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Rural households' vulnerability and adaptation to climatic variability and institutional change: Three cases from central Mexico Item Type text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Eakin, Hallie Catherine Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 07/10/2021 05:13:13 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280168 INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. 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ProQuest Information and teaming 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 RURAL HOUSEHOLDS" VULNERABE.ITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATIC VARL\BILITY AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: THREE CASES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO by Hallie Catherine Eakin A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2002 UMI Number: 3073214 — _____ (ft UMI UMI Microform 3073214 Copyright 2003 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Leaming Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA ® GRADUATE COLLEGE As members of the Final Examination Committee, we certify that we have read the dissertation prepared by Hallie Catherine Eakin entitled RURAL HOUSEHOLDS' VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLLMATIC VAKlAiilLiTY and INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: THREE CASES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy ^ iljo Diana Liverman - i ^ Date Charles Hutchin ' Date Lo>l ¥/ ol^ And-few Date '( Jt Jl ^ Simon tterbury Date' ' Tim&W Finan Date ~t' hjOC Z! Diane Austin Date' / Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate's submission of the final copy of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereby certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requiremenT —ll Dissertation Director Diana Liverman Dat, 3 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgement of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the head of the major department or the Dean of the Graduate College when in his or her judgment the proposed use of the material is in the interests of scholarship. In all other instances, however, permission must be obtained from the author. SIGNED: 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It is unlikely that I would have had the incredibly rewarding experience of researching and writing this dissertation without the encouragement and numerous opportunities provided to me by my advisor, Diana Liverman. It was through Diana that I first came to know Mexico and understand the complexity of its agrarian culture. I would also like to thank my committee members—Charles Hutchinson, Andrew Comrie, Simon Batterbury, Tim Finan and Diane Austin—for their enthusiasm, their guidance and confidence in my ability to implement this interdisciplinary research project. I am also extremely grateful for the intellectual companionship and support of my friend and colleague, Cecilia Conde, of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the National Autonomous University of Mexico. I am also particularly appreciative of support of Luis Bojorquez and the students of the Laboratory for Spatial Analysis of the Institute of Ecology at U.N. A.M., and Jose Jimenez Lopez of the University of Tlaxcala, in implementing the household surveys. I would like to thank Dr. Nestor Estrella, Director of the Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Puebla, the extension staff of PEAT and SINDER in the Tecamachalco office of SAGARPA, Ing. Carlos Perez in Tecamachalco, well as the rural development experts of DEPAC and Desarrollo Rural for sharing their expertise and knowledge of the region. I owe the success of this project to the tolerance of the residents of Plan de Ayala, Los Torres and Nazareno and their willingness to share with me the details of their livelihoods. I am particularly indebted to the family of Don Manuel, who made my project their own and accepted me as a member of their household. I would like to thank John and Sybil Eakin for their close reading and editing, and Laura and Louise for their fnendship and constant interest. Last, but definitely not least, I want to thank Luis for his patience, unwavering support and for sharing with me his Mexico. This project was funded by a National Science Foundation Graduate fellowship, an NSEP-BOREN fellowship, a FISPE North American Consortium Grant and a FLAS language fellowship. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS 9 LIST OF TABLES 11 ABSTRACT 13 1 AGRICULTURAL DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN CENTRAL MEXICO 15 Introduction 15 Vulnerability 22 Adaptation 28 2 RESEARCH DESIGN 38 Political Ecology and Livelihoods 38 Site Selection 44 Community-level data 47 Farm-level Analysis 48 Household Survey 49 Interviews 54 Climate and Agricultural Data Analysis 56 A Preview of Subsequent Chapters 58 3 GEOGRAPHY OF THE STUDY REGION 60 Introduction 60 The Study Region 61 The Region's History 63 Biophysical Constraints on Agriculture 64 Agriculture in the Valley's Contemporary Economy 72 Industrial Growth 76 Summary 81 4 GLOBALIZATION, NEOLIBERALISM AND AGRICULTURAL RESTRUCTURING IN MEXICO 83 Introduction 83 Globalization and "Viable" Agriculture in Mexico 87 Neoliberalism in Mexican Agriculture 89 Price liberalization and privatization in Mexico's maize sector 94 Research and extension 99 Credit and insurance 103 Land reform 107 PROCAMPO 110 Alianza para el Campo 112 PROGRESA 114 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS - Continued Institutional Change and Rural Livelihoods 115 Conclusions 120 5 CLIMATIC VAIUABILITY AND ENSO IN PUEBLA AND TLAXCALA 124 Introduction 124 Climate Variability in Tlaxcala and Puebla 126 Intra-seasonal Variability 129 Causes of Variability 131 ENSO Influences on Apizaco and Tecamachaico Climate 137 Methods 137 ENSO and regional precipitation 139 ENSO and minimum temperatures 143 Forecasting Climate 150 Decadal Trends and Climatic Change 153 Conclusions 156 6 THREE COMMUNITIES IN CENTRAL MEXICO 158 Introduction 158 Los Torres 159 History of Los Torres 163 Land Tenure and Landholding Size 164 Agricultural Production 165 Livelihood Groups 167 Plan de Ayala 170 History of Plan de Ayala 174 Land tenure and landholding size 176 Agricultural production 177 Livelihood groups 178 Nazareno 181 Nazareno history 185 Land tenure and landholding size 188 Agricultural production 189 Livelihood groups 192 The Communities in Comparison 194 7 CLIMATE IMPACTS AND HOUSEHOLD COPING STRATEGIES 200 Introduction 200 What is a "bad year"? 205 Hazard Impacts in 1998 and 1999 208 Yields 211 Mitigating Factors on Physical Impacts 212 Crop and field choice 213 Timing of planting 216 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS - Continued Crop disease, climate and production losses 219 Direct Economic Impacts of Crop Losses 220 Losses of market earnings and investment 221 Impact on expenditures for maize consumption 224 Coping Strategies 226 Los Torres 228 Plan de Ayala 230 Nazareno 233 Conclusions 237 8 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY WITH LIMITED LAND 241 Introduction 241 Landholding Size and Maize Requirements 243 Landholding Size. Crop Decisions and Risk 249 Risk Management and the Minifundios of Los Torres and Nazareno 255 Conclusion 266 9 FROM MAIZE TO MILK: PLAN DE AYALA'S DIVERSIFICATION INTO LIVESTOCK 270 Introduction 270 Tlaxcala's Crop Conversion Program 275 Advantages of Crop Diversification for Managing Climatic Risk 277 Market Obstacles to Diversification 281 From Forage to Milk to Markets 288 Adapting to Change with Livestock 297 Conclusions 301 10 MARKET EXPOSURE, IRRIGATION AND CONSTRAINTS ON ADAPTATION 305 Climatic and Market Uncertainty in Irrigated Production 307 Explanations of Price Variability 310 Climatic Risk, Markets and Finances in Production