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Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and the Future of Turkey's Relations with the West

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Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and the Future of Turkey's Relations with the West Turkish Foreign Policy: Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and the Future of Turkey’s Relations with the West. by Matthew T. Gullo Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Bahar Leventoğlu, Committee Chair ___________________________ Joseph M. Grieco, Committee Member ___________________________ Bruce W. Jentleson, Committee Member Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of the Master of the Arts in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2012 ABSTRACT Turkish Foreign Policy: Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and the Future of Turkey’s Relations with the West. by Matthew T. Gullo Department of Political Science Duke University Date:_______________________ Approved: ___________________________ Bahar Leventoğlu, Committee Chair ___________________________ Joseph M. Grieco, Committee Member ___________________________ Bruce W. Jentleson, Committee Member Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of the Master of the Arts in the Department of Political Science in the Graduate School of Duke University 2012 Copyright by Matthew Thomas Gullo 2012 Abstract One of the more perplexing foreign policy questions of our day pertains to the conditions of Turkish-Western relations and cooperation. The undergoing transformation of Turkish- Western relations over the last five years has produced much trepidation that the “model of democracy” in the Middle East is moving towards political Islam, and that Turkey is leaving behind its “Western” allies to pursue a foreign policy of “neo-Ottomanism.” The notion of neo-Ottomanism as a foreign policy doctrine is essential not only for understanding future cooperation in Turkish-Western relations, but also for appreciating the far reaching effects on concurrent geopolitical outcomes in light of the ongoing “Arab Spring”, the Arab-Israeli peace process, and future reliance on the state of Turkey as a vital NATO member. Despite its significance, the current discourse on Turkish-Western relations is devoid of a systematic definition and understanding of how “neo-Ottomanism” affects cooperation with the West. This paper aims to achieve an understanding of the conditions in which cooperation should occur in Turkish-Western relations, by first correcting the term “neo-Ottomanism” and updating our understanding of it by incorporating audience costs. Under this decision-making model of “neo-Ottomanism 2.0” a comparative historical analysis will designate the new audience costs associated with Turkish foreign policy and will reevaluate contemporary Turkish politics. By constructing a theory illustrating how audience costs at the domestic level of politics incur costs on the current Turkish government that make cooperation less likely, this paper demonstrates the conditions under which cooperation should occur between the West and Turkey. Ultimately, this paper will show that when audience costs associated with “neo-Ottomanism 2.0” are not high enough and do not threaten the government’s hold on power, cooperation with Western powers will ensue. iv Dedication In loving memory of Peter DeMasi and Carmine R. Gullo for their love of family and unweaving confidence that: “I could do it”. v Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................................................................. iv Dedication ..........................................................................................................................................................................................v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ................................................................................................................................................................................ vii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................................. viii 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Towards Western-Turkish Cooperation ......................................................................................................................13 2.1 Audience Costs ............................................................................................................................................................1 4 2.2 Audience Costs for neo-Ottomanism 2.0 ..........................................................................................................22 2.2.1 Issue Intensity ........................................................................................................................................................24 2.3 Cooperation ...................................................................................................................................................................2 9 2.4 The Decision-making model ...................................................................................................................................35 2.5 Conditions for Cooperation ...................................................................................................................................43 3. Methods .......................................................................................................................................................................................4 7 3.1 Other Approaches ......................................................................................................................................................4 7 3.2 Historical Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................4 8 3.3 Case Selection ..............................................................................................................................................................5 2 4. Between neo-Ottoman and Kemalism ...........................................................................................................................5 7 4.1 Kemalism .......................................................................................................................................................................5 8 4.2 Neo-Ottomanism ......................................................................................................................................................... 64 4.3 Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 ..................................................................................................................................................6 6 4.4 Turkey's Intrinsic Paradoxical Nature ...............................................................................................................7 2 vi 5. Comparative Historical Analysis ......................................................................................................................................7 5 5.1 Overview .........................................................................................................................................................................7 5 5.2 End of the Deep State.................................................................................................................................................82 5.3 The Birth of Neo-Ottomanism ..............................................................................................................................85 5.4 Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and its Audience: The Domestic Level ................................................................... 89 5.4.1 The Rise of the Turkish Economy ..................................................................................................................92 5.4.2 European Union Membership .........................................................................................................................97 5.4.3 Turkey's Growing Soft Power .........................................................................................................................99 5.5 Neo-Ottomanism 2.0 and its Audience: The International Level ........................................................ 102 5.5.1 International Polarity and Power ............................................................................................................... 102 5.5.2 Fear of Isolationism .......................................................................................................................................... 107 5.5 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................................... 111 6. Case Studies ............................................................................................................................................................................ 113 6.1 NATO Missle Shield ................................................................................................................................................. 113 6.1.1 Backgroud ............................................................................................................................................................
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