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Regional Features of the Dynamics and Structure of Terrorist Activity in 1970–20121 I

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Regional Features of the Dynamics and Structure of Terrorist Activity in 1970–20121 I ISSN 2079-9705, Regional Research of Russia, 2017, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 372–383. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2017. Original Russian Text © I.P. Suprunchuk, V.S. Belozerov, P.M. Polian, 2016, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, 2016, No. 3, pp. 32–44. POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY Regional Features of the Dynamics and Structure of Terrorist Activity in 1970–20121 I. P. Suprunchuka, *, V. S. Belozerova, **, and P. M. Polianb, *** aNorth Caucasian Federal University, Stavropol, Russia bInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia *e-mail: [email protected] **e-mail: [email protected] ***e-mail: [email protected] Received February 15, 2015; in final form, June 13, 2017 Abstract⎯The article considers the spatiotemporal approach to studying terrorist activity. An integral indi- cator of the intensity level of terrorist tension is proposed, and on its basis, six regions of terrorist activity in the world are singled out: Asian, Middle Eastern, North African, South African, American and European. Each of the regions is characterized by specific historical features, and they also differ in such parameters as intensity, formedness, and scale of terrorist activity. Based on a case study of one of the regions, we describe in detail a model of territorial structure of terrorist activity, consisting of three zones differing in intensity, as well as a num- ber of other parameters. The article realizes the multiscale principle—terrorist activity is analyzed at three terri- torial levels: world, country (for Russia), and regional (with a case study of southern Russia). Keywords: terrorist activity, terrorism, territorial structure, spatiotemporal analysis, national security, terror- ism in Asia, terrorism in Russia, terrorism in southern Russia DOI: 10.1134/S2079970517040086 GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACH psychological components in varying degrees. As a TO THE STUDY OF TERRORISM result, terrorism has become an object of study of There is no unambiguous and universally accepted legal, political, and social sciences, which attempt to definition of terrorism. In Russian legal practice, it is understand and explain the emergence and existence defined as ideology, policy, and practice of active vio- of this phenomenon. lent influence on the state and society through terror- Currently, there are several basic interpretations of ist activity, targeted against their institutions or their the concept of terrorism abroad. The most popular representatives [12]. definitions came from two American scientists: As a pan-European historical phenomenon, ter- B. Jenkins, director of the RAND Corporation’s Cen- rorism has loudly proclaimed itself since the second ter for Policy Studies, and W. Laqueur, history profes- half of the 19th century, becoming a strategic tool of sor at Georgetown University. Thus, Jenkins proposed many revolutionary movements that have attempted to a definition adopted by US security agencies: “Terror- disrupt existing forms of statehood. It should be noted ism is the use or threat of force aimed at achieving that the line between terrorist and revolutionary activ- political change” [16]. Laqueur called terrorism “the ity is often difficult to distinguish. At the same time, illegal use of force against innocent people to achieve peaceful forms of protest do not contain signs of ter- political goals” [17]. rorism [1]. The main advantage of these definitions is the sim- As an object of scientific research, terrorism is rel- plicity and ease of application in specific cases. How- atively young. Until the second half of the 20th cen- ever, this is also their weakness, since such a definition tury, it remained on the periphery of analytical atten- involves too broad a range of actions often unrelated to tion. The evolution of terrorism, unfortunately, is such terrorism. To solve this problem, A. Schmid developed that it attracts more and more attention to itself. As an a synthetic definition of the phenomenon of terrorism. object of research, it is very complex and multifaceted, After analyzing dozens of definitions, he found combining social, ideological, religious, ethnic, and 22 common elements and proposed the following: “Terrorism is a violent method or threat of its use, 1 Extended version of the article published in Izv. Ross. Akad. used by nongovernmental undercover persons, groups Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2017, no. 3, pp. 32–44. or organizations in peacetime, carried out with the 372 REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE 373 help of discrete actions aimed at various objects, with rial structures, consisting of two blocks—system- certain goals or effect” [19]. structural and spatiotemporal analysis—is able to Both foreign and Russian legal understandings of reveal to the fullest extent possible the geographic terrorism and terrorist activity have developed around essence of terrorism and terrorist activity [5, 10]. these formulations. Psychology occupies a special System-structural analysis outlines the framework place in his study, which studies the specific properties of terrorism, delimiting the notion of terrorist activity. of terrorists [9]. Within the framework of military sci- Whereas terrorism is defined as a broad sociopolitical ence, terrorism is seen as a kind of low-intensity mili- phenomenon that has many forms, states, and aspects, tary conflict [8]. Terrorism is also called asymmetric and is the subject of interdisciplinary research, terror- war, reflecting unequal military, economic, financial, ist activity is primarily specific actions to destabilize and technical capabilities of the conflicting parties. In the situation in society and the interaction of society essence, it is realization of the strength of the weak in and the state. It occupies a place at the junction of collision with the weakness of the strong. In this case, state and society, acting as one of the instruments of there are no concepts inherent in conventional mili- their contact. tary operations: there is no front line, no specific visu- We have proposed a scheme for classifying the alized enemy, and the conflict becomes discrete in types and forms of terrorist activity (Fig. 1). Thus, reli- time and place. One can even say that terrorism is gious, extreme left or extreme right terrorist activities gradually replacing war as a method for resolving the are clearly distinguished by a combination of features conflict by force [3]. characteristic of them. Types can be divided further: Among the factors of terrorism, at least four groups so, in a religious form, one can distinguish subtypes in are distinguished: geocultural, psychological, reli- individual religions. Under the forms of terrorist activ- gious, and socioeconomic [12]. ity, we mean the differences between terrorist acts Naturally, each of the sciences has developed its according to the specifics of their organization and own view of terrorism and its corresponding interpre- conduct. tation. A geographical approach also contributes to the Terrorist activity can have both an international study of terrorism, allowing us to consider its spatio- and domestic character, and there is a confident trend temporal features comprehensively and give a qualita- towards the internationalization of terrorism. Types of tive integral evaluation [7]. In the opinion of terrorist activity differ also in the identity of subjects Yu.N. Gladkii, terrorism is one of six groups of man- and in ideology. Thus, right and left forms of terrorism kind’s global problems; it also pertains to problems of ideologically manifest themselves. Left terrorism is a mixed nature that can lead to massive loss of life [6]. ideologically based on various leftist doctrines: Marx- For the geographical study of terrorism, we have ism, Leninism, anarchism, Maoism, and many oth- developed a system of both absolute and relative indi- ers. The main goal of left-wing terrorists—Leninists, cators, as well as an integral assessment in a particular anarchists, Maoists, etc.—is the struggle against capi- territory. Absolute indicators include the number of talism, its destruction, and replacement by a socialist terrorist acts and their victims. Despite the simplicity, or communist system. The left, as a rule, does not use these indicators make it possible to judge the territorial terror against civilians; the objects of their attacks are location of terrorism in a considered region. However, exclusively representatives of government or big busi- in order to talk about the geographic characteristics of ness, as well as “symbols of capitalism.” Right-wing terrorism, it is necessary to consider relative indica- terrorism is not as common as left-wing. As a rule, it tors, in particular, the number of terrorist attacks per has a nationalistic and conservative character, and the 100000 people, the number of victims of terrorist main goal is to terrorize of strangers (e.g., migrants) attacks per 100000 people, the average number of and their defenders (and, to a much lesser extent, to casualties per terrorist act, and the area of one terrorist counteract to left and liberal movements). Sometimes attack. The number of victims of terrorist attacks per right-wing terrorists are in fact the “military wing” of 100000 people characterizes the magnitude of the legal right-wing parties [1]. population’s demographic losses in the region. By the identity of terrorists, terrorism can be The average number of casualties per terrorist act is divided into religious, ethnic and worldview. Religious
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