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America's International Role Under Donald Trump America’s International Role Under Donald Trump America’s Under International Role Chatham House Report Edited by Xenia Wickett America’s International Role Under Donald Trump Edited by Xenia Wickett Xenia by Edited Chatham House Chatham House Report Edited by Xenia Wickett US and the Americas Programme | January 2017 America’s International Role Under Donald Trump Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is an independent policy institute based in London. Our mission is to help build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world. The Royal Institute of International Affairs A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Chatham House Cover image copyright © DON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE Typeset by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk T: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5700 Printed and bound in Great Britain by Latimer Trend F: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org The material selected for the printing of this report is manufactured from 100% genuine de-inked post-consumer waste by an ISO 14001 certified mill and is Charity Registration No. 208223 Process Chlorine Free. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2017 Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries Cover image: Donald Trump arrives to speak at a USA Thank You to the publishers. Tour 2016 event at the Giant Center on 15 December 2016 in Hershey, Pennsylvania. ISBN 978 1 78413 191 3 ii | Chatham House Contents About the Authors iv Acknowledgments vi Preface vii Executive Summary viii 1 Introduction 1 2 Defence 8 3 Economy 13 4 Trade 17 5 Energy and Climate Change 22 6 China 27 7 Russia 32 8 Middle East and North Africa 37 9 Europe 42 10 Afghanistan 46 11 Latin America 50 12 Conclusion 56 Chatham House | iii About the Authors Xenia Wickett is the head of the US and the Americas Dr Christopher Smart is the Whitehead Senior Fellow Programme at Chatham House and the dean of the Queen at Chatham House and a senior fellow at the Harvard Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Kennedy School’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business Affairs. She also serves as a commissioner of the Marshall and Government. He spent six years in the Obama Aid Commemoration Commission. Prior to joining administration as a senior policymaker for international Chatham House, Xenia was the executive director of the economic affairs. As special assistant to the president at PeaceNexus Foundation, director of the project on India the National Economic Council and the National Security and the Subcontinent and executive director for research Council, he was principal adviser on trade, investment and at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. Xenia a wide range of global economic issues. From 2009 to 2013, served with the US government as director for South he was deputy assistant secretary of the Treasury, where Asia on the National Security Council; and at the State he led the response to the European financial crisis and Department as special adviser at the Homeland Security designed US engagement on financial policy across Europe, Group and as an officer in the Bureau of Nonproliferation. Russia and Central Asia. Before entering government, he Shortly after 11 September 2001, she was detailed was the director of international investments at Pioneer to the Office of the Vice President to help launch Investments, where he managed top-performing emerging the Office of Homeland Security Affairs. market and international portfolios. Earlier in his career, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he worked Julianne (Julie) Smith is an associate fellow of the US in Moscow, advising Russian government agencies on and the Americas Programme at Chatham House. She is economic policy and financial market reform. also the director of the Strategy and Statecraft Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), and a senior Miriam Sapiro is a partner at Finsbury and the head of its vice-president at Beacon Global Strategies in Washington. office in Washington, DC, where she focuses on public affairs Prior to joining Beacon and CNAS, she served as the deputy and strategic communications with respect to cross-border national security adviser to the US vice-president from transactions, crisis management, litigation and regulatory April 2012 to June 2013. Before her posting at the White issues. Miriam has more than 25 years’ experience in House, she served as the principal director for European government and the private sector. She served in the and NATO policy in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Obama administration for four years as deputy US Trade She has also worked at several think-tanks, including the Representative and was also acting US Trade Representative, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the leading trade and investment negotiations and enforcement. German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), and the She served previously at the State Department and the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Germany, focusing on National Security Council during the administrations of transatlantic relations and US national security. presidents Reagan, Bush and Clinton. While serving in the Office of the US Trade Representative, she was a senior Rachel Rizzo is the research associate for the Strategy and member of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the Statecraft Program at CNAS. Her work focuses on US foreign United States (CFIUS) and on the board of directors of the policy and defence strategy, geopolitics, NATO and Europe. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC). In 2016, Before joining CNAS, she worked as a programme assistant President Obama appointed her to the Panel of Conciliators on the Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Brent of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Scowcroft Center on International Security. She also has work Disputes at the World Bank. experience with the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, the State Department’s Bureau of Political-Military Sarah O. Ladislaw is the director and a senior fellow Affairs, the National Defense University and the US Mission of the Energy and National Security Program at CSIS, to NATO. Prior to moving to Washington, she spent almost where she leads its work in energy policy, market and two years working at Goldman Sachs. technology analysis. She is an expert on US energy policy, global oil and natural gas markets, and climate change. She Adam Twardowski was, at the time of writing, a Joseph has authored numerous publications on the geopolitics of S. Nye, Jr. research intern for the Strategy and Statecraft energy, energy security, climate change and low-carbon Program at CNAS. Before joining CNAS, he interned at pathways, and on US energy policy, regulation and market the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian dynamics. Sarah formerly worked in the Office of the Affairs, where he worked in the Office of Central European Americas in the Department of Energy’s Office of Policy Affairs. He previously interned at the Atlantic Council’s and International Affairs. She also spent a short period Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the working for Statoil as senior director for international affairs Hudson Institute’s Center for Political-Military Analysis. in the company’s Washington office. She is a member of the He is pursuing an MA in security studies at Georgetown National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Strategic Analysis University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. Technical Review Panel and the Strategic Advisory Council iv | Chatham House America’s International Role Under Donald Trump About the Authors for Georgia Tech’s Strategic Energy Initiative, and was focuses on German and European foreign policy. He is the a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. author of two books: Utopia or Auschwitz. Germany’s 1968 Generation and the Holocaust (C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd, Dr Jacob Parakilas is the assistant head of the US and the 2009); and The Paradox of German Power (C Hurst & Co Americas Programme at Chatham House. He has previously Publishers Ltd, 2014). worked as head of weapons at Action on Armed Violence, a London-based NGO working on armed violence reduction Seth G. Jones is the director of the International Security worldwide. His academic research has covered nuclear and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, as weapons, violent non-state actors in the Middle East, and well as an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University’s drug violence and the arms trade in Mexico. He has also School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He worked at the World Security Institute, the Arms Control served as the representative for the commander, US Special Association and the US Department of Homeland Security. Operations Command, to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations. Before that, he served as a plans Flynt Leverett is a professor of international affairs at officer and adviser to the commanding general, US Special Penn State, a visiting scholar at Peking University and a Operations Forces, in Afghanistan (Combined Forces senior fellow at Renmin University’s Chongyang Institute Special Operations Component Command–Afghanistan). for Financial Studies. He served in the US government as He specializes in analysis of counter-insurgency and the senior director for Middle East affairs at the National counterterrorism, with a focus on Al-Qaeda and Islamic Security Council, on the secretary of state’s policy planning State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
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