ASEAN @ 50. Mid-life crisis? Report card: Malaysia in the UN Clouds over Korea: Can Moon bring What crisis? Bunn Nagara P8 Security Council P20 back the Sunshine? Jaehyon Lee P16

Institute of Strategic & International Studies (isis) Malaysia fPP 5054/11/2012 (031098) cus2/2017 Issue No. 5 RM15

AMERICA First By Elina Noor & Dato’ Steven CM Wong / About Us /

Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia The Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia was established on 8 April 1983 as an autonomous, not-for-profit research organisation.

ISIS Malaysia has a diverse research focus which includes economics, foreign the Network of East Asian Think-Tanks (NEAT), the Network of ASEAN-China policy, security studies, nation-building, social policy, technology, innovation Think Tanks (NACT), the ASEAN-India Network of Think Tanks (AINTT), and environmental studies. It also undertakes research collaboration with and the Silk Road Think Tank Network (SiLKS). ISIS Malaysia is a founding national and international organisations in important areas such as national member of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific CSCAP( ) development and international affairs. and manages the Council’s Secretariat.

ISIS Malaysia engages actively in Track Two diplomacy, and promotes the As the country’s premier think tank, ISIS Malaysia has been at the forefront exchange of views and opinions at both the national and international levels. of some of the most significant nation-building initiatives in Malaysia’s history. The Institute has also played a role in fostering closer regional integration and It was a contributor to the Vision 2020 concept and was consultant to the international cooperation through forums and networks such as the Asia- Knowledge-Based Economy Master Plan initiative. It also produced the first Pacific Roundtable (APR), the ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International ever National Interest Analysis to be undertaken on Malaysia’s participation in Studies (ASEAN-ISIS), the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

Institute of Strategic and International t: +603 2693 9366 Institute of Strategic and International Studies (ISIS) Malaysia f: +603 2691 5435 Studies (ISIS) Malaysia 1 Persiaran Sultan Salahuddin e: [email protected] PO Box 12424 w: www.isis.org.my @ ISIS_MY 50778 Kuala Lumpur Contents Editorial Letter

first hundred days of the The Trump administration have already passed, and the new presidency continues to surprise and sometimes confound both friends and rivals. The firing of FBI director James Comey is a recent example that saw some praise Trump for taking decisive action, while others in Congress, on both sides of the aisle, expressed concern at the almost 2 The Pivot is Dead… 14 Malaysia & North Korea: unprecedented dismissal of an official who (Long Live the Pivot?) A Peculiar Relationship Unravels had been investigating the Commander in Elina Noor argues that while President Obama’s The time for benign neglect is over, writes Chief himself. rebalance to Asia is officially over, quite what Shahriman Lockman. Kuala Lumpur must In Asia, Trump has reversed his early approach the new White House will take to strictly apply UN sanctions and heightened questioning of the One China policy, but then the region is unclear, although it will involve a scrutiny to a country that has taken startled South Korea, a longstanding ally, by far greater emphasis on America’s interests. advantage of our openness and friendliness saying the country would have to pay for the Will President Trump’s transactional approach newly installed THAAD missile system – a yield unexpected results – or uncertainty and 16 The Winner Takes It All demand quickly walked back by National instability? South Korea’s election was one of the most Security Adviser HR McMaster. Elina Noor extraordinary for years. But how will the asks whether the president’s ambiguity is a 6 America & Malaysia: new president balance neighbours with strategy in itself, and attempts to pin down Still Partners? contradictory agendas while pursuing his own what exactly Donald Trump means for the What does the official bilateral relationship path to peace and security? By Jaehyon Lee region, while Dato’ Steven Wong assesses the between the two countries actually mean? state of the US-Malaysia relationship going Malaysia could still be a useful ally to the US, 20 Malaysia in the Security forward. but ties could wither if we enter a period of Council – How did we do? Regardless of America’s role, this year strategic indifference, writes Dato’ Steven CM Harris Zainul and Tengku Nur Qistina survey will see a big focus on ASEAN, especially as Wong the two-year tenure, from its “crowning its 50th anniversary in August approaches. glory” to the limits of what a non-permanent Bunn Negara looks back on the last half 8 ASEAN at 50: Misunderstood, member can actually do century and finds critics too ready to dismiss maligned & middle-aged a considerable record of achievement. Understanding ASEAN is to appreciate what 22 Malaysia’s Own Pivot in Thomas Daniel considers whether ASEAN it is, what it is not, and why it simply had to be. West Asia should expand or not – and Sholto Byrnes If you don’t think there’s a lot to celebrate, you Increased closeness with Saudi Arabia may says the organisation should be commended don’t get it, says Bunn Nagara be good for the Hajj quota, but what about for not following the overhasty approach of Iran’s role in Islamic banking and finance? the EU. 12 Room for one more? asks Amalina Anuar With a take on Malaysia’s record in the The ten nation association can only get so UN Security Council, articles on North and big without becoming an entirely different 24 The EU at 60 South Korea, and a report on Malaysia’s organisation. But Thomas Daniel thinks that – A most unhappy birthday shifting priorities in West Asia, we hope Timor-Leste joining makes sense A democratic deficit was the European that you find much to enjoy – and possibly Union’s problem from the start, writes Sholto provoke – in this issue of Focus. Byrnes. People who said ASEAN should follow its example have had a lucky escape The Editors

Editorial Board Design by Carl Bergman Dato’ Steven CM Wong, Deputy Chief Executive Elina Noor, Director Published by the Institute of Strategic and International Firdaos Rosli, Director Studies (ISIS) Malaysia Bunn Nagara, Senior Fellow Sholto Byrnes, Senior Fellow 1 Persiaran Sultan Salahuddin Sathish Govind, Senior Analyst PO Box 12424, 50778 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Joann Saw, Publications Executive

/ US-Asia /

The pivot is dead... (Long Live the Pivot?)

President Obama’s successor has no intention of continuing the much- heralded rebalance to Asia. Will Donald Trump’s ambiguity fuel instability – or could his fresh approach help solve long-running & intractable conflicts?

By Elina Noor

onald Rumsfeld may have been on to something that it would be “only America first” from that day forward. when, in 2002, he presented his theory of For Asia, this means the end at least nominally of the Dunderstanding the world through the knowledge “pivot” or “rebalance” as we knew it under the Obama trifecta of “known knowns”, or the things we know we know; administration. To be sure, and lest we in Asia kid “known unknowns”, or knowing there are some things we ourselves, the rebalance strategy was first and foremost do not know; and “unknown unknowns”, or not being aware about the United States. But it appealed to the region’s of the things we do not know. stakeholders because it was assembled and championed as At the time, of course, the neologism seemed comical if an inclusive package by two powerful forces: an experienced not absurd: a caricature of the case the 43rd president of Asia-focused team at the US Department of State, led by the United States and his administration were struggling Secretary Hillary Clinton, who understood the strategic to build around Iraq, weapons of mass destruction and importance of Asia to America’s future; and the US’s first terrorists to justify an invasion. In hindsight, however, the self-declared “Pacific president” who had spent part of his Rumsfeldian logic seems a strangely apt framework to grasp formative years in Southeast Asia. the volatility emanating from President Donald J Trump’s In all fairness, the US’s rebalance strategy was not White House after its first 100 days. unveiled until 2011, nearly three years after President After all, with a foreign policy approach and Obama took office in 2009. In the absence of a stated establishment that is still unfolding in fits and starts, it policy towards Asia under the Trump administration, we makes sense to start with what we know. There are at have temporarily been assured in speech and in action of least five certainties with regard to the implications for America’s commitment to remain engaged and active in Asia. Beyond these, we must grapple with understanding the region, or at least in Northeast Asia. There have been and anticipating the various shades of grey blackening cabinet-level visits between the United States and all the or whitening out in turns with each Executive Order, Northeast Asian states it has ties with, and President Trump presidential tweet, or summit read-out. has met with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and President Xi Jinping of China. Even threatened rollbacks First, we know that the Trump administration is committed on longstanding US policy vis-à-vis China and Taiwan to an America First foreign policy that prioritises American have since returned to the status quo. If Deputy Assistant interests and national security. This is neither unusual nor Secretary of State Susan Thornton’s remarks are anything unnatural. All countries put their national interests and to go by, a Trump formulation of the US’s Asia policy will security ahead of others, even if they do not always express it be more of the same with a pronounced results-oriented, quite so bluntly as when Trump declared at his inauguration transactional twist. Already, there has been an emphasis on

2 focus

/ US-Asia /

extracting more from allies and partners in exchange for a it eventually made it there) demonstrated US commitment continued security guarantee. to its treaty allies, but unsettling at the same time because of Asia is no stranger to pragmatism in its dealings with the heightened risk of miscalculation. It used to be that the larger powers so it will adapt to Trump’s transactionalism, North Korean leadership was the only unpredictable factor as it already has begun to. But processes are as important, in the equation. That factor is now multiplied by the end of if not more so, than results in Asia, and the art of the deal US “strategic patience” and Trump’s chaos theory. The US will have to take into account “face” for foreign policy variable is expected to be tempered by the level-headedness transactionalism to be effective in the region. and experience of Secretary of Defence James Mattis and National Security Adviser HR McMaster, but the bigger Second, we know that the Trump administration places appetite for bluster and brinkmanship from both the United “peace through strength” at the core of that policy, to be States and North Korea now raises the ante for the whole effected by a US$54 billion increase in proposed defence region. File under “known unknowns”. spending drawn from equivalent cuts across other agencies. This figure would constitute a 10 percent boost for the Third, we know that the Trump administration’s highest military, the largest since Ronald Reagan’s administration. priority will be defeating Daesh and similar (read: “radical The message of “strength, security and resolve” prioritises Islamic”) terror groups. This offers a practical point of US military deterrence and dominance at the expense of convergence for cooperation with Southeast Asia given diplomacy, foreign aid and soft power leadership. If Trump the shared threat. The White House has identified specific has his way, peace and stability will be advanced and paid for areas in which to work with international partners, by an unabashedly hard power budget. including cutting off funding for terrorist groups, expanding Asia has already had a preview of this strength and resolve intelligence sharing, and disrupting and disabling online under the Trump administration. It is both reassuring and propaganda and recruitment. But even countering unsettling; reassuring because actions like the dispatch of terrorism − a cause every nation can agree on in principle the USS Carl Vinson towards the Korean Peninsula (when − is not without its pitfalls and blowbacks, particularly

4 focus if efforts are disproportionately premised on aggressive House, the rest of Asia is left to wonder about three (-and- military operations and appear to be selectively targeted a-half) questions. One, who will lead foreign policy in the based on religion. White House? Two, will this policy be led by exclusionist or Southeast Asia, home to the world’s largest Muslim moderating voices? Three, will the United States have an population and to veteran nations that have combatted Asia-specific policy under this administration? If so, who violent ideologies of different stripes for more than half a will craft it? century, has proven a willing and committed partner to the Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may be an untested United States and others in countering terrorism. When diplomat. However, one could argue that he brings to the United States turned to Southeast Asia in the aftermath his position niche experience in foreign affairs having of the 11 September 2001 attacks, treating it as the second negotiated complex cross-border deals with world and front in the Global War on Terrorism, the region grimaced at business leaders while at ExxonMobil. In his new role, he the focus of this attention, yet offered its closest cooperation has so far been reticent on actual foreign policy and, by his to the United States. own admission, is “not a big media access person”. Similarly, Any meaningful counter-terrorism engagement that is neither Trump nor his closest White House advisers have folded into an Asia policy under the Trump administration government or foreign policy experience. In fact, that should take the demographics and socio-political context was part of the reason he was elected − as a break from of Southeast Asia holistically into account. Short-handed Washington’s normal modus operandi. references like “radical Islamic extremism” that play well to Asia may not need another pivot or rebalance. We got the US domestic political gallery reverberate with meaning on fine for decades without one, and even when some and intent to the far reaches of Southeast Asia. Similarly, in the region bristled, or felt politically neglected or whether extreme immigration vetting procedures actually abandoned by the United States under the George HW amount to Trump’s campaign promise to enact a “Muslim Bush administration, working level ties continued to ban” is irrelevant. In countering violent extremism, be solid in the diplomatic, investment, and defence and perceptions equal reality. The rhetoric against Muslims security realms. It was certainly nice to be showered with is not only ready fodder for extremist recruiters but US attention for five whole years as part of the Obama alienates the overwhelming majority of Muslims who are administration rebalance. One of the greatest under-told frustratingly dismissed as never doing enough to counter and hard-to-measure success stories of that strategy radicalisation. was its investment in, and outreach to, Southeast Asia’s future through the State Department’s Young Southeast Fourth, Trump has made his views about multilateral trade Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI). This programme will arrangements, specifically the Trans-Pacific Partnership reap dividends in the future contributing to the progress (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreement of this region and the United States in unquantifiable, (NAFTA), very clear. Just two days after taking his oath non-transactional ways. Goodwill, capacity and amity are of office, the president directed his still-to-be-confirmed difficult line items for any budget but soft power is still hard nominee for US Trade Representative to withdraw from the currency in this part of the world. TPP and to focus instead on bilateral trade negotiations to So, it was heartening to note Vice President Mike Pence’s promote American industry, protect American workers and meeting with YSEALI participants during his April trip raise American wages. to Indonesia and his acknowledgement of it as a “great That there was no Plan B within the United States programme” contributing towards the bright future of to replace the TPP as the economic underpinning of a Southeast Asia. successful Asia policy and a strategic tool of trade was We do not quite know how America First will play out in bad enough. But the gaping void left by the demise of the practice throughout Trump’s time in office. All American TPP raises the question of whether bilateral deals will be presidents set out to be a change agent as they ride into sufficient in an economically interdependent environment office on a popular − or populist − wave of support. As and whether the gap left by the United States will be filled outliers, Trump and his team could well bring refreshing by other powers. Of course, it provides an opportunity institutional change to international affairs. In the process, for ASEAN to consolidate its Regional Comprehensive long intractable tensions, such as the Korean Peninsula Economic Partnership (RCEP) and to lend heft to its own issue, the South China Sea dispute, even the Israeli- ambitions for leadership and centrality. However, the Palestinian conflict, might be resolved. However, Trump’s reality is that RCEP is likely to proceed at the level of the much-touted tactic of strategic ambiguity, whether by lowest common denominator and the intellectual vision for deliberation or default, is already leading to uncertainty, a free trade agreement of the Asia Pacific will be outlined which in turn, contributes towards instability. This may by China. This is not necessarily a bad thing for the region, yield favourable outcomes for one party in a business deal but it surely represents an erosion of the United States’s but international relations simply cannot be a zero sum

intended stewardship in this area. game. The stakes are far too high. That much we know.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE

The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia Fifth, we know that people make policy. While factious

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 developments play out in the inner sanctum of the White Elina Noor is Director of Foreign Policy and Security Studies, ISIS MalaysiaConference Room, ISIS Malaysia / US-Asia / America & Malaysia: still partners?

The Trump administration has so far sent mixed signals about its engagement with Asia. What issues will define its relationship with Malaysia?

For US-Malaysia relations, three significant By issues stand out going forward. The first is Malaysia’s annual rankings in Dato’ Steven CM Wong the Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report issued by the US State Department. The TIP Report is regarded as one of the most extensive and S President Donald Trump has tried to November ASEAN Summit and East Asia authoritative reports in its field and is widely pursue his change agenda but had to Summit in Manila provides a ray of hope that quoted and reported among academics, Ucontend with the realities of national the Trump administration recognises the research institutions and the media. and global leadership. Where he has been need for continued engagement with ASEAN. In 2015, Malaysia was upgraded from influential is in ordering or authorising military Whether this proves to be the case will remain Tier 3 to the Tier 2 Watch List, a fact that engagements. These include the botched to be seen. did not sit well with certain members of the Yemen raid against Al Qaeda soon after taking US Congress, including Republican Senator office, the use of the Massive Ordnance Air Many Malaysians might have wished for Bob Corker, current Chair of the Senate Blast (MOAB) bomb in Afghanistan, the missile a Democrat president, given the personal Foreign Relations Committee, Democratic attack against the Syrian government’s airfield charisma of, and the attention they received Senator Bob Menendez, former chair of the said to house chemical weapons, and ordering from, former president Barack Obama, but same committee, and Republican Senator the USS Carl Vinson Strike Group to the Trump’s surprise win was not entirely negative. Marco Rubio. The allegation then was that Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea’s Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Najib Razak had once the decision was unmerited and had been missile tests. partnered Trump in a golf game (that they politicised by the Obama administration in The Trump administration has, at least won) and exchanged phone calls before the order to enable Malaysia to participate in the temporarily, helped assuage regional fears US presidential race. On the morning after Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). with the visits of Secretary of State Rex Trump’s victory, Prime Minister Najib tweeted The Tier 2 Watch List applies to countries Tillerson and Vice President Mike Pence, his congratulations to him; later they spoke that do not meet minimum US legal standards. and the successful holding of the US-ASEAN and said that they would work together to They are, however, making “significant Ministerial Meeting in early May. Pence’s strengthen the US-Malaysia comprehensive efforts to bring themselves into compliance”. announcement that Trump will attend the partnership. They are further defined as: (i) numbers of

6 focus severely trafficked persons are significant of terrorism, and on which it imposes a expanded market access, lowered trade or significantly rising; (ii) there is a failure wide range of sanctions, would already be barriers, or increased United States exports”. to provide increasing evidence of efforts noteworthy. With claims that the DPRK had The Secretary of Commerce, the USTR and to combat severe forms of trafficking; and successfully tested a hydrogen bomb in early other heads of executive departments and (iii) they are making significant country 2016, and with almost monthly missile tests agencies, as appropriate, “shall take every commitments in the year ahead. since President Trump took office, the US appropriate and lawful action to address The 2016 TIP Report highlighted the need administration has announced an end to its violations of trade law, abuses of trade law, or for anti-trafficking laws allowing greater policy of strategic patience and that “all options instances of unfair treatment”. freedoms of movement for trafficking victims are on the table”. The positioning of the Carl Malaysia is one of 16 countries that run and opportunities for legal employment; Vinson Strike Group in the East China Sea (at surpluses against the United States. According and greater work rights, remedies and legal the time of writing) has ratcheted up tensions to US Department of Commerce data, the recourses – not just for victims of smuggling in the Korean Peninsula. trade deficit with Malaysia amounted to $24.8 and trafficking, but also for foreign workers, billion in 2016, while Malaysia’s Ministry against traffickers and employers. Malaysia All ASEAN countries have diplomatic of International Trade and Industry places needs to demonstrate that there is a relations with North Korea and five have its surplus with the United States at only comprehensive and sincere effort, within our embassies in Pyongyang. This led Secretary $6.2 billion. This discrepancy, together with limitations, to address all these concerns. of State Tillerson to call for ASEAN to ensure the wide terms of reference in the Order, in The 2017 TIP edition is expected in June “leak-proof” enforcement of sanctions particular, the bilateral effects of what the of this year and Malaysian officials are quietly against North Korea, as well as to minimise United States interprets as “unfair practices” confident that our ranking will be maintained. their diplomatic relations so that its nuclear on US workers, exports and surpluses, are Efforts to combat trafficking have been stepped aspirations do not benefit from its diplomatic deeply troubling from an economic and up and there were more than 100 human channels. Malaysia has significantly lowered business point of view. trafficking-related cases in 2016, compared to relations in the wake of the Kim Jong-nam only seven in 2015. Further progress was made assassination, the subsequent war of words These are, by no means, the only issues. The in terms of protection of victims of trafficking during police investigations and the prevention Obama administration, for example, had and employee exploitation in shelter homes, of Malaysians from leaving North Korea. The quietly but persistently expressed concerns and in outreach and education campaigns. A United States will no doubt be placing a priority about what it perceived as Malaysia’s tilt cabinet decision in favour of a pilot project on this matter and it may be a key point when to China. The North Korea problem has allowing some Rohingya refugees to work President Trump attends the ASEAN Summit. attenuated this somewhat given the US’s need legally is an additional plus. for China to exert its influence. It may be only Set against this is the release earlier this year The third issue concerns the trade surplus that a matter of time, however, before China’s of 12 Malaysian policemen, detained after the Malaysia racks up against the United States leadership in the region reemerges as a central discovery of death camps near the Malaysian- and the risk of being labeled a “trade cheat” or, issue. Thai border in 2015, on the grounds of even worse, an “evil doer”. On his 100th day in There is as well the US Commission on insufficient evidence. Four foreigners, however, office, President Trump signed a Presidential International Religious Freedom Report of were charged and convicted. The 2016 TIP Executive Order Addressing Trade Agreement 2017. Malaysia is not a country of particular Report pointed to a lack of transparency and Violations and Abuses. Among other things, it concern but has a number of issues and an apparent reluctance on the part of the requires the Secretary of Commerce and the restrictions that the US government will government to prosecute officials and officers United States Trade Representative (USTR) pursue “at every level of the US-Malaysia suspected of involvement in human trafficking to conduct, in association with relevant relationship”. Included are the arrests, and smuggling. This will no doubt remain a departments and agencies, comprehensive detention and forced rehabilitation of Muslims pivotal factor in the coming report and the performance reviews on “countries governed deemed to be deviationists, and addressing future of the relationship. by the rules of the World Trade Organization human rights shortcomings presented by the (WTO) with which the United States does not dual civil-sharia justice systems. Second, in the wake of the February have free trade agreements but with which the The critical overarching question is what assassination in Kuala Lumpur of Kim Jong- United States runs significant trade deficits in Malaysia and the United States want to do with nam, the half-brother of the Democratic goods” within six months. their 2014 Comprehensive Partnership signed People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) leader, The Executive Order further requires the under the Obama administration. Bilateral Kim Jong-un, Malaysia’s relations with the review to identify “unfair treatment by trade relationships are more than the sum of their country, previously kept low-key, have been and investment partners that is harming transactions. Malaysia no doubt runs greater highlighted. In particular, the ability of North American workers or domestic manufacturers, risks from US indifference or antipathy but Koreans to gain visa-free entry, run arms farmers, or ranchers; harming our intellectual the United States would lose from having one businesses and work in Malaysia have all come property rights; reducing our rate of less friend in an increasingly important and

under international public scrutiny. innovation; or impairing domestic research complex region.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE

That Malaysia has had longstanding and and development” and which have “failed with The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia friendly relations with a country that the regard to such factors as predicted new jobs Dato’ Steven CM Wong is Deputy Chief Executive, ISIS

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 United States regards as a state sponsor created, favorable effects on the trade balance, Malaysia Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / ASEAN / 5

ASEAN at 50 Misunderstood, maligned & middle-aged The Association is more than an institution; it is a state of mind. Getting to grips with the nature of this simultaneously “strong” but “weak” organisation is key to working out its purpose – and its future

8 focus hat happens when an institution is pushing middle age on its birthday? Expect the usual Wcongratulations for its achievements and for its good health thus far, a retrospective of sorts of its finer moments, and perhaps a stocktake of opportunities seized and lost. However, much also depends on the By institution itself, the track record it is able to show, popular Bunn Nagara expectations of it – and, especially if it is ASEAN, its capacity for reinvention. / ASEAN /

By 8 August 2017, ASEAN will be 50 years old. This venerable half-centurion emerged in the otherwise global backwaters of Southeast Asia in the volatile 1960s. It has since come to preside over a strategic neighbourhood of ten countries with more than 620 million residents and a combined nominal GDP of some US$3 trillion – and growing. Hailed as one of the most successful regional organisations in the world, its 50-year mark suggests that the stakes are as considerable as its aspirations are “Understanding ASEAN is to appreciate what significant. Nonetheless, since this is ASEAN, detractors it is, what it is not, and why it simply had to be” and their brickbats are no less prominent, if still fewer, than admirers – however justified MAPHILINDO was also perceived as a means of idealism, or to proclaim to be any ideal or not the complaints and criticisms may be. by which the Philippines and Indonesia would type of organisation. Rather, it has been Where they register disappointment, ASEAN scupper the proposal by Kuala Lumpur for a and continues to be one region’s pragmatic is seen as falling short of its promise. This may multiracial Malaysia bringing together the response to a set of situations that had arisen be because they had invested much more faith Malayan states, Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore historically. Armed with diplomacy and a in ASEAN’s competence; and this faith can be in a new federation on the eve of its formation. strategy of avoiding or mitigating disputes harnessed to help drive ASEAN further. For Such suspicions, together with Indonesia’s before they arise or escalate, ASEAN is about much of the time, however, disappointment growing policy of Konfrontasi against Malaysia, building the region’s shared positives to eclipse and disdain are accompaniments to a general led to the dissolution of the MAPHILINDO any negatives. Limited territorial disputes such lack of appreciation of ASEAN’s background, idea within a month. as those over outlying islands may remain, but origins and purpose. they are contained and rendered manageable Southeast Asia in the 1950s and early Malaysia was supposed to be established without straying out of control. 1960s bore witness to the tail end of Asia’s on 31 August 1963 to coincide with the sixth Given ASEAN’s background and history, decolonising period. Imperial Japan’s fascist anniversary of the Malayan Federation. its nature and character are not difficult to project of Asian domination and conquest had However, diplomatic activism by the understand. Each member country is free collapsed, and Western strategists projected Philippines and military manoeuvres by and entitled to pursue its own type of social, their concerns over the Korean War and Indonesia against Malaysia delayed economic and political system so long as it does the First and Second Indochina Wars into a arrangements until 16 September. Following not violate ASEAN norms or international fledgling maritime Southeast Asia at a time the success of peace talks between Malaysia law. Non-intervention does not prescribe when Britain was deciding on a military and Indonesia in 1966 and the emergence of a or proscribe any system for any country. All withdrawal “East of Suez” (principally from new generation of Indonesian leaders under ASEAN member nations enjoy equal rights and Malaysia and Singapore, 1964−1968). General Suharto, regional leaders sought a responsibilities regardless of size, strength, An early stab at regionalism was the new, comprehensive organisation to put such wealth or other circumstance. These values Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) conflicts behind them. Thus the Association and principles as formally contained in ASEAN from September 1954. A Cold War instrument of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was documents make for its character, identity, of the West to stop “communism’s advance” in established in 1967. strength of purpose and international appeal – what was perceived to be a series of countries Understanding ASEAN is to appreciate what and help ASEAN endure. in danger of falling to the “domino effect”, it is, what it is not, and why it simply had to Besides the founding document of the only two of its eight members – Thailand and be. Conflict between Indonesia and Malaysia, ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) the Philippines, both US allies – were actually and the dispute between the Philippines and of 1967, the most essential document for from the region. The first indigenous regional Malaysia, had eased sufficiently for ASEAN to ASEAN is the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation organisation was the Association of Southeast be possible. At the same time, these disputes in Southeast Asia (Denpasar, Bali) of 1976. Asia (ASA) from July 1961, which comprised were also enduring enough to make ASEAN Other key ASEAN documents are the Zone of only Thailand, Malaya and the Philippines. necessary. Singapore, too, had separated from Peace, Freedom and Neutrality Declaration The limited membership and deteriorating Malaysia in 1965 with lingering doubts over (ZOPFAN, or Kuala Lumpur Declaration) Philippine-Malaya relations over Sabah with a host of issues, from security provisions, of 1971 and the Southeast Asia Nuclear Malaysia’s proposed formation also meant a to railway property and water supply. A Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ, or Treaty withering away of ASA. new regional organisation with sufficient of Bangkok) of 1995. These are essentially In July 1963, the Philippines convened a members, tasked with mutual reassurance diplomatic instruments powered by ASEAN’s summit to establish MAPHILINDO, another and confidence building, emphasising moral purpose, policy consistency and internal regional combination of three countries: regional peace through non-intervention and cohesion. These earlier ASEAN documents Malaya, the Philippines and Indonesia, equality of status through decision-making by retain their importance and thrust. purportedly to unite the dominant Malay consensus, was essential. In more recent times, additional documents race. Besides its declarations of regional unity, ASEAN was never meant to be an expression have become at least as important. These

10 focus remain. Individual member countries may be identity, while permitting the development aligned to one major power or another as part of commonalities in other areas. By offering of their historical development, but ASEAN what is practicably the best of both conceivable as a whole has never been and will never be worlds, ASEAN possesses the internal aligned in any major power scenario. resilience to prevent brittleness and cracks in ASEAN has always been, and remains, membership. This is sometimes seen as a lack a fraternity of sovereign nations of small of cohesion, such as when there is disagreement to middling status. The largest country, over the precise wording of a post-summit Indonesia, is very much a developing nation statement. Yet despite the challenges, all while the most developed, Singapore, is a city member countries have sought membership include the ASEAN Charter, which gives state. Their common, collective entity still while none have felt obliged to leave or been ASEAN a formal legal identity, adopted in makes for an aggregate developing region – and asked to do so. November 2007 and effective from December a region increasingly buffeted by the interests However, ASEAN cannot afford to be 2008. The Declaration of ASEAN Concord and adventures of several major powers. Given complacent for the present or the future. II (Bali Concord II), endorsed at the Ninth the kinds of diversity and disparateness among It needs to anticipate unfavourable trends ASEAN Summit, calls for the formation of ASEAN members, and the disparities between and pre-empt untoward developments. an ASEAN Community by 2020 comprising them and the world’s major powers, ASEAN The swirl of events in its region is gathering three principal pillars: an ASEAN Economic will remain what it has always been: unique, pace, comprising the renewed or enhanced Community, a Political-Security Community, evolving, and working closely with but separate attentions of the United States, China, Japan, and a Socio-Cultural Community. The deadline from all the major powers that are its partners. Russia, the EU and India. Their respective was moved forward by five years to 2015, only These are the features that have made strategic agendas may not always be to see delays. Since community formation ASEAN “strong” and “weak” at the same time. complementary or serve this region’s interests. is always a process rather than a starting or ASEAN is strong in forming a collective front For the sakes of the region, its constituent end point, identifying the right direction and to face any challenges confronting its region. nations and ASEAN the institution itself, continued progress towards it are key. However, it is not a strength based on the matters in the region must remain on an even Besides the “diplomatic hardware” of hard power of the state, since such strengths keel. To ensure this, ASEAN must be even more treaties, declarations and other documents operate only at the individual state level visible and vocal than before – and particularly defining and identifying ASEAN, there is the within ASEAN. It is the strength of seasoned as a Community. more implicit and less definable “software” of diplomacy and principled propriety, as based One way to do this is to expedite the smooth what is generally termed “the ASEAN way”. In on ASEAN’s judicious treaties and declarations, and seamless development of the ASEAN dealing with one of the world’s most normative international law, and the common regional Community on all three pillars. Diplomatic and intuitive regional institutions, known interest in peace, stability and prosperity. But language aside, this may take longer and prove for conducting business in ways as much it is also a weakness in lacking the power and more challenging than has been acknowledged implied as expressed, understanding ASEAN sanction of enforcement, while its internal so far. ASEAN cannot afford to be in denial or to also requires appreciating this software. As flexibility affords differences of views between rely on platitudes alone. Its greatest challenges former Malaysian Foreign Minister Tun members. Both facets of the ASEAN way are may yet be ahead of it. Achieving an ASEAN Ghazali Shafie famously put it: ASEAN is more direct results of how ASEAN originated and Community – eventually – is not in doubt, but than an organisation; it is a state of mind. developed. the quality and depth of such a Community A crucial stage of ASEAN membership is This is an area where ASEAN differs may be in question. when a new member psychically settles into markedly from the European Union (EU). The proverbial ball is in ASEAN’s court. It and absorbs ASEAN’s culture by attaining a Albeit aiming for Community status, ASEAN has no natural enemies or rivals. All nation working comfort level with others, regardless is still a conglomeration of sovereign nation states and regional entities are comfortable of their history, or even despite their history. states in which individual state prerogatives with ASEAN and its development, since it It is an emotional, psychological and edifying apply. The depth and range of diversities is benign, non-threatening, and can serve experience. between members also far exceed virtually as a catalyst for positive developments in All of the above have been the working anything in the EU. There is unlikely to be a international relations even outside Southeast components of ASEAN for half a century, common foreign policy, defence policy, security Asia. That ASEAN unity and cohesiveness are components that ASEAN officials were never policy, immigration policy, human rights policy vital is a given, but an enlightened appreciation taught at diplomatic school. They are likely or monetary currency. There may not even be a of it would afford room for occasional to remain ASEAN’s working components for common “ASEAN policy” if member countries disagreements amid its formal Agreements. more than another half century. Some new conceive of ASEAN in different ways. However, As ASEAN leaders like to put it, their still documents may emerge, some new details what matters and what holds ASEAN together sovereign nations may “agree to disagree on codified practice may arise, or some new are the centripetal forces inducing member without being disagreeable” in the true ASEAN emphasis or adjustments to norm-setting countries to converge to form the larger way. After all, they already agree the rest of the

may occur. But such cardinal principles collectivity that is ASEAN. time.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE as equality among members, a capacity to The relative looseness in the ranks allows The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia absorb differences, contradictions or shocks individual member nations the space to Bunn Nagara is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and Security

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 (“resilience”), and non-alignment as a bloc will exercise their sovereignty and express their Studies,Conference Room, IS ISIS MalaysiaIS Malaysia / ASEAN / Room for one more?

With ten members, decision-making by consensus is no longer so easy. Could adding more countries to the group compromise its increasingly successful role as a regional actor and influencer?

By Thomas Daniel

his year, the Association of Aside from its current ten members, other Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries commonly associated with either ? T celebrates its golden jubilee. After the having been offered or having attempted to formal declaration of the establishment of the obtain ASEAN observer status or membership ASEAN Community in 2015, the organisation include Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Papua New is moving towards strengthening that Guinea and Timor-Leste. of becoming an ASEAN member, and in 2015 Community through the realisation of its goals Sri Lanka was allegedly invited to join the it appointed a special envoy for ASEAN. It has and aspirations via the Vision 2020 and 2025 group at its founding in 1967 but refused. also indicated that it will examine and align the blueprints. Amidst the progress, however, there Contrary reports, however, claim that Sri necessary policies to be better positioned in its remain lingering questions about possible Lanka was in fact interested in joining ASEAN quest towards a formal application. expansion. after being approached but its membership Timor-Leste, currently ASEAN’s sole ASEAN came into being when the foreign was vehemently opposed by the then Singapore candidate state, is the only country with a ministers of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Foreign Minister S Rajaratnam, who argued viable chance of becoming a full member of Philippines, Singapore and Thailand signed that the South Asian island nation was too ASEAN in the near future. Since independence, what became known as the Bangkok or distant and had too many internal problems the former Indonesian province has always ASEAN Declaration on 8 August 1967. The for the new organisation. Bangladesh has also indicated that it sees ASEAN membership “founding five” were joined in 1984 by a newly pursued observer status, although it does not as a strategic priority. Becoming an observer independent Brunei. As the Cold War came yet have sufficient support to be granted that to ASEAN in 2002, it has worked over the to its end in the 1990s, the decade would see status. years to meet the conditions necessary for full the consolidation of ASEAN as a regional ASEAN currently has one observer state – membership, for which it officially applied in player in trade and security issues as well as Papua New Guinea − and one candidate state – March 2011. its expansion with the inclusion of the CLMV Timor-Leste. The former has long indicated its While there were early objections to Timor- countries − Cambodia (1999), Laos (1997), desire to formally join ASEAN as a full member. Leste’s joining, these have dissipated. Officially, Myanmar (1997) and Vietnam (1995). But despite being granted observer status in all member states now support, in principle, The criteria for membership are clearly 1976, every attempt by Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste’s desire to join ASEAN, and it is spelled out in Article 6 of the ASEAN Charter. A which borders Indonesia’s Papua province on just a matter of time until it does. The final member must: (i) be located in the recognised the island of New Guinea, to join ASEAN has decision as to when this happens ultimately geographical region of Southeast Asia, (ii) be been met with a polite but firm “no”. rests with the leadership of ASEAN and its recognised by all ASEAN member states, (iii) The reasons aren’t exactly opaque – apart member states. agree to be bound and abide by the Charter, and from questions as to whether Papua New When looking at the possibility and viability (iv) have the ability and willingness to carry Guinea is more of an Austro-Melanesian or a of ASEAN’s expansion, a proper understanding out the obligations of membership. As with all Southeast Asian nation, there are also concerns of the environment that led to the creation of major decisions in ASEAN, once an applicant over the general lack of development and, the organisation, how it has evolved to where fulfils these requirements, there must be a full in some cases, governance of the country. it is today, and where ASEAN would like to see consensus by all members to recognise and Nonetheless, Papua New Guinea appears to itself in the future is a significant consideration. admit the applicant. be determined to work towards the possibility An appreciation of the existing internal and

12 focus ? “What ASEAN should do is focus on strengthening itself, increasing cohesion, and reducing internal and external threats to its centrality”

viewed in its proper perspective. There is only On the external front, the growing so big an organisation like ASEAN, with all contestation for strategic influence in the its complexities and sensitivities, can grow. Asia Pacific between the United States and In order for ASEAN to operate effectively it China remains an ongoing challenge for needs to be manageable. Recent developments ASEAN. Concerns remain over whether ? in Europe have caused many to wonder if the ASEAN will be strong enough to maintain EU has grown too fast. Some claim that the its neutrality, centrality and cohesiveness in resulting complex bureaucracy that inevitably the face of increasing pressures. The South follows a large regional grouping is essentially China Sea dispute is another potential point responsible for the host of problems and of discord – with the division between ASEAN external challenges faced by ASEAN is also growing backlash that the EU has faced in the members increasingly apparent in recent important. ASEAN today, especially with the last few years. years. Questions, and accusations, have been advent of its Community and its central role For those that have long observed and raised on the extent of influence that China in several key multilateral forums, is probably worked with ASEAN, the last thing the group has with decision makers in some member beyond anything its founding members needs is a more overarching and complex states and how that impacts ASEAN’s decisions envisioned when they put pen to paper 50 bureaucracy – not least because ASEAN also and statements. How ASEAN manages years ago. In fact, the expansion of ASEAN has its own issues to sort out, both internally these challenges and its ability to continue probably wasn’t high on the list of priorities and externally. successfully playing a leading role in driving in its early days. The region had just seen the There have been calls for increasing the ARF and EAS will have a lasting impact on end of the Konfrontasi and still had its share of reforms within ASEAN, especially on how the the organisation and its relevance as a regional internal conflicts. The Cold War – not so cold organisation operates to better prepare for player and influencer. in certain parts of Southeast Asia – was still emerging global and regional challenges. These Based on the issues raised above, should raging and the fingerprints of big powers, the include strengthening the ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN expand? As things stand, no it United States, Soviet Union and China, were while gradually re-examining ASEAN’s shouldn’t – with the exception of agreeing to everywhere. decision-making by consensus approach. As Timor-Leste’s pending full membership. Given Times have changed, however, and ASEAN ASEAN moves forward with its Community, the ongoing challenges it faces, if anything, did eventually come to include all the ten there is also increased pressure on member any expansion of ASEAN should be to include nations within Southeast Asia. Some have states to agree to and meet key goals outlined members that can bring strategic advantages argued that as ASEAN moves forward with within its three pillars − namely, the ASEAN and muscle, not further complications and its Community, it could be strengthened by Political-Security Community (APSC), the baggage, to the organisation. being more inclusive and open to prospective ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), and the Additionally, an expanded ASEAN could members. The evolution and growth of the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC). seriously complicate its collective decision European Union (EU) is held up as an example, For the many member states that highly making processes. As it is, consensus was especially in its period of growth over the last value their sovereignty and are always ready to much easier when ASEAN was just five two decades. complain about perceived internal interference countries. What ASEAN should do is focus on Additionally, ASEAN, through platforms like by other member states, the acceptance strengthening itself, increasing cohesion, and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN of these pillars is an underappreciated reducing internal and external threats to its Plus forums and the East Asia Summit (EAS), achievement. Policy matters previously the centrality. That way, it can remain amongst the plays a central – some would say indispensable exclusive domain of national governments, longest-lasting and most successful state-led – role in shaping the regional trade and security such as the environment, education, multilateral regional organisations in the

architecture. A bigger ASEAN could make it healthcare, human rights and domestic developing world.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE ever more relevant in the wider Asia-Pacific security, are being discussed and debated in The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia region. Why shouldn’t ASEAN expand? a multilateral setting – something that was Thomas Daniel is an Analyst in Foreign Policy and Security

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 Ultimately, however, ASEAN needs to be borderline impossible for ASEAN in the 1990s. Studies, ISIS Malaysia Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / The Koreas /

Malaysia & North Korea: A PECULIAR RELATIONSHIP UNRAVELS Ties that were originally based on non-alignment and Third World solidarity have been tested to the limit by a murder that shocked the world

the North Korean ambassador for questioning the impartiality of local investigations. The situation crescendoed as North Korea announced that was it was prohibiting By Shahriman Lockman Malaysians in Pyongyang from leaving the country, effectively making them hostages. t was an act as brazen as it was bizarre. substance listed under the Chemical Weapons The murder of Kim Jong-nam brought On 13 February 2017, two women Convention. unprecedented attention on Malaysia-North Iapproached a man standing in the busy Five seconds was all it took to seal the man’s Korea relations. So how did it all come about? departure hall of the low-cost carrier terminal fate. But the murder, whose victim was later Did the visa-free travel arrangement between of Kuala Lumpur International Airport. revealed to be Kim Jong-nam – the estranged the two countries (a privilege that Malaysia has According to police accounts of the incident, half-brother of North Korean leader Kim since rescinded) indicate a relationship that as North Korean agents watched from a Jong-un – would lead to a 45-day diplomatic was deeper than meets the eye? What was in it distance, the two proceeded to smear the man’s crisis between Malaysia and North Korea. for Malaysia and North Korea? face with a lethal dose of VX nerve agent, a During that tense period, Malaysia expelled This peculiar relationship began and

14 focus developed at peculiar moments in history. “For too long, North intelligence agency, the Reconnaissance Diplomatic ties between Malaysia and the General Bureau. Alarmingly, these companies Democratic People’s Republic of Korea – Korean-related claim to have exhibited their equipment in a to use North Korea’s official name – were biennial arms show held in Malaysia, Defence established in 1973. Malaysian foreign policy entities have Services Asia, at least three times since 2006. was then undergoing a shift from being largely exploited Malaysia’s Another key example of North Korea’s pro-Western towards non-alignment. Being sanctions-busting operations is Malaysia non-aligned was as much about identity as it business-friendly Korea Partners (MKP). A conglomerate was strategy: it underscored that the nation engaged in construction, financial services sought a degree of autonomy in the conduct environment in and coal trading in Asia and Africa, MKP was of its foreign relations. Thus, in the same order to break UN incorporated in Malaysia in 1996. Investigative year, Malaysia also formed relations with two reporting by Reuters, suggests that MKP and other members of the communist bloc: East sanctions” its various subsidiaries have illicitly channelled Germany and North Vietnam. funds to the North Korean leadership. North Korea employed similar rationales – And it was not alone in this regard. The same Following these revelations, the Malaysian non-alignment and Third World solidarity – in period witnessed the establishment of relations central bank has announced that it would initiating ties with Malaysia. Furthermore, it between the European Union and North Korea investigate the possible flow of money to North had only recently become possible for North while the United Kingdom opened an embassy Korea. It is also worth noting that the UN Korea to establish ties with countries that in Pyongyang. Underlying Malaysia’s moves Panel of Experts has highlighted how MKP has already had diplomatic relations with South were also the practical calculation that it would operated banks in North Korea, an activity that Korea. Until the late 1960s, the Republic of have an “early-mover advantage” if North foreign-registered companies are prohibited Korea – as South Korea is formally known – Korea were to implement economic reforms from doing under international sanctions, had demanded countries choose between itself that had been successfully pursued in China – since 2013. and the North: they could not simultaneously the ultimate aim of the Sunshine Policy. The diplomatic spat precipitated by the have relations with both. Such hopes would unfortunately come to assassination of Kim Jong-nam came to For much of the next three decades, however, naught. While North Korea has made modest an end on 30 March 2017. Negotiations led Malaysian-North Korean ties lacked substance. economic reforms in the past decade, its North Korea to allow the nine Malaysians in While official visits were made and pro-forma 2009 departure from the Six-Party Talks and Pyongyang – three Malaysian embassy officers congratulatory messages were exchanged on persistence in developing nuclear weapons and their family members – to return to key anniversaries, there was hardly any trade have only invited round after round of Malaysia. Simultaneously, following an autopsy and cooperation to speak of. But that began to international sanctions. Unsurprisingly, trade and the receipt of a letter from Kim Jong-nam’s change at the turn of the new millennium. In between Malaysia and North Korea amounted family asking that his remains be returned April 2000, the two countries inked a bilateral to the paltry sums of RM22 million in 2015 and to North Korea, Malaysia agreed to release agreement on visa-free travel of up to 30 days RM18 million in 2016 – less than 0.002 percent the body to the country’s authorities. After for their nationals (although Malaysians were of Malaysia’s annual international trade of being questioned by the police, several North required to arrange their trips through a North about RM1.5 trillion. Koreans previously sought in connection Korean-approved travel agency). In 2003, But those trade figures hardly reflect with the murder were also allowed to leave North Korea opened an embassy in Kuala how North Korea has benefitted from the Malaysia. Lumpur. Malaysia reciprocated by setting up relationship. Indeed, North Korea has actively In spite of it all, Malaysia has decided against its embassy in Pyongyang in 2004. sought to exploit whatever opportunities it cutting diplomatic ties with North Korea. Again, these steps reflected broader has in various countries – including Malaysia However, a re-evaluation of the relationship developments. The election of Kim Dae-jung – to skilfully circumvent international is unavoidable. And greater scrutiny on as South Korea’s president in 1997 had brought sanctions. Since 2010, the extent of these North Korea activities in Malaysia is all but about a sea-change in that country’s policy violations has been laid bare in the annual inevitable. A good start would be to implement towards North Korea. Propelled to office by a reports of the Panel of Experts Established UN sanctions against North Korea with generation of voters with no experience of the Pursuant to Resolution 1874, which assists renewed vigour and to the letter. For too long, Korean War, Kim Dae-jung jettisoned the hard- the United Nations Security Council in the North Korean-related entities have exploited line stance of his predecessors and sought to implementation of sanctions against North Malaysia’s business-friendly environment engage North Korea through dialogue and aid. Korea. in order to break UN sanctions. That needs Dubbed the “Sunshine Policy”, it underpinned A particularly egregious example involves to stop. A relationship that may have been a decade of South Korean foreign policy, two Malaysia-based companies – International characterised in the past by benign neglect – at including during the administration of Kim’s Golden Services Sdn Bhd and International least on Malaysia’s part – needs now to adhere successor, Roh Moo-hyun. Global Systems Sdn Bhd – that have sought to strictly to international norms, with no repeat

Malaysia’s approach towards North Korea sell North Korean military communications of the peculiar, the brazen or the bizarre.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE during this period was largely in response equipment under the label “Glocom”. The UN The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia to the apparent warming of inter-Korean Panel of Experts believes that these companies Shahriman Lockman is a Senior Analyst in Foreign Policy

and Security Studies, ISIS Malaysia Wednesday, 27 January 2016 relations that attended the Sunshine Policy. have served as fronts for North Korea’s premier Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / The Koreas / The Winner Takes it All – A New Moon Rises? –

South Korea’s presidential election was extraordinary in many ways. The victor now urgently needs to decide how to handle relations with the North and with a newly pugilistic White House

By Jaehyon Lee

16 focus The Winner Takes it All – A New Moon Rises? – / The Koreas /

“Given the political background of Moon Jae-in, he has two predecessors whose direction he could choose to follow: Kim Dae-jung or Roh Moo-hyun. The difference is striking”

lthough the favourite, Moon a more progressive section of Korean Jae-in, won as expected in the end, society and was instrumental in the ASouth Korea’s recent presidential candlelight protests against Park and election was extraordinary, for many in her impeachment. Ahn Cheol-soo reasons. First, due to the unexpected from the People’s Party tried to catch impeachment of former president Park up to Moon, but the gap between them was Geun-hye, the election was held not in impassable, and he eventually came a poor December, but in May, a season when second nearly 20 percent behind Moon’s 42 the full rose blossoms in Korea, giving the percent of the vote. polls the name of the Rose election. Second, As is the case in many other countries, unlike previous presidential elections, foreign policy was not much talked conservative parties and candidates were about in the presidential election. On the extremely weak. The conservative political contrary, inter-Korean relations were very force, which has had the upper hand over flammable during the campaign. There was the progressives in most of the elections, a clear line between the conservative and was hit severely by the scandal that brought progressive positions on how to manage about the impeachment. Moreover, the inter-Korean relations and how to deal with conservative camp was divided into three threats from North Korea. It was this, rather competing parties: those who supported the than conventionally understood definitions impeachment, those who objected to the of left and right, that divided them. motion, and Park’s loyalists. Now that Moon Jae-in has won, as a member of the former Roh Moo-hyun government, he Third, the Korean people had more choices is likely to return to the Sunshine Policy, which than they normally did. Usually, there were means engaging more with the North. The only two or three major candidates in most only problem with this policy change is how to presidential elections – a conservative, a coordinate with the US posture towards North progressive, and (or) one breakout either Korea. The new president is likely to resume from the conservative or progressive party. inter-Korean dialogue, economic cooperation This year, there were at least five candidates including the Kaesong Industrial Complex, from major parties due to the divisions within and family reunions, but the United States both conservative and more liberal political under President Donald Trump will not want parties. The conservative Saenuri Party to be so accommodating, which may lead to was divided into two conservative parties tensions. – the Liberty Korea Party (with Hong Joon- Nevertheless, the partnership with pyo as candidate) and the Bareun Party (Yoo the United States, which has been the Seung-min). The name Saenuri was claimed lynchpin of the country’s security policy, by another minor candidate. A section will be largely preserved. There have been to accept THAAD or the United States to of the progressive Democratic Party (led by difficult moments in the alliance, especially cancel the deployment, while at the same Moon Jae-in) defected and formed a new under more progressive governments, but time having to juggle relations with China. centrist People’s Party (led by Ahn Cheol-soo). they were not because of fundamental It is more likely that the new president will On top of this, there was the Justice Party disagreements. The working level try to persuade the people to continue with (Sim Sang-jung), which is on the far left cooperation between South Korea and the deployment for security reasons. in the Korean political spectrum. United States has always been healthy. But the new government must also quickly For some time there was a general The most difficult issue between the new fix relations with China, which were strained consensus that Moon Jae-in from the government and the United States will over the installation of THAAD. More Democratic Party was far ahead of the be THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude fundamentally, bilateral relations have other candidates. The party has long Area Defense. The new government has to deteriorated due to disagreements on how to been the biggest vehicle of support for persuade either the South Korean people handle North Korea.

18 focus In terms of the region, the new government Sooner rather than later the new government cooperation and Korea’s partnership with has to send a strong signal to Japan not to will have to formulate its policy towards ASEAN. Roh, on the other hand, was more keep revisiting contentious issues, such as these important neighbours. Given the focused on South Korea being the hub the comfort women, the disputed Dokdo political background of Moon Jae-in, he country of Northeast Asia. It remains to be islets, and revisionist history textbooks. At has two predecessors whose direction he seen which scenario the new government the same time they must address the Korean could choose to follow: Kim Dae-jung or will take, but given the urgency of the North people’s concerns over the previous Roh Moo-hyun. The difference is striking. Korean issue and dynamics in Northeast government’s mishandling of these issues. Kim was instrumental in the early days of Asia, Moon is more likely to be another Roh,

Unfortunately, foreign policy East Asian regional cooperation. He was rather than a Kim.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE concerning Southeast Asia, ASEAN or also deeply interested in promoting a robust The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia regional multilateral cooperation hardly partnership with Southeast Asian countries. Jaehyon Lee is Director of the Centre for ASEAN and

Oceania Studies at TheWednesday, Asan 27 January 2016 Institute for Policy Studies figured in the candidates’ election promises. He had his own vision of East Asian regional Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / UN /

MALAYSIA IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL – How did we do? –

By Harris Zainul and Tengku Nur Qistina

alaysia concluded its fourth term technological advancements, reaffirm the co-sponsored the US draft addressing the at the United Nations Security illegality of Israeli settlements in Palestinian lingering issues of sexual exploitation MCouncil on 31st December 2016. territory, and bring to justice those and abuse by peacekeeping troops. The Its agenda was to strengthen peacekeeping responsible for the downing of Malaysia resolution allows the UN Secretary-General operations, promote accountability for Airlines flight MH17. to protect potential victims by replacing perpetrators of child abductions, update Firstly, efforts on peacekeeping operations troops or the police, if the perpetrator is the non-proliferation agenda in light of resulted in Resolution 2272. Malaysia found to have come from the ranks of forces

20 focus “Deemed to be Malaysia’s ‘crowning glory at draft resolution, Malaysia also organised an Arria-formula meeting on the matter. the United Nations’ by the then Malaysian Using this formula – which allows informal, Permanent Representative to the United confidential discussions within a flexible procedural framework − meant that Israeli Nations, Ambassador Dato’ Ramlan Ibrahim, non-governmental organisations could be it is noteworthy that Resolution 2334 was the consulted on the issue of the settlements, which could not have happened otherwise. first Security Council resolution on the Middle While credit is due to Malaysia for its East peace process in eight years, and the role, it is important to note the external factors that contributed to the successful first in 36 years on Israeli settlements” adoption of Resolution 2334, particularly the US abstention from voting. In the from the same country as them. However, of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), then US Ambassador Samantha Power’s this is only if and when appropriate steps are Malaysia co-sponsored Resolution 2325 statement following the voting, she described not taken by the perpetrator’s country. (2016) which requests Member States be her government’s decision to abstain as As the resolution states: “the Secretary- highly aware of and vigilant about, where being due to the dramatically changing General is now empowered to replace all relevant, the continually evolving nature of circumstances since 2011 – when the United units of the troops ... if appropriate steps the risks of proliferation of WMDs by non- States vetoed a draft resolution exclusively were not taken by the contributing country state actors. This builds on the preventive on Israeli settlements. to investigate the allegation ....” control mechanisms for WMDs set forth by Moreover, as President Barack Obama’s Moreover, building on Malaysia’s Resolution 1540 (2004). second term was drawing to a conclusion, already longstanding involvement and Resolution 2325 was a result of the high- there was growing frustration in the US accomplishments with peacekeeping level open debate organised by Malaysia government over the lack of progress on operations, Malaysia announced during its during its August 2016 presidency, which the Israeli-Palestinian issue. In fact, the term in the Council that it will be henceforth reviewed the nexus between advances in increasing number of Israeli settlements volunteering an infantry battalion battle technology and how they might potentially in the occupied territories, with plans for group and an engineering unit as a standby facilitate the acquirement of WMDs by non- expansion, was actively threatening the force. state actors. viability of a two-state solution. Secondly, during its presidency of the Fifthly, the reality of great power Security Council in June 2015, Malaysia, Fourthly, on the contentious issue of Israeli considerations and the limit of a non- which was also Chair of the Security Council settlements on Palestinian territory, permanent membership were not lost on Working Group on Children and Armed Malaysia had, along with Venezuela, Senegal, Malaysia. This was most evident during the Conflict, organised a high-level open debate and New Zealand, co-sponsored a draft tabling of draft resolution S/2015/562 (2015), that led to additional triggers being listed on resolution that was ultimately adopted by the which sought to establish an international top of pre-existing ones, such as the killing Security Council as Resolution 2334 (2016). tribunal to prosecute those responsible for and maiming of children, recruitment and Resolution 2334 reaffirms that the Israeli the July 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines use of children as soldiers, sexual violence settlements in Palestinian territory occupied flight MH17 over Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. against children, attacks against schools or since 1967, including East Jerusalem, have Despite obtaining 11 votes in favour, the hospitals, and the denial of humanitarian no legal validity and constitute a flagrant negative vote cast by the Russian Federation access for children. violation under international law. The vetoed the draft resolution. However, it This significant debate culminated in the resolution goes on to reiterate the Security would not be fair for its non-adoption to be unanimous adoption of Resolution 2225 Council’s demand that Israel immediately taken as a setback for Malaysia, or for the (2016), which added “child abductions” as a and completely cease all of its settlement other sponsors. Nonetheless, it is evidence of trigger for listing in the Secretary-General’s activities and that it should fully respect all the reality of the great powers’ sway on the Annual Report on Children and Armed of its legal obligations in this regard. Council and the upper limits of what a non- Conflict. A listing on this report leads to Deemed to be Malaysia’s “crowning glory permanent member is capable of. international pressure and the shaming of at the United Nations” by the then Malaysian Given these constraints, it is generally felt the state or non-state perpetrator, with the Permanent Representative to the United that Malaysia’s performance during its stint aim that it should cease targeting these most Nations, Ambassador Dato’ Ramlan Ibrahim, in the Security Council reflected creditably vulnerable members of society. it is noteworthy that Resolution 2334 was on a country of its size and stature. If not This was in response to 2014 being among the first Security Council resolution on the all its efforts met with success, there were

the worst years for children’s safety, with 58 Middle East peace process in eight years, and achievements to be noted as well.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE groups being responsible for violence against the first in 36 years on Israeli settlements. The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia children in 23 conflict situations. Besides bringing the UN regional Harris Zainul is a Researcher in Economics and Tengku Nur

Qistina is a Researcher in Social Policy, ISIS Wednesday,Malaysia 27 January 2016 Thirdly, on the issue of non-proliferation groupings together to co-sponsor the Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / Middle East /

Malaysia’s Own Pivot in West Asia Relations with Saudi Arabia have become significantly closer in the last few years. What does this mean for the historically friendly ties with Iran – and could there be repercussions? last October, and a Tehran-bound Malaysian delegation pursuing a free trade agreement (FTA) this February. Recent Malaysia-Saudi military cooperation By Amalina Anuar reflects Putrajaya’s shifting priorities. Previously, the Mahathir administration was adamant in distancing itself from the ith fewer sanctions shackling its relations with another regional powerhouse: competition for influence in West Asia. At one rise, Iran’s re-entry into the global Saudi Arabia. point, Malaysia refused to send any troops to Weconomy has huge potential. Since 2016, Malaysia has initiated six Saudi Arabia unless Mecca and Medina were Historically warm relations between Malaysia out of seven bilateral visits and calls – four besieged. Now, Malaysia has a larger military and Iran opened the door to various bilateral being made by Defence Minister Datuk Seri footprint in the region. opportunities. Nevertheless, despite resurgent Hishammuddin Hussein − with the sole Saudi Datuk Seri Hishammuddin said that engagements aiming to restore diplomatic initiative being King Salman’s 2017 Malaysian Malaysia’s involvement in Northern Thunder, ties to pre-sanctions levels, Malaysia’s West tour. West Asia’s largest military exercise that took Asian courtship appears no longer to be In contrast, two official Iranian-Malaysian place in Saudi Arabia in February and March characterised by the balance that has long visits have occurred since 2016: President 2016, was strictly for learning purposes. He informed its foreign policy due to intensifying Rouhani’s two-day visit to Kuala Lumpur also said that there would not be any Malaysian

22 focus military commitment to the Islamic Military “It is difficult to envision Putrajaya forging Alliance to Fight Terrorism, a coalition some perceive as a Saudi front to dethrone Yemen’s military bonds with Tehran in lieu of Riyadh. Houthi-led government. Yet the state-controlled Saudi Press Agency Military matters in West Asia are inexorably still named Malaysia as a coalition member. tied to religious expansionism, and Malaysia In addition, a recent UN report claimed that Malaysian officers had been working at the and Iran do not support the same sect” coalition’s headquarters in Riyadh. Under the Mahathir and Badawi administrations, Malaysia stood fast beside Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Economically, Indonesia (24.21) trailed far behind. Iran in the face of international opprobrium: official development assistance (ODA) flows, Since 2002, Malaysia and Iran have Putrajaya criticised the US Iran-Libya reciprocal foreign direct investment (FDI), as cooperated through the Islamic Financial Sanctions Act of 1996, and ten years later well as oil and gas cooperation have fortified Services Board (IFSB) headquartered in threatened to end FTA negotiations with the ties, capped by Saudi’s state-owned Aramco Kuala Lumpur. More than sheer pragmatic United States over the latter’s insistence that agreeing to invest $7 billion in Petronas’s instrumentalism, this collaboration also Malaysia cancel a US$16 billion oil deal with ambitious refinery project in Johor during buttresses Malaysia’s image as a moderate Tehran. King Salman’s visit in February. Muslim-majority nation. It is difficult to envision Putrajaya forging If institutions reflect host countries, the fact In the social sphere, while Malaysia has military bonds with Tehran in lieu of Riyadh. that Iran has been a core member since the banned Shia proselytisation, Putrajaya Military matters in West Asia are inexorably IFSB’s inauguration and is now 2017 Chair in a continues to open its doors to Iranian tied to religious expansionism, and Malaysia rotational leadership system − a stark contrast immigrants. Moreover, Malaysia has supported and Iran do not support the same sect. to the Bretton Woods institutions’ exclusively Iran’s nuclear programme, speaking up Strengthening military cooperation with Shia European and American chairs − is a fine for Tehran’s right to use nuclear energy for Iran, long deemed a mortal enemy by the example of religious tolerance in the veins of peaceful means. Kingdom, could alienate Malaysia’s majority Islam Hadhari and wasatiyyah. Though Malaysia later recalled its Sunni population − especially when the trend The IFSB’s institutional reports also ambassador for not voting according to is towards Arabisation, not Persianisation, to acknowledge Iran as fully Sharia-compliant, procedure, it was one of only three countries to showcase fervent piety. despite raging external debate by Islamic oppose a November 2009 International Atomic This shift may not be surprising, even if the scholars on both sides of the Sunni-Shia divide. Energy Agency resolution rebuking Iran, and way it has been manifested – such as the Saudi Financial cooperation will not erase has previously offered to help Iran normalise royal family’s $681 million donation to Prime sectarian differences or historical rivalry. But relations with the international community. Minister Dato’ Sri Najib Razak − has been at this partnership sets the stage for coopetition: Yet these ties are already being strained by times. Iran may draw investment away as the largest the Saudi-Malaysia joint statement released in Where, then, does this leave Malaysia-Iran market, but its inclusion will help grow the the aftermath of King Salman’s visit, in which ties? Malaysia’s reinvigorated association with international IBF pie. Along with Malaysia’s both countries “expressed serious concerns Iran − through FTAs, joint oil assessments collaboration with other Muslim and non- over the Iranian interference in the internal and establishing regional palm oil offices − is Muslim countries like Kuwait and Japan, a affairs of countries in the region” − a move that insufficient to counter its perceived shift to Malaysian-Iranian partnership could help Tehran immediately condemned. Without Saudi Arabia. Nor does it rectify Malaysia’s reach the 682 million unbanked Muslims efforts to rebalance its approach to West Asia, image as a balancing state regionally. globally. Putrajaya may witness further instability in It does, however, secure national economic As an added bonus, heightened economic what Wisma Putra deems to be “close bilateral interests and may prove important in interdependence may even further reduce the ties”. advancing a core project for Malaysia: Islamic possibility of conflict in West Asia. Continuous Malaysia’s unrivalled rapport with Saudi banking and finance (IBF). Iran’s integration socialisation and repeated interactions in a Arabia is, however, less of a pivot than a gradual into the global economy could dramatically multilateral forum like the IFSB can build shift − and even then, perhaps not a surprising boost the industry’s viability. Islamic assets confidence and trust. It also bolsters the one. Socio-religious ties have long made the comprising 37 percent of the global $1.9 trillion moderate Islam movement Malaysia wishes relationship with Saudi Arabia a priority IBF market make Iran a significant industry to grow. for Malaysia. As the Kingdom is the beating player alongside heavyweights like Malaysia, Malaysia’s changing approach to West Asia heart and bastion of Sunni Islam, Malaysia’s the global IBF and sukuk leader, and Saudi may have diminished its image as a balancing predominant denomination, the Government’s Arabia, another major IBF market. state, but it does not translate into a foreign relations with the Custodian of the Two In the 2016 Islamic Finance Country Index policy metamorphosis. For as far as can be told, Holy Mosques are symbolically sacrosanct, calculating domestic IBF environments and Malaysia’s relations in West Asia represent an

politically expedient, and linked to ease of international IBF leadership, Malaysia ranked exception rather than a new rule.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE pilgrimage for millions. first (with 77.77 points), Iran second (77.39), The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia Both countries also share a long history and Saudi Arabia third (66.98). The United Amalina Anuar is an Intern at ISIS Malaysia Wednesday, 27 January 2016 of collaboration in the Organisation of Arab Emirates (36.68), Kuwait (35.51) and Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia / Europe /

scuppering the whole idea. If even one of the two ultimate core nations of the EU – the other being Germany – felt integration was going too far, too fast, still more the doubts in less EU-enthusiastic states. The problem is that the people at the top of the EU have always felt unconstrained by the popular will and democratic votes in pursuit of their dream of “ever closer union”. And these voices have become ever-more important in running the Union. The rules governing the various EU institutions are too complex to go into here, but the key distinction is that while the Council of Ministers represents the democratically elected governments of the member states, greater power has shifted to the European Commission, which is made up of nominees for whom no one has voted. To illustrate the way in which the Commission chooses to use this power, imagine that Malaysia decided to leave ASEAN, and the response was the following: The Secretary-General of ASEAN allows The EU at 60 his staff to leak what happened at a private dinner with Malaysia’s prime minister. Reports then reveal that the Sec-Gen called A most unhappy birthday the PM “deluded” and “living in another galaxy”, and told him that Malaysia’s exit “cannot be a success”. The former finance minister of another ASEAN country then warns that “Malaysia will have to be made By SHOLTO BYRNES an example of. Any recalcitrant government that steps outside the modus vivendi will be crushed.” hile ASEAN prepares for its 50th is an example for ASEAN and other regional In the EU context, this was the result of anniversary this September, groups of what not to do, rather than one to EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s evening W another regional organisation follow. with British Prime Minister Theresa May, marked an even more significant milestone This should have been obvious long ago. with the extra commentary provided by earlier this year. If the celebrations for the If the catastrophe of the Eurozone, which Greece’s Yanis Varoufakis. European Union’s 60th were somewhat muted, bound poorer countries, notably Greece, to Would Malaysia, or any other ASEAN however, it was with good reason. Last year’s rules better suited to wealthier fellow states, country, want to be part of an organisation Brexit vote was the first time a member state particularly Germany, was not enough: the that had so little respect for national had ever signalled its intention to leave the fact that almost every time a country voted sovereignty; one in which a high official with Union, while support appeared to be rising “no” in a referendum concerning an EU no democratic mandate from the voters across the continent for populists who railed issue, it was then asked to try again, with dared speak with such presumption to the against Brussels for its failure to contain the implicit message that “yes” was the only leader of a member state? The answer is immigration and stand up for “indigenous” – ie acceptable answer, ought to have pointed to obvious. white and Christian – values. the real flaw in the Union. ASEAN has been criticised for being the Some argue that the victory of the EU- The democratic deficit has been there slow tortoise, lagging in comparison to phile Emmanuel Macron in the French from the start, when its founding treaty (of the EU’s energetic hare. But we know who presidential election shows that the tide Rome, in 1957) committed its signatories won that race. And while the EU may have of popular opinion has turned back to the to an “ever closer union” that the peoples reached the greater age, there is no doubting Union. But after the Eurosceptic National of Europe have never shown much, if any, which birthday celebration will have been

Front won its highest ever vote – 35 percent sign of actually wanting. Should any doubt the happier – and deservedly so.

ISIS ROUNDTABLE

– there is little for Brussels boosters to crow that, it is worth noting that it was the people The Future of Think Tanks and Nation Building in Malaysia about. In fact, given the multiple crises facing of France who voted “no” to the proposed Sholto Byrnes is a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and

Wednesday, 27 January 2016 the EU, it should be clearer than ever that it European Constitution in 2005, thereby Security Studies, ISIS Malaysia Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia

24 focus / Selected Publications /

Australia’s Multicultural Identity From Security Architecture to Security Order: Peace & Security Dialogue in the Asian Century Prospects for Cooperative Security 2.0 – More Urgent Than Ever Waleed Aly Kuala Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2014. Paul Evans The APR Series E-Monograph. Kuala ISIS Focus 2/2016, No. 2 (Special Report). Kuala http://bit.ly/27cEpHj Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2016. Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2016. http://bit.ly/1TRpjgf http://bit.ly/22z3Dfc

Nama, Group-Binding and Moral Balance: ISIS Malaysia Annual Report 2015 China on the Defensive? Themes and Origins of Malaysian Kuala Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2016. ISIS Focus 3/2016, No. 3. Kuala Lumpur: Foreign Policy http://bit.ly/2dQFsKA2 ISIS Malaysia, 2016. Anthony Milner Kuala Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2014. http://bit.ly/2kTtySH http://bit.ly/23Gt7q5

Will ASEAN Continue to be the Cornerstone of The Future of Think Tanks in Malaysia: Can the Rohingya Be Saved? Malaysian Foreign Policy: The “Community- Innovate – or Die ISIS Focus 1/2017, No. 4. Kuala Lumpur: building” Priority ISIS Focus 2/2016, No. 1. Kuala Lumpur: ISIS ISIS Malaysia, 2017. Anthony Milner Kuala Lumpur: ISIS Malaysia, 2016. Malaysia, 2016. http://bit.ly/2n8ZjVW http://bit.ly/2ddUe9B http://bit.ly/1XjlyHF