2013/3/27
"Future Climate Change and Sea Acknowledgments Level Rise Adaptation Strategies around Tokyo Bay" • The work presented today is a summary of work done in collaboration with other people: Hiroshi Takagi, Tomoya Shibayama, Sayaka Hoshino, Christian Webersik, amongst others
Miguel Esteban Associate Professor The University of Tokyo
Motivation for this research My Objective Today (I)
• Everybody talks about climate changes, its effects, etc. • There are many major challenges facing port construction in the future in the light of climate • However, very little work has been done on climate change and ports change
• Need to try to understand how much climate change is going to Sea level rise cost to ports • Raise ground level • Reinforce breakwaters
Increase in typhoon intensity • Port operation (downtime) • Reinforce breakwaters
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My Objective Today (II)
• I will leave the differential equations out Greater Tokyo and the Ports • Today I will present ONLY results and some around Tokyo Bay thoughts
• If you want to read the methodology, I am happy to send you the papers.
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Greater Tokyo Area Tokyo Bay Ports • A 2007 UN estimate puts the • A number of major ports population at 35,676,000 (world's located around the bay most populous metropolitan area). Tokyo Chiba Port • Area of 13,500 km² , population Port density 2,642 person/km² - twice • Yokohama was first that of Bangladesh international port in the Kawasaki Port th • area, in 19 century Largest metropolitan economy in Yokohama Port the world, with a total GDP Kisarazu (nominal) of approximately US$1.9 Port • Almost the entire Bay trillion (¥165 trillion) in 2008 (it Yokosuka Port circumference is reclaimed would be the world’s 9th biggest land now, with large areas economy*) dedicated to port installations *ahead of Russia or Spain (GDP of Italy in 2011: US$2.1 trillion, India, 1.89 trillion, Russia: 1.85 trillion )
Port of Tokyo Port of Yokohama (I) • one of the largest Japanese ports • one of the largest ports in the Pacific Ocean basin • annual traffic capacity of around 100 million tonnes of cargo and 4,500,000 TEU's. • 30,000 employees • more than 32,000 ships every year.
Port of Yokohama (II) Port of Kawasaki
横浜港案内より 川崎港案内より
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The Science Behind Sea Level Rise
• IPCC projections show that by the end of the 21st century sea level could be Sea Level Rise and Port Levels between 0.18 and 0.59m higher than at present
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The Science Behind Sea Level Rise Raising of Port Levels (II) • Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009), argue that sea level rise could be in the range of 0.81 to 1.79m by 2100
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Raising of Port Levels
Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones
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Changing Weather Patterns Knowledge about future and typhoons (I)
• IPCC States that there is a general agreement that tropical cyclones • Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather are likely to increase in intensity, there is yet no consensus on the systems for breakwaters future frequency of these events. • Typhoons are believed to have a 30-40 year cycle
• One of the fears of global warming is that it could result in an • Strongest typhoons in Western Pacific history • Tip 870 mbar 1979 increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones due • Gary 872 mbar 1992 • Ivan 872 mbar 1997 to the warming of sea temperature (Knutson et al., 2010) • Joan 872 mbar 1997 • Keith 872 mbar 1997 • Zeb 872 mbar 1998 • June 875 mbar 1975 • Ida 877 mbar 1958 • However, it is difficult to conclude so far that any event has • Nora 877 mbar 1973 • Rita 878 mbar 1978 been influenced by climate change! • Yvette 878 mbar 1992 • Damrey 878 mbar 2000 • CANNOT SAY ANY EVENT UP TO NOW HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY 19 of 26 CLIMATE CHANGE (Katrina had nothing to do with climate change)
Knowledge about future and Knowledge about future and typhoons (II) typhoons (III)
• Damage is increasing, • Typhoon formation is influenced but we occupy more of by surface sea water temperature the planet each day. (0.7 degree increase during the 20th century)
• Simulations by Knutson and Tuleya (2004).
• Knutson et al. (2010) “Some increase in the mean maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones is likely (+2 to +11% globally) with projected twenty-first-century • Pielke et al. (2006) “Normalised Hurricane Damage in the United warming” States, 1900-2005” 22
Increased flooding due to Governing equations for storm surge (1)-(5) Storm Surges • Storm Surge: During the passage of a tropical cyclone sea level goes up due to 2 Level-model the drop in atmospheric pressure and wind forcing
• This can lead to flooding of coastal areas (Katrina in the US, Nargis in Myanmar, etc)
• This effect could increase in the future, and combined with sea level rise could exacerbate flooding potential
Myers’s formula for the pressure (6)
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TARGET TYPHOON
Effect of Climate Change on 1 in (Broken ship at Koutouku, Tokyo) 100 year typhoon in Tokyo Bay
(Broken river banks at Kounan, Niigata) (Broken river banks at Otsuka, Tokyo)
Taisho 6th year (1917) typhoon 30th September - 1st October (Ministry of transport, 2000) 25 of 26 (Broken station at Hatano, Kanagawa) (Broken house at Tsukishima, Tokyo)
Calculate the storm surge Taisho 6th year (1917) typhoon Damage (Worst storm in 100 years) height Target area Target typhoon Funabashi Observed storm surge at Toyosu Komatsugawa (Taisho 6th typhoon Shibaura 6 7 5 ― The worst typhoon to affect 4 Shinagawa to Tokyo Bay in 100 years) 3 Kawasaki 2 Sodegaura Yokohama Dead or missing 1,324 8 Wounded 2,022 Sumida River Futtsu 9 Flooded Edo River Completely 36,459 1 area destroyed houses Hard-hit Yokosuka area Half destroyed houses 21,274 Houses washed away 2,442 Tama River Flooded houses 302,917 (Flooded and hard-hit areas by Taisho typhoon) Flooded area 215km² (in Tokyo)
TARGET AREA Calculate the central typhoon pressure (from Yasuda et 5 6 7
4 Tokyo Bay 4.00E-02 al., 2010) 3 The simulation uses 2 a nesting approach 3.00E-02 8 under future 2.00E-02 climate condition 9 Sagami 1 1.00E-02 under present Bay No Place Prefecture climate condition 1 Yokosuka 0.00E+00 Small Area occurrence of Frequency (Grid size=1km) 2 Yokohama Kanagawa 890 910 930 950 970 990 1010 1030 1050 3 Kawasaki Central pressure(hPa) 4 Samezu Connecting Boundary 5 Shibaura Tokyo Compare the frequency of occurrence… 6 Toyosu Historical Central Pressure 952.7 hPa 7 Funabashi of Taisho 6th typhoon Large Area 8 Sodegaura Chiba Computational Central Pressure 933.9 hPa (Google) (Grid size=3km) 9 Futtsu
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Change in storm surge level Overtopping of coastal
Change the central pressure defences • What are the chances of the coastal defences around Tokyo Bay being 952.7hPa 933.9hPa overtopped by a 1 in 100 year storm? 1.3m 1.6m 1.2m 1.5m • Note: 0.8m 1.6m 1.1m 2.1m On top of storm surges 0.8m 1.1m Storm surge you also get the effect of waves!!! 0.7m 0.8m 1.0m 1.1m (we ignored this effect, however…) 0.9m 1.2m 0.6m 0.8m Flood defense
Tide level 0.2～0.5m higher
Bottom of the sea
Probability of overtopping at each point Estimate economic damage ・・・Kanagawa inner part ・・・Tokyo Reclaimed lands of bay Living population / 1km² ・・・Chiba according to the year of construction
Tokyo 100 entrance Tokyo area of bay area 80 3 6 Kanagawa 60 9 2 8 4 7 area 40 Kanagawa 1 5 area 20
Tokyo bay Probability of overtopping(%) Probability 0 10000~ 4500~10000 0 50 100 150 200 1200~4500 Sea level rise(cm) 300~1200 → The coastal protection should consider the risk of overtopping 20~300 not only an inner part of bay but also at the entrance of the bay.
Estimating economic damage Areas calculated behind the coastal defences Households ＋ Household articles Method Damage cost is calculated ＋ by each ward’s properties.
Offices Used a 5m mesh data to ＋ measure the inundation Kanagawa area Tokyo Farm/fishing households ＋ Calculated • We concentrated our analysis on 2 areas, Tokyo and Kanagawa, which the Public facilities properties/infrastructure concentrate most of the low lying areas that will be ldamaged • Three ports are located in the areas covered • Tokyo Total amount of damage • Yokohama • Kawasaki
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Inundation area The inundation area and economic damage and the amount of damage
Inundation area Inundation area 80 250 80 250 (Tokyo) Tokyo (Tokyo) Katsushika 70 70 100% Inundation area Adachi Inundation area 200 90% 200 60 (Kanagawa) 60 Arakawa (Kanagawa) 80% Kita 50 50 70% Sumida Tokyo 150 Amount of damage 150 Amount of damage for general assets 60% Taitou for general assets 40 (Tokyo) 40 50% Edogawa (Tokyo) 100 Amount of damage 40% 100Koutou Amount of damage 30 30 for general assets 30% Chuou for general assets (kanagawa) (kanagawa)
20% Chiyoda Inundation height (km²) height Inundation 20 (km²) height Inundation 20 Percentage of damage cost damage of Percentage Minato 50 Total amount of 10% 50 Total amount of damage (Tokyo) Shinagawa damage (Tokyo)
10 10 0% The amount of damage (trillionyen) damageamount of The The amount of damage (trillionyen) damageamount of The Kanagawa 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Ota 0 0 Total amount of 0 The elevation of storm surge height (m)0 Total amount of 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 damage (Kanagawa) 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 damage (Kanagawa) Elevation of storm surge height (m)+ SLR The elevation of storm surge height (m)
Estimating adaptation costs
Tokyo Yokohama port doesn’t have a coastal levee. (has breakwaters and jetties) Estimation of adaptation counter- Kanagawa Measure for Measure for measures coastal levee waterside land Raise the Build a Anti- Raise the height new one earthquake ground level Reinforcement Tokyo Tokyo port ○ ○ ○ ○ Kawasaki port ○ ○ ○ ○ Kanagawa Yokohama port × ○ ○ ○
39 of 26 • Waterside lands is the area outside the dykes… i.e. the port areas!
Raise the height of coastal levee Build a new coastal levee Unit cost Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2008) Unit cost Parapet 34942 yen/m³ Parapet 34,942 yen/m³ Sheet pile Drill 16260 yen (10m) Material 82200 yen
Tokyo Kawasaki Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama Length 45.9km 13.5km Length 22.0 km 13.5 km 21.4 km Height (storm surge) 3.5m 3.0m Height (T.P.) 4.5m 4.0 m 3.9m Cost (Unit: 億円 =100m yen) 5.85 2.27 Cost (Unit: 億円 60.13 36.33 57.89 =100m yen)
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Anti-earthquake reinforcement The Cost to Port Areas: Raising the ground Order program of Naka-river protection works (2012) level outside the levees Levee protection works Length 159.4 m Unit cost Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2008) of Naka-river Total Cost 7.06 Asphalt (30cm height) 5,194 yen/m² (at Katsushika) (100 million yen) Gravel (30cm height) 296 yen/m² includes the indirect cost
The areas that are selected according to the year of construction (before 1975)
Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama Tokyo Kawasaki Yokohama Area 11.9 km² 17.6 km² 8.5 km² Length 22.0 km 13.5 km 21.4 km Height (T.P.) 4.5 m 4.0 m 3.9 m Cost (Unit: 億円) 974.3 597.9 947.8 Cost (Unit: 億円) 195.11 677.37 345.24
Total costs (unit: 100 million yen) Discussion regarding costs Measure for Measure for Elevating Port Areas coastal levee waterside land ① ② ③ ④ (Unit: 億円 i.e. 100,000,000 yen) Raise the Build a Anti-earthquake Raise the height new one Reinforcement ground level Tokyo Tokyo port 195.11 Tokyo Tokyo port 5.85 60.13 974.34 195.11 Kawasaki port 677.97 Kanagawa Kawasaki port 2.27 36.33 597.89 677.97 Yokohama port 345.24 Kanagawa Yokohama port × 57.89 947.77 345.24 Cost: 億円 % Tokyo GDP Total cost (unit: 100 million yen) Tokyo 195 0.01% ①＋③＋④ ②＋③＋④ Kanagawa 1023 0.062 Tokyo 1175 1230 Kanagawa 2571 2663 •Nominal GDP Tokyo= 165 trillion yen •Total Damage worst case scenario = 80 trillion yen (48% GDP) Cost of construction : Tokyo ＜ Kanagawa •Total cost of all adaptation= 0.389 trillion yen (0.2% GDP)
Port Downtime
• Ports have to close when wind speed is too high, as it interferes with crane Port Downtime operations, etc
• Assumed that knots port operation will stop when wind speed is over 30 knots
• Note that while it might be possible to work a bit longer, there is also the issue of preparations for typhoon, etc.
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Increase in Port Downtime (I) Increase in Port Downtime (II) • All Japan will be affected by 30 knot winds for • If typhoons get stronger, longer periods in 2085 they also get bigger PRESENT DAY 2085 Knutson & Tuleya (2004) • We assumed that ports have to stop operating when winds re higher than 30 knots
• Carried out a Monte Carlo simulation of how many hours a port is likely to stay closed in future 49
Increase in Port Downtime (III) Increase in Port Downtime (IV)
70 50 knot no climate 160 60 change 140 50 50 knot climate Control Scenario 40 change 120 30 30 knot no climate 100 hours No. 20 change 10 80 30 knot climate 60 0 change Climate Change Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Sep Oct Dec 40 May Aug Nov (Scenario A)
Numberhoursof 20 Month 0 Expected hours that the Port of Naha will be affected by various winds for the control and climate change events Climate Change for each month of the year. (Scenario A) (Scenario B)
70 50 knot no climate 60 change 50 50 knot climate 40 change 30 30 knot no climate No. hours No. 20 change 10 30 knot climate Port Name 0 change
Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Sep Oct Dec May Aug Nov Month Expected hours that selected Japanese ports are affected by 30 knot winds for the Expected hours that the Port of Yokohama will be affected by various winds for the control and climate change control and climate change scenarios. 51 events for each month of the year. (Scenario A) 52
Relation between GDP and Extra required RPCS due to RPCS climate change (I) • Direct correlation between the natural logarithm • If port downtime increases, then port capacities must also be higher to deal with the bottlenecks of the Real Port Capital Stock (RPCS) and the created by this growth in Japanese GDP (Kawakami and Doi 2004). • Using the relationships in the previous slide 9.6 13.2 9.4 13.0 calculated what would be the extra investment 9.2 12.8 needed 9 12.6
8.8 yen 12.4 8.6 12.2
8.4 GDPtrillion (Ln) (Ln) trillion yen 12.0 • i.e. ports will need to be bigger in the future to Real PortReal Stock Capital 8.2 11.8 8 deal with increased uncertainty 1970 1980 1990 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Growth in RPCS in Japan, 1990 Prices in Growth in GDP in Japan, 1990 Prices in trillion trillion yen (Ln) yen (Ln) 54 of 26 53
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Extra required RPCS due to Conclusions climate change (II)
• 4 Scenarios, depending on rate of economic growth (1 or 2%) and the • Stronger tropical cyclones and sea level rise could lead to the relationship between maximum wind speed and typhoon area inundation of many port areas • 30.6 and 127.9 billion additional Yen required to be invested by the year 2085 • Failure to spend this money could reduce GDP by between 1.5 and 3.4% by 2085. • These port areas should be elevated in the future to cope with these effects 150 Scenario A1 • Breakwaters and other infrastructure should also be strenghthened 100 Scenario A2
50 Scenario B1 • Stronger tropical cyclones will also lead to increased downtime and (billion yen) bottlenecks in supply systems, unless extra port capacity is added PortCapital Stock 0 Scenario B2 Requiredadditional Real 1985 2035 2085 • Otherwise, loses could be substantial, not only for ports but major Year population centres around them
Thank you for your attention
Plus just in case here goes my email:
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