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Astra International (ASII IJ) Maintain Steadily Improving

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Astra International (ASII IJ) Maintain Steadily Improving Equity Research Company Update Thursday,13 August 2020 BUY Astra International (ASII IJ) Maintain Steadily improving Last price (IDR) 5,400 From the recent virtual meeting, Astra Int’l (ASII) is preparing to further raise Target Price (IDR) 6,700 its automotive production by operating two shifts in August 2020 while remaining cautious given the uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 Upside/Downside +24.1% pandemic. As such, we expect a steady improvement in car sales in the Previous Target Price (IDR) 5,600 coming months of 2020. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR6,700 (SOTP valuation) as we roll over our valuation to 2021 and fine tune our forecasts. Stock Statistics Sector Automotive Preparing to operate two shifts for automotive manufacturing. After the relaxation of large-scale social distancing restrictions (PSBB) in June 2020, the Bloomberg Ticker ASII IJ company resumed its manufacturing facilities (at a slow pace and with low No of Shrs (mn) 40,484 capacity) and its dealerships. While Astra remains cautious amid uncertainty Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 218,611/14,811 in regard to the Covid-19 pandemic denting purchasing power, the company is preparing to operate two shifts for automotive production in August 2020 Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 244.6/16.6 given hopes of a steady recovery in car demand and in anticipation of the Major shareholders (%) depletion of car stocks at dealers. Astra indicated healthy car inventory for the month of August 2020. Jardine Cycle & Carriage 50.1 Covid-19 hit consumer behavior in regard to auto purchases. The Covid-19 Estimated free float 49.9 pandemic has affected consumer behavior in regard to auto purchases, especially first-time buyers. Before Covid-19, first time buyers accounted for EPS Consensus (IDR) about 60 – 70% of total sales, while after Covid-19, first time buyers only accounted for about 35 – 40% due to the weak purchasing power amid the 2020F 2021F 2022F current challenging economic conditions and with automotive leasing Danareksa 399.6 433.5 496.2 companies being more prudent in selecting customers in order to reduce financial risks. Consensus 377.8 443.0 524.4 Danareksa/Cons 5.8 (2.1) (5.4) Further improvements in monthly car sales in 2H20. The relaxation of PSBB has led to a recovery in car demand since June 2020. And with Astra preparing ASII relative to JCI Index to increase automotive production in August 2020, we expect a steady improvement in domestic car sales in the coming months. In July 2020, domestic car sales volume (wholesales) went up by 100.3% mom to 25,283 units with retail sales volume jumping by 19.9% mom to 35,799 units. For 2021, given recovery in economic conditions, we expect a further increase in car sales volume (+30.0% yoy). Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR6,700 (based on SOTP valuation) as we roll over our valuation to 2021 while fine tuning our forecasts post the 1H20 results (for which we cut our estimates for 2W sales volume, revenues from IT and infrastructure & the logistics business and the equity income portion). We continue to like the company given expectations of a further recovery in domestic car sales volume in 2H20 and 2021. The stock is currently trading at - 1.5SD. Our new TP implies 15.5x 2021F PE. Source : Bloomberg Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue (IDRbn) 239,205 237,166 188,668 214,713 233,087 EBITDA (IDRbn) 35,527 37,786 27,995 32,949 35,936 EBITDA Growth (%) 29.8 6.4 (25.9) 17.7 9.1 Net profit (IDRbn) 21,673 21,707 16,177 17,551 20,088 EPS (IDR) 535.4 536.2 399.6 433.5 496.2 EPS growth (%) 15.0 0.2 (25.5) 8.5 14.4 BVPS (IDR) 3,382.8 3,652.0 3,783.5 4,017.3 4,296.7 DPS (IDR) 190.0 211.1 268.1 199.8 216.8 x Stefanus Darmagiri PER (x) 10.1 10.1 13.5 12.5 10.9 PBV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530 Dividend yield (%) 3.5 3.9 5.0 3.7 4.0 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 7.6 9.5 7.8 7.0 Source : ASII, Danareksa Estimates www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Preserving cash while lowering capex. In the current business environment, the company stated that cash preservation was very important. Hence, the company has not made any decision yet on future investments using the proceeds from the divestment of a 44.6% stake in Bank Permata (BNLI) worth IDR16.8tn completed in May 2020. Astra has indicated that the divestment proceeds will be used for investment purposes related to its main business. Also, to preserve cash in the current climate, the company has lowered its 2020 capex target to around IDR10tn, which is half that of previous years’ capex of around IDR20 – 22tn. Better-than-expected sales volume from the new launching of Corolla Cross. Last week, Toyota Astra Motor (TAM) launched Toyota Corolla Cross in the medium SUV market in a bid to tap the SUV market, which has shown remarkable growth in recent years with a higher contribution of 17% in 2019 from 9% in 2015. With targeted monthly sales between 200 – 300 units and a price range of between IDR458 – 498mn, Toyota Corolla Cross is expected to compete with Honda CR-V and Mazda CX-5. After a week since its launch, (between 6 and 11 August 2020) the management indicated better-than- expected sales for this new model, especially the Hybrid models. www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2 Exhibit 5. Comparison between Toyota Corolla Cross Comparison Toyota Corolla Cross Honda CRV Mazda CX-5 Dimension Dimension (LxWxH) mm 4,460 x 1,825 x 1,620 4,585 x 1,855 x 1,679 4,550 x 1,840 x 1,595 Wheelbase mm 2,640 2,660 2,700 Tread Front/Rear mm 1,559 / 1,571 1,598 / 1,679 1,595 / 1,595 Tires & Wheels 225/50 R18 235/60 R18 225/55 R19 Engine Engine cc 1,798 1.5L Turbo: 1,498; 2.0L: 1,997 2,488 Compression Ratio 1.8V: 10.0:1; Hybrid: 13.0:1 1.5L: 10.3:1; 2.0L: 10.6:1 13.0:1 Max Power PS/rpm 1.8V: 140/6,400; Hybrid: 98/5,200 1.5L: 190/5,600; 2.0L: 155/6,500 190/6,000 Max Torque Nm/rpm 1.8V: 177/4,000; Hybrid: 142/3,600 1.5L: 240/2,000-5,000; 2.0L: 189/4,300 251/3,250 Price and sales Price Range IDR mn 457.8 - 497.8 463.9 - 539.4 508.8 - 588.8 Total wholesales (1H20) units n/a 2,529 329 Total wholesales (2019) units n/a 10,395 1,759 Source: Gaikindo, Toyota Astra Motor, Honda Prospect Motor and Mazda Indonesia Exhibit 6. Corolla Cross to fill the gap on ASII’s SUV market at price range IDR400 – 500bn IDRmn/unit Daihatsu Terios (1.5L) 212 266 Toyota Rush (1.5L) 255 277 Toyota Corolla Cross (1.8L) 458 498 Toyota C-HR (1.8L) 511 548 Toyota Fortuner (2.4L/2.7L) 493 685 150 250 350 450 550 650 Source: Toyota Astra Motor Exhibit 7. Change in our forecasts New Previous Change (%) 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2020F 2021F 2022F Domestic 4W sales (units) 600,000 780,000 858,000 600,000 780,000 858,000 0.0 0.0 0.0 Astra's 4W sales (units) 318,000 413,400 454,740 318,000 413,400 454,740 0.0 0.0 0.0 Astra's 4W mkt share (%) 53 53 53 53 53 53 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic 2W sales (units) 3,800,000 4,940,000 5,434,000 4,541,201 5,903,561 6,493,917 (16.3) (16.3) (16.3) Astra's 2W sales (units) 2,926,000 3,754,400 4,129,840 3,405,901 4,427,671 4,870,438 (14.1) (15.2) (15.2) Astra's 2W mktshare (%) 77 76 76 75 75 75 2.0 1.0 1.0 Revenue (IDR bn) 188,668 214,713 233,087 196,431 224,173 242,610 (4.0) (4.2) (3.9) EBITDA (IDR bn) 27,995 32,949 35,936 30,026 34,668 37,408 (6.8) (5.0) (3.9) Equity Income 3,342 5,408 6,110 5,176 6,419 7,165 (35.4) (15.8) (14.7) Net Profit (IDR bn) 16,177 17,551 20,088 14,957 19,242 21,548 8.2 (8.8) (6.8) Source: Danareksa Sekuritas estimates www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 3 Exhibit 8. SOTP Valuation Equity value Contribution Equity value, Division attributed to to total Rp bn ASII, Rp bn value, % Automotive Astra Parent Company 98,574 98,574 36.2 Astra Otoparts 6,158 4,927 1.8 Sub-total 103,500 38.0 Heavy equipment United Tractors 154,024 91,644 33.7 Sub-total 91,644 33.7 Agribusiness Astra Agro Lestari 24,059 19,170 7.0 Sub-total 19,170 7.0 Financial services Astra Sedaya Finance 20,507 17,664 6.5 Federal International Finance 28,788 28,788 10.6 Sub-total 46,452 17.1 Others Astra Graphia 931 715 0.3 Others 10,553 10,553 3.9 Sub-total 11,269 4.1 Total equity value 272,035 100.0 Shares, mn 40,484 NAV/share, Rp 6,700 Source: Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Exhibit 9.
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