Central(Asia,Caucasus( Analyst( ! BI$WEEKLY!BRIEFING! VOL.!16!NO.!06! ! ! 19!MARCH!2014! ! Contents!! ! Analytical!Articles! ! CRIMEA!IS!NOT!A!PAWN!ON!THE!UKRAINE!CHESS!BOARD!>!RUSSIA!IS!THERE!TO! STAY! ! !!!!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!!!3!! Avinoam!Idan! ! THE!CRIMEAN!CRISIS!AND!GEORGIA'S!BREAKAWAY!TERRITORIES! !! !!!!6! Valeriy!Dzutsev! ! RUSSIA'S!INTERVENTION!IN!UKRAINE!REVERBERATES!IN!CENTRAL!ASIA! !!!!9! Slavomír!Horák! ! THE!COST!OF!BLACK!TUESDAY!FOR!KAZAKHSTAN! ! ! ! !!!13! Birgit!Brauer! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Field!Reports! ! BISHKEK'S!FIRST!OFFICIAL!STATEMENT!ON!UKRAINE!!!! ! ! ! !!!16! Arslan!Sabyrbekov! ! GEORGIAN!PARLIAMENT!AMENDS!ELECTION!CODE!AHEAD!OF!SPRING!LOCAL! ELECTIONS! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!!! !!!18! Eka!Janashia! ! TURKMENISTAN!INTRODUCES!NEW!MEASURES!TO!CONSERVE!NATURAL!GAS!!20! Tavus!Rejepova! ! FEMINIST!ACTIVISTS!ATTACKED!IN!OSH,!KYRGYZSTAN! ! ! ! !!22! Ebi!Spahiu!! THE(CENTRAL(ASIA,CAUCASS(ANALYST! ( ( Editor:(Svante(E.(Cornell( ( Associate(Editor:(Niklas(Nilsson( ( Assistant(Editor,(News(Digest:(Alima(Bissenova( ( Chairman,(Editorial(Board:(S.(Frederick(Starr( ! The!Central!Asia.Caucasus!Analyst(is(an(English,language(journal(devoted(to(analysis(of(the(current(issues(facing( Central(Asia(and(the(Caucasus.(It(serves(to(link(the(business,(governmental,(journalistic(and(scholarly(communities( and(is(the(global(voice(of(the(Central(Asia,Caucasus(Institute(&(Silk(Road(Studies(Program(Joint(Center.(The(Editor( of(the(Analyst(solicits(most(articles(and(field(reports,(however(authors(are(encouraged(to(suggest(topics(for(future( issues(or(submit(articles(and(field(reports(for(consideration.(Such(articles(and(field(reports(cannot(have(been( previously(published(in(any(form,(must(be(written(in(English,(and(must(correspond(precisely(to(the(format(and( style(of(articles(and(field(reports(published(in(The(Analyst,(described(below.(( The(Analyst(aims(to(provide(our(industrious(and(engaged(audience(with(a(singular(and(reliable(assessment(of( events(and(trends(in(the(region(written(in(an(analytical(tone(rather(than(a(polemical(one.(Analyst(articles(reflect( the(fact(that(we(have(a(diverse(international(audience.(While(this(should(not(affect(what(authors(write(about(or( their(conclusions,(this(does(affect(the(tone(of(articles.(Analyst(articles(focus(on(a(newsworthy(topic,(engage(central( issues(of(the(latest(breaking(news(from(the(region(and(are(backed(by(solid(evidence.(Articles(should(normally(be( based(on(local(language(news(sources.(Each(1,100,1,500(word(analytical(article(must(provide(relevant,(precise(and( authoritative(background(information.(It(also(must(offer(a(sober(and(analytical(judgment(of(the(issue(as(well(as(a( clinical(evaluation(of(the(importance(of(the(event.(Authors(must(cite(facts(of(controversial(nature(to(the(Editor(who( may(contact(other(experts(to(confirm(claims.(Since(Analyst!articles(are(based(on(solid(evidence,(rather(than( rumors(or(conjecture,(they(prove(to(be(reliable(sources(of(information(on(the(region.(By(offering(balanced(and( objective(analysis(while(keeping(clear(of(inflammatory(rhetoric,(The(Analyst(does(more(to(inform(our(international( readership(on(all(sides(of(the(issues.( The(Editor(reserves(the(right(to(edit(the(article(to(conform(to(the(editorial(policy(and(specifications(of(The(Analyst( and(to(reject(the(article(should(it(not(be(acceptable(to(our(editorial(committee(for(publication.(On(acceptance(and( publication(of(the(edited(version(of(the(article,(The(Central(Asia,Caucasus(Institute(of(The(Johns(Hopkins( University,The(Nitze(School(of(Advanced(International(Studies(will(issue(an(honorarium(to(the(author.(It(is(up(to( the(individual(author(to(provide(the(correct(paperwork(to(the(Institute(that(makes(the(issuing(of(an(honorarium( possible.(The(copyright(for(the(article(or(field(report(will(reside(with(the(Central(Asia,Caucasus(Analyst.(However,( the(author(may(use(all(or(part(of(the(contracted(article(in(any(book(or(article(in(any(media(subsequently(written(by( the(author,(provided(that(a(copyright(notice(appears(giving(reference(to(the(contracted(article’s(first(publication(by( the("Central(Asia,Caucasus(Analyst,(Central(Asia,Caucasus(Institute,(The(Johns(Hopkins(University,(Nitze(School(of( Advanced(International(Studies."( ( Submission(Guidelines:( Analytical(Articles((require(a(three(to(four(sentence(Key(Issue(introduction(to(the(article(based(on(a(news(hook.( Rather(than(a(general,(overarching(analysis,(the(article(must(offer(considered(and(careful(judgment(supported( with(concrete(examples.(The(ideal(length(of(analytical(articles(is(between(1,100(and(1,500(words.(The(articles(are( structured(as(follows:( KEY(ISSUE:(A(short(75,word(statement(of(your(conclusions(about(the(issue(or(news(event(on(which(the(article( focuses.( BACKGROUND:(300,450(words(of(analysis(about(what(has(led(up(to(the(event(or(issue(and(why(this(issue(is(critical( to(the(region.(Include(background(information(about(the(views(and(experiences(of(the(local(population.( IMPLICATIONS:(300,450(words(of(analysis(of(the(ramifications(of(this(event(or(issue,(including(where(applicable,( implications(for(the(local(people’s(future.( CONCLUSIONS:(100,200(words(that(strongly(state(your(conclusions(about(the(impact(of(the(event(or(issue.( ( Field(Reports(focus(on(a(particular(news(event(and(what(local(people(think(about(the(event.(Field(Reports( address(the(implications(the(event(or(activity(analyzed(for(peoples’(lives(and(their(communities.(Field(Reports(do( not(have(the(rigid(structure(of(Analytical(Articles,(and(are(shorter(in(length,(averaging(ca.(700,800(words.( ( Those(interested(in(joining(The(Analyst’s(pool(of(authors(to(contribute(articles,(field(reports,(or(contacts(of( potential(writers,(please(send(your(CV(to:((and(suggest(some(topics(on(which(you(would(like( to(write.( ( Svante(E.(Cornell( Research(Director;(Editor,(Central(Asia,Caucasus(Analyst( Central(Asia,Caucasus(Institute(&(Silk(Road(Studies(Program( Paul(H.(Nitze(School(of(Advanced(International(Studies,(The(Johns(Hopkins(University( 1619(Massachusetts(Ave.(N.W.,(Washington,(D.C.(20036,(USA.( Tel.(+1,202,663,5922;(1,202,663,7723;((Fax.(+1,202,663,7785( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 3! ( CRIMEA(IS(NOT(A(PAWN(ON(THE( UKRAINE(CHESS(BOARD(,(RUSSIA(IS( THERE(TO(STAY(( Avinoam!Idan! ! Russia’s!move!to!gain!control!over!the!Crimean!Peninsula!deviates!from!the! context!of!the!crisis!in!Kiev.!Gaining!control!over!Crimea!is!not!a!tactic!in! President!Putin’s!hands!vis.à.vis!the!competition!over!Ukraine's!future.! Crimea!is!not!a!pawn!on!the!Ukrainian!chess.board!in!the!rivalry!between! Putin!and!Obama.!The!Crimean!Peninsula!is!the!“queen”!in!the!chess!game! Putin!is!playing;!it!is!aimed!at!nothing!less!than!improving!Russia’s!position!in! the!entire!Black!Sea!region,!as!well!as!in!the!area!referred!to!as!the! Mediterranean!Basin.( ( BACKGROUND:( The( onset( of( the( In( February( 2014,( a( compromise( moves(that(brought(about(the(crisis(in( between( the( government( and( the( the( Ukraine( can( be( traced( to( the( EU’s( opposition( seemed( imminent,( initiative( to( build( closer( ties( with( the( brokered(by(representatives(of(Russia( Ukraine,( through( its( inclusion( in( an( and( the( EU( countries,( a( compromise( Association( Agreement.( Before( the( that( broke( down( as( a( result( of( a( Ukrainian(president’s(abandonment(of( radicalization( in( opposition( activity( this(plan,(the(ratification(of(this(treaty( and( the( resulting( response( from( the( was(to(take(place(at(an(EU(summit(in( government.( At( least( 80( people( were( Vilnius,( which( was( to( be( held( in( killed,( many( more( wounded.( November( 2013.( Intense( pressure( Yanukovych( left( Kiev( shortly( from(Moscow,(together(with(a(Russian( thereafter.( After( Yanukovych’s( readiness( to( provide( vital( removal,( an( interim( government( was( comprehensive( assistance( to( Ukraine,( established( in( Kiev( until( general( whose(economic(situation(is(extremely( elections( could( be( held( on( May( 25,( critical,( is( said( to( have( brought( about( 2014.(( Yanukovych’s( change( of( heart.( This( President(Putin’s(first(reaction(to(what( decision(led(to(a(demonstration(in(Kiev( he( saw( as( the( unlawful( ousting( of( a( on( November( 13,( 1013,( wherein( legitimate( president( through( by( the( thousands(of(people(took(to(the(streets( illegitimate( means( of( public( to( demonstrate( against( this( step( and( demonstrations(was(to(cancel(Russia’s( against( the( Russian( pressure( that( huge(financial(commitment(to(Ukraine,( brought( it( about,( demanding( a( return( as(well(as(the(intention(to(cut(Russian( to( the( policy( of( entering( into( an( gas( prices.( Putin( then( declared( his( agreement( with( the( EU.( The( center( of( intention( to( ensure( the( safety( of( opposition( in( central( Kiev( turned( into( Ukraine's( Russian,speaking( mass(demonstrations.(( population,( in( addition( to( simplifying( the(process(of(Russian(passport( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 4! ( Russia’s( seizure( of( the( Crimean( Peninsula(should(not(be(understood(as( a( reaction( to( the( Ukrainian( crisis,( but( as( an( exploitation( of( it.( President( Putin’s( move( in( Crimea( is( intended( to( exploit( the( crisis( in( Kiev,( which( presents( an( opportunity( for( Russia( to( achieve( its( wider( goals,( relating( to( its( geo,strategic( status( in( the( Black( Sea( ( region( and( the( Mediterranean( Basin.( Crimea’s( strategic( importance( to( applications( for( those( among( that( Russia( should( not( be( underestimated.( same( population( who( want( to( apply.( Control( of( Crimea( will( bestow( upon( Russia's( intervention( in( the( Crimean( Russia(the(status(it(desires(in(the(Black( Peninsula( began( in( the( end( of( Sea( region,( unattainable( in( its( current( February,( at( first( through( local( situation( of( leasing( naval( bases( from( representatives( of( the( pro,Russian( Ukraine(for(a(specified(period(of(time.( section( of( the( population( and( Moreover,( control( of( the( Crimean( unidentified( armed( civilians,( soon( Peninsula( will( significantly( contribute( followed( by( a( Russian( army( invasion.( to(Russia’s(hold(on(the(Mediterranean( Russia( has( been( in( control( of( the( Basin( and( will( help( it( to( fly( its( flag( in( Crimean(peninsula(since(the(beginning( that(vital(maritime(region.(( of( March.( The( results( of( the( Crimean( referendum( on( becoming( part( of( As( a( result( of( the( dissolution( of( the( Russia,( which( was( held( on( March( 16,( Soviet( Union,( Russia( lost( most( of( its( reflects( the( dynamics( created( by( the( previous( access( points( to( the( Black( Russian( invasion( of( the( region,( and( Sea.( Most( of( the( coastline( was( then( intensifies( the( tension( between( within( the( sovereign( territory( of( two( Presidents(Putin(and(Obama.( newly( independent( countries,( Ukraine( and( Georgia.( This( is( a( constraint( to( IMPLICATIONS:( The( disregard( for( which( Russia( is( still( struggling( to( Russia’s( particular( interest( in( Ukraine( adapt,( since( it( has( always( been( a( displayed(by(the(U.S.(and(EU,(as(well(as( country( with( limited( access( to( the( their( encouragement( of( Ukraine's( open( seas,( most( of( all( due( to( climatic( economic(integration(with(the(EU(and( factors.( President( Putin( has( already( their( support( for( a( change( of( proven(his(abilities(to(exploit(crises(in( government( resulting( from( mass( order( to( further( his( broader( strategic( demonstrations( and( public( protests,( goals;( for( example,( in( the( Russian, was( bound( to( result( in( Russian( Georgian( war( in( 2008.( As( a( result( of( countermeasures.( ( Therefore,( there( that( war( –( which( began( in( South( should( have( been( no( surprise( in( Ossetia( –( Russia( de( facto( made( Washington(or(in(Brussels(at(Moscow’s( Abkhazia( a( protectorate,( hence( response.( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 5! ( obtaining(control(over(another(coastal( Russia( is( in( the( Crimean( Peninsula( to( region(on(the(Black(Sea.(( stay.( Crimea( is( not( a( subject( for( The( Ukrainian( crisis( has( created( dialogue,( as( far( as( Putin( is( concerned,( another( golden( opportunity.( Putin( and(the(discussion(between(the(foreign( knows( how( to( take( advantage( of( this( players(involved(in(resolving(the(crisis,( crisis(and(Russia’s(moves(in(Crimea(are( in( his( opinion,( should( start( from( that( not(aimed(at(achieving(an(advantage(in( point.( Additional( threats( remain( a( the( ongoing( political( dialogue( with( possibility,( as( well( as( further( steps( Obama.(Russian(control(over(Crimea(is( taken(by(Russia(into(Eastern(Ukraine.( a(goal(in(and(of(itself.(The(amendment( CONCLUSIONS:( Ukraine( is( a( central( of( Khrushchev’s( 1954( decision( to( issue( in( Russia’s( perception( of( its( transfer( the( peninsula( to( Ukraine,( national( security.( Russia’s( which( seemed( politically( insignificant( geographical( characteristics( make( at(the(time,(and(returning(it(to(Russia,( Ukraine(vital(and(Russia(considers(the( has( been( Russia’s( goal( for( years.( country( to( be( of( strategic( importance( However,( the( strategic( advantages( of( on(the(highest(level.(In(this(light,(there( controlling( the( Crimean( Peninsula( are( is( nothing( surprising( about( Russia's( the(key(factor(behind(Russia’s(move(in( reaction( to( the( EU's( initiative( to( offer( the( opportune( circumstances( created( Ukraine( a( Deep( and( Comprehensive( by(the(crisis(in(Kiev.(( Free( Trade( Agreement.( But( Russia's( From( the( Russian( standpoint,( involvement( in( Crimea( complicates( experiences( from( the( war( in( the( matters( and( severing( Crimea( from( Caucasus(in(2008(are(still(valid(and(are( Ukraine( is( a( separate( issue.( It( is( not( part( of( the( calculation( in( Putin’s( primarily( a( Russian( move( to( maintain( decision,making( processes( in( the( its(influence(in(Ukraine;(even(if(Crimea( current( crisis.( Importantly,( the( 2008( would( preserve( its( seemingly( war( demonstrated( the( unwillingness( independent(status,(and(is(not(formally( and( inability( of( both( the( U.S.( and( the( annexed( to( Russia,( Russia( will( EU( to( block( a( Russian( military( move( maintain(its(influence(in(the(peninsula.( toward( advancing( its( position( in( an( Instead,( Russia( will( threaten( to( take( area( that( Russia( regards( as( within( its( further( military( steps( in( Ukraine,( and( sphere(of(influence.(As(long(as(the(U.S.( may(even(do(so,(in(order(to(strengthen( is( still( involved( in( Afghanistan( and( in( its( position( in( future( discussions( on( Iran,(and(in(light(of(president’s(Obama( the(future(of(this(country.(( decisions( regarding( Syria,( there( is( a( AUTHOR'S(BIO:(Dr.(Avinoam(Idan(is( window( of( opportunity( that( allows( a( political( geographer( and( a( Senior( Russia(to(exploit(opportunities(such(as( Fellow(with(the(Central(Asia,(Caucasus( those( presenting( themselves( in( the( Institute,( based( in( Washington( DC.( Ukrainian(crisis.( Prior(to(his(academic(career,(he(served( It( is( important( to( future( international( in( the( Israeli( Embassy( in( Moscow( dialogue(on(Ukraine's(future(that(both( during( the( break,up( of( the( Soviet( the( U.S.( and( the( EU( understand( that( Union.(( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 6! ( THE(CRIMEAN(CRISIS(AND(GEORGIA'S( BREAKAWAY(TERRITORIES(( Valeriy!Dzutsev! ! Russia’s!support!for!the!secession!of!Ukrainian!Crimea!is!likely!to!affect! Abkhazia!and!South!Ossetia,!which!Russia!unilaterally!recognized!after!the! brief!Russian.Georgian!war!of!2008.!Following!the!open!confrontation!with! the!West!over!Ukraine's!territorial!integrity,!Moscow!is!now!ramping!up!its! control!over!Georgia's!breakaway!territories.!Russia's!entrenchment!in! Abkhazia!and!South!Ossetia!is!linked!to!the!Russian!government's!general! sense!of!entitlement!to!the!post.Soviet!space!and!the!perceived!threat!of! retreating!from!it.!While!there!are!many!parallels!between!how!the!situation! in!Crimea!evolves!and!that!in!the!South!Caucasian!semi.recognized!territories,! there!are!also!some!important!differences.( ( BACKGROUND:( On( March( 16,( the( Moscow( hastily( recognized( Abkhazia( referendum( on( Crimea’s( secession( and( South( Ossetia( as( independent( from( Ukraine( and( its( accession( to( the( states(in(August(2008(after(a(brief(war( Russian(Federation(proceeded(despite( with( Georgia,( despite( protests( from( strong( warnings( from( Ukraine( and( Tbilisi( and( Western( countries.( Since( Western( countries.( Moscow( denied( then,(both(territories(have(developed(a( that( it( exercised( any( pressure( on( the( complex(relationship(with(their(mighty( residents( of( the( peninsula( that( are( Russian( patron,( which( will( likely( be( predominantly( ethnic( Russians.( considerably(affected(by(the(events(in( However,(it(is(common(knowledge(that( Ukraine.( After( a( brief( period( of( the( Russian( government( orchestrated( debarment( from( the( Kremlin’s( an( armed( overtaking( of( government( corridors,( the( notorious( Russian( buildings(and(infrastructure(in(Crimea,( political( figure( Vladislav( Surkov( was( following(the(impressive(victory(of(the( appointed( as( an( aide( to( President( revolutionary(political(forces(in(Kiev(at( Vladimir( Putin( to( oversee( Russian( the(end(of(February.(The(revolution(in( policies(in(Abkhazia(and(South(Ossetia( Ukraine,( where( corrupt( and( in( September( 2013.( Later,( Surkov’s( authoritarian( leader( Viktor( responsibilities( expanded( to( Ukraine( Yanukovych( was( ousted( after( months( and( other( CIS( countries.( Putin’s( aide( of( street( protests( and( the( following( has( visited( the( Georgian( breakaway( Russian( seizure( of( Crimea( have( vast( territories( several( times( after( his( implications( for( all( involved( parties( appointment,( signaling( that( Moscow( and(beyond.(The(parallels(between(the( may( start( a( more( proactive( policy( in( situation(in(Crimea(and(in(the(Georgian( Abkhazia(and(South(Ossetia.( breakaway(territories(of(Abkhazia(and( In( 2013,( one( of( the( local( parties( in( South(Ossetia(are(especially(acute.( Tskhinvali,(United(Ossetia,(started(( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 7! ( every( year.( In( addition,( the( looming( and( worsening( economic( crisis( in( Russia(will(further(diminish(Moscow’s( ability( to( support( its( overseas( client( states.( IMPLICATIONS:( Moscow’s( determination( to( annex( Crimea( has( ( alarmed( the( West( and( produced( a( series( of( economic( and( political( lobbying( for( South( Ossetia’s( accession( sanctions( against( Russia.( The( West( is( to( the( Russian( Federation.( South( also(likely(to(rethink(its(defense(policy( Ossetia's( Minister( for( Emergency( in(Eastern(Europe(in(connection(to(the( Situations,(Anatoly(Bibilov,(is(the(head( changes( in( the( region.( Granting( a( of( the( new( party.( In( the( 2011( Member(Action(Plan(to(Georgia(later(in( presidential( elections,( Moscow( openly( 2014( is( a( real( possibility( now,( supported( Bibilov,( but( suffered( a( according( to( the( Russian( newspaper( crushing( defeat.( Bibilov( and( his( party( Kommersant( that( referred( to( sources( now( want( to( score( points( with( the( in( the( U.S.( Department( of( State.( If( residents( of( the( impoverished( Russia( and( the( West( continue( on( the( republic,( advocating( integration( with( path(to(a(full,fledged(standoff,(Russia(is( Russia( and( resolving( all( South( likely( to( move( on( to( officially( absorb( Ossetia's( economic( problems.( The( Abkhazia(and(South(Ossetia.(( party( is( seemingly( financed( by( some( forces( in( Moscow( as( it( is( doing( Both( Georgian( breakaway( territories( surprisingly( well( for( a( party( that( has( are( heavily( dependent( on( Russia,( but( no(seats(in(the(local(parliament(and(is( until(now(Russian(officials(have(denied( led(by(a(person(who(lost(elections.((( that( Moscow( has( any( plans( to( annex( Abkhazia( and( South( Ossetia( even( in( a( Abkhazia( was( practically( excluded( remote( future.( After( the( crisis( in( from( benefiting( from( the( recent( Crimea,( Russia( may( consider( such( Olympics( in( Sochi,( which( gave( rise( to( political(maneuvering(as(excessive(and( anti,Russian( sentiments( in( Abkhazian( unnecessary,( openly( including( both( society.( The( republic( suffers( from( territories( into( Russian( Federation.( economic( stagnation( as( the( handouts( South( Ossetians( have( their( ethnic( kin( from( Moscow( and( tourism( provide( across(the(mountains(in(North(Ossetia,( only( for( modest( subsistence( needs( of( so( the( argument( will( be( based( on( the( the(locals.(Crimea's(potential(accession( unification( of( Ossetians( as( an( ethnic( to( Russia( will( diminish( the( size( of( the( group.( Abkhazia( has( so( far( stuck( to( a( subsidies( allotted( for( Abkhazia( and( much(more(pro,independence(outlook( South(Ossetia(from(the(Russian(budget,( than(South(Ossetia,(but(it(may(also(be( as( Crimea( will( require( significant( swayed( to( join( Russia.( An( unofficial( Russian( investment.( According( to( survey( by( Ekho( Kavkaza( radio( station( different( estimates,( Crimea( may( already( showed( that( the( majority( of( require( several( billions( of( dollars( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 8! ( residents(of(the(capital(city(of(Sukhumi( impact( on( the( Russian( government’s( were(in(favor(of(joining(Russia.(( decisions( in( Crimea,( than( in( Abkhazia( There( are( also( notable( differences( and(South(Ossetia.(While(Moscow(will( between( Abkhazia( and( South( Ossetia( try( to( showcase( Crimea( as( on( the( one( hand,( and( Crimea( on( the( economically( more( successful( place( other.( Ethnic( Abkhaz( and( ethnic( than(the(rest(of(Ukraine,(Abkhazia(and( Ossetians( fought( ethnic( Georgians( South(Ossetia(are(likely(to(be(relegated( when( they( were( still( part( of( the( same( to(the(roles(of(militarized(enclaves(that( country.( Moscow( was( fueling( both( are( pointed( against( NATO( in( Georgia( conflicts,( Georgian,Abkhaz( and( with( little( concern( for( their( economic( Georgian,Ossetian,( but( regardless( of( wellbeing.(( the( trigger( of( these( conflicts,( it( still( CONCLUSIONS:((Russia's(annexation( made( the( distrust( between( the( of( Crimea( could( have( a( domino( effect( conflicting( parties( a( fact( of( life.( In( elsewhere( in( the( former( Soviet( Crimea,(however,(there(was(hardly(any( countries.(In(particular,(this(applies(to( conflict( between( ethnic( Russians( and( the( Georgian( breakaway( territories( of( ethnic( Ukrainians,( at( least( not( until( Abkhazia( and( South( Ossetia.( Their( Russian(forces(took(over(the(peninsula( limited( and( illusory( political( in(March(2014.(( independence( could( be( scrapped( and( Both( Abkhazia( and( South( Ossetia( they( may( officially( become( part( of( remained( in( limbo( for( nearly( two( Russia,( therefore( further( deepening( decades( after( the( initial( conflict( with( the(crisis(in(the(South(Caucasus(and(in( central( government( in( Tbilisi.( Russia( relations( between( Russia( and( the( did(not(recognize(these(republics(until( West.( The( creation( of( another( semi, going( to( war( with( Georgia( in( 2008.( recognized( territory( and( a( change( of( Since( the( West( is( actively( involved( in( official(borders(signifies(a(crisis(in(the( resolving( the( Crimean( crisis,( Russia( post,Soviet( world( that( threatens( to( will( probably( not( have( the( luxury( of( develop( further,( undermining( the( waiting( for( two( decades( to( decide( the( existing(status,quo(in(variety(of(ways.(( fate(of(the(peninsula(and(wait(until(the( AUTHOR’S(BIO:(Valeriy(Dzutsev(is(a( area( is( completely( in( decay.( Instead,( Senior( Non,Resident( Fellow( at( Moscow( is( likely( to( proceed( quickly( Jamestown( Foundation( and( Doctoral( with(its(economic(rehabilitation.(( Student(in(Political(Science(at(Arizona( Apart( from( the( Western( presence,( State(University.( Moscow’s( decision( is( also( affected( by( ( ethnic( considerations.( While( in( ( Abkhazia( and( South( Ossetia,( Russia( ( dealt( with( ethnic( non,Russians,( in( ( Crimea( ethnic( Russians( are( involved,( ( so( the( domestic( pressures( of( Russian( ( nationalism( on( the( government( in( ( Moscow( will( have( a( much( higher( ( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 9! ( RUSSIA'S(INTERVENTION(IN(UKRAINE( REVERBERATES(IN(CENTRAL(ASIA( Slavomír!Horák! ! While!Russia's!intervention!in!Ukraine!at!first!glance!has!few!implications!for! developments!in!the!Eastern!part!of!former!Soviet!territory,!Central!Asian! governments!and!elites!are!likely!to!analyze!Russia's!recent!actions!carefully.! While!the!Crimea!intervention!could!serve!as!a!short!term!deterrent!against! foreign!orientations!away!from!Russia's!regional!integration!project,!the! increasing!Chinese!influence!in!Central!Asia!will!in!the!long!term!offer!these! states!a!powerful!alternative!to!Russia!and!the!crisis!in!Ukraine!is!increasing! China's!attractiveness!as!a!partner.! ! BACKGROUND:( Russia's( influence( in( consequently(be(expected(to(deepen(in( Central( Asia( has( been( slowly( but( the(future.( constantly( diminishing( over( the( last( Although( Kazakhstan,( as( the( only( decade.( The( new( Russian( empire( Central( Asian( member,( initially( struggles( on( its( Western( edge( against( welcomed( Russia's( economic( union( influence(from(the(EU(and(U.S.(who(are( project,(the(organization(has(started(to( economically( strong( but( militarily( lose( support( in( Kazakhstan's( political( unwilling( to( make( any( action( to( stop( and( economical( circles( due( to( a( Moscow's(plans.(But(Russia(is(facing(an( stronger(influx(of(Russian(business(on( even( more( active( potential( challenger( the( Kazakhstani( market.( And( while( on(its(Eastern(borders.(Although(China( Kyrgyzstan( and( Tajikistan( are( is( still( economically( weaker( than( the( mentioned( as( potential( candidates( to( Euro,American( world,( it( is( taking( join( the( union,( Tajikistan( obtained( effective( measures( to( increase( its( WTO( membership( a( year( ago( and( economic( influence( in( territories( of( Kyrgyzstan( harshly( debates( the( pros( high( interest( to( Russia( and( in( Russia( and( cons( of( joint( membership( in( the( itself.( WTO( and( the( Customs( Union.( At( the( In(Central(Asia,(China(has(over(the(last( same( time,( the( Silk( Road( Economic( decade( been( able( to( substitute( Russia( Belt( initiated( by( China( seems( to( as( Turkmenistan's( major( trading( present( an( attractive( alternative( for( partner( and( is( seriously( challenging( Central( Asian( countries( as( it( contains( Russia's( trade( dominance( with( all( the( neither( Western( ideological( other( four( countries.( Chinese( (democracy( or( human( rights)( investments( in( Central( Asia( have( prerequisites,( nor( a( Russian( already(outpaced(Russian(ones(and(the( geopolitical(embrace.( economic( reorientation( of( Central( Russia( still( maintains( a( military( Asian( economies( to( China( should( predominance( in( Central( Asia,( although(alternatives(exist(also(in(this(( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 10! ( Caucasus.( Even( if( six( years( ago( some( local( elites( approved( of( Russian( advances(in(Georgia,(the(willingness(to( do( so( is( far( lower( today.( Russia's( integration(efforts(will(now(encounter( much( more( suspicious( responses( and( Kyrgyzstan( and( Tajikistan( could( distance(themselves(from(the(Eurasian( ( project.( In( the( long( term,( Kazakhstan( sector.(Russian(equipment(supplies(are( could(even(find(it(unprofitable(to(form( still( key( to( maintaining( the( existing( a(union(with(a(state(ostracized(in(many( armies( in( Central( Asia,( although( the( parts( of( the( world( and( threatening( U.S.,( the( EU,( Israel,( India,( Turkey,( and( Kazakhstan's( territorial( integrity.( South( Korea( have( provided( Central( Kazakhstan's( President( Nursultan( Asian( states( with( second,hand,( but( Nazarbayev's( attitude( at( the( recent( also( some( highly( modern( military( Customs( Union( summit( demonstrated( equipment(particularly(to(Kazakhstan.( a( more( cautious( stance( in( relations( to( The( Russian( army( is( based( in( three( its( northern( neighbor.( Moreover,( any( countries( of( the( region( (Kazakhstan,( attempt( to( tie( Uzbekistan( and( Kyrgyzstan(and(Tajikistan(not(counting( Turkmenistan( closer( to( Russia( –( the( special( case( of( Baikonur),( but( already( a( hard( sell( –( will( now( be( met( Russia's( political( will( to( use( force( in( with( much( more( skepticism( within( case( of( a( serious( crisis( or( an( their(respective(elites.(( asymmetric( insurgency( is( Russia's( aggressive( attitude( can( be( questionable.( compared( to( the( more( quiet( and( Finally,( migration( remains( a( key( effective(Chinese(or(Turkish(strategies( component(of(Russian(influence(in(the( in( the( region.( The( gradual( retirement( region.( Uzbekistan's,( Tajikistan's( and( of( the( last( Soviet( generations( and( Kyrgyzstan's(populations(compose(the( change( of( elites( in( Central( Asian( largest(migrant(labor(force(in(the(post, countries( implies( that( new( state( Soviet(area(and(their(remittances(have( officials( will( analyze( Russia's( actions( become( a( key( element( of( the( survival( based( on( its( current( aggressive( of( these( regimes.( Any( downturn( of( policies( rather( than( tradition( and( old( Russia's( economy( constitutes( a( affiliations.( In( addition,( the( politics( of( potential( destabilization( factor( in( military( “collecting( of( lands”( will( Central(Asia.( confirm( the( perspectives( conveyed( to( IMPLICATIONS:(Cautious(immediate( the( new( elite( in( local( educational( diplomatic( reactions( notwithstanding,( institutions,( where( Russians( are( Russia( should( expect( less( political( already( portrayed( as( colonialists( and( support(for(its(intervention(in(Ukraine( aggressors.( from( its( Central( Asian( allies( than( was( Economically,(recent(figures(indicating( the( case( during( the( 2008( war( in( the( Russia's( stagnation( results( in( fewer( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 11! ( incentives( in( the( form( of( credits( or( Kyrgyz,( Tajik,( and( Uzbek( labor( force( investments( comparing( to( China.( The( escaping( from( the( poverty( in( their( results( of( Chinese( politics( in( Central( home( countries.( However,( even( today( Asia( has( already( prevailed( over( more( skillful( migrants( are( trying( to( Russian( attempts( to( keep( the( local( bypass( Russia( in( their( migration( economies( in( its( orbit.( Russian( strategies,( resulting( in( the( influx( of( a( investments( are( behind( Chinese( ones( less( qualified( labor( force( to( Russia( on(local(markets(despite(their(increase( with( less( knowledge( of( Russian( in( recent( years.( The( experience( with( language( and( no( previous( ties( to( the( Chinese(companies(in(Central(Asia(are( country.( Anti,migrant( rhetoric( often( more( concrete( than( Russian( (particularly( focused( against( Central( promises( of( investments.( Chinese( Asians)(in(the(Russian(state,controlled( businessmen( have( become( able( not( media( makes( their( position( inside( the( only( to( put( their( money( into( the( local( host( country( even( more( difficult.( As( a( economies,(but(also(to(defend(them(in( result,( growing( hostility( between( the( the( complicated( investment( climate,( migrants( and( Russians( could( deplete( with( strong( state( support.( Moreover,( firstly( Russia's( attractiveness( in( the( fears( of( China( as( a( potential( threat( to( eyes(of(future(generations(of(migrants,( territorial( integrity( in( Central( Asia( and( secondly( Russia,Central( Asian( after( redrawing( some( segments( of( its( relations(in(general,(especially(in(light( borders( with( Tajikistan( and( of(the(change(of(elite(mentioned(above.(( Kyrgyzstan( have( calmed( down.( CONCLUSIONS:(Russia's(advances(in( However,(after(the(Crimea(annexation,( Ukraine( could( seem( profitable( for( the( Russia(lost(its(position(as(the((at(least( Kremlin( in( the( short( term,( especially( potential)( guardian( of( the( borders( set( by(tightening(its(relations(with(Eastern( up(in(1895.( Ukraine(and(consolidating(its(domestic( In(light(of(the(Black(Sea(Naval(base(in( position( in( Russia.( However,( Central( Sevastopol,( Central( Asian( leaders( can( Asian(states(will(slowly(but(steadily(try( more( realistically( weigh( the( to( find( ways( to( escape( Russia's( advantages( and( disadvantages( of( embrace.( In( particular,( their( fear( of( Russian( troop( deployment( in( their( China( is( diminishing( in( light( of( the( countries.(In(the(last(years,(Russia(lost( growing( Russian( aggressiveness( and( several( military( bases( and( its( military( economic( stagnation.( Especially( installations( in( Central( Asia( could( Turkmenistan(and(Kazakhstan(are(less( easily( face( the( same( fate( as( those( vulnerable(to(Russia(in(terms(of(labor( earlier(deployed(in(the(Caucasus.( migration( and( hence( possess( more( The( possible( further( stagnation( of( tools( for( seeking( alternative( allies( to( Russia's( economy( due( to( economic( Russia.( Finally,( while( acquiring( a( sanctions(or(isolation(could(easily(turn( relatively(small(area(in(Crimea,(Russia( into( a( disaster( for( Central( Asian( labor( could(pay(a(high(price(by(losing(Central( migrants.(Russia(will(probably(remain( Asia( as( the( last( territory( willing( to( be( an( irreplaceable( destination( for( the( under(its(influence.( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 12! ( AUTHOR'S(BIO:(Slavomír(Horák(is(a( ( researcher( with( The( Department( of( ( Russian( and( East( European( Studies,( The( Institute( of( International( Studies,( ( Faculty( of( Social( Sciences,( Charles( ( University( in( Prague.( He( was( a( ( Fulbright(Fellow(at(CACI(in(2012,2013.( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 13! ( THE(COST(OF(BLACK(TUESDAY(FOR( KAZAKHSTAN(( Birgit!Brauer! ! The!devaluation!of!the!Kazakh!tenge!on!Feb.!11,!dubbed!Black!Tuesday,!has! further! eroded! the! little! trust! people! have! had! in! the! National! Bank! of! Kazakhstan! and! the! country's! financial! system.! The! news! came! as! an! unpleasant! surprise! for! many! Kazakhstanis! who! had! believed! the! repeated! assurances! of! the! National! Bank! that! there! would! be! no! devaluation.! Even! western!financial!analysts,!who!had!anticipated!the!move,!were!taken!aback! by!the!scale!of!the!devaluation.( ( BACKGROUND:( On( February( 11,( the( Given( Kazakhstan's( close( trade,( National(Bank(of(Kazakhstan(devalued( investment(and(financial(ties(to(Russia( the( country's( currency,( the( tenge,( by( and( China,( the( country( is( particularly( 19(percent(against(the(U.S.(dollar.(This( vulnerable( to( shocks( in( these( was( Kazakhstan's( third( devaluation( economies.( For( example,( Russia,( from( since(independence.(The(official(rate(of( which( Kazakhstan( currently( buys( 38( the( tenge( fell( to( around( 185( tenge( to( percent(of(its(imports,(has(been(trying( the( dollar( from( the( previous( rate( of( to( grapple( with( a( severe( economic( 155.5( tenge( the( day( before.( The( bank( slowdown( and( a( plunging( ruble.( Over( announced( that( the( nation's( currency( the( past( year,( the( ruble( has( would(be(kept(within(a(range(of(182(to( depreciated(against(the(tenge(by(some( 188(tenge(to(the(dollar.(( 10( percent.( Meanwhile,( according( to( National( Bank( Chairman( Kairat( Kelimbetov,(Kazakhstan(spent(US$(2.7( Kelimbetov(cited(the(pressure(of(global( billion( from( the( national( reserve( uncertainty( and( weakening( of( between( June( and( August( 2013( and( emerging(market(currencies,(including( US$(2.2(billion(in(January(alone(to(prop( the(recent(depreciation(of(the(Russian( up(the(tenge.( ruble,( as( reasons( for( the( devaluation.( President( Nursultan( Nazarbayev,( who( An(even(more(important(issue,(he(said,( spoke( out( on( the( devaluation( only( was( the( very( pessimistic( outlook( for( three(days(after(the(event,(said(it(was(a( economic( growth( in( Kazakhstan's( purely( financial( measure( to( support( trade( partners,( namely( the( European( Kazakhstan's( major( companies( with( Union,( Russia,( and( China.( What( he( 10,40,000( employees( each.( It( would( failed( to( mention( was( Kazakhstan's( give(the(economy(additional(profit(and( continued(dependence(on(oil(and(high( thereby(spur(growth.( commodity(prices,(as(well(as(problems( The( decision( of( the( National( Bank( related(to(non,performing(loans(in(the( came(precisely(five(years(after(the(last( banking( sector,( a( legacy( of( the( global( devaluation.( In( February( 2009,( the( financial(crisis.(( tenge(was(depreciated(by(18(percent(( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 14! ( carefully(weigh(its(opinions.(Over(time,( this( has( changed,( and( with( that( also( the( level( of( trust( that( people( have( in( this(institution.( ( It( was( only( five( years( ago( that( the( due(to(the(fallout(of(the(global(financial( outgoing( Chairman( Anvar( Saidenov( crisis.( But( unlike( then,( when( the( told( the( public( there( was( no( risk( of( population( resigned( itself( to( the( devaluation,(only(for(it(to(occur(several( decision( of( the( National( Bank,( many( weeks( later( under( the( incoming( Kazakhstanis( now( were( angered( and( Chairman(Grigori(Marchenko.((((( felt(deceived.((( Kelimbetov,( chairman( since( October,( The( National( Bank( had( consistently( confounded( people( when( he( admitted( rejected(any(devaluation(rumors(since( in( his( first( comments( following( the( last( summer.( ( Moreover,( over( the( last( devaluation(that(he(had(learned(about( few( years,( the( National( Bank( had( the( policy( change( only( the( night( encouraged( people( to( put( their( hard, before.( This( led( to( questions( by( earned( money( in( local( banks( and( protesters,( analysts,( and( even( maintain( a( substantial( portion( of( it( in( members( of( parliament( about( his( local(currency,(instead(of(keeping(it(at( competence( and( integrity.( If( he( is( a( home( under( their( mattresses.( The( puppet,( then( who( made( the( decision?( tenge( depreciation( signified( their( President( Nazarbayev( was( notably( deposits( had( lost( one,fifth( of( their( absent(from(the(country(at(the(time(of( value( and( their( hard,currency( loans( devaluation.((( had( increased( accordingly,( making( repayments(far(more(costly.((( But( when( he( returned,( he( swung( into( action.( Nazarbayev( ordered( the( Hence,( the( devaluation( sparked( a( government(on(February(14(to(use(US$( series( of( protests( in( Almaty,( the( 5.4( billion( (1( trillion( tenge)( from( the( financial(capital.((Although(the(number( National( Oil( Fund( to( boost( the( of( protesters( was( relatively( small,( economy( in( 2014( and( 2015.( How( this( varying(between(50(and(200(people,(it( will( be( done( is( not( yet( clear.( He( also( was( sizeable( by( Kazakhstan's( told(the(National(Bank(to(cut(the(share( standards.((( of( non,performing( loans( in( the( IMPLICATIONS:( The( National( Bank( banking( sector( in( half( by( next( year.( of( Kazakhstan( is( in( charge( of( the( These(loans(currently(account(for(31.4( country's( monetary( policy( and( was( percent( of( the( banks'( portfolios( and( designed( as( an( independent( state( are(worth(US$(22.7(billion.(They(are(to( body.( In( practice,( the( standing( of( the( be(reduced(to(15(percent(by(2015(and( bank( has( greatly( depended( on( the( to( 10( percent( by( 2016,( which( will( be( personality( of( its( chairmen.( In( the( difficult(to(accomplish.( 1990s,( the( National( Bank( was( widely( In( addition,( he( ordered( a( 10( percent( considered(an(independent(entity(with( increase( in( salaries( for( state( its(own(decision,making(and(ability(to( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 15! ( employees( in( education,( science,( is( similar( to( Russia's,( albeit( even( less( health,( culture,( sports,( and( social( diversified.( The( February( 2009( protection( starting( April( 1.( Social( devaluation( of( the( tenge( followed( a( assistance,( study( allowances,( and( sharp( drop( in( the( value( of( the( ruble.(( pensions(will(go(up(as(well.((( This( scenario( repeated( itself( on( Nazarbayev( also( called( on( the( large( February(11,(2014.( companies( in( the( country( to( raise( the( The( beneficiaries( of( the( devaluation( salaries( of( their( personnel,( especially( are(Kazakh(companies(in(the(extractive( industrial(workers,(by(10(percent.(The( industries,(such(as(the(copper(exporter( sovereign(wealth(fund(Samruk,Kazyna,( Kazakhmys,( whose( earnings( are( paid( whose(holdings(include(the(national(oil( in( dollars( and( costs( are( mostly( company( Kazmunaigaz( and( state( denominated( in( tenge.( Following( the( railway( company( Kazakhstan( Temir( news( of( the( devaluation,( Kazakhmys'( Zholy,(was(instructed(to(boost(salaries( shares( rose( by( 17.7( percent( on( the( for( workers( by( 10( percent( starting( London( Stock( Exchange.( In( April(1.((( Kazakhstan,( exchange( offices,( shops,( Companies,( such( as( ArcelorMittal( and( grocery( stores( shut( down.( When( Temirtau,( the( country's( largest( they( reopened,( some( food( prices( had( steelworks,( and( Eurasian( Natural( gone(up,(others(had(not.( Resources( Corp( (ENRC)( quickly( said( While(the(devaluation(may(have(made( they(would(comply(with(Nazarbayev's( economic( sense( for( Kazakhstan's( oil( request.( and( mining( exporters,( the( remaining( Yet,(the(jittery(mood(of(the(public(was( trust(in(the(National(Bank(and(the(state( on(full(display(several(days(later(when( authorities( has( thoroughly( been( rumors( spread( on( WhatsApp( on( shaken.( The( devaluation( could( have( February( 18( that( three( large( Kazakh( taken( place( gradually,( as( it( has( in( banks( –( Bank( CenterCredit,( Kaspi( Russia.((( Bank,(and(Alliance(–(were(allegedly(on( Finally,( given( the( current( structure( of( the( verge( of( bankruptcy,( triggering( a( the( economy,( the( National( Bank( and( run( on( the( banks.( Kelimbetov( urged( the( government( have( few( other( tools( the( people( of( Kazakhstan( not( to( at( their( disposal( than( devaluing( the( believe(these(rumors.(Still,(Kaspi(Bank( national( currency( to( avoid( stagnation.( reported( on( February( 20( that( 10( Any(official(assurances(to(the(contrary( percent(of(its(deposits(in(all(currencies( should(be(taken(with(a(grain(of(salt.( had(been(drained.(A(former(employee( AUTHOR'S(BIO:( Birgit( Brauer,( Ph.D.,( of( Bank( CenterCredit( has( since( been( is( an( analyst( of( Central( Asian( affairs.( detained( for( distributing( misleading( She(was(the(Almaty,based(Central(Asia( information.(( correspondent(of(The(Economist(from( CONCLUSIONS:( The( Kazakh( tenge( 1997(until(2012.( tends(to(shadow(the(movements(of(the( ( Russian( ruble.( Kazakhstan's( economy( ( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 16! ( BISHKEK'S(FIRST(OFFICIAL(( STATEMENT(ON(UKRAINE(( Arslan!Sabyrbekov! ( On( March( 11,( Bishkek( made( its( first( leadership( and( all( other( actors( to( use( official(statement(on(the(ongoing(crisis( peaceful( methods( in( resolving( the( in( Ukraine.( The( Kyrgyz( Ministry( for( crisis( and( adhere( to( national( and( Foreign( Affairs( says( that( the( ousted( international( law,( citing( specifically( Ukrainian( President( Viktor( the( Charter( of( the( United( Nations.( Yanukovych( can( no( longer( be( Thus,( the( statement( implicitly( considered( the( country’s( legitimate( recognizes(the(new(Ukrainian(political( leader,(as(he(continues(to(claim.(( elite(and(power(holders.(( Bishkek( reacted( to( Yanukovych's( Bishkek's(reaction(immediately(turned( statement( on( March( 11( that( he( is( still( into(a(source(of(discussion(among(local( Ukraine’s( only( legitimate( President.( political( analysts.( In( the( words( of( the( The( Kyrgyz( Foreign( Ministry( stated( Bishkek( based( political( analyst( Marat( that( the( current( crisis( in( Ukraine( was( Kazakpaev,( “even( though( the( caused( by( widespread( corruption( and( statement( of( the( Kyrgyz( Foreign( wrong( decisions( taken( by( the( former( Ministry(against(Yanukovych(seems(to( authorities( of( that( country.( “The( only( contain(some(sort(of(political(attack(on( source( of( power( in( any( country( is( its( Moscow,( it( is( in( fact( very( tuned( and( people,( a( president( who( lost( his( precise.”( According( to( the( expert,( the( people’s( trust,( who( de( facto( lost( his( statement( from( the( Kyrgyz( MFA( will( presidential( authority( and( moreover,( not(cause(a(negative(reaction(from(the( who( fled( his( own( country,( cannot( Russian( leadership,( especially( taken( consider( himself( to( be( the( legitimate( into( account( its( growing( economic( leader,”( the( statement( says.( presence( in( the( Kyrgyz( republic,( Furthermore,( Bishkek( described( the( particularly( in( the( form( of( gas,( people( who( died( during( the( violent( hydropower,( and( mining( investment( clashes(in(Kiev(as(“innocent(people.”(( projects.(( The( statement( did( not( directly( Based( on( this( opinion,( the( statement( mention( the( critical( situation( in( seems( to( be( directed( primarily( to( the( Crimean( peninsula.( But( Kyrgyzstan( domestic(audience.(On(the(one(hand,(it( expressed( its( concern( over( the( neutralizes( a( constant( claim( of( the( development( of( the( general( situation( opposition(that(the(current(leadership( in( Ukraine( and( condemned( all( is( subordinated( to( Moscow.( On( the( activities( aimed( at( destabilizing( the( other(hand,(it(would(be(illogical(for(the( situation( in( the( country,( without( Kyrgyz( authorities,( who( came( to( specifying( who( it( considers( to( be( power( by( means( of( demonstrations( responsible( for( destabilization.( The( and( many( casualties( to( express( its( Kyrgyz(Foreign(Ministry(also(called(on( support(for(Yanukovych,(who(has(often( the( country’s( current( political( been(compared(to(ousted(ex,president( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 17! ( Kurmanbek(Bakiyev.(Like(Bakiyev,(the( has( shown( respect( for( the( democratic( ousted( Ukrainian( President( aspirations( of( both( the( people( of( Yanukovych( had( established( a( heavily( Ukraine(and(the(Kyrgyz(Republic.”( corrupt( authoritarian( regime,( used( While( it( remains( to( be( seen( what( this( force( against( demonstrators,( and( also( statement( will( bring,( it( has( turned( settled( in( a( foreign( country( with( Kyrgyzstan( into( the( first( member( of( continuous( statements( of( his( the( Russia,led( Commonwealth( of( legitimacy.( Even( in( terms( of( foreign( Independent( States( with( a( view( that( policy,(the(ousted(presidents(resemble( largely(contradicts(the(Kremlin’s.( one(another(in(terms(of(lacking(a(clear( vision( and( playing( with( all( the( big( ( actors( in( their( efforts( of( maximizing( ( dividends,(which(were(often(personal.(( ( On(the(contrary,(political(analyst(Mars( ( Sariev( believes( that( "the( statement( of( the(Kyrgyz(Ministry(for(Foreign(Affairs( ( will( negatively( impact( and( cool( down( ( the( Kyrgyz,Russian( relations.( As( a( ( response(to(this(statement,(the(Russian( Federation( can( and( is( in( a( position( to( ( block( Kyrgyzstan’s( entry( into( the( ( Customs(Union(under(preferable(terms( and( conditions( asked( by( Bishkek."( ( Sariev( also( recalled( that( in( 2008,( ( Bishkek( took( another( position( than( ( that(of(the(Russian(Federation(over(the( Ossetia,Abkhazia( conflict( in( Georgia,( ( which( at( that( time( did( not( cause( a( ( heavy( deterioration( but( cooled( down( ( relations(between(the(two(countries.(( ( In(turn,(the(U.S.(Embassy(in(the(Kyrgyz( Republic( issued( its( own( statement( ( commending( the( Kyrgyz( Ministry( for( ( Foreign( Affairs( “for( its( strong( statement( recognizing( the( new( ( Ukrainian(government.(By(condemning( ( all( acts( that( would( lead( to( further( ( destabilization( in( Crimea( and( elsewhere,( and( affirming( that( the( ( legitimate( source( of( power( in( any( ( country( is( the( will( of( its( people,( the( ( Government( of( the( Kyrgyz( Republic( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 18! ( GEORGIAN(PARLIAMENT(AMENDS(ELECTION(CODE( AHEAD(OF(SPRING(LOCAL(ELECTIONS(( Eka!Janashia! ( On( March( 7,( the( Georgian( parliament( round,( causing( additional( costs( for( adopted( amendments( to( the( election( taxpayers.( The( GD( proposal( had( code( defining( the( rules( for( local( already( been( included( in( the( draft( elections,( scheduled( for( June( 15.( amendments,( when( Prime( Minister( Mayors( of( twelve( cities,( heads( Irakli( Garibashvili( announced( the( (gamgebeli)( of( all( municipalities( and( coalition’s( consent( to( a( 50( percent( members( of( municipal( councils( threshold(for(electing(both(mayors(and( (sakrebulos)( will( be( elected.( The( gamgebelis(on(February(17.(( package(of(bills(aims(to(harmonize(the( In( parallel( with( increasing( the( electoral(system(with(a(new(local(self, threshold( for( the( heads( of( cities( and( governance( law( foreseeing( direct( municipalities,( the( amendment( has( election( of( mayors( and( gamgebelis( lowered( the( threshold( for( the( across(the(country.(( city/municipal( council’s( party( list( Innovatively,( it( introduces( a( minimal( candidates,( meaning( that( the( party( threshold( for( electing( mayors( and( garnering(at(least(4(percent((instead(of( gamgebelis(at(50(percent.(Only(Tbilisi’s( 5( percent)( will( be( able( to( secure( mayor( has( previously( been( directly( council((sakrebulo)(mandates.(( elected(and(the(threshold(in(the(capital( Additionally,(sakrebulo(seats(allocated( was(set(at(30(percent,(implying(that(a( for( the( party( list( contest( have( been( candidate( gathering( a( plurality( of( raised(from(10(to(15(while(the(number( votes,( but( not( less( than( 30( percent,( of(majoritarian(seats(vary(according(to( would(have(been(declared(an(outright( the( amount( of( constituencies( in( winner.( The( minimal( threshold( for( municipalities.( It( is( believed( that( the( electing( mayors( and( gamgebelis( was( shift(will(ease(the(penetration(of(small( the(most(contested(issue(ahead(of(the( parties( into( sakrebulos,( which( should( bill’s(approval.(( ideally( strengthen( democratic( Initially,( the( Georgian( Dream( (GD)( processes(at(local(level.( ruling( coalition( advocated( a( threshold( Despite( the( fact( that( after( the( 2010( at( 40( and( 33( percent( for( Tbilisi's( and( local( elections,( the( OSCE/ODIHR( the( other( eleven( cities’( mayoral( international( election( observation( candidates( respectively,( and( 33( mission( recommended( Georgia( to( percent( for( gamgebelis.( Although( the( permit( independent( candidates( to( non,parliamentary( opposition( parties( compete( in( local( elections,( the( new( and( most( non,governmental( amendments(do(not(allow(them(to(run( organizations( resisted( the( proposal( for(the(mayor(or(gamgebeli(posts.(Only( demanding( to( set( a( higher( threshold,( candidates( nominated( by( either( the( GD( claimed( that( this( would( political( parties( or( election( blocs( will( increase( the( likelihood( of( a( second( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 19! ( be(able(to(compete(for(these(positions.( independent( candidates( to( run( for( Independent(candidates(nominated(by( mayor( as( well( as( gamgebeli( posts.( so( called( "community( initiative( According(to(the(bill,(a(person(running( groups"( could( run( only( for( for(mayor(could(concurrently(compete( majoritarian( seats( in( sakrebulos.( In( for( a( sakrebulo( seat( as( well.( addition,( according( to( the( Nevertheless,( the( UNM( initiative( was( amendments,( a( person( contesting( for( watered( down( by( the( GD( mayor( or( gamgebeli( posts( cannot( parliamentary(majority(on(March(7.(( simultaneously( compete( for( a( So(far,(only(two(major(political(forces,( sakrebulo(mandate.(( the(ruling(GD(coalition(and(UNM,(have( The( parliamentary( as( well( as( non, nominated(their(mayoral(candidates.( parliamentary( opposition( parties( Before( the( presidential( election( in( lamented( that( given( the( scarcity( of( October,( then( Prime( Minister( Bidzina( cadres( locally,( the( rules( will( prevent( Ivanishvili(said(that(he(already(had(“in( them( from( nominating( candidates( in( mind”(who(might(run(for(Tbilisi(mayor.( many(constituencies.(( At( the( coalition( leaders’( meeting( in( Another( set( of( changes( refers( to( November,(GD(nominated(the(minister( increased(funding(for(parties.(Election( for( infrastructure( and( regional( blocs( or( parties( garnering( at( least( 3( development,( Davit( Narmania( for( the( percent( of( the( votes( in( local( elections( post.( Narmania,( 34,( insisted( that( he( will( get( GEL( 500,000( (US$( 289,000)( will( be( a( technocrat( rather( than( a( from( the( state( budget( to( cover( political( figure.( He( acknowledged( that( campaign( expenses.( The( bill( also( the( 50( percent( threshold( is( a( serious( envisages( higher( funding( for( party( challenge(for(the(coalition(but(hoped(to( representatives( in( election( achieve( outright( victory( in( the( first( administrations.( round.( To( avoid( duplications,( the( newly( Initially,( UNM( planned( to( appoint( its( adopted( amendments( involves( mayoral( candidate( through( primaries( digitalization( of( voters’( photos,( and( named( the( former( deputy( Justice( meaning(that(the(election(commission( Minister,( MP( Giorgi( Vashadze,( and( officials(at(each(precinct(will(be(able(to( Tbilisi(municipal(official(Nikoloz(Melia( verify( the( identity( of( a( voter( through( as( primary( contenders.( However,( digital(photos(attached(to(the(voter(list( Vashadze( shortly( thereafter( withdrew( in(their(data(base.(In(case(of(mismatch,( from( the( race.( The( move( may( suggest( various( procedures( including( the( that( UNM( preferred( to( nominate( a( submission( of( information( to( the( person(who(is(less(associated(with(the( police(will(be(enforced.(( party(but(has(a(good(reputation(among( The(United(National(Movement((UNM)( Tbilisi( citizens.( Further,( Melia( is( prepared(an(alternative(draft(intended( originally(from(Tbilisi,(which(increases( to( oppose( the( regulations( set( by( the( his( chances( against( Narmania( who( is( new( amendments,( enabling( not( from( the( capital( city( and( whose( rating(much(depends(on(that(of(GD.(( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 20! ( TURKMENISTAN(INTRODUCES(NEW(MEASURES(TO( CONSERVE(NATURAL(GAS( Tavus!Rejepova! ! During( a( Cabinet( meeting( on( January( installed( 61,000( in( households,( and( 17,(President(Berdimuhamedov(tasked( has( also( announced( an( international( the( Deputy( Chairman( for( Oil( &( Gas,( tender( for( the( purchase( of( more( gas( Baymurad( Hojamuhamedov,( and( meters.(The(government(has(not(given( Deputy( Chairwoman( for( Culture,( any( timeframe( for( completing( the( Byagul( Nurmyradova,( to( prepare( a( installation(of(gas(meters(and(the(State( series(of(TV(programs(and(newspaper( Concern( Turkmengas( is( calling( on( all( articles( on( the( efficient( use( of( natural( households( and( organizations( to( gas,( provided( free( of( charge( for( the( support( this( initiative( and( install( gas( population(since(1993.(In(addition,(the( meters.( The( households( who( already( President( signed( a( decree( on( January( purchased( these( gas( meters( several( 31(raising(the(cost(of(natural(gas(from( months(ago(from(Turkmengas(say(the( 2( (US$( 0.70)( to( 20( manat( (US$( 7),( meters( cost( up( to( 800( manat( (US$( including( the( VAT,( for( the( thousand( 280)(a(piece.(((((((( cubic(meters(of(gas(used(over(the(free( As( per( the( late( president( Niyazov’s( allowed( limit( of( 600( cubic( meters( per( decrees( from( September( 1992( and( person(and(year.(( August( 2003,( the( consumption( of( According( to( the( presidential( decree,( natural( gas,( electricity,( cooking( salt,( the( new( price( for( gas( over( the( free( drinking( water( and( a( limited( amount( limit( came( into( effect( on( February( 1,( of(gasoline(is(free(for(the(population(of( 2014.( The( government( will( calculate( Turkmenistan( until( 2030.( The( current( the(consumption(of(formerly(unlimited( administration’s( recent( measures( to( natural( gas( through( the( gas( meters( introduce( new( fees( for( over,the,free, currently(being(installed(in(households( limit( gas( and( install( gas( meters( for( across( the( country.( President( efficient(and(rational(use(of(natural(gas( Berdimuhamedov( said( that( the( are( aimed( at( reducing( the( possible( installation( of( gas( meters( will( allow( waste( of( gas( and( determine( the( real( people(to(economically(use(natural(gas( amount(of(gas(consumed(for(domestic( and(that(the(payment(for(using(the(gas( purposes.( According( to( the( president,( will( not( create( difficulties( for( the( “nobody(monitors(the(consumption(of( families.( The( president( further( natural(gas(in(the(country.(The(amount( stressed( that( the( government( will( of( free( gas( consumed( domestically( is( always( continue( the( current( policy( of( increasing( year( by( year( and( the( social( support( to( the( population( of( government( loses( its( earnings.”( Turkmenistan.(( According(to(state(newspaper(reports,( Meanwhile,( the( State( Concern( Turkmenistan(consumes(one(and(a(half( Turkmengas( purchased( over( 124,000( times( more( gas( than( the( free( limit( of( units( of( gas( meters( and( has( so( far( 600(cubic(meters(per(person(per(year.((((((((( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 21! ( In( this( connection,( President( residents.( This( might( also( have( an( Berdimuhamedov( also( dismissed( impact( on( the( cost( of( products( like( Kakageldi( Abdyllayev,( the( former( tomatoes,( cucumbers,( lemons,( chairman( of( the( State( Concern( potatoes( and( other( food( products( Turkmengas( who( was( transferred( to( produced( in( greenhouses( across( the( another( position,( and( said( that( the( country.(( agency( failed( to( take( effective( The( government’s( measures( to( measures(to(boost(the(export(potential( regulate( the( efficient( use( of( free( to( replenish( the( state( earnings( in( natural( gas( for( the( population( also( foreign( currencies( and( no( measures( follow(the(latest(increase(in(the(level(of( were(taken(to(improve(the(status(quo.( gasification(of(homes,(increased(use(of( “For( example,( one( can( make( lots( of( natural( gas( for( industrial( enterprises( earnings( by( increasing( the( volume( of( and( electricity( generation( across( the( production( and( sale( of( liquefied( country.( In( addition,( the( government( natural(gas,(which(is(in(high(demand(in( made( it( clear( that( the( domestic( global(markets”(said(the(president.(He( subsidies( are( costly( for( said( Turkmenistan’s( other( state( Turkmenistan’s( economy.( agencies,(on(the(contrary,(managed(to( Turkmenistan(currently(sells(its(gas(to( accumulate( earnings( in( foreign( China,( Russia,( and( Iran,( and( is( in( the( currencies(as(opposed(to(Turkmengas.((( process( of( forming( a( consortium( for( This(series(of(new(measures(intend(to( the(construction(of(the(Turkmenistan, ensure( the( efficient( use( of( natural( gas( Afghanistan,Pakistan,India( (TAPI)( gas( by( the( population( and( regulate( the( pipeline.(( payments( for( gas.( In( August( 2013,( ( Turkmen( parliament( passed( the( first( ever(bill(“On(hydrocarbon(gas(and(gas( ( supply,”( which( aims( to( create( the( ( conditions( for( a( functioning( gas( ( market( and( regulate( the( procedure( of( gas( supply( systems( in( the( country.( In( ( addition,( the( President( asked( Akja( ( Nurberdieva,( the( speaker( of( ( Turkmenistan’s( Parliament,( to( look( into( drafting( additional( laws( or( ( regulations( that( control( the( efficient( ( and( economical( consumption( of( natural(gas.((( ( It( is( expected( that( rural( areas,( where( ( gas( is( used( for( heating( greenhouses,( ( barns( for( livestock,( cottages( and( ( garages,( might( feel( the( rise( in( cost( of( gas( more( significantly( than( the( urban( ( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 22! ( FEMINIST(ACTIVISTS(ATTACKED(( IN(OSH,(KYRGYZSTAN(( Ebi!Spahiu

On( March( 5,( an( awareness,raising( quizzes( on( the( history( of( women’s( campaign( in( honor( of( International( rights(and(informational(brochures(on( Women’s(Day,(conducted(by(a(group(of( violence( prevention( resources( human( rights( activists( from( Bishkek( available(for(women(in(Bishkek.(( Feminists( SQ,( a( feminist( organization( The( incident( took( place( in( the( late( based(in(Bishkek,(turned(into(a(violent( afternoon( of( March( 5.( According( to( attack(at(Osh(Bazaar,(one(of(the(largest( activists’( accounts( to( local( news( bazaars(in(Kyrgyzstan’s(capital.(As(the( agency( Kloop.kg,( a( group( of( 20,30( activists( were( trying( to( engage( with( people,( predominantly( men,( gathered( local( vendors( and( bystanders( on( the( around( the( event( location( and( started( history(of(women’s(rights(and(provide( asking( insulting( and( intimidating( information( on( domestic( violence( questions( to( the( young( activists( while( prevention( resources,( the( crowd( they( were( trying( to( conduct( their( became( increasingly( hostile( towards( activities.( According( to( Bishkek( the(group.(As(many(mistook(the(female( Feminist( SQ's( official( press( statement,( symbol( for( the( Christian( cross,( they( most(men(confused(the(female(gender( accused( the( activists( of( promoting( symbol( with( that( of( a( Christian( cross( Christianity( and( physically( attacked( and( began( asking( verbally( aggressive( them,( leaving( two( of( the( activists( questions(to(the(young(activists:(“Why( injured.((( do( you( have( crosses( at( your( booth?”( For( the( second( consecutive( year,( “Are( you( not( Muslims?”( “You( see( that( Bishkek( Feminist( SQ,( a( local( feminist( kalpak?( It( makes( me( Kyrgyz.( If( you’re( organization( run( by( a( group( of( young( Kyrgyz,( you( must( be( Muslim!”( They( human( rights( activists,( has( challenged( also(stated(that(March(8(should(not(be( the( grandeur( of( the( March( 8( celebrated(because(it(“is(not(a(Muslim( celebrations(,(a(Soviet(legacy(marking( holiday,”( says( SQ.( As( verbal( this( day( ,( by( advocating( feminist( confrontation(between(the(two(groups( values( and( raising( awareness( on( escalated,( the( men( grabbed( the( alarming( statistics( of( gender,based( activists( by( their( collars,( spit( on( them( violence( in( Kyrgyzstan.( Their( mission( and( blew( cigarette( smoke( on( their( is( to( end( all( forms( of( oppression( and( faces.( violence(against(women(and(this(year,( Despite( the( activists( attempts( to( in( honor( of( International( Women’s( appease(the(situation,(some(men(were( Day,( they( decided( to( hold( an( forcing( the( activists( to( repeat( verses( awareness,raising( campaign( at( Osh( from(the(Quran(while(publicly(shaming( Bazaar,( one( of( largest( and( most( them.( When( the( activists( were( crowded( bazaars( located( on( the( west( preparing( to( leave,( men( in( the( crowd( side( of( Bishkek.( They( had( prepared( smashed(their(stand,(followed(them(as( ! Central!Asia,Caucasus!Analyst,!19!March!2014! 23! ( they( were( trying( to( move( away( and( forums(where(many(called(for(violence( kicked(them(on(the(ground.(The(event( against( openly( gay( community( stand(was(set(on(fire(while(the(activists( members.( In( addition,( a( new( were( being( beaten,( claims( Bishkek( nationalist( movement,( Kalys,( has( Feminist(SQ.(After(minutes(of(physical( staged( a( series( of( protests( following( abuse,(two(of(the(activists(managed(to( the( report’s( release,( calling( for( the( escape( and( approach( police( officers,( adoption( for( an( anti,gay( propaganda( but( their( request( for( protection( went( law.( According( to( Eurasianet.org,( to( deaf( ears.( They( eventually( sought( Kalys’( leader( Jenishbek( Moldokmatov( refuge(at(a(local(district(court(building( “criticized( HRW( indirectly”( and( after(being(chased(by(an(angry(crowd( condemned( the( LGBT( community( for( following(them.(Despite(their(pleas(for( “screaming”( about( police( abuse.( help( from( the( court’s( staff,( they( were( Moldokmatov( also( burned( a( photo( of( met(with(hostility(by(some(of(the(staff( Ilya( Lukash,( an( ethnic( Ukrainian( who(demanded(they(leave(the(building.( blogger( living( in( Bishkek,( whom( he( Even( though( police( eventually( arrived( labeled(as(a(“gay(activist”(and(accused( at( the( scene( and( assisted( the( activists( him( of( attempting( to( foment( a( to(get(out(safely,(they(“failed(to(provide( “Ukraine,style( revolution( in( the( adequate( order( among( the( crowd( and( country.”(( did( not( take( immediate( actions( to( As( many( analysts( observe( the( rise( of( arrest( the( instigators( and( nationalism(and(discuss(the(likelihood( perpetrators,”(writes(Bishkek(Feminist( of( increasing( Islamic( influence( in( SQ.((( Kyrgyzstan,( local( human( rights( This( is( not( the( first( time( that( defenders( are( facing( a( strong( nationalist( and( religious( rhetoric( has( nationalist(and(religious(backlash(as(a( been(used(to(instigate(violence(against( result( of( Kyrgyzstan's( aspirations( to( human( rights( activists( in( Kyrgyzstan.( reclaim( its( national( identity( after( In( recent( months,( especially( following( decades(of(Soviet(rule(and(respond(to(a( the( release( of( a( Human( Rights( Watch( Western(push(for(democratic(reforms,( report( on( police( abuse( of( gay( and( where( at( the( center,stage( are( causes( bisexual( men( in( Kyrgyzstan,( religious( involving(women,(sexuality(and(ethnic( and(nationalist(groups(have(repeatedly( identity.( “These( religious( entities( are( called( for( violence( against( the( LGBT( influential,( but( there( aren’t( just( community(in(the(country.(On(January( Muslims( living( here( in( Kyrgyzstan.( 30,( Kyrgyzstan’s( then( acting( grand( These( statements( can( create( negative( Mufti(issued(a(Fatwa(against(same,sex( public(opinion,(they(bring(violence(and( relations,(calling(on(Kyrgyz(authorities( cause( conflict,”( says( Dastan,( a( human( “to( pay( special( attention( to( the( rights(activist(from(Bishkek.(( activities(of(some(public(organizations( ( that( disseminate( social( discord( while( using( humanistic( ideas.”( This( move( sparked(a(vocal(debate(in(social(media(