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Leveraging Political Change in a Context of Strategic Volatility

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Study Group Information Frederic Labarre George Niculescu (Eds.) South Caucasus: Leveraging Political Change in a Context of Strategic Volatility 18th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group “Regional Stability in the South Caucasus” 05/2019 Vienna, April 2019 Imprint: Copyright, Production, Publisher: Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence Rossauer Lände 1 1090 Vienna, Austria Edited by: National Defence Academy Command Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Vienna, Austria In co-operation with: PfP Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany Study Group Information Copyright © Republic of Austria / Federal Ministry of Defence All rights reserved April 2019 ISBN 978-3-903121-65-2 Printing: ReproZ W 19-xxxx Stiftgasse 2a 1070 Wien Disclaimer The following documents have been edited for syntax, length and coher- ence. The opinion found herein are those of their respective authors only and in no way represent that of the co-chairs, sponsors, PfP Consortium stakeholders or any one having helped facilitate the hosting of the 18th workshop on Regional Stability in the South Caucasus, nor is the inclusion of articles and chapters in to this publication an acknowledgement or en- dorsement of any opinion found therein by the co-chairs, sponsors or stakeholders of the PfP Consortium. The use of certain place names does not imply a particular status for said place, nor does it imply endorsement for any status, but merely the personal choice of the author owing to lin- guistic preferences. Table of Contents Disclaimer ............................................................................................................... 3 Table of Contents .................................................................................................. 5 Preface George Niculescu and Frederic Labarre ...................................................................... 9 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................. 15 Abstract ................................................................................................................. 17 Key Note Address A Surfacing New World Order: The Crisis of the Old West Peter W. Schulze ..................................................................................................... 19 PART I: TAKING STOCK OF POLITICAL CHANGE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS ........................................................................ 35 Foreign Policy and Security Challenges for Azerbaijan in a Post-Oil Boom Era Ahmad Alili ........................................................................................................... 37 The Armenian “Velvet Revolution”: What Next? Armen Grigoryan .................................................................................................... 51 Speaking Notes Saakashvili’s Legacy and the Tbilisi Protests of 2018 Ia Metreveli .............................................................................................................. 65 Southern Caucasus Stability and Energy Security Cyril Widdershoven .................................................................................................. 75 5 PART II: THE PERSPECTIVES FROM ABKHAZIA, NAGORNO-KARABAKH, AND SOUTH OSSETIA ............................. 87 Abkhazia and the Key Events of the Year 2018 Daut Apsanba ........................................................................................................ 89 Perspectives from South Ossetia Zarina Sanakoeva ................................................................................................... 99 Velvet Revolution in Armenia: Challenges and Opportunities Hrachya Arzumanyan ........................................................................................... 105 No Solution without Global Players’ Sincerity Razi Nurullayev .................................................................................................... 119 PART III: THE PERSPECTIVE OF GREAT POWERS AND THE PROSPECT FOR PEACE ........................................................ 133 Armenian “Velvet Revolution”: Why has Russia’s Reaction been Tame? Giorgi Davidian..................................................................................................... 135 The Export of Hate: Radicalism Seeps through the Borders Anton Chablin ...................................................................................................... 153 PART IV: RE-ENERGIZING CRISIS INTERNATIONALIZATION ................. 159 Frozen Conflicts and De Facto States in Post-Soviet Space Alexander Dubowy ................................................................................................ 161 Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution”, Karabakh Conflict Internationalization and Recasting Western Regional Strategies George Vlad Niculescu .......................................................................................... 169 6 Details of the Georgian Peace Deal with Abkhazia Maia Sherazadishvili ............................................................................................. 181 Changes in Global and Regional Order: Implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Benyamin Poghosyan .............................................................................................. 191 Re-energizing the Peace Process in the South Caucasus Elkhan Nuriyev .................................................................................................... 201 PART V: SUPPLEMENT TO THE STUDY GROUP INFORMATION OF THE 17TH WORKSHOP ON “WHAT A ‘NEW EUROPEAN SECURITY DEAL’ COULD MEAN FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS” ................................. 213 The European Security System: Prospects and Hopes Hrachya Arzumanyan ........................................................................................... 215 PART VI: EPILOGUE ....................................................................................................... 239 Epilogue Frederic Labarre .................................................................................................... 241 PART VII: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................. 247 Policy Recommendations Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group ........................................... 249 List of Abbreviations ........................................................................................ 259 List of Authors and Editors ............................................................................. 263 7 Preface George Niculescu and Frederic Labarre The Regional Stability in the South Caucasus Study Group of the PfP Con- sortium (RSSC SG) convened its 18th workshop entitled “South Caucasus: Leveraging Political Change in a Context of Strategic Volatility” at Château Rothschild, in Reichenau/Rax, Austria, on 08-11 November 2018. This preface opens the publication of the proceedings of that workshop includ- ing articles/speaking notes from the panellists and the ensuing Policy Rec- ommendations. The planning of this workshop started under an optimistic mantra; “change is always pregnant with risk. But it is also harbinger of opportunity.” The year 2018 was rich in political upheavals across the South Caucasus (SC) region. Let us take up the most relevant event-driven political changes: protests followed by government reshuffle, and a tough presidential elec- tion in Georgia; a successful “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia pragmatically accepted by Moscow as no “colour revolution”; a rejected Georgian offer for a peace deal with Abkhazia, and South Ossetia followed by Syrian recognition of the statehood of the latter steering natural diplomatic pro- tests from Tbilisi; creeping military tensions between Armenia and Azerbai- jan from the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact to the border of Armenia with Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic against the back- drop of pragmatic abstention by Baku to take military advantage from do- mestic turmoil in Yerevan; an embryonic political unrest in Nagorno- Karabakh quickly shut-down by an apparent adjustment of local leadership with the new authorities in Yerevan. To this add national elections in Rus- sia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, street demonstrations followed by political resignations. Does political change threaten or promote stability in the case of the South Caucasus? How could we mitigate/inhibit political changes or, upon the case, benefit from them as opportunities for positive regional transfor- mation? How are the current political changes in the South Caucasus linked to the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West? 9 With such an ambitious agenda in mind, we dared a slight departure from the regular working methods of the RSSC SG, i.e. choosing a thematic top- ic and then looking at the South Caucasus region through its lens with a view to projecting realistic policy recommendations. Unlike in the past, this workshop was rather event-driven. We thought it as an initial “stock tak- ing” exercise aiming to determine connections between events (and non- events) in one particular year (i.e. 2018). That was followed up with insights into how event-driven political changes might be contingent upon great power confrontation and geo-strategic competition in the region, and an assessment of opportunity for meaningful conflict resolution and stabiliza- tion. This new working method, reflected in the structure of the discussion, and in most speakers’ briefings and articles, yielded more substantive out- comes than expected.
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