ISSN 2079-9705, Regional Research of , 2017, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 372–383. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2017. Original Russian Text © I.P. Suprunchuk, V.S. Belozerov, P.M. Polian, 2016, published in Izvestiya Rossiiskoi Akademii Nauk, Seriya Geograficheskaya, 2016, No. 3, pp. 32–44.

POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY

Regional Features of the Dynamics and Structure of Terrorist Activity in 1970–20121 I. P. Suprunchuka, *, V. S. Belozerova, **, and P. M. Polianb, *** aNorth Caucasian Federal University, Stavropol, Russia bInstitute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia *e-mail: [email protected] **e-mail: [email protected] ***e-mail: [email protected] Received February 15, 2015; in final form, June 13, 2017

Abstract⎯The article considers the spatiotemporal approach to studying terrorist activity. An integral indi- cator of the intensity level of terrorist tension is proposed, and on its basis, six regions of terrorist activity in the world are singled out: Asian, Middle Eastern, North African, South African, American and European. Each of the regions is characterized by specific historical features, and they also differ in such parameters as intensity, formedness, and scale of terrorist activity. Based on a case study of one of the regions, we describe in detail a model of territorial structure of terrorist activity, consisting of three zones differing in intensity, as well as a num- ber of other parameters. The article realizes the multiscale principle—terrorist activity is analyzed at three terri- torial levels: world, country (for Russia), and regional (with a case study of southern Russia).

Keywords: terrorist activity, terrorism, territorial structure, spatiotemporal analysis, national security, terror- ism in Asia, terrorism in Russia, terrorism in southern Russia DOI: 10.1134/S2079970517040086

GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACH psychological components in varying degrees. As a TO THE STUDY OF TERRORISM result, terrorism has become an object of study of There is no unambiguous and universally accepted legal, political, and social sciences, which attempt to definition of terrorism. In Russian legal practice, it is understand and explain the emergence and existence defined as ideology, policy, and practice of active vio- of this phenomenon. lent influence on the state and society through terror- Currently, there are several basic interpretations of ist activity, targeted against their institutions or their the concept of terrorism abroad. The most popular representatives [12]. definitions came from two American scientists: As a pan-European historical phenomenon, ter- B. Jenkins, director of the RAND Corporation’s Cen- rorism has loudly proclaimed itself since the second ter for Policy Studies, and W. Laqueur, history profes- half of the 19th century, becoming a strategic tool of sor at Georgetown University. Thus, Jenkins proposed many revolutionary movements that have attempted to a definition adopted by US security agencies: “Terror- disrupt existing forms of statehood. It should be noted ism is the use or threat of force aimed at achieving that the line between terrorist and revolutionary activ- political change” [16]. Laqueur called terrorism “the ity is often difficult to distinguish. At the same time, illegal use of force against innocent people to achieve peaceful forms of protest do not contain signs of ter- political goals” [17]. rorism [1]. The main advantage of these definitions is the sim- As an object of scientific research, terrorism is rel- plicity and ease of application in specific cases. How- atively young. Until the second half of the 20th cen- ever, this is also their weakness, since such a definition tury, it remained on the periphery of analytical atten- involves too broad a range of actions often unrelated to tion. The evolution of terrorism, unfortunately, is such terrorism. To solve this problem, A. Schmid developed that it attracts more and more attention to itself. As an a synthetic definition of the phenomenon of terrorism. object of research, it is very complex and multifaceted, After analyzing dozens of definitions, he found combining social, ideological, religious, ethnic, and 22 common elements and proposed the following: “Terrorism is a violent method or threat of its use, 1 Extended version of the article published in Izv. Ross. Akad. used by nongovernmental undercover persons, groups Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2017, no. 3, pp. 32–44. or organizations in peacetime, carried out with the

372 REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE 373 help of discrete actions aimed at various objects, with rial structures, consisting of two blocks—system- certain goals or effect” [19]. structural and spatiotemporal analysis—is able to Both foreign and Russian legal understandings of reveal to the fullest extent possible the geographic terrorism and terrorist activity have developed around essence of terrorism and terrorist activity [5, 10]. these formulations. Psychology occupies a special System-structural analysis outlines the framework place in his study, which studies the specific properties of terrorism, delimiting the notion of terrorist activity. of terrorists [9]. Within the framework of military sci- Whereas terrorism is defined as a broad sociopolitical ence, terrorism is seen as a kind of low-intensity mili- phenomenon that has many forms, states, and aspects, tary conflict [8]. Terrorism is also called asymmetric and is the subject of interdisciplinary research, terror- war, reflecting unequal military, economic, financial, ist activity is primarily specific actions to destabilize and technical capabilities of the conflicting parties. In the situation in society and the interaction of society essence, it is realization of the strength of the weak in and the state. It occupies a place at the junction of collision with the weakness of the strong. In this case, state and society, acting as one of the instruments of there are no concepts inherent in conventional mili- their contact. tary operations: there is no front line, no specific visu- We have proposed a scheme for classifying the alized enemy, and the conflict becomes discrete in types and forms of terrorist activity (Fig. 1). Thus, reli- time and place. One can even say that terrorism is gious, extreme left or extreme right terrorist activities gradually replacing war as a method for resolving the are clearly distinguished by a combination of features conflict by force [3]. characteristic of them. Types can be divided further: Among the factors of terrorism, at least four groups so, in a religious form, one can distinguish subtypes in are distinguished: geocultural, psychological, reli- individual religions. Under the forms of terrorist activ- gious, and socioeconomic [12]. ity, we mean the differences between terrorist acts Naturally, each of the sciences has developed its according to the specifics of their organization and own view of terrorism and its corresponding interpre- conduct. tation. A geographical approach also contributes to the Terrorist activity can have both an international study of terrorism, allowing us to consider its spatio- and domestic character, and there is a confident trend temporal features comprehensively and give a qualita- towards the internationalization of terrorism. Types of tive integral evaluation [7]. In the opinion of terrorist activity differ also in the identity of subjects Yu.N. Gladkii, terrorism is one of six groups of man- and in ideology. Thus, right and left forms of terrorism kind’s global problems; it also pertains to problems of ideologically manifest themselves. Left terrorism is a mixed nature that can lead to massive loss of life [6]. ideologically based on various leftist doctrines: Marx- For the geographical study of terrorism, we have ism, Leninism, anarchism, Maoism, and many oth- developed a system of both absolute and relative indi- ers. The main goal of left-wing terrorists—Leninists, cators, as well as an integral assessment in a particular anarchists, Maoists, etc.—is the struggle against capi- territory. Absolute indicators include the number of talism, its destruction, and replacement by a socialist terrorist acts and their victims. Despite the simplicity, or communist system. The left, as a rule, does not use these indicators make it possible to judge the territorial terror against civilians; the objects of their attacks are location of terrorism in a considered region. However, exclusively representatives of government or big busi- in order to talk about the geographic characteristics of ness, as well as “symbols of capitalism.” Right-wing terrorism, it is necessary to consider relative indica- terrorism is not as common as left-wing. As a rule, it tors, in particular, the number of terrorist attacks per has a nationalistic and conservative character, and the 100000 people, the number of victims of terrorist main goal is to terrorize of strangers (e.g., migrants) attacks per 100000 people, the average number of and their defenders (and, to a much lesser extent, to casualties per terrorist act, and the area of one terrorist counteract to left and liberal movements). Sometimes attack. The number of victims of terrorist attacks per right-wing terrorists are in fact the “military wing” of 100000 people characterizes the magnitude of the legal right-wing parties [1]. population’s demographic losses in the region. By the identity of terrorists, terrorism can be The average number of casualties per terrorist act is divided into religious, ethnic and worldview. Religious an indirect indicator of the scale of terrorist terrorists are intolerant of other religions; they attacks. Its maximum value indicates large-scale demand that all life in society be subject to the only losses as a result of terrorist attacks for a small number religious norms and rules, and exclusively in their thereof. The presence of several groups of terrorism interpretation. The most passionate, aggressive, and indicators makes it possible to perform an integral therefore, dangerous and widespread is Islamic terror- assessment of it. ism, which today accounts for the majority of terrorist We are working with the concepts of “terrorist attacks and their victims. activity,” which include the organizational and finan- The basis of ethnic terrorism is a complex and con- cial preparation of terrorist acts, recruitment, and tradictory process of self-determination of ethnic direct conduct of terrorist acts. The concept of territo- communities. In the literature there is a distinction

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Terrorist activity

By relation to states International Domestic

By identity of objects By social orientation Religious Ethnic Worldview Extreme left Extreme right Hierarchical level Hierarchical By environment of process Ground Air Water Space Computer

By means

With conventional weapons With weapons of mass destruction TYPES FORMS

Hijacking Explosion Murder Biological Chemical Nuclear

Arson Hostage taking

Fig. 1. Classification of types and forms of terrorism. between the three main subspecies of ethnic terrorism: The first is concentration of terrorist activity in a separatist, national-liberatory, and repressive limited territory and is point-areal in nature. Central- national [2]. ization of terrorist activity in certain regions and coun- tries of the world is observed. Territorially, terrorist Worldview terrorism arises from fundamental dis- activity is a highly concentrated phenomenon, so agreement with the prevailing norms and regulations according to our calculations, the concentration coef- in society. This includes the movement against abor- ficient, i.e., the share of the first ten countries in the tion, the movement for animal rights, etc. Most of total number of terrorist acts is 0.81, and in the number them are peaceful groups, but sometimes they also use of victims is 0.83 (in other words, 81% of all terrorist terrorist methods. attacks fall on ten countries and 83% of all victims in There are virtually no pure types. In reality, the the world). above types of terrorism are mixed and combined with The territorial differentiation of terrorist activity is each other, forming a complex variety. Often, terror- understood as its spatial structuring and stratification, ism has a mixed ethno-religious character, and some- presupposing the existence of high-intensity centers times ethnic terrorism is supplemented by right or left and areas of terrorist activity in the world, as well as ideology. territories only periodically affected by it. The next step in the classification is formed by At the world level, the territorial structure of mod- manifestations of terrorism. In the first approxima- ern terrorism is the totality of regions of terrorist activ- tion, they can be divided into ground, water, air, space, ity, which are understood to be continuous areas char- and computer terrorism in according with the realiza- acterized by a commonness of the established features tion environment. The first three forms are the most of terrorist activity. We have identified six terrorist common, while space terrorism is still potential, and activity regions in the world: Middle Eastern, Asian, all terrorist actions carried out through computer net- North African, South African, American, and Euro- works can be attributed to computer terrorism. pean (Fig. 2). Spatiotemporal analysis of terrorist activity is iden- Each region of terrorist activity, in turn, has an tified by its two main parameters—territorial concen- internal three-member structure. To study it, a com- tration and territorial differentiation. prehensive integral indicator of the intensity of terror-

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II

IV III V

I VI

Elements of internal structure Notations of terrorist regions of terrorist activity I—American Zone/subzone I II—European III—Middle Eastern Zone II IV—Asian Zone III V—North African VI—South African

Fig. 2. Regional structure of terrorist activity in world. ist activity was introduced, which takes into account Regions of terrorist activity differ in a number of seven indicators: the number of terrorist acts and vic- parameters—intensity (frequency of terrorist attacks), tims, the average number of victims per attack, and the formedness (i.e., the degree of permanence), and scale specialization rates by number of victims and terrorist (the average number of victims per attack)2 (Table 1). attacks relative to the area and population size of countries. For each of them, the average rank is calcu- lated by the ranking method. On its basis, in terrorist GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF REGIONS activity regions, three zones are distinguished, differ- OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY ing in intensity level: The largest level of terrorist activity falls on two zone I—territories with a high intensity of terrorist intensive, mature and large-scale regions—Asian and activity (an average rank of 1–50); Middle Eastern (the share in the global number of ter- zone II—territories with a medium intensity of ter- rorist attacks is 28.4 and 18.7%, and in the number of rorist activity (an average rank of 51–100); victims, 38.9 and 30.1%, respectively). The average zone III—territories with a low intensity of terrorist number of victims per terrorist act is higher than the activity (an average rank of more than 100). average in the world: 5.76 and 6.78 people/terrorist attack, which indicates large-scale terrorist activity2 (Table 2). Table 1. Typology of regions of terrorist activity in world The highest intensity was recorded in the 1990s— Region Intensity Formedness Scale 715 terrorist incidents per year in the Asian region and 421 terrorist incidents per year in the Middle Eastern Asian Intense Formed Large-scale region. In the last three years, the intensity of terrorist Middle Eastern Intense Formed Large-scale activity has reached a maximum level of 2288 and South African Intense Forming Large-scale 1329 terrorist incidents per year, respectively. Terrorist North African Intense Forming Large-scale 2 The small-scale type includes terrorist attacks with an average European Low-intensity Formed Small-scale victim index in the interval of 1.46–3.38 people/terrorist attack; medium-scale, 3.39–5.31 people/terrorist attack; large-scale, American Low-intensity Formed Small-scale 5.32–7.21 people/terrorist attack.

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Table 2. Main indicators of world regions of terrorist activity in 1970–2012 Number Region Number Average number Share Share Number of major terrorist of terrorist of terrorist of victims per of attacks in of victims in of victims attacks (more activity attacks attack world (%) world (%) than 100 victims) Asian 29264 168582 5.76 28.4 38.9 172 Middle Eastern 19224 130257 6.78 18.7 30.1 220 South African 5761 41557 7.21 5.6 9.6 47 North African 4716 27511 5.83 4.6 6.3 29 European 13732 20042 1.46 13.4 4.6 40 American 30090 45667 1.52 29.3 10.5 40 Total 102787 433616 4.22 100.0 100.0 548 Source: [11].

Table 3. Intensity of terrorist activity in Asian region in 1970–2012, number of terrorist attacks per year Region 1970–1979 1980–1989 1990–1999 2000–2009 2010–2012 Total (1970–2012) Asian 32 411 715 1087 2288 682 Source: [11]. activity in these two regions is characterized by a very The Asian region of terrorist activity stands out by high degree of concentration: countries of zone I (ter- the share of the global number of terrorist attacks and ritories with high terrorist activity intensity) account their victims—28.4 and 38.9%, respectively. Accord- for more than 90% of the total terrorist activity; ing to the number of major terrorist attacks, it is sec- zone II accounts for 4–5%; zone III, for about 1%. ond only to the Middle Eastern region. The average Two regions of terrorist activity—South African number of victims per terrorist act is higher than the and North African—are intense, forming, and large- world average (4.22 people/terrorist attack): 5.76 peo- scale. The first outburst of terrorism in them was ple/terrorist attack, which indicates large-scale terror- noted in the 1980s; the greatest intensity of terrorist ist activity. In total, 3.9 bn people live in the Asian acts has also observed in the last five years. The degree region. of terrorist activity concentration is lower than in other The high-intensity zone (zone I) of the Asian regions: 75–80% of the total terrorist activity is region is formed by the countries of South Asia: India, accounted for in zone I. Due to the “weakness” of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. zone I, the share of zone II is significant, 18–20% of The medium-intensity zone is formed by the countries total terrorist activity. of Southeast Asia. Terrorist activity is least manifested The European and American regions in the nature in zone III, formed by the countries of Central Asia. of terrorist activity are low-intensive, formed, and During the period from 1970 to 2012, 29 264 terror- small-scale. The maximum number of terrorist inci- ist incidents were recorded in the region: 682 terrorist dents occurred in the 1970–1980s. The average num- incidents per year. The highest intensity was recorded ber of victims per attack is almost three times lower in the 1990s, 715 terrorist incidents per year and in the than the global average. The peculiarity of the territo- subsequent decades of the 2000s, 1087 terrorist inci- rial structure is a high share of zone II in terms of the dents per year (Table 3). In the last three years, the number of terrorist attacks, 69.8%, and the number of intensity of terrorist activity has reached a maximum victims, 69.0%, in the European region; 21.8% of ter- level of 2288 terrorist incidents per year. rorist attacks and 21.0% of victims in the American region. Spatiotemporal analysis of the intensity of terrorist activity in the region (Fig. 3) shows a constant growth of terrorist activity, especially since the beginning of Characteristic Features of Terrorist Activity the 2000s, which is primarily caused by the situation in in the Asian Region Afghanistan and Pakistan. Realizing the multiscale principle, let us consider Terrorist activity in the Asian region is character- the spatiotemporal features of terrorist activity, in ized by a very high concentration 94.2 and 95.0% of addition to global, also at the regional level (using a the terrorist attacks and their victims, respectively, case study of the Asian region). accounted for the countries of zone I (Table 4). And

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(a) Dynamics of number of terrorist attacks in 1970–2012 (b) Share of major types of terrorist activity,% Number of attacks 4800 Number of attacks 4000 11 18 3200 69

2400 Number of victims 9 1600 19 68 800

0 religious (Islamic) separatist 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 extreme left religious (sects)

(c) Dynamics of intraregional structure of terrorist activity in 1970–2012 Number 1338 18 873 41 171 59 247 48 112 Elements of victims of territorial structure of region

Zone I Zone II Number 324 4107 7145 10 870 6863 Zone III of attacks

Fig. 3. Spatiotemporal features of terrorist activity in Asian region in 1970–2012. this ratio did not change during the period under ble socioeconomic situation in the countries of the review. Zone II accounts for only 4.4 and 3.7% of ter- region, its potential is quite large [18]. rorist attacks and victims in the region, and zone III, A distinctive feature of the Asian region is the for 1.4%, respectively. The average number of victims spread of a separatist type of terrorism. It accounts for per attack is also highest in the countries of zone I— almost one-fifth of all terrorist activity. The problem 5.81 people/terrorist attack. of separatism is acute for Sri Lanka, where for many years there has been a confrontation between the One of the catalysts of terrorism in the region is the Tamil minority and the Sinhalese majority. In some geopolitical tension between Pakistan and India. In cases, separatist terrorism mingles with Islamic terror- the course of this confrontation, terrorist methods are ism, which raises the issue of separating territories actively used, mainly by Pakistan. They are used in populated by Muslims. A similar situation has devel- frontier and disputed territories and in large cities in oped in some regions of China, the Philippines, and central India [13]. Thailand. The problem of separatism in multiethnic The main type of terrorist activity in the region is India is urgent. Polyethnicity and the complex politi- radical Islamic terrorism, which accounts for more cal situation lead to separatist sentiments—in the state of Punjab, in the eastern states on the border with than two-thirds of terrorist attacks and victims. It is Bangladesh and Bhutan. developed in Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the Taliban operates. Islamic terrorism is widespread at all Extreme left terrorism is also widespread in the territorial levels: zone I—Bangladesh, Philippines and region—it accounts for about 10% of terrorist activity. Thailand; zone II—Indonesia, Malaysia; zone III— It is typical of such countries as Nepal, India, Bhutan, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. and Laos. Because of the concentration of the Muslim popula- A unique type of terrorist activity that has spread in tion in the context of its radicalization and the unsta- Japan and South Korea is sectarian terrorism. It is

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Table 4. Intraregional structure of terrorist activity in Asian region in 1970–2012 Number Share Share Average number Number Structure Composition of terrorist of attacks of victims of victims of victims attacks in the region, % in the region, % per attack Zone I Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, 27569 160143 94.2 95.0 5.81 Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Thailand, Nepal, Tajikistan, Japan Zone II Cambodia, Myanmar, Indo- 1273 6158 4.4 3.7 4.84 nesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Malaysia Zone III China, Uzbekistan, Singa- 422 2281 1.4 1.4 5.41 pore, Bhutan, South Korea, Laos, Australia, Kyrgyzstan, Solomon Islands, Kazakh- stan, Vietnam Source: [11].

Table 5. Main indicators of terrorist activity in countries of zone I of Asian region in 1970–2012 Number Share Share Average number Average number Average number Number Country of terrorist of attacks of victims of victims of attacks of victims of victims attacks in world in world per attack per year per year Afghanistan 3973 28447 3.7 6.5 7.16 90.3 646.5 Pakistan 6447 40767 6.0 9.3 6.32 146.5 926.5 India 6848 32939 6.3 7.5 4.81 155.6 748.6 Source: [11]. associated with the activity of nonreligious sects, the gent in the country, the territorial dispute between flowering of which took place in the 1990s and India and Pakistan around the state of Jammu and resulted in one of the largest terrorist attacks in world Kashmir, and the widespread occurrence of separat- history in 1995 on the Tokyo subway, organized by the ism in India, especially in the state of Punjab. sect Aum Shinrikyo. Even after the adoption of harsh Analyzing the dynamics of the number of terrorist measures of struggle, religious sectarian terrorism attacks, we should note its similar character in remains relevant. Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is seen from almost For a deeper large-scale study of terrorist activity, it completely coinciding graphic lines since the late is important to consider the territorial features of ter- 1990s. This indicates close interpenetration of terrorist rorism in the main countries of zone I—Afghanistan, acts in the territory of both countries [15]. Pakistan, and India. At the moment, these countries India stands out against this backdrop with an ear- form one of the tensest territories in the world in terms lier manifestation of terrorist activity that began in the of terrorism. Here, on average, more than 2000 people 1980s. In the future, this activity was constantly at a a year fall victim to terror (Table 5). At the junction of significant level due to the development of the separat- the eastern provinces of Afghanistan, northern Paki- ist movement in the country. Up until the mid-2000s, stan, and the northwestern regions of India, more than India was ahead Pakistan and Afghanistan in scale of 30 major terrorist attacks have occurred over the past terrorist activity. decade alone. In Pakistan, terrorism developed a little later than Such a territorial concentration of terrorist activity in India, and was initially “warmed up,” mainly by the is due to such factors as the formation of the territory territorial dispute over the states of Jammu and Kash- at the junction of the borders of Pakistan and Afghan- mir. In Afghanistan, terrorist activity has increased istan uncontrolled by the central authority—the dramatically since the early 1990s, but before that, the unrecognized state of Waziristan, actually led by the country was in a state of civil war. Taliban, sociopolitical instability in Afghanistan, the Since the early 2000s, terrorist activity has been Taliban’s hybrid war against the peacekeeping contin- growing rapidly in all three countries, with Pakistan

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Table 6. Share of main forms of terrorist activity in Russia three countries. According to most indicators, it is in 1970–2013 ahead of its neighbors. According to experts, its terri- Form Number Share, % tory houses the largest part of the terrorist infrastruc- ture of radical Islamist groups in the region. Even the Kidnapping 79 3.8 very fact of detection and destruction of Osama bin Unarmed attack 20 1.0 Laden—terrorist no. 1—in Pakistan speaks about the Murder 246 11.7 place of this country in the terrorist pattern of the region and the world. Afghanistan is rapidly catching Armed attack 566 27.0 up with India in most of the terrorist activity indicators Explosion 1077 51.3 and is likely to overtake it with the departure of the Diversion 61 2.9 antiterrorist coalition forces stationed here since 2001. Hijacking of means of transport 23 1.1 Lastly, in India, with its multiethnicity and multifac- etedness, the threat of separatist terrorism remains Hostage taking 8 0.4 [20]. Others 18 0.9 Source: [11]. TERRITORIAL ASPECTS OF TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN RUSSIA Table 7. Main aims of terrorist activity in Russia in 1970–2013 The next territorial level after regions of terrorist Aims Number Share, % activity and their zones is individual countries and states. Let us consider the spatiotemporal features of Airports, aircrafts 19 0.9 terrorist activity in Russia, which refers to zone II of Telecommunications 12 0.6 the European terrorist region. The country accounts Tourists 3 0.1 for 1.75 and 1.91% of terrorist attacks and victims in the world, respectively. In terms of the absolute num- Engineering infrastructure 44 2.1 ber of terrorist attacks and victims, Russia is among Government 390 18.4 the top 20 countries in the world; in Europe it is sec- Law enforcement agencies 521 24.6 ond only to Spain and France in terms of the number Civilians 339 16.0 of terrorist attacks, and the leader in the European region in terms of the number of victims. Terrorists 4 0.2 In Russia for the period of 1991–2013, there were Political parties 2 0.1 1628 terrorist incidents involving 14 210 victims. The Diplomats 12 0.6 average number of victims per attack exceeds the aver- Media and journalists 30 1.4 age European level by 3 times, but it is almost equal to Military men 214 10.1 the global average (4.22 people/terrorist attack). According to the annual number of victims and terror- Non-profit private funds 21 1.0 ist attacks, Russia can also be attributed to territories Transport 170 8.0 with a high intensity of terrorist activity. Private business 193 9.1 Its main form in Russia, as well as in the whole Educational organizations 22 1.0 world, is bomb attack—51.3% (Table 6). A peculiarity Religious objects 74 3.5 of Russia is a reduced share of explosions with an Others 51 2.4 increased share of armed attacks—27.0%. This is due to the nature of the military conflict in , Source: [11]. which was close in essence to guerrilla actions and open armed clashes. and Afghanistan rapidly “overtaking” India. This is Because of this peculiarity, there is a rather pecu- mainly due to antiterrorist operations in Afghanistan, liar structure to the main goals, or objects, of terrorist which has had an ambiguous effect [14]. An even attacks. Almost a quarter (24.6%) fall on law enforce- greater increase in terrorist activity growth rates in ment agencies, followed by governments (18.4%) and Afghanistan and Pakistan in the beginning of 2010s is civilians (16.0%). Attention is also drawn to the share due to the actual loss of control by the authorities of of the military men—10.1% (Table 7). Such a structure confirms the thesis that, to the greatest extent, terrorist these countries over part of their territory, beginning activity was a “continuation” of military operations in of withdrawal forces of antiterrorist coalition from this the North Caucasus. region, as well as serious geopolitical changes that occurred in the world. According to our data, for the period of 1991–2013, there were 1628 terrorist incidents in Russia. Their vic- However, at the present time, Pakistan has become tims amounted to 14 210 people. Terrorist activity was the first in the scales of terrorist activity among the recorded in 48 federal subjects. The development of

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Table 8. Number of terrorist attacks and their victims in federal subjects in 1991–2013 Number of victims Federal subject Number of terrorist attacks of terrorist attacks, people Republic of 603 2890 Chechen Republic 392 3036 Republic of Ingushetia 173 918 Moscow 149 2329 Kabardino-Balkar Republic 59 299 Republic of North Ossetia–Alania 47 2034 Stavropol krai 34 1382 St. Petersburg 22 26 Karachay-Cherkess Republic 18 20 Volgograd oblast 13 146 Moscow oblast 10 253 Astrakhan oblast 9 92 Krasnodar Krai 8 70 Rostov oblast 7 262 Republic of Tatarstan 7 15 Source: [11]. terrorism in modern Russia has certain geographical indicator confirmed the thesis about the low intensity features. The simplest idea of them can give quantita- of terrorist activity in the majority of Russian regions tive indicators of the number of terrorist attacks and covered by it. their victims by the federal subjects. The greatest num- Thus, two areas of increased terrorist activity are ber of terrorist acts and their victims falls on the formed: Southern Russian, located in the territory of regions of the North Caucasus and Moscow (Table 8). the North Caucasus and Southern federal districts, Of the 48 federal subjects where terrorist incidents and Central Russian, formed in Moscow and Moscow were recorded, terrorist activity is relevant only for 15. oblast and geographically developing in the north- This is almost all the subjects of the North Caucasus western direction along the Moscow–St. Petersburg (except for Adygea), the Volga region (Astrakhan and axis. Volgograd oblast, the Republic of Tatarstan), the fed- The Central Russian region of terrorist activity is eral cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and Moscow inferior in all respects to the Southern Russian region, oblast. Terrorist activity has been spreading in the accounting for 12.9% of terrorist attacks and 20.8% of Volga region, the Urals, and Siberia. However, here it their victims in the country (Table 9). Terrorism in should be noted that, first, it has an episodic, some- most cases has an external origin and is caused for times random character; second, it has often been political reasons—the status of Moscow and St. associated with criminal activity and represented by Petersburg. While carrying out terrorist acts in these acts of individual terrorism. Therefore, it is necessary cities, as a rule large-scale ones, terrorists expect to to understand that in practice, terrorist activity is con- influence the population of the entire country. A char- fined to a fairly narrow list of territories. acteristic feature of terrorist activity in this region is The process of allocating the territorial structure of the commission of terrorist acts exclusively against terrorist activity in Russia required the introduction of civilians. The most vulnerable to terrorist attacks is the an integral indicator of the intensity level of terrorist transport infrastructure, as well as places of mass con- activity in the region, based on the same indicators as gestion and residence of people. Geographically, the for other countries. As a result, seven federal subjects Central Russian region of terrorist activity is more with a high intensity of terrorist activity were singled extensive and covers the territories of the Central, out, six of them in the North Caucasus—the republics Northwestern, and Volga federal districts. Moscow is of Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan, North Ossetia, a zone of high-intensity terrorist activity comparable the Kabardino-Balkar Republic, and Stavropol krai— to the North Caucasian republics. Zone II includes as well as Moscow. Geographically, the regions with a St. Petersburg, Moscow, Tver, and Samara oblasts, medium level of intensity are directly adjacent to the characterized by a medium intensity of terrorist activ- regions of the previous group. The only exceptions are ity. For the rest of the regions, terrorist activity was Samara oblast and St. Petersburg. Lastly, the integral only episodic.

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Table 9. Indicators of Russian terrorist regions in 1991–2013 Number Number Share Share Average number Terrorist region of terrorist attacks of victims of terrorist attacks, % of victims, % of victims per attack Southern Russian region 1363 11149 83.7 78.5 8.2 Central Russian region 209 2961 12.9 20.8 14.1 Other federal subjects 56 100 3.4 0.7 1.8 Source: [11].

The Southern Russian region of terrorist activity is and 26.1% of victims. Stavropol krai and North Osse- characterized by the greatest severity of terrorism. It tia-Alania became a zone of “transfer” terrorism and, accounts for up to 80% of terrorist attacks and their in the number of victims of terrorist attacks, are at the victims in Russia [4]. A network of terrorist groups same level as the republics of zone I. The number of operates directly in its territory, the activity of which terrorist attacks in their territory is much smaller, but can extend beyond its borders. The development of some of them were of a large scale with a large number terrorism in it forms a “terrorist situation” in the of human victims. The greatest intensity is observed in country. Solution of terrorism in this region will also large cities and in territories of strategic importance: make it possible to solve this problem in the future political and administrative centers, transport hubs, within the entire country. and resorts. In particular, in Stavropol krai large, ter- The main factors of terrorist activity in the region rorist attacks have occurred in Budennovsk (1 terrorist are equally geopolitical, consisting of regional and act, 566 victims), Stavropol (8 terrorist attacks, 54 vic- global strategic importance of southern Russia; socio- tims), Pyatigorsk (8 terrorist attacks, 247 victims), economic, manifested in the low standard of living Mineralnye Vody (7 terrorist attacks, 211 victims), the and lifestyle features of the region’s population; and industrial center of Nevinnomyssk (2 terrorist attacks, ethno-religious, due to the multiethnicity and multi- 36 victims). denomination of people in southern Russia. In North Ossetia–Alania, terrorist attacks have The Southern Russian region consists of subjects of occurred in the conflict-prone Prigorodny district and the North Caucasus and Southern federal districts, all in the cities of Vladikavkaz (26 terrorist attacks, 70 vic- of which are characterized by a high and medium level tims), Beslan (2 terrorist attacks, 1089 victims), and of terrorist activity—with the exception of Adygea and Mozdok (6 terrorist attacks, 183 victims). By the Kalmykia, where no terrorist activity has been nature of the acts, the Kabardino-Balkar Republic is recorded. close to the republics of zone I, but according to statis- The main feature of terrorist activity is its concen- tical indicators, it is classified as a region of zone II. tration in zone I (in three republics—Chechnya, The local population is involved in terrorist activity, Ingushetia, and Dagestan), which accounts for 63.1% and the heavy criminal situation, in turn, feeds terror- of all terrorist attacks in Russia and 83.8% of terrorist ism. There were also major terrorist attacks, e.g., the attacks in the region (the indicators for the number of terrorist attack on Nalchik in 2005 (144 victims). victims are 44.8% and 58.7%, respectively). The main The low-intensity zone of terrorist activity, in terrorist infrastructure is located in their territories, which manifestations of terrorism have an episodic and the local population serves for the recruitment nature, includes Krasnodar krai; Rostov, Volgograd, into terrorist groups. Criminal activity associated with and Astrakhan oblasts; and Karachaevo-Cherkessia. terrorism is also concentrated here. It accounts for 7.6% of terrorist attacks and 15.2% of It was here that the country’s main “terrorist axis” their victims in the southern Russia. At the same time, was formed, the space of systematic terrorist acts. It major terrorist acts have also been committed here— stretches from Nazran through the central districts of the explosion of a residential building in Volgodonsk Chechnya, Grozny, and Gudermes, further to Dages- in 1999 (202 victims), a series of terrorist attacks in tan through Khasavyurt along the Kavkaz federal Volgograd in 2013 (125 victims). highway to Makhachkala, and then through the Ser- gokala district to Izberbash. Large cities in Chechnya, Terrorism in southern Russia has gone through Ingushetia, and Dagestan form a kind of support three periods of development: separatist (1991–1998), framework of the North Caucasian terrorist network. religious extremist (1999–2005), and religious-diver- The terrorist activity in them is the most intense. sion (2006 to the present). The medium intensity zone is made up of Stav- Separatist terrorism manifested itself as diversions ropol krai, North Ossetia–Alania, and Kabardino- and was directed against the federal armed forces. The Balkaria, where the indicators of terrorist activity are number of terrorist attacks and their victims compared also very high. It accounts for 8.6% of terrorist attacks to the subsequent period was not great.

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However, already in this period, the main geo- in the number of terrorist attack victims. Major acts of graphic features of terrorism in the region began to terrorism were committed in Stavropol krai, North form. The main feature of the geography of terrorism Ossetia, and Rostov oblast. As a result, for the rela- is its concentration in the republics. According to the tively small number of terrorist attacks, these regions number of terrorist attacks in the period of 1991–1998, are on the same level in relative qualitative indicators the Chechen Republic was in first place, which was of terrorism and sometimes ahead of regions, in which due to the military conflict in the republic. In terrorist organizations function directly. Chechnya itself, Grozny, as a capital city, stood out in In 2006–2007, the intensity of terrorist activity was terms of the number of terrorist acts. Most of the ter- rather low. At that time, the terrorist movement was rorist acts in the republic were committed in the experiencing a certain crisis. However, since 2008, mountainous districts of Urus-Martan, Shali, new growth of terrorist activity in the region began, Vedeno, and Nozhai-Yurt, where separatist ideas and there have been noticeable changes in the tactics received the greatest support. However, a significant of North Caucasian terrorists. The attacks became less part of terrorist attacks took place in the plains of public, more like acts of diversion. Among the ranks of Chechnya—the Shelkovskaya and Naurskaya dis- terrorists there are no clearly expressed leaders. tricts, where the share of the Russian population was significant and separatism received less support. How- Chechnya has lost its leading position in the level of ever, in neighboring republics, terrorism became quite development of terrorism. Huge amounts of funding widespread. from the federal center significantly improved the socioeconomic situation in the country. At the begin- The number of victims of terrorist attacks, as well as ning of April 2009, the counterterrorist operation some qualitative indicators of terrorism in the regions, regime that had been operating in the republic since complements the geographical picture of terrorism in 1999 was abolished. Under these conditions, the num- southern Russia. According to the number of victims, ber of terrorist attacks has actually decreased, but it is Chechnya is only third after Stavropol krai and Dages- still premature to talk about eradicating terrorism. tan. The largest terrorist attacks of this period were Terrorism’s center of gravity has moved to regions committed by Chechens, but outside the Chechen neighboring Chechnya, primarily Ingushetia—one of conflict in Budennovsk and . There is an orig- the poorest regions in Russia, which favors the devel- inal model of terrorism, in which it is subversive in opment of terrorism. As a result, in a short time, zone I, and the largest terrorist acts are committed almost the entire territory of the republic was sub- outside zone I. jected to terrorist attacks. Ingushetia has taken the lead The second stage began with a large-scale terrorist in both absolute and relative indicators. Radical Isla- action: the invasion of militants in Dagestan in August mist ideas are also quite strong in another North Cau- 1999. In parallel with the open military confrontation casian republic, Dagestan. Together with the complex with federal forces, terrorists managed to commit a interethnic and political relations in this republic, ter- number of major terrorist attacks in the form of explo- rorism has also become widespread. In recent times, sion of residential buildings in Moscow, Volgodonsk the incidence of acts of terrorism in the Kabardino- and Buinaksk. Terrorism achieved the highest degree Balkar Republic has increased. Terrorists do not of development in 2000–2003, both in the region and refrain from the tactics of transferring terrorism: in the in the country. With the exception of Moscow, almost North Caucasus region, this was manifested in a series all terrorist attacks were then confined to southern of explosions in Stavropol, Pyatigorsk, and Vladika- Russia. vkaz. The geography of terrorism in the second period has significantly expanded. As in the period of 1991– CONCLUSIONS 1998, terrorism was confined mainly to the Chechen Republic. At the same time, its scale has grown so (1) Terrorism is one of the most complex contem- much that virtually all areas of Chechnya, and espe- porary problems of society, and it is studied in the cially the cities, have been targeted by terrorist attacks. framework of many scientific disciplines. Geographi- Terrorist activity spread from Chechnya to neighbor- cal science can contribute to the study of terrorist ing Ingushetia and Dagestan. The Republic of activity as well. A tool of geographical knowledge of Ingushetia practically merged with Chechnya in a ter- terrorism is the concept of territorial structure. rorist manner. In Dagestan, mainly the areas border- (2) In the spatial aspect, the main features of ter- ing Chechnya and major cities, headed by the capital, rorist activity are territorial concentration and territo- Makhachkala, suffered from terrorist acts. rial differentiation. Six corresponding regions have The transfer of terrorist activity outside southern been identified by an integrated indicator of the inten- Russia, in particular to Moscow, and also to neighbor- sity of terrorist activity. ing non-Muslim regions was especially characteristic (3) The Asian region of terrorist activity is one of of the terrorism of this period. In certain years, Mos- the largest; terrorist activity is highly concentrated cow was not inferior to the North Caucasian republics here. Together with the Middle East, the Asian region

REGIONAL RESEARCH OF RUSSIA Vol. 7 No. 4 2017 REGIONAL FEATURES OF THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE 383 forms a single space that concentrates more than half 5. Geograficheskoe polozhenie i territorial’nye struktury: the terrorist activity in the world. The main type of ter- Pamyati I.M. Maergoiza (Geographic Position and Ter- rorist activity in the region is Islamic terrorism, which ritorial Structures: In Memoriam of I.M. Maergoiz), accounts for more than two-thirds of terrorist attacks Polian, P.M. and Treivish, A.I., Eds., Moscow: Novyi and victims. A distinctive feature of the Asian region is Khronograf, 2012. the spread of separatist terrorism. 6. Gladkii, Yu.N., Globalism: a difficult way of develop- ment, Mirovaya Ekon. Mezhd. Otnosheniya, 1994, (4) There are two regions in the territorial structure no. 10, pp. 104–116. of terrorist activity in Russia: Central Russian and, 7. Gorkin, A.P., Geografiya. Sovremennaya illyustrirovan- especially, Southern Russian. The leading place, both naya entsiklopediya (Geography: Modern Illustrated in terms of key indicators and its characteristic fea- Encyclopedia), Moscow: Rosmen, 2006. tures, is occupied by the Southern Russian region. 8. Davydov, V.N. and Su Min, Military-politic features of Recently, the number of terrorist attacks on its terri- international terrorism, Vestn. Univ. Druzhby Nar. im. tory has increased, with an insignificant number of Patrisa Lumumby, Ser. Polit., 2006, no. 1 (6), pp. 21–36. victims. There is a centralization of terrorist activity in 9. Ol’shanskii, D., Psikhologiya terrorizma (Psychology of the Southern Russian region, but the potential danger Terrorism), St. Petersburg: Piter, 2002. of terrorism persists in many regions of the country. 10. Polian, P.M., Territorial’nye struktury-urbanizatsiya- (5) In the Southern Russian region, there were rasselenie: teoreticheskie podkhody i metody izucheniya three periods of development of terrorist activity. Geo- (Territorial Structures–Urbanization–Settlement Pat- graphically, the terrorism of 1991–1998 was associated tern: Theory and Practice), Moscow: Novyi Khro- with the Chechen Republic and with the military con- nograf, 2014. flict there. It manifested itself in the form of major ter- 11. National consortium for the Study of Terrorism and rorist attacks in Chechnya’s neighboring regions, pri- Responses to Terrorism (START), US Department of marily in Dagestan and Stavropol krai. At the second Homeland Security Center of Excellence, University of stage of development of terrorism (1999–2005), the Maryland. http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd. Chechen Republic remained the geographical center 12. Trebin, M.P., Terrorizm v XXI veke (Terrorism in 21st of terrorism in the region, but it was not alone. It was Century), Minsk: Kharvest, 2004. joined by neighboring Ingushetia and Dagestan, and 13. Yakovlev, A.Yu., Indian terrorism: past and present, the main regions were North Ossetia and Stavropol Vlast’, 2009, no. 5, pp. 50–53. krai. At the third stage of development, which began in 14. Bergesen, A.J. and Lizardo, O., International terrorism 2006, there has been a decrease in the indicators of ter- and the world-system, Sociol. Theory, 2004, no. 2, rorist activity in the region. Geographically, this was pp. 38–52. doi 10.1111/j.1467-9558.2004.00203.x reflected in the reduction of the role of Chechnya and 15. Flint, C., Terrorism and counterterrorism: geographic the transfer of major terrorist activity to Dagestan and research questions and agendas, Prof. Geogr., 2003, Ingushetia. vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 161–169. doi 10.1111/0033-0124. 5502004 16. Jenkins, B., International Terrorism: A New Kind of REFERENCES Warfare, Santa Monica: RAND, 1974. 1. Aleinikov, M.V., Terrorism as a form of political strug- 17. Laqueur, W., The Age of Terrorism, Boston: Little and gle, Vopr. Gumanit. Nauk, 2006, no. 2, pp. 359–363. Brown, 1987. 2. Antonyan, Yu.M. and Davitadze, M.D., Etnoreligio- 18. Medina, R.M. and Hepner, G.F., The Geography of znye konflikty: problemy, resheniya (Ethnic–Religious International Terrorism: An Introduction to Spaces and Conflicts: Problems and Solutions), Moscow: Shchit- Places of Violent Non-State Groups, Boca Raton, FL: M, 2004. CRC, 2013. 3. Aras, D., Terrorizm vchera, segodnya i naveki (Terror- 19. Schmid, A.P., Political Terrorism: A Research Guide to ism: Past, Present, and Forever), Baku: SADA, 2003. Concepts, Theories, Data Bases and Literature, New Brunswick, 1983. 4. Belozerov, V.S. and Suprunchuk, I.P., Geografiya ter- rorizma: polimasshtabnyi analiz terroristicheskoi deya- 20. Toft, M.D., The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity, tel’nosti. Informatsionno-analiticheskii atlas (Geogra- Interests, and the Indivisibility of Territory, Princeton: phy of Terrorism: Polyscale Analysis of Terroristic Princeton Univ. Press, 2006. Activity: Information-Analytic Atlas), Polyan, P.M., Ed., Stavropol: Sev.-Kavk. Fed. Univ., 2012. Translated by S. Avodkova

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