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China in the 21St Century: Is Global Leadership Possible?

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China in the 21St Century: Is Global Leadership Possible? DOMESTIC ANALYSIS | BY GEORGI IVANOV* CHINA IN THE 21ST CENTURY: IS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP POSSIBLE? Sustainable Development, Political Legitimacy and Foreign Policy hina’s rising star on the world stage is accompanied by significant economic challenges that bring extensive domestic and foreign political implications. To ensure its growth and stability, China must turn to sustainable development, which, accompanied by rising personal wealth, C will cause problems for the current one-party political system in China. Beijing must adjust to allow more political pluralism if it hopes to gain the internal political legitimacy to be a global leader in legitimating a multilateral foreign policy in the context of an increasingly multipolar world. The 21st century is witnessing the decline of the Why is China important? United States as the foremost power in the world, and the gradual emergence of a multipolar order Since the death of Mao Tse Dong in 1976, China with China at the top, on track to becoming the began a gradual opening to world markets, in a world’s economic powerhouse. The purpose of framework that combined strong political control this paper is to provide an overarching survey of of economic policy with a capitalist-influenced China’s future role in the world, in parallel with model of production and demand. For over three some of the challenges it faces in the coming decades now, China has grown at astounding years and decades. The central theme is going to annual rates and has effectively become the se- talk about sustainable development and the cor- cond largest economy in the world after the Unit- responding need for China to provide both politi- ed States1. Alongside, it has overtaken America as cal leadership and the lead in materializing poli- the biggest exporter and consumer of energy2. In cies that respect and work with the natural envi- the foreseeable future, we are going to witness ronment, rather than destroy it. At stake is the America’s gradual decline from the world stage, idea and vision that will replace the American-led to be taken up by China in the 21st century. Amer- world order since the end of the Cold War and it ica came to the fore after World War II largely due may very well fall to China to provide the needed to the fact that it was the only intact economy not leadership and insight. destroyed and decimated by war. However, today WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 28 DOMESTIC ANALYSIS | BY GEORGI IVANOV we live in a unique time – our world is bigger and Sustainable development extends beyond power more connected than anytime in recorded histo- generation. It also encompasses industrial capaci- ry. China is becoming a central engine that must ty, particularly capital-intensive industries, such as not only provide economic leadership, but also a mining and heavy industry. As the world’s manu- vision for the world with the political will to carry facturing center, emissions and waste products it out. from factories in China are a growing environ- mental and health problem. Polluted air in cities, Sustainable Development acidified soil, unacceptably quality of drinking water and the negative impact on groundwater On a world scale, fossil fuels continue to be the and rivers are fundamental challenges for Beijing primary method of meeting the energy needs of to address, if it has any pretensions for becoming major countries. One exception is France, whose a superpower in this century7. Carbon neutrality is energy mix is heavily favoured towards nuclear a term that refers to developing manufacturing power. However, since sustainable development processes that ideally have a net emission of no became a mainstream phrase in the 1980s, the sulphur and carbon-based gases. On a practical ecological footprint of human activity has be- level, it means developing means of scrubbing come an important consideration for projects emissions for harmful gases, storing them under- both in developed and developing countries. The ground or developing links with other industries first step in sustainable development lies in devel- that might have a use for these waste products; oping power generation techniques that mini- they are not limited to gaseous emissions, but mize the reliance on fossil fuels. In the first decade also solid waste products that can be used in dif- of this century, we have seen several major mile- ferent manufacturing processes. stones achieved toward renewable energy pro- duction. In absolute numbers, the growth of solar An additional challenge that comes to China with and wind investment has been startling, but rela- a rapidly growing economy is increased prosperi- tive to overall world energy production, still re- ty. While a new wealthy class of industrialists, tains a very small share3. Policy-wise, Europe is a bankers and other professionals is taking shape in leader in encouraging the development of re- China, the average person will also feel the effects newable energy: by 2020, 20% of power generat- of a more powerful economy: better wages and a ed in the EU must come from renewable sources4. higher level of consumption of both goods and While China’s investment in renewable energy is services. When talking about 1,3 billion people, greater than that of any other country, it is still one needs to consider the kind of demand in- only having a small impact on the overall energy creased consumption will create on existing infra- mix of the country and it is necessary for Beijing structure, energy usage, the surrounding natural to implement a long-term focus in this regard5. environment, and the global impact it might have However, the emissions of CO2 emitted by China from additional imports as demand for more and in the coming years are set to increase, and that different kinds of goods increases. The response must be taken into account when talking about by the Chinese government can take a number of renewable energy targets.6 dimensions: from slowing the growth of incomes, and thus, demand, to creating a culture in the general population that is sensitive to environ- mental issues, or promoting goods and services that are construed with an appreciation of mini- Policy-wise, Europe is a leader in encouraging mizing their ecological impact. In essence, the the development of renewable energy: by 2020, role of the government is central in creating a 20% of power generated in the EU must come hybrid of these policies that will give priority to ecologically-sensitive consumption habits and from renewable sources. the goods and processes that will support them. 29 POLITICAL REFLECTION | SPECIAL ISSUE 2012 DOMESTIC ANALYSIS | BY GEORGI IVANOV Overall, the premise of this section is as follows: not have ability to change in the long run is not the first tier of China’s coming global role is found sustainable. In other words, China needs to find a in encouraging and implementing sustainable different, peaceful means of handling difference development. The three main themes are an em- of opinion and dissent in order for the current phasis on emission-free power generation (wind, regime to maintain political legitimacy. solar, nuclear), reforming heavy industry and capi- tal-intensive activities to ultimately achieve car- Domestic political legitimacy, gained through bon neutrality, and finally encouraging ecologi- wider spaces for public discussion, participation cally-friendly habits in a large population that will, and influence in the political process, will be cru- on average, become increasingly wealthier in this cial if Beijing is to have a more influential global century and consumer more as a consequence. role in turn. There are several political reasons for China must consider these three areas very care- this: one is that predictable domestic politics with fully, because they can set the paradigm for envi- conflict management methods that do not in- ronmental global leadership by the Celestial Em- volve military means give China the ability to pro- pire. Implications of Economic Growth for Internal The trouble for China’s Communist Party is Political Challenges and Foreign Policy that economic growth has the potential to The growing affluence of China is going to bring hasten the demise of its political legitimacy. with it a set of political problems that the coun- The historical experience of the last major try’s one-party rule will find increasingly difficult democratic throes in China is not flattering: to confront. The first challenge is that the average the forceful suppression of the 1989 person will have the ability to increasingly ques- tion the existing order, catalysed by greater per- Tiananmen Square uprisings raised questions sonal wealth. In other words, democratic tenden- about Beijing’s ability to deal with large-scale cies in a population are correlated with increased protest economic means and this development will come to odds with the paradigm of one-party rule in China. mote political predictability in other conflict- The effective question is qualitative: can pluralism prone areas of the world, such as the Middle East exist in the context of a charismatic or one-party or conflict-ridden areas of Africa without being political system? The historical precedents point perceived as hypocritical. The second reason is to a negative answer: the USSR, for instance, or the heightened trust credit it would receive from Franco’s Spain, show that this kind of regime does other major international partners on issues relat- not stand the test of time and once collapsed, is ed to a wide variety of policy types: security coop- replaced by imperfect, nascent pluralism. eration, environment, economic and trade rela- tions and peace promotion. The trouble for China’s Communist Party is that economic growth has the potential to hasten the Chinese foreign policy will operate in a multipolar demise of its political legitimacy.
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