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American Interests in South Asia: American Interests in South Asia: Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India

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American Interests in South Asia: American Interests in South Asia: Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India and Pakistan, Afghanistan, in Strategy a Grand Building in South Asia: Interests American American Interests in South Asia: Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India Aspen Policy Books is a series devoted to identifying and circulating critical new thinking on national security challenges. This book is a collection of papers commissioned for the 2010 Aspen Strategy Group workshop. This bipartisan, high-level examination of American interests in the region outlines geopolitical realities that challenge stability in the region and identifies policy strategies to confront them. The papers enclosed address such topics as the balance of power in South Asia, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, an evaluation of American foreign aid, relations between India and Pakistan, and an analysis of the future in this incredibly important region. Contributors include: Samina Ahmed (International Crisis Group), Nancy Birdsall (Center for Global Development), Robert D. Blackwill (Council on Foreign Relations), James Dobbins (The RAND Corporation), John Dowdy (McKinsey and Company), Wren Elhai (Center for Global Development), Andrew Erdmann (McKinsey and Company), Nathaniel Fick (Center for a New American Security), Molly Kinder (Center for Global Development), Clare Lockhart (Institute for State Effectiveness), Anja Manuel (The Rice Hadley Group), Michael O’Hanlon (The Brookings Institution), and Meghan O’Sullivan (Harvard University). www.aspeninstitute.org/asg AMERICAN INTERESTS IN SOUTH ASIA: WASHINGTON, DC Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India FSC LOGO HERE FOREWORD BY JOSEPH S. NYE & BRENT SCOWCROFT EDITED BY Nicholas Burns & Jonathon Price 11-002 American Interests in South Asia: Building a Grand Strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India FOREWORD BY JOSEPH S. NYE & BRENT SCOWCROFT EDITED BY NICHOLAS BURNS & JONATHON PRICE Copyright © 2011 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Published in the United States of America in 2011 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-540-4 Wye Publication Number: 11/002 Cover Design by: Genee Presta, Steve Johnson Interior Layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group CO-CHAIRMEN Stephen E. Biegun Vice President Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Ford Motor Company University Distinguished Service Professor John F. Kennedy School of Government Robert Blackwill Harvard University Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy Brent Scowcroft Council on Foreign Relations President The Scowcroft Group, Inc. Susan Collins Senator United States Senate DIRECTOR Richard Danzig Nicholas Burns Chairman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy Center for a New American Security and International Politics John F. Kennedy School of Government John M. Deutch Harvard University Institute Professor Massachusetts Institute of Technology DEPUTY DIRECTOR Richard A. Falkenrath Jonathon Price Principal The Chertoff Group Deputy Director Aspen Strategy Group Peter D. Feaver Professor of Political Science and Public Policy MEMBERS Duke University Madeleine K. Albright Chair Dianne Feinstein Albright Stonebridge Group Senator United States Senate Graham Allison Stephen Friedman Director Chairman Belfer Center for Science and Stone Point Capital International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Michael Green Harvard University Senior Adviser and Japan Chair, CSIS Associate Professor, Zoë Baird Georgetown University President Markle Foundation Richard N. Haass President Council on Foreign Relations Chuck Hagel Thomas Pritzker Chairman Chairman and CEO Atlantic Council The Pritzker Organization John Hamre Jack Reed President and CEO Senator Center for Strategic and International Studies United States Senate Jane Harman Mitchell B. Reiss Congresswoman President United States House of Representatives Washington College David Ignatius Condoleezza Rice Columnist and Associate Editor Professor of Political Science The Washington Post Stanford University Nicholas Kristof Carla Anne Robbins Columnist Deputy Editorial Page Editor The New York Times The New York Times Richard G. Lugar David Sanger Senator Chief Washington Correspondent United States Senate The New York Times Leo S. Mackay, Jr. Wendy R. Sherman Vice President Vice Chair Lockheed Martin Corporation Albright Stonebridge Group Sylvia Mathews Burwell Marin Strmecki President Senior Vice President Global Development Program Smith Richardson Foundation Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Strobe Talbott Sam Nunn President Co-Chairman and CEO The Brookings Institution Nuclear Threat Initiative Jessica Tuchman Mathews Thomas O’Gara President Chairman Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The O’Gara Group Fareed Zakaria Meghan L. O’Sullivan Editor-At-Large Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of TIME Magazine International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Dov S. Zakheim Harvard University Senior Adviser Center for Strategic and International Studies William J. Perry Professor Philip Zelikow Stanford University White Burkett Miller Professor of History University of Virginia John Podesta President and CEO Robert Zoellick Center for American Progress President The World Bank Acknowledgements Nicholas Burns Jonathon Price Director, Aspen Strategy Group Deputy Director, Aspen Strategy Group rom August sixth through August eleventh, 2010, the Aspen Strategy Group F met in Aspen, Colorado, to examine American interests in South Asia; specifically, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The participants—comprised of government officials, policy makers, academics, journalists, corporate leaders, and foreign policy experts—gathered to discuss the national security challenges and diplomatic realities for the United States within South Asia. This diverse group of ASG members, invited guests, and experts ensured a wide range of perspectives and bipartisan dialogue. The publication you are reading presents the eight policy papers that helped set the scene for our discussions throughout the week in Aspen. It also includes the second annual Ernest May lecture delivered by Robert Blackwill and a piece written by ASG member Meghan O’Sullivan that lays out some of her observations after the week in Aspen. As with all our work, this meeting was facilitated through the collaborative efforts of a number of organizations and individuals to which the Aspen Strategy Group is deeply grateful. Our generous supporters of this year’s workshop include the Markle Foundation, the Resnick Family Foundation, McKinsey and Company, the Margot and Thomas Pritzker Family Foundation, The Greenwald Foundation, Mr. Howard E. Cox, Mr. Simon Pinniger, Ms. Carolyne Roehm, the Hewlett Foundation, Mr. Terry Turkat, the Stanton Foundation, Leah Zell Wanger, and Mr. Stephen Freidman. We would also like to thank our Brent Scowcroft Award Fellows, Annie Moulton, Carles Castello-Catchot, and Elsa T. Khwaja, as well as Julie Song for their important contributions to this initiative. We look forward to following their careers as the next generation of foreign policy leaders and experts. Jennifer Parker provided her invaluable proofreading and editing skills, and we are deeply grateful. Finally, our efforts would not have been possible without the support of our consummate co-chairs, Joseph Nye and Brent Scowcroft. Their leadership, vision, and life’s work make this group possible. Contents Foreword by ASG Co-Chairmen . .9 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. & Brent Scowcroft Preface by ASG Director . .11 Nicholas Burns Part 1 THE REGIONAL BALANCE OF POWER IN SOUTH ASIA The Second Annual Ernest May Memorial Lecture . .19 Afghanistan and the Uses of History: Insights from Ernest May Robert D. Blackwill CHAPTER 1 Where East Meets West . .35 James Dobbins Part 2 THE MISSION IN AFGHANISTAN: IS THE NEW STRATEGY WORKING? CHAPTER 2 Defining Victory: Assessing Military Efforts and Measuring Outcomes in Afghanistan . .49 Nathaniel Fick CHAPTER 3 A War we Might Still Win: Why our Odds are Still Good in Afghanistan . .63 Michael O’Hanlon CHAPTER 4 Afghanistan: Framing the Context and Options for the Way Forward . .83 Clare Lockhart Part 3 IS AMERICAN FOREIGN ASSISTANCE WORKING IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN? CHAPTER 5 Private Sector Development in Afghanistan: The Doubly Missing Middle . .109 John Dowdy & Andrew Erdmann CHAPTER 6 Development Aid in Pakistan: The Best Long-Term Foreign Policy Tool in the U.S. Arsenal . .129 Nancy Birdsall, Wren Elhai, and Molly Kinder Part 4 INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY CHAPTER 7 Pakistan’s Relations with India: Implications for U.S. Policy . .147 Samina Ahmed CHAPTER 8 A Rising Brand: India’s Emerging Power, Implications for South Asia and U.S. Policy . .159 Anja Manuel Part 5 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS CHAPTER 9 The Way Ahead in Afghanistan . .179 Meghan O’Sullivan Foreword 9 Foreword by ASG Co-Chairmen Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Brent Scowcroft ASG Co-Chairman ASG Co-Chairman hen the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan began a decade ago in response Wto the September 11th attacks, few imagined south Asia would become one of the most important strategic regions for American interests abroad. The initial objective was to remove the Taliban from power and deprive al Qaeda of a safe haven from which to keep spreading terror. However, the allied mission on Afghan soil evolved to a complex counterinsurgency, state-building operation that is proving hard to accomplish. Security, economic,
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