • Retrofit of underutilized retail travelled centers or corridors into mixed-use development

22 23

Built Environment Community Health Policy Considerations Strategies Outcomes Access to affordable • Promote the availability of a • Lower housing costs result housing and support for diverse range of housing types in more disposable income the homeless close to major job centers to for essential non-housing reduce the length of commute needs, allowing a more trips and combined cost of balanced and healthier housing and transportation, lifestyle especially for lower- and • Lower homelessness rates moderate-income households reduce communicable • Continue to support the diseases, violence, and County of San Diego’s efforts malnutrition, as well as to reduce homelessness declines in physical and mental health Environmental quality • Encourage the location of • Reduced risk of major pollution sources away respiratory diseases from sensitive uses, such as • Reduced exposure to toxic parks, homes, and childcare substances centers • Improved mental health • Remediation of contaminated sites • Habitat and open-space preservation, including canyons in urban areas • Urban forests/greening Access to healthy food • Improve access to healthy and • Improved nutrition affordable food and nutrition • Increased physical activity while also considering • Reduced incidence of transportation access hunger • Farmers’ markets, community gardens, and healthier food options in corner stores Access to regional food • Explore the development of a • Increased food security systems Regional Food Hub within • Lower GHG emissions San Diego County Designing for public safety • Encourage active uses in • Improved neighborhood streets and public space to safety promote public safety • Greater social cohesion • Encourage use of • Improved mental health crime-prevention through • Lower risk of injury environmental design principles, including adequate street lighting

23 24

Built Environment Community Health Policy Considerations Strategies Outcomes Climate change • Support efforts to protect • Reduced health and social residents, especially vulnerable disparities populations such as the • Lower GHG emissions elderly, children, low-income residents, and the chronically ill, from health risks such as heat-related illnesses, cardiovascular disease, and premature deaths related to extreme weather events caused by climate change Equity/ • Encourage healthy • Reduced health and social environmental justice environment features that disparities provide low-income and • Increased access to minority communities healthy food retail equitable access to green environments spaces, healthy food, complete • Healthy and complete neighborhoods, transit, communities housing, and active transportation options Economic impact/ • Encourage greater housing • Economic well-being of development affordability individuals, households, • Consider funding strategies and communities that ensure funds for the • Increased access to development of “complete healthy food retail communities” environments • Identify the economic impacts • Healthy and complete of health food retail and communities agricultural tourism Emerging technologies • Involve a diverse spectrum of • Increased levels of physical professionals, including public activity health specialists, in the • Reduced traffic accidents transportation planning • Improved safety for all process road users

24 25

1 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Center to Prevent Childhood Obesity; Position Statement on the Intersection of Transportation and Health; http://www.reversechildhoodobesity.org/webfm_send/64. Accessed December 11, 2009. 2 Ewing, Reid, Tom Schmid, Richard Killingsworth, Amy Zlot, Stephen Raudenbush, Relationship Between Urban Sprawl and Physical Activity, Obesity, and Morbidity, American Journal of Health Promotion, 2003, 18(1):47-57. 3 County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, The Economic Burden of Chronic Disease in San Diego County, October 2010. 4 US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2016) https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/index.htm. 5 Frumkin, H., Frank, L., & Jackson, R. (2004). Urban Sprawl and Public Health, Designing Planning and Building for Healthy Communities. 6 See http://factfinder.census.gov/jsp/saff/SAFFInfo.jsp?_pageId=tp13_housing_physical. Since 1960, more than 50 percent of all new housing is built in the suburbs. 7 US Census Bureau, Demographic Trends in the 20th Century, Census 2000 Special Reports, 2002. https://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 8 American Community Survey (2008-2012). https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/acs-25.pdf 9 Active Living Research, Active Transportation: Making the Link from Transportation to Physical Activity and Obesity, Active Living Research Bulletin, Summer 2009. 10 Safe Routes to School National Partnership, Quick Facts, http://www.saferoutespartnership.org/mediacenter/quickfacts. Accessed June 22, 2010. 11 US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2016) https://www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/index.htm. 12 State of Obesity – 2016 data. https://stateofobesity.org/states/ca/. 13 Open Data Network, 2016 data for the County of San Diego. https://www.opendatanetwork.com/entity/0500000US06073-0500000US06111/San_Diego_County_CA- Ventura_County_CA/health.health_behaviors.adult_obesity_value?year=2015 14 Call to Action, San Diego County Childhood Obesity Action Plan, 2015, http://ourcommunityourkids.org/media/137500/coi_action_plan_online%20(2).pdf. Accessed February 6, 2018. 15 State of Childhood Obesity in San Diego County, 2016, San Diego County Childhood Obesity Initiative, http://ourcommunityourkids.org/media/157632/stateofchildhoodobesity-sdcountyfinal.pdf. Accessed February 6, 2018. 16 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, General Statistics, http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general- statistics/fatalityfacts/state-by-state-overview. Accessed February 7, 2018. 17 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Traffic Safety Facts, San Diego County, CA 2012-2016, http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd- 30/ncsa/STSI/6_CA/2008/Counties/California_San%20Diego%20County_2008.HTM. Accessed February 7, 2018. 18 Ibid. 19 U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey one-year estimates, San Diego County, Means of Transportation to Work.

25 26

20 Kerr, Jacqueline, Dori Rosenberg, James F. Sallis, Brian E. Saelens, Lawrence D. Frank, and Terry L. Conway, “Active Commuting to School: Associations with Environment and Parental Concerns,” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, American College of Sports Medicine, 2006. 21 Disadvantaged Communities: As it pertains to San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, the San Diego Association of Governments defines Disadvantaged Communities through a social equity analysis of the region, identifying all households that have any of the following characteristics: minority; 200 percent of the federal poverty rate; and/or are 75 years or older. Due to enhanced modeling capabilities that enable analysis at the household scale, there are no thresholds necessary to identify these communities. 22 Air Pollution Control District, County of San Diego, Five-Year Air Quality Summary Annual Report 2012-2016. 23 Ritz B and Wilhelm M. 2008 Fall. Southern California Environmental Report Card: Air Pollution Impacts on Infants and Children. Los Angeles: UCLA Institute of the Environment. http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media/files/air-pollution-impacts.pdf. 24 Air Pollution Control District: Attainment Status. https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/apcd/en/airquality-planning/attainment-status.html 25 California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board, ARB Review of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan for San Diego County, 2017, https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/planarea/sansip/2016ozone.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 26 U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Air Quality and Outdoor Activity Guidance for Schools. http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/airpollution/airquality/pdfs/Air_Quality_and_Outdoor_Activity_Guidance.pdf. Accessed October 21, 2013. 27 National League of Cities, Economic Costs of Obesity, http://www.healthycommunitieshealthyfuture.org/learn-the-facts/economic-costs-of-obesity/. Accessed February 14, 2018. 28 Brill, Alex. The Long-Term Returns of Obesity Prevention Policies, Campaign to End Obesity, 2013, http://campaigntoendobesity.org/documents/FinalLong-TermReturnsofObesityPreventionPolicies.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 29 California Department of Public Health, Obesity in California: The Weight of the State, 2000-2014, 2016, https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CCDPHP/DCDIC/NEOPB/CDPH%20Document%20Library/RES_ObesityRepor t20002014.pdf. Accessed February 7, 2018. 30 California Center for Public Health Advocacy, The Economic Costs of Overweight, Obesity and Physical Inactivity Among California Adults – 2006, http://www.publichealthadvocacy.org/costofobesity.html. Accessed December 28, 2009. This cost includes the cost of healthcare and the cost of lost productivity. 31 Heath, Gregory W., Ross C. Brownson, Judy Kruger, Rebecca Miles, Kenneth E. Powell, Leigh T. Ramsey, and the Task Force on Community Preventive Services, “The Effectiveness of Urban Design and Land Use and Transport Policies and Practices to Increase Physical Activity: A Systematic Review,” Journal of Physical Activity and Health 2006, 3, Supplement 1, S55-S76, Human Kinetics, Inc. 2006. 32 American Cancer Society, State and Local Policies to Promote Active Transportation and Recreation in Communities, 2015, https://www.acscan.org/sites/default/files/Active%20Transport-Fact%20Sheet- Rev%20Final%201-22-16.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 33 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, https://health.gov/paguidelines/pdf/paguide.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 34 U.S. Department of Transportation, Safer People, Safer Streets: Summary of U.S. Department of Transportation Action Plan to Increase Walking and Biking and Reduce Pedestrian and Bicyclist Fatalities,

26 27

2014, https://cms.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/safer_people_safer_streets_summary_doc_acc_v1-11-9.pdf. Accessed February 12, 2018. 35 National Prevention Council, National Prevention Strategy Active Living, 2014, https://www.surgeongeneral.gov/priorities/prevention/strategy/active-living.pdf. Accessed February 12, 2018. 36 Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Evaluating Public Transportation Health Benefits, 2010, http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/APTA_Health_Benefits_Litman.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018. 37 Ibid. 38 Urban Land Institute, America in 2015: A ULI Survey of Views on Housing, Transportation, and Community, 2015, http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/May/02/tp-population-study-hints-at-emerging-trends/. Accessed February 14, 2018. 39 Sherer, Paul M. The Benefits of Parks: Why America Needs More City Parks and Open Space. The Trust for Public Land, 2006. 40 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Physical Activity and Health, updated February 13, 2018, https://www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/basics/pa-health/index.htm. Accessed February 14, 2018. 41 Ibid. 42 Sherer, Paul M. The Benefits of Parks: Why America Needs More City Parks and Open Space. The Trust for Public Land, 2006. 43 Office of Health Assessment and Epidemiology, County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health, 2007. Preventing childhood obesity: The need to create healthy places: A cities and communities health report. http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/wwwfiles/ph/hae/epi/chr2-childhood_obesity.pdf. Accessed October 21, 2013. 44 Sherer, Paul M. The Benefits of Parks: Why America Needs More City Parks and Open Space. The Trust for Public Land, 2006. 45 Example of Complete Neighborhoods found in Portland and San Antonio. Website link to San Antonio Complete Neighborhoods initiative: https://sacompplan.com/complete-neighborhoods/. 46 Maqbool, Nabihah, Janet Viveiros, and Mindy Ault, 2015, The Impacts of Affordable Housing on Health: A Research Summary, Center for Housing Policy. 47 Am J Public Health. 2002 May; 92(5): 758–768. PMCID: PMC1447157 Housing and Health: Time Again for Public Health Action James Krieger, MD, MPH and Donna L. Higgins, PhD. 48 National Healthcare for the Homeless Council, Homelessness and Health: What’s the Connection?, 2011, http://www.nhchc.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Hln_health_factsheet_Jan10.pdf. Accessed January 8, 2018. 49 San Diego County Regional Task Force on the Homeless, 2017 WeAllCount Results, http://www.rtfhsd.org/wp- content/uploads/2017/07/2017-PITC-Results-Powerpoint.pdf. Accessed January 25, 2018. 50 San Diego Housing Commission, Homelessness Programs and Solutions, 2017, http://www.sdhc.org/uploadedFiles/Media_Center/Fact_Sheets/Homelessness-Programs-and-Solutions_FS.pdf. Accessed January 8, 2018. 51 Boehmer, Tegan K., Stephanie L. Foster, Jeffery R. Henry, Efomo L. Woghiren-Akinnifesi, and Fuyuen Y. Yip, 2010, Residential Proximity to Major Highways – United States, Center for Disease Control and Prevention. 52 Health Effects Institute, Traffic-Related Air Pollution: A Critical Review of the Literature on Emissions, Exposure, and Health Effects, 2010, https://www.healtheffects.org/system/files/SR17Traffic%20Review.pdf. Accessed February 14, 2018.

27 28

53 Oxford Journals Medicine British Medical Bulletin Volume 68, Issue 1 Pp. 243-257. Noise pollution: non- auditory effects on health, Stephen A. Stansfeld and Mark P. Matheson. 54 Jacobs, Jane. The Death and Life of Great American Cities. New York: Random House and Vintage Books, 1961. 55 Venn, A., Lewis, S.A., Cooper, M., Hubbard, R., and Britton, J. “Living near a Main Road and the Risk of Wheezing Illness in Children.” American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 164 (2001): 2177-2180. 56 Santa Clara Valley Health and Hospital System. Community Health Report 2002. Public Health Department, Released August 2003. 57 Dall, Timothy M., Victor L. Fulgoni III, Yiduo Zhang, Kristin J. Reimers, Patricia T. Packard, and James D. Atwood. (2009). Potential Health Benefits and Medical Cost Savings from Calorie, Sodium, and Saturated Fat Reductions in the American Diet. American Journal of Health Promotion, 23(6): 412-422. 58 San Diego Food Bank, Hunger Facts & Research. https://sandiegofoodbank.org/about/hunger-facts-research/. 59 Babey, et al. April 2008. Designed for Disease: The link between local food environments and obesity and diabetes. UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/14903. 60 Inagami S, Cohen DA, Finch BK, Asch SM. You are where you shop: grocery store locations, weight and neighborhoods. Am J Prev Med, 2006. A grocery store is defined as a retail outlet where a variety of fresh fruits, vegetables and meats could be purchased. A food market is a store that carries some fruits and vegetables. 61 Inagami S, Cohen DA, Finch BK, Asch SM. You are where you shop: grocery store locations, weight and neighborhoods. Am J Prev Med, 2006. 62 Project New Village, http://www.projectnewvillage.org/about/. Accessed February 7, 2018. 63 Melone, et al. (2010). A Network of Regional Food Hubs. Los Angeles, CA. 64 California Network of Regional Food Hubs, http://www.ngfn.org/resources/ngfn- database/knowledge/CA%20Net%20of%20Reg%20Food%20Hubs%20VISION%20PAPER%20.pdf, 2010. 65 New Roots Food Hub Feasibility Analysis, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54b30bbae4b0fc4c2291385e/t/598527ece58c62df09391345/15018987401 18/Food+Hub+Feasibility_Final+Report_5-7-15.pdf, 2015. 66 San Diego Food Systems Alliance Local Food Research Subcommittee. December 2010. Assessing the San Diego county food system: Indicators for a more food secure future. http://aginnovations.org/alliances/sandiego/. 67 Culinary Incubator: Community for Kitchen Rentals, http://www.culinaryincubator.com/maps.php?state=CA. Accessed February 12, 2018. 68 Hollyer, James, et al. Some costs and considerations for establishing an entrepreneurial community shared-use kitchen or “test-kitchen incubator”. Food Manufacturing and Technology 2 (2000). 69 San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, Appendix J: Regional Growth Forecast, http://www.sdforward.com/pdfs/Final_PDFs/AppendixJ.pdf, 2015. 70 2016-2020 Coordinated Plan, http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2056_20920.pdf, 2016. 71 San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan, Appendix H: Social Equity Engagement and Analysis, http://www.sdforward.com/pdfs/Final_PDFs/AppendixH.pdf, 2015.

28 29

72 Ozer EJ, McDonald KL. Exposure to violence and mental health among Chinese American urban adolescents, 2006. 73 Perez-Smith AM, Albus KE, Weist MD. Exposure to violence and neighborhood affiliation among inner-city youth, 2001. 74 San Francisco Safety Network. Community Survey on Public Safety. April 2006. Analysis provided by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. Accessed on July 5, 2006 at: http://www.safetynetwork.org/article.php?id=60. 75 International Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design Association, http://www.cpted.net/. Accessed February 12, 2018. 76 Promote Healthy Communities Joint Call to Action, https://planning-org-uploaded- media.s3.amazonaws.com/document/Promote-Healthy-Communities-Joint-Call-to-Action-rev.pdf. Accessed January 10, 2018. 77 Plan4Health: http://plan4health.us/. 78 American Planning Association, Planning and Community Health Center Planners4Health, https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/health/planners4health/. 79 SANDAG Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast, http://www.sandag.org/index.asp?classid=12&subclassid=84&projectid=503&fuseaction=projects.detail. Accessed February 14, 2018. 80 AARP Livable Communities, Network of Age-Friendly Communities: An Introduction, https://www.aarp.org/livable-communities/network-age-friendly-communities/info-2014/an- introduction.html. Accessed February 7, 2018. 81 AARP Livable Communities web site, https://www.aarp.org/livable-communities/. Accessed February 14, 2018. 82 Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, Healthy Communities. 2017. http://www.opr.ca.gov/docs/OPR_C6_final.pdf. Accessed January 31, 2018. 83 Rudolph, L., Caplan, J. Ben-Moshe, K., & Dillon, L. (2013). Health in All Policies: A Guide for State and Local Governments. Washington, DC and Oakland, CA: American Public Health Association and Public Health Institute. 84 See http://www.healthyeatingactivecommunities.org/grantee_showcase1_2.php for a summary of the Chula Vista Healthy Eating Active Communities project. 85 See http://www.ccwsd.org/about-coi-actionplan.htm. 86 Health and Human Services Agency, Border Health Program, https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/hhsa/programs/phs/border_health_program/index.html. Accessed February 20, 2018. 87 Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, CalEnviroScreen 3.0, https://www.huduser.gov/healthycommunities/node/160058. Accessed January 25, 2018. 88 California Department of Public Health, Healthy Communities Data & Indicators Project, https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OHE/Pages/Healthy-Communities-Data-and-Indicators-Project-(HCI).aspx. Accessed January 25, 2018. 89 Live Well San Diego, Indicators Dashboard and Data Portal, http://www.livewellsd.org/content/livewell/home/data-results/indicators-dashboard-and-data-portal.html. Accessed January 24, 2018. 90 National Climate Assessment, Human Health, https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/human-health. Accessed January 29, 2018. 91 World Health Organization, 10 Facts on Climate Change and Health, http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/climate_change/facts/en/index9.html. Accessed December 18, 2009. 92 Climate Education Partners, San Diego, 2050 is Calling. 2014.

29 30

93 Healthy People 2020, Social Determinants of Health, https://www.healthypeople.gov/2020/topics- objectives/topic/social-determinants-of-health. Accessed February 7, 2018. 94 County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agency, Identifying Health Disparities to Achieve Health Equity in San Diego County: Socioeconomic Status, 2016, https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/CHS/healthequity/_HE_SES_FINAL.pdf. Accessed February 7, 2018. 95 Woolf, Steven H., Sarah M. Simon, Laudan Aron, Emily Zimmerman, Lisa Dubay, and Kim X. Luk, How Are Income and Wealth Linked to Health and Longevity?, Urban Institute and Center on Society and Health, 2015, https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/49116/2000178-How-are-Income-and-Wealth- Linked-to-Health-and-Longevity.pdf. Accessed February 12, 2018. 96 https://censusreporter.org/profiles/05000US06073-san-diego-county-ca/. 97 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2016 5-year estimates, San Diego County, Median Value (Dollars) and Median Income in the Past 12 Months. 98 Legislative Analyst’s Office, California’s High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences, 2015, http://www.lao.ca.gov/reports/2015/finance/housing-costs/housing-costs.aspx. Accessed February 12, 2018. 99 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, General Statistics. http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general- statistics/fatalityfacts/state-by-state-overview. Accessed January 31, 2018. 100 Sallis, Jim, Driverless Cars Could Be Better or Worse for Our Health – It’s Up to Us, EconoTimes, 2003, https://www.econotimes.com/Driverless-cars-could-be-better-or-worse-for-our-health-its-up-to-us-1077286. Accessed January 4, 2018. 101 Ibid.

30 31 Attachment 2

2018

Economic Prosperity

WHITE PAPER THE SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

February 23, 2018

32 Contents

Introduction ...... 1 Current Economic Conditions in San Diego ...... 2 Existing Setting ...... 2 History of the San Diego Economy ...... 2 San Diego Economy Today ...... 3 Economic Development Partners ...... 6 Emerging Concepts ...... 7 Interrelationships ...... 10 How Transportation and Regional Planning Can Influence the San Diego Economy ...... 10 Equity Concerns from an Economic Perspective ...... 13 Relationships between the Economy and Environment ...... 14 Future Funding, Trends, and Possibilities ...... 15 Other Sources and Articles ...... 17

33 Introduction

As the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) develops regional policies and programs to guide transportation infrastructure investments over the next three decades, the vision for San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan) is “to facilitate the efficient movement of people and goods to support a sustainable and healthy region, a vibrant economy, and an outstanding quality of life for all.” To help achieve that vision, the objective of this white paper is to help readers understand the complex interrelationship between the transportation system and the dynamic San Diego economy, and the role that SANDAG plays in both. In sum, it helps illuminate how transportation investments will help improve economic prosperity for the region. This white paper will provide some background for examining economic issues in the context of the 2019 Regional Plan, including background information and summary data on the current economy, a brief discussion of forecast trends, a description of interrelationships between economic prosperity and transportation and other Regional Plan topic areas, discussion of key economic considerations and policies to be included in the 2019 Regional Plan, and a description of the economic analysis to be conducted for the 2019 Regional Plan.

Economies are dynamic; they change, and change constantly. But the San Diego economic system always has been linked to our physical environment: the seaport brought the fishermen and the Navy; the Navy and the quality of life brought the high-tech sector; the proximity to the border enhanced international competitiveness; the beaches and weather brought the tourists. In turn, these industries helped shape the built environment of the region: the industrial waterfront, the military bases, the resorts, the convention center, the border crossings, and beach communities and cities. Overlaid on the local economic framework are factors outside local control. Globalization affects the structure of our economy, and national political decisions affect military and research expenditures and our relationship with Mexico.

The residents and policymakers of San Diego influence much of the region’s economy, particularly the decisions that shape the built environment in which the economy functions. As we have come to understand the natural world better, the concept of “habitat” for plants and animals has become familiar. In many ways the infrastructure of our cities and towns—the transportation system, downtowns, industrial areas, public spaces—act as the habitat for our business community. Different businesses, like different species, thrive in various built habitats. These habitats are shaped by cities, planning agencies, counties, states, and the federal government, using tools such as zoning, tax policy, transportation investment, and other means.

The 2019 Regional Plan presents an opportunity to shape our business habitat for the 21st century. Over the next thirty years, billions of dollars will be invested in the San Diego region to create, maintain, and improve transportation and other infrastructure. The 2019 Regional Plan will provide a framework for much of the transportation infrastructure that will help determine how the region will grow and evolve.

This Economic Prosperity White Paper will begin by surveying current economic conditions in San Diego and examining some important concepts in economic development. Next, it will explore the interrelationship between the economy, transportation, and regional planning, with consideration of disadvantaged communities (for the purposes of this paper, low-income populations1), and the relationship between the economy and the environment. Lastly, this white paper will explore the

1 34 ways the 2019 Regional Plan might influence the regional economy, including a brief discussion of funding sources and opportunities.

Current Economic Conditions in San Diego

Existing Setting The San Diego region is in an enviable economic position. The population of San Diego is younger, better-educated, and earns more than the national average. Average age is about 35.7, versus 37.9 for the U.S. as a whole; a higher percentage of San Diegans have Bachelor’s degrees, Master’s degrees, professional degrees, and PhDs than the U.S. generally; and median household income is over $70,000, which is $12,000 higher than the U.S. median.2 San Diego’s unemployment rate trends slightly lower than the national average, but our economy is diversified with sizable high-tech, education, health, military, and tourism sectors. The region also boasts a high quality of life, with excellent weather and one of the shortest average commute times of any major metro area in the U.S.3 San Diego also has a diverse and multi-cultural population, and the busiest land border crossing in the world connecting it to an important economic partner – Baja California, Mexico.

Of course, the San Diego region also has its share of challenges, among them the high cost of living— particularly housing—compared to prevailing wages, as well as wait times at the border that are estimated to cost the region billions annually in lost output.4 San Diego has an “hourglass economy” with many higher-paying jobs and many lower-paying jobs and relatively few in between; this type of divergence has been found in the national economy as well.

San Diego also is changing demographically. The region is forecast to get older, and more ethnically diverse, with the white population expected to go from roughly half of San Diego today to less than a third by 2050. By 2050, the region is expected to add almost 700,000 residents, almost half a million new jobs, and a nearly third of a million new housing units. Population growth primarily will consist of natural increase (i.e., births outnumbering deaths) and international immigration.5

History of the San Diego Economy Once characterized as a sleepy Navy town, later as a tourist destination, San Diego’s economy has diversified and matured over the last 75 years as the population has increased from under 300,000 to over 3.3 million residents. Before World War II, 70 percent of jobs in the local economy were in traditional sectors such as military, manufacturing, construction, finance, and retail and wholesale trade; today this figure is less than 50 percent. In 1940, The military accounted for about 20 percent of the region’s employment. This figure ballooned to nearly half during the early 1950s and remained prominent throughout the Cold War.

The 1960s brought the emergence of the tourism and hospitality industry, the opening of the University of California, San Diego (UC San Diego), which became a key economic engine, and the approval of maquiladoras in Mexico, which allowed U.S. firms access to low-cost manufacturing. By the 1980s, tourism was booming, and the nascent life sciences sector was beginning to take root. Base Realignment and Closure shuttered the Naval Training Center in the early 1990s and helped reduce jobs in the military sector to today’s 9 percent despite a steady military presence. The 2000s brought the dot-com bust, the September 11 attacks, and the Great Recession.

2 35 San Diego Economy Today Today, San Diego boasts an economy that is not dominated by any one sector; in fact, no sector accounts for more than 15 percent of the regional economy. Several sectors are “economic drivers,” specifically tourism, the military, and the “innovation” sector, which together make up a third of the regional economy. Tourism is an obvious strength, due in part to the weather, the beaches, the San Diego Zoo, and the Convention Center. The military is pivoting toward Asia and has committed to San Diego, as have many military contractors, like General Dynamics (makers of the Predator drone) and ViaSat (satellite communications leaders). Moreover, innovation will continue to drive San Diego’s economy, with forward-looking technologies with massive growth potential from companies like QUALCOMM (pioneers in mobile phone technology), Illumina (revolutionized DNA sequencing with tremendous potential to improve healthcare and quality of life), and ESET (cybersecurity experts).

Figure 1

San Diego also fares well in industries like healthcare, education, and a lean government sector. These sectors are generally population-driven—they rise in tandem with population—and, like the economic driver sectors, have proven through the Great Recession to be less affected by economic cycles. In sum, “recession-resilient” sectors account for over 60 percent of the San Diego economy.

As mentioned, the San Diego economy is balanced and not reliant on any one industry, with no single sector accounting for more than 15 percent of regional employment. The diverse distribution of

3 36 employment helps buffer San Diego from economic downturns, with 60 percent of regional employment in recession-resilient sectors (i.e., sectors less impacted by national business cycles). The military and tourism provide a stable and diverse employment base, but the economy also is well-positioned for the 21st century, fueled by the next wave of business drivers, our innovation sector, which includes biotech and biomedical, information technology, cleantech, and aerospace jobs.

Figure 2

Much of San Diego’s forward-looking economy can be traced back to our higher learning institutions and research facilities, like the Salk Institute, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, San Diego State University, the University of San Diego, California State University San Marcos, and UC San Diego. 19 institutions of higher education enroll 270,000 students in the region. UC San Diego specifically is a highly ranked research university that has spawned hundreds of businesses, many of which remain important local employers, and which together employ about 4 percent of San Diego workers. Moreover, UC San Diego’s commitment to generating economic opportunity is evident through their business-friendly approach to licensing technologies to new startup companies that simplifies the transfer of copyrights and licenses for a minimal equity in the company.

Incubated by world-class research institutions, San Diego’s Innovation sector has grown considerably over the last 25 years, posting a growth rate ten times that of the rest of the economy. It now represents nearly 12 percent of San Diego’s local economy and employs almost 170,000 people in high-paying jobs. The innovation sector also is diverse, featuring information and communication technology, biotechnology and biomedical, aerospace and navigation, and “cleantech.” San Diego is the third most patent-intensive region in the U.S., the top destination for National Institutes of Health research funding, first in life-sciences laboratory space, and the number one place in the U.S. to launch a start-up.

4 37 As noted, San Diego has a long and successful relationship with the military. San Diego’s economy will benefit from the decision, dubbed the “Pacific Pivot,” to reallocate 60 percent of military assets to the west coast over the next decade. During the next few years, 50 percent more ships will be berthed in San Diego, and billions of dollars will be invested by the Navy in infrastructure like the Navy Seal training facility. The presence of the military attracts $8.4 billion in government contracts each year, and 125,000 San Diegans (approximately 1 in 11) are directly employed by the military or the Department of Defense. Many of these jobs are highly skilled, and all generate indirect employment effects in many other sectors throughout the economy. With a large deepwater port, a dozen military installations, and a well-developed support economy, San Diego is an irreproducible ecosystem for the military.

Many people’s first association with San Diego is as a tourism destination, and in large part, they are correct. San Diego is routinely listed as the number one domestic travel destination (e.g., in Money Magazine’s 2016 assessment). As a result, San Diego’s hospitality sector grew four times as fast as its overall economy during the past 27 years. Nearly 35 million visitors come to San Diego annually, bringing almost $10 billion into the regional economy. While tourism jobs pay slightly less than the average, they provide ample entry-level employment.

San Diego is home to the largest land crossing in the western hemisphere, and the economic impact is significant. Over the past decade (2008 to 2017), the value of trade through the border has risen by nearly a third.6 The maquiladoras provide highly skilled workers in technologically advanced factories where costs can be a fraction of what they would be in the United States; many San Diego companies rely on this access to high-quality manufacturing.

The diverse and robust San Diego economy has resulted in strong job growth and low unemployment for San Diegans and a regional economy that is less susceptible to traditional business cycles. San Diego’s unemployment rate stands, as of December 2017, at an exceptionally low 3.3 percent, lower than both California (4.3%) and the U.S. as a whole (4.1%).

The San Diego region is in the midst of a reassessment of past housing and development practices. In prior eras, it was assumed that housing would continue to spread east into the back-country; but jurisdictions throughout the county have responded to residents’ concerns about sprawl and adjusted their general plans to concentrate growth in existing communities. Beneficially, much of the recent development has been in multi-family housing in downtown areas, which generally are less expensive and are attractive to younger, high-skill workers (and some senior buyers) who prefer active, vibrant communities. As open land acceptable for residential development is in short supply, demand continues to outstrip the pace of building, and while San Diego housing costs are less than those of comparable coastal metropolitan areas, prices and rents are higher than California or the U.S. as whole and represent a challenge to additional economic growth and to the economic well-being of many residents. For example, it is estimated that only about a quarter of the San Diego households can afford a median-priced home, despite historically low mortgage interest rates.

The San Diego economy is healthy, but it is tethered to the global, national, and state economies. Globally, the economies of both advanced and emerging nations have begun to retain momentum. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, global growth looks to be in the 3.7 percent range in 2018, which is improvement over previous years. Nationally, growth continues at a slow and steady pace, with the Federal Open Market Committee revising their growth forecast for 2018 up to 2.5 percent, and with the national economy seemingly shrugging off political

5 38 tensions. Wage growth also has begun to move forward after a decade of stasis. In California, the economy continues to overcome challenges, with significant growth in the high-tech, healthcare, and tourism sectors more than offsetting lagging sectors.

As the economy improves, the gains are not shared equally. While 130,000 new jobs were created in San Diego from 2010 to 2015, the average salary of new jobs was well was below the average salary for existing jobs, which decreased the average salary in the region. The healthcare sector is a prime example of this phenomenon; while almost 25,000 new jobs were created from 2010 to 2015, they were not primarily highly paid doctors and registered nurses, but home health aides and aides in residential facilities. The average salary in that sector fell from $56,000 to $42,000. Real hourly wages (hourly wages that have been adjusted for inflation) have been flat in San Diego for a decade, while costs, primarily housing costs, have risen precipitously. This stagnation produces circumstances where despite an economy with low unemployment and generally excellent health, many San Diego residents are not able to participate in the prosperity. In the long run, this divide can threaten the city’s well-being if San Diego ceases to be an attractive place to live compared with cheaper areas and those with lower incomes see their opportunities dwindle and their economic potential go unfulfilled.

While analysis of the San Diego regional economy is revealing, it is important to note that the San Diego region is diverse and physically large, with 3.3 million residents, 18 municipalities and the County of San Diego, 17 Native American Tribes, a metropolitan area that shares an international boundary with Mexico, with military bases spanning north, central, and southern San Diego, and an area with an abundance of endangered species and sensitive habitat lands. The policies and economic issues that guide Downtown San Diego, for example, differ from those most relevant to the rural east or the beach communities. North County has different challenges than South County and the border area, and the Tribes have unique economic and cultural concerns.

Economic Development Partners While SANDAG has many responsibilities as the Metropolitan Planning Organization, its primary responsibilities are in regional transportation planning. SANDAG influences local land use and economic policies through regional transportation investments in transit, highways, bike infrastructure, freight corridors, transportation demand management, transportation system management, and supporting programs, and through financial incentives such as grants from the TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program, Active Transportation Grant Program, and Environmental Mitigation Program. SANDAG also influences land use and economic policies through technical assistance via the Smart Growth Toolbox and through localized and customized modeling and forecasting work. As a regional agency, SANDAG is uniquely positioned to bring together decision makers from all areas of the region to discuss issues of mutual concern and coordination.

In both economic research and policy, SANDAG collaborates with a variety of partners, including regional economic development corporations, chambers of commerce, municipal economic development departments, partners in Baja California, Tribal nations, and neighboring counties to strengthen the economy of the region. In addition, many of these groups, as well as local universities, work to understand the structure of the San Diego regional economy and explore ways to improve. The strategy is not about creating a specific economic plan, but about collaboration between stakeholders. These organizations research the region’s economic strengths and shortcomings and identify the tools needed to reshape the economy; they also conduct economic studies such as

6 39 industry cluster and sector analyses, cross-border and export trade reports, infrastructure plans, and workforce and job training programs.

The San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation (EDC) enhances regional economic competitiveness and supports the San Diego region’s key industries, with policy priorities to improve the region’s emerging industries, workforce, infrastructure, transportation, housing, and access to capital. Recent initiatives include a regional strategy to protect and grow San Diego’s defense assets; a plan to boost San Diego’s international profile; and a program focused on attracting and retaining top talent. The San Diego Regional EDC also works with other regional and local organizations to support research initiatives, including studies on the region’s key industries, such as genomics.7

The San Diego Workforce Partnership (SDWP) funds job training programs to meet the region's demand for qualified workers, and researches the local labor market to identify goals and strategies designed to meet the needs of both employers and workers in San Diego County. The SDWP recently focused on “priority sectors” where employers need workers and on the roughly 43,000 “opportunity youth” in San Diego—young people between the ages of 16 and 24 who are neither working or in school.

The San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce coordinates with other regional and local agencies on economic development and business policies, and produces and is a hub for business collaboration. The sub-regional EDCs initiate economic development plans, programs, and policies that build on regional initiatives. The South County Economic Development Council promotes economic development and investment in the southern part of the county, and encourages cooperation with businesses in Baja California. The East County EDC works to strengthen the economic base in the eastern part of the county. Likewise, the San Diego North Economic Development Council works in the northern part of the county to support the business community there. All sub-regional EDCs support localized cluster and sector studies as well as targeted business outreach to those clusters and sectors that support regional and sub-regional growth.

Although most municipal economic development organizations focus on local and site-specific strategies, many of their plans and policies align with regional plans and initiatives. For example, the City of San Diego recently administered the Business Improvement District program to promote local business. The City also operates Civic San Diego, a non-profit that focuses on economic development in underserved neighborhoods.

Emerging Concepts For much of the last two decades, research in regional planning economics has focused on the effects of “smart growth” (sustainable development), specifically focusing on trends that have reinvigorated the centers of many American cities and metropolitan areas and creating new development in communities and neighborhoods of all sizes. Smart growth is of particular relevance to the urbanized areas of the San Diego region, which grew outward during the era in which automobile transportation was the most accessible option; local jurisdictions are seeking to redevelop many neighborhoods to accommodate population growth.

New research focuses on inequality and housing. By and large, the trends creating compact communities of mixed-use development served by public transit and allowing for active transportation such as walking and cycling are positive for the economy, potentially reducing environmental, transportation, and health costs while creating economic choice and a quality of life

7 40 that is attractive, especially to younger, high-skill workers.8 While this type of growth can occur without significant additional traffic congestion, there are important limits to this type of development in many places, including in San Diego. First, as the dense centers of cities become more attractive, they become more expensive; this has led to skyrocketing housing costs even in the wake of a significant residential construction boom in denser areas of San Diego. The increase in housing costs can push poorer residents away from areas serviced by transit options that lower-income residents often rely on. There is evidence that lower-income residents are switching to private vehicles as they move further from city centers.9 Second, the San Diego region has a highly dispersed development pattern, with a general lack of density. While the redevelopment of urban centers is positive, the region does not have either the strong central business district or the profusion of compact neighborhoods that make transit and other alternative modes a viable option for the majority of residents.10

SANDAG conducted an analysis of the region’s commuting patterns,11 and the results clearly show the dispersed nature of residents’ travel patterns. 71 percent of residents commute to work outside of the jurisdiction in which they live. Similar results are true for businesses: the vast majority of their employees tend to come from outside the jurisdiction. As an example, the maps below show the place of work for employed Carlsbad residents (Figure 3), and where employees of Carlsbad businesses live (Figure 4). People live and work in highly diffused patterns—the pattern is clear and holds true for all jurisdictions in San Diego, which makes transit and active transportation challenging.

Figure 3 Figure 4

While the development trends of the last 70 years, suburbanization followed by re-emergence of city cores and denser development, offer some insights into how San Diego will continue to change,

8 41 emerging transportation technologies will play an increasing role in the transportation system, and will both respond to and help shape San Diego’s development pattern, as well as the structure of the economy. Considerable uncertainty surrounds these technologies. Ridesharing services like Uber and Lyft could benefit transit by providing “last mile” solutions, or they could poach riders. Autonomous and connected vehicles could reduce traffic congestion by increasing efficiency, or could exacerbate it by encouraging people to live even further from work and amenities. Technologies to improve telecommuting could finally allow working from home to become common, as has been predicted for decades. Online shopping could reduce the need for personal trips, or could clog the roads with delivery vehicles. Intelligent transportation policy and infrastructure responses to the opportunities and challenges of these emerging technologies will be critical to ensure that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.

The key point is that development patterns have economic consequences on housing prices, municipal revenues, business location decisions, and residential and employment opportunities. Development patterns also influence transportation options, which have economic consequences, such as the relative costs and benefits of highways and transit, accessibility of jobs and residential areas, traffic congestion and time consumed in commuting, health effects of transportation modes, and business development. Spatial patterns and associated transportation systems also have environmental impacts that have economic ramifications, such as the costs of pollution generated by differing transportation modes, and open-space and habitat-conservation needs. The effects of these patterns should be analyzed so that municipalities and economic development professionals can have the best information available to make complex decisions that affect land use and transportation investments.

By 2050, SANDAG forecasts that there will be roughly 700,000 more residents of San Diego County, nearly half a million new jobs, and almost a third of a million new housing units.12 These growth numbers are substantially lower than previous estimates, and depend less on an influx of new residents, and more on natural increase (i.e., births outnumbering deaths of current residents). How these additional people, jobs, and houses fit into San Diego will determine the physical shape of the region, the transportation system, and the economy.

Figure 5

Local general plans have been modified significantly over the last decade to accommodate growth within the most urbanized areas of the region where there is existing and planned public transit. These changes in local plans support and reinforce investments in transportation and housing options

9 42 for the region’s residents. Figure 5 shows expected job and housing growth to 2050 with job growth in purple and housing growth in blue, showing that the vast majority of development will occur within the already developed footprint.

A key question of the San Diego regional economy in the coming years is: will we successfully invest in transportation to connect the population in San Diego with an adequate supply of well-paying jobs for which they are prepared, and to an adequate supply of housing they can afford?

Interrelationships

How Transportation and Regional Planning Can Influence the San Diego Economy As noted, the infrastructure of a region, including the transportation infrastructure, forms part of the economic “habitat” in which businesses engage in their fight for survival. As different animal and plant species thrive in different conditions, so do different businesses require a variety of conditions. As thriving ecosystems that support many types of adaptable species are more resilient and rich in a biological sense, diversified economies like San Diego’s also are likely to be resilient and prosperous.

In economic terms, public infrastructure is a “public good” in that it loosely meets the definition of being both non-excludable (i.e., difficult to prevent people from using) and non-rivalrous (i.e., one person’s use of the good does not inhibit another’s). In economic theory, the private market does not provide optimal levels of public goods, and the common solution for this market failure is government provision of the good. As governments seek to make sound investments in provision of public goods, they must weigh competing projects and the expected rates of return (which are difficult to measure in this context) and gauge the optimal level of the resource overall, as businesses do.

The transportation system acts as the economic circulatory system, allowing businesses to access raw materials, ship finished goods, and reach customers and providing a way for employees to get from home to work. A healthy economy requires a healthy circulatory system, and the San Diego region is fortunate to have a system that includes robust freeways and arterials, multiple airports, a seaport, expanding bikeways and active transportation options, a growing transit system, and shared-use mobility services. This transportation system includes connection to Mexico, a critical trading partner, as well as to the surrounding counties and 17 Native American Tribes.

The transportation system does not simply support the economic activity in a region: transportation (and related land-use decisions) influence the economy. To explore these interrelationships, it is instructive to explore patterns of employment and housing in the San Diego region, the economic activity that transportation and land use decisions generate, and the challenges and opportunities facing them.

Many of San Diego’s economic sectors are physically clustered in “employment centers,” which allow opportunities to develop a more-compact development pattern. Using analysis of travel patterns, regional agencies can plan for improved transportation options, such as the in-progress Mid-Coast Trolley line.

10 43 Suburban job centers like Sorrento Valley-Torrey Mesa and Kearny Mesa are major residential and commercial/light industrial areas for which significant jobs and housing growth is likely. Oftentimes, however, areas such as these already see significant traffic delays as they have been designed in largely car-oriented ways. The challenge is to accommodate economic growth and improve traffic, with additional transit and active transportation options. New transportation options can be enhanced by Transit-Oriented Development, which is specifically designed to take maximum advantage of the transit. However, while these are areas of dense employment, retrofitting these areas for provision of transit and active transportation infrastructure is both expensive and challenging, and will only be accomplished over the long term and with consistent effort.

Figure 6

Areas with significant development potential are likely to experience significant increases in intensity of use, whether residential, commercial, or industrial. Areas like these, which often are somewhat distant from the urban core, offer lower land costs and can become employment centers and home to a greater number of residents. The critical issues in areas such as these are creation of transportation infrastructure that fits a variety of needs and balancing plans for industry, new residents, protection of the natural environment, and the needs of current residents. Otay Mesa, for example, is a rapidly developing area in the southern portion of the City of San Diego, for which variety of transit and highway projects, including a new border crossing, are proposed. Eastern Chula Vista is another example of a rapidly growing area of this type.

Redeveloping core neighborhoods, both in large cities and smaller jurisdictions, are primed to absorb a large chunk of the residential and job growth. These areas often are well-served by transit and highways, both existing and planned, and are attractive to residents that desire compact, walkable communities and minimal commuting hassle. Significant economic development, both small (e.g., shops and bistros) and large (e.g., office buildings and regional attractions such as art centers), characterize such areas, and the challenges of development in these areas often are tied to the

11 44 difficulty of permitting and financing in often-crowded city areas and in assessing the needs of existing residents and neighboring communities. The East Village section of the City of San Diego, located just east of Downtown San Diego and the Gaslamp Quarter, is an example of this type of area, with many new residential and mixed-use buildings. The Downtown Specific Plan for the City of Escondido, with its vision of “a dynamic, attractive, economically vital city center providing social, cultural, economic, and residential focus” is another example.

Different areas in the San Diego region clearly have different economic needs, goals, and outlooks. The challenge to the region is to plan for a transportation system that facilitates all types of economic development.

Transit allows for density of activity because the large physical space needs of automobiles can be reduced. Transit also allows access to jobs for people who cannot or prefer not to drive: the young, the elderly, and increasingly, professionals attracted to urban-style living. Shared-use mobility services also can supplement transit by improving access to transit. The challenge is to provide transit options in less-dense areas that still are effective and cost-efficient.

The highways and road network must be maintained, expanded, and optimized. The road system will continue to be the main mover of people and goods. Given spatial constraints, highway projects will involve more efficient use of limited space, through the construction of “Managed Lanes,” through the implementation of advanced technologies, or both. The local road system will need to be designed to optimize traffic flow while accommodating distinct types of business development.

While highways and regional arterial roads are critical to economic needs like goods movement and general measures of accessibility, local and neighborhood-level economic development may depend less on maximizing traffic flow and more on creating and maintaining attractive public spaces. The development of thriving mixed-use areas will require a careful analysis of how to best spend public funds on physical infrastructure.

Encouraging and building infrastructure for active transportation, such as walking and cycling, has several benefits. Active transportation can reduce congestion on roads, have a positive effect on public health and associated costs, and help develop neighborhoods. In addition, active transportation provides options and connections to transit for residents that lack automobiles. In this way, active transportation can complement and improve other transit investments.

The San Diego region is home to 12 airports that can serve as regional or local economic development generators, though only two are certified by the Federal Aviation Administration for commercial service, and all have physical limitations. The economics of air travel are not generally under local control, and smaller airports have seen airline traffic cuts, but airports will continue to be essential economic hubs, especially for tourism-heavy San Diego. A cross-border facility that links the Otay Mesa area and Tijuana International Airport opened in 2015.

While 98 percent of freight movement in the San Diego region is by truck, the Port of San Diego and the rail system plan to improve to meet growing demand for freight in an increasingly international economy. At the same time, both are up against significant physical restraints. The importance of trade in providing high-wage jobs that bring investment and revenue from outside of the region means that it is critical to continue to improve the connections of the region to both the southern California “megaregion” and the global economy.

12 45 Transportation and land-use decisions can influence economic growth, and can be considered an economic development tool. There is evidence that the physical “clustering” of types of businesses can have positive effects on growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship.13,14 The life sciences and brewing industries in San Diego provide ready evidence of this effect. If, for example, the San Diego region wants to be a high-tech hub, it must encourage the type of atmosphere that tech firms seek. Economic activity such as retail, manufacturing, freight movement, and residential construction require optimal transportation and land-use habitats as well. Businesses depend on roadways, rails, and ports, but they also depend on sidewalks and parks to attract customers and employees and on the educational system to produce viable employees and educated customers. The economic effects of public investment—including environmental effects, public health effects, social effects, and others in our interconnected economic system—must be considered properly in an economic sense for policymakers to make effective decisions.

To help measure the economic effects of the 2019 Regional Plan, SANDAG is preparing an economic analysis with two primary areas of focus. The first is a Benefit-Cost analysis to measure, using the innovative tool developed for the 2015 Regional Plan, the economic effect of the transportation improvements planned. Such benefits will include travel-time savings, safety improvements, emissions reductions, health effects, and auto-ownership costs, and are directly calculated from the output of the SANDAG Activity-Based Travel Model. In 2015, this analysis showed that for every $1 invested in the Regional Plan, almost $2 of benefits to society were created. The second facet will be an expanded economic impact measure. Traditional economic impact measures focus on the economic stimulus achieved by the construction and operations expenditures, and the SANDAG analysis will include this focus, but also will explore how the increased efficiency of the transportation system translates into increased economic activity by reducing transportation costs for businesses and individuals. A similar analysis in the 2015 Regional Plan showed that these cost reductions would mean tens of thousands of new jobs in the region by 2050 versus a “no-build” scenario. In addition, the analysis will present a detailed look at the regional economy and how the region can maintain its health and diversity. While there are limitations to any economic analysis, the goal of this economic analysis is to present information that will help inform and influence the choices the region will make over the next 30 years.

Equity Concerns from an Economic Perspective The critical issue for economic vulnerable populations15 that the 2019 Regional Plan can address is access. Low-income residents in areas without adequate public transit often must spend disproportionate amounts of time and money to access education, jobs, and recreation. A key strategy to address the plight of low-income residents is to improve transportation options. Access is equally important to employers who want to draw from a wide pool of potential employees of varying skill levels. Failing to encourage the economic integration of low-income populations today can have generational impacts and reduce economic mobility in the long run.16 The importance of transportation options to the economically disadvantaged is difficult to overstate; without access to transportation, it is extremely difficult for individuals living in poverty to improve their economic prospects, as the cost of owning a private vehicle are often prohibitive. With investment in better transportation options, economic opportunity is increased, and these communities can thrive.

While the mandated social equity analysis of the economic impacts of the 2019 Regional Plan has yet to be conducted, the analysis for the 2015 Regional Plan showed that lower-income residents benefitted slightly more than the population as a whole from transportation investments, and that

13 46 their access to jobs, education, and amenities increased substantially.17 It is evident that lower-income communities in the San Diego region have the need and potential for economic development. Many of these communities are relatively close to the core of San Diego, Escondido, and other communities in San Diego County. Like other metropolitan areas around the country, the San Diego region has seen a resurgence in development in the central cities and surrounding neighborhoods, a trend which is likely to continue. Some are concerned that this type of development can lead to gentrification, and argue that it displaces the economically disadvantaged and weakens community identity, but recent research indicates that residents in neighborhoods that have seen substantial increases in housing prices enjoyed improved economic health.18 The same study indicates that despite high overall costs of housing, San Diego has not experienced a high degree of neighborhoods changing from low-cost to high-cost, though increases are possible, and rapid development often is seen in neighborhoods with good access to public transit.19 The intent is not to diminish the impact of high housing costs on low-income residents of San Diego; the focus should be on providing more housing, which can lower housing costs for all, with the most benefit for low-income residents who likely pay a large percentage of their income for housing.

Relationships between the Economy and Environment In economic theory, the inputs to economic production are usually referred to as “land, labor, capital, and raw materials.” The environment is not usually considered beyond the land and raw materials nature can provide. However, as the science of economics has advanced, concepts such as pollution as an “externality,” or of “ecosystem services,” have become more generally understood, and a healthy natural environment is known to be both a cause and a result of economic health; a cause in that economic damage is a hindrance to economic development, and a result in that wealthier economies demand higher environmental quality.

The San Diego region is fortunate to have a quality environment and a healthy economy that is, in many ways, based on that environment. The tourism economy relies heavily on the environment, and the quality-of-life issues that make San Diego such an attractive place to live also hinge on environmental factors. In an economic sense, protecting the environment sometimes means balancing the needs of industry with environmental considerations. Frequently, though, in San Diego and elsewhere, the technologies and approaches that benefit the environment also are beneficial to the economic bottom line when costs and benefits are properly understood.

Environmental regulations have costs and benefits. While costs can be obvious, the benefits of considering the environment in an economic context are twofold. First, the economy as a whole can become more efficient when costs of environmental degradation are reduced with policies that have proven to be strikingly cost-effective for the economy as a whole,20 and sometimes for the private sector, as in the case of energy efficiency.21

Second, a region could become a leader in environmental technologies or strategies that could lead it to develop a comparative advantage over other regions in these products. This is the case in the San Diego region, where over 7,000 jobs with an average wage of over $87,000, are in the “cleantech” sector, which produces products and services related to renewable energy, alternative energy, and energy efficiency.22 In fact, Cleantech San Diego, an industry group, estimates the numbers to be much higher.23 The general outlook for these environmental services and technologies is positive, as environmental problems increase globally with population growth.24

14 47 Many of the region’s environmental challenges, while complex, can be dealt with effectively on a case-by-case basis, though cooperative solutions may be preferable. The issue of global climate change, however, is interwoven with most other environmental issues, but also with the structure of the economy and the physical infrastructure of the region. California has enacted aggressive climate change policies that will affect many aspects of the economy and will likely result in both substantial costs and in many business opportunities.

Climate change has the potential to present substantial costs to the San Diego region, from impacts of sea-level rise and increased storm activity on the region’s high-value oceanfront and vulnerable transportation infrastructure to the impact on energy needs, agricultural disruption, and public health. There is considerable uncertainty as to the timing and severity of these impacts and to our ability to avoid, mitigate, and/or adapt to them should they occur to any substantial degree. Technological and engineering solutions of varying cost and effectiveness could mitigate or prevent many of the effects, but it is likely that behavioral changes will be required as well.

The positive aspect of taking steps to avoid or mitigate climate change is that they assist with many of the other objectives in the 2019 Regional Plan and can have substantial economic benefits. For example, a push to improve energy and water efficiency, if well-designed, can benefit the San Diego economy, independent of its effect on climate change, by saving money and encouraging efficiency in markets that have not historically had strong conservation incentives. The same is true for air quality; a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions is likely to have associated reductions in pollutants that result in positive health effects. Land use regulations, zoning, and transportation infrastructure intended to reduce transportation carbon dioxide emissions can create denser, mixed-use communities that can be more desirable to the growing populations of younger professionals, singles, and seniors. These steps also can lead to better health outcomes and improved access to schools, jobs, and recreation for those with limited resources, increasing economic opportunity. Assessing and preparing for vulnerabilities of drought and severe weather can have substantial economic benefits, even if the frequency and intensity of these natural phenomena does not increase.

The cost-effectiveness of any climate-change or environmental mitigation strategy may be difficult to quantify using existing analytical tools, but as with all environmental concerns, it is important to remember that the environment and the economy are not separate, but intertwined. To obtain the most accurate picture of the economic effects of policy decisions concerning transportation and land use, it is critical to analyze their impact on the environment.

SANDAG will analyze the environmental and greenhouse gas effects of the 2019 Regional Plan in detail in the Environmental Impact Report.25

Future Funding, Trends, and Possibilities As SANDAG plans for the next 30+ years of transportation investment, one noteworthy uncertainty is the availability of funds to complete these investments. Funding sources—local, state, and federal— rely on policies and priorities determined by political processes over which San Diego has little control. It has been demonstrated locally that even a dedicated funding stream from sales taxes can vary from year to year as economic conditions fluctuate and consumer behavior changes. The effects of state and local tax policy, such as gas tax rates or e-commerce taxation, can have outsize impact on local revenues. The financial details of the plan will be presented in the 2019 Regional Plan’s financial report,26 but the difficulty of forecasting the future economic and political conditions is severe. The

15 48 important facts are that transportation infrastructure is critical to our region’s economic health and that funding can often be scarce.

The ability of SANDAG to directly influence the region’s economy is limited. While transportation planning is critical to the future economic health of the San Diego region, the economy is an amalgam of federal, state, and local rules that guide the complex interactions among the thousands of businesses that call the region home, and between the businesses in our region and the wider economic world. Decisions, issues, and conditions far from San Diego have large impacts in our region, and few of these factors are within control of the residents of the San Diego region.

Despite this, SANDAG, as a region-wide agency, can help the San Diego region succeed in the coming economy, which will be more global, with global trade increasing and with technology increasing the interconnectedness of the world economy. However, the economy may also be more local as the value of community economic development expands and consumers continue to discover the pleasures of locally-produced goods and services.

In addition to helping provide a varied and efficient transportation infrastructure that provides the access to the local and global economy, SANDAG will continue to bring together the San Diego region’s business and academic leadership to study the regional economy, and will be a go-to resource for economic data and analysis for the San Diego region. By bringing the tools of economic analysis to bear on issues once considered outside the realm of economics, better decisions can be made.

16 49 Other Sources and Articles

• “Inclusive Prosperity Is Incredibly Rare”, CityLab, Mat 25, 2017; https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/05/inclusive-prosperity-is-incredibly-rare/527004/

• “What Cities Really Need to Attract Entrepreneurs, According to Entrepreneurs”, Atlantic Cities, February 11, 2014; http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2014/02/what- cities-really-need-attract-entrepreneurs-according-entrepreneurs/8349/

• “Urban Inequality and Access”, Brookings, August 15, 2016: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/08/15/urban-inequality-and-access-will- habitat-iii-rise-to-the-challenge/

• “Making Sure Dense Also Means Equitable”, American Society of Landscape Architects, April 17, 2013; http://dirt.asla.org/2013/04/17/making-sure-dense-also-means-equitable/

• “The Connection Between Vibrant Neighborhoods and Economic Growth”, CityLab, November 15, 2015; https://www.citylab.com/life/2015/11/the-connection-between-vibrant- neighborhoods-and-economic-growth/417714/

• “Transit and Regional Economic Development”, Center for Transit-Oriented Development, May 2011; http://www.reconnectingamerica.org/assets/Uploads/TransitandRegionalED2011.pdf

• “California’s High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences”, CA Legislative Analyst’s Office, May 17, 2015; http://lao.ca.gov/reports/2015/finance/housing-costs/housing-costs.aspx

• “Toward Inclusive Economic Development”, CityLab, February 29, 2016; https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/02/brookings-report-inclusive-economic-development- prosperity/471324/

• “Does BRT Have Economic Development Effects?”, Streets.mn, September 11, 2013; http://www.streets.mn/2013/09/11/does-brt-have-economic-development-effects/

• “The Great Growth Disconnect: Population Growth Does Not Equal Economic Growth” Atlantic Cities, September 30, 2013; http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and- economy/2013/09/great-growth-disconnect-population-growth-does-not-equal-economic- growth/5860/

• “Analyzing the Economic Impacts of Transportation Projects”, Connecticut Academy of Science and Engineering, September 2013; http://www.ct.gov/dot/lib/dot/documents/dresearch/ct-2279-f-13-13.pdf

• “What is San Diego’s Economic DNA?”, U-T San Diego, December 16, 2013; http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/dec/16/ucsd-extension-economy-book-dna-stanford- press/

• “What a City Needs to Foster Innovation: Cafes, Bike Lanes, and 3D Printers”, Atlantic Cities, January 16, 2014; http://qz.com/166874/what-a-city-needs-to-foster-innovation-cafes-bike- lanes-and-3d-printers/

• San Diego Workforce Partnership Reports; http://workforce.org/reports

17 50

1 Disadvantaged communities also include ethnic and racial minority populations and those over 75 years old, but this paper focuses specifically on economic disadvantages. 2 https://censusreporter.org/profiles/05000US06073-san-diego-county-ca/. 3 Ibid; https://censusreporter.org/profiles/05000US06073-san-diego-county-ca/. 4 “Economic Impacts of Wait Times at the San Diego–Baja California Border”; San Diego Association of Governments, January 19, 2006. http://www.sandag.org/programs/borders/binational/projects/2006_border_wait_impacts_execsum.pdf. This report is being updated by the San Diego Association of Governments. 5 California Department of Finance population forecast. 6 USA Trade online data. 7 San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation, “Initiatives”; http://www.sandiegobusiness.org/services/initiatives. 8 “Companies Say Goodbye to the ‘Burbs”; Wall Street Journal, December 4, 2013; http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304281004579222442197428538. 9 https://www.its.ucla.edu/2018/01/31/new-report-its-scholars-on-the-cause-of-californias-falling-transit- ridership/. 10 http://oldurbanist.blogspot.com/2012/05/density-and-transit-some-numbers.html. 11 http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2068_21065.pdf. 12 San Diego Association of Governments Series 13 forecast. 13 http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/COI_SanDiego_0077428b-c9b2-4527-abcf-4a9769e530c8.pdf. 14 http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2017_20489.pdf. 15 The San Diego Association of Governments is using 200 percent of federal poverty level as the threshold for vulnerable population in analyzing certain effects of San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan; other vulnerable populations include ethnic and racial minorities, and the elderly. The 200 percent of federal poverty threshold was chosen for the “low-income” category defined in San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan in recognition of the relatively high cost of living in the San Diego region as compared to the nation as a whole, with input from the San Diego Association of Governments network of community-based organizations who serve low-income populations whose representatives advised using 200 percent of the federal poverty line for analysis. 16 https://www.stlouisfed.org/community-development/publications/economic-mobility. 17 http://www.sdforward.com/pdfs/Final_PDFs/AppendixH.pdf. 18 Hartley, Daniel, “Gentrification and Financial Health”, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 6, 2013; http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2013/1113/01regeco.cfm. 19 “The Gentrification Puzzle”, Atlantic Cities, November 21, 2013; http://www.theatlanticcities.com/neighborhoods/2013/11/why-some-places-gentrify-more-others/7588/. 20 The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act from 1990 to 2020, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, March 2011; http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/feb11/summaryreport.pdf. 21 Gillingham, Kenneth, et al., “Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy”, Resources for the Future, April 2009; http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-09-13.pdf. 22 http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_2017_20489.pdf. 23 http://cleantechsandiego.org/annual_report/2017/#economic-output. 24 Occupational Outlook Handbook, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; https://www.bls.gov/ooh/. 25 Environmental Impact Report for the 2015 plan available here: http://www.sdforward.com/envimpactreport. 26 Financial assumptions for 2015 are here: http://www.sdforward.com/pdfs/Final_PDFs/AppendixO.pdf.

18 51 Attachment 3

20182018

Climate Change

WHITE PAPER THE SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

February 23, 2018

Contents

Introduction ...... 5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the San Diego Region ...... 5 Climate Change Impacts in the San Diego Region ...... 6 State, Regional, and Local Planning for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...... 7 California’s Strategy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...... 7 State Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals for the Passenger Vehicle Sector ...... 10 Regional and Local Planning for Climate Change ...... 12 Climate Change in the 2015 Regional Plan ...... 13 Climate Action Planning in the San Diego Region ...... 15 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies by Sector ...... 18 Reducing Emissions from Transportation Sector ...... 18 California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Transportation ...... 18 SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Transportation...... 19 Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Transportation ...... 20 Reducing Emissions from Land Use ...... 20 California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Land Use ...... 20 SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Land Use ...... 21 Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Land Use...... 21 Reducing Emissions from Electricity ...... 22 California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Electricity ...... 22 SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Electricity ...... 23 Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Electricity...... 24 Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Use ...... 25 California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses...... 25 SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses ...... 25 Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses ...... 25 Reducing Emissions from Water Sector ...... 26 California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Water Sector ...... 26 SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Water Sector ...... 26 Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Water Sector ...... 26 Reducing Emissions from Solid Waste ...... 27 Strategies to Prepare for Climate Change Impacts ...... 28 Climate Change Impacts to the San Diego Region ...... 28

2 53

California Climate Adaptation Planning ...... 28 Ocean and Coastal Resources ...... 29 Extreme Heat ...... 30 Wildfire ...... 30 Biodiversity/Habitat ...... 31 Water Management ...... 31 SANDAG Adaptation Planning Efforts ...... 31 Considering Climate Change Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure ...... 31 Shoreline Preservation ...... 32 Habitat Conservation ...... 32 Local Government Role in Adaptation Planning ...... 32 Interrelationships to Other Policy Areas ...... 34 Economics and Climate Change ...... 34 Public Health, Social Equity, and Climate Change ...... 35 Emerging Technologies ...... 36 SANDAG Plans and Programs and Collaborative Regional Activities to Address Climate Change ...... 38 SANDAG Plans and Programs ...... 38 Regional Energy Strategy (2009, 2014 Technical Update) ...... 38 Climate Action Strategy (2010) ...... 38 Riding to 2050, the San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan (2010) and Bike Early Action Program ...... 38 Transportation Demand Management Program, iCommute Commuter Services ...... 39 San Diego Region Intelligent Transportation Systems Strategic Plan (2011) ...... 39 Regional Alternative Fuel Planning ...... 39 Regional Plug-in Electric Vehicle Planning ...... 40 Energy Roadmap Program ...... 40 Sub-Regional Energy Action Collaboratives ...... 41 SANDAG Green Operations Manual ...... 41 TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program and Active Transportation Grant Program ...... 41 Regional Transit-Oriented Development Strategy ...... 42 Regional Collaborations ...... 42 San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative ...... 42 Climate Science Alliance – South Coast ...... 42 Resilient Coastlines Project of Greater San Diego ...... 43 Regional Sea-Level Rise Working Group...... 43 San Diego Regional Energy Partnership ...... 43

3 54

Climate Education Partners ...... 43 Acronyms ...... 44 Additional References ...... 46

4 55

Introduction

In the San Diego region, as in the rest of the world, global climate change contributes to ongoing, escalating impacts on people, the economy, and the environment. Limiting these impacts requires collaboration and transformative action among the economic, governmental, social, and other institutions of society. In recent years, public agencies in California, including in the San Diego region, have been at the forefront of developing approaches to reduce climate-changing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote resiliency to the impacts of climate change while also supporting economic growth, social equity, and environmental protection.

While California alone cannot halt climate change, it is joined in its efforts by several other U.S. states as well as most countries of the world. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international treaty signed by 197 countries that sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to address the challenges posed by climate change. Governor Brown also has spearheaded the Under2 Coalition, a global climate agreement among states, provinces, countries, and cities committing to do their part to limit the increase in global average temperatures to below dangerous levels. Signatories include over 200 jurisdictions from 38 countries across 6 continents, representing more than 1.2 billion people.

The purpose of the Climate Change White Paper is to inform the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan). This white paper updates the version prepared for San Diego Forward: The 2015 Regional Plan (2015 Regional Plan) to include new information that has become available since the adoption of the 2015 Regional Plan, such as the latest science, the new statewide target for 2030, other new state laws and plans, and the status of local climate action plans (CAPs). This white paper also includes updated descriptions of the many San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) climate change plans and programs, as well as collaborative activities underway to address climate change in the San Diego region.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the San Diego Region Periodically, SANDAG completes a comprehensive GHG emissions inventory for the San Diego region. The inventory identifies and quantifies the sources of GHG emissions and allows for monitoring over time. In 2012, emissions totaled approximately 35 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e). As seen in Figure 1, passenger vehicles make up the largest source of GHG emissions in the region, followed by electricity, then natural gas. This inventory will be updated with a 2016 baseline for the 2019 Regional Plan.

5 56

Wastewater Water Supply Agriculture <1% Marine Vessels Off-Road and Conveyance Rail <1% <1% Equipment 1% <1% Motorcycles and Vehicles <1% 3% Wildfire 2% Industrial Aviation Processes 4% and Products 4%

Solid Waste 5% Heavy-Duty Passenger Cars & Trucks Light-Duty and Vehicles Vehicles 5% 37%

Other Fuels/ Cogeneration Thermal 6% Natural Gas End Uses 8%

Electricity 23%

Figure 1: GHG Emissions Inventory for the San Diego Region 20121

Climate Change Impacts in the San Diego Region Even with efforts to reduce GHG emissions, the San Diego region is experiencing ongoing, escalating impacts from climate change. These impacts, summarized in the diagram below, and described in more detail in the “Strategies to Prepare for Climate Change Impacts” section, are far-reaching and will disrupt several parts of the environment. The region’s coastal resources will experience higher sea levels, increased flooding and erosion, and saltwater intrusion; wildfires will become more frequent and increase in severity; local habitat and biodiversity will see shifts in flora and fauna due to temperature changes, as well as a decrease in the region’s more sensitive habitats due to increased extreme weather events and fluctuations in temperature; water management will become increasingly constrained as the demand for water competes with more frequent and intense droughts; and the agricultural sector will also be heavily impacted by drought and increased temperatures. The section entitled “Interrelationships with Other Policy Areas” includes additional information on the connections among climate change, public health, and the economy.

Preparing the region for the effects of climate change requires measures to adapt to these changes and create resilient communities. Adaptation is adjusting in response to climate impacts, while resiliency is the capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous

6 57

event. At the state level, California has developed policy guidance for decision-makers, planning resources for local and regional agencies, and technical tools to assist with climate change adaptation and resilience, as described in more detail in the “Strategies to Prepare for Climate Change Impacts” section.

Public Health •Air quality •Wildfires •Severe weather •Agriculture Water Agriculture changes Management •Infectious disease •Constrained water •Demand for water supplies •Constrained •Crop pests/vectors supplies •Weather changes •Water quality Climate •Stormwater runoff Impacts in the San Diego Biodiversity/ Region Habitat Economics •Forest: insect attack, drought, wildfire •Impacts to infrastructure •Freshwater/vernal Coastal pools: hydrology/ •Property losses ecology Resources •Higher public •Species movement •Sea-level rise health costs •Shrublands: range •Sewage treatment shifts •Species movement •Saltwater intrusion •Ocean acidification •Flooding/erosion

Figure 2: Climate Impacts in the San Diego Region State, Regional, and Local Planning for the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The following sections describe California’s overarching strategy to reduce emissions, how climate change was addressed in the 2015 Regional Plan, and local efforts to prepare and implement climate action plans.

California’s Strategy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions California’s strategy for reducing GHG emissions is shaped by legislation, regulations, and Executive Orders. All Executive Orders, laws, and regulations are listed on the State’s Climate Change Portal.2 Executive Order S-3-05, which was issued by Governor Schwarzenegger in June 2005, calls for state agencies to work toward reducing GHG emissions as follows: by 2010, reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels; by 2020, reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels; and by 2050, reduce GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels. Since then, the legislature has codified the 2020 target (in AB 32) and a midterm 2030 target (in SB 32) for statewide emissions reductions.

7 58

In 2006, Governor Schwarzenegger signed into law Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32), The Global Warming Solutions Act, which codifies the 2020 target in Executive Order S-3-05 and calls for California to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. In 2016, Governor Brown signed into law Senate Bill 32 California Global Warming Solutions Act (Pavley, 2016), which establishes a GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. AB 32 and SB 32 also direct the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop a Scoping Plan that details the strategies for attaining the 2020 and 2030 targets, respectively. The first Scoping Plan was completed in 2008, and was most recently updated in 2017 to reflect the 2030 statewide GHG reduction target. Based on tracking done by CARB, California is on track to meet the 2020 emissions target; however, attaining the 2030 target will require accelerated emissions reductions. Figure 3 displays actual statewide annual emissions to date and California’s 2020 and 2030 reduction targets.

Figure 3: California GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets3 The key GHG reduction measures outlined in Table 1 of the 2017 Scoping Plan include:

• Senate Bill 350 Clean Energy and Pollution Reduction Act (De León, 2015) (SB 350) to reduce GHG emissions in the electricity sector through implementation of a 50 percent Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), doubling of energy savings, and other actions:

o Load-serving entities file plans to achieve GHG emissions reductions planning targets while ensuring reliability and meet the State’s other policy goals cost-effectively

o 50 percent RPS

o Doubling of energy efficiency savings in natural gas and electricity end uses statewide

• Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to transition to cleaner/less-polluting fuels that have a lower carbon footprint:

o At least 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity by 2030

8 59

• Mobile Source Strategy (Cleaner Technology and Fuels Scenario) to reduce GHGs and other pollutants from the transportation sector through transition to zero-emission and low-emission vehicles, cleaner transit systems, and reduction of vehicle miles traveled (VMT):

o 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) including plug-in hybrid electric, battery-electric, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2025; 4.2 million ZEVs by 2030

o Continue ramp-up of GHG stringency for all light-duty vehicles beyond 2025

o Reductions in GHGs from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles via the Phase 2 Medium- and Heavy-Duty GHG Standards

o Innovative Clean Transit: Transition to a suite of innovative clean transit options. Assumed 20 percent of new urban buses purchased beginning in 2018 will be zero-emission buses with the penetration of zero-emission technology ramped up to 100 percent of new bus sales in 2030. Also, new natural gas buses, starting in 2018, and diesel buses, starting in 2020, meet the optional heavy-duty low-oxides of nitrogen (NOx) standard.

o Last-Mile Delivery: New regulation that would result in the use of low-NOx or cleaner engines and the deployment of increasing numbers of zero-emission trucks primarily for class 3-7 last-mile delivery trucks in California. This measure assumes ZEVs comprise 2.5 percent of new Class 3-7 truck sales in local fleets starting in 2020, increasing to 10 percent in 2025.

o Reduction in VMT to be achieved in part by continued implementation of Senate Bill 375 Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act (Steinberg, 2008) (SB 375) and regional Sustainable Communities Strategies; forthcoming implementation of Senate Bill 743 Environmental Quality (Steinberg, 2013); and potential additional VMT-reduction strategies not specified in the Mobile Source Strategy, but included in the document “Potential VMT Reduction Strategies for Discussion” in Appendix C.

• Senate Bill 1383 Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (Lara, 2016) (SB 1383) strategy to reduce highly potent GHGs:

o 40 percent reduction in methane and hydrofluorocarbon emissions below 2013 levels by 2030.

o 50 percent reduction in anthropogenic black carbon emissions below 2013 levels by 2030.

• California Sustainable Freight Action Plan to improve freight efficiency, transition to zero-emission technologies, and increase competitiveness of California’s freight system:

o Improve freight system efficiency by 25 percent by 2030

o Deploy over 100,000 freight vehicles and equipment capable of zero-emission operation and maximize both zero- and near-zero-emission freight vehicles and equipment powered by renewable energy in 2030

9 60

• Post-2020 Cap-and-Trade Program to reduce GHGs across largest GHG emissions sources:

o Continue the existing Cap-and-Trade Program with declining caps to ensure the state’s 2030 target is achieved.

The estimated cumulative reductions associated with each of the 2017 Scoping Plan measures from 2021 to 2030 are displayed in Figure 4. The largest source of GHG reductions is expected to come from the Cap-and-Trade program. The program establishes a declining limit, or “cap,” on approximately 85 percent of total statewide GHG emissions, including electric generating utilities, electricity importers, large industrial facilities, and fuel distributers. The program has been up and running since 2013 and will continue post-2020 pursuant to legislative direction in Assembly Bill 398 California Global Warming Solutions Act (Garcia, 2017). Proceeds from the auctions of allowances under Cap-and-Trade are deposited into the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and provide a significant source of revenue to support GHG-reduction measures.

Figure 4: 2017 Scoping Plan Scenario – Estimated Cumulative Reductions by Measure (2021-2030)4

State Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals for the Passenger Vehicle Sector According to a CARB staff report on proposed updates to the SB 375 GHG targets, the 2017 Scoping Plan addresses emission reductions from the transportation sector as a whole, and recommends strengthening SB 375 targets compared to what would occur under currently adopted Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCSs) as one of a suite of measures to achieve greater GHG reductions.5 In the following discussion, CARB staff describe the roles of SB 375 and State-level VMT-reduction strategies in meeting state GHG reduction goals within the passenger vehicle sector and statewide:

Updated Final CARB Staff Report, Proposed Update to the SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets, February 2018, pp. 14-16: The 2017 Scoping Plan relies on strategies in every single sector that are more aggressive than currently adopted regulations and policies. These include substantially greater increases in sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), greater increases in fuel efficiency standards for gasoline vehicles, continued decarbonization of energy, additional efficiencies in building and industrial energy efficiency, reductions in short lived climate pollutants, continuing the Cap-and-Trade program, and a reduction in growth of statewide VMT.

10 61

Figure 1 illustrates the combined contributions of GHG emission reductions envisioned for the passenger vehicle sector. As the figure shows, by 2035 the State will need 50 percent of new cars sales to be ZEVs, 50 percent of transportation fuels will need to come from renewable sources, and a 7.5 percent reduction from 2035 baseline VMT through passenger vehicle activity efforts such as SB 375 and other State strategies. The GHG emission reduction contribution from VMT is comparatively smaller in share than the GHG emission reductions called for by advances in technology and fuels, but necessary for GHG reductions in other sectors, and also are anticipated to lead to important co-benefits such as improved public health.

The 2017 Scoping Plan recognizes the role that reducing growth in VMT plays in supporting other important public health, equity, economic, and conservation goals. The types of strategies associated with reducing VMT growth also influence where and what types of development are put in place, with implications beyond reducing distances traveled and tailpipe emissions. Development pattern choices also play a role in influencing pollutant exposure; accessibility to jobs and services; future transportation, energy, and water infrastructure demand and costs; as well as conversion of natural and working lands; food security; watershed health; and ecosystems.

Stronger SB 375 GHG reduction targets will enable the State to make significant progress toward the 2017 Scoping Plan goals, but alone will not provide all of the reductions needed. While currently adopted SB 375 plans achieve, in aggregate, nearly an 18 percent reduction in statewide per-capita GHG emissions relative to 2005 by 2035, the full reduction needed to meet our climate goals is on the order of a 25 percent reduction in statewide per-capita GHG emissions by 2035.

Figure 6: Statewide On-Road GHG Emissions

11 62

Bridging the gap will require a combination of increased SB 375 targets and new State and local VMT-reduction actions. As part of the 2017 Scoping Plan, CARB staff and sister State agencies have included the following recommended new State-level strategies to reduce VMT that they are beginning the process to pursue:6

• Developing and expanding funding and financing mechanisms and incentives for infill development and related infrastructure (e.g., low-VMT housing rebate, reduced parking requirements, regional transit-oriented development funds, etc.) and connecting to incentives/support for regional land-conservation strategies (e.g., transfer-development rights, growth boundaries)

• Improving performance measures used to plan and select transportation facilities to ensure that projects help to achieve emission-reduction goals and increase competitiveness of transit and active transportation modes (e.g., via guideline documents, funding programs, or project selection)

• Expanding investments in transit and active transportation, as well as exploring opportunities for increasing shared-mobility transportation options, particularly for automated vehicles

• Developing pricing policies (e.g., based on congestion, road user VMT, low-emission vehicle zones for heavy-duty, and parking)

These State-level strategies to reduce VMT will be expanded upon further through the 2017 Scoping Plan implementation process and CARB’s process this year to prepare a report to the legislature in response to Senate Bill 150 (Lara, 2013). The State agencies will continue to gather more detail on the strategies described here, and will develop subsequent actions through separate public processes. As State agencies move forward, the strategies may change or be adjusted or new strategies may be added.

Regional and Local Planning for Climate Change The 2017 Scoping Plan focuses on the areas where the State can have the greatest impact in reducing GHG emissions; however, it also describes the critical role that regional and local governments play in implementing measures to meet the 2030 GHG reduction target. Regional and local governments each play unique roles in shaping the built environment and reducing GHG emissions. While the 2015 Regional Plan has specific requirements under SB 375 to reduce per-capita passenger vehicle emissions, the 2017 Scoping Plan describes how additional complementary actions are needed at the local and state levels to further reduce VMT and achieve broader statewide GHG reduction goals. As local jurisdictions in the San Diego region prepare CAPs, many of them are considering ways to contribute additional VMT reductions through local actions.

The 2017 Scoping Plan states that “there is a gap between what SB 375 can provide and what is needed to meet the State’s 2030 and 2050 goals.”7 In addition to the state-level VMT-reduction strategies described in the 2017 Scoping Plan’s Appendix C, CARB recommends that “local governments consider policies to reduce VMT to help achieve these reductions, including: land use and community design that reduce VMT; transit-oriented development; street design policies that prioritize transit, biking, and walking; and increasing low-carbon mobility choices, including improved access to viable and affordable public transportation and active transportation

12 63

opportunities.”8 The 2017 Scoping Plan in Appendix B presents a detailed list of potential local actions to help the state achieve its GHG reduction goals.

The next sections describe how climate change was addressed in the 2015 Regional Plan and local climate action planning in the San Diego region.

Climate Change in the 2015 Regional Plan SB 375 is the only statutory GHG-reduction requirement for Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), but SANDAG plays a role in reducing GHG emissions in other ways. In accordance with SB 375, SANDAG develops a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) as an element of the Regional Plan. The SCS, among other strategies and goals, demonstrates how the region will coordinate regional transportation planning, regional housing needs allocation, and local land-use planning to meet the passenger-vehicle GHG-emission targets set by CARB if there is a feasible way to do so. These targets do not include reductions from improved vehicle efficiency and cleaner fuels. The per-capita passenger vehicle GHG targets for the 2015 Regional Plan were reductions of 7 percent by 2020 and 13 percent by 2035, from a 2005 baseline year. The 2015 Regional Plan met and exceeded these targets. CARB is expected to adopt new, higher SB 375 GHG-reduction targets for MPOs, including SANDAG, in 2018, and these will be in effect for the 2019 Regional Plan.

The 2015 Regional Plan included many features designed to promote sustainability and reduce GHG emissions in order to be consistent with the intent and goals of SB 375. These features include:

• Emphasis on investments in transit, Managed Lanes, active transportation, Transportation Demand Management (TDM) and Transportation System Management (TSM) that reduce vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption, GHG emissions, and air pollutant emissions.

• De-emphasis of traditional highway investments

• An SCS, based on the regional growth forecast, that exceeds the SANDAG SB 375 GHG-reduction targets.

The 2015 Regional Plan is a balanced approach that provides many choices for people to get to work, school, or play. It does not represent “business as usual” investments in primarily highway expansion, and includes more investment in transit and active transportation than any previous Regional Transportation Plan (RTP).

Transit expenditures make up approximately 50 percent of the expenditures in the 2015 Regional Plan. There are five new light rail transit lines, complete double-tracking of the Los Angeles – San Diego – San Luis Obispo (LOSSAN) Rail Corridor and SPRINTER rail corridor, new express bus services, and increased frequencies for all transit modes. The 2015 Regional Plan also fully funds Active Transportation, TSM, and TDM programs.

The SCS land use pattern demonstrates that the San Diego region is planning for compact, higher density development located near transit and within the already-urbanized areas of the region as envisioned by SB 375. Much of the San Diego region will remain undeveloped in the future because of the designated park, open space, national forest, and habitat lands. More than 80 percent of new housing will be attached multi-family. The land-use pattern accommodates 79 percent of all housing and 86 percent of all jobs within the portion of the region covered by the Urban Area Transit Strategy, where the greatest investments in public transit are focused. Meanwhile, the 2015

13 64

Regional Plan will maintain more than 55 percent of the region's land area as open space and parkland.

The estimated per-capita GHG reductions of the 2015 Regional Plan allow for investments in some emerging technology and demand-management programs to complement the benefits derived from a multimodal transportation system. These technological and programmatic elements include telework and employer programs, vanpool incentives, traveler information systems, and carsharing. TSM programs are not quantified in the reductions, although, as described in the “Emerging Technologies and Transportation Systems and Demand Management” section, such efficiencies can result in decreases in both fuel consumption and overall air pollutant emissions. SANDAG also is working with its partner MPOs in California and with ARB to identify further strategies to reduce GHG emissions, such as substantially expanded zero-emission vehicle programs.

While some of the projects in the 2019 Regional Plan will be implemented through funding that SANDAG will receive from the federal, state, and local sources, SANDAG also provides planning tools and funding incentives to implement it. The Smart Growth Toolbox contains a set of tools to help the region realize the vision for a sustainable future. Other tools developed by SANDAG include the Smart Growth Concept Map, smart growth design guidelines, smart growth visual simulations, guidelines for integrating TDM into planning processes, parking management tools, guidelines for planning and designing for pedestrians, a smart growth photo library, the Regional Complete Streets Policy, the Regional Transit Oriented Development Strategy, and competitive grant programs that provide incentive funds for planning and capital projects in smart growth areas and for Active Transportation projects. Furthermore, the TransNet Environmental Mitigation program provides funds to protect, preserve, and restore native habitats as offsets to disturbance caused by regional and local transportation projects, as well as additional funding for management and monitoring of existing preserved areas. Descriptions of these tools and programs are available on the SANDAG website and are described later in this white paper.

The 2015 Regional Plan also includes the following actions that support GHG-emissions reductions and climate change adaptation:

• Complete a follow-up study that details ways to reduce GHG emissions by expanding the use of alternative fuels regionwide

• Continue to provide and/or expand incentive programs that support reduction of GHG emissions, protect open space and farmland, and create great places to live, work, and play

• Promote the use of both zero-emission vehicles and alternative fuels and ensure that the region has the infrastructure to support these innovations

• Support the efforts of local jurisdictions to implement their Energy Roadmaps to save energy in their own operations and in their larger communities

• Develop strategies to enhance the region’s ability to adapt to the consequences of climate change, including planning and design strategies to help communities cope with hazardous events such as storms, heat waves, wildfires, or ongoing drought

As part of the approval of the 2015 Regional Plan, the SANDAG Board of Directors also adopted many feasible and enforceable mitigation measures for reducing GHG emissions, many to be

14 65

implemented by SANDAG (both at a plan level and as part of transportation projects developed by SANDAG), and others to be implemented by other agencies.

• GHG-4A: Allocate Competitive Grant Funding to Projects that Reduce GHG Emissions

• GHG-4B: Adopt a Detailed Regional Mobility Hub Implementation Plan to Reduce GHG Emissions

• GHG-4C: Fund Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

• GHG-4D: Adopt a Plan for Transportation Fuels that Reduce GHG Emissions

• GHG-4E: Assist in the Preparation of CAPs and Other Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions

• GHG-4F: Implement Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions from Transportation Projects (SANDAG)

• GHG-4G: Implement Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions from Transportation Projects (Other Transportation Project Sponsors)

• GHG-4H: Implement Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions from Development Projects

• AQ-2A: Implement Construction Best Management Practices for Fugitive Dust

• AQ-4A: Reduce Exposure to Localized Particulate and/or Toxic Air Contaminants Emissions

• AQ-4B: Reduce diesel emissions during construction from off-road equipment.

• AQ-4C: Reduce diesel particulate emissions from on-road vehicles used in construction

• EN-3B Develop Energy Demand Calculations and Reduce Energy Demand

Climate Action Planning in the San Diego Region As of February 2018, almost all of the local jurisdictions in the San Diego region are developing or have adopted a CAP. Table 1 summarizes each jurisdiction’s climate planning efforts. In addition, the Port of San Diego, the San Diego County Water Authority, San Diego Unified School District, and local universities also have developed CAPs.

15 66

Table 1

Local Climate Planning Efforts

Climate Action Plan Jurisdiction Adopted Developing (year) Carlsbad 2015 Chula Vista 2017 Coronado  County of San Diego 2018 (unincorporated) Del Mar 2016 El Cajon  Encinitas 2018 Escondido 2012 Imperial Beach  La Mesa  Lemon Grove  National City 2011 Oceanside  Poway San Diego 2015 San Marcos 2013 Santee  Solana Beach 2017 Vista 2013

Both the 2017 Scoping Plan and the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research’s (OPR’s) General Plan Guidelines recommend jurisdictions prepare CAPs that include strategies to meet locally adapted goals that align with the state’s targets for GHG reduction. While all CAPs set GHG-emissions reduction targets and identify reduction measures to meet those targets, a “qualified” CAP offers streamlining opportunities for future development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) by meeting the requirements of CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5.

Many jurisdictions have set local reduction targets and baseline years and identified GHG reduction measures to help achieve the State’s targets. Many jurisdictions in the region have set targets of 15 percent below a baseline year by 2020 while other jurisdictions with more recently adopted CAPs have set post-2020 (e.g., 2030 or 2035) targets of 40 to 50 percent below a baseline year. Local jurisdictions have used a range of dates between 2005 and the present for their CAP baseline year;

16 67

the baseline year is largely dependent on when the CAP was adopted and the data available at the time the CAP was produced.

In addition, the 2017 Scoping Plan recommends that local plans use statewide targets consistent with statewide emission limits and the Under2 Memorandum of Understanding9 of no more than

six metric tons CO2e per capita by 2030 and more than two metric tons CO2e per capita by 2050, and that local government “emissions inventories and reduction goals should be expressed in mass emissions, per-capita emissions, and service population emissions.” It goes on to explain that local CAPs should be based on “evidence-based local per-capita goals based on local emissions sectors and population sectors” since the statewide per-capita targets are based on all emissions sectors in the state. CARB recommends that the GHG-emissions trajectory within a local CAP “show a downward trend consistent with statewide objectives.” CARB’s recommendations for community-wide goals expand upon the reduction of 15 percent from “current” (2005 to 2008) levels by 2020 as recommended in the 2008 Scoping Plan.

To achieve their locally identified targets, local CAPs account for GHG reductions from State-level strategies, then identify local reduction measures to meet their targets. These measures vary according to the unique circumstances of local agencies, but typically are identified for the following sectors: transportation and land use, electricity, natural gas, solid waste, water, wastewater, and other categories.

In 2016, SANDAG began offering climate-planning services to 16 cities through the Energy Roadmap Program. The climate-planning services include updated GHG-emissions inventories for all cities at regular intervals as well as customized technical assistance from climate-planning consultants and dedicated SANDAG staff at no cost. As a part of the climate-planning services, SANDAG is developing a Regional Framework for Climate Action Planning (Regional Framework). The Regional Framework is a guidance document that identifies best practices for preparing local CAPs and monitoring their implementation over time. The Regional Framework is consistent with State policy and was created with input from local jurisdictions and agencies involved in CAP development. The Regional Framework includes a series of appendices that cover relevant methodologies, data sources, State legislation, local applications, and emerging issues in significant detail.

17 68

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies by Sector

The following sections further describe the State strategy, the role of SANDAG, and the role of local governments in reducing emissions from the following sectors: transportation, land use, electricity, natural gas end use, water, and solid waste. The role of SANDAG is defined by existing programs and policies from adopted plans.

Reducing Emissions from Transportation Sector As illustrated in the regional GHG inventory, the transportation sector, including both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, represents the largest source of GHG emissions (a combined 42% in the San Diego region as of 2012). The 2017 Scoping Plan outlines four goal areas for reducing emissions from the transportation sector:

• Vibrant Communities and Landscapes/VMT Reduction

• Vehicle Technology

• Clean Fuels

• Sustainable Freight

California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Transportation The State’s strategies for reducing transportation emissions include implementation of the Mobile Source Strategy, which includes SB 375 and additional State-level VMT reduction strategies, Advanced Clean Cars program, the LCFS, and the Sustainable Freight Action Plan. Most of the transportation GHG reductions in the 2017 Scoping Plan will come from technologies and low-carbon fuels, and a reduction in the growth of VMT also is needed (2017 Scoping Plan, page 75). As mentioned above, the 2017 Scoping Plan also acknowledges that there is a gap between the reductions that SB 375 can provide and what is needed to meet the State’s 2030 and 2050 goals. Please also see the “California’s Strategy for Reducing GHG Emissions” and “State GHG Reduction Goals for the Passenger Vehicle Sector” sections.

In May 2016, CARB published the 2016 Mobile Source Strategy (Strategy), which outlines an approach for simultaneously meeting air quality standards, achieving GHG-emission reduction targets, decreasing toxics, and reducing petroleum consumption from transportation over the next 15 years. The Strategy, which informs the transportation sector discussions in the 2017 Scoping Plan, provides a coordinated framework to support multiple related planning efforts, including:

• 2017 Scoping Plan

• Sustainable Freight Action Plan

• Short Lived Climate Pollutant Strategy

• State Implementation Plan

• SB 375 Implementation

The Strategy includes a mix of policy tools that vary across four mobile sectors: on-road light-duty, on-road heavy-duty, off-road federal and international sources, and off-road equipment sources.

18 69

The policy tools include a mix of incentives and requirements that aim to increase the deployment of zero- and near-zero-emission vehicles along with necessary infrastructure, increase fuel efficiency and engine performance, increase the use of renewable fuels and electricity, reduce passenger VMT, and advance the use of intelligent transportation systems.

The Strategy includes a scenario of cleaner technologies, low-carbon fuels, vehicle efficiencies, and limited VMT growth that support the transformation needed in the on-road sector to meet California air quality and climate goals. In the light-duty sector, the main assumptions include increasing sales of light-duty ZEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to 100 percent by 2050 and a 15 percent reduction in total light-duty VMT in 2050 compared to baseline 2050 levels. The heavy-duty sector assumptions include low-NOx performance standards (representing 90 percent reduction in overall emissions), efficiency improvements from the Phase 2 GHG standard, a blend of 50 percent biofuels by 2030, and gradual increased use of ZEVs in transit buses and last-mile delivery applications. The roles of local and regional governments under SB 375 and in reducing GHG emissions to achieve the statewide 2030 target are described in the “Regional and Local Planning for Climate Change” section.

The Advanced Clean Cars program works to increase vehicle efficiency by combining the control of GHG emissions and other air pollution requirements into a single package of standards. Under the program, by 2025, 1.5 million ZEVs will be operating in California and 15 percent of new car sales will be ZEVs. In January 2018, Governor Brown issued Executive Order B-48-18, which includes a new target of 5 million ZEVs in California by 2030 and a new eight-year, $2.5 billion initiative to continue clean vehicle rebates and help bring 250,000 vehicle-charging stations and 200 hydrogen fueling stations to California by 2025.

The LCFS calls for a reduction of at least 10 percent of the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020 and 18 percent reduction by 2030. The LCFS program is performance-based and allows fuel providers and regulated parties to choose from a mix of strategies to achieve compliance. Strategies include investing in production of low carbon-intensity (low-CI) fuels, purchasing low-CI fuels for blending, purchasing credits from other regulated parties, and banking credits for use in future years.

In response to Executive Order B-32-15, the Sustainable Freight Action Plan was developed with coordination from several state agencies. The plan describes ways for California to improve freight efficiency, transition to zero-emission technologies, and increase the competitiveness of freight system.

SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Transportation Please see the “Climate Change in the 2015 Regional Plan” section for a discussion of the many strategies in 2015 Regional Plan that support GHG emissions in the transportation sector. SANDAG also supports the State’s strategies for ZEVs and low-carbon fuels in the region. Since 2012, SANDAG has provided a forum for local governments and other regional stakeholders to address barriers to deploying alternative fuel vehicles and siting charging and fueling stations. In 2014, SANDAG completed a regional readiness plan for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) and charging stations.10 This effort was expanded to planning for all alternative fuels, with a regional alternative fuel plan completed in 2016.11 With funding from the California Energy Commission, SANDAG is implementing the readiness plan for EVs by providing technical assistance to property owners and other potential EV-charging station hosts and performing a regional needs assessment for publicly

19 70

available EV charging through a program called “Plug-in SD.” As part of the 2015 Regional Plan, SANDAG also adopted a measure to allocate $30 million for an incentive program for EV-charging infrastructure. The planning for the incentive program is underway and will be provided to the Board of Directors prior to adoption of the 2019 Regional Plan.

Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Transportation Local governments have the ability to influence transportation-related GHG emissions through land use authority, community investments, and municipal operations. In local CAPs, local governments have identified measures to reduce VMT and promote efficient vehicles and alternative fuel use in government operations and throughout the community. Although emissions from government operations make up a small percentage of a jurisdiction’s overall emissions, the local government can help to influence changes in the community by taking steps to reduce internal emissions.

In developing a CAP, local jurisdictions can set local goals for VMT reduction and/or increased biking, walking, and transit mode share. These local goals are attained in part by regional transportation projects, but also by implementing measures beyond the transportation investments identified in the 2015 Regional Plan. Some of these measures may include:

• Implementation of a local active transportation plan

• Local programs to promote and/or incentivize biking, walking, and transit

• Alteration of parking requirements

• Updating of land-use plans to facilitate smart growth and VMT reduction

Local CAPs consider ways to increase the use of ZEVs in the community through investments in EV charging, requiring EV-ready buildings, and/or incentives for installing EV charging at homes and businesses.

Reducing Emissions from Land Use Land use decisions impact nearly all sources of GHG emissions. Smart growth development brings people closer to more destinations and supports low-carbon travel choices (i.e., public transit, carpooling, walking, and biking). Mixed-use, compact developments also result in reduced per-capita demand for electricity, heating, and cooling. There also are co-benefits of land-use and transportation strategies beyond GHG reductions, including preservation of agricultural land, open space, and habitat; improved water quality from reduced development-related pollutant sources; positive health effects; and the reduction of smog-forming pollutants. This section also includes land-use strategies to expand tree planting and other urban greening efforts, which have benefits of carbon sequestration, meaning that trees uptake and store carbon from the atmosphere as they grow.

California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Land Use The 2017 Scoping Plan emphasizes the need for more compact land-use patterns to curb auto trips, minimize energy and water use in the built environment, and maintain natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. CARB also is coordinating with several other state agencies, including the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), the California Department of Food and Agriculture, and the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA), to prepare a Natural and Working Lands Climate Change Implementation Plan (Implementation Plan) in 2018. The Implementation

20 71

Plan will outline a pathway to increase carbon sequestration and avoid emissions, with a goal of

reducing emissions by 15 to 20 MMTCO2e by 2030, as identified in the 2017 Scoping Plan. The California Natural and Working Lands Carbon Model will be used to analyze the GHG impacts in the Implementation Plan.

SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Land Use As described in the “Climate Change in the 2015 Regional Plan” section, the SCS in the 2015 Regional Plan consists of land-use patterns and transportation investments that together achieve the region’s SB 375 GHG-reduction targets. SANDAG also provides incentives to encourage smart growth development and preserve habitat lands. Through the TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program, SANDAG provides grants to member agencies to support planning and capital projects in areas on the Smart Growth Concept Map, which illustrates the location of existing, planned, and potential smart growth areas. In addition, through the TransNet Environmental Mitigation Program (EMP) Land Acquisition Grant Program, over 5,000 acres of property have been acquired and conserved as open space areas in the region. These grant programs help to incentivize compact development and maintenance of open space, resulting in reduced GHG emissions.

Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Land Use Local governments have the authority to decide how and where land is developed to accommodate population and economic growth. Figure 7 below shows the region’s projected housing and job growth based upon local general plans in 1999 (left) and 2013 (right). Over 14 years, local plans have been updated to concentrate growth within the urbanized areas of the region, closer to existing and planned transportation infrastructure, while increasing land area dedicated to open space and habitat preservation. These land-use changes help implement the vision and goals set in the 2015 Regional Plan and are reflected in the SANDAG SCS, collectively moving the region toward more compact development, more open-space preservation, and reduced GHG emissions.

Figure 7: Comparison of Housing and Job Growth Projected in 1999 vs. 201312

In adopted local CAPs, several jurisdictions have highlighted land use-related strategies to reduce GHG emissions, many of which overlap with strategies to reduce VMT described in the previous section. Examples of strategies from adopted CAPs include smart growth development, transit-

21 72

oriented development, measures to support transit, biking, walking, and other mobility options to driving alone, increasing the urban tree canopy, and preserving natural and working lands.

Reducing Emissions from Electricity Electricity use is responsible for approximately 23 percent of the San Diego region’s GHG emissions as of 2012. Even prior to climate change policy, California has long been a leader in improving building energy efficiency and promoting the use of renewable energy sources. California’s per-capita energy consumption is among the lowest in the country and has remained relatively constant since 1974;13 this has been achieved through building codes and appliance standards, incentive programs, design and installation training, and public outreach. In 1996, the State began incentivizing customer-side renewable energy technologies, and in 2002 it established the first Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) for the investor-owned utilities (IOUs)14. In order to achieve energy and climate goals, Californians at all levels will need to play a part. The key strategies to reduce GHG emissions from electricity are consistent with the State’s loading order, and include:

• Conservation and energy efficiency in new and existing buildings

• Low carbon distributed generation

• Large-scale renewable energy sources

California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Electricity The State’s strategy to reduce electricity-related GHG emissions involves the coordination of several State agencies including the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), the California Energy Commission (CEC), and CARB. The high-level goals to reduce GHGs in electricity are to achieve the GHG-reduction planning targets to be set by the State for all load-serving entities, reduce fossil fuel use, and reduce energy demand. SB 350 established specific requirements related to these goals, including:

• Establish GHG-reduction planning targets for the electricity sector and ensure meaningful reductions through Integrated Resource Planning

• Increase RPS to 50 percent of retail sales by 2030

• Establish annual targets for statewide energy efficiency savings and demand reduction that will achieve a cumulative doubling of statewide energy efficiency savings by 2030

The State’s IOUs, regulated by the CPUC, implement energy efficiency programs that target both residential and non-residential sectors. In addition to the utility programs, CEC has continually updated building and appliance standards on a roughly three-year cycle. SB 350 requires CEC and CPUC to establish annual targets to reach the energy efficiency goal. In response to SB 350, CEC updated the Existing Building Energy Efficiency (EBEE) Action Plan in December 2016. The EEBE Action Plan summarizes legislation related to energy efficiency in existing buildings and describes strategies to address the state goals and requirements.

California’s renewable energy activities have targeted both small-scale, distributed generation as well as larger, utility-scale renewable generation. Expansion of small-scale distributed generation, including rooftop solar photovoltaic, fuel cells, gas turbines, and advanced energy storage, has been driven primarily by incentive programs. Programs include California Solar Initiative, New Solar Homes

22 73

Partnership, Self-Generation Incentive Program, Net Energy Metering, and federal tax credits. Governor Brown set a goal for 12,000 megawatts (MW)15 of distributed renewable generation by 2020; as of November 2017, 10,520 MW of distributed renewable generation capacity was operating or installed, with an additional 440 MW pending.16 The RPS establishes increasing renewable energy procurement targets for California utilities with current targets set at 33 percent by 2020 and 50 percent by 2030. The utilities now are collectively at 30 percent renewable, and are on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 targets.

The CPUC and CEC acknowledges that California’s electric sector is undergoing unprecedented change due to growth in rooftop solar, Community Choice Aggregation (CCA), and direct access providers, with estimates that potentially more than 85 percent of retail load will be served by sources other than the IOUs by the mid-2020s. In response, the CPUC formed the California Customer Choice Project to examine the issues and produce a report evaluating regulatory framework options in 2018.

SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Electricity While state agencies have significant authority over electricity programs, SANDAG focuses on opportunities that SANDAG and its member agencies could take advantage of to influence electricity savings and GHG reductions in the region. SANDAG does this through coordinated planning with a variety of stakeholders through the Regional Energy Working Group and provision of resources to member agencies through a Local Government Partnership (LGP) with San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E). The SANDAG Regional Energy Strategy (RES) outlines several goals that support the State’s efforts to reduce electricity-related GHG emissions while considering other factors such as cost effectiveness and impacts to the power grid. Three of the six Priority Early Actions from the RES are related to electricity:

• Pursue a comprehensive building retrofit program to improve efficiency and install renewable energy systems

• Create financing programs to pay for projects and improvements that save energy

• Utilize the SANDAG-SDG&E LGP to help local governments identify opportunities and implement energy savings at government facilities and throughout their communities

The SANDAG LGP, the Energy Roadmap Program, is one component of SDG&E’s portfolio of energy efficiency programs. Through the Energy Roadmap Program, SANDAG prepared custom energy management plans for the 16 member agencies that do not have an LGP. As the Energy Roadmaps were completed for the local jurisdictions in the region, the demand to implement the Roadmaps and to assist in the development and implementation of CAPs increased. In 2016, SANDAG and SDG&E expanded the Energy Roadmap Program into two service areas: energy engineering and climate planning.

Energy engineering services include:

• Energy audits of municipal facilities

• Project management support for energy efficiency retrofits

• Technical support and procurement assistance

23 74

• Training and recognition

• Project analysis and recommendations and/or feasibility studies

• Performance monitoring

Climate planning services include:

• GHG inventories and projections

• Monitoring reports

• CAP development

• CAP implementation assistance

• Reduction measure calculations and analyses

• Benefit-cost analysis

• Implementation cost assessments

• CEQA assistance

• Trainings

Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Electricity Local CAPs recognize the role that energy efficiency and renewable energy play in reaching GHG reduction goals. The EBEE Action Plan includes a specific strategy related to Local Government Leadership and introduces the CEC’s Local Government Challenge program that would provide funding for energy efficiency programs that advance goals in adopted climate or energy action plans. ECEE Action Plan describes other programs and opportunities for local governments to demonstrate leadership, including LGPs, the Cool California City Challenge, voluntary reach standards, building energy saving ordinances, and climate action planning.

The EBEE Action Plan also describes ways that local governments are partners in meeting the State’s goals in areas such as:

• Benchmarking and reporting

• Building efficiency standards for existing buildings

• Permitting compliance

• Purchasing and procurement power

• Engagement with the real estate industry

• Financing of energy efficiency upgrades

In the San Diego region, the following agencies have an LGP with SDG&E: the Cities of San Diego and Chula Vista, the County of San Diego, the Port of San Diego, and SANDAG (offering services to

24 75

non-LGP member agencies). Through their LGPs, public agencies retrofit their facilities, facilitate green business networks, train government staff on energy concepts and building code updates, develop electricity components of CAPs, and participate in regional collaborative programs.

Some CAPs have set a goal for 100 percent renewable electricity to be achieved through a partnership with SDG&E, CCA, or another similar program. CCA, also known as Community Choice Energy was authorized under Assembly Bill 117 (Migden, 2002) and allows local governments to offer electricity procurement service to customers within their jurisdictional boundaries. In communities with CCA, the incumbent utility continues its role with transmission and distribution, metering, and billing for customers; the CCA only is involved in the electrical generation decision-making. Across the state, there currently are nine operational CCAs with several more cities and counties exploring and/or pursuing CCA. In the San Diego region, the City of Solana Beach completed a CCA technical study and is moving forward with program development and launch. Other jurisdictions exploring CCA include the Cities of Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Oceanside, and San Diego.

Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Use Natural gas end uses account for 8 percent of GHG emissions in the San Diego region, the third largest source after transportation and electricity. These emissions primarily come from natural gas combustion for hot water, space heating, cooling, cooking, and other uses in residential and commercial buildings. GHG emissions associated with power generation from natural gas power plants are accounted for in the electricity sector data.

California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses The 2017 Scoping Plan emphasizes that GHG reduction strategies in the natural gas sector should focus on efficiency, reducing leakage from wells and pipelines, transitioning to cleaner heating fuels, and studying the potential for renewable gas fuel switching. In particular, in order to achieve the goals for zero net energy buildings, transitioning to renewable gas, solar thermal, and electrification of end uses in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors will be necessary.

Combined heat and power (CHP), or cogeneration, is another state priority for reducing GHG emissions and using natural gas as efficiently as possible. CHP systems, which generate on-site electricity and useful heat in a single system, typically are used in industrial, commercial, and institutional applications where both electricity and steam are required. Governor Brown set a goal for 6,500 MW of additional CHP capacity by 2030 in the State’s Clean Energy Jobs Plan.

SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses The RES has a goal related to efficiency of natural gas power plants; however, the goal currently does not address natural gas end uses. In the 2014 technical update of the RES, one of the recommendations is to broaden the natural gas goal to address end-user energy efficiency and other pertinent issues. Through the Energy Roadmap Program, SANDAG works with local governments to identify strategies to reduce natural gas use in their own facilities and in the community.

Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Natural Gas End Uses For reducing emissions from natural gas end-uses, strategies are similar to those described above for electricity efficiency. Measures from local CAPs include revising building codes to require energy

25 76

audits and/or retrofits, offering financing and incentive programs, increasing use of solar hot water heating, and switching various natural gas end uses to electricity.

Reducing Emissions from Water Sector Emissions generated from water use are primarily accounted for in the electricity and natural gas sectors of the GHG inventory resulting from electricity used for transport, distribution, treatment, and pumping of water, and natural gas used for heating water. One percent of the region’s overall emissions come from emissions associated with the conveyance of water from outside sources to the San Diego region. Because of the close relationship between energy and water, strategies that save water generally save energy as well. This is especially true for the San Diego region since most of the region’s water is imported from either the Colorado River or from northern California via the State Water Project; both sources require large amounts of energy to transport the water across long distances.

California’s Strategy for Reducing Emissions from Water Sector The State’s overall goal is to promote efficient use of water and use cleaner energy sources to move and treat water. The 2017 Scoping Plan recognizes that water conservation is critical to making the State’s water supply more reliable and drought-resistant, and encourages efficient use and reuse to meet future water demands while adapting to climate change impacts. California’s 2009 Water Conservation Act (Senate Bill x7-7) set a goal to reduce per capita water use by 20 percent by 2020; Executive Order B-37-16 calls for new water-use targets to increase water conservation statewide. Senate Bill 555 (Wolk, 2015) sets performance standards for water loss and minimizes water system leaks. The State also has set goals for increasing recycled water and stormwater usage, which have been supported by over $1.15 billion in infrastructure grant and loan programs. Additional investments from the State have supported regional collaborative efforts to develop water-management plans, diversify regional water portfolios, and increase self-reliance. The State also recognizes that efforts to conserve water are critical for both reducing GHG emissions and building resilience to impacts of climate change, such as high temperatures and severe drought. Per Senate Bill 1425, the GHG emissions that result from the transport and use of water will be tracked and registered by CalEPA.

SANDAG Role in Reducing Emissions from Water Sector The San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) is the agency responsible for ensuring reliable supplies of water to the San Diego region. SANDAG coordinates with SDCWA to ensure consistency among the various regional planning efforts. Through the Energy Roadmap Program, SANDAG also provides resources to local governments on the water-energy nexus and ways to save water and energy, including incorporating water conservation measures into local CAPs. The RES has a goal to reduce water-related energy use, and the SDCWA has participated in discussions on the topic at Regional Energy Working Group meetings. In addition, the San Diego region has an Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) plan which outlines how the region will develop long-term water supply reliability, improve water quality, and protect natural resources. SANDAG is a member of the IRWM Regional Advisory Committee, which plays a critical role in shaping and developing key elements of the IRWM plan.

Local Government Role in Reducing Emissions from Water Sector Local governments can leverage their authority and encourage residents and businesses to conserve water by adopting building codes and landscape ordinances with increased water efficiency,

26 77

coordinating with the local water district and/or SDCWA on programs and incentives available to residents and businesses, and demonstrating leadership by saving water in municipal facilities. Some jurisdictions already require residents to update water fixtures to low-flow models at point of sale or during building renovations.

Reducing Emissions from Solid Waste Solid waste contributes five percent to the San Diego region’s total GHG emissions. This figure includes methane emissions at landfills and wastewater treatment. The State has a goal (set by Assembly Bill 341 in 2011) for diverting 75 percent of waste from landfills (through recycling, composting, or source reduction) by the year 2020 and capturing methane from landfills to further reduce GHG emissions. Assembly Bill 1826, passed in 2014, requires businesses that generate a specific amount of organic waste per week to arrange for recycling services for that waste, according to a tiered implementation schedule; in 2016, local governments were required to implement an organic waste recycling program to divert organic waste generated by businesses and multi-family residential dwellings. SB 1383 of 2016 requires methane emissions at landfills to be reduced by reducing landfill disposal of organic waste 75 percent below 2014 levels by 2025.

The role that SANDAG plays in waste management is limited, as it is not responsible for any landfills in the region. In keeping with State waste reduction goals, SANDAG has established internal measures to significantly lessen the amount of paper printed for internal and external meetings and works with the building owner to implement a comprehensive recycling program. Local governments can adopt codes and standards that increase construction waste diversion, recycling, zero-waste or green-waste programs, and composting. Many local governments have contracted waste services for their jurisdiction and can work with the waste service provider on strategies to reduce GHG emissions. Local governments that operate landfills can work to use captured methane for cogeneration or other applications.

27 78

Strategies to Prepare for Climate Change Impacts

Even with the efforts to reduce GHG emissions described in the previous sections, the current levels of GHGs in the atmosphere already have resulted in changes to the climate and will continue to do so. California recognizes the need to prepare communities for the effects of climate change by identifying ways to adapt or change in response to climate impacts, especially those already occurring, and make communities resilient. The State is a leader in providing guidance for identifying vulnerabilities and addressing the major impacts of climate change at the state, regional, and local level. The sections below describe impacts to the San Diego region based on the latest science, California’s climate adaptation planning activities, SANDAG efforts to prepare for climate change, and the ways local governments are considering adaptation in their planning efforts.

Climate Change Impacts to the San Diego Region The San Diego region is already experiencing impacts of climate change, including changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, extended wildfire season, and extreme heat events. The table below summarizes the expected impacts of climate change in the San Diego region by 2050, as described in “San Diego, 2050 is Calling: How Will We Answer?”, a 2015 report from Climate Education Partners, and “Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science,” published by the Ocean Protection Council in 2017.

Expected Climate Impacts to the San Diego Region by 2050

Temperature +4.8˚F in annual average temperature

Precipitation 16 percent fewer rainy days, and 8 percent more rainfall during the biggest rainstorms

Water Resources 12 percent decrease in the runoff and streamflow due to less snowpack and greater evaporation

Sea-Level Rise 0.7 to 1.2 feet of sea-level rise17

Wildfires Longer and less predictable fire season, larger and more catastrophic fires, and higher number of poor air quality days as a result

Habitat Threats to coastlines and beaches, wetlands, and unique plants and animals

Public Health Seven times as many days of extreme heat per year

California Climate Adaptation Planning In 2008, Governor Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-13-08 which directed the CNRA, in coordination with other state agencies, to complete the first California Sea-Level Rise Assessment Report, develop a state Climate Adaptation Strategy, and coordinate with the OPR to provide land-use planning guidance related to sea-level rise and other climate change impacts. The 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy was the result of a coordinated effort among several state agencies and used the best available science to describe the impacts, risks, and strategies for climate adaptation.

28 79

In 2014, the CNRA released an update to the 2009 strategy called “Safeguarding California: Reducing Climate Risk.” In 2018, CNRA released an update of Safeguarding California that included a public review process.18 The 2018 update focuses on the following ten sectors:

• Emergency Management

• Energy

• Land Use and Community Development

• Public Health

• Transportation

• Agriculture

• Biodiversity and Habitat

• Forests

• Ocean and Coasts

• Water

In addition to CNRA, other State agencies have prepared guidance documents, including the California Adaptation Planning Guide (2012), for considering climate change adaptation in planning and decision making at the local and regional level. The following sections describe the best practices identified by the State for climate adaptation with regards to ocean and coastal resources, extreme heat, wildfire, biodiversity/habitat, and water management.

Senate Bill 246 (Wieckowski, 2015) established the Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Program (ICARP). ICARP is housed within OPR and allows for coordination on state, regional, and local adaptation efforts, reporting to a Technical Advisory Council.

To assist with understanding the statewide impacts and vulnerabilities of climate change, CNRA, in collaboration with the OPR and the Climate Action Team Research Working Group, is developing the Fourth Climate Change Assessment (Assessment). The Assessment will address California-specific policy questions related to energy (e.g., grid vulnerability and extreme heat) and natural resources (e.g., natural infrastructure options for sea-level rise adaptation) and will be completed in 2018. Additionally, the CNRA is coordinating a series of regional reports, including one focused on the San Diego region, for inclusion in the Assessment.

Ocean and Coastal Resources The Ocean Protection Council is scheduled to adopt the State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance: 2018 Update at their March 14, 2018, meeting. This guidance provides a science-based methodology for state and local governments to analyze and assess risks associated with sea-level rise and incorporate sea-level rise into their planning, permitting, and investment decisions. The guidance is based on the findings from “Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science,” authored by the California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group, which includes the

29 80

following sea-level rise projections for the San Diego region based on data collected at the La Jolla tide gauge.19

• 2030: 0.4 to 0.6 feet (4.8 to 7.2 inches)

• 2050: 0.7 to 1.2 feet (8.4 to 14.4 inches)

• 2100: 1.1 to 3.6 feet (13.2 to 43.2 inches)

In coordination with the other state adaptation strategies, the California Coastal Commission (CCC) adopted Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance in August 2015, which recommends steps for addressing sea-level rise in CCC planning and regulatory actions. The Policy Guidance describes the best available science and provides step-by-step guidance on how to address sea-level rise in new and updated Local Coastal Programs and Coastal Development Permits, which are the fundamental land-use planning and regulatory governing mechanisms in the coastal zone. In addition, the CCC released Draft Residential Adaptation Policy Guidance in 2017, which builds on the CCC’s 2015 Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance and provides a more in-depth discussion of sea-level rise adaptation policies specifically related to residential development, as well as sample policy language that jurisdictions could modify for use in different community and geologic contexts.

Extreme Heat Most of the research on climate change and extreme heat for California has come from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at University of California, San Diego. Currently, San Diego experiences an average of 2 extreme heat days per year. Projections for the San Diego region include annual temperature increases of up to five degrees and up to 15 extreme heat days by 2050. These heat events will have considerable health risks to the population. In order to prepare and safeguard the community for extreme heat events, the CA Adaptation Planning Guide (2012) offers the following recommendations:

• Incorporate cooling strategies for indoor and outdoor environments into building design, including porous materials and green infrastructure

• Consider potential heat health risks posed by climate change in state and local hazard mitigation plans, improve heat alerts, improve community resiliency (ability to withstand climate impacts), particularly in vulnerable communities, and protect the energy grid

• Increase preparedness of the health care system and protect workers at risk of extreme heat

Wildfire Southern California already experiences wildfire, and changes to the frequency and severity will depend on factors including shifts in vegetation, Santa Ana wind behavior, temperature increases, and decreased moisture due to longer periods of drought.20 The CA Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009) recommends firefighting agencies include climate change impact information in fire program planning. The Fourth Climate Change Assessment (2015) and Safeguarding California Plan (2018) include recommendations for emergency management as it relates to wildfires. Enhanced wildfire risk from climate change likely will increase public health and safety risks, property damage, fire suppression and emergency response costs, and impacts to air quality, water quality, and vegetation/habitat.

30 81

Biodiversity/Habitat Impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise, loss of wetlands, wildfire, warmer temperatures, and drought can dramatically alter terrestrial and freshwater aquatic habitats and the species that depend on them. The California Department of Fish and Wildlife offers planning resources for minimizing negative effects of climate change on the state’s fish, wildlife, and habitat through its Climate Science Program, and the CA Adaptation Planning Guide identifies strategies for addressing climate impacts on biodiversity and habitat and recommends local agencies work with their communities to:

• Identify and protect locations where native species may shift or lose habitat

• Collaborate with agencies managing public lands to identify, develop, or maintain corridors and linkages between undeveloped areas

• Use purchase of development rights or conservation easements to protect vulnerable habitats

The Safeguarding California Plan (2018) builds on these recommendations by encouraging the State to continue incorporating climate considerations into investment decision-making as it relates to biodiversity, and also to provide educational opportunities to public agency staff regarding climate impacts and adaptation choices for various ecosystems. The State Wildlife Action Plan is a plan for conserving the state’s fish and wildlife and their habitats that, in part, addresses climate change.21

Water Management Climate impacts on water management include altered timing and amount of precipitation as well as increased temperatures that influence the availability of water supply. A number of State resources are available regarding risk and exposure from a changing climate on water resources including the CA Adaptation Strategy (2009), the Safeguarding California Plan (2018), the CA Water Plan update (2017 draft), and the CA Water Action Plan (2016 update). The CA Adaptation Planning Guide describes strategies for limiting community exposure to threats, such as flooding or landslides, as well as measures to reduce local water use in response to water supply limits from reduced snowpack, reduced precipitation, or drought. The Guide recommends that local jurisdictions update General Plan safety elements and local hazard mitigation plans to reduce potential losses of life and property from flooding and landslide risk. Senate Bill 379 (Jackson, 2015) (SB 379) requires climate adaptation and resiliency strategies in General Plan Safety Elements. Strategies to conserve water work as both mitigation and adaptation strategies and include implementing a recycled water program, using pricing to reduce consumption demand, and restoring natural groundwater supplies for water storage.

SANDAG Adaptation Planning Efforts The 2015 Regional Plan recognizes that the region is and will continue to be affected by the impacts of climate change and identifies the following action to support implementation:

• Develop strategies to enhance our region’s ability to adapt to the consequences of climate change, including planning and design strategies to help communities cope with hazardous events such as storms, heat waves, wildfires, or ongoing drought

Considering Climate Change Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure SANDAG has begun to consider impacts of climate change as projects are designed, built, and maintained, recognizing the importance of protecting infrastructure investments. To inform the

31 82

North Coast Corridor Program, SANDAG and Caltrans commissioned the San Diego Region Coastal Sea Level Rise Analysis Report.22 The Report describes future scenarios for sea-level rise along the region’s coastline based on the latest and most relevant scientific reports and guidance, offers design water level guidance for local projects, an adaptive management strategy, and general conclusions and recommendations. In December 2017, SANDAG was awarded funding through a Caltrans adaptation planning grant to create a sea-level rise adaptation guidance document for regional transportation facilities. The project will build on the work already being conducted at the local level to assess how sea-level rise will impact the region’s transportation network and how adaptation measures can be utilized to mitigate these impacts.

In January 2017, the California Transportation Commission adopted the 2017 RTP Guidelines for MPOs. A section of the RTP Guidelines focuses on adaptation of the regional transportation system to climate change. This section highlights resources for MPOs and states that MPOs “should begin to address climate change adaptation in their long-range transportation plans in collaboration with State agencies, as transportation infrastructure projects that do not consider the impacts of climate may not be eligible to receive state funds.”

Shoreline Preservation Recognizing the need for regional coordination to address beach erosion issues along the coastline, SANDAG facilitates the regional shoreline monitoring program which measures the changes in beach width over time, documents the benefits of sand-replenishment projects, and helps to improve the design and effectiveness of beach fills. The Shoreline Preservation Working Group helps to inform SANDAG on issues related to the implementation of the Shoreline Preservation Strategy and sea-level rise adaptation measures such as beach replenishment opportunities. Beach replenishment is just one of the adaptation strategies noted in the CCC Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance for addressing impacts of sea-level rise on shorelines.

Habitat Conservation The TransNet EMP funds habitat-related environmental mitigation activities required to implement projects from the RTP including purchasing, conserving, and restoring native habitats as offsets to disturbances caused by transportation projects. The EMP also is helping to fund research and regional coordination on ways to build resiliency among species and habitats. The San Diego Management and Monitoring Program completed the Management Strategic Plan for Conserved Lands in Western San Diego County (MSP) in 2013, providing a comprehensive approach for management of multiple plant and animal species. A component of the MSP addresses regional threat and stressor management, including fire, invasive species, urban edge, habitat fragmentation, human use of preserves, nitrogen deposition, and cumulative stressors. Many of these threats and stressors are either directly or indirectly related to climate change, and the MSP offers goals and objectives for building resiliency to these effects of climate change.

Local Government Role in Adaptation Planning Local governments play a key role in assessing vulnerabilities to climate change in their communities and identifying and implementing strategies to prepare communities for these impacts. While most CAPs are focused on strategies to reduce GHG emissions, some local governments are recognizing that preparing for inevitable impacts of climate change is equally important and have started to consider how adaptation measures may mitigate future impacts from climate change. Strategies included in

32 83

CAPs related to adaptation include reducing urban heat island impacts through planting shade trees, and identifying and offering cool zones to prepare for extreme heat events.

In addition to the adaptation strategies included in CAPs, several local governments are addressing climate change adaptation through vulnerability assessments and/or updates to their Local Coastal Programs (LCPs). These documents often take a “triggered” approach, outlining implementation phases for policies, regulations, and projects that would come into effect after being “triggered” by specific sea-level rise and weather events.

Strategies included in LCPs and other similar adaptation plans include (but are not limited to):

• Beach and dune nourishment

• Sea wall and revetment improvements

• Sand retention measures

• Reservoir management

• Sensitive habitat expansion/restoration

• Regulations to raise or remove structures or alter building setbacks

Adaptation strategies can also be incorporated into other planning-level documents, including General Plans and hazard mitigation plans. SB 379 requires jurisdictions to begin to include climate adaptation and resiliency strategies within their General Plan Safety Element. This includes updated goals and policies per a vulnerability assessment and identifying climate risks posed to the local jurisdiction. OPR’s 2017 General Plan Guidelines provide detailed guidance on how to revise General Plans to integrate adaptation planning under SB 379.

33 84

Interrelationships to Other Policy Areas

Climate change is related to several other policy areas of the 2019 Regional Plan, and these interrelationships offer co-benefits—where strategies to address climate change also benefit other policy goals—however, there are some areas where strategies to address climate change could conflict with other policy goals. The following sections describe how climate change is interrelated with economics, public health, and social equity considerations.

Economics and Climate Change Taking steps to mitigate climate change can assist with many of the other objectives in the 2019 Regional Plan and can result in substantial economic benefits. For example, changes in land-use regulations, zoning, and transportation infrastructure intended to reduce transportation GHG emissions can create denser, mixed-use, multimodal communities that can serve the growing populations of younger professionals, singles, and seniors. These changes also can lead to better health outcomes and easier access to schools, jobs, and recreation, thereby increasing economic opportunities for those with limited resources. Efforts to improve energy and water efficiency can have substantial positive benefits to the San Diego economy by saving money and stimulating job creation in the energy contractor and engineering fields, since the improvements must be installed and maintained by a local workforce. Benefits to job growth also come from the “cleantech” sector, which produces products and services related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transportation, and smart grid. In the San Diego region, roughly 7,300 jobs with an average wage of $87,000 are within the “cleantech” sector.23

Businesses are taking steps to reduce their own GHG emissions while saving money and increasing competitiveness. Businesses that are becoming more energy efficient are seeing savings in energy costs, reduced maintenance costs, and reduced exposure to risk from volatile energy process. The 2017 Scoping Plan states that California produces 55 percent more economic value for every unit of electricity used compared to the rest of the country. As renewable energy technologies continue to decline in price, they become more cost-competitive to sources of fossil fuels, and these avoided energy costs are pumped back into the economy elsewhere.

Assessing and preparing for vulnerabilities of drought and severe weather now can have substantial economic benefits in the future. Climate change has the potential to present substantial costs to the San Diego region, from severe impacts of sea-level rise and increased storm activity on the region’s oceanfront to the impact on energy-needs, agricultural disruption, and public health. There is considerable uncertainty as to the timing and severity of these impacts, and to our ability to avoid them, mitigate them, and/or adapt to them should they occur to any substantial degree. Technological and engineering solutions of varying cost and effectiveness could mitigate many of the effects, but it is likely that behavioral changes may be required as well. To begin analyzing the cost effectiveness of various coastal adaptation strategies, the Resilient Coastlines Project of Greater San Diego24 partnered with Nexus Planning to road-test a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cost-benefit evaluation tool for sea-level rise scenarios at the local level. Weighing the varying costs, benefits, and economic impacts of coastal resilience strategies may help inform local decision-making and justify early and cost-effective investments to protect coastal communities from future sea-level rise and storm impacts.

34 85

Public Health, Social Equity, and Climate Change Public health, social equity, and climate change are policy areas that are closely connected. Goals and objectives for creating a healthy community and improving quality of life for all residents closely align with those for addressing climate change. Many key strategies for reducing GHG emissions also can improve health and have the potential to increase quality of life for all people regardless of age, gender, race, color, national origin, income, or physical agility. The 2017 Scoping Plan quantifies the health benefits in 2030 from the plan, including 3,300 avoided premature deaths, $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion in avoided health impacts, and $1.9 billion to $11.2 billion of avoided damages based on the social cost of carbon. Examples of these strategies and co-benefits are summarized in the following table.

Greenhouse Gas-Reduction Strategies and Potential Co-Benefits Strategy to Reduce Potential Health/Social Equity Co-Benefits25 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduce vehicle miles traveled • Reduce air pollution • Increase physical activity • Reduce chronic disease such as asthma and heart disease • Improve mental health • Improve access to low-cost alternative transportation options Increase fuel efficiency and use of • Reduce air pollution cleaner fuels in vehicles Reduce emissions through • Increase physical activity land-use changes such as more • Reduce chronic disease compact growth • Increase local access to essential services such as affordable housing, jobs, and amenities • Enhance safety for biking and walking with reduced vehicle speeds and reduced collisions Reduce residential building • Reduce household energy costs (especially beneficial for energy and water use low-income households) • Promote healthy homes • Create local green jobs • Promote cooler communities through shade trees and cool pavements Urban greening • Reduce temperature and urban heat island health effects • Reduce air pollution • Reduce noise • Enhance safety Biodiversity conservation • Promote ecosystem services (clean air and water) • Enhance access to open space and recreation

35 86

While there are many co-benefits among strategies that reduce GHG emissions, improve public health, and address social equity, there are some important considerations that must be made in order to avoid negative impacts on public health and social equity:

• Use of zero-emission or fuel-efficient vehicles reduces GHG emissions, but has no change on sedentary lifestyles that contribute to chronic disease and does not address the needs of the populations that do not drive or cannot afford to own and operate a vehicle

• Increasing density must be coupled with addressing green space and tree canopy needs in order to avoid the unintended consequence of increasing urban heat island effects, as well as increased housing costs and gentrification of existing communities

• Implementation of building efficiency standards must also consider adequate ventilation and other components of healthy housing

• Increasing renewable energy sources for electricity must also consider impacts to electricity costs, particularly on low-income residents

Impacts to public health from climate change include increased heat-related illnesses; increased asthma, allergies, and other cardiovascular and respiratory diseases due to poor air quality; disruption in food and water supply due to drought and severe weather; and population displacement due to wildfire or sea-level rise. Impacts from climate change will not affect all communities in the same way; the health impacts of climate change may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations including children, the elderly, people with chronic illness, low-income populations, and those unable to afford food or fuels for cooling and transportation. Working to create healthy communities builds a foundation for resiliency to climate impacts that benefits all segments of the population, including vulnerable populations.

Auction proceeds from CARB’s Cap-and-Trade program will help to benefit disadvantaged communities. Senate Bill 535 (De León, 2012) requires that CARB identify disadvantaged communities based on geographic, socioeconomic, public health, and environmental hazard criteria, and that at least 25 percent of auction proceeds be allocated to projects that benefit these communities. Additionally, at least 10 percent of the proceeds must be allocated to projects located in the disadvantaged communities. Assembly Bill 1550 (2016) increased the percent of funds from 10 percent to 25 percent and added a focus on investments in low-income communities.

Emerging Technologies Technology adoption has rapidly increased over the last several decades and influences nearly every aspect of daily life. Technological advancements have the potential to dramatically influence GHG emissions from the transportation and electricity sectors in particular. California depends on the transition to clean energy and clean transportation technologies to meet the statewide GHG-reduction goals for the coming decades. Planning and policy interventions are critical to ensuring technology is supportive and not detrimental to reducing GHG emissions.

In the electricity sector, technology influences the energy-related behavior of individuals, facilities, and the design of the grid itself. Costs of clean power sources continue to decline more quickly than previously predicted, which increases access to these technologies. In addition, technologies such as energy storage, smart inverters, and renewable-fueled fuel cells help to balance the variability of

36 87

renewable energy production and are similarly declining in cost and penetrating the market very quickly.

The following table describes the key mobility trends and considerations related to transportation-sector GHG emissions; these are more fully described in the Emerging Technologies White Paper.

Key Mobility Trends and Greenhouse Gas-Related Considerations Greenhouse Gas-Related Key Mobility Trends Description Considerations

Mobility as a Service • On-demand rideshare • Decreased vehicle ownership • Bikeshare • Shared mobility trips replace single-occupant trips and • Carshare transit trips • Public transit • VMT impacts are unclear • Microtransit

Vehicle Technologies • ZEVs • AVs could increase VMT and urban sprawl without policy • Autonomous vehicles (AVs) intervention • Connected vehicles • Automakers intend to produce electric AVs • Roads may accommodate more vehicles

Smart Cities and Transportation • Transportation System • Collection and distribution Systems Management and of data Operations • Integration of energy, transportation, and other systems

37 88

SANDAG Plans and Programs and Collaborative Regional Activities to Address Climate Change

There are many efforts underway in the San Diego region that are planning and implementing strategies to address climate change. This section further describes some of the ways SANDAG and local governments are addressing climate change in the San Diego region, both individually and collaboratively. In addition to the plans and programs described below, there are numerous private and non-profit organizations that are acting on climate change.

SANDAG Plans and Programs

Regional Energy Strategy (2009, 2014 Technical Update) The RES establishes goals for the San Diego region to be more energy efficient, to increase use of renewable energy sources, and to enhance the region’s energy infrastructure so that we are able to meet growing energy demand. The San Diego region has a history going back to 1979 of developing an energy strategy, with updates occurring through the 1980s, 1990s, and in 2003. The 2009 RES was developed in response to increasing scientific and policy focus on global climate change and in light of the significant policy changes and implementation programs affecting the electricity, natural gas, and transportation sectors. In order to inform the 2015 Regional Plan, SANDAG undertook a technical update of the RES which demonstrates progress since 2009 toward RES goals, identifies data and monitoring methods for each goal, and provides recommendations for continued progress.

Climate Action Strategy (2010) The Climate Action Strategy is a guide for SANDAG on climate change policy, based on information available at the time of its preparation in 2010. The Strategy identifies a range of potential policy measures—“tools in the toolbox”—for consideration as SANDAG updates long-term planning documents, and as local jurisdictions update their General Plans and other community plans. The Strategy helped SANDAG identify land-use, transportation, and related policy measures and investments that could reduce GHG emissions from passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Potential policy measures also are identified for buildings and energy use, protecting transportation and energy infrastructure from climate impacts, and to help SANDAG and local jurisdictions reduce GHG emissions from their operations. Preparation of new energy efficiency and climate change strategies is proposed to support preparation of the 2019 Regional Plan and would replace existing SANDAG energy and climate strategies.

Riding to 2050, the San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan (2010) and Bike Early Action Program The San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan is a strategy for making the bicycle a more useful form of transportation for everyday travel. The San Diego Regional Bicycle Plan describes the regional bicycle network as a component of the multimodal regional transportation system included in the Regional Plan, as well as the programs that are necessary to support the network. Implementation of the plan is key to achieving the GHG reduction goals of the 2019 Regional Plan and supporting improved public health through active transportation.

When the SANDAG Board of Directors adopted the 2050 RTP/SCS, it committed to developing an early action program for projects included in the Regional Bicycle Plan. In September 2013, the Board approved the Regional Bike Plan Early Action Program with the overall goal to implement

38 89

Bike Plan Network High Priority Projects within 10 years, and execute programs to support the network investments.

Transportation Demand Management Program, iCommute Commuter Services Transportation Demand Management (TDM) refers to programs and strategies that manage and reduce traffic congestion by encouraging the use of transportation alternatives. SANDAG coordinates a number of programs that are increasing the number of commuters who carpool, vanpool, take transit, bike, walk, and telework. These activities are facilitated through the iCommute program. The goal of iCommute is to manage and reduce traffic congestion, as well as reduce GHG emissions and other environmental pollutants that result from commuters driving alone each day. Managing the demand for our roadways is a cost-effective method for improving the daily commute while also improving the quality of life across the region.

SANDAG works closely with Caltrans, the Metropolitan Transit System, North County Transit District, and all 19 jurisdictions within the region. Programs and services provided by iCommute include free, online ridematching, a vanpool subsidy program, transit solutions, bicycle encouragement programs, the Guaranteed Ride Home program, and support for teleworking. Public outreach increases awareness about the variety of transportation choices through events such as Bike to Work Day and Rideshare Week and through direct outreach to employers, community groups, schools, and agencies.

San Diego Region Intelligent Transportation Systems Strategic Plan (2011) The San Diego Region ITS Strategic Plan defines a ten-year vision for the effective use of technology to support intelligent transportation operations and management goals, and identifies key strategies that the region can implement to address critical technical and institutional needs. The purpose of the Plan is to provide policy guidance and a common vision for ITS applications to improve mobility, safety, efficiency, and reliability. One guiding principle of the plan is to prioritize funding for projects that help the region achieve GHG reduction targets and preserve natural resources. The Plan was included as an appendix in the 2015 Regional Plan.

Regional Alternative Fuel Planning One of the six priority early actions identified in the Regional Energy Strategy and actions included in the Regional Plan are to support planning for electric vehicle charging and alternative fueling infrastructure. Strong regional support for alternative fuels can communicate to the market that the San Diego region is committed to, and seeks to attract, investment in alternative fuel vehicles and infrastructure.

Infrastructure needs were identified in a 2009 assessment of how to accelerate deployment of alternative fuel vehicles in and around San Diego entitled the Regional Alternative Fuels, Vehicles, and Infrastructure Report. The report recommended public-private partnerships and collaborative approaches to infrastructure planning and increasing alternative fuels in fleets. Its findings were incorporated into the regional energy and climate strategies, and informed actions for implementation identified in the 2015 Regional Plan. In 2014, SANDAG began Refuel, a regional planning effort to address infrastructure needs for alternative fuels. Refuel helped to streamline and address barriers to alternative fuel adoption, as well as provide best practices and real-time learning and sharing across jurisdictions and develop plan summarizing these concepts. The San Diego Regional Alternative Fuel Readiness Plan was accepted by the SANDAG Board of Directors on February 26, 2016.

39 90

Regional Plug-in Electric Vehicle Planning The San Diego region is at the forefront of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) deployment, and the region’s early PEV experiences identified barriers to widespread PEV adoption. In order to address these barriers, the CEC awarded SANDAG a grant to form the San Diego Regional Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group (REVI) and develop a regional PEV readiness plan. REVI held its kick-off meeting in 2012, and members included representatives from local governments, regional agencies, EV charging manufacturers, local colleges and universities, workforce training programs, and non-profits. The San Diego Regional PEV Readiness Plan was accepted by the SANDAG Board of Directors on January 24, 2014. Activities identified in this plan were implemented through Plug-in SD, a program funded through the CEC. In partnership with the Center for Sustainable Energy, Plug-in SD provides local stakeholders strategic and technical guidance to ensure that the San Diego region is PEV-ready. These outreach efforts have continued, as Plug-in SD was extended due to additional CEC funding.

Energy Roadmap Program The Energy Roadmap Program is a collaboration between SANDAG and SDG&E that began in 2010. It is funded primarily by California utility customers under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission, while SANDAG funds the transportation components. The Energy Roadmap Program provides free energy assessments and energy management plans, or “energy roadmaps,” to SANDAG member agencies. Each energy roadmap provides a framework for a local government to reduce energy use in municipal operations and in the community, and can result in economic savings and environmental benefits. As the Energy Roadmaps were completed for the local jurisdictions in the region, the demand to implement the Roadmaps and to assist in the development and implementation of CAPs increased. In 2016, SANDAG and SDG&E expanded the Energy Roadmap Program into two service areas: energy engineering and climate planning.

Energy engineering services include:

• Energy audits of municipal facilities

• Project management support for energy efficiency retrofits

• Technical support and procurement assistance

• Training and recognition

• Project analysis and recommendations and/or feasibility studies

• Performance monitoring

Climate planning services include:

• GHG inventories and projections

• Monitoring reports

• CAP development

• CAP implementation assistance

40 91

• Reduction measure calculations and analyses

• Benefit-cost analysis

• Implementation cost assessments

• CEQA assistance

• Trainings

Sub-Regional Energy Action Collaboratives Since 2013, SANDAG has offered a “peer to peer” or “neighboring city to neighboring city” approach as an additional method for Energy Roadmap implementation. The objectives of these sub-regional collaboratives are focused on three categories: municipal energy management, building and development processes, and community outreach.

The sub-regional energy action collaboratives are:

• The South Bay Energy Action Collaborative (SoBEAC): founded in 2013 and comprises the Cities of Chula Vista, Coronado, Imperial Beach, and National City. SoBEAC is led by the City of Chula Vista

• The North Coast Energy Action Collaborative: founded in 2015 and comprises the Cities of Del Mar, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Carlsbad, and Oceanside

• Inland Cities Energy Collaborative: founded in 2016, and comprises the Cities of Poway, Escondido, Vista, and San Marcos

• East County Energy Action Collaborative: founded in 2017, and comprises the Cities of Lemon Grove, La Mesa, Santee, and El Cajon

SANDAG Green Operations Manual The SANDAG Green Operations Manual, completed in March 2014, examines programs and projects that the agency oversees or influences, office space, and internal operations, as well as actions that employees can take to save energy and reduce GHG emissions. Development of the manual was made possible through the SANDAG Local Government Partnership with SDG&E. GHG reductions can come from energy efficiency measures, renewable energy options, alternative fuel use, petroleum-reduction practices, and active transportation efforts.

TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program and Active Transportation Grant Program The TransNet Smart Growth Incentive Program (SGIP) funds transportation-related infrastructure improvements and planning efforts that support smart growth development. SANDAG administers the SGIP using regional TransNet half-cent sales tax dollars to fund local governments projects through a competitive grant process that promotes better coordinated transportation and land-use planning in the San Diego region. Through the first three grant cycles of the SGIP and Active Transportation Grant Program (ATGP), more than $22.5 million in federal funds and more than $55 million in TransNet and Transit Development Act funds have been distributed to the cities and the County of San Diego to complete scores of planning and capital projects.

41 92

The goal of the ATGP is to encourage local jurisdictions to plan and build facilities that promote multiple travel choices for residents and connectivity to transit, schools, retail centers, parks, work, and other community gathering places. The grant program provides both capital funding for projects and non-capital funding for plans, bicycle parking, education, encouragement, and awareness programs that support pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure.

In 2017, SANDAG revised the TransNet SGIP and ATGP for the fourth grant cycle to require locally adopted CAPs and complete street policies in order to be eligible for grant funding, to allow local jurisdictions to apply for competitive funding for preparation of a CAP and/or complete streets policy if they do not have one, and to add new GHG Emission Reduction Evaluation Criteria to all SGIP and ATGP grant programs. The most recent Call for Projects for the SGIP/ATGP was released in December 2017 and will distribute up to $27 million in SGIP funds and $3.6 million in ATGP funds.

Regional Transit-Oriented Development Strategy SANDAG prepared a Regional Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Strategy to promote and incentivize sustainable development. More specifically, the strategy focuses on creating TOD projects and neighborhoods that will reduce GHG emissions; increasing transit ridership, walking, and biking; and providing a greater mix of housing and employment opportunities for all residents of the region. This project includes a review and update of the Smart Growth Concept Map and Smart Growth Incentive Program, and other strategies/policies to facilitate development associated with the region’s network of public transit. The Strategy was included as an appendix in the 2015 Regional Plan.

Regional Collaborations

San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative The San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative26 (Climate Collaborative) is a network for public agencies that serve the San Diego region by sharing expertise, leveraging resources, and advancing comprehensive solutions to facilitate climate change planning. By partnering with academia, non-profit organizations, and business and community leaders, the Climate Collaborative also works to raise the profile of regional leadership on addressing potential impacts from climate change. The Climate Collaborative was established as part of the CPUC-funded LGPs among SDG&E and the Cities of Chula Vista and San Diego, the County of San Diego, the Port of San Diego, the University of San Diego, and SANDAG. Additional Climate Collaborative members include the San Diego Foundation, the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority, and several local jurisdictions within the region. The Climate Collaborative hosts trainings, workshops, and networking opportunities for local governments to share best practices and information about climate initiatives across the region and state.

Climate Science Alliance – South Coast The Climate Science Alliance is a partnership between public agencies, conservation organizations, businesses, researchers, artists, educators, and community groups that works to promote climate resiliency within the South Coast eco-region (ranging from Santa Barbara through Baja California). The Climate Science Alliance leads education-based activities to promote increased awareness of climate change-related issues. Recent Climate Science Alliance programs include Climate Kids, which provides youth education on climate change through science, storytelling, and art, and Dial-A-Scientist, which allows partners to contact scientists to support climate science and build a foundation of trust within the community.

42 93

Resilient Coastlines Project of Greater San Diego Funded by the NOAA and convened by the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative, the Resilient Coastlines Project of Greater San Diego (Resilient Coastlines)27 brings together local sea-level rise initiatives to share lessons learned and fills existing knowledge gaps. Work began on the Resilient Coastlines project in early 2016, and project deliverables are expected to be completed in spring 2018. The Resilient Coastlines project has produced a legal risk analysis and economic framework for sea-level rise adaptation strategies, facilitated local workshops on living shoreline strategies, and assisted local jurisdictions with technical assistance and information from the United States Geological Survey on their Coastal Storm Modeling System. Coastal resilience activities occurring in the San Diego region are displayed on an interactive map on the project’s website and include local initiatives undertaken by the Cities of Oceanside, Carlsbad, Del Mar, Encinitas, Solana Beach, and Imperial Beach, the County of San Diego, the United States Navy, the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority, the Tijuana River National Estuarine Research Reserve, the Port of San Diego, and other entities surrounding the San Diego Bay.

Regional Sea-Level Rise Working Group At its core, the Resilient Coastlines project is supported by a Regional Sea-Level Rise Working Group (Working Group). The Working Group integrates and coordinates coastal resilience activity across the region by serving as a central hub to leverage expertise and resources, share technical information, develop consistent planning frameworks, and enhance the overall effectiveness of regional resilience strategies. Although the Resilient Coastlines project is expected to complete all project deliverables in spring 2018, it is expected that the Working Group will continue to coordinate on local sea-level rise planning initiatives to continue leveraging resources and knowledge to support ongoing planning efforts.

San Diego Regional Energy Partnership SANDAG coordinates with other SDG&E LGPs, including the Cities of San Diego and Chula Vista, the County of San Diego, and the San Diego Unified Port District on regional energy efficiency programs through the San Diego Regional Energy Partnership. This partnership includes the continuation and expansion of the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative, the launch of the San Diego Regional Green Business Network, and other energy efficiency related efforts.

Climate Education Partners Climate Education Partners is a project funded by the National Science Foundation to develop climate change education strategies. Climate Education Partners is a collaboration of partners that bring together expertise in climate science, social psychology, law, policy, and communications from the University of San Diego, Energy Policy Initiatives Center, California State University San Marcos, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the San Diego Foundation, and the Steve Alexander Group. The project has conducted public opinion surveys as well as interviews with influential people in the San Diego region in order to understand their views of climate science and the impacts of climate change. Using Geographic Information System Story maps, Climate Education Partners has developed a community toolbox focused on local impacts of climate change for regional leaders and their communities. Climate Education Partners also released a report, entitled “San Diego, 2050 is Calling: How Will We Answer?”, which builds off the 2008 Focus 2050 report from the San Diego Foundation on impacts of climate change in the San Diego region.

43 94

Acronyms

AB 32 Assembly Bill 32 (2006), The Global Warming Solutions Act

CAP Climate Action Plan

CARB California Air Resources Board

CCC California Coastal Commission

CEC California Energy Commission

CEQA California Environmental Quality Act

CHP Combined heat and power

CPUC California Public Utilities Commission

EMP Environmental Mitigation Program

GHG Greenhouse gas

IOU Investor-owned utility

ITS Intelligent Transportation Systems

LCFS Low Carbon Fuel Standard

LGP Local Government Partnership

Low-CI Low carbon-intensity

MMTCO2e Million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent

MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization

MSP Management Strategic Plan

MW Megawatt

OPR Governor’s Office of Planning and Research

PEV Plug-in electric vehicle

RES Regional Energy Strategy

REVI San Diego Regional Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Working Group

RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard

44 95

RTP Regional Transportation Plan

RTP/SCS 2050 Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy

SB 375 Senate Bill 375 (2008), Transportation-Related GHG Targets and Sustainable Communities Strategies for MPOs

SCS Sustainable Communities Strategy

SDCWA San Diego County Water Authority

SDG&E San Diego Gas & Electric

SGIP Smart Growth Incentive Program

TDM Transportation Demand Management

VMT Vehicle miles traveled

ZEV Zero-emission vehicle

45 96

Additional References

Federal

National Climate Assessment (2014) http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report

State of California

Executive Order S-03-05 http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=1861

Assembly Bill 32 – Global Warming Solutions Act (2006) http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm

• 2008 Scoping Plan http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/adopted_scoping_plan.pdf

• 2013 Scoping Plan Update http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm

• 2017 Scoping Plan: https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf

• Cap and Trade http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade.htm

2016 Mobile Source Strategy https://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2016sip/2016mobsrc.htm

California Transportation Plan 2040: Integrating California’s Transportation Future

http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/tpp/californiatransportationplan2040/2040.html

2017 Regional Transportation Plan Guidelines for Metropolitan Planning Organizations

http://catc.ca.gov/programs/rtp/docs/rtp-2017-guidelines-mpos-011817.pdf Senate Bill 375 – Sustainable Communities and Climate Protection Act (2008) http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/sb375.htm

Senate Bill 97 – CEQA Amendments for GHG Analysis (2007) http://ceres.ca.gov/ceqa/guidelines/

Executive Order B-16-12 – Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=17472

• ZEV Action Plan http://www.documents.dgs.ca.gov/ofa/fars/zevactionplan02-13.pdf

• ZEV Community Readiness Guidebook http://opr.ca.gov/docs/ZEV_Guidebook.pdf

Assembly Bill 758 – Comprehensive Energy Efficiency Program for Existing Buildings (2008) http://www.energy.ca.gov/ab758/

Assembly Bill 1550 – Greenhouse Gas Investment Plan for Disadvantaged Communities (2016) https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160AB1550

California Long Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan (2008, 2011) http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/Energy+Efficiency/eesp/

46 97

Executive Order S-13-08 – Climate Adaptation Strategy http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=11036

• California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009, 2013) http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/strategy/index.html

• Safeguarding California (2014, 2018) http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/

• California Adaptation Planning Guide (2012) http://resources.ca.gov/docs/climate/01APG_Planning_for_Adaptive_Communities.pdf

• Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise- science.pdf

Senate Bill 246 – Climate Change Adaptation (2015) https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB246

Pacific Coast Action Plan on Climate and Energy (2013) http://gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18284

California Coastal Commission Sea Level Rise Policy Guidance (2015) http://www.coastal.ca.gov/climate/SLRguidance.html

Governor’s Office of Planning and Research Environmental Goals and Planning Report: “California’s Climate Future” (2013) http://opr.ca.gov/s_egpr.php

47 98

1 Energy Policy Initiatives Center at University of San Diego, August 2015. Note: The wildfire category uses an annual average emissions value based on fires occurring since 1990. 2 California Climate Change Portal website: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/ 3 California Air Resources Board, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, November 2017. 4 California Air Resources Board, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, November 2017. 5 California Air Resources Board, 2018. Updated Final Staff Report, Proposed Update to the SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets, February 2018, p. 14. 6 See California Air Resources Board, Public Meeting to Hear Proposed Update to Senate Bill 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets – Staff Presentation, March 23-24, 2017, Slides 27-34, https://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2017/032317/17-3-7pres.pdf. 7 California Air Resources Board, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, November 2017, p. 101. 8 California Air Resources Board, California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, November 2017, p. 101. 9 The Memorandum of Understanding on Subnational Global Climate Leadership (Under2 MOU) brings together states and regions willing to commit to reducing their GHG emissions by 80 to 95 percent, or to

limit emissions to 2 metric tons CO2-equivalent per capita, by 2050. As of October 2017, 188 jurisdictions had joined California in the Under2 MOU. 10 San Diego Regional Plug-in Electric Vehicle Readiness Plan is available at: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/publicationid/publicationid_1817_17061.pdf. 11 San Diego Regional Alternative Fuel Readiness Plan is available at: http://www.sandag.org/uploads/projectid/projectid_487_20274.pdf. 12 Projected housing and job growth in 1999 (left) and 2013 (right) based upon the SANDAG Series 9 and 13 Regional Growth Forecasts. 13 California Energy Commission, Comprehensive Energy Efficiency Program for Existing Buildings: http://energy.ca.gov/ab758/. 14 California investor-owned utilities are San Diego Gas & Electric, Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Electric, and Southern California Gas. 15 A megawatt is equal to 1,000 kilowatts or one million watts. One megawatt is enough electrical capacity to power about 1,000 average homes in California. 16 California Energy Commission. December 2017. Tracking Progress. Renewable Energy – Overview. http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/documents/renewable.pdf. 17 This figure references the “likely range” of sea-level rise for 2050 based on data from the La Jolla tide gauge, Table 1(c) from Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science. 18 Safeguarding California (2018), Available at: http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/. 19 These projections reference the “likely range” of sea-level rise based on data from the La Jolla tide gauge, Table 1(c), from Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science. The 2100 estimates reference projections from three future GHG emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). 20 California Emergency Management Agency and Natural Resources Agency, California Adaptation Planning Guide: Understanding Regional Characteristics, July 2012. 21 State Wildlife Action Plan. Available at: https://www.wildlife.ca.gov/SWAP/Final 22 North Coast Corridor Public Works Plan/Transportation and Resource Enhancement Program. Appendix D. Draft Final, November 2013. Available at: http://www.dot.ca.gov/dist11/Env_docs/I- 5PWP/Appendices/AppendixD_SanDiego_Region_Coastal_Sea_Level%20Rise%20Analysis.pdf. 23 San Diego Association of Governments, Traded Industry Clusters in the San Diego Region: 2016 Data Update, March 2016.

48 99

24 More information available at: http://www.resilientcoastlines.org/. 25 California Department of Public Health, Integrating Public Health into Climate Action Planning, February 2012. 26 San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative website: www.sdclimatecollaborative.org. 27 Resilient Coastlines Project: http://www.resilientcoastlines.org/.

49 100 AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-6 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: APPROVE

TransNet SENIOR MINI-GRANT PROGRAM: File Number 3320100 PROPOSED AMENDMENT REQUEST

Introduction Recommendation

Approved by the Board of Directors in February 2015, The Transportation Committee is asked the City of Coronado was awarded $88,000 in TransNet to approve an amendment, approving a Senior Mini-Grant funds through the Cycle 8 modified scope of work and 12-month Specialized Transportation Grant Program (STGP) schedule extension for the City of competitive process. The grant was awarded for the Coronado Seniors Out and About City to implement a new program, Coronado Seniors volunteer driver program. Out and About. This volunteer driver program provides Coronado seniors with transportation to the John D. Spreckels Center and Bowling Green (Coronado’s new senior community center), shopping, medical appointments, recreational services, and more.

Discussion

Requested Change in Scope

The original project scope included the City of Coronado providing 16,560 one-way passenger trips over a two-year period at $6.64 per trip. Since the project was initiated on July 1, 2016, the City has provided a little over 1,000 trips at a cost per trip of $39.25. The City has encountered various challenges implementing the project, which are outlined in the attached letter (Attachment 1). The primary reason for the requested scope change is that the grantee did not fully anticipate the level of effort associated with operating a new volunteer driver program. Now that the City has been operating the program for 18 months, it has become clear that the City will not be able to provide the number of trips in the approved scope at the rate of $6.64 per trip. The City is requesting an amendment to the scope which would reduce the number of trips to 4,231 and increase the cost per trip to $26.00.

SANDAG staff has reviewed the request and determined that the proposed change in scope would not have changed the quantitative scores the project received in the competitive process. It is unknown if the change in scope would have resulted in changes to the qualitative scores, which were provided by a panel of five evaluators. It is worth noting that the proposed cost per trip is within the range of other existing successful grantees in the Cycle 8 STGP competitive process. (The average cost per trip is approximately $17. The highest among successful grantees is $44.48 and the lowest is $9.11.) The number of one-way passenger trips also is within the range of other existing successful grantees with operating projects from the Cycle 8 STGP competitive process. (The average number of one-way passenger trips is about 19,000. The highest is 44,000 and the lowest is 4,400.) Requested Schedule Extension

The City of Coronado is requesting an 18-month schedule extension (from July 2018 to December 2019) to complete the proposed revised project. SANDAG Board Policy No. 035: Competitive Grant Program Procedures (Attachment 2), requires a grantee to seek an extension by explaining previous efforts undertaken to maintain the project schedule, the reasons for the delay, why the delay is unavoidable, and demonstrate an ability to succeed in the extended timeframe. The City has provided this information in Attachment 1.

With data provided to SANDAG via monthly progress reports through December 2017, staff has determined the project will likely require an additional 20 months to complete the project. At this time, the City is requesting an 18-month time extension.

Given that the proposed scope and schedule change would not have changed the project ranking in the quantitative evaluation of the project application, SANDAG staff recommends that the proposed project scope and a 12-month schedule extension be approved. SANDAG staff recommends a schedule extension of 12 months, not the 18 months as requested by the City, so that SANDAG staff can revisit the project’s progress with the Independent Taxpayer Oversight Committee (ITOC) and Transportation Committee and determine if an additional time extension is warranted. If another extension is warranted and requested, SANDAG will bring the project before the ITOC and the Transportation Committee again to discuss another extension with additional data to determine the project’s future.

Should the Transportation Committee approve the proposed modifications to the scope of work and the project schedule extension, the project will remain on the cost efficiency and schedule watch list until the data submitted via monthly progress reports indicates that the project can be completed within the updated schedule timeframe.

If the proposed scope and schedule changes are not approved, SANDAG would terminate the agreement with the City, and the remaining grant funds of approximately $55,000 would be returned to the STGP and added to the funding available in the upcoming STGP call for projects. It would be the responsibility of the City to find other funding to sustain the program. This project was brought before the ITOC on February 14, 2018. The ITOC recommended that the Transportation Committee approve the proposed modifications to the scope of work and the 12-month project schedule extension for the Coronado Seniors Out and About Program. Next Steps Pending action by the Transportation Committee, SANDAG staff will either amend the contract and continue providing oversight of the project, or terminate the contract and return the remaining grant funds to the STGP for the next STGP call for projects.

CHARLES “MUGGS” STOLL Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning Attachments: 1. City of Coronado Project Scope and Schedule Amendment Request 2. SANDAG Board Policy No. 035: Competitive Grant Program Procedures Key Staff Contact: Jack Christensen, (619) 699-6995, [email protected]

2 Attachment 1

3 4

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” Residents 60+” Senior Mini Grant GRANTEE: City of Coronado’s “Coronado Seniors Out & About” Cost Efficiency Amendment Request – 10/10/2017

OVERVIEW OF GRANTEE PROGRAM:

The City of Coronado’s “Coronado Seniors Out and About” Program (Out and About) is a volunteer driver program which provides transportation to The City of Coronado (City) residents 60+ years old who have limited or no transportation. Currently, the program has 16 vetted and active volunteer drivers who provide transportation, up to 25 miles one way, for qualified seniors to get to medical appointments, social engagements, volunteer opportunities, beauty salons, meetings, recreation classes and activities, and much more. The program: 1). improves mobility for the growing population of seniors throughout Coronado; 2) facilitates “aging in place” to help aging seniors have healthy and comfortable lives where they reside, volunteer, and have social networks; and 3) reduces traffic congestion and the associated greenhouse emissions throughout Coronado and into San Diego County. “Coronado Seniors Out and About” began providing transportation in March 2017 and currently has 106 riders enrolled with approximately four new applications being submitted weekly.

The proven documented value of the program to this City’s senior population is extraordinary. The program’s benefits appeal to some of the most vulnerable and isolated members of our city. As an island, accessible via a bridge and a congested high speed four-lane freeway, mobility can be intimidating for older drivers and as a result, many of our seniors were not getting to local medical appointments, volunteer opportunities, or social events which impacted their health and elevated their risk of isolation. The volunteers recruited by the program are passionate about the service they provide and are dedicated to taking whatever actions necessary to ensure the program’s success.

City staff have met on a regular basis to monitor the program’s progress and to address the challenges that exist by managing the needs of this well-defined target population. The following request for recalibration of performance indicators and the plan to achieve those, illustrates the challenges the program has experienced and our proposed measures to address those challenges.

GRANTEE REQUEST:

GOLF AND TENNIS SERVICES RECREATION SERVICES JOHN D. SPRECKELS CENTER 2000 VISALIA ROW 1845 STRAND WAY 1019 SEVENTH STREET CORONADO, CA 92118 CORONADO, CA 92118 CORONADO, CA 92118 (619) 522-2438 (619) 522-7342 (619) 522-7343 www.golfcoronado.com www.coronado.ca.us/recreation5 www.coronado.ca.us/spreckels

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” The City of Coronado is requesting an amendmentResidents 60+” to revise the cost-per-trip from $6.64 per trip (as requested in 2014) to $26 per trip. This increase in the cost-per-trip would not have affected the score received by the City as it would have maintained its place in the scoring threshold. The reason for this request is due to the unforeseen amount of time and front-loaded funding required to get the program developed, marketed, vetted, and implemented.

While the City is currently above the cost-per-trip maximum, much of that cost is front-loaded from one-time expenses to get the program up and running including an extensive amount of work to develop and market the program. Efforts in development have included: creating, reviewing and receiving City Attorney approval on all program components, applications and waivers; acquiring insurance naming SANDAG as additionally insured; hiring a senior transportation specialist; procuring and receiving training on the ride scheduling software program; and recruiting and training volunteer drivers committed to driving at least four rides per month. Extensive marketing efforts include: several articles and an advertisement purchased in the Coronado Eagle and Journal; an original logo created and approved; a website created with links for volunteer drivers and riders; created, purchased and displayed three six-foot banners on main thoroughfares around Coronado at least once a month since February; created and purchased car magnets to identify our volunteers drivers’ vehicles; over a dozen program presentations given to various civic groups around Coronado; flyers and information about the program on the City Manager’s weekly video and written report that is distributed to the local community and media; as well as recruiting and approving 106 qualified riders.

The Coronado Senior Out & About Program began operation on March 1, 2017. From March 1 through August 31, 2017, the program has provided 427 rides with total reimbursable expenses during that six-month period equaling $8,367.75. Direct operational costs for that six-month period, minus the initial program development costs, reduces the cost per passenger during the programs initial six months of operation, to $19.60 per trip. The City is well on its way to performing efficiently.

After the initial six months, the program is now fully operational and it has grown significantly to include 16 vetted and trained active drivers and 106 approved riders. Out and About now averages 30 to 40 rides per week while maintaining static operational expenses. While the program took more time to get up and running than originally planned, it is now on track to meet the $26 cost- per-trip cost efficiency we are requesting in the amendment.

An amendment to the cost-per-trip will also affect the other performance indicators. Below are the updated performance indicators showing more realistic service levels and costs for the Coronado Seniors Out and About program. Also included is the narrative describing the reasoning behind

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” the amendment request, the new projectedResidents service 60+” levels, and how the program will reach and maintain the updated performance indicators.

Line Operating Information (Projected for New or Expanded Amount No. Services or Previous Years for Existing Services)

1 Number of Years in Service .5

Original: 0

2 Total Number of One Way Senior Passenger Trips 4231

Original performance indicator: 16560

3 Total Number of Vehicle Trips 3315

Original performance indicator: 8280

4 Average Number of Seats per Vehicle 3

Original performance indicator: 3

5 Total Available Seats (Line 3 multiplied by Line 4) 9945

Original performance indicator: 24840

6 Total Number of Vehicle Service Hours 1850

Original performance indicator: 3312

7 Operating Cost (Total Grant Request divided by 80%) $110,000

Reimbursable Amount $88,000

8 Operating Cost per Passenger (Line 7 divided by Line 2) $26

Original cost per passenger $6.64

9 Operating Cost per Vehicle Service Hour (Line 7 divided by $59.46 “A Transportation Option for Coronado” Line 6) Residents 60+”

Original Cost/VSH $33.21

10 Passenger Utilization as a Percent of Available Seats 43%

(Line 2 divided by Line 5 multiplied by 100)

Original Passenger Load 66.67%

Below is the narrative that summarizes the justification for the amended performance indicators, and the plan to monitor and evaluate them to ensure success.

Performance Indicators Revised: Narrative

1. Recalibrated Performance Indicators:

To meet the grant requirements, updated performance indicators have been developed to reflect realistic program operations in line with community needs.

(a) Total Number of One-Way Senior Passenger Trips & Total Number of Vehicle Trips The total number of one-way-trips has been recalibrated to 4,231. This number reflects 14 months (69 weeks) of remaining operation. Due to program implementation delays leading to respective delays in the budget draw down, a six-month extension will be requested this fiscal year. The extension will have no impact on the total program costs nor require any additional grant funding. With 69 remaining weeks, as we continue to focus efforts on increasing ridership, the number of one-way-passenger rides will increase as they have every month since the program began.

(1) Recruitment of new riders and drivers continues to take place through local media, social media, word of mouth, and community presentations.

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” Residents 60+” (2) Outreach is also being conducted to enrolled riders that have not utilized the system consistently to inquire about potential barriers to utilizing the service and explore additional ways to meet those riders’ transportation needs.

(3) Staff and volunteers will promote participants grouping multiple tasks together such as appointments and errands, to maximize trip efficiency to ensure more one- way rides are being provided in a cost-efficient manner.

(4) Staff and volunteers are making a conscious effort to encourage ridesharing through discussion with participants and facilitated coordination via program staff. This effort will result in an increase in the number of passengers that can be served by a single driver.

(5) Additional efforts to increase rides are being made by reviewing community and neighborhood events that receive high volumes of eligible participants with the goal of expanding current program service hours, currently 8am-5pm on Monday through Saturdays, to target these afterhours programs or events.

Summary: Additional recruitment of new riders and drivers, outreach to currently enrolled riders, combining trips for passengers, encouraging ridesharing, and expanding service hours to target large events to meet seniors’ needs will not only increase ridership to ensure the program is on target to meet the updated Total Number of One Way Senior Passenger Trips performance indicator but also assure the program meets the updated Total Number of Vehicle Trips, updated to 3,315.

(b) Average Number of Seats per Vehicle remains three.

(c) Total Available Seats has been updated to 9,945 based on the updated number of vehicle trips multiplied by the number of seats per vehicle.

(d) Total Number of Vehicle Service Hours has been updated to 1,850 based on the total number of vehicle trips (4,231) and the average time taken per trip (approximately a half hour per vehicle trip).

(e) Operating Cost Per Passenger & Operating Cost Per Vehicle Service Hour The operating cost per passenger was recalibrated to $26 while the operating cost per vehicle service hour was adjusted to $59.46. These adjusted costs are a more realistic number and comparable to similar services across the County.

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” Residents 60+”

6. Initial Program Development Costs: During the initial program development stage the City of Coronado had several one-time or annual costs which exaggerated overhead expenses. Direct costs of $4,499.07 went to the creation and purchase of a program logo; three large 4’x6’ banners; general office supplies; hired a videographer to record the training for future volunteers; professional photos were taken for the marketing flyer was which was printed in full color glossy; logo pocket folders used for distribution of materials including driver training documents and LiveScan background checks; and the initial purchase of the RideScheduler software.

$13,215.49 in staff wages associated with the development and legal review of all program information, evaluations, applications, waivers and statements of understanding; creation and vetting of all program materials, applications and waivers; hiring and training a Senior Transportation Coordinator; volunteer drivers application review and interviews; first aid and CPR instruction and certification for all drivers; salaries for experts in their field (nurse for driver sensitivity training, CHP officer for safe driver training techniques) for the initial driver training. This included $12,224.93 in reimbursable wages solely for program development and $990.56 in wages that went to program marketing.

These initial overhead costs were divided amongst a small number of rides in the beginning reflected a very high cost per ride. As the program ride numbers increase through months of service, the initial overhead costs will be divided between a much larger number of rides and will greatly reduce the cost per ride being provided.

i) Given the critical nature of this program, if the organization is unable to stabilize costs based on the preceding actions, the City of Coronado will work with program staff and leadership to consider how fundraising for the program might be integrated in the City’s development activities.

“A Transportation Option for Coronado” Residents 60+” Rationale for Reasonability of Adjusted Costs

Narrative:

1. Cost comparison to other services:

Now that the program is developed and being operated, the initial program development costs are being averaged across a much larger number of rides. Therefore, the cost per one- way-ride is rapidly decreasing while the increase in the number of rides requests is rapidly increasing each month. The target cost per ride for the Out and About Program is $26. The cost of a similar service such as MTS Access is $35.75 per boarding, a much higher rate and it is unable to provide the same level of service to the riders.

2. Service comparison to other providers:

While similar services provide curb-to-curb transportation, the Coronado Seniors Out and About program provides the traditional curb-to-curb service as well as enhanced services including door-to-door and a door-through-door service to meet the individual needs of the rider. Curb-to-curb means simply picking up and dropping off riders at their destinations; door-to-door is helping riders into and out of cars and to their destination doors; while door-through-door includes all of the above plus helping riders through the door into their homes and/or additional services such as checking in at doctors’ offices and pushing wheelchairs to the rider’s final destination. This service differs substantially from traditional ADA and senior ride services such as MTS Access since passengers receive transportation assistance getting out of their houses, getting into vehicles, getting from vehicles to their destinations, and sometimes even receiving continued care at their destinations, such as accompaniment and assistance on their grocery trips, errands, and medical appointments. This requires volunteers to carefully maneuver wheelchairs, carry bags, groceries, and oxygen tanks, assist in transfer of passengers from wheelchairs and other mobility assistive devices to vehicles, and stow wheelchairs, walkers and mobility devices in their vehicles. There is no other service of this type available to Coronado residents who already have limited to no transportation options. Coronado has been identified as a transportation deficient city The Out and About program is playing a large part in filling that deficiency.

BOARD POLICY NO. 035

COMPETITIVE GRANT PROGRAM PROCEDURES

Applicability and Purpose of Policy

This Policy applies to all grant programs administered through SANDAG, whether from TransNet or another source, including but not limited to the Smart Growth Incentive Program, Environmental Mitigation Program, Bike and Pedestrian Program, Senior Mini Grant Program, Federal Transit Administration grant programs, and Active Transportation Grant Program.

Nothing in this Policy is intended to supersede federal or state grant rules, regulations, statutes, or contract documents that conflict with the requirements in this Policy. There are never enough government grant funds to pay for all of the projects worthy of funding in the San Diego region. For this reason, SANDAG awards grant funds on a competitive basis that takes the grantees’ ability to perform their proposed project on a timely basis into account. SANDAG intends to hold grantees accountable to the project schedules they have proposed in order to ensure fairness in the competitive process and encourage grantees to get their projects implemented quickly so that the public can benefit from the project deliverables as soon as possible.

Procedures

1. Project Milestone and Completion Deadlines

1.1. When signing a grant agreement for a competitive program funded and/or administered by SANDAG, grant recipients must agree to the project delivery objectives and schedules in the agreement. In addition, a grantee’s proposal must contain a schedule that falls within the following deadlines. Failure to meet the deadlines below may result in revocation of all grant funds not already expended. The final invoice for capital, planning, or operations grants must be submitted prior to the applicable deadline.

1.1.1. Funding for Capital Projects. If the grant will fund a capital project, the project must be completed according to the schedule provided in the grant agreement, but at the latest, any necessary construction contract must be awarded within two years following execution of the grant agreement, and construction must be completed within eighteen months following award of the construction contract. Completion of construction for purposes of this policy shall be when the prime construction contractor is relieved from its maintenance responsibilities. If no construction contract award is necessary, the construction project must be complete within eighteen months following execution of the grant agreement.

1.1.2. Funding for Planning Grants. If the grant will fund planning, the project must be completed according to the schedule provided in the grant agreement, but at the latest, any necessary consultant contract must be awarded within one year following execution of the grant agreement, and the planning project must be

12 complete within two years following award of the consultant contract. Completion of planning for purposes of this policy shall be when grantee approves the final planning project deliverable. If no consultant contract award is necessary, the planning project must be complete within two years of execution of the grant agreement.

1.1.3 Funding for Operations Grants. If the grant will fund operations, the project must be completed according to the schedule provided in the grant agreement, but at the latest, any necessary services contract for operations must be awarded within one year following execution of the grant agreement, and the operations must commence within six months following award of the operations contract. If no services contract for operations is necessary, the operations project must commence within one year of execution of the grant agreement.

1.1.4 Funding for Equipment or Vehicles Grants. If the grant will fund equipment or vehicles, the project must be completed according to the schedule provided in the grant agreement, but at the latest, any necessary purchase contracts for equipment or vehicles must be awarded within one year following execution of the grant agreement, and use of the equipment or vehicles for the benefit of the public must commence within six months following award of the purchase contract.

2. Project Milestone and Completion Deadline Extensions

2.1. Schedules within grant agreements may include project scopes and schedules that will identify interim milestones in addition to those described in Section 1 of this Policy. Grant recipients may receive extensions on their project schedules of up to six months for good cause. Extensions of up to six months aggregate that would not cause the project to miss a completion deadline in Section 1 may be approved by the SANDAG Executive Director. Extensions beyond six months aggregate or that would cause the project to miss a completion deadline in Section 1 must be approved by the Policy Advisory Committee that has been delegated the necessary authority by the Board. For an extension to be granted under this Section 2, the following conditions must be met:

2.1.1. For extension requests of up to six months, the grantee must request the extension in writing to the SANDAG Program Manager at least two weeks prior to the earliest project schedule milestone deadline for which an extension is being requested. The Executive Director or designee will determine whether the extension should be granted. The Executive Director’s action will be reported out to the Board in following month’s report of delegated actions.

2.1.2. A grantee seeking an extension must document previous efforts undertaken to maintain the project schedule, explain the reasons for the delay, explain why the delay is unavoidable, and demonstrate an ability to succeed in the extended time frame the grantee proposes.

2.1.3. If the Executive Director denies an extension request under this Section 2, the grantee may appeal within ten business days of receiving the Executive Director’s

13 response to the responsible Policy Advisory Committee by sending the appeal to the SANDAG Program Manager.

2.1.4. Extension requests that are rejected by the Policy Advisory Committee will result in termination of the grant agreement and obligation by the grantee to return to SANDAG any unexpended funds within 30 days. Unexpended funds are funds for project costs not incurred prior to rejection of the extension request by the Policy Advisory Committee.

3. Project Delays and Extensions in Excess of Six Months

3.1. Requests for extensions in excess of six months, or that will cause a project to miss a completion deadline in Section 1 (including those projects that were already granted extensions by the Executive Director and are again falling behind schedule), will be considered by the Policy Advisory Committee upon request to the SANDAG Program Manager.

3.2 A grantee seeking an extension must document previous efforts undertaken to maintain the project schedule, explain the reasons for the delay, explain why the delay is unavoidable, and demonstrate an ability to succeed in the extended time frame the grantee proposes. The grantee must provide the necessary information to SANDAG staff to place in a report to the Policy Advisory Committee. If sufficient time is available, and the grant utilized TransNet funds, the request will first be taken to the Independent Taxpayer Advisory Committee (ITOC) for a recommendation. The grantee should make a representative available at the meeting to present the information to, and/or answer questions from, the ITOC and Policy Advisory Committee.

3.3 The Policy Advisory Committee will only grant an extension under this Section 3 for extenuating circumstances that the grantee could not have reasonably foreseen.

4. Resolution and Execution of the Grant Agreement

4.1 Two weeks prior to the review by the Policy Advisory Committee of the proposed grants, prospective grantees must submit a resolution from their authorized governing body that includes the provisions in this Subsection 4.1. Failure to provide a resolution that meets the requirements in this Subsection 4.1 will result in rejection of the application and the application will be dropped from consideration with funding going to the next project as scored by the evaluation committee. In order to assist grantees in meeting this resolution deadline, when SANDAG issues the call for projects it will allow at least 90 days for grant application submission.

4.1.1 Grantee governing body commits to providing the amount of matching funds set forth in the grant application.

4.1.2 Grantee governing body authorizes staff to accept the grant funding and execute a grant agreement if an award is made by SANDAG.

4.2 Grantee’s authorized representative must execute the grant agreement within 45 days from the date SANDAG presents the grant agreement to the prospective grantee for

14 execution. Failure to meet the requirements in this Subsection 4.2 may result in revocation of the grant award.

5. Increased Availability of Funding Under this Policy

5.1. Grant funds made available as a result of the procedures in this Policy may be awarded to the next project on the recommended project priority list from the most recent project selection process, or may be added to the funds available for the next project funding cycle, at the responsible Policy Advisory Committee’s discretion. Any project that loses funding due to failure to meet the deadlines specified in this Policy may be resubmitted to compete for funding in a future call for grant applications.

Adopted: January 2010 Amended: November 2014

15 AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-7 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: INFORMATION

SAN DIEGO FORWARD: THE 2019-2050 REGIONAL File Numbers 3102000, 7300600 PLAN – SOCIAL EQUITY ANALYSIS OVERVIEW

Introduction

Public transit, freeways, local streets and roads, and other transportation infrastructure have a significant effect on the quality of life for a region’s residents by shaping access to jobs, education, housing, services, and recreational opportunities. Achieving social equity in the development of the transportation network is vital to the region’s sustainability goals. It requires making investments that provide everyone – regardless of age, race, color, national origin, income, or physical agility – with opportunities to work, shop, study, be healthy, and play.

Consistent with past practice and state and federal laws, SANDAG will conduct a social equity analysis as part of the development of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan) to assess the distribution of benefits and burdens of the transportation network. This report provides an overview of the proposed approach for the social equity analysis.

Discussion

The social equity analysis for the 2019 Regional Plan will look at the benefits and burdens resulting from SANDAG projects and programs on the region’s low income, minority, and senior populations to ensure that there is no disparate impact or disproportionate effect on these focused populations in relation to the rest of the population. This social equity analysis is required by Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. The analysis will draw upon several resources, including the 2019 Performance Measures currently under development, a new Social Equity Analysis Tool (SEAT), and input from the newly-formed SANDAG 2019 Regional Plan Community-Based Organizations Working Group (CBO Working Group). The two elements of a social equity analysis involve identifying the populations to be examined and then using performance measures to evaluate the impacts of the transportation network on those populations.

As required by Assembly Bill 805 (AB 805) (Gonzalez Fletcher, 2017), the 2019 Regional Plan also will identify disadvantaged communities in the region, pursuant to Health and Safety Code Section 39711. These provisions in state law require SANDAG to identify certain communities that are considered disadvantaged communities due to higher pollution exposure, and require SANDAG to include transportation strategies in the Regional Plan to reduce pollution exposure.

Defining the San Diego Region’s Social Equity Focus Populations and Disadvantaged Communities

Social Equity Focus Populations

San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan identifies three social equity focus (SEF) populations: (1) minorities1, (2) low-income populations, and (3) seniors. For the 2019 Regional Plan, the travel patterns of minorities will be analyzed through the SANDAG Activity-Based Model. For the other two populations, the Regional Plan sets the threshold for low-income populations at 200 percent of the federal poverty level and reflects the higher cost of living in the San Diego region as compared to other areas of the state and nation. The threshold for the senior population consists of those 75 years and older, the age at which seniors are still mobile, but may become transit-dependent. The characteristics of these three population groups can be forecasted with SANDAG modeling tools.

Disadvantaged Communities

In accordance with AB 805, SANDAG also will identify the location of disadvantaged communities as designated pursuant to Section 39711 of the Health and Safety Code. The California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment has developed a screening tool for designating these communities, called the California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool, or CalEnviroScreen for short. This statewide tool evaluates multiple pollutants and stressors at the census tract level. CalEnviroScreen provides a snapshot of existing conditions based on historical data; it does not predict future conditions for disadvantaged communities. In accordance with AB 805, SANDAG will use this data to develop strategies for reducing pollution exposure for these affected communities.

Performance Measures and Social Equity Analysis Tool

On February 2, 2018, the Transportation Committee discussed the Performance Measures2 for the 2019 Regional Plan, which will be used to evaluate the overall performance of the transportation networks. A subset of the Performance Measures was identified for inclusion in the social equity analysis, as marked in Attachments 1 and 2 of the link above. The analysis will compare the performance of the networks for the three SEF populations against their respective ‘non’-populations (meaning minority versus non-minority populations; low-income versus non-low-income populations; and senior versus non-senior populations).

In addition, SANDAG recently completed the development of an analytical tool for social equity analysis. The new SEAT includes some of the social equity performance measures used in the Regional Plan, as well as new measures. SEAT was developed in collaboration with small and large Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and Regional Transportation Planning Agencies (RTPAs) in California with the goal of developing a more consistent analytic method for assessing whether

1 Minority is defined as a person who is: Black (having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa); Hispanic (of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race); Asian American (having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, or the Pacific Islands); or American Indian and Alaskan Native (having origins in any of the original people of North America and who maintains cultural identification through tribal affiliation or community recognition). Source: USDOT FTA Circular 4702.1B – Title VI Requirements and Guidelines for Federal Transit Administration Recipients.

2 The draft Performance Measures are scheduled for recommendation by the Regional Planning Committee on March 2, 2018, and by the Transportation Committee on March 16, 2018.

2 there will be an equitable distribution of the positive or negative consequences on SEF populations resulting from a proposed network of transportation projects.

The SEAT measures, shown in Table 1 below, have two tiers. Tier 1 measures have readily available data, with methods that can be carried out by all California MPOs and RTPAs with existing data and resources. Tier 2 measures include additional methods and measures within the existing capabilities of larger MPOs, like SANDAG. The tool allows the MPOs and RTPAs to calculate the performance measures included the table for the SEF and non-SEF populations, as relevant to the goals and characteristics of their regions.

Table 1: Performance Measures Available in the SEAT

Tier Equity Area Measure

1 Mobility • Near transit: Living within a user-specified distance of transit stops.

• Travel time: Average weekday travel time, weighted by time of day and mode.

Accessibility/Benefits • Distribution of investments: Average per capita spending, relying on the user to specify the dollars invested in each area unit.

• Access to community resource (e.g., employment, medical care, parks, and education): Relative access to resources, based on average weekday travel time and time thresholds specified by users.

Health/Environment/Burdens • Near road population (for air and noise): Living within 500 feet, or other user-specified distance, of major roadways.

2 Affordability • Transportation affordability (with housing affordability available): Living in unaffordable locations, defined as user-specified ratio of cost of housing and transportation to income.

Health Benefits • Minutes of physical activity: Average physical activity minutes, relying on user to upload minutes by area unit.

Work remains to be done to finalize which performance measures from both the subset of the 2019 Regional Plan and those available in the SEAT will provide the most meaningful results from a social equity perspective.

3 2019 Regional Plan Community-Based Organizations Working Group

On February 2, 2018, the Regional Planning Committee approved the formation of the 2019 Regional Plan CBO Working Group to provide ongoing public input from disadvantaged or underrepresented communities in the region on key activities associated with developing the 2019 Regional Plan and related planning activities with a focus on the social equity perspective. The group consists of 13 representatives from CBOs or community collaboratives serving underserved/ disadvantaged communities throughout the region that were selected through a competitive Request for Proposals process by SANDAG. In addition to their public involvement role, key tasks for the group in the coming months will be to weigh in on the social equity performance measures, and identifying other additional or alternative measures that could be considered in the analysis.

Next Steps

SANDAG will work with the CBO Working Group to refine the draft social equity performance measures and identify potential strategies for the reduction of pollution exposure. The preferred social equity performance measures will be provided to the Policy Advisory Committees and Board of Directors for consideration this spring. The results of the social equity analysis will be presented this summer, in conjunction with the results of the overall Performance Measures for the 2019 Regional Plan. Once the preferred network is selected, pollution-reduction strategies for disadvantaged communities will be considered for incorporation into the 2019 Regional Plan.

CHARLES “MUGGS” STOLL Director of Land Use and Transportation Planning

Key Staff Contact: Jane Clough, (619) 699-1909, [email protected]

4 AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-8 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: DISCUSSION

FIRST TransNet TEN-YEAR REVIEW: File Number 1500100 PROPOSED “LOOK-AHEAD” IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Introduction

The TransNet Extension Ordinance (Ordinance) requires that the Board of Directors, acting as the San Diego County Regional Transportation Commission, conduct a Ten-Year Comprehensive Program Review (Ten-Year Review) of all TransNet projects and programs to evaluate and improve performance of the overall program.

Based on Board direction, the Ten-Year Review was initiated in summer 2017 and conducted as a two-step process. The first step, which entailed a “look-back” to assess the performance of the overall TransNet Program to date, was presented to the Board at its January 26, 2018, meeting. The second step entails a “look-ahead,” using the results from the first step as a basis to consider potential revisions to the Expenditure Plan and other provisions of the Ordinance to improve performance of the TransNet Program going forward.

This report presents the proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan (Attachment 1).

Discussion

Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan

The proposed Implementation Plan summarizes future considerations from the Look-Back report by the auditor in addition to comments from the Board, Policy Advisory Committees, and working groups. It also highlights preliminary action items and a suggested near-term implementation timeline for each. While each action item is proposed to be addressed either as stand-alone reports (Section A), future State of the Commute reports (Section B), or as part of San Diego Forward: The 2019-2050 Regional Plan (2019 Regional Plan) (Section C), regularly-scheduled updates to the Independent Taxpayer Oversight Committee, Transportation and Regional Planning Committees, and Board on the overall implementation of the Look-Ahead Implementation Plan also are proposed.

Consistent with the SANDAG Board of Directors’ Plan of Excellence, a Peer Review Process is proposed to be conducted for the Ten-Year Review Look-Ahead Implementation Plan. The main focus could include an emphasis on data-intensive components, such as regionwide performance tracking and reporting as well as performance monitoring activities under 2019 Regional Plan action items.

Next Steps

Pending feedback from the Transportation and Regional Planning Committees on the proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan, preliminary action items and associated timelines would be refined and presented for additional review.

JOSÉ A. NUNCIO TransNet Department Director

Attachment: 1. First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

Key Staff Contact: Ariana zur Nieden, (619) 699-6961, [email protected]

2 Attachment 1 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 A. General Ten-Year Review Implementation/Stand-Alone Items: Items listed in this category are proposed to be brought back to the Independent Taxpayer Oversight Committee, Policy Advisory Committees and Board of Directors as stand-alone presentations with further analysis and options for Board consideration [items not listed in priority order]. A1 Kick off the Ten-Year Look- Presentation to the Transportation and Ahead Regional Planning Committees scheduled for March 2, 2018

A2 Prepare a three- to four- A Ten-Year Review webpage has been created page summary of the (www.sandag.org/TransNet10YearReview) Look-Back for wider where information on both the Look-Back and distribution Look-Ahead components of the Ten-Year Review will be continually updated. The Look- Back Summary is scheduled for distribution in late March 2018 to a wider audience through an infographic reader-friendly handout, article in the SANDAG Region e-newsletter, and other media.

A3 Consider conducting Ten- This request would require an Ordinance Year Review more amendment. An alternative could be to frequently require periodic check-ins with the Board of Directors to set the framework and process in motion with an eye toward the next Ten-Year Review.

3 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 A4 Consider increasing the level Staff will be drafting a Specialized of funding made available to Transportation Strategic Plan that would the TransNet Senior Mini- include analysis of this request among other Grant program areas to maximize funding available and services provided under the Senior Mini-Grant Program going forward.

A5 Consider: This item would require input from local - Additional accountability agencies and other stakeholders, research into and reporting from best practices and data collection and TransNet Local Streets and reporting systems available, staff, and funding Roads program. resources. The Board may wish to consider establishing a working group dedicated to this - Implementation of a tool work effort. to help local agencies better track the use of TransNet The FY 2018 TransNet Triennial Performance funds in support of Audit also is expected to include alternate modes. recommendations in this area. The draft Performance Audit is scheduled to be - Regionwide allocations presented to the Transportation Committee from TransNet or other and preliminary discussions with the sources for performance Cities/County Transportation Advisory tracking and reporting for Committee (CTAC) could begin in April 2018. TransNet Local Streets and Roads and Environmental The TransNet Dashboard available at Mitigation Program; and to KeepSanDiegoMoving.com also could be used comply with state and as a platform for reporting and monitoring this federal performance type of information. reporting requirements.

- Create a dashboard to collect and report performance information from local jurisdictions.

4 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 A6 Consider elimination of Elimination of the ratio would require an 70/30 congestion relief and Ordinance amendment; modifying the maintenance ratio for definition would require an amendment to TransNet Local Streets and Board Policy No. 031: TransNet Ordinance and Roads program. Expenditure Plan Rules. Preliminary discussions with CTAC could begin in April Modify 70/30 split definition 2018 with a goal to wrap up in early to mid- or change the 1-inch FY 2019. requirement for pavement overlays.

A7 Consider performing a more In conjunction with statewide targets for robust analysis of bike rider reducing the number of non-motorized and pedestrian safety cause fatalities and serious injuries established in and effect to ascertain what response to federal legislation, SANDAG will be can be done differently to monitoring the annual number of non- get a better result. motorized fatalities and serious injuries. It is anticipated that 2018 data will be analyzed in December 2019 to determine if the 2018 statewide safety targets have been met. The FY 2018 TransNet Triennial Performance Audit also is expected to include recommendations in this area. A8 Consider investigating the This request will be addressed as part of the price demand elasticity upcoming comprehensive regional fare study between fare levels and in conjunction with the transit operators and as a part of the major corridor transit ridership. operations funding discussions underway. The

Transportation Committee and Board of Directors will be asked to provide direction at future meetings leading up to adoption of any fare changes.

5 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 A9 Consider developing a The ITOC reviewed regular reports on projection of the future tax quarterly financials and developments in the receipts allocable by the financial markets at its February 14, 2018, ITOC meeting, and this information will be TransNet Ordinance updated in future reports. COMPLETE percentage to Major

Projects and how those projected receipts will be spent for debt service compared to new projects. A10 Consider impact of potential This item will be addressed in the financial changes to sales taxes over markets and quarterly finance report provided time. to the Board on a quarterly basis.

A11 Monitor EMP Local The MOA between SANDAG and Mitigation to maximize environmental agencies expires in FY 2018. effective use of funds. Presentations to various committees and the Board on the new draft MOA will include discussion of this item leading up to adoption of the new MOA.

A12 For the Look-Back report, This has been clarified in the report and is add qualifier to provide reflected in the Ten-Year Review report posted clarification on when the on the Ten-Year Review webpage. Bike EAP started to provide www.sandag.org/TransNet10YearReview COMPLETE context on miles of bikeway constructed and underway.

6 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 B. 2017 State of the Commute Report: The State of the Commute (SOC) report includes factors such as level of service measurements, throughput in major travel corridors, and travel time comparisons to be used as a tool in the Regional Plan development process. Items in this category would be addressed through incorporation into future State of the Commute reports. [items not listed in priority order] B1 Consider better evaluating This area to be further developed as part of major transit commuting future SOC reports in addition to deeper services and how those analysis of vehicular commute identified in the have changed in order to following item. assist the public in understanding how commute times have improved.

B2 Consider performing a This area will be further developed as part of deeper analysis of average future SOC reports relative to population and vehicular commute time to employment growth to provide a more enhance future decision- meaningful assessment. making.

C. 2019 Regional Plan: Items in this category will be addressed as part of the 2019 Regional Plan activities currently taking place and leading up to final adoption scheduled for the Board of Directors in fall 2019. [items not listed in priority order]

C1 Consider including an This item will be considered as part of the final emphasis on VMT Performance Measures (anticipated to be reduction. brought for Board approval in spring 2018) and transportation network development for the 2019 Regional Plan (anticipated to be considered in summer/fall 2018).

7 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 C2 Consider investment for The Transportation and Regional Planning technology to manage Committees discussed the Emerging transportation network by Technologies White Paper at their February optimizing capacity-building 2018 meetings. White papers will help inform investments already made the 2019 Regional Plan and the region’s future and use existing transportation network and investments. The infrastructure to leverage network development process will continue under-used capacity across through the first half of 2018. modes of transportation. C3 Consider potential safety Safety performance measures are included in improvements when the draft set of metrics for the 2019 Regional prioritizing projects as part Plan and will be assessed for the entire of the transportation network (anticipated to be brought for Board network development approval in spring 2018). process.

C4 Continually reevaluate This will be discussed as part of the portfolio of projects 2019 Regional Plan network development remaining to be completed process scheduled to continue through the to ensure these are the best first half of 2018 mix compared to SANDAG and TransNet program goals. C5 Aside from the projects The Policy Advisory Committees and Board will identified specifically in the be asked to provide input on more measurable Ordinance for completion, goals and targets that would inform the next the goals established at the Ten-Year Review (FY 2029 Ten-Year Review). outset of the program were The FY 2018 TransNet Triennial Performance neither sufficiently robust Audit is expected to include recommendations nor measurable as to enable in this area (scheduled for ITOC consideration a more impactful Ten-Year in April 2018). In addition, a performance Review. monitoring report for the 2015 Regional Plan is scheduled to be completed in calendar year

8 First TransNet Ten-Year Review: Proposed Look-Ahead Implementation Plan Matrix

No. Future Preliminary Action Items February March April May June July 2018 Considerations/Feedback thru Fall 2019 FY 2018 For the next Ten-Year 2018 and could inform future goals/targets Review (FY 2029), based on trends from that performance consider comparing monitoring report. progress against ourselves versus compared to other regions and evaluate progress based on funds spent. C6 Consider analyzing whether This area will be addressed as part of the transit investment increased performance monitoring report to be the percentage of conducted in 2018 for the 2015 Regional Plan commuters using transit or to correlate ridership increase to overall does this increase in increase in travel to determine whether transit ridership just reflect more investments have increased the percentage or commuters across all modes share of commuters using transit. to understand whether the percentage of total commute traffic by transit increased.

9 ***REVISED***

AGENDA ITEM NO. 18-03-9 TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE MARCH 2, 2018 ACTION REQUESTED: INFORMATION

OVERVIEW OF PROPOSED File Number 1500100 2018 TransNet SHORT-TERM BOND ISSUANCE

Introduction

On October 27, 2017, the Board of Directors approved the 2016-2017 Major Corridors TransNet Plan of Finance update, which anticipated the issuance of up to $537.5 million in fixed-rate, tax-exempt municipal short-term bonds to continue advancing the Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project. Staff will provide an overview of the proposed strategy and financing schedule for the planned 2018 bond issuance.

Discussion

To carry out the Board’s direction to continue implementation of the TransNet Early Action Program, SANDAG would need to return to the bond market in spring 2018 to issue up to $537.5 million in short-term, fixed-rate, tax-exempt bonds. With the assistance of the financial advisor to SANDAG, Public Financial Management (PFM), staff has competitively procured the services of an external team of investment banking firms, bond counsel, and disclosure counsel to assist with the 2018 bond transaction. SANDAG staff and the external team currently are drafting the appropriate bond documents to be brought back for review and approval by the Board of Directors later this month.

The memorandum from PFM (Attachment 1) provides further detail regarding the proposed 2018 bond issuance.

Next Steps

Presentation of final bond documents associated with the issuance of up to $500 $537.5 million in new short-term bonds is scheduled for the March 16, 2018, Transportation Committee, and March 23, 2018, Board of Directors, meetings. Closing of the 2018 transaction is scheduled for April 2018.

ANDRÉ DOUZDJIAN Director of Finance Attachment: 1. Memorandum from PFM dated February 22, 2018 Key Staff Contacts: André Douzdjian, (619) 699-6931, [email protected] Ray Major, (619) 595-5668, [email protected] Jose Nuncio, (619) 699-1908 [email protected]

Attachment 1

February 22, 2018

Memorandum To: SANDAG Board of Directors

From: Peter Shellenberger, PFM Financial Advisors LLC Darren Hodge, PFM Financial Advisors LLC

Re: 2018 Short-Term Notes

INTRODUCTION PFM Financial Advisors LLC (“PFM”), as the financial advisor to SANDAG, has worked with SANDAG staff to provide an update on the proposed Series 2018 Short-Term Notes (“Series 2018 Notes”). As outlined in the latest plan of finance, SANDAG needs approximately $560 million in note proceeds to fund expenses and reimburse expenditures associated with the Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project. SANDAG already has used 2016 bond proceeds and will potentially use Commercial Paper proceeds to finance Mid-Coast Corridor Transit Project costs. As such, a portion of the proposed note proceeds may be used to reimburse the 2016 bond fund and refinance a portion of outstanding Commercial Paper. The proposed 2018 financing will consist of tax-exempt, fixed-rate notes and will be issued in April amid what is anticipated to be a favorable interest rate environment. Presented below are a brief market overview and an update on the anticipated financing.

MARKET UPDATE For the purpose of tracking municipal interest rates over time, we use the AAA Municipal Market Data Index (“AAA MMD”), which serves as the benchmark against which most tax-exempt, fixed- rate transactions are priced. The chart below tracks the 3-year maturity over the past ten years. The 3-year maturity is a good proxy for the final maturity on the proposed Series 2018 Notes. Although rates have risen over the past year, the current market still provides a favorable borrowing environment amid volatility.

As shown in the chart above tax-exempt interest rates remain at low levels. The current 3-year AAA MMD yield is 1.67%, 0.68% above its ten-year average.

OVERVIEW OF SERIES 2018 SHORT TERM NOTES SANDAG conducted a competitive RFP process to select the underwriting and legal team. The underwriters selected for the transaction include Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Wells Fargo Securities, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Bond Counsel is Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP and Disclosure Counsel is Norton Rose Fulbright. SANDAG, its financial advisor, banking team, and legal team kicked-off the Series 2018 Notes financing on January 11, 2018, and discussed timing, execution, and related matters. The team has worked over the following months to prepare documents, rating agency presentations, and other materials in preparation for the sale.

Size and Structure: As noted earlier, the Series 2018 Notes are being sold to fund capital expenses and reimburse SANDAG for prior expenditures associated with the Mid-Coast Transit project. The proposed notes are to be sold as traditional tax-exempt, fixed-rate notes, taking advantage of low borrowing costs in today’s market. The notes are secured by a subordinate lien on TransNet sales tax revenues, below SANDAG’s outstanding senior lien bonds and on parity with the Commercial Paper program. SANDAG will repay interest on the notes with TransNet revenues, while the principal amount is expected to be repaid by a draw on SANDAG’s Junior Subordinate Lien TIFIA loan in FY 2021. As the Series 2018 Notes are secured by a subordinate lien pledge on TransNet sales tax revenues, should the TIFIA loan not be used or be able to be drawn upon at maturity of the notes, SANDAG will need to fund repayment of the Series 2018 Notes through other available sources such as tax-exempt bonds, additional short-term notes or sales tax revenues, among other options, or any combination thereof. The Series 2018 Notes are expected to be sold with a 6-month call feature, allowing SANDAG to call the notes 6 months before the stated maturity date, without penalty. This call feature provides flexibility to structure the maturity of the notes 6 months after the expected draw on the TIFIA loan. This provides SANDAG flexibility and time to respond should there be some delay in accessing the TIFIA loan. If there is no delay, SANDAG will exercise the 6-month call option and repay the bonds on the call date with the draw upon the TIFIA loan. The notes would not be sold with a Debt Service Reserve Fund. The par amount of the Series 2018 Notes is expected to be the full amount of $537,480,000 authorized under the TIFIA loan agreement. In the current low interest rate environment, the notes will generate “premium” and total project fund proceeds are expected to be approximately $570 million. Annual senior lien debt service on outstanding senior lien bonds (i.e., not including the proposed Series 2018 Notes, commercial paper or the undrawn TIFIA loan) is currently $105.3 million. Interest on the proposed Series 2018 Notes is expected to be an additional $21.5 million annually through 2021 (when the TIFIA loan is draw to repay the notes) on the second, subordinate lien. When including commercial paper (also on the second lien), annual debt on the combined senior and second lien will be approximately $133.3 million through 2021. Using FY 2017 sales tax

revenues, this results in senior lien coverage of 2.70 times and combined senior and subordinate coverage of 2.13 times. This is considered strong debt service coverage from a credit rating perspective. Given the principal amount of the Series 2018 Notes is expected to be repaid with a draw on the TIFIA loan, the principal amount of the Series 2018 Notes is not included in the following debt service graph. Instead, the full amount of the TIFIA loan and its expected repayment schedule is included.

The financing team will continue to work with SANDAG as we approach pricing to evaluate any structural adjustments that would benefit SANDAG. The structure described above is what is currently anticipated, but is subject to change.

Rating Agency Strategy: SANDAG currently maintains short-term ratings supporting the commercial paper program on the subordinate lien. With the issuance of 3-year notes (i.e., the proposed Series 2018 Notes), SANDAG will request long-term ratings on these new subordinate lien obligations. While often referred to as “short-term,” investors purchasing 3-year notes expect to see long-term ratings. SANDAG will approach S&P and Fitch to provide ratings on the Series 2018 Notes. Two ratings are consistent with market standards for similar credits and also SANDAG’s recent approach on its last two Senior Lien Sales Tax Revenue Bonds. Two ratings will also help improve the marketability of the notes. In connection with securing long-term ratings on the subordinate lien, SANDAG and its financing team are updating certain terms and covenants within the legal documents to better reflect market demand and rating agency criteria for such borrowings.

Documents and Schedule: The SANDAG legal team has drafted documents in connection with the 2018 Notes. These include: the Subordinate Indenture, First Supplemental Subordinate Indenture, Resolution, Preliminary Official Statement, and Note Purchase Agreement. These documents will be presented for Board approval at the March 23, 2018, Board meeting. Following Board approval and upon receipt of the ratings, SANDAG and its financing team will release the Preliminary Official Statement and embark on a marketing strategy prior to pricing the

4 First TransNet Ten‐Year Review: Proposed “Look‐Ahead” Implementation Plan

Transportation Committee Item 8 | March 2, 2018

Section 17. Ten‐Year Comprehensive Program Review

“The Commission shall conduct a comprehensive review of all projects and programs implemented under the Expenditure Plan to evaluate the performance of the overall program over the previous ten years and to make revisions to the Expenditure Plan to improve its performance over the subsequent ten years. Such comprehensive program reviews shall be conducted in Fiscal Years 2019, 2029 and 2039. Revisions to the Ordinance and Expenditure Plan required as a result of the ten‐year review shall be subject to the amendment process in Section 16.”

Transportation Committee Item 8 | March 2, 2018 1 Two‐Step Process

• Step 1: “Look‐Back” to assess performance to date – Look back since 2005 (beginning of TransNet EAP) – Streamline data collection with ITOC performance audit

• Step 2: “Look‐Ahead” to consider potential revisions – Look forward through 2048 (TransNet Extension sunset) – Coordinate with the 2019 Regional Plan activities

Proposed Look‐Ahead Implementation Plan

• Preliminary action items

• Implementation timeline

• Address action items A. Stand‐alone reporting B. State of the Commute C. 2019 Regional Plan • Ongoing updates

• Peer Review Process ‐ emphasis on data‐intensive components – Regionwide performance tracking and reporting – Performance monitoring activities

Transportation Committee Item 8 | March 2, 2018 2 Future Considerations from Look‐Back Report

• A5 ‐ “pursue regionwide allocations from TransNet or other sources for performance tracking and reporting for the TransNet Local Streets and Roads Program…and to comply with state and federal performance reporting requirements” • C4 ‐“reevaluate portfolio of projects remaining to be completed to ensure these are the best mix compared to SANDAG and TransNet program goals”

Look‐Ahead Progress Highlights to Date

• Ten‐Year Look‐Ahead kick‐off • Finalized Ten‐Year Look‐Back report • Launched sandag.org/TransNet10YearReview web page • Summary of Look‐Back report as infographic • Developed Major Corridors projection • Estimate 6 of 20 action items completed in FY 18

Transportation Committee Item 8 | March 2, 2018 3 Next Steps

• March 14: ITOC • March 23: Board of Directors • Spring 2018: Refine action items/timeframes based on input and present for additional review as necessary • Fall 2018: Provide first regular update on overall implementation

Transportation Committee Item 8 | March 2, 2018 4 Overview of Proposed 2018 TransNet Short-Term Bond Issuance

Transportation Committee Item 9 | March 2, 2018

2018 Bond Financing Team

. San Diego County Regional Transportation Commission . Kim Kawada, Chief Deputy Executive Director . Andre Douzdjian, Finance Director . Jose Nuncio, TransNet Department Director . John Kirk, General Counsel . Ray Major, Chief Economist and Technical Services Director . Financial Advisors, Public Financial Management . Peter Shellenberger, Managing Director . Darren Hodge, Director . Bond Counsel, Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe, LLP . Mary Collins, Partner . Devin Brennan, Partner . Disclosure Counsel, Norton Rose Fulbright, LLP . Victor Hsu, Partner . Russ Trice, Partner . Senior Underwriter, Citigroup . Chris Mukai, Director . Ron Merino, Director

Transportation Committee Item 9 | March 2, 2018 1 2018 Bond Issuance Presentation

1. Why we need to issue new Short-Term Notes 2. Size, structure, and projected debt service 3. Credit rating on subordinate lien 4. Various draft bond documents that will be reviewed 5. Calendar of events

Highest Level of Spending 2018-2020

Mid-Coast Corridor Project Expenditures By Year

$Millions

$450 Projected Expenses

$400

$350 Actual Expenses $300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$- FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

Transportation Committee Item 9 | March 2, 2018 2 Size, Structure, and Projected Debt Service

. Issuance of up to $537.5M . Annual interest cost of ~$21.5M . All-in true interest cost of . Expected maturity of 2021 ~1.92% . Taken out by TIFIA loan

300 2017 Sales Tax Revenues 250 2021: Notes 2026: TIFIA Repaid from Repayment 200 TIFIA Draw Begins

150

100 $Millions

0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048

Senior Lien Debt Service CP Amortization Interest on Notes Est. Junior Sub. TIFIA Loan Debt Service 2017 Sales Tax Revenues

Credit Rating Agency Reviews

. Current high credit ratings on SANDAG Senior debt Current ratings . Standard & Poor’s: AAA . Fitch: AAA . Moody’s: Aa2 . Currently no ratings on Subordinate lien Anticipated ratings . Standard & Poor’s: AA Category . Fitch: AA Category . Moody’s: No rating

Transportation Committee Item 9 | March 2, 2018 3 2018 Bond Documents for Review

. The Resolution authorizes issuance of the 2018 Notes and approves the following documents: . Official Statement . Subordinate Indenture . First Supplemental Subordinate Indenture . Note Purchase Agreement . Continuing Disclosure Agreement

7 7

Next Steps

. March 5 – Rating Agency Presentation . March 9 – Board of Directors Short Term Notes Overview . March 16 – Transportation Committee review of Bond documents and recommend Board approval . March 23 – Board review and approval of Bond documents . March 23 – Post Official Statement . Week of March 26 – Marketing of Bonds . Week of April 2 – Pricing . Week of April 16 –Close

Transportation Committee Item 9 | March 2, 2018 4 3-2-18 Transportation Committee Meeting

1.0 Roads, Rail, High-Speed Rail, Bridges, Busses, and Bicycle lssues

1.1- Roads

1.L.2 lnterstate

As the electronic logging device-ELD-era gets underway in the U.S., Canada is planning an ELD mandate of their own by 2O20, for federally regulated truckers. Canadian truckers that cross the border each day already are required to use ELDs as well as meet other U.S. regulations when in the country. The practice of the "self-certification" process for ELD venders is being challenged by drivers, over lack of federal oversight issues.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,z}tg pp. 26-28

L.2 Rail

1.2.6 lnternational Freight Systems

L.2.6.t China's Belt and Road lnitiative

Container ships carry more than 25E3-TEUs/wk between Asia and Europe, while just 4,000-TEUs/wk move by rail from China-less than 2% of the weekly total, says Clemence Cheng, executive director of Hutchison Ports and CEO of the Port to Felixstowe. The number of weekly eastbound ocean services has increased from less than LO-several years ago, to more than 50-today, connecting eight Chinese terminals with 6-in Europe. The number of westbound services from Europe soared to 23/wk. The Chinese government wants to double the number of annual trains to 5,000 by 2020 and grow L0O%/yr.80%of trade is by ocean and railshould be looked at as an integrated network not a threat to ocean services. lntegrating parts of a supply chain is traditionally done by forwarders, and if Maersk does it, it would use its Damco forwarding division. DHL says by 2O2O trains from China would use 3-corridors: north through Russia, central through Kazakhstan, and south through Pakistan. Giant Swiss forwarder Kuehne +Nagel announced a strategic expansion to its China-Europe service and is offering shipments from northern China, Japan, South Korea, and southeast Asia to locations in Europe.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OL8 "Tracking limits of rail threat" pp. 18 & 20, Google.com: china's proposed new silk roads L-korea, and Google.com: kuehne + nagel-wikpedia

L.2.6.2 Eurasia Routes: China-Europe-and lndia trade corridor

1. rail shipments, on Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway. Shipments would be sent via rail to Turkmenbashi before being loaded onto a ship for transit to Baku, Azerbaijan, to the Georgian Ports of Batumi and Poti, for shipping across the Black Sea to Romania, where the corridor terminates. The lack of sea access causes forces many Chinese shippers from the northwest parts of the country to transport their cargo 3,000-km to the east coast of the country for loading onto ships bound for Europe.

The value of shipments of Chinese cargo of S15E9/yr has been successful, says the Chinese Ministry of Economy. Now 93% of the 15E6 to L7E6-TEUs from China to Europe moves by sea with a 7% split between air and rail. Redirecting goods would enable shippers in Western China to reduce transit times by half as TRACECA would have a transit time of 20-25-days to Europe, compared to 40 to 45 for ocean shipping from China's east coast, that does not include transit time of moving goods from the interior to the coast. The Western Chinese-Western Europe corridor opened in2OO7, is 1-,000-km shorter than TRACECA and does not rely on ocean shipping for any leg of its journey, as the cargo goes by the Trans-Siberian Railway in the Russian border town of Orenbury, for shipment into Europe. lt also has fewer customs borders, as Russia and Kazakhstan are part of the Euras¡an Customs Union-meaning only 2-borders to cross-that between China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the E.U. The TRACECA corridor will have double that amount-up to 8, depending on the routing. Pricing between the 2-routes is about the same-55,000 to S5,500/container for the Western China-Western Europe corridor.

The cost of container cargo transport for the lndia to Russia and the E.U., should decline up to 30% compared to the traditional trade route through the Suez Canal if the lnternational North-South Transport Corridor-INSTC-delivers the benefits officials expect when the largely rail routes opens in 2018. The INSTC is a 4,474-mi multi-mode network of ship, rail, and roads, for transporting freight across lndia, lran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. Th launch of the route was possible only after the lifting of sanctions against lran by the lnternational Community. ln its lst-stage, the new route will be able to transport 5-mt of cargo/yr-increasing to L0.0E6-mt/yr. Russia says the INSTC's route can handle 25E6 to 26E6-mt/yr, link Mumbaiwith St Petersburg, and will reduce the lndia to Russia cargo transport time from 35-days to l7-days. After it reaches Russia, it will be transported to Europe and the Nordic states by various routes. The Federation of Freight Forwarders Association, in lndia says the route is 40% shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal. The lndia Chamber of Commerce will guarantee compensation in the event of cargo delivery failure to its final customs. The new route could be 30 to 35% cheaper than the Suez Canal route. FM Logistics Russia, part of the French transport group FM Logistics say, with favorable conditions the new route will be able to compete with air transportation. The Russian Union of lndustrialists and Entrepreneurs said, land transit on the route will grow among shippers moving freight from lndia to Russia and the E.U. in the absence of anti-lranian sanctions, and a cheap ruble, that makes Russian cargo services more completive. ln addition, the new corridor is an alternative to the Strait of Malacca for Chinese shippers in the event of deuteriation in relations with South Asian countries, it would be more advantages for China's shippers to use the INSTC cargo route, but in the absence of direct railservice between Russia and lran it would have major short comings.

2 - ;:, ,"

xl'Ðn

Guangzlros æõnrt6n0 colwb

Ref: The iournal of Commerce, January 22,2018 pp.22-24 and Google.com: china's one belt one road regional economic integration initiative wikipedia

2.0 Port and Military lssues

2.L Ports

A short description of 12-U.S. ports of: South Louisiana-largest tonnage port-along 54-mi of the Mississippi River; Houston-largest for foreign water borne tonnage; New York-New Jersey-gateway to one of the most affluent consumer markets in the World; New Orleans-imports of iron and steel, exports of chemicals, animal, and vegetable products; Beaumont-with 3.0E6-tons of cargo in 2OL7; Corpus Christi-energy port of the America's; Long Beach-gateway for the Trans-Pacific trade; Baton Rouge-lower Mississippi River port; Los Angeles-with further growth in intermodal and terminal velocity; Mobile-that serves Post-Panamax containers and general, rof ro, bulk, refrigerated, and project cargos; Baltimore-handles TEUs, general cargos of cars, farm and construction machinery, and breakbulk; and Philadelphia [PhilaPort]-imports motorvehicles, oil, and TEUs.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 18-24

2.1.1 Container Ships

Cosco Shipping will defer delivery of 10-ultra-large container vessels to 20L9. With the deferrals the total new container ship capacity due for delivery in 2018 is expected to reach 1.5E6-TEUs-with more than 50% with ships capacity from L4E3 to 2LE3-TEU. ln addition to the LO-Cosco vessels-6-in the L9E3 to 21E3-TEU range, Yang Ming has deployed 3-1-4E3-TEU ships it would have taken in 2018. Shipping capacity has an impact on freight rate levels, as well as supply-demand does. The high level of supply coming on line in 2018 is set to exceed demand, depressing rates, says HIS Markit. Volume growth on the Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean route will increase 4.5 to 4.9%ocompared to 2Ot7.The global container fleet is expected to grow faster, even after scrapping is accounted for, and 25% of the capacity is delayed. Cosco Shipping has 27-vessels being delivered between January 2018 and December 20L9, with 17 in the 20E3 to 21E3-TEU Class for the Asia-Europe trade, OOCL-now acquired by Cosco, has 1- 21E3-TEU left to be delivered, of its 6-ordered. The January surge in vessel deliveries of 250E3-TEUs will be followed in January-April 2018 by ships with total capacity of 790E3-TEUs to join the world fleet between February and May 2018, in time for upgrades to 2M, Ocean, and The alliances, and will trigger a cascade of smaller ships into secondary trade lanes, such as the South America, the lndian subcontinent, and intra-Asia routes.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2018 pp. 6

3 . Surplus capacity in the market and demand growth is unlikely to match supply conditions, appears to have placed a restraining hand on the Asia Europe continent routes, after a profitable-not seen since 2OO0,2Ot7. Contracts on the Asia-Europe/Mediterranean trades, run from January 1to December 3L, 20L8, with rates of 5770/TEU for the whole of Asia to the whole of Europe, well below the Shanghai container Freight lndex sport rate from China to Northern Europe, that reached S888/TEU on January 5, 2018.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 6-7

. Colonel's lsland Terminal in Brunswick, GA has 3-on terminal auto processors, including international auto processing, Mercedes-Benz USA, Vehicle Services Americas, 60E3-vehicle parking spaces, and will add 30E3-more in December 2017 with plans for 60E3-more, for a total of L50E3-spaces, and bring the throughput capacity to 1.4E6-vehicles. They have a customer base of 20-automotive manufactures as well as industrial and agricultural equipment manufacture's, and 9-steamship lines call the auto-port. lt also has rail and road networks to l-95, l-16, and l-L0 within an hour's drive.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 36-37

. The Classification Society Bureau-Veritas has signed a contract agreement to class all 9-of CMA CGM's 2283-TEU, dual-fuelcontainer ships. Allwill be built to BV Class rules, under BV's new build supervision, be the world's largest LNG-fueled container ships, and most environmentally friendly. Benefits of LNG includes 25% less COz,99% less sulfur,99% less PMz.s, and 85% less, sulfur emissions. The contract wâs signed by China State Shipbuilding Corp. and the shipyards: Jiangnan Changxing Shipbuilding Co. Ltd., and Shanghai Jiangnan Changxing Heavy lndustries Co. Ltd., who are building them. Delivery is for 2020 and eachshipwillfeatureaWinGO L2x92 DFslow-speeddual fuel engine-withGTTdesigningeachof the ships LNG fuel tanks and TOTAL will be suppling LNG for the ships.

Ref: Marine Log, December 201-7 pp. 8

. Piracy attacks are down from 2016 says the lCC, lnternational Maritime Bureau-lMB-. IMB reported a Thai product tanker was attacked off Pulau Yu, Malaysia in early September 20t7,but the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency apprehended l-O-hijackers and the ship was escorted to a near-by port. Attacks between January-September 2017 were about 120 from 185 in 2013 and 190 in 20L5. Most attacks had the vessels boarded and there were S-hijacks in the L't 9-month s of 2OL7 , with 121-incidents and 8O-crew members taken hostage, 49-kidnapped, 3-injured, and 2-killed. There were 2O-offshore rigs in the GOM in 2OI7.

Ref: Marine Log, January 20L8 pp.4

2.1.L.2 CNG, LNG, LPG, and Articulated Tug and Barge-ATBs-

Melville, NY-based Bouchard Transport Co. celebrated its 100th-anniversity of providing safe, reliable transport of petroleum products in the Jones Act trade. The company stared in 1916 with an act of heroism before the U.S. entered WW l, when Captain Fred Bouchard witnessed the infamous Black Tom Explosion. German saboteurs had set fire to 1,000-tons of WW I munitions on the Black Tom pier in Jersey City, NJ. The munitions were to be shipped to Germany's enemies-Britain, France, and Russia. Captain Bouchard helped rescue the 400-ton Tijoca Rio and the wooden schooner, George W. Elezy.

Ref: Martine Log, January 20L8 pp. 10

4 . The Classification Society ABS granted approval in principle for a new Very Large Ethane Carrier-VLEC-concept developed by China's Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group Co. Ltd., a member of the China State Shipbuilding Corp.-CSSC-. This will expand the infrastructure to move efficient transportation to get products to market, says ABS vice President for Global Solution's-Patrick Janssens. The VLEC is equipped with a specialized membrane cargo containment system suited to carry liquid gas cargos such as ethane and propane. lt has a minimum cargo temperature of -94oC that supports a low cargo boil-off rate, and includes multiple cargo re-liquefaction lines to liquefy vapor gas, a cargo handling system that maintains a stable tank pressure, and a Selective Catalytic Reduction-SCR-system that supports compliance with MARPOL Tier lll and USCG requirements, for non-U.S.-Flag vessels operating in the U.S.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 12

2.1..1..4 Reefer

Savannah's gateway for chilled cargo will connect to Atlanta and other major markets for fresh produce and refrigerated imports. ln 2015 Peru under a U.S. Department of Agriculture pilot program, started moving grapes and citrus through Savannah with a t7-day shipping time, and they were chilled to remove potential pest and pesticides issues. The port has 104-cargo racks and 738-plug-ins to containers on chassis. At 24-container slots/rack, it adds up to 3,234-chilled containers at a time. Savannah also serves Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis with services to l-95 and l-L6, port terminal connections to CSX and Norfolk Southern rail railroads, that provides overnight service to GA, AL, FL, NC, and SC.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp. 38-40

2.1-.2 Cruise Ships

Questions and answers with Capt. James C. Desimone, CEO of Staten lsland Ferry. The agency has been in operation for more than a century with its bright orange fleet, making more than 40,200- trips/yr to and from Staten lsland with 24E6-passengers/yr across the 5.2-mi stretch of New York Harbor.

Ref: Marine Log, January 20L8 pp. 15-L7

. St. John's Ship Building, Palatka, FL won the contract to build 2-3O-vehicle ferries for Fisher lsland Ferry for a design by Elliott Bay Design Group-EBDG-, Seattle, WA with Naval architects DeJong & Lebet, lnc. Jacksonville, FL that are performing production design for the project. The 2-doubble-ended ferries will be delivered in 2OL9-as a high-end yacht finish, vehicle capacity of 30, and passenger capacity of l'50, propulsion power from EPA Tier 3-compliant Caterpillar CL8 main diesel engines that will drive Hundested propellers to service Fisher lsland, Fl-the former winter estate of the William K. Vanderbilt family. The contract follows the completion of 8-4,200-hp tugs for Vane Brothers, a 200-ft, Z-drive landing craft, that transports freight for the Caribbean and 17-barges in 201.7. EBDG was also chosen to design a new vehicle ferry for Miller Boat Line. Their current fleet provider, provides a vital connection between the mainland at Catawba Point in OH, to South Bass lsland and Middle Bass lsland in Lake Erie. ln October 2017 Potomac Riverboat launched its new water taxi serving routes between The Wharf in Washington D.C., Georgetown, and Old Alexandria to carry 3OOE3-passengers/yr to a new development in the city called The Wharf, that conta¡ns 3.0E6-ft2 of residential, office, hotel, retail, cultural, and public spaces, including water front parks, promenades, piers, and docks, says Mayor Bowser. 2-taxis were delivered in 2017 by

5 Metal Shark, Franklin, LA. The 88-ft, 149-passenger aluminum catamarans were designed by BMT Designs and Planners, and BMT Nigel Gee, to meet USCG Subchapter T certification. Propulsion will be 2-U.S. EPA Tier-3 compliant Scania D113 081M main diesel engines with 500-hp at L,800-rpm and other taxies will be delivered in 2018. The ship yard is also building ferries for NYC Ferry.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 29-30 and Goolgle.com: Fisher lsland, video

2.1.4 U.S.

A nearly 40% hike over the last 6-years in average lease rates for warehousing close to the Port of NY-NJ, pushed rates to some $10.00/ft2, raising questions of the ports ability to handle rising container volume growth. Competition for space is being taken to the U.S. Federal Marine Commission and a plan to move non-port related businesses out of the immediate port area is pending. Rates for areas around the port are from 55.41,/ft in2oI2 to s6.37/ft2 in 2016 says CBRE. ln the 3',d-Q-20l7 it was up to s7.55/ft2, and some areas are getting 5t2.O\/ft2. Many urban ports have the same problems and bigger ships will make it worst. The price for failing to adjust to that shift could be congestion, delays, and shippers using other ports. The Port of NY-NJ also had to raise the Bayonne Bridge that was completed in June 2OL7 to allow the Mega-ships into terminals from the expanded 3'd-set of locks of the Panama Canal in 20L6. U.S. ports are turning some of the priciest properties into logistics hubs, container dray-off yards, and chassis storage facilities, providing that BCO and equipment providers will pay top dollar to reduce drayage and equipment repositioning costs.

Construction will begin on the lslphase of a transloading and logistics hub on the 360-acre Army base in the Port of Oakland. Prolosis in 2OI7 started construction of a 3-story, 590E3-ft2 distribution warehouse 2-mi from the Port of Seattle. The Port of Los Angles is moving forward with redevelopment of a LL7-acre site formally used as a coal-export facility. BCOs must balance the higher cost of warehouse space to a seaport with the longer transit times and lease rates that are lower.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 10-14

2.L.4.2 Drayage Truck lssues

Using predictive analytics, the Port of Montreal in 2018 will alert drayage drivers when it looks as if truck turn times will be long and use data collected on terminal gate movements to lessen the impact of rail switching on trucks. The port and city will also use data collected by radio-frequency identification-RFID-and license plate reading technology to manage traffic signals, improving truck and passenger traffic fluidity. They have been able to monitor their S-terminals and truck turn times in real time since September 2016. The predictive analysis will use the Trucking PORTaI application to advise drivers. Some 2,500-trucks enter the port daily, 1,700-haul containers, and cargo moved by truck vrs rail flipped from a ratio of 45:55 to 55:45 in the last decade. Port volume is up 6% to 1.5E6-TEU in 20L7. The average truck turn time declined from 48-min in 2016 to 43-min in 2017-the time when the truck enters the common entry portal where the RFID tags are read and exit's the facility, having dropped off a container and picked up another.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp. 4

6 40, and Wal-Mart and Sysco are following with orders of L5 and 50 respectively. PepsiCo reserved 1-00 in December 2OL7 , aswell as Schneider National and J.B. Hunt Transport Services that uses drayage and less- than-truckload flats ordered an undisclosed number of trucks and Dependable Supply Chain Services in Los Angles, ordered 15-electric trucks. The excitement is over fuel savings with diesel in CA, with the states raising the diesel excise tax to 36Ç/gal-a 2O%/gal increase. The trucks are expected for delivery by 2019. Truckers have also been converting their trucks to natural gas to reduce carbon emissions by 30%. The electric trucks can carry an 80E3-lb load 300-to 500-mi between charges, and autonomous technology is also available.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,20L8 pp. 30

2.1..6 Maintenance Operations

ln 2020 the Georgia Ports Authority will receive 6-Neo-Panamex ship-to-shore cranes, a 573E6 investment, that is in addition to a previous order of 4-craines to be operational as early as 2018. The 1-0- additional cranes will bring the Port of Savanah's total cranes to 36-unmatched by any other terminal in North America. The fleet of cranes will allow the port to move 1,300-containers/hr across a single dock for unmatched efficiency and reach 22-containers wide. The cranes were designed by Konecrains of Finland and operate with 1-0,000-ft of contiguous berth space. The Garden City terminal has seen a 43% increase in the number of vessels carrying 8E3-TEUs. The Savannah Harbor's recent deepening helped to service the world's larger ships and the Panama Canal's ability to accommodate vessels of L4E3-TEUs.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 32-33

. Chesapeake Shipbuilding Corp. signed an agreement with Vane Brothers for the design and construction of 4-new Subchapter M-compliant push tugs-now numbering up to 20, for Vane Brothers, by Chesapeake since 2007. The 4-3,000-tugs will be sister vessels, powered by 2-Caterpillar 3512 main engines, and each tug will accommodate up to 7-crewmembers with large, modern private and semi-private quarters with delivery by 20L9.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 1-1-

. Dutch towing company Kotug is developing new technology to its operations, as it has been doing since L911. They developed the Rotortug-a tug with a triangular propulsion configuration for improved safety; and the E-Kotug-a hybrid propulsion version of the Rorortug. lt won an award for its Zero-Emissions Heat Recovery System that recycles the cooling-water heat from the main engines and stores it in a small latent- heat [at constant temperature-like melting a substance] buffer, that ¡s used for climate control and to keep the engines warm, which had been derived from electrical shore power at a high cost. They will now use drone technology to make towing operations safer and use a more efficient way to connect the towline to an assisted vessel, that has been a worker safety issues in the past.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 13

. Spain's Gondan Shipbuilding will feature the first vessel in operation with a Wärtsilä HY hybrid power solution that uses 2-Wärtsilä 26-engines, energy storage system-ESS-with batteries, and the power distribution train to power a tug for ship assist with a bollard pull of up to 55-tons on electric mode and 9o-tons on 2-main engines in diesel mechanical mode. A bollard pull of 100-tons will be available in boost mode. Wärtsilä will also provide the tugs integrated automation and alarm system. Access to onshore

7 electrical connection will give the tug the flexibility to recharge the ESS while the vessel is berthed. The tug is being built for the Port of Luleå, Sweden, will operate on the Gulf of Bothnia which freezes over during the winter, so the tug was designed to break l-m of ice at 3-knots. Delivery is for 201-9.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 32

2.7.6.11ce-breakers

As the ice recedes at the poles more and more commercial shipping activity is venturing into the Arctic and Antarctic regions, that includes Merchant ships sailing through the Northern Sea routes, as well as expedition cruise ships. There is a global national race to stake claims to the polar region's rich oil and gas resources. S-shipping groups were awarded contracts to deliver heavy polar icebreaker design studies and analysis for the U.S. Coast Guard because there is only one operational ship left and the 2nd is being cannibalized for spare parts, as it has reached its design-life and is falling apart.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 2

. On December 12,2017 Present Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act-H'R. 2810 for FY-2018 making official-the U.S. will make it the official policy of the U.S. to achieve the Navy's long- sought-after goal of the 355-ship battle fleet, under the Secur¡ng the Homeland by lncreasing our Power Subcommittee. on the Seas -SHIPS-Act" by Sen. Roger Wicker R-MS, Chairman of the Senate Seapower The NDAA obligates S1L.39E9 from funds appropriated for shipbuilding and conversion, to the aircraft carrier CVN-79 and S12.568E9 for follow-on ships in the Gerald R. Ford CVN-78 Class. The NDAA also authorizes procurement of a heavy Polar Class icebreaker and "innovative acquisition practices" to reduce costs and accelerate the schedule of procurement to produce multiple icebreakers. The NDAA also authorizes procurement contracts for up to 1S-Arleigh Burke Class IFlight lll] destroyers and up to L3- virginia Class attack submarines, and a LPD-30 amphibious transport dock ship.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 14

. With shrinking polar ice caps, the need for ice-breakers willfacilitate merchant ships making use of the shorter Northern Sea route through the Arctic, more expedition cruise ships on the route, and oil and natural gas resources becoming accessible with confrontations over national territorial claims. The U.S. is hopelessly playing catch-up. Russia has a clear dominance with the world's largest icebreaker fleet of 46- vessels in service, LL-under construction, and 4-others planned. Canada has 7-ice-breakers with 2-under construction and 5-planned. Finland-home to Aker Arctic which specializes in ice-technology, has LO-ice- breakers and has designed them for Russia, Canada, and China. Sweden has a fleet of 7-with 3-more in planning. The U.S. has S-ice-breakers with 3-in planning stage. China has 3-ice-breakers-2-delivered in 20L6 and another under construction. The U.S. has not built an icebreaker in 4O-years. The U.S. Coast Guard's tally of 5-U.S. ice-breakers consists of: 2-L970s heavy polar icebreakers-the Polar Star and Polar Sea; l-medium polar ice-breaker-the Healy that is used for research in the Artic; the Palmer that is used for research in the Antarctic; and the Aiviq, used by Royal Dutch Shell that is now leased to Canada.

The U.S. Coast Guard is in an analyze/select phase of a heavy polar ice-breaker acquisition program that is expected to begin construction in 2020. The Coast Guard wants: to break through 6 to 8-ft of ice at 3- knots threshold or objective respectively; through ridged ice of 2l-ft; the ability to operate without replenishment for 80 to 21-days respectively; ability to exchange voice and data with DHS, Coast Guard, Defense Department units, and others; operate 3,300 to 4,050-hr/yr respectively; an operational

8 availability percentage time of 85 to 92% respectively; space and weight allowance for accommodating a communicated work space or an installed communication workspace respectively; meet environmental standards; and improved ship control and modern human habitability. Fincantieri Marine Group-FMG-subsidiary of parent Fincantieri-based in ltaly, teamed with Philly Shipyard, Philadelphia, PA with Vard-another Fincantieri company, to develop a base-line icebreaker design, cost estimate, and production schedule. The USCG is conducting modal testing with the National Research Council of Canada and the U.S. Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division. Estimates for costs of an ice-breaker are in the range of S1.0E9.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 26-28and Google.com: northern sea route

2.1.7 Logistics lssues

Strengthening economics, e-commerce, and restocking are responsible for a global environment that saw a cargo demand that outpaced supply by more than 6%-points for all 4-quarters of 2017, and rose by 15% compared to 20!6, are expected to rise an additionalg%in 20L8. Airline capacity is tight, customers are scrambling for space, and expect to see higher rates.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp.8

. Maersk Line in 2017 started putting pressure on forwarders by challenging named account rates and shorting the duration of available rates. The strategy could be used to push the world's largest container carrier to build its direct customer business, as part of its overreaching transport and logistics strategy that involves "integrating" the supply chain by presenting it as an end-to-end solution. Maersk is trying to limit abuse of named account rates, as part of an effort to prioritize profitability, over market share. lt also could be evidence that the market strength of carriers is improving-giving them the ability to address long-standing practice of the forwarders ability to make money and market share, but carriers who provide the underlying capacity have not shared in the spoils. Non-vessel-operating carriers increased their market share of the U.S. imports from Asia To 42.6% in 2016, lrom 29% in 2006, says Piers, and was 43.L% in the lst-Q-2017. ln the so-called named accounts, the forwarders disclose the identity of its shipper to the carrier, in return for the carrier agreeing to provide a disconnected contract rate applicable to that shipper only. The underlying shippers name is not disclosed on the bill of lading, the carrier must trust it is really the named accounts cargo under the preferential rate. Forwards have made large profits by selling high spot rates to shippers and shipping goods under a lower named account rate.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,zOLg pp. L5-L6

. Georgia's logistics infrastructure is connecting air, sea, and land transportation services. lt's deepwater ports offer flexibility and market reach with direct interstate connections on terminal rail, and the most container ship services of any East Coast port, with its current-36-vessel callers/wk. The Savannah market has 46E6-ft2 of industrial space, including all major big retailers within minutes of the Garden City Terminal for better efficiency. The port has an additional space for 34E6-ft2 of more industrial space and they opened the Jimmy Deloach Connector in2OL6, providing direct truck access between the Garden City Terminal and l-95, that cuts 11-min from the drive between the port and the interstate' A rail expansion will double the Port of Savannah's rail lift capacity to 1.0E6-containers/yr, be completed by 2020 to accommodate 1-0.0E3-ft-long unit trains for Norfolk Southern and CSX Transportation on the East

9 Coasts 2-Class l-railroads, and they recently completed another construction of more than 5.0E6-ft2 of warehousing.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 34-35

2.1,.7.L E.U.-China Logistics and Supply

Containerized cargo on railroads between China and Europe has grown at a furious pace in the past year, driven by strong consumer demand, limited air-freight space, and the benefits of overland shipping for products made in Western China. As the cargo volume increases on the 3-main China-Europe Corridors, it is straining the available infrastructure and capacity at peak periods, and taxing trade documentation procedures to ensure smooth trade flows. Air cargo rates at 57.OO to S1-0'00/kg for 9,600- gm l2L,L64-lbl comes to some S64E3 for air transport, but the same shipment in a 4O-ft-container [FEU] would cost $3,000-via ocean and 54,000-via rail. The China Railway Express-umbrella for all rail services, were expected to grow tS%/yr for the next lO-years. The College of Europe says, by 2027 iI will reach 636E3-TEUs with cargo shifting from sea and air to rail routes on the Belt and Road lnitiative: E'U'-China Logistics and Supply Chain in Bruges, Belgium. At a forum, the University of Antwerp said, since 2011, S2.5E9 of goods have been shipped from China to Europe on the system.

Lack of infrastructure, especially in Russia and Kazakhstan, and the need for 3-track changes from standard-gauge in China to a wider-gage track in Russia, and back to standard-gage in Europe is a challenge. Production activities in China have been pushed inland because of rising labor costs and a part of the "Go West" campaign of the past, to booming cities of Chongqing in Western China with its Chongquing-Duissberg rail route that sends computers to Europe. The cargo is serviced by forwarder DB Schenker, the logistics arm of German rail operator Deutsche Bahn with CEO Jochen Thewes says, the volume is developing at breakneck speed in the 1't 6-months of 2OL7, transporting 40,600-TEUs, and is expected to reach 82E3-TEUs by the end of 20L8. Minglong Tang, head of the Western Region says less than i-% of the total China-Europe trade went by rail. Axle loads differ between Europe and Russia, the length of trains also differ, lending to containers building up at the border points, and limits to capacity of the rail routes was also discussed at the forum. Customs and maintenance issues are also problematic. Door to door via rail can be done in L6 to l8-days and ocean transport takes more than SO-days.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 "Growing pains: Peak season volume has tested China- Europe rail infrastructure." pp. 17-18 and Google.com: one belt one road initiative

. Weather conditions in the north U.S. and as far south as Tallahassee, FL are a challenge for shippers in inland transportation sectors, for truck and drayage capacity that is causing delays. Spikes in pricing and needs for heated truck trailers in snow and -30 oF polar vortex conditions are the issues.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2018 pp.9

. Growth in imports at the busiest U.S container ports for retail goods is expected to rise in January 2g18-shyrocketing in February, and easing in March and April, says the National Retail Federation, and Hackett Association. Global Port Tracker forecasts January volume to be 1.68E6-TEU, February 1.62E6- TEU, March 1.5E6-TEU, April 1-.66E6-TEU, and 1.73-TEU in May 20L8. The February-March numbers are skewed by the annual shutdown of Asian factories for the Lunar New Year on February 16,20L8.

Ref: The Journal of Commerce, January 22,201.8 pp. 7-8

1_0 2.2 Military

2.2.1 Ships and Planes

lngalls Shipbuilding, Pascagoula, MS, was awarded a S63E6 cost plus fixed fee contract modification forthe execution of USS Fitzgerald DDG 62 emergent repairand restoration. The ship collided with the Philippine-flagged ACX Crystal on June 17 ,2OL7 killing 7-salors. The USS Fitzgerald left Yokosuka Harbor, Japan December 9, 2017 aboard heavy-lift vessel MV Transshelf bound for the Pascagoula shipyard. The departure from Yokosuka was delayed a few days due to damage that occurred during the on-load process that involved lowering MV Transshelf in the water, towing the USS Fitzgerald onto a platform, and securing the ship for transport. The steel support structure punctured the Fitzgerald's hull, requiring repairs in port. Both ships returned to anchorage December 1 where final onload preparations continued until departure to ensure a safe transport.

Ref: Marine Log, January 201-8 pp. 9

2.2.2 lnher nationa I lssues

North Ksrea¡r Leaele¡ Kim Jorrg-lJn's fanrily tree

8ìñ tl.i{na, li¡lt IeÁdê;at N. KorBå

Jãñ8Srng-læk

Nlú¡oog'Nam {lmjotrg-Chul tim Rl 56Ì,Ja Xtôr

$Íur¡rr çetrv h$S*. M{kt{*¡!(¡

3.0 Water lssues

3.1

4.0 Pipelines and Tunnel lssues 4.I

5.0 Transportation Environmental lssues

5.1- Maritime Transportation Emissions

5.1.1Ship Engines

The 1'L2-pre-production units of MTU Marine's new marine LNG-gas engine have completed acceptance testing. The 16-cylinder series 4000 gas engines, each with 1,492-kW [200L-hp] will power the L't of 2-LNG-fueled RoPax catamarans being built at shipbuilder, Strategic Marines Vietnam shipyard. They are being built for Netherlands ferry operator Rederij Docksen for operation in the environmentally sensitive Wadden Sea in the North Sea. Engine tests were done with classification society Lloyd's Register for performance data, the fuel consumption, and the engines safety features, such as the emergency stop' The new 1.6-cylinder gas engine from MTU Marine will be available in 2018 in power ranges of 1,500 to

LL 2,000-kW. An 8-cylinder engine will follow with rated output of 750 to 1,000-kW. The engines are suited for tugboats, ferries, push-boats, and research vessels. The gas engine emits no soot particles [PMs], no sulfur oxides [SO*1, 90% less NO", and 1"0% less GHG.

Ref: Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 32 and Google.com: strategic marine naval shipyard in vung tau, vieltnam.

6.0 Transportat¡on Financial lssues

6.1 Ports

7.0 Airport and Global Space lssues

T.L Airport

7.1.2 Regulation

Article on the San Diego lnternational Airport-SD|A-noise and impact issues. Almost all of Bankers Hill is under the flight path of SDIA. Flight path safety concerns are issues of land-use planning in Bankers Hill and buildings need to incorporate noise attenuation measures and building height measures are restricted in some areas. There are 2-airport flight paths overlaying Bankers Hill-both under the jurisdiction of the FAA, and are subject to other federal, state, and local agency regulations. The l't flight path-the Main SDIA Flight Path, passes east-west over southern and central Bankers Hill and overlays some 67%o of its area south of Laurel street. The SDIA land Use Compatibility Plan-ALUCP is the policy document regulating this flight path, was adopted pursuant to state law, and is incorporated into San Diego's current General Plan, and requires the city to minimize excessive noise in sensitive area's and limits building heights under the Flight Path. Development projects need review by the local Airport Authority for consistency with the ALUCP and inconsistency will stop a project, unless it is overridden by a2f3'svote of the San Diego City Councilfinding that the project will protect public health, safety, and welfare; and minimize excessive noise and safety hazards in areas around the airport.

A separate city regulation thät also applies to the main flight path is the city's Airport Approach Overlay Zone-AAOZ-which creates a SQ-foot buffer zone under the FAA flight path. lt completely prohibits any new development intruding into the AAOZ buffer zone with no exception, except the first 30-ft from ground level. After its adoption in the L990s the city failed to enforce the AAOZ, but the community forced it to in 2004.

The 2nd flight path-the Small Plane Flight Path passes north-south and is used by small planes to land at the SDIA-which in most cases are blocked from using the main flight path. They arrive from north over 4th-6th Ave-turn west and land at the airport, only a couple of hundred feet above the ground, and residents in high buildings can wave to them when they pass-by. The path is part of the FAA L4 CFR Path 77 "horizontal surface" flight path that is regulated by the FAA and begins 160-170-ft above the ground in north Bankers Hill. Any project that impacts this FAA flight path is required to obtain a consistency determination from the FAA prior to being approved.

Ref: The San Diego Uptown News, January 26-Februaey 8, 2018 pp.12

8.0 Border and Culture lssues

T2 8.1 Border

8.2 Culture

Story of the Korean New Year celebrated on the 2nd-new Moon of the Winter Solstice on 2-6-18. Offices, shops, and restaurants closed. The tradition of Koreans is to return to their hometowns and visit with family for 3-days to pay homage to their ancestors. ln recent years some 36E6-people have-except for thousands who come from North Korea before the border closed in the 1950s, who can't. They register with the Joint Korean and U.S. forces guarding this side of the border and go to the Demilitarized Zone that splits Korea and look to the South at the top of the Goseong Unification Observatory, until the country is unified again.

Ref: The San Diego U-T 2-2O-L8 pp.A1& A8 and YouTube: goseong unification observatory

John G Wotzka 72O 4Th Ave San Diego, CA92LOI, Ph: 6L9-446-7690,[email protected]

L3 lmport-Export Port, Ship, Rail, and Shipping lssues

1.0 Ports

The Federal Maritime Commission is set to have only 3 of the S-commissior sports filled when they meet industry on a long-pending detention and demurrage issue in mid-January. 2-commissioners are resigning and if President Trump does not appoint new ones, there will be only 3 at the mid{anuary 16 & L7 , 2OL8 hearing over guidance on detention and demurrage fees, when labor disruptions, weather, and other factors out of their control, prevent timely pickup and return of containers. A question is, if they can set up a general rule of universal nationwide applicability on detention, demurrage, and per-diem provisions with service contracts and tariffs for the 250-marine terminals operators registered with the agency. 1s

. The U.S. maritime regulator FMC is proposing to make it easier for non-vessel-operating common carriers-NOVs-to provide negotiated rate and service arrangements to BCOs. lt is in response to a 20L5 petition by the National Customs Brokers and Forwarders Association of America.2l

. Articles on the best ships o12Ot7: smallship cruising willdebut in the U.S. with the Guilford, CT-based American Cruise Lines-American Constellation, that embodies the American spirit of exploration. The cruise ship is designed to navigate the countries inland waterways and Alaska and was built by Chesapeake Shipbuilding in MD. At 238.7-ft the ship can carry l7s-guests with 90-staterooms across 6-decks; The Harvest-a complex liquefied ammonia transport barge for the Jones Act trade; the VOS Start-the first subsea support walk-to-work vessel that was used by MHI Vestas Offshore Wind, for construction of the Walney Extension Offshore Wind Farm in the lrish Sea, that includes 87-turbines with total capacity of 659-MW, covers an area of i.45-km2, and is 100% owned by Ørsted; the 14,4L4-TEU, L,208-ft CMA CGM Theodore Roosevelt-that is 4-times as big as a U.S. football field, belongs to CMA CGM, passed under the Bayonne Bridge during a visit to the Port of New York-New Jersey, and is the largest ship to cross the Panama Canal's 3'd Set of Locks passage. lt was built by South Korea's Hyundai Heavy lndustries and operates in the South Atlantic Express Service; the world's first barge-based floating natural gas-FLNG-liquefaction and storage vessel-Caribbean FLING vessel delivered to Exmar, from China's Wison Offshore & Marine. The ship has a liquefication capacity of 500E3-tons/yr and LNG storage capacity of 16E3-m3. lt is the first time LNG has been produced onboard a floating facility as well as the first time a floating liquefication unit has completed gas-trial and performance test before sail-out. The FLNG will reduce t¡me-to-market, by providing floating liquefaction and storage in a cost-efficient and flexible way to gas fields onshore and offshore eliminating the need for large infrastructure on land. The Caribbean FLNG was slated to work off Colombia, but Pacific Exploration & Production cancelled the project and the ship is now expected to be used for an lranian export project; the Salish ORCA, built by Poland's Remontowa Ship-Building, the first of 3-natural gas-fueled ferries for BC Ferries, that reduced GHG emissions by 15 to 25yo, SO* by over 85%, NO* by 5O%, and nearly eliminated PMs. The ship is powered by Wärtsilä 8L20DF engines. Classed by Lloyd's Register; The Captain Brian A. McAllister-built by Horizon Shipbuilding of Bayou La Batre, AL, the first in a series of new Z-drive escort/rescue tugs being built for New York-headquartered McAllister Towing & Transportation Co., lnc. The tug is powered by 4-compliant Caterpillar 35L6E engines with twin Schottel SRP4000 FP units, and uses an SCR after-treatment system to reduce emissions. The harbor tug features state of-the-art remote fire monitors and ABS FlFi certified deluge systems and is Classed by ABS Maltese Cross A-1 Towing. 3e

1. 1.r. u.s.

A short description of 12-U.S. ports of: South Louisiana-largest tonnage port-along 54-mi of the Mississippi River; Houston-largest for foreign water borne tonnage; New York-New Jersey-gateway to one of the most affluent consumer markets in the World; New Orleans-imports of iron and steel, exports of chemicals, animal, and vegetable products; Beaumont-with 3.0E6-tons of cargo in 2OL7; Corpus Christi-energy port of the America's; Long Beach-gateway for the Trans-Pacific trade; Baton Rouge-lower Mississippi River port; Los Angeles-with further growth in intermodal and terminal velocity; Mobile-that serves Post-Panamax containers and general, ro/ro, bulk, refrigerated, and project cargos; Baltimore-handles TEUs, general cargos of cars, farm and construction machinery, and breakbulk; and Philadelphia IPhilaPort]-imports motorvehicles, oil, and TEUs. 63

o East Coast and Gulf Coast ports through October 2Ot7 , increased import volumes at,more than double the pace of West Coast ports, as carriers priced their all-water services from Asia with the coastal spot rate services from Asia, with the coastal spot rate spread falling S¿OO. total U.S. imports increased 5.5% in the 1'L10-months of 2OL7, imports through the East Coast increa sed 7Yo, the West Coast was only 3%. Carriers are leveraging the lower slot costs in the mega-ships that can now transit the Panama Canal's new 3'd-set of Locks, to favor the East Coast routing. 18

1.1.1- Gulf Coast

Standing 37t-ft high with boom up, Houston's 4-newest container cranes made a show when they arrived in Galveston Bay from China, are now being installed at the Barbours Cut Terminal showing the changing face of container shipping in the U.S. Gull and will span 22-rows of containers. Through the first 8-months of 2017 container volume through the Gulf ports jumped L4.5% yr over yr to 966,649-TEU with 30.9% increase, to and from Asia, and the 3-main ports are lobbying for more Asian services. Gulf ports have no shortage of exports, and it will grow with production of synthetic resins from TX and LA produced from low-cost natural gas feed stocks. Houston faces competition from intermodal routings to other coasts-especially to the West Coast via Dallas-Fort Worth. TX law makers voted to authorize heavy- haul corridors around Houston, allowing gross weight of up to 93E3-lb for 6-axle trucks and 100E3-lb for 7-axle trucks, and that will allow containers to be fully loaded with resins.

New Orleans is 2nd in resin exports through U.S. ports with the ports volume of full containers through August 2OL7 at272,831-IEUs. At the Port of Mobile, Wal-Mart is opening a 2.486-ft2 import distribution center 10-mi from the port with 3-current Asian services at Mobile. APM Terminals is expanding with 2- new super-post Panamax cranes already operating at the terminal. ln 2016 APM also added a SSO¡0 intermodal container transfer facility operated by APM terminals. The yards primary user is Canadian National Railway as a "third coast" for New Orleans and Mobile. s6

o The Port of Brownsville has 4OE3-acres of land, a few miles from the U.S.-Mexican border that is attracting LNG gas plants, a Sf .Sgg-pipeline, wind energy shipments, and prospects of a new steel mill. They want to dredge the port to 52-ft from 42-ft for offshore oil and gas rigs, and widen it for LNG carriers.l

. The Florida East Coast Railway-FECR-on November 9,2OL7 partnership with the National Gas for High Horsepower Summit rolled out it's 24-unit fleet of LNG fueled locomotives with 12-pairs of GE ES44C4's with a purpose-built chart industries fuel tender in between, at Bowden Yard, Jacksonville. They are also the first railroad to haul LNG as a commodity, under a FRA waver. Raven Transport, a trucking subsidiary

2 of Florida East Coast lndustries, also uses LNG and converted 44% of its fleet to LNG. LNG has been tested as a locomotive fuel for some 2S-years and is still under evaluation by several Class I RRs, including BNSF. FECR operates solely on the Jacksonville-Miami main line. The EPA Tier 3-compliant locomotives look the same as the GE-ES44Cs, but their GEVO prime-movers were retrofitted by GE with its next-Fuel'" Natural Gas Retrofit Kits enable locomotives to operate with dual duel capabilities with 80% gas substitution as well as L00% diesel. The fuel tender consists of a cryogenic tank permanently mounted in a railcar that looks like an intermodal car with a double-lined construction, tank design with a massive protective frame.

L.1.2 West Coast

The ILWU is starting to organize its Marine Clerks Division at APL and other terminals, says a November L7 newsletter. Employers at the l2-container terminals in LA-LB, consider the moves to be a major move to lead a loss of management supervisory control, of container terminals on the West Coast-ILWU superintendents will be supervising ILWU marine clerks or longshoremen. 1a o East Coast and Gulf Coast ports through October 2017, increased import volumes at more than double the pace of West Coast ports, as carriers priced their all-water services from Asia with the coastal spot rate services from Asia, with the coastal spot rate spread falling S¿OO. fotal U.S. imports increased 5.5% in the 1'LLO-months of 2OL7 , imports through the East Coast increa sed 7%o, the West Coast was only 3%. Carriers are leveraging the lower slot costs in the mega-ships that can now transit the Panama Canal's new 3'd-set of Locks, to favor the East Coast routing. 17 o The Port of San Diego has started a $Z+f O renovation project at its L0th-Ave. marine terminal on San Diego Bay. The upgrade will increase cargo from 1-.0E6-mt in2OL4 to 4.7-mt by 2035 and includes moving 2-warehouses, creating a laydown area for larger cargo; upgrade utilities, new lighting, and new pavement; new modular office space, utility enclosures, added restrooms; and on-dock rail improvements. Long-term envisions, 3-cargo nodes within the existing footprint of the terminal with a focus for project and break-bulk cargo, refrigerated containers Ireefers], and dry-bulk cargo. The Port received a 5fO.Oe6-grant from DOT under the Tiger program and Sl-4E6 from the port's budget. The plan has been in the works since the L950s, to replace the garbage dump and burn site. al

L.1.3 East Coast

1.2 lnternational

China's Ministry of Transport says the 55-km-long bridge to connect mainland China with Hong Kong will cost S1.5E9 more, for a total of S6.4E9. The project includes a bridge and tunnel and will link Hong Kong, Macau, and cities in China's Pearl River Delta Economic Hub. The project was approved in 2009. 13

. Container-leasing companies warned there could be container shortages by Spring 2018 with rising E.U. export demand and lingering effects of China's waterborne paint regulations. They are advising BCOs to assure they have space and discussions guarantees, equipment be in place. la o Article on improving productivity, loading and unloading TEUs at terminals, sees the sweet spot at 4,000 to 14,000-TEUs. Smaller ships-especially feeders tend to list and trim and the guides have issues. Mega- ships are harder to handle and the ships larger than L4E3-TEUs need higher spreader hoists and longer

3 trolley distances of L9 to 22-containers, rather than 13 to L9 on the 4-14E3-TEU ships. Analysis covers all port regions most size increases are in lndia, North America, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and North Europe.16 o Mexican railroad Ferromex says it will have completed a S34E6 project to enable 7.5-km [4.6-mi] of tunnel on its inter-Pacific rail line to haul double-stack container trains from the U.S. border to Mexico City by the end of 20L7. The majority of U.S. and Canadian network can handle double-stack trains. Most of its L0.0E3-km of rail on the intra-Pacific is done and strengthening platforms of many railcars so they can handle double-stack containers is done. Kansas City Southern de Mexico says 9O% of its tracks can handle double stacked trains. Mexican intermodal volume is up 2.5% from 20L6, while the U.S. is up 5.I% says AAR. The cost to send a container from Mexicali to Mexico City would be 52,000 by truck and $1,220 by train, with a time frame of 7-days by train and 14 by truck. Security could also cost 5500 to 5900 by using a truck. The 3-railroads in Mexico are Ferromex, Ferrosur, and Kansas City Southern. 2s o Canadian National's-CN-2nd-Q-2017 traffic grew to more volume than it could handle surging 1,t%lo a 3rd-Q-2017 tonnage record, while the other big five systems were up 2%. Much of the growth was centered in Western Canada, with volumes up as much as 20% between Edmonton, Alberta, and Chicago. lnternationallntermodaltrafficsoared 29%althe Portof Vancouverand36%atthe Portof Prince Rupert. Frac-sand for shale operations shipments were up L3O% and Canadian grain, coal, and potash tonnage 26 also rose. CN will boost capital spending by S10oE6 in 2018 to 5z.zrg in 2018.

. Canadian Pacific is expanding into OH with a partnership with a pair of Genesee and Wyoming regional railroads that cover the distance. The Chicago, Fort Wayne & Eastern Railroad and lndiana & Ohio Railway will provide CP with a route from Chicago to an intermodal terminal in Jeffersonville, OH, that is close to Columbus, Cincinnati, and Dayton. The 9O-acre terminal is owned and operated by corn and soybean produce producer, Bluegrass Farms of OH. 27

L.2.1 LNG Terminals

North-West Power Generation Co. Ltd.-NWPGCO-in Bangladesh announced plans to build a 3.600-GW regasification LNG combined cycle power plant in the Patuakhali district, built by Siemens AG following an earlier agreement to construct a similar 750 to 850-MW plant in Khuina. The country had 15.821-GW of generation capacity as of November 2Ot7 and they want 24.000-GW by 2021, says their Master Plan. Analysts say demand for electricity in Bangladesh will reach 30.000-GW by 2030 and they will import 25% of it from lndia in the next few years. Other projects in Bangladesh are: a 2.400-GW nuclear facility-VVER-1.200 [water-water energetic reactors] each producing the equalevent of 1.200- GW, by Russian Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, at Rooppur, a 1..320-GW coal-fired plant in Rampal, and the government also wants LO% of its power from renewables by 2020. NWPGCL's managing director signed a MOU with German Siemens's AG to build the Patuakhali facility because it has a port into which the LNG can be imported to-the upgraded port will be dredged to L6-m [52.5-ft] to enable large container ships to call there. NWPGCO has agreements to import t25E6-fÊ/d-equivalent of regasified LNG at the Bangladesh-lndia border through an offshore LNG terminal from lndia's West Bengal to the plant in Khulna, because current resources are depleting very fast. The 2-NWPGCL projects are in addition to a 500 to 600-MW regasification LNG combined cycle power plant being built in Matarbari, in Cox's Bazar, Chittagong, Bagladesh by Japan's MITSUI and the coal Power Generation Co. Bangladesh Ltd. NWPGCL has 3-operating power plants in Bangladesh that began operations in September 2Ot7; a225- MW natural gas-fired combined cycle plant in Sirajganj that began commercial operation in December

4 201-2 with 150-MW in December 201,2 and was upgraded to 225-MW in July 20t4, and a natural gas-fired combined cycle plant in Khulna that began operation with 150-MW opened in 2013 and was upgraded to 225-MW in June 2016. State owned Petrobangla [Bangladesh Oil, Gas, and Mineral Corp.] signed an agreement for the use of an LNG regasification terminal with a consortium of Hong Kong Shanghai Manjala Power Ltd., Malaysia's Global LNG, and Petronas LNG Ltd. The floating storage and fixed jetty-based regasification unit-FSRU-will be set up by the consortium, at Kutubdia lsland in Cox's Bazar. lt is the 3'd LNG floatingterminal planned to supply Bangladeshthrough Peteobangla:the l't byTX-based Excelerate Energy is a 500E6-ft3/d FSRU expected in service in April 2018. The 2nd terminal with similar capacity being built by Summit Group a Bangladesh company headquartered in Dhaka is expected on line by the end of 201-8. Each terminalwill import LNG from Switzerland, Oman, and Qatar.

1 Google.com: kutubdia upazila

2Google.com: bangladesh opt to make payra a deep-sea port

Ref: Power, December 2017 pp. L4

l-.3 Trans-shipment Terminals

Article on the Caribbean logistics sector driven by the expansion of the Panama Canal, liner consolidation, and destructive hurricanes. The region is important for its role as a transshipment crossroad for America's East-West and North-South routes adjacent to the Panama Canal. lnvestments to adapt to bigger ships may cause carriers and alliances to shuffle their services toward terminals where they own equity, that could cut some terminals off. The Port of NY-NJ's lifting of the Bayonne Bridge now allows the bigger ships to use all the terminals, and in between it allows them to do transshipments at the Caribbean operations at Panama's Colon Container Terminal. Some shifting has been done to Jamaica, damages to the ports in the Bahamas are forcing some shippers out over risk, and China's Cosco Shipping is moving into Panama's Colon Container Terminal and in Latin American terminals. 1e

¡ Article on the costly imbalance in northbound and southbound tractor-trailer passages, threatens to slow cross-border supply chains over the Mexico-U.S. border. High demand and increasing costs will push services to intermodal rail, and more transloading close to the U.S. border. There is also a need to improve U.S.-Mexican customs procedures. ln Laredo, TX only 2,000 of the 6,000-trucks transiting the border use the Free and Secure Trade-FAST-lane to speed traffic because of Mexican regulations. Border crossings 23 were up 7o/o in 2OI7 , says the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

5 1.4 Logistics lssues

A nearly 40% hike over the last 6-years in average lease rates for warehousing close to the Port of NY- NJ, pushed rates to some S10.00/ft2, raising questions of the ports ability to handle rising container volume growth. Competition for space is being taken to the U.S. Federal Marine Commission and a plan to move non-port related businesses out of the immediate port area is pending. Rates for areas around the port are from 55.4L/ff in2}r2to S6.37/f in 2016 says CBRE. ln the 3'd-Q-2Ot7 itwas up to S7.55/ft2, and some areas are getting SL2.00/ft2. Many urban ports have the same problems and bigger ships will make it worst. The price for failing to adjust to that shift could be congestion, delays, and shippers using other ports. The Port of NY-NJ also had to raise the Bayonne Bridge that was completed in June 20t7 To allow the Mega-ships into terminals from the expanded 3'd-set of locks of the Panama Canal in 2016. U.S. ports are turning some of the priciest properties into logistics hubs, container dray-off yards, and chassis storage facilities, providing that BCO and equipment providers will pay top dollar to reduce drayage and eq uipment repositioning costs.

Construction will begin on the lslphase of a transloading and logistics hub on the 360-acre Army base in the Port of Oakland. Prolosis in2OL7 started construction of a 3-story, 590E3-ft2 distribution warehouse 2-mi from the Port of Seattle. The Port of Los Angles is moving forward with redevelopment of a LL7-ace site formally used as a coal-export facility. BCOs must balance the higher cost of warehouse space to a seaport with the longer transit times and lease rates that are lower. s0

. Maersk Line in 20L7 started putting pressure on forwarders by challenging named account rates and shorting the duration of available rates. The strategy could be used to push the world's largest container carrier to build its direct customer business, as part of its overreaching transport and logistics strategy that involves "integrating" the supply chain by presenting it as an end-to-end solution. Maersk is trying to limit abuse of named account rates, as part of an effort to prioritize profitability, over market share. lt also could be evidence that the market strength of carriers is improving-giving them the ability to address long-standing practice of the forwarders ability to make money and market share, but carr¡ers who provide the underlying capacity have not shared in the spoils. Non-vessel-operating carriers increased their market share of the U.S. imports from Asia Lo 42.6% in 2016, from29% in 2006, says Piers, and was 43.L% in the 1't-Q-2017. ln the so-called named accounts, the forwarders disclose the identity of its shipper to the carrier, in return for the carrier agreeing to provide a disconnected contract rate applicable to that shipper only. The underlying shippers name is not disclosed on the bill of lading, the carrier has to trust it is really the named accounts cargo under the preferential rate. Forwards have made large profits by selling high spot rates to shippers and shipping goods under a lower named account rate. s1

. Georgia's logistics infrastructure is connecting air, sea, and land transportation services. lt's deepwater ports offer flexibility and market reach with direct interstate connections on terminal rail, and the most container ship services of any East Coast port, with its current-36-vessel callers/wk. The Savannah market has 46E6-ft2 of industrial space, including all major big retailers within minutes of the Garden City Terminal for better efficiency. The port has an additional space for 34E6-ft2 of more industrial space and they opened the Jimmy Deloach Connector in 2016, providing direct truck access between the Garden City Terminal and l-95, that cuts l-L-min from the drive between the port and the interstate. A rail expansion will double the Port of Savannah's rail lift capacity to 1.0E6-containers/yr, be completed by 2O20Io accommodate 10.0E3-ft-long unit trains for Norfolk Southern and CSX Transportation on the East

6 Coasts 2-Class l-railroads, and they recently completed another construction of more than 5.0E6-ft2 of warehousing. s3

2.0 Trade Routes

2.L Asia-North American

2.2 Asia-North Europe

90% ot vessels on the Asia-North Europe route will be more than 14E3TEU by 2020, compared to 5Yo, 6-years ago. As the fleet of new 18E3 to 22E3-TEU ships, the raising of the Bayonne Bridge in August 20L7 at the ports of NY-NJ, and the Panama Canal's 3'd set of locks handled its first 14,855-TEU CMA CGM Theodore Roosevelt that sailed from Asia to the U.S. East Coast, Sealntel Maritime says 50E3-TEU ships could be reality by 2068. Oslo-listed MPC Container Ships has raised funding to purchase 25-ships ranging from 996-TEU lo 2,824-TEU. The company is an offshoot of Hamburg-based MPC Capital and wants to acquire lOO-vessels-mainly German and will go for a New York listing in the future, says Ulf Holländer the CEO. China's Zhonggu shipping, COSCO Shipping, and Sinoteous ICSC teamed up to order 6-1,140-TEU vessels for river-sea operations and Zhongsu placed an order for 6-1,900-TEU units. 2

2.3 Asia-Mediterranean

2.4 Asia-Middle East

2.5 North Europe-North America

2.6 Australia-Far East

2.7 Asia-East Coast-South America

2.8 North Europe/Mediterra nean-East Coast-South America

2.9 North America-East Coast-South America

2.10 U.S. Jones Act

k&o-Èl.- hRk á Iú rq rq t, $ô n4' .a r{'r a) '* s,ü ÞRiù t¡k &re* ÞR¡*r,ù Jd¡¡?ñr rt ¡& rrb Þnf *ñ *(.6.¡b ¡¡futá Èit&Ib nq b, ü {d! 3¡ a¡.æ' R{eã¡ tu J!s' r¡( ls.ar hJqþ Rl* rth * ¡ú ñrù rrb |þã xrrd.) l''',"arb rr rà'.r cailh4 k*ke 16 g.*. uBh Nrd. ¡uavo d ,&s k. PR {* }b bkd . *-,hb"v,g¡¡ rslf ¡1<'çh ra¡ár å, çrì .n,àì FÈ,e ¡ ù

â(ù6urår/ ã lk &i6 !)b *,¡s ø16rt

PæRKOffi

hr'e PÊret,F -4 ¡-{t*r.l)ù ,'<+tt*<ñræ p',{qFkkúl6 ßrõñ r((hal

Thic Þhntn hr¡ I lnlznnr¡rn Â¡rthnr ic li¡onca¡l rrndar f'f'RV-ÇÀ 42

2.1L Norther Sea

7 "#*& _

|rtifrt

S*. lxo l*¡ l*¡

TL;- DL^+^ L,,l rñ1.-^..,Á ¡. ^¡,+L^,

3.0 Ship Types

3.L Container Ships

3.1.1 Alliances

3.1.1.1Ocean Alliance-CMA, CGM, COSCO, APL, and Evergreen

3.L.L.z THE Alliance-NYK Group, MOL, "K" Line, Hapag Lloyd, UASC, and Yang Ming

3.1.1.3 2M Alliance-Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Company

3.1.2 Sizes

IHS Markit forecasts demolitions of container ships will come in at 35L,065-TEUs that will result in7 .I% net-capacity growth of the global fleet, if no deliveries of the 78-Mega-ships of more than 10.0E3- TEUs, totaling 1..2E6-TEU that are delayed, and the fleet would expand 5.6%iÎ25%of deliveries are pushed back. Global container trade is expected to grow 4.9%in 2018 to 144E6-TEUs. 20

3.L.3 Types

3.1.3.1 Container Ships

Cosco Shipping will defer delivery of 10-ultra-large container vessels to 2019. With the deferrals the total new container ship capacity due for delivery in 2018 is expected to reach 1.5E6- TEUs-with more than 50% with ships capacity from 14E3 to 21E3-TEU. ln addition to the lO-Cosco vessels-6-in the 19E3 to 2lE3-TEU range, Yang Ming has deployed 3-14E3-TEU ships it would have taken in 2018. Shipping capacity has an impact on freight rate levels, as well as supply-demand does. The high level of supply coming on line in 20L8 is set to exceed demand, depressing rates, says HIS Markit. Volume growth on the Asia to North Europe and Mediterranean route will increase 4.5To 4.9% compared to2Ot7. The global container fleet is expected to grow faster, even after scrapping is accounted for, and 25Yo of the capacity is delayed. Cosco Shipping has 27-vessels being delivered between January 2018 and

8 December 2019, with 17 in the 20E3 to 2LE3-TEU Class for the Asia-Europe trade, OOCL-now acquired by Cosco, has L-21E3-TEU left to be delivered, of its 6-ordered. The January surge in vessel deliveries of 250E3-TEUs will be followed in January-April 2018 br¡ ships with total capacity of 790E3-TEUs to join the world fleet between February and May 2018, in time for upgrades to 2M, Ocean, and The alliances, and will trigger a cascade of smaller ships into secondary trade lanes, such as the South America, the lndian subcontinent, and intra-Asia routes. ae

3. 1.3. 1.1 U ltra-La rge-L4,s}t to 22,000-TEU

The Classification Society, Bureau Veritas has signed a contract agreement to class all 9 of CMA CGM's 22E3-TEU dual-fuel container ships. The all gas-fueled Ultra Large containerships will be built to BV class rules and under BV-new -build supervision. They will be the world's largest LNG- fueled container ships and among the most environmentally friendly. Benefits of LNG over heavy fuel oil include: 25% less CO2,99% less sulfur, 99% less PMz.s, and 85% less NO* emissions. The contract was signed by China State Shipping Corporation CSSC shipyards Jiangnan Changxing Shipbuilding Co., Ltd in Hudong Zhonghua and Shanghai Jiangnan Changxing Heavy lndustry Co., Ltd.-the yards building the ships. Delivery is projected for 2O2O and each ship will feature a WinGD L2 x 92DF slow-speed dual fuel engine-with GTT designing each of the ships LNG fuel tanks and TOTAL will be suppling LNG for the ships.3s

3.L.3.L.2 New Panamax or Neopanamax-10,000 to 14,500-TEU

3. 1-.3. 1-.3 Post Pa na max-5, 1.01 to 10,000-TE U

3.1.3.L.4 Panamax-2,001- to 5,L00-TEU

3.1.3.1.5 Feedermax-2,00L to 3,000-TEU

3.1.3.1.6 Feeder-1,001 to 2,000-TEU

3.1.3.1.7 Small Feeder- up to 1,000-TEU

3.L.3.2 Tankers

3.L.3.2.I Crude Oil

Philly Shipyard lnc. delivered American Pride-the 4th-next generation 50E3- dwt product tanker for American Petroleum Tankers-subsidiary of Kinder Morgan, lnc. The yard is currently building 2-3,600-TEU container ships for Matson Navigation Company, lnc. with deliveries in 201-8 and 2019. The delivery of the American Pride marks the conclusion to the ship yards plan of investing in 8-Jones Act product tankers with contract value of S1.0E9. They also have a Letter of lntent with TOTE Maritime for up to 4-new, cost-effective and environmentally friendly container ships for the Hawaii trade.36

3.L.3.2,2 LNG, CNG, LPG, CGL

Melville, NY-based Bouchard Transport Co. celebrated its l"O0th-anniversity of providing safe, reliable transport of petroleum products in the Jones Act trade. The company stared in 1-916 with an act of heroism before the U.S. entered WW l, when Captain Fred Bouchard witnessed the infamous Black Tom Explosion. German saboteurs had set fire to 1,000-tons of WW I munitions on the

9 Black Tom pier in Jersey City, NJ. The munitions were to be shipped to Germany's enemies-Britain, France, and Russia. Captain Bouchard helped rescue the 400-ton Tijoca Rio and the wooden schooner, George W. Elezy. 58

3.L.3.2.3 Articulated Tug and Barge-ATB-

2-Gulf coast shipyards will build the latest Articulated Tug Barge-ATB-unit for Bouchard Transportation Co. lnc., that began construction in2Ot2 and is expected fordelivery in 20L9. Thetugcomponentof theATBwillbeconstructed byVTHalterMarine lncin Msandthe bargecomponent will be constructed by Bollinger Shipyards in Amelia, LA. The tug will meet U.S. EPA Tier 4 requirements and be equipped with an lntercon Coupler system. The barge will have a 55E3-bbl capacity and be used to transport liquid petroleum products in the Jones Act Trade market. 3s

o Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp.-GLDD-in lL, took delivery of the articulated tug barge-ATB-hopper dredge Ellis lsland and tug Douglas B. Mackie, built by Eastern Shipbuilders, Panama City, FL. The Ellis lsland is the largest hopper dredge in the U.S. market. The Ellis lsland increases the U.S. commercialJones Act hopper fleet capacity with a carrying capacity of L5E3-yd3, and will meet the current and future U.S. ACE, state, and U.S. Port's deepening, coastal protection, coastal restoration, and maintenance dredging infrastructure demand. GLDD is one of the largest providers of dredging services in the U.S. and the only U.S. dredging company with significant international operations. 37

3.7.3.2.4 Floating Sto rage Regasificatio n U nits- FSR U - The Classification Society ABS granted approval in principle for a new Very Large Ethane Carrier-VlEC-concept developed by China's Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding Group Co. Ltd., a member of the China State Shipbuilding Corp.-CSSC-. This will expand the infrastructure to move efficient transportation to get products to market, says ABS vice President for Global Solution's-Patrick Janssens. The VLEC is equipped with a specialized membrane cargo containment system suited to carry liquid gas cargos such as ethane and propane. lt has a minimum cargo temperature of -94oC that supports a low cargo boil-off rate, and includes multiple cargo re-liquefaction lines to liquefy vapor gas, a cargo handling system that maintains a stable tank pressure, and a Selective Catalytic Reduction-SCR-system that supports compliance with MARPOL Tier lll and USCG requirements, for non-U.S.-Flag vessels operating in the U.S. 60

3. 1.3.3 Offshore Service Vessels-OSVs-

ln the Global Offshore Service Vessels-OSVs-market, SO%ó of the OSVs are operating in Asia and Australasia, West Africa, and the Middle East. Some L2%oare working in the North Sea, and 1.4% are in the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. ¡s the top OSV owning nation with L,417-OSVs, more than # 2- Singapore. There were L8-offshore rigs working the Gulf of Mexico-GOM-in 2017. OSVs on order are: Platform Supply Vessel-PSV--209, anchor handling supply vessel-AHTs--203, anchor handling tug-AHT--8, fast supply vessel-FSV--39, ocean tug-1-1, and emergency response and rescue vessel-ERRV --7 .34 3.1.3.3.L Platform Supply Vessel-PSV-

3.1.3.3.2 Anchor Handling Tug Supply vessel-AHTS-

3.1.3.3.3 Anchor Handling Tug vessel-AHT-

10 3.1.3.3.4 Fast Supply Vessel-FSV-

3.1.3.3.5 Ocean Tug

Chesapeake Shipbuilding Corp. signed an agreement with Vane Brothers for the design and construction of 4-new Subchapter M-compliant push tugs-now numbering up to 20, for Vane Brothers, by Chesapeake since 2007. The 4-3,000-tugs will be sister vessels, powered by 2-Caterpillar 3512 main engines, and each tug will accommodate up to 7-crewmembers with large, modern private and semi- private quarters with delivery by 2019. se

. Spain's Gondan Sh¡pbùilding will feature the first vessel in operation with a Wärtsilä HY hybrid power solution that uses 2-Wärtsilä 26-engines, energy storage system-ESS-with batteries, and the power distribution train to power a tug for ship assist with a bollard pull of up to 55-tons on electric mode and 9O-tons on 2-main engines in diesel mechanical mode. A bollard pull of 100-tons will be available in boost mode. Wärtsilä will also provide the tugs integrated automation and alarm system. Access to onshore electrical connection will give the tug the flexibility to recharge the ESS while the vessel is berthed. The tug is being built for the Port of Luleå, Sweden, will operate on the Gulf of Bothnia which freezes over during the winter, so the tug was designed to break 1-m of ice at 3-knots. Delivery is for 20L9. 67

3.L.3.3.6 Emergency Response and Rescue Vessel-ERRV-

Dutch towing company Kotug is developing new technology to its operations, as it has been doing since 19L1. They developed the Rotortug-a tug with a triangular propulsion configuration for improved safety; and the E-Kotug-a hybrid propulsion version of the Rorortug. lt won an award for its Zero-Emissions Heat Recovery System that recycles the cooling-water heat from the main engines and stores it in a small latent- heat [at constant temperature-like melting a substance] buffer, that is used for climate control and to keep the engines warm, which had been derived from electrical shore power at a high cost. They will now use drone technology to make towing operations safer and use a more efficient way to connect the towline to an assisted vessel, that has been a worker safety issues in the past.61

3.t.3.3.7lcebreakers

With shrinking polar ice caps, the need for ice-breakers will facilitate merchant ships making use of the shorter Northern Sea route through the Arctic, more expedition cruise ships on the route, and oil and natural gas resources becoming accessible with confrontations over national territorial claims. The U.S. is hopelessly playing catch-up. Russia has a clear dominance with the world's largest icebreaker fleet of 46- vessels in service, LL-under construction, and 4-others planned. Canada has 7-ice-breakers with 2-under construction and 5-planned. Finland-home to Aker Arctic which specializes in ice-technology, has lO-ice-breakers and has designed them for Russia, Canada, and China. Sweden has a fleet of 7-with 3-more in planning. The U.S. has S-ice-breakers with 3-in planning stage. China has 3-ice- breakers-2-delivered in 2016 and another under construction. The U.S. has not built an icebreaker in 40- years. The U.S. Coast Guard's tally of 5-U.S. ice-breakers consists o1:2-1970s heavy polar icebreakers-the Polar Star and Polar Sea; l-medium polar ice-breaker-the Healy that is used for research in the Artic; the Palmer that is used for research in the Antarctic; and the Aiviq, used by Royal Dutch Shell that is now leased to Canada.

LT The U.S. Coast Guard is in an analyze/select phase of a heavy polar ice-breaker acquisition program that is expected to begin construction in 2020. The Coast Guard wants: to break through 6 to 8-ft of ice at 3- knots threshold or objective respectively; through ridged ice of 2L-ft; the ability to operate without replenishment for 80 to 21-days respectively; ability to exchange voice and data with DHS, Coast Guard, Defense Department units, and others; operate 3,300 to 4,05}-hr/yr respectively; an operational availability percentage time of 85 to 92% respectively; space and weight allowance for accommodating a communicated work space or an installed communication workspace respectively; meet environmental standards; and improved ship control and modern human habitability. Fincantieri Marine Group-FMG-subsidiary of parent Fincantieri-based in ltaly, teamed with Philly Shipyard, Philadelphia, PA with Vard-another Fincantieri company, to develop a base-line icebreaker design, cost estimate, and production schedule. The USCG is conducting modal testing with the National Research Council of Canada and the U.S. Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division. Estimates for costs of an ice-breaker are in the range of S1.0E9. 64

3.L.3.4 Roll-on Roll-off [ConRo]

General Dynamics-NASCO started construction of the l'LLNG-ready Kamaloa-Class ConRo container ship, called Lurline and will be built for Matson Navigation Co., lnc. lt will feature a ballast water system, dual-fuel MAN 6G90ME-C10.5-Gl engine, have roll-on-roll-off capacity, and other features. NASSCO partnered with South Korea's DSEC to provide Matson with state of the art, design, and shipping technologies. The Jones Act qualified, Kanalo Class vessels are designed specifically for the Hawaii service. 37 Kanaloa is an ocean deity revered by the native Hawaiian culture. The 2nd ship will be named Matsonia.

3.L.4 Container Types

3.I.4.L 20-ft Equalevent U nits-TEUs-

3.1.4.2 40-ft Equa levent U nits-FEUs-

3.L.4.3 45-ft Equalevent Units-Jones Act Container-

3.L.4.4 Reefers

Savannah's gateway for chilled cargo will connect to Atlanta and other major markets for fresh produce and refrigerated imports. ln 2015 Peru under a U.S. Department of Agriculture pilot program, started moving grapes and citrus through Savannah with a L7-day shipping time, and they were chilled to remove potential pest and pesticides issues. The port has L04-cargo racks and 738-plug-ins to containers on chassis. At 24-container slots/rack, it adds up to 3,234-chilled containers at a time. Savannah also serves Atlanta, Charlotte, and Memphis with services to l-95 and l-L6, port terminal connections to CSX and Norfolk Southern rail railroads, that provides overnight service to GA, AL, FL, NC, and SC. ss

T2 3.2 Cruise Ships

3.3 Ferries

St. John's Ship Building, Palatka, FL won the contract to build 2-30-vehicle ferries for Fisher lsland Ferry for a design by Elliott Bay Design Group-EBDG-, Seattle, WA with Naval architects DeJong & Lebet, lnc. Jacksonville, FL that are performing production design for the project. The 2-doubble-ended ferries will be delivered in 2019-as a high-end yacht finish, vehicle capacity of 30, and passenger capacity of 150, propulsion power from EPA Tier 3-compliant Caterpillar C18 main diesel engines that will drive Hundested propellers to service Fisher lsland, Fl-the former winter estate of the William K. Vanderbilt family. The contract follows the completion of 8-4,200-hp tugs for Vane Brothers, a 200-ft, Z-drive landing craft, that transports freight for the Caribbean and L7-barges in 2017. EBDG was also chosen to design a new vehicle ferry for Miller Boat Line. Their current fleet provider, provides a vital connection between the mainland at Catawba Point in OH, to South Bass lsland and Middle Bass lsland in Lake Erie. ln October 2017 Potomac Riverboat launched its new water taxi serving routes between The Wharf in Washington D.C., Georgetown, and Old Alexandria to carry 30OE3-passengers/yr to a new development in the city called The Wharf, that contains 3.0E6-ft2 of residential, office, hotel, retail, cultural, and public spaces, including water front parks, promenades, piers, and docks, says Mayor Bowser. 2-taxis were delivered in 20L7 by Metal Shark, Franklin, LA. The 88-ft, 149-passenger aluminum catamarans were designed by BMT Designs and Planners, and BMT Nigel Gee, to meet USCG Subchapter T certification. Propulsion will be z-U.S. EPA Tier-3 compliant Scania DLL3 08LM main diesel engines with 500-hp at L,800-rpm and other taxies will be delivered in 201-8. The ship yard is also building ferries for NYC Ferry. 6s

3.3.1 U.S.

Elliott Bay Design Group was awarded a contract for a new passenger-vehicle ferry, for Ohio- based Miller Boat Line. lt will carry 600-passengers and 26-vehicle on its Lake Erie lslands Service. lt will have Tier 3 propulsion technology and be delivered in 2019. 38 o Questions and answers with Capt. James C. Desimone, CEO of Staten lsland Ferry. The agency has been in operation for more than a century with its bright orange fleet, making more than 40,200-trips/yr to and from Staten lsland with 24E6-passengers/yr across the 5.2-mi stretch of New York Harbor.62

3.3.2 lnternational

Damen Shipyards Group will build and deliver 2-"road" ferries for the government of Ontario, Canada to operate on Lake Ontario. They that will be built at the Damen shipyards Galati in Romania. Both ships will be hybrid-ready enabling the use of batteries when needed. They will be used to move people to and from Wolfe and Amherst lslands, generate local economic opportunities, and growth to benefit all residents. The ferries are expected to carry 1.0E6 passengers and 500E3-vehicles/yr between Wolfe lsland and Kingston, and 27O-passengers and 1-30E3-vehicles to and from Amherst lsland/yr. They will be delivered by the end of 2019 and 2O2O.37

. lncreasing automation and digitalization will have a profound impact on the way we live and work. A current trend that has emerged is the increasing interest in electrification for vehicles and vessels. ln 20L6 some 2E6-electric cars were sold worldwide compared to 92E6-combustion vehicles, but that will change as Asia, Europe, and the U.S. continue to tighten curbs in COz emissions to fight global warming. Securities firm UBS says 16.5% of cars will be electric by 2O25, fueled by the diesel demise in Europe, battery

13 technology advancements, and regulation in China and Europe. The shifts will also show up in rivers, lakes, harbors, and oceans. Electric propulsion on large commercial ocean-going ships is not yet practical, inland waterway towboats, harbor tugs, and passenger vessels make sense. Finland has its first fully electric newbuild car ferry-the Elektra, that is in operation with the Siemens BlueDrive Plus C propulsion system. The double-ended ferry serves as a vital connector between 2-Finish roadways on the 1.6-km route that takes LS-min to cross, gets a S-min quick supercharge at the dock via a Cavotec charging system before departing. s7

. The 1'L2-pre-production units of MTU Marine's new marine LNG-gas engine have completed acceptance testing. The 16-cylinder series 4000 gas engines, each with 1,492-kW [2001-hp] will power the 1't of 2- LNG-fueled RoPax catamarans being built at shipbuilder, Strategic Marines Vietnam shipyard. They are being built for Netherlands ferry operator Rederij Doeksen for operation in the environmentally sensitive Wadden Sea in the North Sea. Engine tests were done with classification society Lloyd's Register for performance data, the fuel consumption, and the engines safety features, such as the emergency stop. The new 16-cylinder gas engine from MTU Marine will be available in 201"8 in power ranges of 1,500 to 2,000-kW. An 8-cylinder engine will follow with rated output of 750 to 1,000-kW. The engines are suited for tugboats, ferries, push-boats, and research vessels. The gas engine emits no soot particles [PMs], no 66 sulfur oxides [SO"l, 90% less NO*, and 1-0% less GHG.

4.0 Shipping Canals

4.1 Panama Canal

Article on U.S. ports and the effect of the Panama Canal's 3'd set of locks, mega and ultra-large container vessels-ULCV- have on port operations. 3

4.2 Suez Canal

4.3 Nicaragua Canal 4.4 Arctic Route 4.5 China's 21-'t-Century Marine Silk Road Economic Belt

5.0 Port Terminal Rail lntermodal Connections

5.1 Terminal Rail lntermodal

Article on the Northeast logistics and how the Port of Long Beach, CA provides service to the Northeast U.S. with lOO-double-stack unit trains, that leave Long Beach every day for the Northeast. Rail service from Atlanta, GA also moves intermodal to the Northeast. a o The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey-PANYNJ-has proposed a $E.Zeg-operating budget and a 53.4E9-capaital budget for 2018. The capital budget proposal includes state-of-good repair work at tunnels, bridges, airports, PATH system, and investment in projects to replace aging facilities with modern infrastructure, to provide for future growth. Projects will include a ExpressRail intermodal center.e

. The Georgia Ports Authority on November L3 approved 542.27E6 as part of the ports St28f 6 Mega Rail Terminal project, that will double Savanah's on-dock rail capacity, to rapidly increase service to an arc of inland markets from Memphis to Chicago. Construction is projected to be complete by 2020. Total tonnage for all terminals was up 25% from 2.6E6 to 3.LE6-tons in October 2OI7. Break-bulk tonnage-lumber, steel, and autos, increased I4.7% with manufacturing and construction growth in the southeast. New pre-check lanes will reduce truck congestion and the Mega RailTerminal will reduce rail

t4 crossings. The Brunswick Colonel's lsland Terminal handled 56,492 auto's and machinery units in October 20L7, up zI%.s

. ln the E.U. Paris based Groupe EuroTunnel-GET-is now Getlink, to reflect dynamism of connection and exchange. GET was established in 1986 to finance, build, and operate the 31-mi Channel Tunnel that opened in 1994. Getlink has 4-brands: Eurotunnel for freight and passenger shuttle services through the Channel Tunnel, Europorte for rail freight operations in France, ElecLink for future electrical interconnector between France and Britain, and the CIFFCO, the European railway training center. 10

. Since the tunnel connecting Britain and France beneath the English Channel opened in 1994 more than 390E6-people and 390E6-mt of goods have made the 50-km subterranean trip. The Channel or chunnel- that is 3-separate tunnels-2-for rail traffic and 1-for maintenance, plays a major part ¡n the countries economics. The agreement was signed on2-12-1986. Article has good pictures and explanation of geology conditions of the project. 28

. Article on CSXT's efforts to lower tracks to allow the Trenton subdivision [former New York Short Line RR] now known as the Trenton Line, from north PA to Manville, NJ, to handle double-stack freight trains for CSX's intermodal, beneath 1-6-longstanding bridges. 2e

5.2 Drayage Truck lssues

The Port Drives Bill of Rights Act of 2OL7 by Rep. Grace Napolitano, D-CA will create a task force to review a broken system and crack down on bad actors. Also Rep. Jerrold Nadler D-NY introduced the Clean Ports Act of 2OL7 that required ports to address port pollution and congestion issues. The 2-bills will help reduce pollution, mitigate traffic congestion, and improve efficiency without putting the burden on the backs of truckers, says the unions. s

¡ lntermodal rail is expanding as the economy expands, imports flow into the U.S., and truck rates rise. Total intermodal rail volume jumped 6.3%o yr-over-yr in the 3'd-Q-2017 driven by a 8.2% increase in internationalvolume and 3.8% expansion in domestic intermodal freight says, the lntermodal Association of North America-IANA-. Trailer-on-Flatcar-TOFC-loads climbed 8.4% from the 3'd-Q-201"6 says IANA's Trends and Statistics Report. As volumes rise, so does ¡ntermodal pricing. The Cars lntermodal Pricing lndex rose 4% in September 20L7-the L2th consecutive monthly increase for the index, that is being caused by over-the-road capacity tightening. lntermodal spot market rates went up 23.9% over the last quarter, and domestic intermodal rates jumped tt.7% yr-over-yr. The AAR said it was the best month in their history. Some carriers are required to provide major intermodal carriers chassis, available to many customers, especially large ones, making "carrier haulage" free. 6

. U.S. shippers and logistics service providers-LSB-expect significant change in truck capacity and pricing in 2018, from the electronic logging device-ElD-mandate, but are far from agreed on to the extent of the change. LSPs believe shippers are ill-prepared for ELD and the impact is expected to cause a tightening of truck capacity. 8

. The Electronic Logging Device-ELD-mandate rule takes effect on December L8,20]-7 and 3.0E6-trucks will need to replace paper logbooks used since the 1930s when federal hours of service rules were introduced, will be replaced with ELDs. 53.5% trucking companies expect to be ready for the rule, only 33J% are compliant now, and 1,1% are ignoring the mandate. The mandate is expected to cost $t.gfg for

15 purchasing it and training the operators, and to save 53.5E9 in reduction of crash-related costs and paperwork. 22

. Using predictive analytics the Port of Montreal in 2018 will alert drayage drivers when it looks as if truck turn times will be long and use data collected on terminal gate movements to lessen the impact of rail switching on trucks. The port and city will also use data collected by radio-frequency identification-RFID-and license plate reading technology to manage traffic signals, improving truck and passenger traffic fluidity. They have been able to monitor their S-terminals and truck turn times in real time since September 2016. The predictive analysis will use the Trucking PORTaI application to advise drivers. Some 2,500-trucks enter the port daily, 1,700-haul containers, and cargo moved by truck vrs rail flipped from a ratio of 45:55 to 55:45 in the last decade. Port volume is up 6% to 1.5E6-TEU in 2017. The average truck turn time declined from 48-min in 2016 to 43-min in 20L7-the time when the truck enters the common entry portal where the RFID tags are read and exit's the facility, having dropped off a container and picked up another. as

. As the electronic logging device-ELD-era gets underway in the U.S., Canada is planning an ELD mandate of their own by 2O2O,for federally regulated truckers. Canadian truckers that cross the border each day already are required to use ELDs as well as meet other U.S. regulations when in the country. The practice of the "self-certification" process for ELD venders is being challenged by drivers, over lack of federal oversight issues. a7

. After a century of neglect, the electric truck is becoming the king of alternative energy freight vehicles, thanks to Elon Musk's launch of the Tesla Semi. UPS is ordering 125-Tesla semis, Anheuser-Busch ordered 40, and Wal-Mart and Sysco are following with orders of 15 and 50 respectively. PepsiCo reserved 100 in December 2O!7 , aswell as Schneider National and J.B. Hunt Transport Services that uses drayage and less- than-truckload flats ordered an undisclosed number of trucks and Dependable Supply Chain Services in Los Angles, ordered 1"5-electric trucks. The excitement is over fuel savings with diesel in CA, with the states raising the diesel excise tax to 36Ç/g al-a 2O%/gal increase. The trucks are expected for delivery by 2019. Truckers have also been converting their trucks to natural gas to reduce carbon emissions by 30%. The electric trucks can carry an 80E3-lb load 300-to 500-mi between charges, and autonomous technology is also available. a8

5.3 Mexico's Rail Line Between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

There is a proposal to build a railroad costing SL.0E9 crossing Mexico from the Pacific to the Atlant¡c Oceans in Mexico City. lt would be used to upgrade Mexico's rail system and the government wants to invest S5.0E9 in L17-ports. The proposalwould link the Ports of Manzanillo, Lázaro Cardenas, or Salinas Cruz on the Pacific side with the Ports of Veracruz or Coatzacoalcos on the Gulf side of Mexico. The minimum distance is 200-mi-far shorter than the Panama Canal, and it would cut transit time from coast to coast from 7-days to 4-days. 2a

. ln Jacumba Hot Springs, Mexico Robert Smith lives in an old stat¡on-masters house that served the so- called "lmpossible Railroad" running from lmperial County through the perilous desert cliffs to the Pacific Coast. lt was built by John D. Speckles almost a century ago-the 148-mi railroad still runs between San Diego into Tijuana as far east as Tecate. Smith was hired by Baja California RR who wants to use the inoperable 70-mi desert line that runs from Tecate to Campo, through the hills of Carrizo Gore, to Plaster City with Union Pacific RRs system. Baja California RR is assessing what it would take to restore bridges in

r_6 the system. The efforts have been funded by Fernando Beltrán and his team since 2012. Some S20E6 has been invested in the 44-mi stretch between Tijuana and Tecate and project freight is expeted to be running by 2020.ao

5.4 Kunming-Singapore Heavy Railway IPan-Asia Railway Network]

There is a Kunming-Singapore Railway IPan-Asia Railway Network] being developed to connect China, Singapore, and Southeast Asia. lt will include a High-Speed Rail System. 7

5.4.L Eastern Route via Vietnam and Cambodia

5.4.2 Central Route via Laos

5.4.3 Western Route via Myanmar

5.4.3.L Malaysia to Singapore Section

5.4.4 High-Speed Rail System

. Through the SERVIR program, NASA is putting geospatial satellite images and analysis tools in the hands of local decision makers around the World. Article has a good analysis of Southeast Asia's Mekong River. 31

5.5 The Belt and Road lnitiative: EU-China

Containerized cargo on railroads between China and Europe has grown at a furious pace in the past year, driven by strong consumer demand, limited air-freight space, and the benefits of overland shipping for products made in Western China. As the cargo volume increases on the 3-main China-Europe Corridors, it is straining the available infrastructure and capacity at peak periods, and taxing trade documentation procedures to ensure smooth trade flows. Air cargo rates at $Z.OO to 5fO.OO/tg for 9,600- gm l2L,t64-lbl comes to some S64E3 for air transport, but the same shipment in a 4O-ft-container [FEU] would cost S3,000-via ocean and S4,000-via rail. The China Railway Express-umbrella for all rail services, were expected to grow LS%/yr for the next L0-years. The College of Europe says, by 2027 it will reach 636E3-TEUs with cargo shifting from sea and air to rail routes on the Belt and Road lnitiative: E.U.-China Logistics and Supply Chain in Bruges, Belgium. At a forum, the University of Antwerp said, since 201L, S2.5E9 of goods have been shipped from China to Europe on the system.

Lack of infrastructure, especially in Russia and Kazakhstan, and the need for 3-track changes from standard-gauge in China to a wider-gage track in Russia, and back to standard-gage in Europe is a

L7 challenge. Production activities in China have been pushed inland because of rising labor costs and a part of the "Go West" campaign of the past, to booming cities of Chongqing in Western China with its Chongquing-Duissberg rail route that sends computers to Europe. The cargo is serviced by forwarder DB Schenker, the logistics arm of German rail operator Deutsche Bahn with CEO Jochen Thewes says, the volume is developing at breakneck speed in the Lst 6-months of 2OL7, transporting 40,600-TEUs, and is expected to reach 82E3-TEUs by the end of 2018. Minglong Tang, head of the Western Region says less Than 1% of the total China-Europe trade went by rail. Axle loads differ between Europe and Russia, the length of trains also differ, lending to containers building up at the border points, and limits to capacity of the rail routes was also discussed at the forum. Customs and maintenance issues are also problematic. Door to door via rail can be done in 16 to 18-days and ocean transport takes more than 50-days. a3

. Container ships carry more than 25E3-TEUs/wk between Asia and Europe, while just 4,00-TEUs/wk move by rail from China -less than 2% of The weekly total, says Clemence Cheng, executive director of H utchison Ports and CEO of the Port to Felixstowe. The numberof weekly eastbound ocean services has increased from less than 1O-several years ago, to more than SO-today, connecting eight Chinese terminals with 6-in Europe. The number of westbound services from Europe soared to 23/wk. The Chinese government wants to double the number of annual trains to 5,000 by 2020 a nd grow 100%/yr. 8O% of trade is by ocean and rail should be looked at as an integrated network not a threat to ocean services. lntegrating parts of a supply chain is traditionally done by forwarders, and if Maersk does it, it would use its Damco forwarding division. DHL says by 2O2O trains from China would use 3-corridors: north through Russia, central through Kazakhstan, and south through Pakistan. Giant Swiss forwarder Kuehne +Nagel announced a strategic expansion to its China-Europe service and is offering shipments from northern China, Japan, South Korea, and southeast Asia to locations in Europe. aa

5.5.1 Eurasia Routes: China-Europe-and lndia-Russia trade corridor

Shippers of goods between China and Europe, and lndia to Russia and the E.U., will have more routing options as new corridors offer cost savings. The opening of the Tarkmenbashi seaport in Turmenistan, gives shippers interested in using a China-Europe rail, one more option, but it faces stiff cost and transit time competition from existing corridors. The Turkmenbashi seaport is part of the Europe- Caucasus-Asia TRACECA-trade corridor, from China through the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, on its way to Europe. China is developing industry in its interior and western provinces, to lead to faster economic growth that is mostly in the countries east, because of its oceans access. TRACECA transportation costs are unknown now, but estimates are S5,500 to S6,000/container, that would be cheaper than $6,000 to 57,500/container for the China-Europe rail shipments, on Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway. Shipments would be sent via rail to Turkmenbashi before being loaded onto a ship for transit to Baku, Azerbaijan, to the Georgian Ports of Batumi and Poti, for shipping across the Black Sea to Romania, where the corridor terminates. The lack of sea access causes forces many Chinese shippers from the northwest parts of the country to transport their cargo 3,000-km to the east coast of the country for loading onto sh¡ps bound for Europe.

The value of shipments of Chinese cargo of S1589/yr has been successful, says the Chinese Ministry of Economy. Now 93% of the 15E6 to 17E6-TEUs from China to Europe moves by sea with a 7% split between air and rail. Redirecting goods would enable shippers in Western China to reduce transit times by half as TRACECA would have a transit time of 20-25-days to Europe, compared to 40 to 45 for ocean shipping from China's east coast, that does not include transit time of moving goods from the interior to the coast.

18 The Western Chinese-Western Europe corridor opened in 2007, is L,000-km shorter than TRACECA and does not rely on ocean shipping for any leg of its journey, as the cargo goes by the Trans-Siberian Railway in the Russian border town of Orenbury, for shipment into Europe. lt also has fewer customs borders, as Russia and Kazakhstan are part of the Eurasian Customs Union-meaning only 2-borders to cross-that between China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and the E.U. The TRACECA corridor will have double that amount-up to 8, depending on the routing. Pricing between the 2-routes is about the same-S5,000 to $5,500/container for the Western China-Western Europe corridor.

The cost of container cargo transport for the lndia to Russia and the E.U., should decline up to 30% compared to the traditional trade route through the Suez Canal if the lnternational North-South Transport Corridor-INSTC-delivers the benefits officials expect when the largely rail routes opens in 20L8. The INSTC is a 4,474-mi multi-mode network of ship, rail, and roads, for transporting freight across lndia, lran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe. Th launch of the route was possible only after the lifting of sanctions against lran by the lnternational Community. ln its 1'Lstage, the new route will be able to transport 5-mt of cargo/yr-increasing to 10.0E6-mt/yr. Russia says the INSTC's route can handle 25E6 to 26E6-mt/yr,link Mumbaiwith St Petersburg, and will reduce the lndia to Russia cargo transport time from 35-days to L7-days. After it reaches Russia, it will be transported to Europe and the Nordic states by various routes. The Federation of Freight Forwarders Association, in lndia says the route is 40% shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal. The lndia Chamber of Commerce will guarantee compensation in the event of cargo delivery failure to its final customs. The new route could be 30 to 35% cheaper than the Suez Canal route. FM Logistics Russia, part of the French transport group FM Logistics say, with favorable conditions the new route will be able to compete with air transportation. The Russian Union of lndustrialists and Entrepreneurs said, land transit on the route will grow among shippers moving freight from lndia to Russia and the E.U. in the absence of anti-lranian sanctions, and a cheap ruble, that makes Russian cargo services more completive. ln addition, the new corridor is an alternative to the Strait of Malacca for Chinese shippers in the event of deuteriation in relations with South Asian countries, it would be more advantages for China's shippers to use the INSTC cargo route, but in the absence of direct railservice between Russia and lran it would have major short comings.

E€rjtñt ! Õ x¡'añ

Guongzñê!

ç.¡ 46

6.0 lnland Waterways Connections

6.L North American Great Lakes and Lock System

Tradepoint Atlantic-TPA-Ihe multimodal logistics complex south of Baltimore continues to expand its rail-related business including tenants: FedEx, Under Armor, Amazon, and Royal Farms, on the former Sparrow's Point Bethlehem Steel mill closed in 20L2. They have formed a new short line that several industrial companies on the site use and manages 100's of railcars in storage. TPA is handling rail-borne

19 export coal shipments, slag, and mineral disposal. They also plan to handle turbine equipment for offshore wind farms steel. The mills rail network is some L00-mi long and TPA has 5-EDM switcher locomotives, direct connections with CSX and Norfolk Southern under former CSX's Paul Thomas. They will add more capacity with tracks for their 2,400-cars, purchase new switchers, salvaged old track, and reconditioned frogs. They also want to do rail car services, repairs, and there is also a locomotive shop for LO-units. 11

6.2 Mississippi River

On November !, 2017 the National Waterways foundation-NWF-with the Maritime Administration-MARAD-released a study, "The lmpacts of Unscheduled Lock Outages" that examines multiple impacts of outages on inland waterway systems in the U.S. The study covered 4-geographically different locks on the inland waterways system: Markland Locks and Dam, on the Ohio River near Cincinnati, that opened in L959; Calcasieu Lock, in Louisiana, that opened in L950; LaGrange Lock and Dam on the southern lllinois River, that opened in 1939; and Lock and Dam 25 on the Mississippi River north of St. Louis, that opened in L939. The four locks support traffic on critical segments of the Mississippi River. Each lock was screen for physical characteristics, performance, and network role. Closure of Markland for a year would cause a supply chain burden of some St.EEg/yr, for Calcasieu it would be Sf.fEg/yr and require 10.0E3-rail cars and 100's of locomotives to more cargo around the locks. At La Grange and/or Lock and Dam 25 it would cost S1-.5E9/yr and stress the nation's railsystem to transport cargo. Trucking to alternative waterways would add 500E3-loaded trucks/yr with 150E6-truck-miles in affected states. The system of the 4-locks impacts 18-states, especially LA, TX, and lL. Real-world examples of inland waterways shut downs occurred in September-November 2Ot7 aL Locks and Dams 52 and 53 in lL, and at the lnner-Harbor Navigation Canal Lock in October 2Ot7 in LA on the Gulf. There are 219-locks at 176-sites with an average age of more than 60-years, with 59% more than 50-years old. The total tonnage moved on the inland waterways system in 2016 was 557.8E6-tons valued at S300E9. Study at: 33 wate rwaysco u nci Lorg/locksda ms/

6.3 Ohio River

American Municipal Power-AMP-decided to add green energy, hydroelectric to its portfolio and it contracted with MWH-now part of Stantec, to design and build 4-hydropower projects along the Ohio River, adjacent to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers locks and dams. The projects would need to maximize the low-head green energy potential at each site, and not disrupt traffic on the river in terms of commercial use in the U.S. The system is made up of the 44-MW Willow lsland hydro-plant near St. Mary's, W. VA with 2-buble turbines; and the 88-MW Cannelton hydro-plant near Hawesville, KY; the 105-MW Meldahl hydro-plant near Maysville, KY; and the 76-MW Smithland hydro plant near Smithland, KY, each with 3- bulb turbines. 30

7.0 Maintenance Operations

7.1Tug Boats

7.2 Cranes

ln 2O2O the Georgia Ports Authority will receive 6-Neo-Panamex ship-to-shore cranes, a SZgf0 investment, that is in addition to a previous order of 4-craines to be operational as early as 2018. The 10- additional cranes will bring the Port of Savanah's total cranes to 36-unmatched by any other terminal in North America. The fleet of cranes will allow the port to move 1,300-containers/hr across a single dock

20 for unmatched efficiency and reach 22-containers wide. The cranes were designed by Konecrains of Finland and operate with 10,000-ft of contiguous berth space. The Garden City terminal has seen a 43% increase in the number of vessels carrying 8E3-TEUs. The Savannah Harbo/s recent deepening helped to service the world's larger ships and the Panama Canal's ability to accommodate vessels of 14E3-TEUs. s2

References:

l The Journal of Commerce, November 27,2OI7 pp. 28 & 30

2The Journal of Commerce, November 27,2OI7 pp. 18-19

3 The Journal of Commerce, Novemb er 27 , 2OI7 pp. 68-80

aThe Journal of Commerce, November 27,20L7 pp. 54-61

sThe Journal of Commerce, November 27,2Ot7 pp. 32

6The Journal of Commerce) November 27,2OI7 pp. 46-47,52 & 86

7 Google.com: Kunming-singapore railway, wikipedia

sThe Journal of Commerce, November 27, 2OL7 pp. 50-51

e Railway Age, December 2017 pp. 6

10 Railway Age, December 20L7 pp. 8

ll Railway Age, December 2OL7 pp. 12

12 Railway Age, December 2OI7 pp.20-23

13 ENR, Dec 25lan t,2OI7 pp.7

laThe Journal of Commerce, December tt,2OL7 pp.6

lsThe Journal of Commerce, December Lt,2OI7 pp.8

16The Journal of Commerce, December L1",20L7 pp. 10-12 & 14-18

17 The Journa I of Com me rce, Dece m b er LL, 2OL7 pp. 2O-2I

18The Journal of Commerce, December LI,2OI7 pp.2t-22

1s The Journal of Commerce, Decemb er tL,2OL7 pp. 25-28

20The Journal of Commerce, December tL,2OL7 pp. 30-32

21The Journal of Commerce, December L1., 20t7 pp.47

22The Journal of Commerce, December 11, 2OL7 pp.48-54

23The Journal of Commerce, December tL, 2OL7 pp. 59-60

2aThe Journal of Commerce, December L!,2OL7 pp.62

2sThe Journal of Commerce, December LL,20L7 pp. 63-64

21, 26Trains, January 2018 pp. 6

27Trains, January 2018 pp.8

28 Earth, Jan/Feb 2018 pp. L07-I11" and Google.com: english channel tunnel, video

2e Civil Engineering, January 2018 pp. 52-59

30 Power, December 2Ot7 pp.34-35

31 Earth, Jan/Feb 2018 pp. 40-47 and Google.com: mekong river

32Power, December 2OL7 pp. L4, Google.com: kutubdia upazila, andGoogle.com: bangladesh opt to make payra a deep-sea port

33Marine Log, December2OtT pp.7

3aMarine Log, December2OtT pp.4

3s Marine Log, December 2017 pp. 8

36 Marine Log, December 2017 pp. 9

3TMarine Log, December2OLT pp. 10

38 Marine Log, December 2O!7 pp. 11

3e Marine Log. December 2O17 pp. 13-16

aoThe San Diego U-T L-15-18 pp.A1 & A8 and I-L7-t8 pp. 81& 86

41The San Diego U-T L-25-1-8 pp.C1

Google.com: merchant marine act of 1920

a3 The Journa I of Commerce, January 22,20L8 "Growing pains: Peak season volume has tested China-Europe rail infrastructure." pp. 17-18 and Google.com: one belt one road initiative

44 The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2Ot8 "Tracking limits of rail threat" pp. L8 & 20, Google.com: china's proposed new silk roads L-korea, and Google.com: kuehne + nagel-wikpedia

asThe Journal of Commerce, January 22,2Ot8 pp.4

a6The Journalof Commerce, January 22,zOLg pp.22-24 and Google.com: china's one belt one road regional economic integration initiative wikipedia

47 The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2018 pp. 26-28

asThe Journalof Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp.30

aeThe Journal of Commerce, January 22, 2OL8 pp. 6

s0The Journalof Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp. 10-11

slThe Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp. 15-L6

22 s2 The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2}tg pp. 32-33

s3The Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OI8 pp. 34-35

saThe Journal of Commerce, January 22,2}tg pp. 36-37

ssThe Journal of Commerce, January 22,2OL8 pp. 38-40

s6 The Journal of Commerce, Novemb er 27 ,2Ot7 pp. 26

s7 Marine Log, December 2OL7 pp.2

s8 Martine Log, January 2018 pp. 10

se Marine Log, January 2018 pp. LL

60 Marine Log, January 2Ot8 pp. t2

6l Marine Log, January 20L8 pp. 13

62 Marine Log, January 201-8 pp. 15-17

63 Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 13-24

6a Marine Log, January 20L8 pp. 26-28 and Google.com: northern sea route

6s Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 29-30 and Goolgle.com: Fisher lsland, video

66 Ref: Marine Log, January 20L8 pp. 32 and Google.com: strategic marine naval shipyard in vung tau, vietnam.

67 Marine Log, January 2018 pp. 32

23 John G Wotzka 72O 4rh Ave. San Diego, CA92tO1., Ph: 619-446-769},[email protected]

bonds. The current schedule has pricing slated for early April with the closing later that month; however, the financing team will continuously evaluate market conditions and will remain flexible with respect to when to enter the market.

Summary: The 2018 Notes have an estimated All-In True Interest Cost (“All-In TIC”) of approximately 1.92% in today’s market. Combined senior and subordinate lien debt service would increase from $111.8 million to $133.3 million through 2021 (until the notes mature). Audited FY 2017 sales tax revenues was $284.5 million, resulting in estimated annual debt service coverage of 2.70 times on senior lien obligations and 2.13 times on combined senior and subordinate lien obligations. This is strong coverage and should support high ratings on the subordinate lien.