Beyond Frozen Conflict Beyond Frozen Conflict Scenarios for the Separatist Disputes of Eastern Europe Thomas de Waal Nikolaus von Twickel Edited by Michael Emerson CEPS, Brussels Rowman & Littlefield International, London CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies) is an independent and non- partisan think tank based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound policy research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe. This book has been part of a project on the EU’s Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine supported by Sweden through the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida). The views expressed herein are those of the authors alone. Cover art work by Constantin Sunnerberg ([email protected]) Published by Rowman & Littlefield International, Ltd. 6 Tinworth Street, London, SE11 5AL www.rowmaninternational.com Rowman & Littlefield International Ltd. is an affiliate of Rowman & Littlefield, 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706, USA With additional offices in Boulder, New York, Toronto (Canada) and Plymouth (UK) www.rowman.com Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Place du Congrès 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.ceps.eu Copyright © 2020 CEPS The editors and authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the editor and/or author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-1-5381-4416-9 Hardback 978-1-5381-4417-6 Paperback 978-1-5381-4418-3 eBook “For almost 30 years, Europe has been struggling to handle several territorial or separatist conflicts in its Eastern neighbourhood: Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorny Karabakh, and Transdniestria. In the meantime, similar conflicts have also erupted over Crimea and Donbas. There are different mixes of geopolitics and local conflict in all these arenas. The affected countries have largely adjusted to an abnormal situation, but the conflicts still pose considerable dangers, and in Ukraine the war is still active. Russia is directly involved in almost all conflicts, and has a less overt role in Nagorny Karabakh. Russia’s role in the conflicts in Ukraine overshadow its relations with the European Union. While the European Union has developed a strong relationship with all countries of the Eastern neighbourhood, its approach to the conflicts has sometimes been hesitant. “In this thorough and excellent study, the Thomas De Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel trace the development of the conflicts in order to make predictions for their further course together with policy recommendations for the European Union. The status quo continues to be the likeliest scenario, but it is a dangerous one and demands that the European Union use its political and economic leverage to engage and transform the conflicts.” Peter Semneby, Former EU Special Representative for South Caucasus “This book provides a compelling and comprehensive account of the fluid conflicts and frozen peace processes in Eastern Europe. A must read for all those who wish to understand the region and prevent the Donbass from falling into the same ‘frozen’ trap which Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorny Karabakh and Transdnistria have succumbed to.” Natalie Tocci, Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome “This volume is the indispensable source for information and analysis on the conflicts and separatist entities on the post-Soviet periphery in Ukraine, Moldova, and the Caucasus. Co-authors Nikolaus von Twickel and Thomas De Waal bring on the ground experience, a journalist’s keen eye, and scholarly insight to this lucid, penetrating and comprehensive survey of the region. Whether you are a seasoned expert or unfamiliar with the region, for both historical understanding and policy insight, this is a must read.” William Hill, Global Fellow, Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “Protracted conflicts permeate people’s collective identities, impact their views of the past and the future and define their present. They are difficult to resolve in the sense of the elimination of the root causes precisely because conflict sides regard the causes and solutions in diametrically opposite ways. Thinking scenarios is a useful exercise that helps look beyond the ‘right’ course of action and stimulates critical (re)assessment of one’s own position. This book invites the reader to embrace the complexity of the conflicts in the post-Soviet space and disentangle geopolitical manoeuvers from collective grievances.” Natalia Mirimanova, Founder and Director of the Eurasia Peace Initiative “The negotiations over the secessionist conflicts in the eastern European borderlands may be at a standstill, but the conflict parties continue to make crucial choices to advance their interests. This book examines the options available to them and their consequences for the transformation of the conflicts. One of the book’s key achievements is to offer an in-depth analysis of the range of potential future scenarios.” Professor Bruno Coppieters, Free University of Brussels “Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel’s study is an honest, brave, comprehensive and timely analysis of the possible ways of mitigation of the geopolitical risks connected with five post-Soviet ‘frozen’ conflicts. As a Ukranian I completely support their conclusions that evolutionary status-quo is the most likely scenario for Donbas’ future settlement and that the EU should stand for a lifting of Kyiv’s trade blockade of the non-government-controlled areas and should assist Ukraine in a project of national dialogue and reconciliation with the traditionally Russian-speaking regions of the country.” H. E. Oleksandr Chalyi, former First Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine CONTENTS Preface 1 1. Introduction and Recommendations Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 3 1.1 Scenarios 4 1.2 Thinking in the long term 7 1.3 Policy recommendations 9 Policy recommendations for the European Union: regarding Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 11 2. Scenarios for the future of eastern Europe’s unresolved conflicts Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 15 2.1 Introduction – the Ukraine effect 15 2.2 Overarching conditions 17 2.2.1 Frozen diplomacy? 17 2.2.2 Russia 18 2.2.3 Stronger nations 24 2.2.4 European Union 25 2.2.5 Potential for incremental change 28 2.3 Scenarios 30 2.3.1 Donbas scenarios 30 2.3.2 Transdniestria scenarios 38 2.3.3 Abkhazia scenarios 41 2.3.4 South Ossetia scenarios 44 2.3.5 Nagorny Karabakh scenarios 47 2.4 Conclusions 51 3. The State of the Donbas: A study of eastern Ukraine’s separatist-held areas Nikolaus von Twickel 55 3.1 Introduction 56 3.2 Politics 58 3.2.1 The People’s Republics’ creation 58 3.2.2 Operation Girkin 60 3.2.3 Russification and de-russification 62 3.2.4 Agents rather than actors 64 VII 3.2.5 Parties and parliaments 66 3.2.6 Large bureaucracies with little control 67 3.2.7 Leadership changes – the Luhansk putsch 70 3.2.8 The killing of Alexander Zakharchenko 72 3.2.9 External Relations 75 3.2.10 Relations with Russia 75 3.2.11 Relations with the rest of Ukraine 77 3.3 Economy 78 3.3.1 Decline set in long before 2014 78 3.3.2 The trade blockade of 2017 82 3.3.3 The coal industry 86 3.3.4 Brain drain – demographic catastrophe? 89 3.3.5 Is Moscow subsidising a black hole? 92 3.3.6 Low wages and humble pensions 95 3.3.7 The rise of Vneshtorgservis and Serhiy Kurchenko 96 3.3.8 Return of the oligarchs? 100 3.3.9 The Luhansk ‘People’s Republic’ – a different case? 102 3.4 Society 103 3.4.1 No ethnic conflict 103 3.4.2 Social cohesion 105 3.4.3 How popular are the ‘People’s Republics’? 106 3.4.4 The Media 108 3.4.5 Human rights: The MGBs and dissent 111 3.4.6 International isolation 112 3.5 Security 114 3.5.1 The armed formations’ formation 117 3.5.2 Asymmetric mutual deterrence 119 3.5.3 The fighting along the Contact Line 121 3.5.4 Disengagement 123 3.5.5 International Presence: The OSCE Mission 124 3.5.6 Prospects for a peacekeeping mission 125 3.5.7 Limits for a peacekeeping mission 128 3.6 Outlook 130 VIII 4. Transdniestria Today Thomas de Waal 135 4.1 Introduction 136 4.2 Background 139 4.3 Negotiations – one step forward one step back 142 4.4 Politics and society in Transdniestria 146 4.5 The economy 149 4.6 The grey zone 153 5. Abkhazia Today Thomas de Waal 159 5.1 Introduction 160 5.2 Deadlocked negotiations 163 5.3 Domestic politics and Russian influence 164 5.4 Economy and society 169 5.5 Inguri power division 176 5.6 Tbilisi’s policy 178 5.7 The international outlook 181 6. South Ossetia Today Thomas de Waal 187 6.1 Introduction 188 6.2 Background 190 6.3 Political life 193 6.4 Security and borderisation 196 6.5 Economy and society 198 6.6 Links with Georgia 201 7. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth Decade Thomas de Waal 205 7.1 Introduction 206 7.2 Faltering negotiations 210 7.3 Militarisation 214 7.4 International context 217 7.5 Challenges for 2020 223 7.6 Conclusions: What potential for incremental change? 225 About the authors 228 IX PREFACE This book forms part of a wider project on the relations between the European Union and Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and in particular the Association Agreements and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) between these three states and the European Union. The wider project was begun in 2015 in the aftermath of the Maidan uprising at the beginning of 2014, which had been provoked when President Yanukovich reneged over the signing of Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU.