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Street Retail Segment, a Number of Retail Sectors Kept Disappearing from the Traditional Tenant Pool

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15 years on the Russian Retail Property Market RUSSIAN RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET REPORT 2013 HIGHLIGHTS Retail Property Market Report by MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV 2013 The year of 2013, especially the end of it, was marked by the lowered consumption rate among Russian consumers. Anticipation of a new crisis wave and negative predictions for the year of 2014 lead to a significant decrease in the consumer confidence index, shifting the focus of consumer behavior from buying to saving. Nevertheless, it is still too early to forecast negative trends for the market. There needs to be a more careful analysis of the trend data gathered in Q1–Q2 2014. In 2013 Moscow retail property market witnessed the unprecedentedly low amount of newly commissioned space with the unusually high amount of it planned for 2014. Provided that at least 50% of the space announced appears on the market in 2014, this will break the record of 2009. Last year Tashir Group of Companies became the most active developer on the capital's market with the two new shopping centers having become the largest openings of 2013. These amounted for 60% of the total GLA commissioned in 2013. Moscow retail property market demonstrates a clear cyclical pattern in the developer activity. Periods of recession - which usually last about 4 years - are followed by 1–2 years of active new retail space commission. Besides, for each new cycle the oscillatory amplitude grows larger. For example, after 4 years of stagnation and unprecedentedly low levels of new retail space development on the Moscow market (from 2005 till 2008), the next two years witnessed a burst of activity and record amounts of new retail space supply. From 2011 till 2013 there was a new recession, more serious than in 2005–2008. That was an all-time low. Meanwhile, according to the developers’ forecasts, the new surge in activity is going to outmatch the previous one. Last year 26 new international brands entered Moscow market. Interestingly, the brands already present in the market did not undertake aggressive expansion: they opened 2.3 times fewer stores in 2013 than in 2012. At the same time, brands that are newcomers to the Russian market opened a lot of stores in Moscow. In the street retail segment, a number of retail sectors kept disappearing from the traditional tenant pool. Home appliances and electronics sellers, children's goods stores, accessories stores, etc. prefer to open in shopping centers. In 2013 high activity in street retail was demonstrated by "food boutiques" combining the concepts of a cafe and a food store. In 2013 these "food boutiques" accounted for a half of the demand in the "food" profile. Examples include Le Pain Quotidien bakery cafes, Karavaev Brothers delicatessen shop, Wolkonsky bakeries. The city government activities aimed at creating a comfortable urban environment helped to develop specialization in the street retail segment. For example, in Kuznetsky Most Street and Nikolskaya Street, just as in Kamergersky Lany, with the creation of new pedestrian zones most of the tenants have become cafes and restaurants. Just like in the capital, retail property market in other regions of Russia did not see any significant amount of new retail space supply, with 2013 hitting the unprecedentedly low level in terms of growth rate. More retail space was added to the market in various Russian regions rather than in Moscow. In 2014 developers are planning to commission 1.5 times more retail space in regional cities than in 2013. Inspite of the relatively low amount of a new retail space supply, the geography is impressive: St. Petersburg, Syktyvkar, Krasnodar, Taganrog, Armavir, Irkutsk, Tyumen, Angarsk, Tobolsk, Kaliningrad, Ekaterinburg and others. Judging by the plans announced, developers are going to keep actively expanding in the Russian regions in 2014, with equally wide geographical coverage. RUSSIA Retail Property Market Report by MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV 2013 MARKET ENVIRONMENT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DYNAMICS, Q1 2012– Q4 2013 Crisis anticipation on the part of the consumers Period 0 In Q4 2013 researchers noted negative trends in the consumer sentiment index, with a growing anticipation of a new crisis wave. In December 2013 the consumer confidence Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 index hit the record low level since early 2012 and dropped 4 points in comparison with -2 Q3 2013 to reach the index of -11. According to Romir, in Q4 2013 decrease in the consumption rates was for the first time observed both in the food market and the -4 basic goods market. The forecasts for 2014 remain conservative. The Global Barometer of Hope and Despair -6 by the research center Gallup International outlines that people's expectations in Russia are far below the level predicted for 2013. Consumer confidence index by the -8 sociological marketing company Nielsen marks growth in people's negative expectations, their concern about the state of national economy and a large number of -10 respondents thinking that today is not the best time for making purchases. -12 High level of credit load Source: Rosstat According to the Bank of Russia, the number of credits issued to individuals has been growing during the last three years and has increased by 4 times since 2009, whereas DYNAMICS OF CONSUMER LOANS, 2009–2013 the relative loan delinquency rate has been decreasing. It is important to note that the growth rate of the population's disposal income, as measured by Rosstat, is significantly 10 000 10% 12% lower than that of the consumer lending (2.5%, according to the results of Q3 2013). 9 000 This means that the amount of money that remains after loan repayments and that can 9% 8 778 10% be used for purchasing basic goods will become increasingly lower in the mid-term 8 000 perspective. It can be expected that the consumption growth rates demonstrated by 7 000 6 480 8% the population will slow down. 6 000 6% 5% 5 000 5% 6% Real Estate Tax 4 772 4 000 % Another important factor of 2013 was the law on real estate tax which was passed in billion RUR 4% November 2013 and is in effect since January 1, 2014. According to the new federal 3 000 3 206 law, retail and office facilities and property of foreign organizations are taxed on the 2 000 2 334 basis of their cadastral value, if there is a corresponding regional law. As for now, laws 2% like this have been passed only in Moscow, the Moscow Region and the Amur Region. 1 000 By 2016 the tax rate in all regions of Russia will be 2%. This may result in a heavier 0 0% taxation with regard to owners of shopping centers, which may eventually lead to the 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 increased rental rates for tenants. Volume of consumer loans, billion RUR Past-due consumer loans, % Source: The Bank of Russia SHOPPING CENTERS | MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS | MOSCOW Retail Property Market Report by MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV 2013 MARKET HIGHLIGHTS At present, the level of retail market development in Moscow remains the highest MAIN INDICATORS OF RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN MOSCOW of all the subjects and cities of the Russian Federation. About 8% of the country's Moscow's share population and 17% of the total retail turnover is concentrated in Moscow. Indicators, end of 2013 Moscow Russia in the all-Russian figures About one third of the total space supply in quality shopping centers is located in Moscow. Besides, Moscow's retail space per person ratio exceeds by three times the Population, thousand people 11,979.5 143,300.0 8% Russian average and is 343 sq m GLA per 1,000 inhabitants. Retail turnover, bln rubles 4,017.0 23,668.4 17% In 2013, Moscow accounted only for 9% of all the new space supply. Nevertheless, % of the last year, % 103.5 103.9 - according to developers, in 2014 Moscow's share in the all-Russian high-quality retail Dining facilities turnover, bln space growth rate will increase by 4 times to reach 36%. This is because in 2013 no big 165 - - shopping centers were commissioned in Moscow, whereas for 2014 the opening of rubles three large objects has been announced, each exceeding 100,000 sq m of GLA. % of the last year, % 107.6 - - Total space supply in quality Moscow also maintains its leadership among the Russian cities in terms of shopping centers, thousand sq 4,114.2 14,780.4 28% attracting international brands. According to MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV, 94% of all the m GLA international brands that are present in Russia are represented in Moscow. Traditionally, new brands willing to enter the Russian market choose Moscow as their Quality retail space per person launch pad. ratio, sq m GLA per 1,000 343 103 3.33 people Quality retail space growth rate 125 1,350.9 9% per year, thousand sq m Quality retail space announced 971 2,709.8 36% to open in 2014, thousand sq m Number of international brands 400 427 94% (as of July 1, 2013) New international brands (Н2 22 27 85% 2012–Н1 2013) Source: Rosstat, MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV's own estimations SHOPPING CENTERS | MOSCOW Retail Property Market Report by MAGAZIN MAGAZINOV 2013 SUPPLY DYNAMICS OF LEASABLE SPACES COMMISSIONING IN MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS In 2013 the Moscow market witnessed the appearance of 6 quality shopping centers* 2006-2013 with the total leasable area of over 125,000 sq m, which is less than last year (169,000 600,0 sq m). Accordingly, the growth of the total quality space supply in the Moscow retail property market reached 3%.
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