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Title Is Turkey Realigning? a Three Dimensional Investigation of Turkish-Iranian Security Rapprochement

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Title Is Turkey Realigning? a Three Dimensional Investigation of Turkish-Iranian Security Rapprochement TITLE IS TURKEY REALIGNING? A THREE DIMENSIONAL INVESTIGATION OF TURKISH-IRANIAN SECURITY RAPPROCHEMENT By Behsat Ekici Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2010 i UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This dissertation was presented By Behsat Ekici It was defended on September 6, 2010 and approved by Jonathan Harris, Professor Phil Williams, Professor William W. Keller, Professor Dissertation Chair Michael Brenner, Professor Dissertation Co-Chair i ABSTRACT This study investigates the underlying reasons for Turkish-Iranian security rapprochement during the Erdogan Administration, and attempts to discover whether the ongoing rapprochement indicates Turkey’s realignment in the international system. It employs a rigorous qualitative analysis to explore the perceptions of the key decision makers throughout the intergovernmental partnership process with Iran on three major security policies: counterterrorism, nuclear proliferation and energy security. It counterposes the threat perceptions and major arguments of the pro-status quo and revisionist elites. The data has been collected through extensive elite/expert interviews and content analysis of the Turkish and international media. Findings of this research indicate that the Turkish and Iranian governments cooperate in counterterrorism policy because both are mainly concerned with the spillover effect of micronationalist independence movements in the post Iraq War security landscape. The Erdogan Administration supports the Iranian nuclear initiative mainly because the key political actors believe that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons and Iranian nuclear program poses no significant threat to Turkey’s national security. In addition the Erdogan Administration forged an energy partnership with Iran not only to meet increasing domestic energy demands but also to promote Turkey’s strategic interests through development of trans-regional pipeline networks. The investigations revealed that Turkey’s growing security partnership with Iran does not indicate realignment from the West to the Muslim world. Turkey’s rapprochement with Iran is driven by practical and rational calculations rather than Islamic identity or aspirations. Even though many key actors in the Justice and Development Party government comes from religious ii social networks, their statements indicate that the Erdogan Administration does not seek to align itself with the Muslim World at the expense of the existing pro-Western orientation. Instead, Turkey’s rapprochement with Iran is an integral part of the Strategic Depth doctrine of Foreign Minister Davutoglu to expand Turkey’s interrelations with the East in line with national interests. In so doing, the Erdogan Administration not only addresses the practical security interests but it also attempts to regain the strategic superiority in the Near East. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation is never a unilateral product of the author, but it received intellectual, emotional and financial support of many people. First and foremost my deepest appreciation goes to my dissertation advisers Prof. William W. Keller, Prof. Michael Brenner, Prof. Jonathan Harris and Prof. Phil Williams, because of their continuous support, comments and feedbacks within a tight schedule. I owe particular gratitude to Prof. William Keller who relentlessly dedicated his time for detailed editing of my writings. I am most grateful for his priceless support throughout my doctoral education. I would also like to express my great appreciation to Prof. Michael Brenner for his graciousness, consideration and intellectual guidance not only through the dissertation but also through my graduate education. His ideas and comments have been quite instrumental in shaping my research project. I would like to express my deep appreciation to Prof. Jonathan Harris, whose most valuable comments and recommendations helped me through grounding theoretical framework, writing of my analysis chapters and rectifying language errors. My sincere gratitude goes to Prof. Phil Williams for his editing, comments and mentorship since my first day in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. I also thank Dean John Keeler for the High Merit Fellowship Award that helped financing my last year in the doctoral education. Second, I would like to express my great appreciation to all my interviewees who made themselves generously available for the interviews. This dissertation would not be viable without their penetrating insights and intellectual feedback on a highly sophisticated array of factors that affected the decision making process of the Turkish government. Third, my family deserves a special mention for the support they provided during my entire life. My parent’s unconditional love and moral support has always accompanied me even when I stayed across the iv ocean. I also really appreciate my wife who retarded her career a few years to be with me during my time in the United States. Fourth, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to Turkish tax payers whose generous scholarship allowed me to pursue a graduate education in a highly respected school. I will be truly dedicated to their service during the rest of my life. Finally, I also would like to express my gratitude to my institutional directors, who gave the permission and support for my graduate education. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………………………………………………...……iv TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………………….x ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. THESIS STATEMENT ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1. The shift in Turkish foreign policy and rapprochement with Iran ............................................. 4 1.1.2 Literature gaps and the significance of this study ....................................................................... 7 1.2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS.................................................................................................................. 12 1.3. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................. 12 1.3.1. Sources of data ......................................................................................................................... 15 1.3.2. Data Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 17 1.3.3. Limitations and field method challenges .................................................................................. 19 1.4. CHAPTER OUTLINE ......................................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK .............................. 25 2.1. DEFINITION, DIMENSIONS AND EARLY MODELS OF FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE .......... 27 2.2. THREE SYSTEMATIC APPROACHES TO FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE .................................. 35 2.2.1. SECURITY APPROACH ........................................................................................................ 35 2.2.2. DOMESTIC POLITICS APPROACH ..................................................................................... 40 2.2.3. IDENTITY BASED AND ASPIRATIONAL APPROACHES ............................................... 44 2.3. OPERATIONALIZATION OF THE SECURITY APPROACH TO THE CHANGE IN TURKISH FOREING POLICY .................................................................................................................................... 49 2.3.1. Operationalization of the security approach ............................................................................. 53 CHAPTER 3: INTERGOVERNMENTAL PARTNERSHIP ON COUNTERTERRORISM .......... 58 3.1. Resurgence of the PKK terrorism after the Iraq War ........................................................................... 61 vi 3.2. Unsatisfactory cooperation of the U.S. forces in Iraq .......................................................................... 65 3.3. Various crises between Washington and Ankara ................................................................................. 70 3.3.1. March resolution (Mart Tezkeresi) ........................................................................................... 70 3.3.2. Bag incident (arrest of a Turkish Special Forces squad by American troops) ......................... 72 3.3.3. Redrawing the map of the Middle East .................................................................................... 73 3.3.4. Revealing of the U.S.-PJAK connection .................................................................................. 75 3.4. Collapse of the bilateral cooperation mechanism ...............................................................................
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