How Wales voted in December – and why?
Richard Wyn Jones & Jac Larner 22/09/2020 Outline of Session
• General Election Overview
• How did the Tories make gains in Wales? 1. Short Term Factors 2. Long Term Factors Source: BBC Wales 2017 2019
Source: BBC Wales Source: Larner (2020) Explaining the result
• Result can be explained by a combination of short term factors that uniquely affected this election, and long-term processes and trends that have been driving political behaviour for decades. The Funnel of Causality
Long term Short term The 2019 Welsh Election Study
• Carried out by YouGov in two waves: pre and post
• Sample Size: Pre wave = 2,112 Post wave = 2,068
• Aimed to replicate questions from previous election studies and be comparable with 2019 Scottish Election Study.
• Funded by ESRC Grant ES/T01556X/1 (Wyn Jones, R., Wincott, D., Larner, J. & Poole, E. G.; 2019) Short-Term Factors The Brexit Election?
• From Conservative point of view, 2019 was what the 2017 election should have looked like
• Brexit was central battleground issue – other issues struggled to have impact
• Party fortunes sharply divided by Brexit vote What issues defined the election?
“As far as you're concerned, what is the single most important issue facing the UK?”
Ø Open Question - Respondents write whatever they want All Respondents Remain Voters Leave Voters
Most Important issue by 2019 General Election Vote
90 Conservative Labour Lib Dems Plaid Cymru Brexit Party 80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 Brexit Health Economy Environment Welfare Leaders
Leadership perceptions understood to be a key influence in political support and voting (Clarke et al., 2004; Scully, 2013).
Ø Standard leadership question: 0-10 ‘likeability’ scale Pre-Election Mean Leader Thermometer Ratings (0 – 10) 5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3 Price * Johnson Sturgeon Drakeford * Co rbyn Swinso n Farage Davies * % ”Don’t know" 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 Davies Price Drakeford Swinson Sturgeon Farage Corbyn Johnson 2015 2017 2019 Long-Term Factors Social Class
“Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail.” (Pulzer, 1967)
• Class long thought of as central ‘cleavage’ of British politics (Butler and Stokes, 1969)
National Identity National Identity has played a central role in vote choice in Wales for as long as survey research has been carried out (see Balsom et al., 1983)
Ø Welsh identity correlated with support for Labour and Plaid Cymru Ø British identity correlated with support for the Conservative Party
More recent work shows that national identity is closely linked to Brexit vote + emphasizes the significance of English identity in Wales National Identity and 2017 Vote
British & English
English only
British only
British & Welsh
Other Identity
Welsh only
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Co nservative Labour Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru UKIP Other National Identity and 2019 Vote
British & English
English only
British only
British & Welsh
Other Identity
Welsh only
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Co nservative Labour Liberal Democrat Plaid Cymru Brexit Party Other Change 2019-2017
British Only Welsh Only English and British Welsh and British Other Identity 8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Co nservatives Labour Lib Dems Plaid Cymru Brexit Party Parting thoughts • Is class voting obsolete in Wales?
• Is demographic change slowly undermining Labour's dominance?
• What will be the impact of reducing the number of Welsh constituencies - more proportional outcomes?
• When and how will the direct impact of Brexit recede?
• Most importantly, back in December 2019 hardly anyone had heard of Covid-19. It has now turned Welsh politics (like the rest of the world) on its head. What will be the effects of this? Diolch am wrando
Thanks for listening