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Regimes, Institutions and Foreign Policy Change David Baker Huxsoll Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College

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Regimes, Institutions and Foreign Policy Change David Baker Huxsoll Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 2003 Regimes, institutions and foreign policy change David Baker Huxsoll Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Huxsoll, David Baker, "Regimes, institutions and foreign policy change" (2003). LSU Doctoral Dissertations. 2377. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations/2377 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please [email protected]. REGIMES, INSTITUTIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Political Science by David B. Huxsoll B.S., West Virginia University, 1991 M.A., West Virginia University, 1993 May 2003 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to acknowledge the assistance and support of my entire dissertation committee; Dr. Erik Gartzke, for his valued assistance in the use of his data; and the nd leadership of the 22 Air Refueling Wing, McConnell Air Force Base, Kansas, for permitting the extended leave necessary to complete this work. This dissertation is dedicated to my entire family, especially my wife, Julie, and children, Caroline and Samuel, in whose future this work is invested. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS …………………..………………………..……………...ii ABSTRACT ……………………………………………….………………..……….vi CHAPTER 1. INRODUCTION ………………………..……………………………..1 CHAPTER 2. COMPARATIVE FOREIGN POLICY AND THE STUDY OF FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE ………………...………..4 The Development of Comparative Foreign Policy: Antecedents …………......5 The Development of Comparative Foreign Policy……………..………...……6 Comparative Foreign Policy Approaches……………………………...………9 Comparative Foreign Policy Methods and Events Data ……………...……...10 Re-Evaluation ……………………………………………………………...…11 The Question of Foreign Policy Change ……………………………...……...15 Why Study Foreign Policy Change? …………………………………...…….16 Foreign Policy Change: A ‘Neglected Phenomenon’ …………………......…18 The Development of Foreign Policy Change …………………………...……20 The Dissertation: Contributions to the Study of Foreign Policy Change…….30 CHAPTER 3. REGIME TYPE AND FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE …………..…35 Introduction …………………………………………………………..……...35 Approaches to Foreign Policy Change ……………………………………....36 Regimes ………………………………………………………………………37 Democratic Regimes and Non-Democratic Regimes ……………………......38 Regime Effects in the Literature ……………………………………………..39 Structural Constraints in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change ……….43 Political Constraints in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change ……….47 The Nature of Opposition in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change ...……..53 Audience Costs in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change …….....60 ‘Two-Level Games’ and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change ……………..62 The Nature of Legitimacy in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change …..65 The Nature of the Public in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change ……….70 The Nature of Organized Interests in Democratic and Non-Democratic Regimes and Prospects for Foreign Policy Change …..74 Summary …………………………………………………………………….78 iii CHAPTER 4. INSTITUTIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE …………….80 Below the Regime Surface …………………………………………………..80 Presidential and Parliamentary Systems …………………………………….81 Contextual Approaches ………………………………………………………92 Presidentialism and Divided Government …………………...………………94 Presidentialism and Multipartism ……………………………………………98 Parliamentary Democracy: Single-Party Governments and Coalition Governments ………………………………….101 Coalition Governments and the Number of Parties in Parliament ……...…..106 Non-Democracies and Military Governments ……………………………...108 Foreign Policy in the Less Developed Countries …………………………...111 Leadership Change and Foreign Policy Change ……………...…………….113 CHAPTER 5. METHODS AND ANALYSIS ………………………………….…..116 Data: The Dependent Variables …………………………………………….116 Events Data …………………………………………………………………116 United Nations Voting …………………………………...…………………120 United Nations General Assembly Affinity Scores ………………………...122 Important Votes in the United Nations General Assembly …………………125 Independent Variable: Democracy/Non-Democracy ……………………….127 Independent Variable: Presidential/Parliamentary Democracy ………….....130 Independent Variable: Divided Government ………………………...….…..131 Independent Variable: Multi-Party Systems ………………………………..131 Independent Variable: Coalition Government ……………………...………132 Independent Variable: Military Government ……..………………………...132 Independent Variable: Less Developed Countries ………………………….133 Independent Variable: Leadership Change ……………………….………....135 Description of Data ………………………………...……………………….135 Control Variables ………………………………………………...…………136 Control Variable: National Capabilities …………………………….………136 Control Variable: Coups d’ Etat ……………………………………………137 Control Variable: Wealth ………………………………………..……….…138 Control Variable: Alliance ………………………………………………….138 Control Variable: U.S. Economic Assistance ………………………………139 Control Variables: Polity and Polity Differences …………………...……...140 Control Variable: Cold War ………………………………………….……..141 Methodology …………………….………………………………………….142 Hypothesis 1: Democracy and Non-Democracy ……………………………145 Hypothesis 2: Presidential and Parliamentary Democracies ………………..153 Hypothesis 3: Presidentialism and Divided Government ……………….…..156 Hypothesis 4: Presidentialism and Multipartism ………………..………….158 Hypothesis 5: Coalition Government ………………………………………160 Hypothesis 6: Effective Number of Parties and Coalition Parliamentary Government ………………………………….163 iv Hypothesis 7: Military Government ………………………………………..165 Hypothesis 8: Development and Foreign Policy Change …………………..167 Hypothesis 9: Executive Change …………………………………………...169 CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSION …………………………………………………….171 Findings ………………………………...…………………………………...173 The Dissertation in Perspective …………………………………….………187 Implications for Future Research ………………………….………………..191 BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………………………194 APPENDIX A. COPDAB DATA DESCRIPTION ………………………………...219 APPENDIX B. POLITY DATA DESCRIPTION…………………………………..222 APPENDIX C. SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES…………………..……228 APPENDIX D. HISTOGRAMS FOR DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES……………………………...230 APPENDIX E CORRELATION MATRICES FOR INDEPENDENT VARIABLES……………..236 VITA ………………………………………………………………………………..239 v ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the effects that different political regime types and institutional arrangements have on the amount of foreign policy change occurring a state. Scholars in International Relations studying the democratic peace have identified a relationship between characteristics of democracy and non-democracy and the behavior of states. Scholars in Comparative Politics have noted that certain institutions more easily facilitate policy change. This dissertation synthesizes these perspectives and develops and tests a number of hypotheses relating regime type, institutional arrangement, and party system to the amount of foreign policy change a state undertakes. Employing a pooled, cross-sectional time series design, the findings show that democracies are more stable in their foreign policies than are non-democracies, and that states with different political institutions and party systems differ with regard to the amount of foreign policy change they undertake. vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Beginning in the 1980s, scholars of foreign policy began to examine what was called "a neglected phenomenon" in foreign policy – the study of foreign policy change. Real-world events and attempts to improve the development of theory led scholars to address questions of when, why and how states restructure and reorient their foreign policies. The study of foreign policy change is an important endeavor. Significant foreign policy changes can be disruptive to the international system, with ramifications felt throughout the world. The study of foreign policy change also provides unique opportunities to examine the dynamics of the foreign policy decision- making process and those factors that influence and constrain it. The bulk of scholarly work in the area of foreign policy change has consisted largely of theoretical frameworks, single case studies, or studies of particular groups of countries. Notably lacking are major empirical studies that cast explanatory variables across time and space, providing results that can be generalized across multiple cases. The purpose of this dissertation is to test empirically a series of variables that have previously been largely ignored in the study of foreign policy change and to do so in a way that produces generalizable results. Specifically, this dissertation will test the effects that different regime types and institutional arrangements have on the amount of foreign policy change a state will undertake. While the concept of regime has received extensive treatment in recent
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