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Economic Impact of the High-Speed Railway on Housing Prices in China

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Economic Impact of the High-Speed Railway on Housing Prices in China sustainability Article Economic Impact of the High-Speed Railway on Housing Prices in China Yuxiang Wang 1, Xueli Liu 2 and Feng Wang 1,* 1 School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China; [email protected] 2 Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 19 October 2018; Accepted: 12 December 2018; Published: 16 December 2018 Abstract: This study investigated whether and to what extent does the High-Speed Railway (HSR) affect city-level housing prices. With the data of HSR operation and housing prices from 285 cities from 2009 to 2017, the paper aimed to estimate the quantitative relationship between HSR and city-level housing prices and exploited city and regional dummy variables to assess the disparities between regions, followed by the economic effects between typical city pairs. Our findings were as follows: (1) The introduction of HSR leads to a 13.9% increase in city-level housing prices, and the figures for national central cities and regional central cities were 31.7% and 19.6%, respectively; (2) regional imbalance was mitigated with the development of the HSR, and some central cities in underdeveloped regions were stimulated with regard to housing price growth; (3) siphon effects and diffusion effects were observed in megacity–small city pairs, while synergistic effects often lay in megacity–megacity pairs, and such effects all tended to be more significant with increases in the number of HSR lines and a drop in the travel time. Keywords: high-speed rail; housing prices; sustainable economic development; disparity and unbalance JEL Classification: L92; L85; R11 1. Introduction To narrow regional imbalance is an important goal of sustainable economic development, especially in developing nations. With rapid economic growth following the opening-up policy, regional economic disparity has become a major challenge in China [1]. For instance, from 1978 to 1998, provinces located along the eastern and southern coast, such as Fujian and Guangdong, experienced very fast economic development, with an average annual real GDP growth rate of more than 10%, whereas the figures for other inland provinces, such as Gansu and Guizhou, were much slower, with an average growth rate of 6% [2]. In the most recent two decades, the disparity between different regions in China has expanded. Such an increased regional inequality has raised numerous concerns about social stability and economic sustainability [3]. To address these challenges, the Chinese central government launched a series of policies to promote a coordinated regional economic development. Prime Minister Li Keqiang revealed that further development was not only critical to China’s economic success, but a fundamental way to reduce regional disparities [4]. Similarly, national High-Speed Railway (HSR) corridors in China were initiatively designed to reduce regional disparity by connecting the developed east and south coastal provinces [5], and therefore the implementation effect of the HSR network on this issue was worth Sustainability 2018, 10, 4799; doi:10.3390/su10124799 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 22 Sustainability 2018, 10, 4799 2 of 21 worth evaluating [3]. The gap in housing price growth between cities and regions can result in direct evaluatingsocial inequality, [3]. The and gap the in economic housing price distribution growth betweeneffects of citiesthe construction and regions of can transport result in infrastructure direct social inequality,exert similar and consequences, the economic and distribution statistically, effects both of of the them construction have shown of transport similar changes, infrastructure fluctuating exert similarin 2012 consequences, and 2013 and and increasing statistically, sharply both after of them 2016 have (Figure shown 1). similar In the changes, last decade, fluctuating housing in 2012price andappreciation 2013 and increasinghas been phenomenal sharply after 2016in major (Figure Chinese1). In thecities, last leading decade, to housing concerns price of appreciation real estate price has beenbubbles phenomenal and housing in major affordability Chinese cities, as well leading as surges to concerns in assets of real for estatemany price Chinese bubbles households. and housing For affordabilityinstance, Zheng as well and as Saiz surges [6] found in assets that for Beijing many had Chinese an annual households. average For appreciation instance, Zheng rate of and 27.4%, Saiz and [6] foundthat the that average Beijing annual had an growth annual for average 35 cities appreciation was 14.3% rate between of 27.4%, 2006 and and that 2013. the In average the meantime, annual growthChina’s for HSR 35 citiesconstruction was 14.3% has betweenbeen booming, 2006 and and 2013. more In and the meantime,more Chinese China’s can enjoy HSR constructionthe convenience has beenand booming,accessibility and improvements more and more of Chinese HSR lines can enjoy[3,7,8]. the By convenience the end of and2017, accessibility the operating improvements mileage of ofChina’s HSR lines railways [3,7, 8nationwide]. By the end was of 127,000 2017, the km, operating of which mileage 25,000 km of China’swas HSR railways lines, thereby nationwide accounting was 127,000for about km, 66.3% of which of the 25,000 global km total was operating HSR lines, mileag therebye. accountingFigure 1a shows for about the 66.3%city-level of the housing global totalprice operatinggrowth in mileage. China’s Figurehigh-speed1a shows rail thehub city-levelcities (2009–2017), housing price and growthFigure 1b in China’sillustrates high-speed the operating rail hubmileage cities and (2009–2017), year-on-year and increase Figure1b of illustrates China’s theHSR operating (2009–2025). mileage The anddevelopment year-on-year history increase of HSR of China’snetwork HSR in (2009–2025).China can be The divided development into three history scenarios of HSR (details network in in Table China canA1)， beand divided we intohave three also scenarioscollected (detailsdetailed in information Table A1), andfor HSR we have lines also used collected in our dataset detailed from information 2009 to the for end HSR of lines 2017(details used in ourin Table dataset A2). from 2009 to the end of 2017(details in Table A2). (a) Figure 1. Cont. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4799 3 of 21 Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 22 (b) Figure 1.1a.(a Changes) Changes in in housing housing prices prices in in China’s China’s Hi High-Speedgh-Speed Railway Railway (HSR) (HSR) hub hub cities cities (2009–2017). Source: Authors collectedcollected andand drewdrew thisthis accordingaccording toto “ANJUKE “ANJUKE ( https://anjuke.com(https://anjuke.com))”,”, one of thethe largestlargest realreal estateestate internet internet portals portals in in China. China. (b ) Changes in operating mileage and year-on-year increase of China’s HSR (2009–2025). Source: Authors collected and drew this according to http://www.nra. gov.cn, the National Railway Administration of the People’s Republic of China. Figure 1b. Changes in operating mileage and year-on-year increase of China’s HSR (2009–2025). The existing HSR corridor maps of China with the cities it serves are presented in Figure2. Source: Authors collected and drew this according to http://www.nra.gov.cn, the National Railway Figure A1 shows the planned HSR corridors that will connect all provinces of China except Tibet by Administration of the People’s Republic of China. 2025. Specifically, having sped up, promoted, and spread nationally between 2009 and 2016, China’s HSR network now serves all the prefecture-level cities, thereby presenting us with a representative The existing HSR corridor maps of China with the cities it serves are presented in Figure 2. case for investigating the relationship between HSR policy and city-level housing prices with special Figure A1 shows the planned HSR corridors that will connect all provinces of China except Tibet by attention on regional disparity from a national perspective. 2025. Specifically, having sped up, promoted, and spread nationally between 2009 and 2016, China’s HSR network now serves all the prefecture-level cities, thereby presenting us with a representative case for investigating the relationship between HSR policy and city-level housing prices with special attention on regional disparity from a national perspective. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4799 4 of 21 Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 22 FigureFigure 2. 2.The The High-Speed High-Speed Railway map map of of China China as asof December of December 2017. 2017. Source: Source: Authors Authors collected collected and anddrew drew this this according according to to “http:// “http://www.nra.gov.cn/www.nra.gov.cn/” (the” (the National National Railway Railway Administration Administration of ofthe the People’sPeople’s Republic Republic of of China). China). WhetherWhether or or not not China’s China’s ambitious ambitious HSR HSR plan plan can beca beneficialn be beneficial for economic for economic development development depends notdepends only on not the only growth on the of realgrowth output, of real but output, also on but the also confidence on the confidence of the market of the in market the sustainable in the growthsustainable of the growth Chinese of economythe Chinese [9 ].economy The underlying [9]. The underlying principle isprinciple that housing is that priceshousing can prices reflect can the economicreflect the effect economic of the effect current of the period, current and period, more an importantlyd more importantly the confidence the confidence of the residents of the residents in future economicin future growth. economic Moreover, growth. city-levelMoreover, housing city-level price housing is one price of the is mostone of important the most factorsimportant affecting factors the competitionaffecting the between competition cities, between especially cities, between especially megacities between and megaci smallties cities. and In small this regard, cities.
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