14.12.2020-20.12.2020 • No: 285

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RECONCILING WESTERN ASPIRATIONS AND EASTERN SYMPATHIES: THE CASE OF MOLDOVA AND GAGAUZIA On November 15, 2020, Moldova held the trying to become an independent republic Any mention of unification of Moldova with second round of its fourth regular presiden- and declared independence in 1991. How- Romania produce strong and negative reac- tial election, on which the incumbent Presi- ever, in 1994 Gagauzia was peacefully rein- tions among the residents of Gagauzia. dent Igor Dodon ran against his main rival tegrated to Moldova as a “National-Territo- Despite its compact geographic, economic Maia Sandu, who represented the pro-Euro- rial Autonomous Unit" and was granted a and demographic dimensions, Gagauzia has pean electorate of Moldova. The victory of right to self-determination along with other gained certain political significance at the Maia Sandu over President Igor Dodon, who political powers. The fact is that the Gagauz regional level. For actors like Turkey, Rus- took anti-European and pro-Russian stance, language, which is one of the official lan- sia, Ukraine and Romania, the factor of Ga- by a margin of 57.72% to 42.28% clearly guages of Gagauzia along with Romanian gauzia has become an important one in their showed the prevalence of the pro-European and Russian, belongs to the Oghuz branch of relations with Moldova during recent years. sentiments among Moldovans. At the same the Turkic languages. Hence, Gagauz lan- For example, in August 2020 Turkey time, the final results of the presidential guage is very related and mutually under- opened its Consulate General in Comrat, election have also shown a high degree of standable with Turkish, Azerbaijani and and so did Ukraine in October 2020. Russia polarization of the Moldovan electorate by Crimean Tatar languages. However, it maintains friendly relations with Gagauzia different parameters. Thus, incumbent pres- should be admitted that Russian is more and welcomes its efforts to establish more ident Igor Dodon is highly popular among commonly used than Gagauz or Moldovan intense cooperation with the EAEU. From ethnic minorities, elderly population and languages in Gagauzia, and the Gagauz lan- the point of view of neighboring Romania Moldovans migrants living Russia and other guage and identity often serves as a political and the supporters of the idea of unification former Soviet states while Maia Sandu has and sociocultural tool to differentiate Ga- of Romania with Moldova, Gagauzia is seen large proportions of support amongst youth, gauzia from the rest of Moldova. as one of the major obstacles. There is no ethnic Moldovans living in central regions Apart from its own ethnic identity and cul- doubt that Gagauzia would proclaim its in- of the country and those living in western tural originality, Gagauzia differs a lot from dependence if Moldova decided to become countries. the rest of Moldova in terms of preferences a part of Romania. Gagauzia is one of the regions of Moldova and views on some of the important political Several reasons contributed to increased and where the level of support of pro-Russian issues in the country. As it was mentioned manifold political importance of this small and/or anti-European political forces has earlier, presidential candidates with anti-Eu- Turkic minority in Moldova over the last traditionally been exceptionally high. Thus, ropean, pro-Russian and pro-Communist several years. Firstly, the Moldova’s sympa- in the second round of presidential election agenda easily get the biggest winning mar- thies towards Europe under conditions of of 2020, President Igor Dodon received gins on elections in Gagauzia. The same reg- growing divide between Russia and the 94.59% of the votes in Gagauzia, which is ularity applies to legislative elections. Par- West created agitations in Gagauzia, which the highest share of votes among regions of ties from socialist, communist and Euro- caused a political mobilization among Ga- Moldova in favor of either candidates. In the sceptic spectrums regularly get landslide gauz people. Secondly, the situation around previous presidential election of 2016, victories in Gagauzia. For instance, in the Crimea raised Chisinau’s concerns over its 98.89% of the votes in Gagauzia went in fa- recent parliamentary election of 2019, the territorial integrity and political stability. vor of Igor Dodon. Pro-Russian and anti-Eu- Party of Socialists of the Republic of Mol- The central government of Moldova defi- ropean candidates and parties in elections al- dova (PSRM) got 31.15% of the votes na- nitely did not want to have a second Trans- ways win by tremendous margins in Gagau- tionwide in Moldova, while in Gagauzia it dnistria problem on its southern territories, zia. received 83.72% of the vote cast. The gen- which made it reconsider its stance towards The Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagau- eral political views of the people of Gagau- its Turkic minority population. Thirdly, the zia (Gagauz: Gagauz Yeri) is an administra- zia are characterized by extreme Euroscep- relative advances that Moldova made in tive division within Moldova that enjoys a ticism, Moldovenism (strong adherence to Eastern Partnership before 2016, compared great degree of political autonomy. It has an the Moldovan identity), Russophilia and So- to its other members, and recent revitaliza- area of 1,832 sq.km, which is 5.4% of the cial Conservatism. Gagauzia heavily op- tion of pro-European sentiments in the Mol- territory of Moldova, and has a population posed every single European initiative of the dovan politics that culminated with the elec- of 161.7 thousand people. The population of Government of Moldova and decisively tion of Sandu put the Gagauz agenda at the Gagauzia is predominantly rural, with only stood for any movement towards closer alli- forefront of Moldovan politics. 36.2% living in urban areas. The capital and ance with Russia. One of the brightest indi- The presidential election of 2020 in Mol- largest city of Gaguzia is the city of Comrat, cators of the political views of the people of dova has shown the willingness of the Mol- which has a population of nearly 20 thou- Gagauzia was the referendum of 2014 initi- dovan people to revitalize its movement to- sand people. Over four fifths of the popula- ated by the communist faction, on which wards the European integration. The ad- tion are ethnic Gagauz people who are a 98.9% of the residents of Gagauzia indi- vancement of Moldova towards Europe Turkic-speaking ethnic group who, unlike cated that they would support independence within the Eastern Partnership initiative is most other Turkic-speaking people, profess of Gagauzia in case if Moldova lost its sov- likely to accelerate after the early parliamen- Orthodox Christian faith. The rest of the ereignty, and 98.47% of them wanted Mol- tary election scheduled for 2021. However, population besides ethnic kin group Moldo- dova to be member of the Customs Union, the factor of different minorities and that of vans are composed of Ukrainian, Russian which nowadays is the Eurasian Economic Gagauzia, in particular, will require new and and Bulgarian minorities. During the pro- Union (EAEU). Interestingly, Gagauz peo- balanced policies from the government of cess of the collapse of the USSR, Gagauzia ple are among the most ardent supporters of Moldova in their efforts to reinitiate their struggled with the Moldovan government Moldovenism and Moldovan independence. movement towards Europe.

Written by Kanat Makhanov, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture • Government delegations of Kyrgyzstan • During eight months of 2020, Turkey’s ex- • The Embassy of Kazakhstan in the Repub- and Uzbekistan had a meeting in Bishkek, ports of chemical products to Kazakhstan lic of Korea and the National Academic where they discussed issues of border de- amounted to $61.2 million, increasing by Library of Kazakhstan held an online limitation and demarcation. The Chairman 14.6% compared to the same period last presentation of a collection of Abai’s po- of the State Committee for National Secu- year. However, in August 2020, Turkey ems “Altyn shakyrakta shyrgalgan en” rity, Kamchybek Tashiyev, headed the supplied products worth $6.04 million, (The song sung in the spiritual home) in Kyrgyzstan’s delegation, while Uzbeki- which was 10.2% lower than in August Korean. The poems of the prominent Ka- stan was represented by the Deputy Prime 2019. From January to August 2020, Tur- zakh poet and philosopher were also read Minister, Mehriddin Khairiddinov. Ac- key’s export of chemical products to the in Kazakh by students of the Hankuk Uni- cording to Tashiyev, rapid completion of global market decreased by 14% and versity of Foreign Studies. The event was legal registration of the state border with equaled $11.4 billion. Exports of chemi- attended by well-known members of the cals accounted for 11.2% of the country’s academia from relevant fields (Inform.kz, Uzbekistan is of high importance for Kyr- total exports (Kazinform.kz, 20.12.2020). 15.12.2020). gyzstan in order to create favorable condi- tions for citizens (Kabar.kg, 15.12.2020). • Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexan- • The Government of Russia allocated $2 der Novak, visited Saudi Arabia and had a million for the implementation of the new • On December 18, 2020, the Council of meeting with his Saudi counterpart, Prince UNDP project called “Accelerating Post Heads of States of the Commonwealth of Abdulaziz bin Salman in Riyadh, during COVID-19 Economic Recovery through Independent States (CIS) had an online which they discussed cooperation in the Improved Livelihood, Employability, and meeting. The Council approved a revised OPEC+ multilateral format. Following the Regional Cooperation in Ferghana Val- concept for further development of the or- bilateral meeting, Novak noted that both ley”. The project intends to improve live- ganization and a plan of the main Russia and Saudi Arabia had confirmed lihoods and develop entrepreneurship in measures. The new document outlines commitment to the OPEC + deal. He also rural areas of the Fergana Valley in Tajik- economic cooperation as the key priority mentioned that Russia’s cooperation with istan. The signing ceremony of the project for the member states with a focus on fur- Saudi Arabia aimed to recover the oil mar- took place at the Ministry of Economic ther development of the free trade zone, ket. In January 2021, the alliance will Development and Trade of Tajikistan on digital economy and information security gradually increase crude oil production by 17 December 2020 (Tj.undp.org, (BelTA.by, 18.12.2020). 2 million barrels per day (TASS, 17.12.2020). • On December 14, 2020, working groups 20.12.2020). • The UNDP launched the Climate diplo- from India, Iran and Uzbekistan held an • A volume of Uzbekistan’s foreign debt in- macy and security project for Kyrgyzstan, online meeting and discussed joint usage creased during nine months of 2020. Ac- Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Presentation of of the Chabahar Port. President of Uzbek- cording to the recent report of Uzbeki- the project was held in Bishkek. The pro- istan Shavkat Mirziyoyev made this pro- stan’s Central Bank, as of October 1st it ject is intended to foster regional coopera- posal three days before, during the virtual amounted to $29.3 billion, increasing by tion on climate policy, involving academia summit with India’s Prime Minister, Nar- 19.7% or by $4.8 billion. The public and and the civil sector and encouraging them endra Modi. Representatives of India pro- private sector debt increased by $2.9 and to participate in climate discussions posed to hold “Chabahar Day” within the $1.9 billion, respectively. Higher borrow- through the preparation of positional state- International Maritime Summit that will ing of banks and textile enterprises caused ments on climate action. UNDP will ac- be hosted by India next month. The parties growth of the private sector debt. In total, tively work with youth organizations in mentioned an important role that the private sector attracted loans worth $3 bil- the three Central Asian states to empower Chabahar Port played in regional trade and lion (Kabar, 18.12.2020). youth to make decisions on climate action transportation (The Tribune, 14.12.2020). • According to data from the National Bank negotiations (Timesca.com, 18.12.2020). of Kyrgyzstan, in October 2020, migrant • A popular traditional Turkish board game, • Election campaigns of presidential candi- remittances amounted to $226.2 million dates, which will last until January 9, Mangala, along with Togyzqumalaq and and increased by $40 million than in Sep- Toguz Korgool, submitted by Kazakhstan, 2021, kicked off in Kyrgyzstan. Eighteen tember 2020 and by $5.8 million than in candidates will compete for the presidency Kyrgyzstan and Turkey were added to the October 2019. During 10 months of the UNESCO list of Intangible Cultural Herit- of the Republic where 3,544,403 citizens current year, migrant remittances equaled will have a right to vote on the Election age of Humanity. The decision was made almost $2 billion, which is lower by 45.6 during the 15th Session of Intergovern- Day scheduled for January 10, 2021. In to- million than in the same period last year. tal, 2,475 polling stations will be available mental Committee for the Safeguarding of In 2019, migrant remittances exceeded the Intangible Cultural Heritage held in the country on the Election Day and 45 $2.4 billion. Russia’s share in total remit- abroad (Russian.news.cn, 15.12.2020). online. The Foreign Ministry of Turkey tance inflows amounted to 98% (24.kg, praised UNESCO for adding traditional • Foreign and defense ministers of Ukraine 17.12.2020). Turkic strategic board games to the list and Turkey held a 2+2 meeting in the • Surplus in foreign trade balance positively (Trtworld.com, 19.12.2020). quadrilateral format. During the meeting, contributed to the growth of Azerbaijan’s • Minister of Culture of Mongolia, Sampil- the parties confirmed their commitments strategic foreign exchange reserves. Ac- dondov Chuluun, received the Ambassa- to implement previously reached agree- cording to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan dor of Turkey to Mongolia, Ahmet Yazal. ments and expand cooperation in political, (CBA), the reserves increased by 3.3% The officials discussed the museum pro- economic, socio-cultural and defense since the beginning of 2020 and amounted ject at Sage Tonyukuk complex and ex- fields, and issued a joint declaration. The to $50 billion, exceeding the country’s an- changed views on further expanding coop- Turkish side expressed support for nual gross domestic product. According to eration between the museums, libraries, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial in- the Chairman of the CBA Elman and theaters of the two countries. The tegrity, and reiterated its support for Rustamov, the financial sector of the coun- sides also exchanged views on cooperation Ukraine in its integration with the EU and try will end this year with good indicators, in preparation of specialists in the field of NATO (Aa.com.tr, 19.12.2020). despite uncertainties remaining in the global market (Azernews.az, 18.12.2020). arts and culture and exchange practices in • Azerbaijani Foreign Minister, Jeyhun the future (Montsame.mn, 15.12.2020). • The Union of Chambers and Commodity Bayramov, paid a working visit to the • For the first time, the Cambridge Univer- Kingdom of Belgium, where he met with Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) and the Moldovan Chamber of Commerce and In- sity Publishing House in partnership with the EU Commissioner for Neighborhood dustry signed a Memorandum of Under- the Embassy of Kazakhstan in the UK Policy and Enlargement, Oliver Varhely. standing (MoU) on the establishment of published a collection of selected works of The sides discussed issues of bilateral co- the “Turkey-Moldova Chamber of Com- one of the most prominent Kazakh scien- operation and partnership between Azer- merce and Industry Forum.” The MoU tists of the 19th century, Shokan baijan and the EU in trade, energy, was signed as part of the “Expo Business Valikhanov, in English. The event was transport and connectivity. Speaking Moldova 2020,” organized by the Moldo- held in a semi-online format within the about the current situation in the region, van Chamber of Commerce and Industry. walls of the Royal Geographical Society the Foreign Minister spoke about the de- The new Chamber of Commerce is ex- and was attended by the managing director velopment of a new security framework pected to boost the volume of trade and in- of the Cambridge Education Partnership at and prospects for cooperation in the region vestments between Turkey and Moldova the University of Cambridge, Jane Mann, with the cessation of hostilities taking advantage of the existing free trade and the Ambassador of Kazakhstan, Yer- (Azernews.az, 19.12.2020). agreement (Tobb.org.tr, 15.12.2020). lan Idrisov (Inform.kz, 17.12.2020).

Prepared by Saule Akhmetkaliyeva and Kanat Makhanov