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ISSN 2239-2122 9 IAI Research Papers The EU is changing, Turkey too, and - above all - there is systemic change and crisis all G round, ranging from economics, the spread of democratic norms and foreign policy. LOBAL The IAI Research Papers are brief monographs written by one or N.1 European Security and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, This research paper explores how the EU and Turkey can enhance their cooperation in more authors (IAI or external experts) on current problems of inter- T edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Erik Jones, 2011 URKEY GLOBAL TURKEY national politics and international relations. The aim is to promote the political, economic, and foreign policy domains and how they can find a way out of the stalemate EU-Turkey relations have reached with the lack of progress in accession greater and more up to date knowledge of emerging issues and N. 2 Democracy in the EU after the Lisbon Treaty, IN trends and help prompt public debate. edited by Raaello Matarazzo, 2011 negotiations and the increasing uncertainty over both the future of the European project E after the Eurozone crisis and Turkey’s role in it. UROPE IN EUROPE N. 3 The Challenges of State Sustainability in the Mediterranean, edited by Silvia Colombo and Nathalie Tocci, 2011 A non-profit organization, IAI was founded in 1965 by Altiero Spinel- li, its first director. N. 4 Re-thinking Western Policies in Light of the Arab Uprisings, SENEM AYDIN-DÜZGIT is Assistant Professor at the Istanbul Bilgi University and Senior POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND FOREIGN POLICY edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Miguel Haubrich-Seco, 2012 Research Affiliate of the Istanbul Policy Centre (IPC). The Institute aims to promote understanding of international politics DIMENSIONS OF TURKEY’S EVOLVING through research, promotion of political ideas and strategies, disse- N. 5 The transformation of the armed forces: the Forza NEC program, S ANNE DUNCKER is Project Manager at Mercator Stiftung. mination of knowledge and education in the field of foreign policy. edited by Michele Nones and Alessandro Marrone, 2012 RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU IAI main research sectors are: European institutions and policies; Italian foreign policy; trends in the global economy and internatio- N. 6 Strengthening the Africa-EU Partnership on Peace and Security, DANIELA HUBER is Researcher in the Mediterranean and Middle East Programme nalisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean and the Middle East; edited by Nicoletta Pirozzi, 2012 at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome. PAPER security and defence; and transatlantic relations. N. 7 Stop Mass Atrocities, EMIN FUAT KEYMAN is Director of the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC) CH edited by Luis Peral and Nicoletta Pirozzi, 2013 and Professor at Sabancı University. N. 8 The Uneasy Balance, EAR S edited by Riccardo Alcaro and Andrea Dessì, 2013 NAThaLIE TOCCI is Deputy Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) in Rome. RE N. 9 Global Turkey in Europe, Edited by Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Anne Duncker, IAI Daniela Huber, E. Fuat Keyman and Nathalie Tocci, 2013 Senem Aydın-Düzgit et al. Senem Aydın-Düzgit Edited by Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Anne Duncker, Daniela Huber, E. Fuat Keyman and Nathalie Tocci 9788868120603_300_MP_2 www.nuovacultura.it ISBN 978-88-6812-060-3 SEGUICI SUI SOCIAL NETWORK 20.00 EURO IAI Research Papers Global Turkey in Europe Political, Economic, and Foreign Policy Dimensions of Turkey’s Evolving Relationship with the EU Edited by Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Anne Duncker, Daniela Huber, E. Fuat Keyman and Nathalie Tocci in cooperation with Edizioni Nuova Cultura Acknowledgement This publication has been generously supported by the Mercator Stiftung. Special thanks to Anna Gaone and Emanuela Pergolizzi for their invaluable assistance in copy-editing. Series Editor Natalino Ronzitti First published 2013 by Edizioni Nuova Cultura For Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Via Angelo Brunetti 9 - I-00186 Roma www.iai.it Copyright © 2013 Edizioni Nuova Cultura - Roma ISBN: 9788868120603 Cover: by the author Graphic Composition: by the author The unauthorized reproduction of this book, even partial, carried out by any means, including photocopying, even for internal or didactic use, is prohibited by copyright. Table of Contents List of Contributors .......................................................................................................................7 List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................9 Introduction Daniela Huber and Nathalie Tocci ........................................................................................13 Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 17 Part I – The Eurozone Crisis and New Dynamics in Turkey’s Accession Process The Eurozone Crisis and New Accession Scenarios 1. Turkey and Europe. A New Perspective Kemal Derviş..................................................................................................................21 2. Will Turkey Find its Place in Post-Crisis Europe? Nathalie Tocci and Dimitar Bechev .....................................................................31 Turkish Relations with Key EU Member States 3. EU-Turkey Relations – A Glimmer of Hope? Dimitar Bechev .............................................................................................................45 4. Boosting Negotiations with Turkey – What Can France Do? Ahmet Insel .....................................................................................................................49 5. The Pivotal Relationship. German Doubts and the Turkish-EU Accession Process Gerald Knaus and Christian Altfuldisch ............................................................59 6. Fishing for Gas and More in Cypriot Waters Michael Emerson ..........................................................................................................65 Part II – Turkey’s Domestic Challenges Economy 7. The Changing Structure of Turkey’s Trade and Industrial Competitiveness: Implications for the EU Daniel Gros and Can Selçuki ...................................................................................85 Democracy 8. EU-Turkey Relations and the Stagnation of Turkish Democracy Senem Aydın-Düzgit and E. Fuat Keyman .....................................................103 5 9. Presidentialism vs. Parliamentarism in Turkey Ergun Özbudun ..................................................................................................... 165 10. Does the EU Still Have Leverage on Questions of Freedom of Expression in Turkey? Michael Leigh ............................................................................................................. 171 The Kurdish Question 11. To Europe and Back: The Three Decades of Kurdish Struggle in Turkey Dilek Kurban ...............................................................................................................175 12. Turkey, Syria, and the Kurds. There Goes the Neighborhood Piotr Zalewski ............................................................................................................187 Part III – The Arab Spring and Foreign Policy Cooperation The Transformation of the Mediterranean Region and Perspectives for Turkish and EU Neighborhood Policies 13. The EU, Turkey, and the Arab Spring: Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Integration Kemal Kirişci ...............................................................................................................195 of the EU’s and Turkey’s Responses to the “Arab Spring” 14. Unfinished Transitions: Challenges and Opportunities Emiliano Alessandri and Meliha Benli Altunışik .........................................221 15. Making Sense of Turkish-EU Relations in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring Bülent Aras ..................................................................................................................247 Common Foreign Policy Challenges in Three Strategic States 16. Turkey, Syria, and the Western Strategic Imperative Ian O. Lesser ................................................................................................................259 17. Turkish-Israeli Relations in a Changing Strategic Environment Daniela Huber ............................................................................................................263 18. A Tale of Wasted Opportunities: The EU, Turkey, and Iran’s Nuclear Issue Riccardo Alcaro .........................................................................................................271 Transforming Turkey-EU Relations: Ground for Hope E. Fuat Keyman and Senem Aydın-Düzgit ..........................................................................275 References ................................................................................................................................... 283 6 List of Contributors is Senior Fellow in the Transatlantic Relations Programme at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), Rome. Riccardo Alcaro is Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) in Washington. Emiliano Alessandri is Analyst at the European Stability Initiative in Berlin. Christian Altfuldisch is Chairman of the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s Strategic Research Center (SAM) and Public Policy Fellow at the Wilson Center. Bülent Aras is Professor at the Department of International Relations, Middle East Technical University, Ankara.
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