FAMILY POLICY in POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE and the FORMER SOVIET UNION: ASSESSING the IMPACT of XENOPHOBIA Marina A
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University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Political Science ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations 9-1-2015 FAMILY POLICY IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF XENOPHOBIA Marina A. Kingsbury Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Kingsbury, Marina A.. "FAMILY POLICY IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF XENOPHOBIA." (2015). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds/20 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Marina A. Kingsbury Candidate Political Science Department This dissertation is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication: Approved by the Dissertation Committee: William D. Stanley, Chairperson Wendy Hansen Deborah R. McFarlane Richard L. Wood i FAMILY POLICY IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF XENOPHOBIA by MARINA A. KINGSBURY Specialist, International Relations, Far Eastern State University, 2000 MPA, University of New Mexico, 2003 MA, Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2015 ii DEDICATION To my husband KC. Thank you for your patience, love, and support. To my wonderful children Ben, Alex, and Polina. You are my pride and joy. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I heartily acknowledge Dr. William D. Stanley, my advisor and dissertation chair, for his support and advice throughout the years of dissertation writing. I am grateful for his critical assessment of my writing and for pushing me to be my best. Above all, I am thankful for his support in my dual capacity as a mother and a graduate student. I also thank my committee members, Dr. Wendy Hansen, Dr. Deborah R. McFarlane, and Dr. Richard Wood, for their valuable comments on many drafts of this dissertation, their encouragement, and support in my professional development. Thank you for writing numerous support letters for funding applications and your accommodation of the long-distance completion of the dissertation. My gratitude is extended to the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico for funding my methodological training and to the anonymous donors who contribute to the Department’s scholarship fund. To my parents for believing in me. To Claire and KC Kingsbury for editing numerous drafts. Finally, my heartfelt gratitude goes to all the friends and family in the USA and Russia who supported, encouraged, and believed in me during the years of graduate school. iv FAMILY POLICY IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPE AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF XENOPHOBIA by Marina A. Kingsbury Specialist, International Relations, Far Eastern State University, 2000 MPA, University of New Mexico, 2003 M.A., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 Ph.D., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2015 ABSTRACT This dissertation emphasizes the comparative aspect of family policy, with a regional focus on post-communist Europe. Following the turmoil of transition, many social welfare programs were transformed and often scaled back. Family policies, however, were largely carried through the initial period of transformation, despite the economic difficulties and the dramatic decline in birth rates in a course of several years. This study was inspired by the seeming contradiction between falling birth rates and increasing generosity of family policy provisions across the former communist European countries. This dissertation uses original data, which includes levels of benefit provision as well as national political and economic characteristics, and views on immigration from 1990 to 2010. Contemporary scholarship emphasizes the gender equality aspect of family policies while understating the political and policy implications of the state’s goal of v maintaining stable populations. I address this shortcoming by assessing the interconnectedness of the family policies and fertility rates and by acknowledging the current rise of xenophobia that stems from the increasing transparency of borders. I utilize both quantitative and qualitative methodology to support my argument. Chapters 2 and 3 of the study present the time-series cross-sectional analysis of the demographic, socio-economic, political, and policy influences on fertility rates and family policies, respectively, in fourteen countries. Chapter 4 is a case-study of Russia, which hosts the largest share of immigrants in Europe and provides generous family benefits. My central argument – and finding – is that anti-immigrant sentiment is an important consideration for family policy considerations. I find that xenophobia is a meaningful predictor of family policy generosity in the CEE, especially in the countries where the proportion of foreign-born population exceeds five percent. I also find that party politics matters for the generosity of family policies. Despite conventional expectations, I find that Right parties have been more instrumental in increasing family policies in the CEE. I argue that family policies fit well within the conservative party policies of the traditional male breadwinner family model, which has replaced the former communist paradigm of full labor participation among men and women. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................. x LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................ 1 1. Determinants of Family Policies ............................................................. 2 2. Data and Methodology ........................................................................... 7 3. Chapters Outline .................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 2 POLICY AND ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN THE POST-COMMUNIST CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AND THE FORMER SOVIET UNION ..................................... 12 1. Introduction............................................................................................ 12 2. Theory and Background ......................................................................... 15 2.1 Why Fertility Rates Are Important ............................................ 15 2.2 Describing Fertility Rates in Central and Eastern Europe .......... 20 2.3 Demographic Transition Theories and Lowest-Low Fertility..... 21 2.4 Fertility Decline in CEE and the Role of Economic Recession .. 24 2.5 Policy Responses to Declining Fertility ..................................... 28 2.6 An Overview of Family Policies in CEE ................................... 30 3. Data, Variables, and Measurement ......................................................... 38 4. Empirical Analysis and Results .............................................................. 42 5. Conclusion ............................................................................................. 51 CHAPTER 3 FAMILY POLICY DETERMINANTS IN POST-COMMUNIST EUROPEAN SOCIETIES ....................................................................... 53 1. Introduction............................................................................................ 53 vii 2. Theory and Background ......................................................................... 56 2.1 Power Mobilization Theory ...................................................... 56 2.2 Gender and Politics Literature ................................................... 57 2.3 CEE Family Policies: Pronatalism, Post-Communism, and Nationalism.............................................................................. 58 3. Family Policies in CEE .......................................................................... 62 3.1 Maternity Leave and Parental Leave ......................................... 62 3.2 Family Policies and Social Citizenship Rights .......................... 65 3.3 The Impact of Women’s Representation ................................... 69 4. Party Politics and Family Policy Spending ............................................. 71 4.1 Left Parties and Social Spending in CEE .................................. 71 4.2 Right-wing Parties in CEE ........................................................ 74 5. Immigration and Xenophobia ................................................................. 79 5.1 Xenophobia .............................................................................. 79 5.2 Radical Right Parties ................................................................ 81 5.3 Declining Population ................................................................ 83 6. Model and Variables .............................................................................. 85 6.1 Variables .................................................................................. 85 6.2 Models...................................................................................... 90 6.3 Estimation Methods ................................................................