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U.S. AND DISTILLATE UPDATE

Published SEPTEMBER 29, 2021

PRICE TRENDS – Monday, September 27 Gasoline According to the U.S. Retail Gasoline

Energy % Change % Change Change from Change from Change from Sep 27 Sep 20 Year Ago from Last from Last Record Record Date Last Week Last Year Record Information Week Year Administration U.S. Average $3.175 $3.184 $2.169 -0.9 cents -0.3% $1.01 46.4% $4.114 7/7/2008 -93.9 cents (EIA), the average REGIONS East Coast $3.077 $3.086 $2.108 -0.9 cents -0.3% 96.9 cents 46.0% $4.079 7/7/2008 -$1.002 U.S. retail price for New $3.095 $3.101 $2.114 -0.6 cents -0.2% 98.1 cents 46.4% $4.143 7/7/2008 -$1.048 regular grade of Central Atlantic $3.239 $3.241 $2.257 -0.2 cents -0.1% 98.2 cents 43.5% $4.115 7/7/2008 -87.6 cents gasoline fell this Lower Atlantic $2.974 $2.987 $2.016 -1.3 cents -0.4% 95.8 cents 47.5% $4.033 7/7/2008 -$1.059 Midwest $3.036 $3.065 $2.059 -2.9 cents -0.9% 97.7 cents 47.5% $4.066 7/14/2008 -$1.030 week, down by 0.9 Gulf Coast $2.840 $2.807 $1.836 3.3 cents 1.2% $1.00 54.7% $3.971 7/14/2008 -$1.131 cents (0.3 percent) Rocky Mountain $3.578 $3.599 $2.296 -2.1 cents -0.6% $1.28 55.8% $4.105 7/21/2008 -52.7 cents from the previous West Coast $3.919 $3.929 $2.817 -1.0 cents -0.3% $1.10 39.1% $4.460 6/23/2008 -54.1 cents STATES Monday’s price to California $4.217 $4.217 $3.069 0.0 cents 0.0% $1.15 37.4% $4.659 10/8/2012 -44.2 cents $3.175 per gallon. Colorado $3.519 $3.534 $2.248 -1.5 cents -0.4% $1.27 56.5% $4.030 7/14/2008 -51.1 cents This week’s price Florida $3.018 $3.056 $2.048 -3.8 cents -1.2% 97.0 cents 47.4% $4.057 7/7/2008 -$1.039 Massachusetts $3.076 $3.079 $2.079 -0.3 cents -0.1% 99.7 cents 48.0% $4.066 7/7/2008 -99.0 cents was above the Minnesota $3.001 $2.991 $2.028 1.0 cents 0.3% 97.3 cents 48.0% $4.292 5/20/2013 -$1.291 year-ago price, up New York $3.218 $3.226 $2.170 -0.8 cents -0.2% $1.05 48.3% $4.281 7/7/2008 -$1.063 by $1.01 (46.4 Ohio $2.986 $3.103 $2.073 -11.7 cents -3.8% 91.3 cents 44.0% $4.112 5/2/2011 -$1.126 $2.802 $2.755 $1.811 4.7 cents 1.7% 99.1 cents 54.7% $3.966 7/14/2008 -$1.164 percent) from Washington $3.762 $3.781 $2.712 -1.9 cents -0.5% $1.05 38.7% $4.370 7/7/2008 -60.8 cents $2.169 per gallon. CITIES This price was 93.9 Boston $3.074 $3.074 $2.087 0.0 cents 0.0% 98.7 cents 47.3% $4.058 7/7/2008 -98.4 cents Chicago $3.342 $3.404 $2.309 -6.2 cents -1.8% $1.03 44.7% $4.470 3/26/2012 -$1.128 cents (22.8 Cleveland $3.040 $3.124 $2.112 -8.4 cents -2.7% 92.8 cents 43.9% $4.127 5/2/2011 -$1.087 percent) below the Denver $3.491 $3.515 $2.202 -2.4 cents -0.7% $1.29 58.5% $4.013 7/14/2008 -52.2 cents record price of $2.732 $2.736 $1.769 -0.4 cents -0.1% 96.3 cents 54.4% $3.915 7/21/2008 -$1.183 $4.199 $4.184 $3.043 1.5 cents 0.4% $1.16 38.0% $4.736 10/8/2012 -53.7 cents $4.114 per gallon Miami $3.039 $3.067 $2.073 -2.8 cents -0.9% 96.6 cents 46.6% $4.178 7/14/2008 -$1.139 set on 7/7/08. $3.187 $3.196 $2.088 -0.9 cents -0.3% $1.10 52.6% $4.179 7/7/2008 -99.2 cents San Francisco $4.322 $4.333 $3.203 -1.1 cents -0.3% $1.12 34.9% $4.675 10/8/2012 -35.3 cents Gasoline prices Seattle $3.902 $3.920 $2.831 -1.8 cents -0.5% $1.07 37.8% $4.355 6/23/2008 -45.3 cents Source: Information Administration were above $2.00 in all twenty-seven of the sub-areas monitored by the EIA, and were above $3.00 in twenty-two sub-areas. There were twenty-one areas that posted week-over-week price declines, while four posted increases. Ohio posted the largest decrease of 11.7 cents from last week, while Texas posted the largest increase of 4.7 cents. The average price for regular-grade gasoline for this week ranged from a low of $2.732 per gallon in Houston to a high of $4.322 per gallon in San Francisco.

Gasoline prices generally track crude prices; however, historically there has often been a lag before crude oil price changes are reflected in retail gasoline prices. Other factors can also affect this correlation such as seasonal factors, changes in supply or demand for gasoline, outages, and transportation problems.

Diesel According to the EIA, the U.S. Retail Diesel Prices average U.S. retail diesel % Change % Change Change from Change from Change from Sep 27 Sep 20 Year Ago from Last from Last Record Price Record Date price (including taxes) rose Last Week Last Year Record Week Year this week, up by 2.1 cents DIESEL (0.6 percent) from last week U.S. Average $3.406 $3.385 $2.394 2.1 cents 0.6% $1.01 42.3% $4.764 7/14/2008 -$1.358 REGIONS to $3.406 per gallon. The East Coast $3.371 $3.352 $2.473 1.9 cents 0.6% 89.8 cents 36.3% $4.822 7/14/2008 -$1.451 national average diesel New England $3.299 $3.300 $2.592 -0.1 cents 0.0% 70.7 cents 27.3% $4.889 7/14/2008 -$1.590 Central Atlantic $3.514 $3.496 $2.658 1.8 cents 0.5% 85.6 cents 32.2% $4.913 5/27/2008 -$1.399 price was above year-ago Lower Atlantic $3.288 $3.266 $2.323 2.2 cents 0.7% 96.5 cents 41.5% $4.777 7/14/2008 -$1.489 levels, up by $1.01 (42.3 Midwest $3.326 $3.290 $2.269 3.6 cents 1.1% $1.06 46.6% $4.698 7/14/2008 -$1.372 percent) from last year’s Gulf Coast $3.142 $3.119 $2.154 2.3 cents 0.7% 98.8 cents 45.9% $4.737 7/14/2008 -$1.595 Rocky Mountains $3.605 $3.629 $2.336 -2.4 cents -0.7% $1.27 54.3% $4.718 7/14/2008 -$1.113 price of $2.394 per gallon. West Coast $4.032 $4.026 $2.928 0.6 cents 0.1% $1.10 37.7% $4.909 7/14/2008 -87.7 cents It was $1.36 (28.5 percent) STATES California $4.339 $4.329 $3.236 1.0 cents 0.2% $1.10 34.1% $5.027 5/27/2008 -68.8 cents below the record price of Source: Energy Information Administration $4.764 per gallon set on 7/14/08. Diesel prices were down in one region of the U.S.: the Rocky Mountains (2.4 cents); and up in the following regions: the East Coast (1.9 cents), the Midwest (3.6 cents), the Gulf Coast (2.3 cents), the West Coast (0.6 cents); Diesel prices in California were up from last week by 1.0 cents to $4.339 per gallon.

Diesel prices generally track those of crude oil. The price of crude oil is the main factor in the price of , and fluctuations in the crude oil market greatly influence changes in diesel prices. Short-run factors that can cause divergences from this correlation include supply shortages resulting from refinery outages, transportation issues, adverse weather conditions, and pipeline problems.

Heating Oil According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, the national residential price fell in August, down by 4.8 cents (1.6 percent) from July's price of $2.980 per gallon to $2.932 per gallon. The current price was 77.1 cents (35.7 percent) above last year’s price of $2.161 per gallon, and $1.72 below the record price of $4.649 per gallon set in July 2008.

Crude Oil NYMEX crude prices were up by $5.16 from last week’s price to $75.45 per ($1.796 per gallon) on Monday. The current price is $34.85 per barrel (82.98 cents per gallon) above last year’s price of $40.60 per barrel ($0.97 per gallon). This week’s price was $69.84 per barrel ($1.66 per gallon) below the record price of $145.29 per barrel ($3.46 per gallon) set on 7/7/08.

Fluctuations in crude oil prices are the most significant cause of gasoline price swings over the long term. However, in the short term, the price of gasoline can also be affected by gasoline-specific supply and demand developments. Another factor affecting U.S. gasoline markets is the varying fuel specifications across the country. These specialized regional and local gasoline formulas reduce the flexibility of refiners and distributors to respond to supply disruptions.

REFINERY OPERATIONS – WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, September 24

According to the American Institute’s (API’s) Weekly Statistical Bulletin (WSB) data, the average daily input to rose this week by 22,000 from last week to a daily average of 15.9 million barrels. The estimated capacity utilization rate was at 87.6 percent, up by 0.1 percentage points from last week and up by 11.1 percentage points from last year’s utilization rate of 76.5 percent.

PRODUCTION LEVELS – WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, September 24 Gasoline Gasoline production fell by 85,000 barrels per day from last week to 9.6 million barrels per day. This was above last year’s production level by 390,000 barrels per day. Production of reformulated gasoline was up from last week by 53,000 barrels per day and production of conventional gasoline was down by 138,000 barrels per day. Production of conventional-type gasoline was below the five-year average by 1.1 percent.

Distillate Distillate fuel production rose by 162,000 barrels per day (3.6 percent) from last week to about 4.6 million barrels per day. This was up by 202,000 barrels per day from last year’s output of 4.4 million barrels per day. Approximately 99.1 percent of the low diesel was in the form of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD). Production of ULSD rose by 121,000 barrels per day (2.8 percent) from last week to 4.5 million barrels per day. ULSD production is up from last year by 3.4 percent. U.S. production of high sulfur distillate (heating oil) was up by 154.8 percent from last year’s production level.

U.S. Refinery Operations Week Ending Week Ending % Change from Last % Change from Last Average % Change from Year Ago Sep 24 Sep 17 Week Year 2016-2020 Average U.S. Industry Operations Gross Inputs 15,882 15,860 0.1% 14,237 11.6% 16,128 -1.5% Percent Operated 87.6 87.5 0.1% 76.5 14.5% 86.7 1.0% Total Gasoline Production (Million Barrels per day) U.S. Total 9.6 9.7 -0.9% 9.3 4.2% 9.8 -2.0% Reformulated 3.1 3.0 1.8% 2.8 8.3% 3.2 -4.0% Conventional 6.6 6.7 -2.0% 6.4 2.4% 6.7 -1.1% Distillate Fuel Oil Production (Million Barrels per day) U.S. Total 4.6 4.5 3.6% 4.4 4.6% 4.8 -4.0% Low Sulfur 4.5 4.4 3.1% 4.4 3.1% 4.7 -3.3% ULSD 4.5 4.4 2.8% 4.3 3.4% 4.5 -1.6% High Sulfur 0.1 0.1 35.4% 0.0 154.8% 0.1 -26.7% Source: API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin

INVENTORY LEVELS – WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, September 24 Gasoline According to the API’s WSB report, gasoline inventories rose this week from the prior week to 222.8 million barrels, an increase of 1.6 percent. Gasoline inventories were 2.5 percent lower than year ago levels and 2.5 percent lower than the five-year average. Gasoline blendstocks were up this week by 3.9 million (1.9 percent) and down by 1.2 million (0.6 percent) from last year’s levels. Stocks of RBOB were down from last year’s levels by 3.2 million.

U.S. Gasoline Inventories Week Ending Week Ending % Change from Last % Change from Last Average % Change from Year Ago Sep 24 Sep 17 Week Year 2016-2020 Average Total Gasoline Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 222.8 219.3 1.6% 228.6 -2.5% 228.5 -2.5% East Coast 55.4 55.3 0.1% 59.2 -6.4% 60.7 -8.8% New England 4.7 4.0 18.2% 4.6 1.1% 5.1 -8.9% Central Atlantic 28.2 29.7 -5.0% 31.2 -9.5% 32.8 -14.0% Lower Atlantic 22.5 21.7 3.7% 23.4 -3.7% 22.8 -1.2% Midwest 46.3 46.1 0.5% 46.8 -0.9% 50.5 -8.3% Gulf Coast 82.5 79.8 3.4% 84.4 -2.2% 81.1 1.7% Mountain 7.2 7.1 2.5% 7.5 -3.6% 7.3 -0.5% West Coast 31.4 31.0 1.3% 30.8 1.9% 28.9 8.7% Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) Inventories (Thousand Barrels) U.S. Total 19 17 11.8% 46 -58.7% 40 -53.0% East Coast 5 5 0.0% 28 -82.1% 24 -79.5% Midwest 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Gulf Coast 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Mountain 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% West Coast 14 12 16.7% 18 -22.2% 16 -12.5% Total Gasoline Blendstock Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 203.8 200.0 1.9% 205.1 -0.6% 204.4 -0.3% East Coast 52.0 51.9 0.3% 55.3 -5.9% 56.1 -7.3% Midwest 42.2 41.8 1.0% 40.2 5.1% 44.0 -4.1% Gulf Coast 74.9 72.2 3.7% 75.5 -0.7% 72.4 3.6% Mountain 5.8 5.6 2.4% 5.8 -0.6% 5.4 5.9% West Coast 28.9 28.4 1.6% 28.3 2.0% 26.5 9.2% Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 42.3 40.3 4.9% 45.5 -7.0% 45.6 -7.3% East Coast 15.0 12.9 16.0% 17.4 -13.9% 17.6 -14.9% Midwest 4.2 4.6 -8.3% 4.6 -7.3% 5.4 -21.7% Gulf Coast 10.3 8.9 15.1% 10.6 -3.4% 10.4 -1.4% Mountain 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% West Coast 12.9 13.9 -7.7% 13.0 -0.8% 12.2 5.0% Source: API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin

INVENTORY LEVELS (CONT’D) Distillate Fuel Oil U.S. total distillate inventories rose this week to 131.2 million barrels, up by 2.5 million barrels (1.9 percent) from last week, according to API’s WSB report. The current level was below the year-ago and below the 5-year average level, down by 24.5 percent and down by 11.6 percent respectively. This was 46.2 million barrels greater than the National Petroleum Council’s estimate of lower operational level of 85 million barrels. High sulfur distillate inventories were down by 10.1 percent from last year’s level of 9.5 million barrels. ULSD inventories were up this week by 2.4 million barrels to 119.4 million barrels.

U.S. Distillate Fuel Oil Data Week Ending Week Ending % Change from Last % Change from Last Average % Change from Year Ago Sep 24 Sep 17 Week Year 2016-2020 Average Total Distillate Fuel Oil Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 131.2 128.7 1.9% 173.9 -24.5% 148.5 -11.6% East Coast 40.1 39.7 1.0% 64.0 -37.4% 52.0 -23.0% New England 7.3 7.6 -3.0% 12.9 -43.1% 9.6 -24.0% Central Atlantic 21.5 21.6 -0.3% 36.8 -41.6% 30.1 -28.6% Lower Atlantic 11.2 10.6 6.4% 14.3 -21.4% 12.3 -8.5% Midwest 31.3 31.5 -0.6% 33.1 -5.5% 33.0 -5.2% Gulf Coast 42.9 41.7 2.9% 59.3 -27.6% 46.2 -7.0% Mountain 3.7 3.5 6.5% 4.4 -15.8% 3.9 -5.2% West Coast 13.2 12.4 6.8% 13.1 1.2% 13.4 -1.0% High Sulfur Distillate Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 8.5 8.5 0.9% 9.5 -10.1% 10.4 -17.7% East Coast 2.8 2.8 1.9% 3.2 -11.3% 3.8 -25.3% New England 0.1 0.1 11.6% 0.4 -81.7% 0.9 -91.1% Central Atlantic 1.9 2.0 -2.4% 2.0 -4.7% 2.2 -13.2% Lower Atlantic 0.9 0.8 11.9% 0.8 9.4% 0.7 15.5% Midwest 0.4 0.4 3.9% 0.5 -11.1% 0.6 -32.3% Gulf Coast 4.6 4.7 -2.4% 5.2 -10.8% 5.2 -11.1% Mountain 0.0 0.0 -2.9% 0.1 -64.5% 0.1 -54.7% West Coast 0.7 0.5 21.7% 0.6 12.7% 0.7 -9.6% Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel Inventories (Million Barrels) U.S. Total 119.4 117.1 2.0% 161.0 -25.8% 132.9 -10.1% East Coast 36.1 35.9 0.7% 59.8 -39.6% 45.6 -20.8% New England 7.3 7.5 -3.1% 12.5 -41.8% 7.3 -0.4% Central Atlantic 18.6 18.7 -0.4% 33.9 -45.1% 26.9 -30.9% Lower Atlantic 10.3 9.7 5.8% 13.4 -23.6% 11.4 -10.1% Midwest 30.1 30.5 -1.3% 32.3 -6.7% 31.9 -5.7% Gulf Coast 37.5 35.9 4.5% 52.7 -28.8% 39.4 -4.8% Mountain 3.6 3.3 6.6% 4.2 -14.6% 3.7 -4.2% West Coast 12.1 11.4 5.9% 12.1 0.4% 12.3 -1.1% Source: API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin

IMPORTS LEVELS– WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, September 24 Gasoline Imports of finished gasoline were down by 80,000 barrels per day to 172,000 barrels per day this week. Imports of gasoline blending components were down by 61,000 barrels per day to 764,000 barrels per day.

Distillate Fuel Oil U.S. distillate imports rose by 121,000 barrels per day from last week to 290,000 barrels per day. ULSD imports were up for the week by 121,000 barrels per day (71.6 percent) to 290,000 barrels per day.

U.S. Import Levels (Thousand Barrels per day) % Change from Last % Change from Last Average % Change from Week Ending Week Ending Year Ago Sep 24 Sep 17 Week Year 2016-2020 Average Total Motor Gasoline U.S. Total 936 1077 -13.1% 700 33.7% 806 16.1% Finished MoGas 172 252 -31.7% 215 -20.0% 111 55.2% Blending Comp. 764 825 -7.4% 485 57.5% 695 9.9% Distillate Fuel Oil U.S. Total 290 169 71.6% 285 1.8% 139 108.0% Low Sulfur 290 169 71.6% 285 1.8% 117 147.9% ULSD 290 169 71.6% 285 1.8% 117 147.9% High Sulfur 0 0 n/a 0 n/a 22 -100.0% Source: API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin

MONTHLY DATA - Aug 2021 Gasoline The latest available API information indicates that gasoline deliveries (a measure of demand) for Aug 2021 rose by 11.3 percent from the prior year, to average 9.5 million barrels per day. Year to date for 2019, gasoline demand was up by 9.9 percent, to average 8.8 million barrels per day.

Distillate Fuel Oil Distillate Fuel deliveries for Aug 2021 rose by 10.6 percent to 4.1 million barrels per day. Year to date for 2021, distillate fuel demand was up by 6.1 percent, to average 4.0 million barrels per day.

API Monthly Data Aug Aug % Change YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % Change 2021 2020

Gasoline 9,491 8,524 11.3% 8,778 7,985 9.9% Distillate Fuel 4,055 3,668 10.6% 3,952 3,726 6.1% Production (Thousand Barrels) Gasoline 9,855 9,312 5.8% 9,436 8,608 9.6% Distillate Fuel 4,799 4,823 -0.5% 4,614 4,875 -5.4%

API Monthly Data Aug July Aug % Change % Change 2021 2021 2020 (Month Ago) (Year Ago) Stocks (Million Barrels) Gasoline 224.3 229.9 237.5 -2.4% -5.6% Distillate Fuel 135.4 139.3 179.8 -2.8% -24.7% Source: API's Weekly Statistical Bulletin

For more information, contact Manyi Ren, [email protected]