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MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 1 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 1 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 2 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 Contents 04 Kata Sambutan Direktur Utama Analisis Emiten MNC Group MNC Sekuritas 06 Analisis Makroekonomi 55 PT Adaro Energy Tbk 71 MNC College Wisnu Wardana 57 PT Astra International Tbk 99 PT MNC Land Tbk 10 Investment Strategy 59 PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 61 PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk 13 Bond Market Update 63 PT XL Axiata Tbk Appendixes 65 PT Gudang Garam Tbk 17 SGX Indonesia Equity Futures 67 PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk 103 MNCS Stock Universe 69 PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk 104 Data Obligasi 75 PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk 105 Heat Map dan Nilai Tukar Analisis Sektoral 77 PT Blue Bird Tbk 106 Kalender Ekonomi 80 PT GMF Aero Asia Tbk 21 Sektor Consumer 107 Special Thanks 83 PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk 24 Sektor Telecommunication 85 PT Hartadinata Abadi Tbk 27 Sektor Metal Mining 87 PT London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk 30 Sektor Automotive 89 PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi 35 Sektor Banking Sidomuncul Tbk 38 Sektor Coal Mining 91 PT Waskita Beton Precast Tbk 41 Sektor Plantation 44 Sektor Construction 47 Sektor Cement 50 Sektor Property 53 HARA - Empowering Billions 94 Expert Talks Session Daniel Nainggolan 73 Expert Talks Session 97 Tips & Tricks from Investment Figure 102 Learn from Millenials Adrianto Djokosoetono Sukarto Bujung LastDay Production 3 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 Sambutan Direktur Utama MNCS Compendium Para nasabah MNC Sekuritas yang terhormat, Tidak terasa tahun 2018 akan segera berlalu. Semangat nasionalisme terasa semakin kental setelah Indonesia sukses menjadi tuan rumah dalam kompetisi olahraga Asian Games 2018. Momen tersebut telah menjadi pemersatu bangsa, bukan hanya bagi pecinta olahraga semata, tetapi bagi seluruh kalangan masyarakat. Dalam ajang tersebut, President Director MNC Sekuritas: Indonesia juga berhasil memantapkan posisi di peringkat ke-4 dalam perolehan medali Asian Games 2018. Tentunya Susy Meilina ini merupakan suatu kebanggaan dan kehormatan bagi kita. MNC Sekuritas Institution Research: Di tengah hingar bingar dan gegap gempita Asian Games Thendra Crisnanda 2018, ekonomi Indonesia justru diuji dengan berbagai faktor global yang mempengaruhi pasar modal di Tanah I Made Adi Saputra Air. Krisis Turki serta perang dagang antara China dan Victoria Venny Amerika Serikat membawa dampak bagi pergerakan IHSG Rr. Nurulita Harwaningrum di kuartal III-2018. Sukisnawati Puspitasari Dalam edisi ketiga MNCS Compendium, kami mengangkat tema “The Last Defense”, yang Muhamad Rudy Setiawan mengupas tentang bagaimana ekonomi Indonesia bertahan di tengah gempuran sentimen yang beredar, terutama dari luar negeri. Selain itu, warna baru juga kami tambahkan dalam Krestanti Nugrahane edisi kali ini melalui Expert Talk Session dengan Direktur PT Blue Bird Tbk (BIRD) dan Direktur Ikhsan Hadi Santoso PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA), Inspiring Investment Figure bersama Direktur Utama PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk (HOKI) serta What’s On bersama dengan YouTuber Last Day Production (LDP). Selain itu, kami juga berkolaborasi dengan Singapore Exchange (SGX) dan Special Contributor: HARA Token, salah satu perusahaan blockhain di Indonesia yang memberikan informasi ter- Wisnu Wardana update terkait perkembangan alternatif investasi saat ini. Adrianto Djokosoetono Berbicara sekilas mengenai industri pasar modal Indonesia pada kuartal III-2018, tercatat IHSG Daniel Nainggolan mengalami penurunan sebesar 6,3% secara YTD ke level 5.931 pada 14 September 2018 setelah sebelumnya mencatatkan momentum peningkatan terbaiknya di level 6.689 (all time Jessica Tanoesoedibjo high) pada 19 Februari 2018. Investor asing terpantau terus melakukan profit taking dengan Sukarto Bujung penjualan bersih senilai Rp50,18 triliun (per 31 Agustus 2018). Pelemahan IHSG disebabkan Singapore Exchange oleh kombinasi baik faktor eksternal dan internal. Hara Token Dalam kondisi tersebut, MNC Sekuritas tetap melihat adanya peluang dalam berinvestasi di LastDay Production pasar modal dengan melirik saham-saham yang nilainya sudah terdiskon dari harga wajarnya. Apalagi, program menabung saham MNC Sekuritas yaitu MNC GEMESIN Plus yang diluncurkan kembali pada pertengahan tahun 2018, memudahkan nasabah pemula dalam berlatih investasi Other Contributor: saham secara rutin setiap bulannya dengan tambahan manfaat perlindungan. Jacklyn Kosasih Kemudahan akses informasi seputar pasar modal dari MNC Sekuritas dapat diperoleh melalui Eldwin Harsono Lie 114 point of sales yang tersebar di berbagai kota di Indonesia. Selain membuka Galeri Investasi Raufik Raufani di beberapa universitas, MNC Sekuritas juga melebarkan sayap ke wilayah Sulawesi Tengah melalui Kantor Perwakilan Bursa Efek Indonesia Sulawesi Tengah yang berada di kota Palu. Nathania Antusiasme masyarakat untuk menjadi investor saham patut diacungi jempol. Target 40.000 Hasdevi Agrippina Dradjat nasabah MNC Sekuritas pada tahun 2018 sedikit lagi akan tercapai. Per 31 Agustus 2018, MNC Hans Tenny Latuheru Sekuritas telah mencatat hampir 39.000 nasabah per 31 Agustus 2018. Akhir kata, kami meyakini Anda adalah ujung tombak perusahaan. MNCS Compendium ini kami persembahkan bagi Anda. Semoga dapat menambah pengetahuan dan menjadi salah satu acuan Anda dalam berinvestasi bersama kami. Selamat membaca! Layouter & Cover: Giant Leap Susy Meilina Direktur Utama PT MNC Sekuritas 4 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 5 Macroeconomic Update MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 Riding The Waves mengenai perkembangan ekonomi Indonesia maupun global di tahun 2018/2019. Review Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2018 : GDP Bertumbuh 5,27% pada 2Q18 Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2Q18 yang sempat menyentuh 5,27%, merupakan pertumbuhan ekonomi tertinggi sejak tahun 2015. Salah satu faktor yang mendorong pertumbuhan tersebut adalah realisasi pengeluaran pemerintah bidang sosial yang mencapai Rp27 triliun. Namun, poin penting yang perlu diperhatikan selama berlangsungnya perekonomian pada 1H18 adalah kontribusi perdagangan negara terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (Gross Domestic Product/GDP). Pada Juni 2018, Indonesia mencatatkan surplus emerintah perlu merangkul pihak teratas sebagai Ekonom dengan proyeksi perdagangan bulanan untuk kedua “Pswasta untuk meningkatkan makroekonomi terbaik sejak tahun kalinya sepanjang 1H18 yaitu sebesar devisa melalui investasi di negara lain 2017. Beliau saat ini menjadi Economist/ USD1,7 miliar (vs defisit USD1,5 miliar demi memperkuat fundamental nilai Bond Analyst di PT Bank Danamon pada Mei 2018). Hal tersebut terjadi tukar Rupiah”- Wisnu Wardana Indonesia Tbk (BDMN) sejak tahun 2016. karena ekspor non-minyak dan gas dapat Sebelumnya beliau juga berpengalaman mempertahankan permintaan volumenya isnu Wardana merupakan tokoh sebagai Economic Research Head di di tengah pelemahan harga CPO, WEkonom muda berbakat yang PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (2012-2014), sementara ekspor batubara dan produk saat ini telah masuk dalam jajaran Top serta Economist and Bond Strategist di dasar manufaktur tetap cemerlang. Ekonom di Indonesia. Berkat ketepatan PT BNI Securities (2011-2012). Alumni Hal yang tidak terduga yakni berada dan ketajaman analisisnya dalam bidang Universitas Indonesia Jurusan Ekonomi pada sisi impor, dimana terjadi makroekonomi, beliau berhasil menjadi Internasional ini, mengawali karirnya penurunan volume impor minyak Top Forecaster dengan memenangkan di PT Bahana Securities (2008) dan PT mentah dan gas ditengah perbaikan tiga (3) dari enam (6) kategori dalam Perusahaan Pengelola Aset (PPA) sebagai ekonomi negara pengimpor minyak ajang The Focus Economics Analyst Business Analyst (2009-2011). Tim MNCS ini. Adapun penurunan impor minyak Forecast Award pada tahun 2017. Compendium 3rd edition berkesempatan tersebut didorong oleh investasi strategis Rating Bloomberg International juga untuk melakukan wawancara dengan pemerintah, dimana domestik telah menempatkan beliau pada peringkat Wisnu dalam memaparkan pandangannya menambah produksi minyak jadi (refined Kontribusi Perdagangan (Ekspor-Impor) Terhadap GDP Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) dan Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Indonesia Sumber : BPS, BDMN Sumber : BI, BPS, BDMN 6 MNCS Compendium / III / September 2018 Macroeconomic Update Proyeksi Utang Negara yang Jatuh Tempo (IDR Triliun) Kepemilikan Asing atas Obligasi Negara Indonesia Pada 1H18 IDR Kurs Lainnya Oceania; 0,1% Tidak Australia; 0,7% Teridentifikasi; 0,0% 145 Amerika Utara; 142 24,3% 127 146 114 151 Eropa; 44,5% 97 94 68 112 259 144 26 168 157 164 153 Asia; 30,4% 125 131 126 134 104 100 24 48 29 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan, BI Sumber : Kementerian Keuangan, BIS, CEIC, BDMN oil) untuk memenuhi sebagian kebutuhan Dilema Potensi Kenaikan BBM, Tingkat dimana pada periode yang bersamaan, minyak nasional. Kebijakan perdagangan Inflasi dan Jatuh Tempo Utang Negara tingkat suku bunga deposito maupun yang diputuskan pemerintah merupakan di Tahun 2019 kredit masing-masing mengalami langkah yang tepat, menilai bahwa struktur Memasuki tahun Pemilu, Wisnu menyakini kenaikan sebesar 40bps dan 9-12bps. perdagangan negara lebih produktif dan bahwa siapapun yang terpilih nantinya Wisnu memprediksikan bahwa akan efisien apabila melihat ekspor atas barang menjadi Presiden RI tahun 2019, akan terjadi peningkatan 7DRRR lagi hingga hasil manufaktur mengalami peningkatan. menghadapi dilema yang sama yaitu: 1) ke level 6,00% pada FY18E seiring Strategi pembayaran dan pembiayaan dengan prediksi kenaikan Fed Fund GDP Diproyeksikan
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