No. 8 (15), August 2008 POLITICAL & SECURITY Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS “Viitorul” STATEWATCH Focus

Moldova under Water: A Crisis That Could Have Been Anticipated

The Rise of a New Russia: How Long “Independent Moldova” Can Survive?

The Uncertainty of the Republic of Moldova’s Security Policy in the Framework of the Regional Insecurity Increase

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The Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDS) Viitorul is a research, education and outreach organization which activates in the field of economic analysis, governance, law, political VIITORUL sciences, strategic and organizational science. It was set up in June 1993 in Moldova as a nongovernmental, not-for-profit organization, nonpolitical entity. No. 8 (15) 2 August 2008 STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL much on the actions of the Ukrainian Ukrainian the of actions the on much the situation ontheNistruriverdepended controlled, was River Prut the on situation population wasevacuated intime. but inundated, were Prut of bank right were floodedandover 30localitiesonthe Prut of bank left the on localities 27 result a As Lake. Stanca-Costesti the from water and Moldovanauthoritiesagreedtodischarge Dubăsari Lake(Nistru). lakes atSt artificial the in water of amount increased the by posed were threats greatest The country: PrutandNistru. the in rivers major two the of flow water increased to led Moldova of part Northern the in rainfalls heavy year, This assistance. international needed and droughts by affected was Moldova of Republic year, Last The ExtentoftheDisaster the Moldovanspecializedagencies. of capabilities management crisis the improve recommendations wereissuedinorderto affected. Attheendofarticle,several mostly were country the of South the and informed andbetterprepared.TheNorth management agencieswouldhavebeenbetter crisis country’s the if avoided, been have could disaster natural the by caused damage the situation. Therewerenohumanlosses,but Hungary andSlovakiawereinthesame Romania, Ukraine, flooding. of challenge the face to had Moldova August, of decade During thelastdaysofJulyandfirst Overview ânca-Costeşti (Prut) and the the and (Prut) ânca-Costeşti That Could Have Been Anticipated MoldovaWater: under Crisis A Policy Sector On July 30, Romanian Romanian 30, July On Domestic While the

the creationoftwogiantwavesanditwas to led gates the of opening The river. the in thus increasingsuddenlytheflow dam Novodnestrovsk the of gates the open risen whenUkraineannounceditdecidedto have Ukraine and Moldova between tensions authorities andtheseparatistregime.The Valcinet (Ocnita), townofSoroca, Cosernita (Briceni), Lipcani Sireuti, Criva, Drepcauti, of Villages evacuation. the organize to had on July28andinonenight authorities came alert first The first. hit were Ocnita and Briceni especially Moldova, of parts northern The camps. tent and hostels schools, the floodedareastotemporarysheltersin from authorities by evacuated were people Republic hasbeendestroyed.Some5,700 the of harvest wine the of part significant A agricultural landwerecoveredwithwater. flooded and836houses10,500haof As aresultoftherains,46villageswere next eightmonths. Cross launchedacampaignofhelpduringthe and tryingtoalleviatetheconsequencesRed three countriesamountstoonebillionEuros all in damage total The evacuated. were 000 40 and died persons 42 Romania, and Moldova Ukraine, in that declared Federation Cross Red The weather. bad from too suffered Slovakia and Hungary Romania, centuries. two last Moldova werethemostsevereduring and Ukraine hit that floods the that estimated International FederationofRedCross threat. under villages the from managed toevacuateintimethepopulation but unprepared, were authorities Moldovan Dubasari accumulationlakewouldresist.The not surethatthebarrierconstructedat [email protected] by IonMarandici of water water of Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH

(Criuleni), town of Vadul lui Voda (Chisinau), affected families. The persons who have lost

Delacau (Anenii-Noi), Braniste, Avrameni, their harvest will also receive compensations. August 2008 Reteni, Duruitoarea, Demeni (Riscani) were The harvest on a total area of 3318 hectares in flooded. In Briceni, a local school was flooded. private property was lost and it is estimated In Otaci, tens of families remained without that 5,400 families will get as compensation 10 natural gas for a few days. The water pump 000 lei for each hectare of farmland flooded. station that provides Chisinau with water was The Minister of Agriculture was announcing under threat, but during the whole period on August 5 that in the whole country there of crisis Constantin Becciev, the director of were 6900 hectares of farmland flooded of the municipal public company “Apa-Canal” which 5500 with crop. 3 declared the management of the company was prepared to cope with the flooding. International and National Expression of

Solidarity No. 8 (15) During the first days of disaster, 1371 children were evacuated from various summer camps. In order to evaluate the damage caused by During the first decade of August, the South the flood a special commission was created. of the country was affected. On August 11, According to the Commission, a total of 1 the level of Prut River has increased and some 813 houses and hundreds of summer houses areas of the Leca village in Cantemir district were flooded on the right bank. The damage were flooded as well as areas in natural on the left bank, in the separatist region of parks. The Prut water invaded the Ungheni- Transnistria was even greater. Despite the Vale border crossing point and threatened proposal, the unrecognized authorities in the Danuteni village. The villages of Serpeni, Tiraspol did not accept the help offered by the Puhaceni, Calfa, Anenii-Noi have suffered. Chisinau officials. The Stefan-Voda district was the one affected the most by the Nistru waters; villages of After the deluge, 3000 wells from the existing Talmaza, Purcari, Rascaieti, Ciobruciu, 4500 needed to be cleaned. For cleaning the Tudora, Olanesti, Crocmaz and Palanca wells a national project was started with suffered the most. a total budget of 700 000 lei. The ecologic damages were also enormous. Minister of The final evaluation of the Moldovan Ecology, Violeta Ivanov claimed the overflows Government states that the floods have caused “hurt” a lot the Moldovan flora and fauna. damages valued to 120 millions USD of which: 20% are damages to the infrastructure, 15% International relief services consider that are losses resulting from the flooding of Moldova asked too late for assistance from the agricultural areas. The bulk of the damage is international community. Especially pumps represented by the damage caused to houses, for evacuating the water were needed. The summer residencies, shops, summer camps, Transnistrian authorities asked instead for various health resorts etc. Most of the houses help from the Russian Federation Duma. Only were completely destroyed in Briceni (186) and later the leader of the self-proclaimed republic Stefan-Voda (34). addressed a message seeking help from the international community. At present, the most urgent task is to find housing for the remaining 233 families without The effort to overcome the disaster was shelter and to repair other 149 houses. As of understood by some parties as an attempt to August 28, the Moldovan Government bought organize political campaigning. The case of the 77 houses for the victims of the flooding. Liberal Party in Briceni district is revealing. It was considered that it is cheaper to buy Liberal Party has sent some of its young houses, than to build new ones. Another members to the villages of Drepcauti and governmental decision was to offer to each Criva in Briceni district to help the victims of victim for the purpose of rebuilding the the natural calamity. According to the press, homes: 1 ton of cement and 1, 5 m3 of wood. the mayor of Drepcauti and the president UNICEF offered 500 lei for each child from the of the district belonging to the Party of No. 8 (15) 4 August 2008 STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL families thatlosttheirshelters. the for facilities housing new building for money gather to order in opened was account bank second A tons. 5 73, weighing received were packages 8000 Chisinau. from were 1600 approx. which of donations made have and compassion showed persons 2650 whole a As agents. economic and population the from received was aid humanitarian of tons 4 31, as wellforeigngovernments.Generally, and banks private and agencies companies, state-owned were donors major The the moneywillbespentforcompensations. of part major The gathered. were lei millions the victimsasofAugust28,already17,5 On thepublicbankaccount,openedtohelp affected regions. leadership andcreatedcrisiscellsinthe Moldova Alliancepartymobilizeditslocal promised todonatethreewatercranes.Our additionally and villages both in victims the to lei 000 100 promised Party Liberal the in theregion.Asaresponseleaderof influence political gain would they fearing Communists chasedtheyoungpeopleaway disaster. the of consequences the fight to needed are still experts pumping high-capacity plus Items likedustmasks, household gloves information regarding the neededassistance. spread and situation the monitored Center Atlantic DisasterResponse Coordination promptly andsenthumanitarianaid.Euro- reacted Cross Red of Federation International international organizations,UNICEFand From aid. other and beds clothes, blankets, generators, power boats, rubber pumps, water sent They Moldova. assist to states major the were Japan and Republic Slovak Lithuanian Embassy,Italy,Canada,Greece, and US Federation, Russian Austria, Turkey, On thegovernmentallevel,CzechRepublic, Government. the by housing offered be should victims the all 10, November until that decided was or buildingnewhousesforthevictims.It taxes foreconomicagentsofferingdonations proposed adraftlawstipulatingwaiverfrom Government the donations, encourage To persons. private from aid receiving As ofAugust14,theGovernmentstopped The army played a significant role in helping helping in role significant a played army The assemble. not did Parliament the session, parliamentary extraordinary an for pleaded party Alliance Moldova Our if even and responsibility whole the assumed government the and presidency The Center. Forces andtheMeteorologicalPrognosis Armed the Affairs, Internal of Ministry the Protection andExceptionalSituationsfrom caused bytheFlood,DirectionforCivil Damage the Evaluating for Commission Governmental Extraordinary the Resources, Water for Agency the Aid, Humanitarian Reserves, PublicProcurementand management weretheAgencyforMaterial Major agenciesinvolvedinthecrisis Is Needed of CrisisManagementAgencies Capacity the Strengthening Thirdly, there should be a specialized specialized a be should there Thirdly, at leastaweekbefore. events such anticipate to able be would skills new acquiring and knowledge experience Western the to access having specialists qualified Higher services. meteorological the of capacities prognosis the in investment Secondly, probablythereshouldbemore in ordertoavoidsuchdisastersthefuture. the protectivedamsshouldbeconsolidated that is event the from learnt be to lesson first the Anyway, earlier. consolidated been have could dams the and anticipated been have could flooding the better, functioned services been betterprepared.Hadthemeteorological have could country the that obvious is It with thecrisisandavoidedhumanlosses. cope to managed authorities the disposal, of irresponsibility.Giventhetimeattheir sign a as many by seen was which ended took aleavebeforetheperiodofflooding president the and premier the However, diseases. various against campaign vaccination a started Ministry Health Public the flooding, the after period the In looting. preventing operations, various in involved also was Police people. the to hand a lend to localities various to sent were soldiers 400 least At dams. the consolidate and rebuild to population the Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH

governmental unit dealing with natural losses in western Ukraine are estimated at

disasters; the sub-unit of the Ministry of approximately 650-870 millions USD. The August 2008 Internal Affairs is not sufficiently well- Ukrainian government called the flooding equipped and does not cover all the range of the worst the country has seen in years. On calamities. Another problematic area is the the other side of Prut, in Romania five people cooperation between the national authorities died, 10,520 evacuated and 8,941 houses and local authorities; the local authorities in damaged mainly in the Moldova region. Chisinau are simply ignored by the national government. Prognosis 5 Better coordination with the Ukrainian With the ongoing changes of the regional authorities might have led to fewer losses. climate, it is highly probable that during the

Even if the prime-vice premier Igor Dodon next years extreme weather conditions occur No. 8 (15) addressed on August 18 a gratitude again. Unless the countries in the region letter to the Ukrainian government “for learn how to cooperate in order to cope with timely notification of the Moldovan party, such challenges, we would witness the same understanding, support, close and fruitful situation in the near future. Setting up a cooperation during the catastrophic flood”, regional meteorological center to monitor previously president Voronin partly blamed the situation on Nistru and Prut would Ukraine for the late notification about the probably strengthen the cooperation in that release of water from the Novodnestrovsk field. It is essential for Moldova to build good Lake. relations with Romania and Ukraine, because both border rivers and are to some extent Still, compared with the situation in administered in common. Unilateral decisions Ukraine, the floods did not have such severe in those areas are highly risky and would not consequences. According to Ukraine’s be welcomed by the neighbor countries. It is Emergency Ministry, storms and floods last difficult to prove that the drought of last year month in six western regions of Ukraine and the flooding this year are consequences killed at least 36 people. Hundreds of towns of “global warming”, but it is certain that the and villages were flooded, 40,000 houses problem will be under discussion more often were damaged and thousands of residents in the media and public sphere in the region. were evacuated, officials said. The total No. 8 (15) 6 August 2008 STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL realpolitik. to pieces returning to the era of bipolarism and to bring the established international order down Soviet Union. Russian Federation, its heir, tries to regain the power lost after the collapse of the foundations by the rise of an old-new actor eager relations is being shaken deep down to its In a postmodern era the system of international Overview effect portraying a Russia who continued to argue did nothing to stop it. Verbal warnings had no condemned Russian aggression in Georgia, but humble, to say the few. Both the US and the EU The reaction of international community was forces fromGeorgia. calling for a full withdrawal of Russian military fire agreement was reached by EU mediation Russian troopsevennowwhenasixpointscease- Poti and military base in Senaki, all controlled by the town of Gori, military port to the Black Sea, of half Georgian territory, including key points as territory was attacked leading to an occupation Russian Federation retaliated as if Russian regime in Tshinval, the capital of South Osetia. continuous provocations from the unrecognized Georgian authorities to start military actions after under Russian control served as motive for facto independence since 1991 and de jure being a breakaway region of Georgia who enjoys de Russian citizens in South Osetia. South Osetia, hiding behind week excuses of protecting who started a full-fledged war against Georgia a brutal and unconceivable reaction from Russia, left by the defunct Soviet Union, have triggered two “frozen conflicts” on its territory, the legacy The events in Georgia, a sovereign state facing “Independent Moldova” Survive? Can Long How Russia: New ofa Rise The independence, which gives a new dangerous recognition of South Osetian and Abkhazian The apogees nevertheless, was the Russian Tbilisi. it was a righteous action and the blame belongs to GUAM building on a closer and privileged Communist rule abandoned the allies within Unfortunately, since 2005 Voronin and his European Union. Independent States and explicit will to join the to Russian policies in the Commonwealth of and Moldova, all united by a sense of opposition GUAM, featuring Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan got closer within a new regional organization, Moldovan foreign policy, Moldova and Georgia European integration as priority number one of down Kozak Memorandum and announced that: Russia. After 2003 when Voronin turned Both of them had a common actor to blame for movements on their newly established territories. after its disintegration they inherited separatist They have been parts of the Soviet Union and Moldova and Georgia have a lot in common. Lambs Moldova’s Non-reaction Equals to Silence of the process. situation in the Transnistrian conflict resolution formulated in order to avoid a worsening of the precautionary steps and a new strategy have to be has little chances to be repeated in Transnistria, by Moscow in Georgia. While such a scenario position towards Russia and the instruments used events, Moldova should deeply reconsider its conflicts in the post-Soviet space. Following these “perspective” over the resolution of frozen [email protected] by SergiuPanainte Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH

relation with Russia. Heavily betting on the However Moldova’s position is strikingly Russian support to find a solution to the

naïve and optimistic about its “independence” August 2008 Transnistrian conflict, Chisinau got blind to celebrated recently. Notwithstanding the regretful all the other matters in the post-Soviet space. events happening in the Caucasus, Moldova’s Now, with the Russian-Georgian war unfolded, authorities still believe Russia will act within Moldova remained silent. The only thing to do the provisions of the international law and was a communiqué of the Ministry of Foreign will respect Moldova’s territorial integrity, not Affairs and European Integration by which mentioning the fact it has military forces deployed Moldova aligned itself to the EU declaration on in Transnistria and no words were mentioned the matter. No other official declarations on behalf about this at the meeting in Sochi. 7 of the Presidency or Parliament have followed. Compared to Ukraine’s president Yushchenko Moreover, the quick visit of Romanian president who blamed Russian aggression, closed Ukrainian Basescu to Chisinau in the framework of his No. 8 (15) ports for the Russian fleet in the Black Sea and Black Sea tour to discuss the security matters in sent humanitarian aid to Georgia, Voronin was the aftermath of Russian aggression in Georgia having his vacation in Croatia. In his absence, no did not bring the expected results. The experts other official expressed any position towards the consider that Basescu acted on the suggestion of outrageous actions of Russia. Just recently, after EU and the US and had to rally support in order to the civil society and a group of experts expressed prevent future possible developments of Russia’s deep concerns about the developments taking actions in its neighborhood. Most probably place in the region, the Government shamefully Voronin was advised to think over his position released a declaration by which declares that the towards Russia and not to provoke the authorities conflict on Georgia will have no repercussions in Tiraspol. This comes after Smirnov regime for Moldova and the resolution of Transnistrian condemned Georgian actions in South Osetia problem. Even more, the Government considers and demanded that Chisinau does the same. there are good preconditions that will allow the Furthermore, Tiraspol interrupted any liaisons parties to successfully bring the matter to a quick with Chisinau until the authorities on the left bank end. will adopt a clear anti-Georgia position. Following these developments it is hardly conceivable how This conviction obviously stems from the visit both Russia and official Chisinau speak about Voronin paid to Sochi where he met with Russian the resolution process in such positive terms. president Medvedev. Apparently, Medvedev Moreover, after Kremlin recognized South Osetia warned Voronin not to repeat Georgian and Abkhazia independence, Tiraspol expects the “mistakes” and declared that a peaceful solution same treatment. Voices in the political circles on can be found if to respect the actual format of the right bank declared that same scenario will negotiations and the commitments Moldova develop in Tiraspol as well, no matter the official engaged to. Hence, one should think that Voronin position in Chisinau. pledged not to undertake any military action, which anyway would have been futile given It becomes more and more complicated since the superior armed forces Tiraspol has at its only the civil society got alarmed. The authorities disposal, but instead promised to stay quiet, continue to put their trust in Russia ignoring the follow Moscow’s indications and everyone voice of reason. Civil society limited in its actions will be happy. This however means a return to and with the opposition totally ignored too, Kozak plan rejected in 2003 by Voronin, if to cite the Communists will take full responsibility for Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, a situation everything which might happen. highly unacceptable to official Chisinau. President Voronin was speaking after the meeting with As in the past, Voronin favors to solve foreign Medvedev that Russia supports Moldovan policy issues directly with Russia and not to rely territorial integrity and will go in accordance on the West. Now it is high time to question once with the Moldovan Parliament’s law from 2005. again the military neutrality of Moldova, the In this context it is difficult to discern where the commitments taken towards European partners truth lies. Nevertheless, given the fact Russia feels as well as the allegiances to Moscow. Is Kremlin stronger than ever it will do the things its own closer and better than Brussels? way, either peacefully or militarily. No. 8 (15) 8 August 2008 STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL link Crimea to Transnistria as a bridge to the Federation. In this case Russia would prefer to Crimea asking to be included into the Russian One scenario would stand for an independent developments inTransnistria. to Georgia, could trigger even more dangerous into consideration by the West as a follow-up and a disintegration of Ukraine, which is taken passports. A possible intention to join Russia is of Russian nationality which holds Russian hosted. The majority of the Crimea population in the Black Sea for Russia where its fleet is structure of Crimea and its strategic importance in Georgia. The explanation is the demographic of Yushchenko administration to Russia’s actions the future of Ukraine, given the sharp reactions Transnistria. These scenarios are closely linked to discussed as well depicting different scenarios for As a side effect, the situation in Moldova was in all major newspapers all over the world. In the last weeks Georgia held the frontlines What ComesNext? they didin2003, Moldovamightbelost. case the situation degenerates in such a way, as conflict. If the EU and the US will not intervene in next year they can accept a quick solution to the not to be worried and ahead of the elections chances to materialize, since the authorities seem from Moscow. So far this scenario has the biggest Hence, Moldova will become a puppet state ruled submissive policy promoted by Communist party. already ongoing process as a consequence of the Transnistrization of the whole Moldova, an accept a federal solution. This will mean a in mind, Voronin will have to capitulate and policy based on force. With Georgia scenario Moldova a Kozak II plan given its rise and a Another scenario is that Russia will impose to and theUSshouldnotlethappen. is the most “fantastic” development which the EU by the West would be to unite with Romania. This case the solution for the rest of Moldova, favored Ukraine, eastern part leaning to Russia. In this claimant would be Poland to include all western with Ismail and Belgorod regions. Another and Hertsa region as well as Southern Bessarabia Romania to claim the northern part of Bucovina be submitted by other neighbors. One would be of Ukraine as a state, other territorial claims would Balkans as it always wanted. With disappearance responds tothenationalinterestsofstate. advocate the above mentioned scenario which for a change. A pro-Western government can electorate will punish the current party and vote till the elections, one can hope that Moldovan If Moldova resists any Russian solution at least impossible under the Communist government. integrity of Moldova. This third scenario is totally solution to the conflict and preserve territorial the US as mediators. Only this can bring a fair a party to the conflict and to include the EU and The negotiation format should exclude Russia as Transnistria and all the stockpiles of ammunition. unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from of UN. This should be followed by the total and observers deployed by the EU under the mandate contingent with a mission of military and civil would be the replacement of Russian peacekeeper The third scenario and the most desired one Union whomay follow. appetite has to be contained by the EU, as it is the its complete influence in the “near abroad”, this Russia is showing a huge appetite for restoring term gains before the electoral cycle. Now since national interestsofthestate andnotshort- party has to think first of all about the long-term the issue before the elections, the Communist settlement. Despite the huge desire to solve into Russia’s trap with regard to Transnistrian to keep the eyes wide open and not to step On its side, Moldova and its government have aiming todisciplineRussia. this event if the EU will not push for measures the situation in Georgia. Little can spring out of scheduled to be held on September 1 approaching giant. An emergency EU-Russia summit was members called for action against the eastern showed a conciliating attitude, the new EU get away with it. While Germany, Italy, France Russia with a free hand and the possibility to position of the EU and its internal division leaves in Nagorno-Karabakh. The somehow hesitant more precipitated in Transnistria and possibly by the Russian Federation, the things will get of South Osetia and Abkhazia independence Soviet space. With the unilateral recognition the wayfrozenconflictsaresolvedonpost- Russian aggression towards Georgia changed Prognosis Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH August 2008

by Vitalie Grosu [email protected]

The Uncertainty of the Republic

of Moldova’s Security Policy 9 in the Framework of the Regional Insecurity Increase No. 8 (15)

Summary the opposition parties and the civil society on the acute problems in the security field, the current The Russian military aggression towards Georgia authorities set up the conditions for a deep on August 8, 2008, represented a real aggression political crisis and contributed to the increase of towards the regional and international security social insecurity level. and its consequences are going to be felt for sure in the future. Being Georgia’s partner in a range Along with the new national security threats o regional organizations, Republic of Moldova’s generated by the unilateral actions of the authorities woke up in an unpleasant situation Russian Federation based on force, Republic of when, on one hand realizes the necessity to Moldova had to face the consequences of the support Georgia in promoting and defending its inundations that took place at the end of July and national interest, and on the other hand, by doing the beginning of August. The estimations made this, there was the danger of displeasing Russia. by the authorities show important economic In this way, the Chisinau authorities preferred losses that blocked a range of social initiatives to adopt a strategy of evasion regarding the in some key fields. In this way, because of the statement of its own position that represents an Government’s adopted strategy, some social inefficient way of promoting the national interest. layers remain in a state of increased social and economic insecurity, all this contributing to Although the recognition of Abkhazia and South the worsening of the relationship between the Ossetia by the Russian Federation on August 26, government and certain social strata. 2008 was pull out of the Russian and Georgian conflict contex,t it is an event that has direct The Threat to the Territorial Integrity or to the and indirect consequences on the Republic of Republic of Moldova’s Independence? Moldova’s national security. The manifest of these consequences is correlated to the country’s The unilateral recognition of the Abkhazia and territorial integrity issue and the current South Ossetia separatist regions’ independence negotiation process regarding transnistrian by the Russian Federation on August 26, 2008 conflict. is a real challenge to the national security and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, The resent meeting of the Republic of Moldova’s that deals with a similar conflict in the case of President an the President of the Russian Transnistria. The Soci meeting of the Russian Federation that took place in Soci on August Federation and of the Republic of Moldova 25, as well as the later divergent declarations Presidents on August 25, pointed out clearly show the security policy’s lack of transparency the intention of D. Medvedev to state that he promoted by the current authorities, but also the won’t abandon its interests in Transnistria, president’s monopoly on the right to decision but concomitantly the intention of taking over regarding issues of national importance in the the initiative in the current negotiation round security field. In the absence of a discussion with regarding transnistrian conflict. In this way, the No. 8 (15) 10 August 2008 STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL oriented totheaccomplishmentoftwoscripts, it seemsthattheRussianFederationstrategyis Taking intoconsiderationtheabovementioned of transnistrianconflictsettlement. of Moldova’sLawregardingthebasicprinciples and asareactionwasadoptedthe2005Republic authorities becauseoftheopposition’spressures minimum 20years.ThePlanwasrevisedbythe guarantee duringthetransitionperiodof Moldova’s territorywiththemissionofstability forces oftheRussianarmyonRepublic the planalsostipulatedrighttolocate to vetointhecountry’sforeignpolicy.Andmore, would havethestatuteofRepublicwithright Moldova inafederation,whichTransnistria 2003, stipulatesthetransformationofRepublic Plan proposedbytheRussianFederationin national interests.Let’srememberthattheKozak in thedetrimentofRepublicMoldova’s promoting theRussiangeopoliticalinterests of conflictsettlement,showstheintention the sidesavailabilitytoreviveKozakPlan of ForeignAffairsonAugust26,concerning statements oftheRussianFederationMinister Chisinau imposed bythesocalledMinister of remember the adjournofallrelations with something else.Inthissituation, weshould Tiraspol authorities’behavior demonstrated transnistrian conflictsettlement process;the that theeventinGeorgia won’taffectthe I spiteoftheMoldovan officials statements Russian officials. reaction ofapproveordisapproveontheside independence, factthatwasn’tprecededbyany the proximityoftransnistrianrecognition the discussionsaboutindependencestating separatist leaderI.Smirnovstartedalloveragain Moldovan andRussianPresidentsmeeting,the plenty ofpowertoact.Inthisway,afterthe Moscow authoritiesoffertheseparatistregime Transnistria’s independence.Forthispurpose, federalization, wouldbetherecognitionof in spitetheRussianpressurewon’taccept in casetheRepublicofMoldova’sauthorities, is veryrelevantinthiscase.Thesecondscript, Affairs startedagaintotalkabouttheKozakPlan that theRussianFederationMinisterofForeign guarantee alotofadvantagesforRussia.Thefact sphere ofinfluence,evolutionthatwould of Moldovaanditsre-entranceintheRussian it isassumedthefederalizationofRepublic that aregoingtobemadebyChisinauauthorities between ChisinauandTiraspol,theconcessions chances toobtainaconsensusforthemoment such conditions,itisclearthatevenifthereare a similarpositionasthetransnistrianregion.In between ChisinauandUTAGagauziathattook contributed totheworseningofrelations region. Thirdly,theRussianandGeorgianwar recognition ofindependenceforthetransnistrian of thetransnistrianregime,statedproximate the nextdayI.Smirnov,alongwithotherofficials good chancestosettlethetransnistrianconflict, Presidents inSociregardingtheperspectivesand Republic ofMoldovaandRussianFederation that contrarytotheoptimiststatementsof of Moldova.Secondly,wehavetomention this factbeingunacceptablefortheRepublic Tiraspol, theGeorgia’sactionsinSouthOssetia, authorities won’tdenounce,accordingto Foreign AffairsfromTiraspoluntilChisinau and threatsthat emergeafterRussia’s unilateral civil society, onAugust26,concerning therisks of experts,representatives oftheMoldovan The worriesthatweremade publicbyagroup the Moldovansociety’sinsecurity. authorities, factthatcontributes totheincreaseof the legislativestipulationsbycommunist undemocratic procedureandtheignoranceof Security Council.Suchasituationrevealsthe field ofnationalsecurityasthattheNational neglected theroleofatopinstitutionin in spitethelegislation,duringcriseswas importance inthefieldofnationalsecurity.So, decision takingmechanismonissuesofmajor monopolized bythePresidentV.Voronin,of authorities expressedthepersonalizednature, security system.Theactionsundertakenbythe uncertainty andnon-functioningofthenational authorities anddenotesageneralstateof security policypromotedbythecommunist existence ofimportantlacksinthenational Georgia onAugust8,2008,pointedoutthe military attackoftheRussianFederationon The reactionoftheChisinauauthoritiesto Expectations The SecurityPolicybetweenUncertaintyand Russian policy. with RepublicofMoldova’scapitulationtothe should increasealotandcouldbeequalized on thecurrentregionalevolutionsbackground Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH

actions in Georgia and its recognition of policy of the Moldovan authorities regarding

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in contradiction security field. So, we should mention that August 2008 with the official position of Chisinau authorities Chisinau authorities adopted with delay the according to which there is no reason to statement that disapproves the act of separatist worry about the transnistrian problem. Such a regime’s independence recognition by the situation denotes the lack of dialogue between Russian Federation. Secondly, such a declaration state authorities and civil society, which is was adopted y the Government, and not by in contradiction with the stipulations of the the President, a different situation comparing recent adopted National Security Conception to Kosovo case. Thirdly, after the Russian regarding the state’s commitment to develop a Federation’s example, Chisinau authorities 11 dialogue with the civil society. In this way, the make references to the Helsinki Final Act and promotion of a non-transparent security policy in UN Charter, which have certain ambiguities the security field which is not oriented to social concerning this issue. In this way, the promotion No. 8 (15) consensus on issues of major importance sets up of an uncertain policy and expectancies on issues conditions for deep political crises and increases of major importance for the Republic of Moldova the society’s general insecurity. contributes to the increase of the Moldovan society’s insecurity. The Republic of Moldova’s adherence to the Declaration of the French EU Presidency Insecurity Increased by Inundations concerning the worsening of the situation in South Ossetia represented an action that The inundations during July and the beginning expresses the uncertainty of the policy promoted of August caused important damages to the by the current state authorities, when on one national economy. According to the estimations hand the communist authorities were obliged to made by the working groups set up by the adopt a position towards the conflict, and on the government of the Republic of Moldova, the other avoided to show clearly their own position. inundations made damages over 120 mln. USD. Such a strategy, according to some experts, is So, 20% represent infrastructure damages, 15 determined by the political interests that have % are agricultural loses and 65% are building the purpose to annoy the pro Russian poll. damages. Nevertheless, undermining the national interest to the party’s interest is unacceptable and also As a result of the inundation at the end of July, dangerous for the national security. as was expected, worsened the epidemiological situation of the country. In this way, the The Soci meeting on August 25, of the Republic Ministry of Heath announced an increased of Moldova and Russian Federation Presidents risk for the population’s health and asked for showed the complexity of Republic of Moldova’s the organization of preventive measures in position. Thus, the development of the meeting the field by the central and local authorities, during the voting of Abkhazia and South fact that requires additional expenses from the Ossetia’s independence by the Russian State Government’s part. Duma had a warning nature for the Chisinau authorities. Coming back to the discussions The unexpected expenses caused by the related to the Kozak Plan as a result of the Soci inundations determined the blocking of the meeting points out the Republic of Moldova’s discussions between the Government and the federalization threat. In this way, the existence trade-unions in the educational field concerning of Chisinau authorities’ confutation regarding the teachers wage increase, as well as a range the Russian minister’s statements indicates non- of other social initiatives. According to some transparency and uncertainty of the Chisinau analytical centers the situation in the educational promoted policy. sphere is disastrous and requires immediate serious investments. The educational system The adoption by the Chisinau authorities analysis presented by the Ministry of Education of the state’s position concerning Russia’s and Youth represents a sad picture and asserts recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s the deep deficit of personnel. The refuse of the independence fits perfectly in the uncertain government to answer positive to the union- policy, as well as on some issues interest of special for Moldova. provide analysis on various elements of domestic and foreign POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH &SECURITY POLITICAL In order to todistribution the subscribe list of Political and No. 7 (14) 12 August 2008 Political Statewatch and Security authors: Ion Marandici, The Bulletin is a The monthlyBulletin bilingual publication aiming to Security StatewatchSecurity contact please bulletin, us by e-mail: Coordination and distribution of Ghenadie bulletin: the Chisinau, 10/1,Iacob Hincu Str., 2009MD, Republic of dissatisfaction inthecooperationrelationswith costumers rightsandwelfare,regardinghis Federal ServiceforsupervisingtheRussia’s The statementGh.Oniscenco’s,Chiefofthe Moldova usingeconomicandpoliticalblackmail. to increaseitseffortfederalizeRepublicof is expectedthattheRussianFederationgoing settling thetransnistrianconflictiseloquent.It statement regardingrevivingKozakPlanof framework aswell.Inthisway,theRussian western conflicts,andinthetransnistrianconflict contribute tothedeepeningofRussianand of theunilateralactionsRussiainGeorgiawill Federation andthewesterncountries,asaresult The worseningoftherelationsbetweenRussian Forecasts of theMoldovansociety. layer, thuscontributingtothepoliticalinstability current governmentandtheintellectualsocial education, aswelloftherelationbetween in oneofthefieldsmajorsocialimportanceas contributes tothedestabilizationofsituation trades requiresisnotacorrectchoiceand is eloquent.TheRussianauthorities’position the Moldovansideonexportofwineissue Tel/fax: (+373/22)210932;21.36.32; 22.71.30 [email protected]. Sergiu Panainte, Vitalie Grosu. E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.viitorul.or Contacts: Moldova Mocanu. g areas of public interest, creating and disseminating of the best practices, good governance governance good practices, and economic analysis. best the of disseminating and creating various interest, for public of areas recommendations and analysis policy generating and environments, academic the between policy-making linkages several forged has IDSI mission, initiatives. this and with projects Consistent future their regarding them advices and moral support logistic, its intellectual and providing virtues, and values energies, their with helps IDSI contribute society. to open them the and market free the towards transition concerned of are who models the with intellectuals young together brings that platform common a also is IDSI strive to and information for mutualgoalsandinfluence government. exchange to interests, own their the express to which in together society act civil citizens the of expansion the assist to governments; the of regional and strengthening local the to contribute to democracies; emerging other in and Moldova The IDSI’s missionisto contribute to thegrowth environment ofindependent thinking in non-political entity. organization, not-for-profit non-governmental, a in as up set Moldova was in It 1993 June science. organizational and strategic sciences, analysis, political law, economic of field governance, the in activates which organization outreach and education The Institute for Development Initiatives andSocial (IDSI) “Viitorul” www.viitorul.org framework ofnon-transparentsecurityand transnistrian conflict.Nevertheless,inthe the imageofefficientdiscussionsregarding communist authoritieswillcontinuetocreate Because ofelectoralreasons,theChisinau’s for Chisinau,orientedtoblockthediscussions. for substantialconcessionsevenunacceptable in Georgia,thesecessionistauthoritieswillask elections andthesuccessofseparatistregions seems thatintheframeworkoffuture2009 affected bytherecenteventinCaucuses.It settlement ofthetransnistrianconflictwillbe president Voronin,theevolutionsregarding In spiteoftheoptimiststatements Republic ofMoldovainthesphereitsinterests. intention oftheRussianFederationtoput and Tiraspolauthoritiesdenotestheclear worsening ofthedialoguebetweenChisinau to revivetheKozakPlanwillcontribute communist authorities. the relationbetweenoppositionand in thecountrygeneratedbyworseningof is expectedanincreaseofpoliticalinstability interests withtheconflictsettlementprojectsit as theRussianattempttoconnectitsgeopolitical transnistrian conflictsettlementpolicy,aswell is a research, research, a is