diversity Article Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps Yann Fragnière 1, Loïc Pittet 1, Benoît Clément 1,Sébastien Bétrisey 1, Emanuel Gerber 2, Michał Ronikier 3 , Christian Parisod 4 and Gregor Kozlowski 1,2,5,* 1 Department of Biology and Botanic Garden, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 10, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland;
[email protected] (Y.F.);
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[email protected] (S.B.) 2 Natural History Museum Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 6, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland;
[email protected] 3 W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Lubicz 46, PL-31-512 Krakow, Poland;
[email protected] 4 Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland;
[email protected] 5 Plant Systematics and Evolutionary Biology, Shanghai Chenshan Plant Science Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201602, China * Correspondence:
[email protected] Received: 31 July 2020; Accepted: 1 September 2020; Published: 7 September 2020 Abstract: Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes).