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Turkey Into the Abyss? Suna Erdem on Whether Turkey’S Politicians Can Prevent a Catastrophe from Unfolding

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Turkey Into the Abyss? Suna Erdem on Whether Turkey’S Politicians Can Prevent a Catastrophe from Unfolding Inside this issue: Out of Africa for Russian banking exile Jennings Mattoni puts the fizz into Central European waters Slovakia’s Fico told to take November 2015 www.bne.eu his trousers down GBP 4.50/USD 6.75/EUR 5.90 Turkey into the abyss? Suna Erdem on whether Turkey’s politicians can prevent a catastrophe from unfolding Special Report: Ben Aris looks at Georgian PM CEE/CIS Bank Moscow Exchange’s Garibashvili Survey 2015 revival p. 12 talks China, p. 28 Russia and trade p. 60 ISSN 2059-2736 ISSN bne November 2015 Contents I 3 Senior editorial board Ben Aris (Moscow) +7 9162903400 editor-in-chief [email protected] 20 10 James R Hammond (Boston) +1 6178525441 publisher [email protected] Nicholas Watson (Prague) +42 0731582719 managing editor [email protected] Robert Anderson (Prague) +42 0603517867 news editor [email protected] Liam Halligan (London) +44 7801799279 editor-at-large [email protected] Central Asia 15 Naubet Bisenov (Almaty) +7 7015933810 bureau chief [email protected] Eastern Europe 6 THE MONTH THAT WAS 28 SPECIAL REPORT – Nicholas Allen (Berlin) +49 15730395872 CEE/CIS Bank Survey 2015 bureau chief [email protected] Central Europe COMPANIES & MARKETS Tim Gosling (Prague) +42 0720180811 36 COVER FEATURE bureau chief [email protected] 10 Out of Africa for Russia Southeast Europe banking exile Jennings Turkey into the abyss? Clare Nuttall (Bucharest) +7 7073011495 bureau chief [email protected] 11 Russia’s central bank limits foreign shareholder voting Advertising & subscription CENTRAL EUROPE Elena Arbuzova (Moscow) +7 9160015510 business development [email protected] 12 Moscow Exchange on a roll 40 Melnikoff's ‘Metamorphosis’ Michael Dragoyevich (London) +44 7715412938 commercial director [email protected] 15 Mattoni puts the fizz into 42 Fico told to take his trousers down Central European waters Design 44 J&T gets Chinese oodles Olga Gusarova (London) +44 7738783240 17 Business leader-turned- of cash art director [email protected] technocrat ready to mine Cover illustration: Illarion Gordon Mongolia's “treasures” SOUTHEAST EUROPE Please direct comments, letters, press releases and other editorial enquires to [email protected] 18 Multinationals pessimistic on Russian market 46 Stavreski says investors keeping All rights reserved. No part of this publication faith with Macedonia may be reproduced, stored in or introduced to any 19 Ukraine cities compete to retrival system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, attract IT companies 47 Roldovan graft recording or other means of transmission, without express written permission of the publisher. The 20 Once I lived the life of a mil- 49 Turkey’s medical tourism industry opinions or recommendations are not necessarily those of the publisher or contributing authors, lionaire… looks a little pale including the submissions to bne by third parties. No liability can be attached to the publisher for 22 Fondul Proprietatea drives these comments, nor for inaccuracies, errors or Romania’s privatisation EASTERN EUROPE omissions. Investment decisions or related actions taken on the basis of views or opinions that appear agenda herein are the responsibility of the reader and the 52 Ukraine’s ‘shadow government’ publisher, contributors and related parties cannot 24 Signs of a resurrection in investigated for money laundering be held liable for these actions. Russia’s moribund capital markets 56 Lukashenko is Belarus’ president but nobody’s friend 26 Eurasia currencies continue to face devaluation pres- 58 More bumps in Russia’s bne IntelliNews is the property sures pension reform road of New Sparta Media. New Sparta Media | 27a Floral Street, 3rd Floor, London, WC2E 9EZ, UK 27 Corporate Statement: 59 'Farmer John' brings cheddar to PASHA Bank cheese-starved Muscovites Print issue: €499 / year. 4 I Contents bne November 2015 66 60 74 EURASIA 68 Revving Georgia’s economic 76 OBITUARY: Arpad Goncz engine – Hungary's first elected 60 Georgian PM eyes free trade president deal with China within a year 71 Are emerging markets set to rally? 63 A purge in Baku NEW EUROPE IN NUMBERS 73 Rhetorical wizard Draghi 64 Fugitive Kazakh banker one conjures up a QE battle 78 Charts of the month step closer to home 80 Macroeconomic indicators ARTS, CULTURE & PEOPLE OPINION 81 Financial indicators 74 The camera loves Tbilisi – 66 The limits of the Russian and vice versa ‘patriotic mobilization’ 82 UPCOMING EVENTS Follow us on twitter.com/bizneweurope COMPANIES MENTIONED Looksery (19) Bank Petrocommerz Ukraine (31) Aktif Yatırım Bankası (33) Asaka Bank (35) Volkswagen (8) Luxoft (19) Motor Bank (31) Nurol 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Try IntelliNews for free today at intellinews.com 6 I The Month That Was bne November 2015 Politics Central Europe A close associate of Moldova’s former Russian air strikes in Syria are prime minister, Vlad Filat, has testi- costing Moscow up to $4mn per day, Despite Andrzej Duda's party promising fied that Filat is the indirect owner of data collated for The Moscow Times by increased spending in the election cam- Caravita and Business Estate – two key a defence think-tank showed. Russia paign, austerity is alive and well in the companies involved in the country's has already spent some $80mn-$115mn Polish presidential palace. The Belgian $1bn bank fraud. Prosecutors could since strikes began on September 30. press reported sniffily that Duda served ask up to 10 years in prison for Filat a €12 bottle of wine to King Philippe based on current evidence. during a state visit. Eurasia Macedonia’s four major political Latvia plans to build a fence on its parties failed to agree on further The Kazakh parliament approved a border with Russia, in order, it claims, to steps in the implementation of the law allowing foreigners to be hired restrict illegal border crossings. The 90km July agreement that resolved the into the state apparatus, which will fence is part of an upgrade project for secu- country’s political crisis. Johannes come into force on January 1, 2016. rity along the 270km border. The interior Hahn, EU commissioner in charge of EU Foreigners will not be civil servants, ministry insists the project is not connected expansion, said he was disap pointed but will work on a contractual basis.
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